What Could the Collapse of Russia Look Like?

impasse or even out trying to defeat on the front line economic and communication are collapse reduction of the provincial budget with increasing transfers to the core protests and attempts at greater autonomy for individual regions these are just the beginning of a hypothetical cause and effect model that could lead to the third major collapse of the world's largest country in the last hundred years and some of these developments are already taking place such a scenario play out which regions might seek the session first in the second episode of our series on the possible breakup of the Russian Federation we'll look at the course of events in such a scenario welcome to the 20s report [Music] leaving a like if you enjoyed the video to edit the algorithm in the previous episode we talked about the motives for which the next collapse of a Moscow centered state is not necessarily A purely theoretical event for a better understanding of the context presented here we invite you to check out that first episode 1917 with the collapse of the tsaris Russia and 1991 with the collapse of the USSR showed that moscow's centuries-old imperialist project has regular Cycles culminating in The Agony and the death of a structurally inefficient system the war in Ukraine is the Catalyst for a whole spectrum of problems involving the macroeconomic social geographical as well as those bound to the apparatus of power all this consumes the Colossus centralized around Moscow assessment of the war in Ukraine remains highly subjective the theory of victory for each Observer varies the ukrainians suffered huge human and economic losses but contrary to the expectations of most defended their independence with the Russians at Kiev and made the spectacular reconquest of territories lost at the beginning of the war such as harkiv and Herson there are also a number of factors that are difficult to measure such as kiev's close Riya prone Schmo with Western structures or even more importantly the largest state building process in the country's history and the reconciliation of a historically divided nation this is perhaps the most important moment in Ukrainian history surpassing even the Cossack uprisings of the 17th century conversely in the case of Moscow the profit and loss account is unequivocally catastrophic as a result of the war its military potential has been drastically reduced due to war expenditures and Draconian sanctions the economy is entering a deep crisis geopolitically it is one big disaster Moscow started 2022 from an extremely strong position of power a year later it lost Ukraine for good in the north with the accession of Finland and Sweden NATO came to within an artillery salvos distance from Russia's historic Capital Saint Petersburg and cut Russia off from the Baltic Sea through full control of the Gulf of Finland the countries of Central Asia are breaking away from their status of moscow's colony while Europeans who are the most important customers of Russia's most important exports fossil fuels have been lost for the foreseeable future on the other hand always looking for leverage moscow's imperialist Elite is increasingly becoming a vassal state of the People's Republic of China Russia from its position as a superpower aspiring to join the sino-american duopoly has slips to being a mere terrorist Junior partner under China foreign policy is often a function of domestic policy but this relationship also works the other way around fatal settlements in the international Arena are one of the strongest imperatives for the instability and even collapse of States especially those overstretched and burdened by multiple social cultural and the geographical barriers such was the final nail in the coffin of tsarist Russia in 1917 and Soviet Russia in 1991. Putin's Russia of 2023 is repeating this rhythm so roughly speaking what might the process of breakup of the Russian Federation look like at the time of writing the phrase the defeat of the Russian Federation in Ukraine is a controversial statement but indefinite impasse is not however both result in economic Armageddon for the kremlin's public finances only two and a half months into 2023 and Moscow has already fallen into a deficit level intended for the whole year the sanctions and their successive iterations are multiplying problems which are constantly compounding tax declines from raw material sales reached 50 percent year on year the price of Russian ural's crude oil is approaching the price of 45 dollars the lowest in two years and almost 30 dollars less than brand at this price production at most Russian Fields is becoming unprofitable the sale of hydrocarbons to China and India only partially helps the situation as both Beijing and Delhi are taking advantage of moscow's weakness and buying it at large discounts concurrently there is a collapse in Imports and an exodus of many specialized companies while the lack of cheeseburgers and new Mercedes cars is less of a problem the lack of specialized equipment for industry including machinery and semiconductors which Russia does not produce itself and has imported entirely from the West is a massive challenge the primitivization of military production is already a reality with Optical systems for tanks or integrated circuits for missiles beginning to be in short supply or simply not available yes Chinese components can replace part of the demand but first they take a long time to integrate second they are often inferior to Western ones and third the Chinese May simply not want to sell them to Russians for the fear of Western sanctions and losing markets far more important than the Russian one military production is a pressing problem but perhaps an even greater problem is communication Decay also a result of moscow's isolation in the world's largest country one that is extremely centralized and stretches across 11 time zones good connectivity is fundamental to maintaining internal cohesion meanwhile the volume of earth right traffic in Russia fell by almost 60 percent in 2022 this is a result of lower transport volumes but there are also technical problems for example suhoi superjet 100 aircraft are close to being grounded the reason a shortage of French produced spark plugs for engines the supply of spur parts will lead to diminishing air traffic noticeable declines have also been recorded in Russian rail traffic these are events that are underway viewed from a bird's eye view these processes leads to Soaring poverty levels pronounced socio-economic inequalities declining federal financial subsidies deteriorating local infrastructure and state connectivity environmental disasters failing Health Services rampant corruption inflation and increasing alienation of the population from centralized decision making the disproportion of national minorities among the victims of the war in Ukraine should also not be forgotten the scale of the problems and their accumulation depends on the region and social class concerned but the process is most severally affecting the poorest inhabitants of Russia's provinces is the publicly accused wrongdoer for this state of averse is often not the Kremlin or at least not yet the role of well-paid scapegoat here is played by a local Baron Governor administrator or whatever you want to call him appointed on moscow's behalf it is he thoroughly corrupt driving the latest model Bentley who steals the money sent from Moscow this is a popular image among Russian locals as long as Moscow signals that it is in control of the situation and therefore the local Baron has enough resources to maintain relative calm in the province and the state of his bank accounts does not drastically decrease the system works nevertheless when public sentiment degrades and the first large-scale protests emerge then the situation for the Barons could become uncomfortable on the one hand they will be attacked most often verbally though perhaps also physically by local people who will demand that they fulfill their local duties and Regional loyalties on the other hand they will be pressured by the Kremlin which expects regular transfers to the core and the suppression of unrest in this scenario particularly in resource and Industrial regions there may be a very strong Temptation for the Barons to cut their existing ties with Moscow and to join the people this would not be the first time this has happened in 2020 Mass protests in haberos erupted following the arrest by the central authorities of Sergey fergal the local Governor or in our nomenclature Baron furgal who was a member of the opposition party but above all he was respected by local residents and cared about the region he governed enough reason to present an acute threat to the Kremlin especially given that distance from Moscow as his popularity was a threat he was eventually sentenced to 22 years for murders he allegedly had committed 15 years earlier the protest eventually subsided because moscow's central control was still strong it might also happen that the local Baron fearing furga's fate will prove loyal to the tar then inevitably there will be new claimants to the local Throne who will call for greater economic autonomy and the overthrow of the baron and power is held only by he who has the populace behind him then there is the human factor president prime minister other ministers suddenly there will be many new vacancies in the power structures of new hypothetical States The Narrative will shift by 180 degrees Moscow will increasingly be seen as an exploitive Colonial Metropolis as long as the regime has the resources to suppress or manage crisis within the Empire the situation remains calm however everything can change in the blink of an eye when the system is tested and proves inefficient in the 22 non-russian republics such as bashkaria and statistan ethnic issues which Moscow has for years tried to drown out and replace with Russian culture and language will come to the fore while the ethnic divide will exacerbate the divisions the more significant Motif is a breakdown in the Kremlin Baron the people axis for it is on the vertical arrangement of power that the entire Russian model of control rests the power structure in the present Russian Federation is much more fragile than in the Soviet Union a narrow group of individuals has replaced the Communist party and everything rests on the leader from whom there is an undefined or rather absent succession mechanism nevertheless in the event of the emergence of the first movements demanding greater autonomy or even secession the current state apparatus in order to maintain power will have to take counter measures there are essentially two options now a moment for our sponsor thanks to them we can continue our Endeavor in today's episode we are supported by speakling holidays and international trips time are approaching sightseeing is one thing but being able to talk to locals and soak up the culture in their native language is what really enriches the whole experience even talking in a restaurant and ordering a meal in another language allows you to build a relationship and gives you tremendous Joy traveling opens Horizons and learning a language can expand them even more specially we'll help you with this it is an application created by two polyglots who speak seven languages they have created a unique learning method that allows you to learn up to five times faster than standard methods you learn only the words and phrases you need for everyday situations if speakly can choose to focus on writing pronunciation listening or a combination of all your language learning needs Thrice weekly for free for seven days and get a c 60 percent discount on a one-year learning plan the Chechen model or violent pacification is the most natural Moscow aggressively suppresses the protests the rebel leader is arrested and the rebellious region serves as a warning to the others the Kremlin will also attempt to ethnically scapegoat the locals portraying them as violent separatists thus an existential threat to Russia and its citizens classic divide and troll tactics the problem is that Moscow waging a major conventional war in Ukraine may not have the resources too decisively and demonstratively punish their rebellious Province the Kremlin had conducted such a punitive operation in chechnya for years while not engaged in a war abroad moreover promoting ethnic and religious hatred would further destroy National and social cohesion and convince a large part of the Muslim population that Russia is becoming their existential threat the risks would be enormous a failed military intervention of this kind would completely delegitimize the central government in the eyes of the other provinces seeing the lack of core control a wave of autonomous and secessionist movements would spread and become impossible to control militarily in so many places at once fearing such a scenario the cramming Elite May opt for a soft one in order to preserve internal cohesion and not risk the resources of their repressive apparatus they meet Region's aspirations there is either a broadening of autonomy or full secession especially if it is a province of marginal importance while this is the safer option its effects can be exactly the same other local Warlords seeing the kremlin's softness May then conjure similar expectations each one demanding greater autonomy or Independence and Moscow again faces the same existential problem moreover any submissiveness would certainly be noted within the capital city Elites an ultra-nationalist and imperialist faction could grow in strength and demand a Hardline Crackdown on the national traitors all the more so as growing this content within the power elite is a natural result of their current situation as the National Economic pie shrinks the Pyramid of State paternalism favoring certain interest groups will become increasingly unstable conflict within the elite May materialize from dwindling resources and some individuals will seek to use social unrest against their Rivals added to this is their military which Remains the most important resource in such a situation Whoever has the men under arms will rule already today it can be said that the Kremlin does not control all of its military potential Evgeni pregojin the owner of the private Army Wagner PMC and terramson kaderov with his Chechen Army are de facto not subject to Kremlin control they will be subject to even less in times of Chaos thus both response scenarios to National fractures lead to essentially the same results so to sum up Regional Elites will conclude that the costs of maintaining loyalty to Moscow outweigh its benefits and will opt for greater Regional sovereignty once they no longer trust the Kremlin to provide them with political legitimacy and the necessary resources they will promote their own power base as the authentic leaders of the republics or regions the initial rupture of the state may be limited in the midst of economic difficulties and political chaos one or more Federal entities may eventually emerge that said what could the new borders look like the secession of which regions is most likely historically there are many candidates aseanors Bugis lists among the Nations who can prove their historical claims from before Russia's Imperial Conquest are tatars bash courts caralians udmuds Moksha erzia Mari chircasians balkars chechens English kalniks kakas Altis buriats tuvans and Saka a number of indigenous peoples can claim their right to self-determination under the U.N Charter and the 2017 U.N Declaration on the rights of indigenous peoples they will assert the rights to their traditional territories and resources and administrative self-determination the truth is that National uprisings are no novelty in Russia both previous breakups were accompanied by aspirations for Independence the successful ones are known today as independent states While others ultimately proved unsuccessful in 1918 simultaneous uprisings broke out in chechnya osetia and in gushettia at the same time the bashki Republic which the tatars also wanted to join declared independence as late as November 1917 the Black Sea Republic was proclaimed with its capital in novorosis this was followed by the independence of stavropol Cuban and the Crimea as the taurida Republic a Siberian provisional government was also established in tomsk while National ethnic issues would certainly play an important role they would probably not be the most vital motive for the split a stronger rationale could be economic and social issues and this means that secession could be sought by virtually any region that feels exploited by the Kremlin including one with ethnic Russians as the dominant social group these two would be nothing new that Ural Republic was established in 1993. more on this in a moment in the event of a weakening of Kremlin control geography would traditionally play its part distance and the level of colonial exploitation make the most likely candidates for secession the Region's furthest from Moscow Siberia and the Far East so potentially the Siberian Republic and the Far Eastern Republic whose territorial scope would include several regions and oblasts let's point out that the outset that drawing potential borders is more of a game and an intellectual exercise than an actual prediction there are too many variables to predict this with any degree of certainty also for the sake of Simplicity let's assume that following the example of post-colonial Africa the new post-russian States would also retain the borders drawn by their colonizers let's start with perhaps the most important piece in the whole puzzle Siberia during the post-saris Civil Wars Siberian regionalists who claimed a separate identity and sought to emulate the American War of Independence against Russian colonial rule formed a provisional government of autonomous Siberia in January 1918. however this was dismantled by the Bolsheviks nevertheless a significant amount of ethnic Russians May support the sovereignty or secession of regions with which they have much more in common than with Moscow despite their common language the new Siberian Republic could include Saka Magadan tukotka and Kamchatka the 7 million square kilometers of territory would put the country on par with Australia the country due to its low population density would have a modest 4 million inhabitants while the economy of 55 billion dollars put it on a level slightly higher than Uganda and smaller than Lithuania the most natural candidates for the capital would be krasnoirs and tianakos the low economic level of the new entrance is a natural result of low population density and also years of capital and human transfers to Moscow and the overall inefficiency of the Russian system to utilize the potential of this resource-rich areas the Far East is one of the most rebellious provinces today with a strong autonomy movement the 2020 RS in haberos of the aforementioned furgal caused big protests the Far Eastern Republic would potentially include the following oblasts regions and cries primorski sahalin khabarovsk Jewish Amur zabaikalski boriatia irkusk tuva altai and kakasi the country would have a population of some 10 million and start with an economy of 90 billion slightly more than Bulgaria and smaller than Slovakia this also shows how the potential of this area is drained which with an area of over 3 million square kilometers would be the seventh largest country in the world leapfrogging India and others the most natural candidates for capital cities are Vladivostok habarovsk or irkusk both new States Siberia and the Far East redirecting the potential of their people and lands to their needs have the prospects to rapidly improve their local economies while good connectivity with East Asia through Pacific ports would make the chances of further development promising strong secessionist Tendencies may also be exhibited in the central Volga region resulting in The Rebirth of the idal Ural State this was a short-lived independent republic proclaimed in March 1918. in the tatarsan capital Kazan ensuring the unification of tataras bashkiris chuvash and other peoples and their Liberation from the Russian Empire it encompassed present-day tatarstan bash cortostan with some activists even demanding parts of the Caspian Coast after the collapse of the USSR both tatters and bhaskars attempted to gain independence by peaceful means but Moscow eventually quashed these debates today's incarnation of the central Volga region promoted by the free idal Ural movement would include the republics of tatarsan bash kortostan chuvasia Mariel udmurtia and mordovia with the latter renamed to erziano Moksha in recognition of the two Nations that comprise it the new Idol Ural State could be a confederation in which each Republic could conduct its own internal and foreign policy some activists proposed that the Kami Republic perum cry and orenberg oblast be included in the larger confederation so that the new state could share a border with Kazakhstan the new Confederate State of idal Ural would have a population of over 17 million or roughly the size of Kazakhstan a GDP of over 100 billion dollars fifty percent larger than Uzbekistan and half the size of kazakhstan's the capital could be in Kazan or UFA as both cities are major metropolitan areas the tatars and bashkids have their own independence movements and if there were to be an upheaval within the Federation we would certainly witness their Revival some bashkers are already fighting on the side of Ukraine today economically the state could also have grounds for self-determination as it is already the industrial base of the Russian Federation in practice it will be the sixth Republic of Central Asia and economically strongest after Kazakhstan inter-republican initiatives can also include the Revival of the independent Mountain Republic of the north Caucasus which existed between 1918 and 1922. the confederative Republic included seven constituent States Dagestan chechnya ingushettia osetia circusia abhazia and the nogai steps the Caucasus Melting Pot rather prevents the formation of a unitary state but a loose Confederation would be possible the 8 million strong population will be twice that of neighboring Georgia however the GDP of both countries would be virtually the same at 25 billion dollars the stronger secessionist Tendencies of Siberia the Far East and the central Volga region would split the present Russian Federation in half isolating the largely Russian regions beyond the Ural Mountains but this area has also sought secession from Moscow throughout its history the Ural Republic was established on the basis of a referendum held on 12th of April 1993 but the project was ultimately quashed the regions east of Ural could join the emerging blocks or form the new Ural Republic this could include the following regionski sverdlovsk chalabinsk kurgan tuman Omsk tomsk Nova sibersk camerovo and altai cry this could be an interesting creation as the Ural Republic would start with the strongest economy of the entities listed so far apart from Moscow and Saint Petersburg it is the economically strongest part of the Russian Federation its GDP would reach nearly 200 billion dollars close to that of Kazakhstan and about the size of Greece the 25 million inhabitants would even exceed Kazakhstan current population the capital could be novosibirsk or ekaterinburg both being the largest cities in the Russian Federation after Moscow and Saint Petersburg naturally the status of kaliningrad would be in question the polls would not agree to its incorporation into the Federal Republic of Germany whereas a division between Poland and Lithuania is also questionable due to potentially major ethnic problems the most legitimate option is the disarmament of the oblast and the creation of a fourth Baltic Republic which would have the prospect of joining the European Union a European kalingrad with a GDP of 7 billion dollars and half a million inhabitants would economically start from the level of current day Montenegro the closer to Moscow the less likely secessionist Tendencies become all the more so because as we mentioned the Nationalist movement whose aim would be to create a monoethnic State located around Moscow would run its game the regions that would remain loyal to Moscow in such a scenario would go on to form the economically strongest entity after the breakup as was the case with Russia after the collapse of the USSR with a GDP of 1.2 trillion dollars it is currently at the level of the Netherlands Mexico or Indonesia the population of the Moscow Republic over 70 million is slightly more than the current population of the UK or France thus Moscow would continue to be a significant player on the international stage but without the Ural Siberian and Far Eastern regions the Kremlin would definitely have to abandon the illusions of being a superpower its Imperial Ambitions although certainly still present would be unvisible without access to the raw material and Industrial base of the regions that seceded once again it should be noted that drawing the borders on the map like this is more of a game but nevertheless it can help us to see something more the separated entities would deplete the GDP of the Russian Federation by only 25 percent while accounting for more than 80 percent of its current territory and 45 of the population what's more many residents of Moscow and the surrounding area are immigrants from these provinces these disproportions unquestionably show how hyper centralization hampers the development of the province and the drains its resources in the final episode of this series we'll look at the problems that the breakup of the Russian Colossus would generate the impact on the domestic situation and the global geopolitical implications on the near abroad and Beyond we hope you will join us until next time in a recent discussion with a YouTube analyst she advised me to ask our audience for direct reactions to help the channel grow so if you enjoyed this material please give it a thumbs up or leave a comment to improve the algorithm you might also consider supporting us on patreon

Channel: Good Times Bad Times

Views: 497,402

Keywords: Collapse of Russia, Fall of Russia, What could the collapse of Russia look like, What regions could Russia collapse into, Will Russia collapse?, Scenario of the collapse of the Russian Federation, Siberian Republic, Far Eastern Republic, Ural Republic, Idel Ural, Bashkortostan, Tatarstan, Khabarovsk, Putin, Chechnya, Kadyrov, Good Times Bad Times

Id: ZKcqZNLqDpM

Length: 29min 46sec (1786 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 13 2023