In 1988, Isaac Asimov predicted that we would
all own computers connected to massive libraries and be able to access digital teachers and
reference materials on demand, allowing us to learn at our own pace, wherever we want,
about whatever we choose. So . . . basically this? [MUSIC] You know what's frustrating about tomorrow?
. . . that it's not today. That makes it very hard to predict. But that doesn't stop us from trying. And lots of our predictions about the science
of TOMORROW come in the form of science FICTION. Science SCIENCE is, for the most part, a historical
study, built on observations of things that have already happened. But science FICTION has a decidedly tomorrow-y
bent to it. Not all predictions are CORRECT, I mean you'd
have to be a pretty big bojo to think that we're actually going to have hoverboards by
October 21, 2015, but throughout the history of science fiction, people have gotten a lot
of things amazingly RIGHT. Like in 1865, Jules Verne predicted that the
US would send three men to the moon in a spaceship named Columbiad launched on a rocket weighing
20,000 pounds at a cost of 12.1 billion dollars. 104 years later, the U.S. sent three men to
the moon in a spaceship named Columbia on a rocket weighing 26,000 pounds at a cost
of 14.4 billion dollars. NOT BAD. Mark Twain, in his 1898 story "From the 'London
Times' of 1904" predicted a worldwide network of interconnected telephone devices that would
let people share information and he even predicted we would just waste time looking at what everyone
else was doing. He wasn't the only one to predict the internet. Douglas Adams wrote about a handheld device
that was the standard repository for all knowledge and wisdom in the galaxy, but that was in
1979, and the internet was already being built, so I don't know if it counts. But hey, you can read books on it! Arthur C. Clarke is also on the list of people
who predicted internet-type computer things [ARTHUR C CLARKE TALKING] but
his BOOKS got so many things right that you'd think he had access to some superior form
of artificial intelligence. "Siri can you open the pod bay doors please?" Today artificial intelligence has advanced
enough to win at Jeopardy, but so far no one has died from it . . . I think. Before Arthur C. Clarke wrote stories, he
worked on radar for the Royal Air Force. In 1945, he wrote an article describing "extra-terrestrial
relays", which essentially predicted AND laid out a plan for our entire modern system of
geostationary communications satellites. To this day, the particular altitude of space
that those satellites live is known as the "Clarke Orbit" In the 1911 story "Ralph 124C 41+", Hugo Gernsback,
the namesake of science fiction's annual "Hugo awards", predicted that an emitted radio wave
should reflect off distant objects and make them detectable like visible light, which
we call radar, something that wasn't invented until almost 25 years later. In 1961's "Stranger In A Strange Land" Robert
Heinlein predicted screensavers, although I'm not sure he knew we'd use flying toasters. In Fahrenheit 451, Ray Bradbury predicted
flatscreen television, as well as "seashells" and "thimble radios" worn in the ears which
I think we've all HEARD of. 50 years ago, during the 1964 world's fair,
Isaac Asimov predicted that in 2014 we would have some robots, but they wouldn't be very
good yet, that nuclear and solar power would replace fossil fuels, we'd have self-driving
cars, we'd have unmanned missions to Mars, and everyone would wear killer sideburns and
bolo ties Philip K. Dick is a decidedly more pessimistic
predictor of the future, but he was . . . RIGHT. Maybe it's not all sunshine and roses out
there. Minority Report's "Precogs" have been related
by some to modern efforts to use neuroscience in the courtroom. Total Recall-level memory implantation is
nowhere close to being real, but experiments in mice suggest that brain-to-brain neural
linkage is not complete fiction. Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep predicts
a world full of bio-inspired engineering and human-like artificial intelligence, while
A Scanner Darkly predicted a level of high-tech government surveillance that I think we all
WISH was fiction, but I love the NSA, the NSA is our friend. But nobody, NOBODY, holds a Nostradmus-y candle
to HG Wells. He, too predicted the iPad, oh AND automatic
sliding doors, in 1899's When The Sleeper Wakes. He predicted the atomic bomb, in scary detail,
including all of the radioactive fallout horror that it would bring, in 1914's "The World
Set Free", even down to some of the nuclear PHYSICS involved. He even called it an "atomic bomb" which was
not even a term that existed before that. In The Time Machine he predicted, well, the
time machine (although he didn't explain how it works, so maybe we shouldn't count that
one). The Shape of Things to Come predicted airborne
warfare. Men Like Gods saw wireless communications. War of the Worlds (SPOILERS) reminded us that
faced with man or even alien technology, bacteria will ALWAYS win. The Invisible Man used light refracting metamaterials
for invisibility nearly a century BEFORE we even knew what metamaterials were. In The Island of Doctor Moreau he not only
predicted genetic engineering, but asked a question that we still haven't answered: How
does man safely manipulate nature when he is PART of nature? HG Wells was so good, and so often correct,
about predicting the future, that he is called "the man who invented tomorrow". Or today. Of course, not all sci-fi is good at predicting
the future, and sci-fi gets lots of stuff wrong, but you have to admit that some of
these predictions are so spot on that you'd almost expect one of the authors to be from
Gallifrey. One right prediction in any one body of work
would be lucky, but this many right answers can't be luck. Clearly something sets these people apart. Many of the greatest sci-fi writers also had
serious scientific training. Isaac Asimov had a PhD in biochemistry. Arthur C. Clarke degree in math and physics. HG Wells had a degree in biology. Of course it also helps to hang out with people
like Carl Sagan. At its core, good science fiction must rest
on good SCIENCE. It seems obvious, but this, I think, is why
the best sci-fi authors are also the most frequently right when it comes to predicting
the future. How far can we see into the future? It depends on what we're looking for. Isaac Asimov said that when we look at stars,
or galaxies, or DNA we are looking at simple things, things that follow nice neat rules
and equations. But when we look at human history, it's chaotic,
it's unpredictable, our vision is limited. Science transforms the complex into the simple,
it's how we explain the chaos. Science is how we see farther, and science
fiction is where we write down what we see. I would like to know what YOU think down in
the comments. Why makes some science fiction SO GOOD at
predicting the future. And I PREDICT that I missed a TON of awesome
science fiction that has become reality, so PLEASE leave a comment and tell me what I
missed. Stay curious.
