What to Do With Families of Islamic State Foreign Fighters

good afternoon everybody and welcome to the Washington Institute for neary's policy I'm Matt Levitt director of the Reinhard program on counterterrorism and intelligence and the former Wexler senior fellow here and I'm really thrilled and pleased and honored to be sitting here with my colleague Dr Dora margolin and to have with us virtually Dr Austin doctor and Martin Ware Austin is the director of the counterterrorism research initiatives at the national counter terrorism innovation technology and education center that's in sight and an assistant professor of political science at University of Nebraska at Omaha uh devorah is the blumenstein rose and Blue Buffalo here at the Washington Institute in the counterterrorism program and an Adjunct professor at Georgetown University her research focused was primarily on terrorism governance propaganda and strategic Communications and the role of women in gender and violent extremism together the two of them are among the authors of this uh fabulous study reintegration of foreign terrorist fighter families a framework of best practices for the United States which was published by insight and we're thrilled to have with us Martin Ware a career Diplomat in Britain's foreign Commonwealth and development office where he heads the counter daesh Communications cell he's a specialist in counter-terrorism and other security security related matters he's been posted to Saudi Arabia to Portugal to Spain and other various Gulf States and most recently in Northern Iraq and Kurdistan as the consul General and I'm thrilled to have you all here today for a conversation about what to do with the families of Islamic State foreign Fighters we have the opportunity today to hear from our experts and then engage them in conversation for those of you who are joining us via the zoom you'll be able to ask questions via the Q a button in the bottom middle of your screen those of you who are watching the event on the live stream will be able to ask questions by sending us your question via email at the email address policy Forum at washingtoninstitute.org that's policy Forum one word at Washington Institute one word dot o r g so with no further Ado I'd like to turn it over to the three of you let's start with Martin and then go to Austin and end uh with devorah and then we'll go to our q a thank you all in advance for taking the time to do this Martin the floor is yours uh Matt thank you very much indeed and hello to everybody from uh from King Charles Street in London um first another thank you to the Washington Institute for this this opportunity to contribute to what is really a very important debate about the repatriation of families Associates associated with daesh I'm going to give a brief description of the coalition's position and work on repatriation and I am of course then very happy to join Austin and Dev to answer the difficult questions that will come our way um can I start by explaining who I am and who I'm not so there's no confusion about the status of what I'm about to stay say um as Matt has just said I'm the head of the counter-dash communication sale base here uh in London in the Forum Commonwealth and development office the UK is a co-lead of the uh coalition's Communications working group and we have a dedicated team of Specialists here um conducting all of the coalition's civilian Communications we also work very closely with the our military colleagues to ensure that we're in sync we run Communications campaigns to counter daishes propaganda to support local communities vulnerable to that propaganda and to maintain the cohesion and the momentum of the Coalition the Coalition of the of the voluntary so it's very important that we actively consciously maintain that body our main work remains in Iraq and Syria but we are also expanding into West Africa and Afghanistan given that I'm afraid daesh has done just that we act as the voice of the Coalition um at Key moments such as the loss of a daesh leader of which there seems to have been quite a few quite recently I'm pleased to say but also sadly when a terrorist attack takes place so we are the mouthpiece at that point but the Coalition as such does not have a spokesperson um and I'm not speaking in that capacity today just to emphasize what I'm not as well as what I am uh I'll be describing what the Coalition is doing more than offering an official position for public consumption I hope yeah I I hope everybody can spot the distinction there I hope that's fine um so the first thing I want to say is that the Coalition thinks resolving the position of the the circumstances of the thousands tens of thousands of women and children associated with daesh who are in the camps in Northeast Syria is an absolute priority daesh is down but it is not out in Syria and Iraq it does not hold territory in our country but it does hold sway it does influence and it's that sway or influence that matters when we talk of the women and children in the camps um the humanitarian circumstances of those residents and the camps especially uh alcohol are poor there are all sorts of ways to describe it I was there quite recently they are really very poor camps are not built for the 50 000 plus people who are there at the moment uh and they've not been upgraded to cope with that number um I think if I'd say the situation of the children in those camps is especially worrying um they get no education of the sort that we would understand indeed their principal Educators I'm afraid to say are probably uh daesh security of the camps for the residents themselves and that communities close by is is pretty inadequate it's getting better but it's still not good enough we know that dice operates in the camps uh including in our Raj in its usual murderous abusive and intimidating way I had some first-hand evidence of that while I was there quite recently and we know that it uses the campus as a tool to radicalize and recruit as sustained support from its supporters um so we like all are especially worried about the potentially radicalizing effect of all of this on the children in the camps in short uh we feel that if the threat from daesh is to be contained long term not just militarily but psychologically the circumstances of those in the camps need to be addressed so the Coalition thinks it's crucial that the humanitarian security reasons for humanitarian and security reasons that the size of these camps be reduced as much as possible and as quickly as possible realistically they're not going to be um they're not going to disappear there will always be a core probably of 10 to 15 000 who will not be able to be repatriated or or managed in some fashion but the more we can get down to that sort of figure through repatriation perhaps above all the better that's why the Coalition under UK and U.S leadership brought as many of the key actors together as possible for the first time to discuss exactly how we would do this at a special meeting in Amman late last year military political humanitarian government and non-governmental Representatives pull together to meet to talk it all through a Stress For the First Time most people imagine that this sort of thing is happening all the time the reality of the situation is that it is not and there are all sorts of understandable reasons for that but that that circumstance does need to change um since then there's been a notable greater focus on the question of repatriation and some success don't want to over exaggerate that or even just exaggerate it but we do think there are cautious reasons for a little bit of optimism um I'm pleased to be able to say that the population of our Hall this week is likely to dip below 50 000 for the first time since the fall of Bak Ruth in 2019 when so tens of thousands of members of families and their children uh particularly took back were taken to our Hall that's because this should be a notable shipment as it were of Iraqis and also movement of syrians out of the camp since the beginning of 2002 4 200 Iraqis have been repatriated from the camps and that does not include I think an additional five to six hundred who will be moving over the next few days the government of Iraq has set up a system which repatriates 150 families every month or it should um and for similar numbers to be returned to their communities out of Jetta one to settle permanently I say it should because that figure has not been met every month but it's doing quite well against that Target and there is a target for us all to aim for on the whole the system is working Scott is faults but people are moving out of the circumstances of our whole to better circumstances on the ground it's the Coalition amongst others that are moving these people with the UN and the ngos nobody else is in the position to do that and uh I think it also fair to say that through constant political engagement by the Coalition and its member states with the government of Iraq um that momentum is building situation for syrians I'm afraid has been less encouraging um Syria is a complicated place and the circumstances of those concern is considerably more complicated than those uh than Iraqis uh we understand that about 1 400 syrians have been reintegrated as opposed to repatriated reintegrated back into their communities since the beginning of 2022 but that is a considerably more difficult task to achieve um we do think though that the pause on repatriable reintegration of syrians is about to end with um with actually 219 syrians having left our whole Camp only a few days ago on Monday this week to return to manbij lots of pushing and shoving by the coalitionist members and we will keep on pushing and shoving so that more syrians can return to their communities on Third Country Nationals over 800 nearly a thousand have been repatriated since the start of 2022 with a notable uptick in the numbers this year 2023 and it has to be said that the US has been an especially strong Advocate and facilitator of those repatriations um so the Coalition as a whole and as individual members um is also responsible for better security in the camps we don't formally run the camps that is the responsibility of the SDF and the sh um but we are instrumental in improving the security infrastructure as well as the wash educational and sports facilities there and I saw some of those on my recent trip also for the better coordination between the Iraqi authorities and the Syrian authorities on repatriation that is no easy process to get those two sides to come together and actually deliver tangible returns um but the Coalition has stepped in and is hosting a lot of that coordination looking forward um it's absolutely clear that this focus by the Coalition of camps will continue um the subject of the camps and the repatriation will be a key talking point at the coalition's ministerial in annual ministerial in Riyadh next week gaps for filling things to do of which there are a lot in the camps conditions and the movements of Iraqis and syrians who who are the majority of the kept population are being identified in a way that has not been uh has not happened before more funds will be sought and I think crucially pledged specifically for the camps returning residents and the communities into which they return because bolstering the capacities of those communities is really fundamental if they are to be absorbed and to be and to settle in a durable fashion it is just worth remembering um that most of the funds and we're talking many billions of pounds and dollars provided by the International Community for the rebuilding of Iraq and Syria still a lot to do have been provided by members of the Coalition even if it's not the Coalition itself that has delivered those projects but it is definitely one of the responsibilities of the coalition to Ghana support for more funds and those that has already been delivered um on communication so this is my um my last point we believe that uh Communications can improve the security and humanitarian circumstances in the camps and increase the flow of syrians in Iraq is being returned to their communities and accepted by their communities we try and put ourselves in the shoes of those residents and those communities to imagine what it is like about Communications gaps which is more filled by daesh than anybody else and we feel that our job along with those who are on the ground in practice moving people and supporting people Preparing People we do feel it a responsibility on the part of the coalition to support that effort um and the more ideas that people have on how that can be done and the more resources that can come with those ideas uh the better um we know that in those communities recipient communities acceptance is a particular problem along with the security or lack of security in some cases that await returnees jobs need for lack of and access to Services we're very conscious that these communities are overloaded at the moment so more people moving back into them is not always a very welcome thought so we're working on all of those fronts in a commutative communicative sense we're working in the camps to prepare its residents to leave we're working with the UN organizations in Syria and Iraq and with the government of uh Iraq to reduce the stigmatism attached to our whole residents as they return to their communities with undp we're already being able to show how Communications can overcome hostility to former al-hole residents and help them settle and to improve the reputation of the camps this is a crucial crucial Point reputation of the caps in the residents further we're about to Lodge a new set of materials on our Coalition Communications channels to show a more positive picture of both to help displace the notion that daesh perpetuates of a very negative narrative around these circumstances we also plan to use that positive picture to encourage more donors to get behind success as we're describing it and to provide more concrete support for recipient communities so that they can accept more returnees and be more comfortable about that um and finally we're using Communications to amplify the increasing number of convictions of dietary turnies to deter those who might still support daesh or who are attempted to support daesh the campaign also helps to show daish's victims that they have not been forgotten the abuse they have suffered will not be overlooked and that daesh will be brought to Justice which is the hashtag for our campaigns I hope that's a useful snapshot of the coalition's work on repatriation it's a mammoth task nothing I've said is meant to suggest otherwise we'd need more frankly of everything more support in the camps more support along the way we use the phrase our whole to home more support in the communities more repatriations it's moving in the right direction um but we need to accelerate looking forward to us in adapts presentations and to subsequent questions thank you Matt super uh so some reason for optimism but uh lots to do Austin hey thanks Matt uh first we'll say it's it's a pleasure to join the this fantastic group for today's panel Matt thanks so much to you to Dev from the Washington Institute for hosting this important discussion uh as you mentioned during my introduction I'm Austin doctor I serve as the director of counter-terrorism research initiatives and insight that's the DHS Center of Excellence for counterterrorism and terrorism prevention research we were proudly based at the University of Nebraska at Omaha and lead a global Consortium of more than 60 researchers from across 26 universities and non-government organizations I'm a political Scientist by training I've been working on the foreign fighter problem set for over a decade now and I think relevant to our discussion today with appointed focus on the Islamic State and its Global operations as part of that work it's been a pleasure to lead a team alongside Dev in a two-year project funded by DHS Science and Technology directorate our task as a team has been to address the really the critical question that we're here to discuss today you know what do we do about Isis foreign fighter families that are still detained in northeastern Syria uh and and how do we repatriate and reintegrate them in a way that's based and rooted and grounded in identified best practice this work has taken our research team to Iraq uh to Europe to different parts of the United States I'm excited to share just a few of those insights from our project and related report today uh in in these brief initial comments I I want to outline some of the goals and processes I think you can facilitate the what I'll say is the sustainable durable and holistic reintegration for foreign terrorist fighter families and and emphasize why a systematic framework for best practices or of best practices is needed in this effort Martin uh you provided or I think a really brilliant and insightful view into the status of global repatriation efforts I'm not going to attempt to add to that in any way other than just to reiterate right that the United States and its Partners including the UK have come to make uh repatriation a policy priority and and that within the United States there's General domestic partisan consensus uh that the repatriation of foreign terrorist fighter families from Northeastern Syria should be done expediently and I think there's as you said Martin room for cautious optimism here we're starting to see that begin to happen at scale and across uh across the global partner uh partnership and of Coalition member states uh that said there's clearly a lot of work that Still Remains to be done if we're pivoting this now to focus on the U.S case the number of U.S persons have already been repatriated uh represents a relatively small percentage of the total number of foreign persons are still held in detention I think formally speaking uh 39 of people have been brought back to the United States to date uh 15 adults 24 minors it's likely that there are more U.S persons that remain in detention but that that actual number that total number remains unclear at this point the core question the the question that remains is how do we get this right when we're talking about that transition then from repatriation to reintegration how do we avoid some of those common pitfalls of ad hoc policy implementation and ensure that reintegration that the reintegration process in the United States is informed by evidence best practice and so two quick takeaways here first effective reintegration programming requires a shared and clear understanding of what success means and how it would be evaluated it's difficult if not impossible to implement best practices without that Universal set of goals in place second is that much of the success of reintegration policy and practice is going to rely on organizational structures and processes established behind it having clearly specified roles and responsibilities and so the question then is okay what does this look like at the top level reintegration is not just one thing it's it's a collection of coordinated processes the goal of which the idea of success is that returnees would feel a sense of inclusiveness and belonging in their community and that we would see a significantly reduced risk of their engagement or recidivism into violent extremism the other thing I want to underscore here is that reintegration is not just about returnees themselves I think Martin alluded to this and his uh preliminary comments it's and that reintegration is also fundamentally about the relationship between returnees and their new home communities and so with that in mind with so many players involved um there are a number of challenges uh to getting this right we're an Evidence best practices can help to overcome these and create more durable sustainable programs and case outcomes some of those challenges without getting uh too far into the weeds gender and age-related biases stigmatization a sensitive local politics policy Cascades with overlapping uh domestic um uh Homeland Security priorities the synchronization of parallel case management for say offending parents and their their minor children and lastly facilitating coordinated action across a diverse and likely geographically dispersed Mission community and so to mitigate programmatic risks related to some of these challenges I think it's best to adopt what I call an aim small Miss small approach where if we see community inclusiveness and minimize risk as the end goal a couple of more pointed objectives and processes can can help to guide and facilitate those ultimate uh outcomes for example I think it's important that policy is built around reintegration that they be aligned with the scale of a country-specific attorney profile this is not going to be a one-size-fits-all solution blueprint uh second uh attorney case management plans should be tailored as in in so far as possible to each individual But ultimately Guided by or rooted in common strategic principles things like sensitivity to stigmatization a focus on the family as a collective unit and ensuring access to trauma-informed care uh and lastly I think it's important to note that this will require close coordination between practitioners and multi-sector Partners at the federal state local and tribal levels the the hands and feet of this work can be done locally but from a processes standpoint it's going to be essential that National Regional level teams provide coordination management and resource support in other words this will require full interagency engagement uh looking at the clock I'll just wrap it up by saying that the work of repatriation of reintegration remains both urgent and important we can incredibly minimize some of the related programmatic risks by adopting an evidence-based Approach at this point let me turn things back over to my colleagues I'm eager to hear dev's initial comments and to move into our discussion and Q a uh thanks Matt back over to you super awesome thank you very much Dev take us home solve it all solve it all no problem uh first and foremost thank you to Martin Austin for offering your vital insights into the work of the anti-dosh Coalition as well as the framework and the need for a framework of best practices so I hope to use my time to build on these comments and highlight key principles that drive our understanding of these issues as well as any framework that we need to build and that is first and foremost a nuanced understanding of age and gender-based biases and their effects on how we create policies for Islamic state-affiliated families these biases shape our understanding of detention repatriation accountability and reintegration and in the four years since the collapse of the Islamic States territorial control in March 2019 and bagoos the International Community has seen many successes in the fight against Isis most of these focusing on the Insurgency that still operates but we still struggle to find a consensus on repatriation accountability and reintegration recently the UN reiterated for the numerous time that the indefinite Detention of isis-affiliated individuals some who've been held for over four years raises a number of humanitarian and security concerns and a reminder to our audience just the scope of this issue that we're talking about detention camps there's more than one there's many camps and prisons that are holding these individuals including individuals from Third Country Nationals as we call them tcns syrians and Iraqis prisons hold thousands of men including 2 000 men and boys in prisons from over 60 different countries such as Guerin prison such where the home uh or the site of the January 2022 attacks or raqqa Detention Center which was recently hurt in the recent earthquakes there are also now rehabilitation centers holding teenage boys that have been moved out of detention camps and these detention camps such as Rose Camp which holds 2500 individuals including 2 000 Third Country Nationals uh or al-ho Camp which as Martin noted for the first time dipped below 50 000 individuals ninety percent of the individuals in all whole are women and children 23 percent of all residents are under the age of five and as mentioned by my colleagues I'll again reiterate it since 2019 we've seen approximately 2 700 individuals from Third Country Nationals repatriated and about 1200 families are 5 000 Iraqis returned to Iraq we have now started to see movement among Syrian Nationals as well and this is a step in the right direction in 2023 alone we've seen 12 countries repatriate individuals recently uh Ian Moss Deputy of the counterterrorism bureau at state made a statement here at the Washington Institute in which he said he believes 25 countries will repatriate this year so hopefully we hit that stat but that still means that we have ten thousand Third Country Nationals that still remain in Northeast Syria not counting more than 25 000 Iraqis and 18 000 syrians three Patrician process has been slow and it's vital to acknowledge that the majority of those who remain are women and minors highlighting the need again to take a gender and age-based approach as we talk about repatriation we also need to talk about the importance of accountability and reintegration in this process these discussions need to be centered on our entrenched knowledge gaps and challenges as mentioned by my colleague Austin and many of these Center on our own biases related to age and gender such as who receives weapons training who was exposed to violence when were girls expected to marry and become mothers as well as what were women's roles under the Islamic State building off of our research and our field work we came up with several best practices focusing on three key areas strategic that would basically create a strategic and proactive approach to repatriation and again each of these centers on our age and gender-based biases so first highlighting the work of Martin and the anti-dosh Coalition strategic communication cell we need a clear and strategic communication strategy that Garner civil support we have to have an overarching method that manages expectations is well developed focuses on the fact that language matters I always like to think about the fact that we call them foreign terrorist fighter families not everyone who joined the Islamic State was a fighter it's a very gendered term an idea that only men are Fighters or only men are part of the Islamic State so even how we call these individuals affects the policy we create and we need to make sure that we integrate evaluation tools into our mechanisms second for repatriation accountability and reintegration programs to be successful as Austin mentioned for people to be highly functioning members of society we need to have a trauma-informed care approach for these families that means equipping case managers and providers with expertise and resources a tailor-made and sustainable system trauma-related uh symptoms need to be addressed we need to match people with appropriate settings and finally again we need to evaluate early and often and once again my third Point evaluations are needed we need to leverage the instruments we already have we need to ensure a Simplicity and tailor-mage the risks and individuals that are there right minors and women are the majority of these individuals so perhaps some of the mechanisms that we already have in place are not the right tools and we need to adapt them for the population that we're dealing with I'll end by highlighting some of the what I like to call the known unknowns the things that make the precarious situation that we are dealing with even more precarious and important to address in a timely manner that includes the Isis threat on detention camps both internal and external the threat of natural disasters such as the recent earthquake in Syria and Northern Iraq sorry in Syria and turkey as well as the possible Turkish intervention what does that mean if Turkey decides to do an incursion into Northeast Syria and what does that mean for the future as the SDF and finally the most recent Syrian normalization what will that mean for Northeast Syria with all these issues at play we need to move forward with these discussions in a timely manner and so I'll hand it back to Matt to facilitate some question and answer thank you fantastic three fabulous presentations our only problem here is that I've got about you know an hour and a half of questions of my own which we're not going to do because I want to get to all the questions that have come in I want to remind you're able to submit questions if you're on the zoom function directly through the Q a function in the bottom middle of your screen if you're watching on the live stream feel free please to submit a question via email to the address policy Forum at washingtoninstitute.org so I'd like to start with a couple of broad questions that each of the three of you uh can take a shot at answering but maybe we can try and answer them briefly so that we can get on and then I'll move to a question for each of you and I'd ask that others only jump in on that if they really have a very strong held two-finger uh so that we can get to the questions a bunch of them a bunch of which have already come in so um one of the big themes that I heard really from all three of you is the need uh to counter uh stigmatization uh and and reintegrate people into communities but also the need uh to um have accountability and for there to be prosecutions um uh hashtag Isis will be brought to Justice how do we go about reconciling those two things does it not make it more difficult to convince people to go home if it's made clear to them they're going to face stiff sentences maybe be separated from their children um does it not stress to people back home that the individuals that were seeking to repatriate are people who went and bottom line uh joined whether they fought or did other things were part of a really nasty terrorist organization that could pose some risk how do we try and balance these two pretty competing issues of reintegration addressing the stigma but at the same time feeling the need to hold people accountable and prosecute people which will also contribute to stigmatization so maybe we'll take this in in reverse order Deb yeah um I think that's an excellent question I I think about it almost as a dual communication strategy I think it's important to communicate to your citizens in your country that you were going to be repatriating to your your civil society that accountability is a huge part of this and I used the word accountability and not prosecution um because I think for each country there are a different set of laws in place uh and there are a different set of tools that can be used to hold people accountable and for each country that is going to be a very different process depending on the number of Travelers they had the crimes that were involved how Society is built and how they can hold individuals accountable but I think accountability is a vital part of that process for ensuring that those who are accepting individuals who know that those were turning are going to be held accountable for the decision to go and join the Islamic State um on the other side I actually think that a clear communication strategy is also important for those being repatriated for many individuals they don't necessarily know what they're going to be returning to I think we need to communicate to those being repatriated this is the process that's going to happen you are you know going to be perhaps you know arrested or held in detention or this is the process of how you are going to be held accountable in our country you are going to be given a fair trial uh you may or may not be separated from your children if you are these are the processes your children will go through these are the steps we're taking to ensure the most proactive approach and so I think having that dual communication strategy is actually very important for encouraging people to want to be repatriated because as of right now it should also be emphasized repatriation is a voluntary process people have to want to return to their home countries and so part of that is communicating to them what that process is going to look like so that they can buy into it as well awesome sure with that so well um so I won't I won't try to add too much to that other than other than to say I think this needs to to match word to to action on on the word side as dad mentioned a communication strategy that uh that recognizes the delicate uh sensitive Nuance of this issue is going to be required and I I would agree with that that what that means is leaning into an emphasis on Justice and accountability for those who have been found uh to be responsible for the heinous crime perpetrated by the Islamic State uh particularly for adults on the on the flip side here I think we need to begin from a starting point when talking about minor children and seeing them primarily or first as a baseline as as victims right and having far less agency in this um and I think part of the Strategic communication strategy in cultivating acceptance of some of these families uh could and should underscore the vulnerability of of those minor persons and the opportunity that reintegration provides for their eventual Rehabilitation and ensuring their rights right as as human persons uh on the action side um is that I think it also needs to be made clear that these persons uh would not just be these returned persons would not just be dropped off and left right uh in in a local and home Community but the the government and its multi-sector Partners uh would be closely involved uh both in the monitoring and resourcing and support of that reintegration process Martin mentioned this in his preliminary comments but part of the funding strategy right is also providing resources to communities to prepare them uh to receive the returned persons and so what I think will be critical in in navigating this really nuanced delicate space is making sure that those words and actions are supportive of one another Martin yeah thank you let me just build on uh what um uh what Austin and Dave have said first of all um Coalition is very conscious of the relationship between uh as it were the families and um uh who really need something other than justice as it were um they need all sorts of other things and those uh fighters who do need to be brought to justice so um as is the government of Iraq to be honest so the deal by which 150 families are brought out about Hall is also dependent upon the movement of 50 Iraqis out of the detention facilities men basically out of the detention facilities the dev has mentioned at the same time and in some cases those movements have not been able to be synchronized so the total movements have not happened um so too but but that is happening and the Coalition has been instrumental and indeed hosts what is known as a fusion cell by which uh the sdfsh uh the Coalition and various bits of the Iraqi government and securities agencies come together to to to manage that process so that everybody is clear about what's happening who's being moved when when they're being moved and so on and so on um so that's the first point there's a clear relationship between those two different bodies of folk um I think the second point to pick up uh Austin's point about uh as it were words and deeds um you know I'm in the Communications business and I can spin a story for quite a while but ultimately it does need to be backed up by substance uh or it's just not a credible story and so when you're talking about moving people back into their communities we can prepare them as we do uh by giving them all sorts of support psychosocial support life skills etc etc but when they get back to those communities if there are no jobs for them if they really add to the problem of insufficient Public Services we're going to have a problem the substance is behind the messaging um and there is a real capacity constraint here um there always is in Iraq and we're dealing with a particularly acute problem moving tens of thousands of people in who have been through the most bizarre circumstances back into communities that are already suffering from a death of capacity so we've got to square that off in some way um but there are good news stories which can be communicated to create what we often call a sort of displacement narrative or a more positive cycle of a narrative um final point I think uh I would say is that I mean penultimate point is Deb's completely right and we say consistently putting ourselves in the shoes of residents what is it that people are told about their circumstances not very much is the is the honest answer so if you are a Resident Evil in our whole camp and you are told that you are being moved as a result of volunteering but you are then told that you are being moved you're probably not told in fact you are not really told where you're going to yeah you learn when you get there it's Jeddah uh Jetta Jetta one but you don't know that that's going to happen you're moved usually at the dead of night over a number of days these are not comforting circumstances and you are not informed about that process and so on when you're in general one you're not told what Jetta one is you're not told how long you're going to be there you're not told what's going to happen to you next so this is the this is the journey that we think absolutely has to be and the communicative gaps in that Journey that absolutely have to be filled and we are trying to do that um final Point really is about the imbalance between demand and Supply there is a hell of a demand large number of people the supply of resources and that includes including that from the government of Iraq is just not sufficient to find that balance just at the moment but that's you know that's the daily load that's the daily tasks that we have to overcome thanks super so there's tremendous interest here we've got a lot of questions coming in I'm going to try and splice them up amongst each of you um so uh the let's first come in are the following um let this first one Austin will be for you I'll ask the three and then we can just go through uh is there any sense of recidivism rates for repatriated Isis families so Austin you mentioned the term recidivism I'm gonna lay that at your doorstep um Dev uh one question asks how are you measuring successful de-radicalization or reintegration and specifically how do you do that with children maybe many years away from being ready or old enough to act out on Isis ideology and you had mentioned evaluations several times so I'm gonna I'm gonna leave that Park that with you and Martin you just mentioned something that uh segues perfectly uh into the next question which is you mentioned at one point uh the uh an effort to um present a more positive picture of a whole you mentioned that you can Spin A Yarn for some time but ultimately will have to be some fact behind there uh talk to us about that because it seems like it's it's pretty much a a not good story how do we spin a more positive picture of a whole Dev let's let's start with you and then go to Austin and Martin yeah I think it's an answer to that question of measuring success uh so I will say that in the United States uh it is very very hard to measure or regulate what someone believes uh so I usually take a step back from the idea of de-radicalization because that is nearly impossible to measure and focus on reintegration or disengagement uh and so I think that's kind of an actual measurable uh Factor we can't always know what is going on in someone's head or you know even enforce what's going on in someone's head if they still are hold a close tie to the ideology but what we can measure is are they functioning members of society are they not um you know reoffending which I'll let Austin kind of deal with that aspect of the question um and I think the reason we call for evaluations in the way we do is that there are options where people may or may not reoffend and it's important to know that we don't want to necessarily scrap an entire program where 99 of the people who go through a program uh are successfully reintegrated into society and one person or one percent is not and so if we have effective evaluation tools to track these individuals processes what's working what's not we can often find out what the issue is for that one percent that isn't and so we don't necessarily need to scrap an entire program but rather focus on the issues that have worked and haven't and kind of readjust going forward um and I think the questioner was correct these are long-term programs for Success when we're talking about individuals trauma-informed care I highly recommend checking out the more extensive report that we did on trauma-informed care specifically for minors some of these traumas and issues can pop up in adulthood and we're dealing with minors now so this could be a very long you know process and so when we create these programs they do need to be sustainable uh and so we call for revaluation early and often it's not just a one-time evaluation of an individual and the trauma they're facing uh but kind of maintaining those evaluations and having also multiple perspectives for evaluation not just one not just asking the individual what their trauma is but you know monitoring speaking to those that are involved in the process throughout great Austin sure thanks Matt uh I think a really important question uh as it relates to recidivism this is really a question about the blowback rate right what happens when returnees return uh and what's the likelihood that they've been engaged or re-engaged in in violent activity uh I'll say two things one is that preliminary research based off of returning combatants and Isis related persons to to Europe suggests a relatively low blowback rate um but on the to balance that to provide some some temper to that assessment is that I would argue especially in the case of the United States that it is still too soon to tell um I think that it's important that we remain highly attentive to this risk and remain Vigilant uh two aspects here suggest as Deb suggested the the need for sustained attention um one is that a persons particularly adults who have already been tried and prosecute prosecuted in a sentence um are are only just beginning uh and to be released right to be on parole uh meaning they would have relatively to relative to being incarcerated would have a greater uh opportunity and be in a better position to conduct an attack um where they don't have that opportunity at this current time the second thing I think is is equally important and it ties into dev's earlier comment is that we don't know when uh you know some of the traumas uh that were experienced by minor returnees May manifest and so as it relates to blowback great tracking uh the risk of recidivism of Engagement or re-engagement with a violent extremist ideology um will be important also for minors to make sure that they have the the services and the care that they need to to find those credible off-ramps from engagement or recidivism as well and so uh to to sort of come back around uh you know full cap on on this initial assessment is that preliminary evidence suggests a relatively low blowback rate but we should that should not discount um how we treat the risk of this issue moving forward yeah Martin yeah thank you uh let me just be clear on this question of a positive picture what we're not trying to do is suggest that it's uh I don't know how our whole Camp is a Rose Garden not at all um but there there is something there to work on depending on and they are on your messages and your content depends hugely upon your audiences so let me break that down briefly if your audience our members those in the camp there is no meaningful communicative function within the camps that tell them what is going on um I talked to certain people quite recently about the extent to which if somebody in the camps feels that they are intimidated or being threatened uh what happens what can they do about that and the answer was well there is an office over there and they can come and see us in the office and tell us about it and we will do something about it I mean the likelihood of that happening is pretty much zero or if there's poor people do do that the risk to their lives is considerable there are communicative ways in which that can be overcome and that's just one example most residents don't know of the improvements in the facilities in the camps because there isn't a communicative function in the camps there isn't a mechanism by which that information is being related to them and so on are there any educational facilities in the camp that are broadcast in the way that we adapted educational facilities during covid to get to people not in schools or children not in schools but at home no so there's an option there that's in the campus but there are improvements in the camps that we can tell people about and are beginning to do so if you're outside the camps if you are in Iraq for example um you don't know anything but people in our Hall Are Monsters uh and why would you have them back into your communities there are examples where we've addressed that with undp and UNICEF through communicative activity but also Community Based activity and those perceptions change radically as a consequence of that so there are clear examples where which we think we can apply to a larger flow of Iraqis out of the campus Ditto in Syria where we're having similar successes pockets of success but every time a pocket adds to another pocket so we're encouraged by that third internationally um on the whole the perception of our Hollow in this residents is a very negative one it's a ticking Time Bomb there are also monsters um I think Charles this is a great service recently by describing uh the camps as um I think 13 guantanamos in Northeast Syria was the title of his particular piece it's all very Justified and for a while that sort of international coverage pretty bold pretty negative has helped to generate more interest in the International Community in solving a problem that really does need to be solved we are very strongly of the view that that moment is over we should stop talking about how bad our whole is because actually that's some of the best dice propaganda you can generate because diet tells the world that the West is basically incarcerating all of these innocent folk in these camps just like we did in the other detention facilities over time so let us stop talking about um that and paint a more positive picture about the numbers for example about some of the reality not all of the reality but some of the reality on the ground which is not all negative and over time we work on a sort of displacement Theory you can begin to display bad news with more positive news thanks super I'm gonna continue with this and try and get in as many questions as possible one that came in specifically For You Austin do you believe there is a quote shared understanding of success end quote between key countries and if not how do you propose creating that uh Dev a question that came in for you uh how do you hold women accountable that may have been trafficked into diah's controlled territory and are there any countries that are handling this issue uh particularly well and and Martin um as the head of the anti-diet Strategic communication cells what are some of the challenges you see in trying to gain consensus in the International Community which I guess is trying to ask you tell us about the hurting of cats and just to lump in one second question there are there any Partners within the UK within the U.S agencies or Partners other countries or International organizations who if they were more engaged would bring particularly big added value so Austin let's start with you sure thanks Matt yeah again really great question uh I'll be quick I I think there is at the top level uh generally a shared sense of what successful reintegration means with respect to having a shared uh or a sense of inclusiveness belonging in the community and on the other side that there's this reduced risk of Engagement uh or recidivism um you look at some of the work that our colleagues and friends over at icct have done in partnership with the European Union for example you see a lot of similar language expressed around those top level objectives and defining what success means uh and to incorporate and to include some of our key Partners uh in this work where I think there may be continued room for um for identification of sort of a shared mental model is in common evaluation metrics how we measure success the specific instruments uh that are used uh I think this can facilitate uh in a really productive way information sharing and continued collaboration on best practices as we move forward through the repatriation and more fully into the integration of Rehabilitation process and so the opportunity for continuing to distill um uh and share this sort of common mental model of success that opportunity is still there at the Top Line with respect to what success with reintegration means I think we're fortunate that that that shared sense uh is very much in place yep thank you um so on the question of traffic I think there's two uh things I wanted to segregate uh miners who were trafficked uh some by Third parties some by their own parents who were brought to the Islamic State and adult individuals the majority of adult women who traveled from third countries were not trafficked these were individuals who made a decision uh to go on their own bring their families sometimes their children and join the Islamic State there is a very small percentage of women adult women who were trafficked but that is the minority not the majority that's not to say that once individuals got to the Islamic State they then changed their mind and wanted to leave and could not leave the Islamic State territory but those are very different things um when we look at programs specifically looking at accountability and reintegration for women um they're very very different across different countries uh the United States North America Europe uh has taken a prosecutorial approach for adult women the majority of adult women and there are also countries in the western Balkans that are focusing solely in Central Asia that are focusing solely on reintegration so part of that is removing the prosecutorial approach uh Kosovo has prosecuted but has waived and given clemency to all those that were prosecuted or waived their sentences some countries have granted clemency to women um I struggle with this and there's not enough evaluation yet I think one of the things that Austin addressed is that we're not far enough into this process I think one thing I personally struggle with is that when we look at success for how reintegration really is it has to come with a level of accountability and so if we say that women are because they are women therefore not accountable for their own actions I do worry that there is going to be a step down the line where there is a reintegration issue for this um but many uh countries have decided to focus solely on reintegration and only time will tell and evaluations will tell looking at success thank you Martin um building some consensus well it's really not straightforward you would imagine that it would be because it's such an obviously obviously difficult problem urgent problem to solve but the reality is that that's not the case um and let's just sort of pick out some examples and I do and I'm not being I'm not being critical in I am in some cases being critical but in most cases not I'm just really being descriptive I'll just get the critical bit out of the way first um we're dealing we're in Syria we're talking about Syria I mean Syria is run by a monster uh we can't have any dealings with that monster but other members of the International Community feel that we do when it comes down to it the majority of syrians in our whole Camp are from regime territory what do we do about that it's going to be very difficult to build a consensus with the Assad regime on a long-term future for those 15 000 I think it is about 15 000 people that's a really complicated one and of course there are members of the Coalition who do not accept at all that we should be dealing with the sdx uh I think we know what we mean by that um moving on to another host government we also did in Iraq now the government of Iraq is a complicated Affair um it's it's you know it's not one cap that is following the line of others um there are all sorts of interests vested and so on uh and it's you know it doesn't have problems or corruption and governance ability capacity and so on and so on these are not just solved overnight because there are um 55 000 Iraqis who do need to be repatriated not least because there are many many more Iraqis in other camps in Syria who could also be also known as idps who could be repatriated and plenty of my humanitario colleagues say it's all very well you talking about how to deal with the whole problems but what about all of those others who are in no way responsible for their circumstances now what is happening to support them so problems in the region um are there problems are there institutions uh in the UK and the us that are problematic who could be more on board I don't really feel that that's the case would have said that about a year ago uh it was really difficult to get humanitarian actors and Military actors to talk to each other that's so not the case now and that's a really positive development because they we all have a contribution to make to to solve these problems that penultimate point is Communications can do an awful lot and we found ourselves in a rather embarrassing position in Oman where because we outlined what Communications could do everybody sort of jumped on that vehicle and said well Communications is basically the answer to everything well it's not it can be part of the solution so there's something about um people committing uh to do their bit and then the final point is that's all very well but we're talking about resource this is the bottom line we need an awful lot of resource to resolve most of these issues and it is a time when the need to counter terrorism is is lowered down the list of priorities for most governments including the United States government and the United Kingdom's government CT is not what it was thankfully problem is it's still terrorism is still a problem we're not particularly good at finishing the job and this I think is an example of that and we've run out of the money to do that and at the same time over the last few years would this mean we've had covids rubbished our economies so that there's less money available to spend Afghanistan say no more Ukraine Putin has invaded Ukraine and the principal threat that we are all facing is from that and a huge amount of resource from the British government's development Source funds have been diverted correctly into solving all of the problems that Putin has generated I'm not on some sort of soapbox here but it is just the case that a huge percentage of Britain's development budget which would be going into Syria is now going into responding to Putin's immersion of ukrit now these are things that you can't just magic away I'm afraid um not sure what the answer is would be running for being the Prime Minister even if I didn't know the answers um we just have to work our way at this issue thanks Martin I am here for you on the soapbox this is good content it is a sign of a very successful event with people that other people want to hear from experts that there are so many questions we didn't get to I apologize if I didn't get to your question uh including kind of levels of analysis the big picture including Martin your comment about how do we pursue this is it sustainable at a time when counterterrorism is not no longer the the top issue uh issues about how we get countries to do it at all to perpetuate and address uh judicial reform and other things and then how to make it work uh for example Deb we didn't get to a conversation about uh trauma-informed care which I know is something you you care about a lot at the end of the day uh Martin's right uh counterterrorism is no longer the top thing it's also the case that this particular issue set mishandled or not handled well is the single biggest guarantor that counterterrorism will continue to be a very very prominent threat internationally separate from the domestic issues we're all facing uh please join me everyone in thanking these three fantastic speakers I want to remind you again about this fantastic uh piece of research that Insight published uh that Austin and devorah and others were involved in if you didn't get enough of this and based on the questions you did not this is a good place to start thank you all very very much enjoy the rest of your day Martin Austin Rivera thank you all very very much

Channel: WashingtonInstitute

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Length: 65min 34sec (3934 seconds)

Published: Thu Jun 01 2023