What Will Europe Look Like In 2025?

if the uk begins its dissolution gibraltar could begin seeking for independence as a micro state in the style of monaco or andorra venice might reignite its desire for independence a place where in 2014 2.1 million people voted for secession in an unofficial referendum in 2017 the european union outlined five scenarios for the future of europe in the following years and decades the five options were carrying on nothing but the single market those who want to do more doing less more efficiently and doing much more together the first option meant going on as we are two meant rolling back the process of european unity and common sovereignty and other two meant moving further towards a more unified and cooperative europe now this was not one of the options included in these five but there are some defenders of a more federalized europe sort of a united european states where a stronger central government would exist and each country would become not its own country as they are now but a single state of that very large country they're doing much more together option could to a certain extent be interpreted as opening up that possibility in a situation like that each country could become a state but as time went on new states might arise from within to facilitate regional administration we could end up with a united european state a ues that looked something like this map in which each color is a state this is just a random map i found on reddit so the divisions might not make sense but you get the idea in a federalized model at a european scale certain countries might be too big and it could make sense to further separate them france could be split into three germany into four poland and italy in two as well and spain into its autonomous communities amongst others this would never happen by 2025 but i feel like the next five years are going to be key in defining which of these models europe is effectively going to follow and how that choice will mark the future of the continent leading us to think how this new european map might look like speaking of thinking you know what helps us think reading which brings us to the sponsor of today's video blinkist a lot of times i get ideas for my videos from specific books about history or maps but i notice an issue a lot of times i don't feel like i have time or patience to read well blinkist offers a solution for that blinkist has a selection of a virtually infinite amount of books but you don't need to read them entirely they do an amazing work of condensing the key points and most important substance of each book so you can get the essential of any non-fiction work in and about 15-minute read or listen and if you don't want to take it from me take it from the 14 million people who actively use their app i'm using it myself to read this great book 21 lessons for the 21st century by yuval arari and the first 100 people to go to blinkist.com general knowledge are going to get free access for a week which you can cancel at any time and you'll also get 25 off if you decide you want the full membership if you want to help yourself by learning more and in an easier way and if you want to help out the channel try out blinkist through the link in the description now back to the video as countries could be separated into more than one state some of these new states could be equivalent to certain independence movements that exist this way not only would local administration be easier but these calls for independence might be silenced as some degree of autonomy would be granted and it would no longer be a scenario of ex-province being ruled over by why country it would be a set of many many provinces as states being ruled together by a central european government obviously this might have the opposite effect as well and have certain countries want to leave the union due to a refusal to give up more of their sovereignty so the effect of trying to move towards this idea might have the opposite result of leading us to less union forcing the following of option b nothing but a single market or at most option a carrying on as we are and this brings up an interesting question the european union started off 2021 with the united kingdom finally leaving even if just the current model is maintained how will it go forward from here will more countries leave and will new ones join first about possible new exits there's a few parties throughout european countries that defend leaving the eu but they are usually extremist and don't have much popular support furthermore whether you support it or not brexit was such a confusing mess and still presents us so much uncertainty that i doubt that within the next 5-10 years we'll see any other country wanting to venture out on their own at least until they can tell how the uk will effectively do on their own unless something dramatic happened like with the 2012 crisis that led to greece internally discussing a possible brexit but what about new countries joining i'll make a full video on this soon but i want to quickly mention it here with the uk leaving the european union now has 27 members the ones represented in green on this map other than the uk there are a few gaps on the map that call our attention switzerland is right in the middle but due to its neutral history i doubt it would ever join plus in 2001 they held a referendum on starting negotiations to join and no one with 76.8 percent norway could but there's the issue of their natural resources and so i would find them unlikely to do so at least in the short term but maybe one day when the oil runs out the other main area are the balkans many have already joined like greece bulgaria croatia and romania but several countries are still left out bosnia serbia albania north macedonia and kosovo with its special status and it's in fact in the balkans that future eu expansion likely lies there are currently five recognized candidates for membership of the european union turkey north macedonia albania and serbia and all have started as session negotiations which include the abiding of certain eu principles and rules some process keep moving forward towards a foreseeable entry expected to join from 2022 onwards but with 2025 being a more likely date for the eu to reach 29 members but other candidates have sadly taken steps back like turkey which now is incredibly unlikely to join the eu and who else could join there's the issue of microstates andorra leichenstein monaco san marino and the vatican city which aren't official members but are de facto members as they take part in the eurozone using euro as its currency with the exception of leichenstein where the swiss franc is used also having open borders with their neighbor countries of spain france and italy which makes them part of the free movement agreements of the eu therefore removing the need for officially joining there are a few other states regarding which enlargement has been discussed but whose request to join could take place the eu rules state that any european country that is a democracy can apply to join the union but a few non-fully european nations have been discussed as possible members places in which according to polls at least part of the population would want to join the caucasus region is a good example armenia's poll indicates 40 wanting to join georgia is even bigger at 83 percent further north belarus is 42 percent in favor but likely does not fulfill the full democracy requirement moldova crosses the halfway line with 56 percent and ukraine even more with 68 but others do not seem interested in iceland only 26 percent say they were in favor of joining and in norway the number is even smaller at 16 and then we have another issue which at least for now only applies to one country rejoining i would say this is completely impossible in the short medium term it took so long for the uk to finally leave that now beginning a process to rejoin would be absolutely ridiculous a 2020 poll shows that 49 of people would support it however still not a majority but another question arises from this example in which we can expand to other countries what about internal enlargements this no longer applies with the uk as they left but if scotland achieves independence it may on its own begin a process of joining the eu as scottish leaders have said they will do northern ireland may also eventually vote for unity with the republic of ireland making them join the eu automatically without the need for an application process the european council has already certified this possibility as well as with moldova and possibly joining romania and therefore the eu as they say it is consistent with what happened with east germany when it was incorporated in the federal republic of germany who was already a member the secession by scotland and northern ireland would leave the uk reduced to england and wales and other current members of the union might have similar situations in spain catalonia continues to seek independence and should they achieve it other spanish regions might want to follow like galicia and the basque country wanting to assert their independence but also wanting to take part in the big picture european project now i'm not taking any sides here but the united nations does agree with the right of self-determination so those who fight for separatism and independence might eventually be able to get their way however they would have to begin the joining process from scratch recently now former president of the european commission jen claude juncker said if there were to be a yes vote in favor of catalan independence then we will respect that opinion but catalonia will not be able to be an eu member on the day after such a vote and new candidates need a unanimous vote from current members so spain could veto it to discourage further separatism from its regions this doesn't make new countries less likely to appear in spain or anywhere else but it might mean that they will not join the eu at least not right away in belgium there is also an active movement for flemish independence in this case belgium could cease to exist and rename itself as valonia effectively dividing the two nations in half or as some have stated flanders and velonia could become two new countries and brussels become a microstate of its own sort of as a federal district for a european capital like washington dc or brasilia flanders would have to apply to rejoin or unite with the netherlands as some defend and join automatically france could perhaps see corsica leave for independence or to join italy and the southern island of sardinia might also fight for independence where in 2014 the pro-independence parties put together got around one quarter of the votes and while most of these are just hypotheticals and highly unlikely whether they would do it with the aim of joining the eu or not we could see some new countries arise in europe in the following years or decades and these are movements that have either already begun or might begin over the next 5 years if the uk begins its dissolution gibraltar could begin seeking for independence as a micro state in the style of monaco or andorra venice might reignite its desire for independence a place where in 2014 2.1 million people voted for secession in an unofficial referendum as greenland moves closer and closer to independence the pharaoh islands and other danish dependents might feel tempted to follow their example britain's small independence movement might be successful and fully separate from france and if bavaria conquered their full autonomy maybe other german states could follow like their western neighbor of baaten wutenberg i would say these french and german ones are the most unlikely of all due to small popular support and the fact germany is already a federal state with great regional autonomy crimea might truly become its own nation the russian exclave in poland might somehow achieve independence and transnistria might finally become an official country after their de facto control of some moldovan lands in the opposite direction we might see some regional unions take place especially if the eu begins to falter in its purpose and functioning the benelux could become an actual political union kosovo could join with albania amongst other possibilities essentially the possibilities aren't endless but they are vast when it comes to europe's geopolitical future both in and or out of the european union if europe's future is unity that unity can be achieved through the current model with the same or more new countries or in federalism with a complete reorganization of european territory and sovereignty if europe's future is individual nations war independence movements might have their way and europe might become an even greater mosaic of countries who may or may not choose to come together following one of the five scenarios we saw are possible at the beginning of the video the eu might have discussed those five scenarios in 2017 but to be honest not much seems to have changed from then until now and i believe it will be over the next 5 years until 2025 that the future of europe will begin to take shape and by then we might see an entirely different continent or at least the beginning of a significant change when french foreign minister robert schumann presented the schumann declaration in 1950 proposing the creation of a european coal and steel community paving the way for european unity he stated europe will not be made all at once or according to a single plan it will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity which more achievements europe will together achieve and which countries will take part in them is a question we cannot answer but be it through federalism a regular union a simple single market or through individual agreements between the countries we know today or others which may soon be created all we can hope is that the path set by europe's founding fathers in 1950 continues to be followed and together in whatever way and whatever number europe can work as a group as one giant democracy fighting for mutual development tolerance freedom and peace and that was a brief overview at the hypothetical scenarios which might over the next five years start taking shape and how europe might begin to look different as we reach 2025 and decades that will follow thanks so much for watching this video subscribe if you want and leave a comment below with your opinions do you think federalism is a good idea or should the eu be reduced to a single market should more country subdivisions take place and the new countries founded according to the will of local people and should those nations join a union with the rest i will see you next time for more general knowledge

Channel: General Knowledge

Views: 534,628

Rating: 4.7258821 out of 5

Keywords: generalknowledge, funwithflags, countriesthatdon'texist

Id: 4aV8zeqgnoo

Length: 14min 38sec (878 seconds)

Published: Fri Jan 08 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/Fire99xyz]

As someone from Bavaria I unless Germany suddenly goes down the drain highly doubt Bavaria leaving any time soon. There are a few disgruntled mostly old conservatives who want Bavaria to become independent but the party gets something in the 1-5% range. Scotland and Catalonia on the other hand I could see becoming independent.

[u/Antonius_Eymerich]

I do not think Veneto is going to declare independence anytyme soon but ok

[u/Giallo555]

This video is inaccurate.

The name of the region is Veneto and not Venice, trust me I know I'm from there. The numbers reported by the organizer of the online referendum were never proven but most checking bodies confirmed that the numbers were not only inaccurate, but they were also downright false. The initial number released by the organizers was higher than the numbers of people eligible to vote. The number you have given would be around 60/70 percent of the voting population. However, according to the internet traffic data visible to everyone from the website, the number of views was around 135,000, 3,6% of the voting population of Veneto, what is more, important a significant proportion of this was not from Veneto or the rest of Italy, but Santiago, Chile and other South America countries.

To give you an example of how the referendum was perceived in Veneto I will tell you something that happened to me. A friend once came to class saying: "finally the government makes us vote on autonomy", no one knew anything about it, so we asked what was she talking about, in a group of 6 friends she was the only one that seemed to know about or had voted, she showed the website, and I told her that was not a request autonomy but independence, to which she laughed, and proceed to not believe me. I also came home and voted, for the lols( if I remember correctly I voted 2 times, but I'm not as sure about this), and I don't remember the website having any checking or confirmation of identity.

If someone cares to know the actual number of people pro-secession and independence in Veneto it is here (http://www.demos.it/a01301.php). The people that want a separate Venetan state are a minority (between 4% or 9% of the people interviewed). What most people want is more autonomy.

This is from Ilvo Diamanti One of the best pollsters we have in Veneto. When asked if Venetans want "independence", around 48 were favourable, however when asked what the word independence means, 52 percent said it meant being autonomous in the style of Trentino-Alto Adige, other said it meant being in a federal Italy and the minority 12 % said it meant being actually independent so in a separate state. Of the 48% that said the were in favour of independence 9% described independence has being a separate state, 9% of 48 should be around 4% of the population

From the way dear Ilvo phrased his numbers I struggle to know what he means, ( the guy is a good pollster but a notoriously bad writer). He reports that of the people that say they want independence just 9% want actual independence ( a separate state). I'm not sure if he means 9% of 48% or 9% of the total. Anyway I think both are actually high but certainly less than 60% or 70% percent as reported from the video. Se qualcuno che parla italiano mi puo aiutare a capire cosa intenda Diamanti sarei grata XD.

It is all and nice to spread federalism, but could we in the meantime not spread misinformation. ;)

P.S: also the one you used is not the flag of Veneto, but Venice, you might not believe this but there is a difference, Venice had always been a left-leaning city in a sea of green-blu, while separatism has always been a mostly right-leaning issue in Veneto, as is highlighted by the statistics I shared too, they never voted for the lega. Even now that Brugnaro is right-leaning he is not part of the lega Nord.

Edit: would you call Lombardy Milan? Would you call Tuscany Florence? Why do it with Veneto, it has a name.

[u/oriolopocholo]

I don't know how Catalan and Scottish independentism is opposed to federalism as they have repeatedly shown that they are extremely pro European integration

[u/European2002]

Sicily, sardinia, veneto, padania, one United tirol in a federation

[u/golf_war]

Amazing stuff! More more more

[u/NobleAzorean]

Maybe the independence of those regions is a path to Federalism, or its a torn in the foot for federalism, i am in the opinion (inside the EU) to leave things as they are, but stronger autonomy to some. Autonomy inside the "future" federal "state/country".