This was a recent
birthday celebration in North Korea's
capital, Pyongyang. It was held in honor of
the country's founder, Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994. The festivities may
have appeared routine. But something,
someone, was missing. Kim Jong-un, North
Korea's ruler. Here he is at that same
celebration in past years. Kim's absence has led to
questions about his health and whereabouts. But details from the secretive
regime are hard to come by. "They have such control
over information. They are so good at
restricting access." So how do North
Korea watchers try to discern what's happening
during moments like this? We spoke to several
experts to understand some of the main techniques
that they rely on. Satellite images
are a key tool. Analysts use them to look
for changes or patterns that can help explain what might
be happening in the country and to track Kim
Jong-un's movements. Take the Central Party
Complex, for example, the regime's headquarters. "The Central Party
Complex is located right next to where they
have the military parades. In Pyongyang, it is called
North Korea's Forbidden City, because you cannot go there
without showing your ID. You've got to go through
four lines of security before you go in to
the actual building. But it is where all of
North Korea's top officials have residences." But from above, there are
ways around the secrecy. "You could tell
if Kim Jong-un is in the office based on
the guard deployments around the buildings. It's like when the president's
in the White House. You can see it. There's a state
security presence by the Secret Service." The complex also
includes Kim's reported personal
medical clinic. But in April, we
detected a change. The clinic had just been
demolished, making way for a much larger structure. It's the kind of visual
clue that analysts tend to keep a close eye on. If Kim Jong-un does
have health issues, there are other places experts
look to for indicators, like North Korea's most
elite hospital where the Kim family has its own wing. Analysts might look for
certain vehicles outside. Here's what a motorcade looks
like near one of Kim's homes. If this appears
near the hospital, it may mean he's there. "We would look at vehicles parked
outside of the hospital — outside of the entrance. They would, of course,
be parked very orderly. It would be very clean and neat.
And anywhere from six to 10 Mercedes Benz sedans. And then after that,
we would probably start to see what are
called ACVs, armored combat vehicles, and any other
deployment of Kim Jong-un's body guard units." Another area that
observers look at is this train
station in Wonsan, near one of Kim's
favorite homes. Recently, what is likely
his personal train was spotted parked nearby. [MUSIC PLAYING] If Kim's health was
of serious concern, or if the regime felt
its very survival was in immediate
danger, analysts may look to a compound
and surrounding area in the country's north. "This is where the Kim's and
the North Korean officials would travel and issue
commands and instructions. It is geographically isolated. It is a special district where
Kim Jong-un has his panic room and has a command
and control facility where he would be able to command
North Korea's armed forces in the event of an
invasion or in the event of an insurrection
against his leadership. And it also has the
value-added benefit of being so close to the North Korea- China border that he
could drive into China if they felt that the
emergency was that bad." If Kim were recovering
from an ailment, he might do it at this
residential compound. It's where Kim's
father, Kim Jong-il, made his first public
appearance at a soccer game after having a stroke in 2008. "It is located about
20 to 30 minutes from central Pyongyang. So that would allow him
to recover in privacy, and quietly. But if he needed
to go to Pyongyang to exercise his
authority or show his face at a political
meeting, it's a short drive." But satellite imagery
doesn't always provide a clear answer. "We also need to be
mindful of the fact that North Korea is very aware
that we are watching them from above. And so I have seen in the
past that North Korea uses that satellite imagery to
conceal what they're doing and to deflect what
they're doing." "Sometimes when
he's gone abroad, they will put the
guard deployments up there to make it
look like he's in there. He's not in there." Another area North
Korea watchers look to for clues about the regime
is state-run news outlets. Although the media treats
North Korean leaders as godlike figures,
experts say there are ways to tell
if Kim is in trouble. "If there's a major
crisis today, tomorrow, within a few days,
what we will see are very long
editorials or very long essays published in North
Korea's newspapers, which will talk about the virtues
of Kim family leadership. They won't refer directly
to Kim Jong-un necessarily. But they will
talk about virtues and trace those virtues back
to all three of the Kims." [CHOIR SINGING IN KOREAN] The presence or absence of
the ruler during major media spectacles may also
be a worrying sign, like in 2008 when Kim
Jong-un's father and then leader was due at a
major military parade to celebrate the
country's founding. "We're expecting then
leader Kim Jong-il to come out and wave,
salute the troops. So it was my
first day of work. I was watching this. And lo and behold, as the
camera scanned to the viewing platform, he wasn't there. And I cannot tell you,
that just sent shivers down my spine. We finally got intel
sources in Washington, D.C., to confirm that they believed
that Kim Jong-il had suffered a stroke several weeks earlier
in August and was in a coma." State television didn't
cover Kim Jong-il's ailments. "All they showed on state TV
was old documentary footage but no new images that have
been moving for months. North Korea never
acknowledged his illness — never." Finally, there is the tracking
of commercial and private flights. This website
shows flights over a typical 48-hour period. Notice how empty it
is over North Korea. Only about half a dozen
commercial airliners land in Pyongyang's
airport each day. So any unscheduled
flight should stand out. If Kim Jong-un
was severely ill, analysts may watch for
a specific type of flight arriving in Pyongyang. "I would look for
charter flights because if it was a
major medical procedure, there's a very high
chance that they would have retained
foreign physicians to do the procedure." North Korea watchers
have used flight tracking in the past for clues about
the ruler's intentions. In 2018, unscheduled
cargo plane flights were quickly spotted
leaving Pyongyang bound for Vladivostok, Russia. Both were believed to have
been involved in sanctions violations by the regime. None of these techniques
alone can provide a full picture of Kim's life. Analysts also heavily rely
on human and intelligence sources. And despite modern
technology and expertise, the regime still
manages to keep most of its internal affairs
away from prying eyes. [CHOIR HUMMING]
