What is the future of China's Belt and Road initiative? | DW News

the Kremlin March 2023 the last time Vladimir Putin and XI Jin ping met in person it was a year into Putin's war against Ukraine and just after she was reconfirmed as China's supreme leader and amid the global chaos the war Unleashed she was doubling down on this relationship I think that the way that CDP came to mosco in March this year showing his unequivocal support basically not saying that he approves of the war against Ukraine but saying that the first state visit is to Russia he comes extra to see his friend in the Kremlin and spend nearly three days with him that's a big show of support check out what she said when leaving the Kremlin speaking through his translator right now there are changes we haven't seen for a 100 years and we are the ones driving these changes together it sounded like two men on a joint mission to end America's era as the world's dominant power sheared animosity towards the US is very much the glue that brings the two men together so Putin and she are getting closer and teaming up against the United States in what some are calling the beginnings of a new Cold War now it's Putin's turn to visit China so what's his trip all about China's massive belt and road infrastructure project is the peg for the visit Beijing is hosting an event to Mark its 10-year anniversary but there will be much more on the leader's agenda too from the increasingly close military relationship between the two sides to Russia's huge supplies of fossil fuels to China Moscow is hoping to get the green light for a new gas pipeline that would boost this trade even further just as important will be the Optics of the visit how strong a message of unity do the two leaders send out out all this will set XI Jin ping up for the next Summit that's rumored to be in his calendar with US President Joe Biden next month it'll be the next serious opportunity to take the temperature of this new Cold War Russian President Vladimir Putin and China's Xi Jinping have met in Beijing China's marking the 10th anniversary of its vast belt and road infrastructure project Putin called she his dear friend the Russian leader is guest of honor at the summit over 130 heads of state and representatives are there largely from the global South she said the trust between China and Russia keeps growing let's go to Beijing correspondent Fabian kretchmer this is Putin's first trip to a major Global power since Russia invaded Ukraine there's an international warrant out against him but China was never going to hand him over to authorities no it was obvious he would not get arrested here but rather that the officials would roll out the red carpet uh first of all China does not recognize the international criminal court so from a legal point of view they can just ignore the warrant but also um the Chinese government has so far not um criticized Russia for the warn Ukraine not even with one silby um they didn't even name Russia the aggressor in this conflict and they don't even call it a war they call it the Ukraine crisis so that gives you an idea to what degree actually um China has sided with Russia just how buddy buddy as she and Putin becoming though yeah quite I mean you can even argue that beside the political friendship there's also a personal friendship um there a meeting for the 42nd time in the last decade uh that is really record breaking and uh when Putin arrived here there were Xi Jinping and Putin they were shading hands um during the U group photo um of the belt and Road Forum here in Beijing with all the head of States they were placed next to each other also when there were giving speeches and they were sitting directly next to each other so they are really very close and um I think you can argue that there's some personal chemistry between those two head of States Putin really needs uh customers when it comes to selling its oil abroad after sanctions were put on it um but what about the relationship from the other side where you are how much does she need Putin uh economically and politically well Russia is um China's biggest neighbor they share a border of more than 4,000 kilometers so they have to get along already uh by that perspective but um of course Russia is also very important when it comes to China's energy security when it comes to supply of oil and um uh yeah so also I would say the biggest aspect is that they are political allies they both um want to challenge the Western World Order they have same uh or very similar political views when it comes to um yeah the the they against the the West so to speak and uh so they share a lot of values but um when you ask how much does Xi Jinping need Putin I would also argue how much does Putin need see I think um wise Versa it's even more I mean J Russia is clearly the junior partner because China now has become economically uh much bigger in size and um you can also see it in terms of trade numbers um uh China has a lot of you know Diversified trade globally but for Russia really um China is by far the biggest trade partner so I would say the dependency is more the other way around and Russia's war effort of course is costing it a lot of lives and money and uh this is all on the sidelines of this belt and Road initiative which some countries have been pulling out of and she opened the Forum warning against decoupling he does sound worried about China's economic future well I mean um it's not teing Ping's strength to you know publicly amid weaknesses or or self-reflect so I would say his rhetoric is still uh very confident but you're right I mean uh especially since the pandemic the Bel and Road initiative or the new Silk Road as it is often called has encountered a lot of problems um I mean many states couldn't pay back their loans and um they were deep in tra towards the Chinese that brought some problems and uh also domestically actually um the willingness and also the popularity here among the people to spend billions and billions of taxpayers money in the global global South while actually the budget here um is also empty and you know China faces uh its own economic problems uh so that has really decreased uh the popularity of the belt and Road initiative so what China is doing right now is basically transforming this belt and Road initiative they want to make it less financially risky they want to open it more also to foreign investors also investors uh from uh the west and um I would say if you um view this initiative holistically then I would still call it um to some degree a success and you can see that also by the fact that um for example the European Union and also the G7 Nations they're coming up with um Alternatives uh to compete with China they start their own infrastructure uh projects in the global South so you can see that um there is definitely um the notion that you know China is gaining a global influence and um the West wants to counter that with their own model of um investment to talk more about this I'm joined Now by Jacob Gunter a senior Analyst at the Merk Institute for China studies Jacob we hear a lot of talk at the moment about shifting Global power dynamics how would you say that China's position on the world stage has changed since it launched the belt and Road initiative 10 years ago yeah it's it's changed quite a lot um I mean when when you look not only at the the Belton Road initiative and how that has shaped China's own position in the world um you also have uh kind of a rising China as not not only kind of the factory the world but an increasingly Innovative um competitor to sort of the traditional G7 um dominated world so um not not only has this significantly changed um you know China over this period but it's it's really had a significant impact in the world and looking at how the BR has shaped China's relationship with a lot of individual countries um uh that effectively China has created an alternative to the traditional Western sort of partnership model um and for a lot of countries that that that gives them options that they previously didn't have how does that alternative look though in concrete terms what sort of options do these countries actually have yeah well unfortunately they they don't have a ton of options because I I would personally argue that uh um the United States Europe uh Japan and others um have not been doing as much as they need to to to offer real credible Alternatives um and frankly uh if if you're you know part of the global South and um you're trying to promise your voters and your constituents um you know some sort of major infrastructure project um if you you kind of have the options between working with traditional Western partners that might take five to 10 years for one of these projects to come together and it's incredibly complex um whereas China's offering something that you know they they show up with a One-Stop shop and they can do the entire project in a couple of years and uh voters are happy constituents are happy um and so even if you end up with something that's not as good as it could be um or maybe it has uh you know more negative environmental or labor impacts than it should um if if the options are between you know A and B um you're going to take B with China in a lot of these contexts I want to look a little bit more closely at some of these projects though you mentioned Innovation because when we think about the belt and road we generally tend to Envision things like Bridges and ports bake traditional infrastructure but it's about more than that isn't it yeah C it certainly is um first off uh the kind of a broadly underrecognized aspect of of the belt and Road initiative is energy um so the the one area that has been pretty well covered is um China's contribution to a lot of coal Burning uh power plants around the world through the Belton Road initiative but um I I think that a lot of the impact that we're seeing um from the you know the whether it's Transportation infrastructure or energy infrastructure um it's really about Chinese mostly state owned Enterprises being able to kind of penetrate into markets and develop um you know stronger trading ties uh with those countries but I suspect that moving forward we'll see a lot more um of kind of a digital and a green energy Dimension um to the belon road initiative because not only are those areas where China is quite strong um it's area those are areas where um major Chinese companies like Huawei are running into more and more restrictions in a lot of the developed World um and so there be a need to kind of be able to push um China's uh Tech capacity in the telecoms and digital space um into these alternative markets would you say that these restrictions from the West actually play into China's favor then in that sense um I think they do to a certain degree uh I think Huawei would probably be much more interested in uh you know building out the the American 5G Network or the Japanese 5G networ nwor than they would um you know some some developing countries that maybe can't build as extensive of of networks um just from a cost perspective so I I think if if if given the option um they would rather not have those restrictions um but those restrictions nonetheless do have an impact Beyond just the markets themselves that have those restrictions um and in this case I I expect and anticipate that it's going to to Really push uh what they call the digital Silk Road um into a lot of the global because that's where the export Market's going to be for those companies I'm interested in how this project is being viewed from inside of China especially in the context of a slowing economy we have heard reports that China is planning to make its loans less risky and to involve the private sector more in this project what can you tell me about that yeah I think it's actually part of a a broader Trend that um has developed throughout the the entire sort of era of the Belton Road initiative um you know uh we we have the uh the belon road for that's taking place right now um or taking place this week uh but this is of course the third of these fora um so if you go back to previous years and you actually compare XI jinping's speeches it the first and the second one it goes from this big grandiose vision of Reviving you know this the Silk Roads and um you know stitching the world together through Chinese Le infrastructure project projects and then you go to the second belon Road Forum there's more of a focus on maybe some smaller projects more of an emphasis on environmental and financial sustainability um more of an emphasis on technology rather than just the the big traditional infrastructure projects and I I I would expect that we'll we'll hear something similar from XI Jin Pang um uh if if he decides to speak which I expect he would um at the belon road Forum uh in Beijing uh and we'll hear a lot of talk about you know as they call it small is beautiful is sort of the new saying going around in Beijing these days um so I I would expect that those Trends will continue um and and look you know the belt and Road initiative is you know 10 years old um it it probably is a strategy that needs to adapt and needs to change from beijing's perspective so um I don't think they would view the fact that they need to make changes that that means that the built- and Road initiative was a failure um it's just that they need to adapt their strategy uh yeah so if small is beautiful why the Grand Vision and and is this something China would regret this overarching branding um they they may come to regret it uh this this is a thing that um China is incredibly good at the marketing side of things um uh and and pushing this Grand Vision um you know a good a good point of comparison would be uh if you look at the kind of Investments and project financing and stuff happens from the entirety of Europe put together together um in most of these countries it would actually dwarf what China's done it's just nobody thinks about Europe building a power plant or Europe building a port they think about uh Seamans or or Schneider Energy building um a power plant or MEK building a port um they don't think of it as Europe so China's really good at this branding but it does oftentimes come back to to bite them um at the same time uh so you know thinking about how the West which is finally starting to put together some Alternatives um that that was really instigated by this big grandiose vision of the belon RO initiative that um maybe could have flown under the radar a bit better um had they not been putting everything under this big umbrella um with this Grand Vision um and it's it it brings to mind um you know something similar that happens back in um uh 2015 when this made in China 2025 plan came out um that utterly terrified um uh all of the the European and American businesses uh because this grandiose Vision that they had to kind of catch up in all these Technologies and take all this global market share um created a you know it was kind of a dream scenario for Beijing but it was a nightmare scenario for for a lot of foreign companies so I think um that kind of came back to bite them in the same way that maybe the grandiose vision of the belt and Road will another thing that came back to bite was that is uh had second thoughts about getting involved in this project would you say is is a real outline Li here or are there other nations that may want to exit yeah I think I mean Italy's probably an outlier um for you know the vast majority of countries that that have signed on to the Belton Road um initiative are developing countries of of varying statuses and um you know from their perspective there's there's no real diplomatic pressure um uh and there's no real major tradeoff to um continuing the sign you know these agreements and continuing to be a part of it and kind of give face to Beijing um I think Italy was under a lot of pressure because you know major European economy part of the G7 and such um and when you when you compare the amount of investment and financing of projects that come um through the Bel and Road initiative um at a macro scale it's a lot of money you know uh give or take a trillion dollars over the last decade um but when you go state by state um and project by project you know these get smaller and smaller and if you're a developing country in the global South you know a one or a five or a 10 billion dollar project is a huge deal um if you're Italy that's a drop in the bucket and and so I think Italy had a lot less to lose um in in proportion of terms um and there was more to gain diplomatically by by removing themselves from that and I just don't really see a you know a clear incentive for a lot of the global South to do that let's look at some of the most prominent attendees at this forum we know that Russian President Vladimir Putin is taking part um but representatives of Afghanistan's Taliban regime will also be there how are we to understand China's role in the world in that context yeah I mean uh you know China uh has surrounded itself with all sorts of good friends these days and uh I mean you you look at the relationship with Russia and clearly there's um there's not only a a sense of okay we're going to part we're going to kind of partner together um because we both of these major countries are having sort of their own facing down moments with the United States um and its allies um so you know they're they're friends in that regard um but also there seems to be a very legitimate close personal relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin um as as to you know the Taliban for example um I think I I I wouldn't expect that that Beijing imagines that it's going to be able to kind of go in and you know fix or solve Afghanistan or anything like that um I suspect that they look at the situation they accept the reality that the taliban's in control and they say well you know we share border with this country it's a very small border but it's a border nonetheless and they don't want the instability um that's that can emerge out of that country um and has emerged out of that country over the centuries um to to kind of spill over um so you know maybe there are some Bel and road projects in Afghanistan in the future but um I would expect that those are going to be more geopolitically motivated than they are you know by commercial interests uh or anything like that when China says that small is beautiful how does this apply to its digital infrastructure for example because it seems to me that what you're saying is that China wants to be a little bit more quiet about this project now than it was 10 years ago where will this be in a decade from now will we still be talking about the belt and road or will the the power that China is uh is demonstrating in this just be be somewhat softer and more subtle yeah I mean whether whether the belt and Road initiative as a brand continues to exist or um you know whether they adapt to something else and we've seen some indications for that there's you know this Global development initiative and Global Security and Global civilizational initiatives all these new things that Ching ping is pushing out um and maybe maybe the Bel and Road Road gets folded into that maybe it continues to exist as its own thing but whatever happens to the naming and The Branding what will happen is it will continue to have a significant impact um on the global economy you know uh whether it's the traditional infrastructure like all these ports that you know um we don't see a whole lot of New Port developments in the belon road initiative but we don't need to see Newport development they're already there um and they're already changing how China trades with those countries and how those countries trade with the rest of the world um and they're making them you know kind of closer uh uh and more more closely tied um to China as as the main trade and economic partner and then when you look at like the digital um and the green energy side of things um I would expect that that will um continue to develop and develop quite strongly along what they call the digital Silk Road um and again a big part of that is that uh they're going to need export markets for companies like way um and it's going to be quite valuable to be able to have a you know bring a lot of the China's digital Champions um through that uh that first kind of footprint um in terms of building out you know telecoms network uh in a lot of these countries but one one thing that I'll I'll be looking looking at quite um quite you know closely is how does China's growing digital footprint in a lot of these countries um affect uh that country's relationship with China um and that country's relationship with the rest of the world because um you know the hard the traditional hard infrastructure you know of course that creates um you know a certain amount of influence that China has over the recipient country um but we've seen really clearly how disruptive um you know digital manipulation can be um around the world um and that's including in You Know Rich develops um economies and so um the the concerns that I have about what possible digital footprint print um and digital control that China might be able to export um through through these sorts of uh networks that they're trying to build up um that that's going to be a really important space for us to keep an eye on how do you monitor that yeah that's a a little bit outside of my expertise I've got uh some some great colleagues that look into that um a bit more closely but um yeah I mean it's in in many ways think of it the same way that we try to monitor you know disinformation that has historically come from Russia and from Iran and from other places um and how that impacts you know our own systems um and thinking about how much more depth there might be if a lot of the digital ecosystem was developed by Russian programmers and by developed by Russian Engineers um so that not only are they kind of doing utilizing the um the the soft Dimensions but they also can control the hard dimensions of of that infrastructure so um I'll I'll leave it to the cyber security folks that uh that actually understand how that technology works but thinking about what that footprint could mean um I think is an important question and again I think it creates a sense it should create a sense of urgency um in the United States and Europe and Japan and elsewhere um that if we can't provide you know credible Alternatives and affordable alternatives to help build out um the the digital ecosystem and help with the digital transition for a lot of the countries in the global South then you know China's going to be a really useful partner to them and um you know they they may not have the luxury of of you know choosing a more expensive system from a a Japanese or european supplier um or you know take taking the American kind of digital footprint and you know bring it into their country um so I think that that should be a real Focus um for for the liberal democracies of the world um over the next like 10 to 15 years is how can we compete with China um in expanding that digital footprint and um sort of helping a lot of these countries uh with their own digital transitions Jay Gunter you've given us a lot to think about senior Analyst at the marketer Institute for China studies thank you so much yeah thanks for having me

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Length: 24min 25sec (1465 seconds)

Published: Wed Oct 18 2023