What's at stake in Zimbabwe's upcoming elections? | Inside Story

zimbabweans will have their say in a general election in August their economy is in bad shape millions are struggling to survive so what are the promises being made by the two main candidates and will they deliver this is inside the story [Music] hello welcome to the program I'm Tom McRae unemployment poverty and a stagnant economy are a few of the core issues facing zimbabweans when they head to the polls in August Millions have found themselves caught in a wave of high inflation unable to afford the basics now add several other social issues including crime to the mix and you have a recipe for deep-seated voter dissatisfaction the two main candidates are expected to be 80 year old incumbent president Emerson umgagwa from the governing zenu PF party and his younger rival opposition leader Nelson Chamisa from the citizens Coalition for change so will they deliver on the Promises they're making to voters and what challenges will they face we'll put that to our guests in just a moment but first this report from Haru mutasa who is outside the high court in Harare the election season has officially begun in Zimbabwean candidates have filed their papers at the different nomination courts across the country those running for the presidency for them here at the high courts in the capital Harare the key thing on voted miles would be the economy and the High Cost of Living prices of basic Commodities are more than doubled in recent weeks there's high in employment that people are frustrated for opposition leaders they say that they're concerned about vote rigging and voter intimidation they allege that some of their supporters are being systematically targeted by members of the rulings parties denies these allegations so what's going to happen next the parties will have their various campaign rallies across the country the ruling design Affair party will launch its election Manifesto this weekend and other parties with the same in the coming days and the coming weeks the moment was involved on the 23rd of August if there's no outright winner then there will be a runoff people here are remembering what happened in 2018 when the main opposition either Nelson jamisa came very close to beating president Emerson PA party so you've been wanting to see will this be another tight race or will they be an outright winner haramutasa for Inside Story it's been a bumpy political road to where we are today in 1983 then prime minister Robert mugabe's forces were accused of killing thousands after crushing a rebellion in 2000 and 2001 his supporters took control of white-owned farms and handed them to the black population and their loyalists which eventually led to economic decline Mugabe won presidential election in 2008 which the opposition rejected as fraudulent he would then go on to win again in 2013. in November 2017 Mugabe was ousted and replaced by Emerson mangagwe and imonga defeated his rival Nelson Chamisa in the 2018 election thank you well let's bring in our guests now and Harare Evans misawei and Economist based in Zimbabwe's capital in Pretoria Piers pigu head of the southern Africa program at the institute for security studies which is a South African Think Tank also in Harare 10-day Ruben bofana political analyst and social commentator a warm welcome to all three of you thank you very much for being on inside the story Tinder if I can please begin with you how what is your take on the political political situation two months out from the election how much trust is there that these elections are going to be fair and free yeah thank you so much for inviting me to your program let me start on a very pessimistic note to say that so far the elections do not seem to be free at fair at all let us remember that an election is not an event it's a process so the this election that was headed towards in August started at the end of the previous election in 2018 and so for the past five years what we've seen has not been good does not all go well for a free very incredible election we have seen that the opposition has not been allowed to campaign freely um most of their rallies where they go out to campaign to the public they've been banned or banned most of the time they've not been given clearance by the police we have also seen that the Electoral commission itself there's been of late so many controversies surrounding the limitation of the boundaries that are used in constituencies for the election there's so much controversies surrounding that we find that in urban areas that are predominantly known as being opposition stronghold most of the some of the constituencies have been merged such that we call we consider that is Germany and that now the opposition is less likelihood of getting seats in urban areas well in rural areas which are known as The Goonies I looked at PF strongholds much more constituencies have been created so already we are seeing the unfairness the whole process we can even go on to the state-controlled media as as long as I remember the opposition has never been given Fair coverage in the state-controlled media it has been turned into a ruling party propaganda to all we are here are we here are reports on how the president is performing well how the Zano PF party is doing fundamental development and yet the opposition is hardly covered in the state-controlled bridge if anything if you are to hear anything about the opposition they're being labeled yes sell out straighters is apatriotic as people who have caused problems every considerable problem that we are faced in Zimbabwe is perceived as being the creation of the opposition supposedly working with foreign agents such as Western countries so you'll find you is we've also seen a lot of political violence especially in the past year or so with a lot of opposition supporters being beaten up we have heard reports of abductions of opposition members senior members including a parliamentarian woman who was allegedly abducted and with no one has been held accountable for that at the same time we have seen that um whenever the opposition has tried to to to to engage with the public with this membership most of their men meetings are raided by the police and some of their members are arrested and then of late of course we've heard of their jobs to color who's the vice chairman of the main opposition CCC who's been incarcerated without a trial for the past one year 12 months is being incarcerated there's no trial there's been denied bail repeatedly and and yet we are expecting there to be a free credible peaceful election as far as I'm concerned there is no way we can help we can ever label this election to be pretty incredible as long as these things okay that's a pretty pretty dire thank you very much that's a pretty dire um Outlook uh you're you're putting out there um Vince is that how the people in Zimbabwe view these elections as well are they that pessimistic well yes I mean today is quite right but what we have to understand too is the the process of Elections the architecture of elections in Zimbabwe has really not changed since 1980 uh you know the elections are runs as a military exercise the institutions around the elections are still the ones that are in charge of the processing of the office so the confidence levels are very low because you know because of the patronage system that we have here so yes I would agree with July on the school but obviously adding to that is the issue of the economy and that people are really struggling they're not looking forward to any elections because they're not expecting significant change so it's almost like oh listen let them get get it done and over with so we can carry on with our lives there's no major expectations of fundamental transformation or fundamental changes in the economy and in the social structure of the country so it really feels like the this is just going to be I guess progress as normal peers I want to come to you I mean Vince just touched on it briefly there how big it influences the military playing in these elections I mean are they basically pulling the strings behind the scenes here well I mean there's a good question Tom and and and of course the role of the military in Zimbabwean politics and economics is a uh an arena where there's much contested uh debate uh the there is clearly uh a growth since the coup in 2017 of military interest in terms of personnel uh being deployed into the economic sector and into areas of the administration and political sector this is not a clear-cut issue of men in uniform uh uh puppet mastering the politicians in front of them this is a a unique Zimbabwean version of military influence but there are very clear indicators that uh the military's political partisanship which they in in places in the past have articulated very clearly their partisanship towards the incumbents on EPF uh that the guarantees in the 20 13 Constitution about non-interference by the military and so forth I'll simply not worth the paper they're written on at this juncture I mean there isn't a clearer or clearer evidence of their involvement than the coup itself and then of course uh the fact that the vice president is the former Chief of the Defense Force and very senior members are there but as I said this does not uh necessarily mean these are the interests of the military per se but the interests of individuals in the leadership of the military or former senior caders who were in the military and redeployed elsewhere this is not about enriching the military as about enriching individuals associated with the military and associated with the ruling party so you're basically talking about corruption there aren't you I mean Tinder is that a big pervasive problem in Zimbabwe I guess how big a problem is it in Zimbabwe at this point in time especially around election time yes it's a it's a very big problem what is has been rightly stated before the military has been involved in our political space since Independence let's remember the history of this country it came through a Liberation struggle in armed Liberation struggle and this uh movements that we're fighting in the bush they were aligned to a political party the problem is that when we attend our independence instead of transforming these military wings so per se into professional a professional non-partisan military they remained aligned to the political movements of The Liberation struggle so you'll find that today it's not a surprise to find a military command openly we saw that during mugabe's time where military commanders would openly declare their support for the government and say we are not going to salute anyone who did not participate in The Liberation struggle so you also find that but there have been some papers you know Revelations Panama papers some of these Revelations where it's been exposed that some of the military not the military is already exactly pointed out not the military as an establishment but some individuals within the military we have some serious deep vested interest in our mining sector you know you know deep into the economy of the country so after the coup of 2017 you will find that they've got so much interest especially from the economic fund that any thoughts of a change of leadership a change of government which might bring accountability which can ruin their economic flows that they've sank deep in the economy of the country is is inconceivable they will never they cannot imagine that so you'll find that the military finds comfort in this status quo remaining Executives so they'll protect whoever is there but if they were to find someone who is there in power today not going along with their interests we don't know what could happen it's just an assumption we don't know we don't even know how Gabe was removed why was he removed what really was going on behind the scene why did the military started to turn around against the person that they've been protecting for the past three decades nearly four decades why what happened why did they turn against it so we'll see that there are some questions that need to be probed into and saying what are the interests of the military in all of this and what is it that they stand for and what is it that they will not tolerate so if this is you find that the the the regime that is currently empowered rather be in good books and place their lawyer their confidence since the military protecting their their grasp on power their grip on power than the majority that they vote at the elections so you find that I do not seriously I do not believe that the current government is looking at the winning and election Only They will also want the military to guarantee that in case anything happens that means the military will be there to protect you okay I want to talk about the economy for a minute because obviously that is a huge issue possibly the biggest issue facing Zimbabwe at this point in time Vince can you just as The Economist on the show today can you can you just give us an idea of how dire it is at this point in time and what you think needs to be done to try and fix it especially when it comes to inflation yeah okay you need to just you know I don't think anything can be done in the short term because we've got structural issues then you've got psychological issues let me talk first about the structural issues Zimbabwe is economy uh if you look at some of the earnings that are coming into the country is a monopolistic economy where you've got big corporates that are basically in the formal sector in the mining in agriculture sector and Retail sector and then they are contributing about 30 percent of GDP then you've got 70 of GDP coming from the informal sector that is highly unregulated and subsistence so when it comes to actually Economic Policy what is happening is that as we saw for example last week when the Minister of Finance came up with various policymages they just don't work because the informal sector is immune or maybe it doesn't do not recognize formal policy they operate on the ground on a day-to-day basis so the governor Reserve Bank and the minister and policy makers are facing a significant challenge in that formal economic policy is not working in Zimbabwe for example you increase interest rates and maybe the formal sector stopped borrowing but they still manage circulating in the formal economy the the the the estimates are that for example they contributed about six percent of GTP just informal economy and and so that is the structure where the former economy is very focused on currency where either way they are trading with the US dollar they prefer the US dollar you know we always argue that they've actually got a right and and what is happening is that when the government issues local money that money finds itself to be parallel Market because no one is really interested in the US dollar so there's an argument do we dollarize the economy or do we leave it as it is the currency and in my opinion as long as we leave this economy in more currency we are always going to have inflation because people will prepare US Dollars and they're prepared to buy US dollars at any price which of course increases the price of goods and services so that's on the money side they've got issues such as a very low employment level you know a dilapidating infrastructure when it comes to actually providing social services such as health and education and we basically have uh what I call a patronage economy uh where for example you have to be aligned with the political party in order for you to access opportunities which is crowding out a lot of entrepreneurs and a lot of people elevate a lot of migration outside people who have gone outside the country in disgust because they're not able to explore the opportunities in the country then obviously go to the issue of corruption which which is a serious issue that everybody feels is not being addressed adequately there have been stories that have come out including the broad Market issue and it seems that the government has not actually done much but actually you know making sure so that they actually apprehend the people involved and actually address corruption seriously so those are the issues that continue to actually worry a lot of people here and in my opinion that is not going to change overnight because we now have a psychological issue where the value system or the you know people are used to actually cutting Corners the informal sector is unregulated people don't pay their taxes people want to make as much profit as possible everybody is profiteering is looking after their interest so we don't have a kind of structured Way Forward you say listen this is what we want to achieve in the long term right um peers we've insists outlined a long list of very very serious issues uh and obviously things are going to remain the same or get even worse in in the short to mid term I mean how long before people band together and actually rise up against the government and demand real change do you think that that is a possibility um well yes and and I'm sure Vince could add a whole raft of other issues uh to to that list and what this means for the miserization of of most zimbabweans at the moment um what we've seen uh uh for a number of reasons is that the zimbabweans uh have tended not to uh protest on the streets uh when they have they've been met with brutality and we saw that earlier on in the uh current government's uh uh tenure uh well just after the elections and then again in January uh 2019 when uh live ammunition was used for the first time in in Zimbabwe in the crowd to deal with protesters uh I I think you know Zimbabwe is driven by what I call the politics of survival and opportunism and and survival uh is is a key tenet for many people they will look for options what that has meant for many is to leave the country uh and of course we see the the politics of of of of diaspora uh Dynamics playing out in different parts of the world uh I expect uh if the situation as we see in terms of its current trajectory doesn't ameliorate uh or start to turn the corner uh then we will see more people leaving Zimbabwe were attempting to do so and that means more people in South Africa which of course is a a heavily politicized issue at the moment uh considering uh the elections coming next year in South Africa where uh foreign the presence of a large number of foreigners uh has become a weaponized issue in domestic politics here so so yeah the the the forecast is is not pretty uh at the moment uh and unless we see some serious opportunity for a stabilization of the situation in Zimbabwe which really does require dealing with as Vincent has said the structural Dynamics but also psychological Dynamics we will not see a turnaround apologies for load shedding no uh obviously not everyone can leave Zimbabwe though um I mean last month the new law was introduced that Outlaws criticism of the government dubbed the Patriotic bill it contains a clause that uh says willfully damaging the sovereignty and national interests of Zimbabwe as a criminal act 10 day what has been the reaction from the people to that bill it's been at a shock it's been shock shocking to say the least of course we expected this we saw this coming they've been talking about this patriotic deal for a long time now uh threatening uh mainly opposition uh activists and of course non-governmental organizations that are perceived to be telling the world the truth about what is happening in the country so the major problem is that or that bill is that how do you define national interests that's a problem now in a country where national interests are defined by a leader or a ruling party it becomes a problem I can come here on Al Jazeera and say in Zimbabwe there are no radiotherapy machines in our hospitals and they said you are telling the world you're disparaging your country you're tarnishing the image of your country who knows if the Patriotic Bill had been enacted by now maybe they would have been charged for for having the are you at risk I mean once it is brought into law are you at risk of not being able to speak out like you're like you have been doing over the last 20 minutes or so definitely most definitely a lot of zimbabans will be at least because let's let's look at the Disco here I'm talking directly to an international media um media channel media Outlet already it says it will be perceived as if I'm tarnishing in the image of the country to the International Community so I'm violating possibly violating the Patriotic act then we have today so nowadays we have the world where anyone can be on on Twitter on social media so anyone who posts anything that can be read made somewhere across the world you are at risk how do we Define talking to the International Community you can be at home and you post something on Twitter you are talking to the International Community so you are at risk of being accused of of tarnishing the image of the country or harming its national interests so it becomes tricky we look at ngos most non-governmental organizations in Zimbabwe communicate with embassies that are based here foreign embassies that are based here so if you are going to enact a law which which bars Zimbabwe Nationals Zimbabwe a citizen from communicating or having meetings with officials or agents or foreign governments so any benefit to go to to an embassy today in Harare to the Swedish Embassy the American Embassy whichever British Embassy and we just talk about this issues that are happening in the country I can be accused under the Patriotic acts of having violated but in talking to an agent of the foreign government and harming our country's national interests so yes we are at least because of this law and a lot of people now you find we have self-censorship you invite someone to participate in a program like this and they say uh my mind I might not end up having a good night I might end up sleeping again they're just using that who is to fear in the population okay appears I can see you're itching to jump in there do you want to respond to that yeah I mean I I I agree to a certain extent with what tendai is saying and I think that there will be a chilling effect from uh this legislation if indeed the president signs it into law it's sitting there along with the private voluntary organization's Amendment act which also needs to be signed which is another law that appears to be a compressing Civic space as well I think it's important to remember the way that laws are employed in Zimbabwe in certain instances is often selective they weaponize for particular purposes and I think this is the fear that many people have that whilst it's unlikely uh the law would pass constitutional muster but of course there are questions about capture of the Constitutional Court the question is will it be employed or will it be used as a kind of sort of Damocles over the head of civil society and I think given the beat that Civil Society has had oh and opposition over the last 20 years or so that what has been referred to by some opposition leaders is the Harvest of fear continues to reap rewards for this kind of practice okay we've just got a minute or two left and so I want to finish with you I mean is it inevitable that this election will end up being disputed and that violence will inevitably follow do you think sorry I mean I think we have we have seen less activity here towards elections currently uh so I don't think uh there's going to be as much violence as before but my fear is that there might be contestation of the results after and then we have a long drawn-out situation where you know we don't have things sorted out the post-election uh that is the fear you know hopefully the the results are clearly cut because you see uh as long as we create that lack of kind of clarity a lack of confidence with everybody's pocket regarding getting the economy going so hopefully it's resolved and we don't have a drawn out issue and people can get back to their lives of trying to make it ends meet that's to me is more important you know than anything else indeed thank you so much uh thank you to all three of our guests Vince musayway 10-day Ruben bafana and Piers Pico thank you very much for being on Inside Story and thank you two for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website Al jazeera.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com forward slash AJ Inside Story you can also join the conversation on Twitter our handle is at AJ inside story from me Tom McRae and the entire team here in Doha bye for now [Music]

Channel: Al Jazeera English

Views: 179,139

Keywords: Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera English, Zimbabwe general election 2023, Zimbabwe politics, africa, african news, africanews, al Jazeera, al jazeera English, al jazeera live, al jazeera video, aljazeera English, aljazeera latest, aljazeera live, aljazeera live news, aljazeera news, emmerson mnangagwa, nelson chamisa, zimbabwe, zimbabwe election, zimbabwe news, zimbabwe president, zimbabwe supreme court

Id: Mbu3s4X8YWA

Length: 27min 50sec (1670 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 21 2023