April 2024 has arguably been one of the most
challenging months for Ukraine since the start of the invasion. Russia is making almost daily gains
in Donbas, which has not been the case since the first months of the war. Ukraine is struggling
due to a manpower disadvantage caused by delays in the adoption of the new mobilization bill.
Due to the delays in American aid, Russia has been enjoying a massive firepower advantage
in recent months as well. However, the only really good news for Ukraine is that the United
States has finally approved the Ukraine aid bill, which will help Kyiv mitigate the latter issue.
Welcome to our update on the war in Ukraine. The fans of modern warfare would surely enjoy our
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much more. Thanks for supporting us! BATTLEFIELD
In April, Russia continued putting immense pressure on Ukrainian lines in the Donetsk
oblast. One of their main focuses is Chasiv Yar, a town west of Bakhmut, which has a major strategic
significance. We have dedicated a separate video on the battle of Chasiv Yar, so, you can go
ahead and check it out to understand why this battle is so important, but just to reiterate:
after capturing Bohdanivka and advancing west of Ivanivske, the Russian army approached Chasiv Yar
in April. Military analysts expect the Russians to conduct their offensive in a manner similar to
the battle in Bakhmut. They will attempt to attack from the north and the south to cut some of the
supply lines into the town, along with launching a frontal assault. The challenge for the Russian
army is that Chasiv Yar lies on an elevation, which gives Ukrainians a defensive advantage. The
town is also protected by a canal in its east, but according to several sources, Russians
managed to cross it on April 30. If that is true, it means that the Russian army is now one step
closer to victory in this battle. The capture of Chasiv Yar would give the Russian army a great
launching pad for further offensive operations on the remaining fortress cities of Donbas
- Konstantynivka, Druzhkivka and eventually Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The deputy chief
of the Ukrainian military intelligence, Skibitsky gave a rather sobering assessment
of Ukraine’s situation in Chasiv Yar, stating in an interview to the Economist that it is
probably a matter of time before this town falls. Russia also achieved an important advance
west of Avdiivka. After losing Avdiivka, the Ukrainian army managed to
stabilize the situation initially, but in April, the Russians managed a breakthrough
in this sector. It is reported that on April 22, the 47th Mechanized Brigade was pulling back
from the frontline village of Ocheretyne to be substituted by the 115th Mechanized
Brigade, but the error in the timing of the rotation or the collapse of the 115th
Brigade enabled the 30th and the 27th Russian Brigades to swiftly capture most of Ocheretyne.
Russians took advantage of this breakthrough and, within a week, captured Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi,
Semenivka, Novokalynove and Keramik, along with occupying Novomykhailovka and entering Netailove
and Krasnohorivka further south. According to analyst Konrad Muzyka, Russians have brought
around 20 new units to the Donetsk oblast to take advantage of this success. The only consolation
for Ukraine is that Russians did not attempt a truly mechanized breakthrough to capitalize on
disarray in the Ukrainian lines around Ocheretyne. The conventional military wisdom says that if
you create a wedge in the enemy’s defences, you should send in tanks to push forward to the
rear of the enemy, forcing the enemy lines to collapse. However, either due to the absence
of truly mechanized forces or out of caution, the Russian command decided against doing this.
They have instead chosen to progress slowly. What does this breakthrough mean? The primary goal
of the Ocheretyne axis of the Russian attack is Pokrovsk - a strategically important supply
hub on the intersection of several highways. But Pokrovsk is more than 30 kilometres away
from the frontline, so barring a truly major collapse of the Ukrainian front on this axis,
it is not a given that Russians will reach this city. If the Russian pressure on Ukrainian
defenses in this area becomes too unbearable, they will have to retreat to Prohres, the nearest
town with the known defensive line along the river Vovche. Russians are also pushing along the E50
highway and along the N15 highway to Kurakhove, another important supply hub. The further the
Russians advance, the further supply problems Ukrainian forces between those highways are
going to have, forcing them to withdraw to avoid encirclement. So, at this point, the Russians are
putting immense pressure on the Ukrainian defenses on a broad front, from Chasiv Yar to Heorhiivka. A
Ukrainian collapse anywhere on this front might be disastrous for their defense of Donbas. Ukraine is
facing arguably the most threatening situation on the battlefield since the early days of the war.
The situation on other fronts in Ukraine has remained stable. Russia has seemingly given up
on its attempts to advance on the North Luhansk front. After months of fighting, hundreds
of destroyed equipment and thousands of dead and injured, Russia failed to achieve any
meaningful success in the Kupiansk axis. They have reportedly withdrawn some units from this
area and have redeployed them to Belgorod oblast, possibly in preparation for an attack on Kharkiv.
Statements of Putin and the Russian foreign minister Lavrov about the necessity to create a
cordon sanitaire along the border with Ukraine in order to prevent Ukraine from shelling the Russian
territory, along with reports about the massing of forces in Belgorod, indicate that Russia may
indeed attack Kharkiv. But even if they do not, these speculations force Ukrainians to commit
troops to the defense of Kharkiv. Russians did the same thing earlier with Kyiv, prompting
Ukrainians to deploy more troops to their northern border. On the Zaporizhia front, Russia
has not managed any meaningful gains in April, as battles are still going on in the same areas
- Robotyne, Verbove and Urozhaine. Along Dnipro, Ukraine still maintains a small bridgehead
in Krynki, which has become a sight of costly battles for both sides.
WHAT CAUSED THE RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH IN DONETSK OBLAST?
So, what has caused the Russian breakthrough in Donetsk oblast? Military analysts
point out three main reasons. First of all, manpower disadvantage. The Ukrainian commander
General Lieutenant Sodol stated in the Ukrainian parliament that Russians have a 7-10-fold manpower
advantage in some areas of the battlefield. In some cases, a brigade has to defend a 15-kilometer
line instead of a 5 kilometer line. This obviously puts a massive strain on Ukrainian forces
and stretches them to their limits. But why has that happened? Why do Ukrainians have fewer
soldiers? Well, it is a self-inflicted problem to a large extent. The Ukrainian government has
been trying to avoid making the unpopular decision of adopting a mobilization bill and even after
concluding that the only way of going forward is the draft of more Ukrainians into the army,
the decision-making process has been very slow. The Ukrainian opposition in the parliament also
campaigned against some provisions of the bill, further delaying the process. War, by definition,
is full of unpopular decisions. In some cases, you cannot simply avoid them. If you intend to
fight and give yourself a chance of success, you have to make these hard decisions, often having
to choose between two or more evils, even if it harms your reputation and political career. After
months of stalling and deliberation, on April 11, the Ukrainian parliament finally adopted the
mobilization bill lowering the draft age from 27 to 25, which expanded the pool of available
manpower for the Ukrainian army. Zelensky signed the bill on April 16. Thousands of Ukrainians
have fled the war to Poland and Lithuania, the governments of which have offered to repatriate
Ukrainian men to make them available to be drafted into the Ukrainian army. Some decisions are being
made, but it will take weeks or even months before existing Ukrainian brigades are replenished and
the new ones are created, so, Ukraine may continue facing manpower shortages for the upcoming weeks
at the least. The second cause of Ukrainian troubles on the battlefield is pretty obvious and
by now well documented too. The delay of American military aid. Europe has compensated for this
delay to an extent, but its military industrial capacity is just not big enough to supply the
Ukrainian army on a sufficient level. There are significant shortages of artillery shells and air
defense systems and missiles. According to the US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General
Christopher Cavoli, Russia currently has a five-to-one artillery advantage on the battlefield
and it could become a 10 to 1 advantage, if the US fails to send shells to Ukraine. The lack of
air defense systems forces the Ukrainian command to decide between protecting cities, energy
infrastructure, industrial enterprises and other key components of the Ukrainian livelihood.
The lack of mobile and short range air defense systems closer to the contact line have allowed
the Russian fighters and bombers to roam the skies of the frontlines like never before in
this war. The lack of air defense missiles forces Ukraine to ration and prevents them from
shooting down Russian missiles and drones. All of this continues having a very tangible impact on
Ukraine’s desperate attempts to defend. Zelensky insists that Ukraine needs 26 Patriots launchers
to have air protection throughout the country, but it seems like the initial urgent goal is to get 7
Patriots as soon as possible. The foreign minister Kuleba’s frustration with his western counterparts
was vivid during the meeting celebrating NATO’s 75th anniversary: “I’m sorry to spoil the birthday
party, but who can believe that the mightiest military alliance in the world cannot find seven
batteries of Patriots to provide them to the only country in the world that is fighting ballistic
attacks every day?” He then added: “I feel myself hitting the wall with my own head, although I’m a
diplomat, and that means I have to dismantle the wall brick by brick”. So far, despite heavy
diplomatic activity only Germany pledged an additional Patriot system in April, along with
promising more air defense missiles, while the Dutch prime minister Rutte offered to buy Patriot
systems from countries which do not wish to give them to Kyiv directly. The German Diehl Defense
company has also pledged to send another Iris-T in the upcoming weeks. F-16s pledged by several
allies have obviously not arrived in Ukraine yet, but they would help considerably in preventing
the Russian jets from operating freely on the frontlines, along with shooting down Russian
missiles. The timeline of arrival of promised F-16s is not clear yet, whether in order to take
advantage of an element of surprise or due to some unknown logistical or training-related
delays. The Dutch defense minister has said that the allies hope to deliver the jets in
the Summer, which Zelensky claims to cover only 10% of the number of jets that Ukraine needs.
But the situation for Ukraine may change with the breakthrough in Washington. After months of delays
and negotiations, the US Congress finally approved 61 billion of dollars for aid to Ukraine on April
21. A few days later, the Senate did the same. 23 billion dollars would be spent on restocking
the US military, which would allow the Americans to send military equipment from the Pentagon’s
reserves. 14 billion dollars will be allocated to the Ukraine Security Assistance initiative
enabling the US military to purchase new weapons for Kyiv directly from the US defense companies.
11 billion will be spent on funding the existing American military operations in the region and
supporting Ukraine with intelligence. Finally, up to 8 billion will be given to Kyiv
to help maintain government services, including the payment of salaries and pensions.
Ukraine is relieved to finally get a decision they expected from Washington, but as you can see,
not all of the money allocated by the Congress will actually be spent on Ukraine. Moreover, it
may take weeks for the American aid to arrive, which are weeks that the Kremlin will look to
exploit to push further. Many question whether this aid alone will be sufficient to even achieve
firepower parity with the Russian army or if the United States commits to further military aid in
case the war goes on for even longer. For now, the US has already announced military aid packages,
which contain some of the immediate equipment that the Ukrainian army desperately needs. On
April 24, they pledged RIM-7 and AIM-9M air defense missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
and artillery shells of different kinds. The third cause of the recent Russian success is attributed
to the poor defensive lines that the Ukrainian army has. In previous videos, we have talked about
this issue in more detail, but just to reiterate the main problems that Ukraine faces in this
regard - the construction of fortifications is often slow due to money and personnel shortages;
Ukrainian soldiers are often forced to do the work under intense enemy fire; the Russian glide
bombs have so far proved to be very potent against Ukrainian fortifications; the Ukrainian
defense continues to rely mostly on strongholds, which are vulnerable to flanking and once a
stronghold falls or breached, there is often no alternative defensive lines nearby to fall back
to. Ukraine’s summer 2023 counteroffensive has proven the advantage of continuous defensive
lines consisting of minefields, trenches and fortifications against offensive operations.
What about the Russian army? Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines and many military analysts
conclude that the Russian army has been learning from its mistakes and adapting to the situation
way better than during the early disastrous months of the war. Obviously, the manpower advantage is
also making a decisive difference at the moment. The Russian ministry of defense claims that 100k
Russians have signed contracts to join the army in 2024. Rumours of further personnel mobilization
in Russia continue to circulate. According to the US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General
Christopher Cavoli, the Russian invasion force has increased from 360k men to 470k in comparison
with 2023. Bloomberg reported about the increase of one-time payments for contracts signed with the
military to almost 5000 dollars, which is a major sum for an ordinary Russian. This is accompanied
by increased military production in Russia, which we have discussed in previous videos. In
his interview to the Economist, Skibitskyi noted that Russia’s military production has increased,
but will reach its full potential in 2026, which is a long time from now and much will depend on
the ability and willingness of Ukraine’s western allies to continue supporting Kyiv in the mid and
long-term. The war in Ukraine has made joining the military and the military industrial complex
attractive options for many Russians, particularly those suffering from lower standards of living.
Along with the increased production, Russians are also adapting their equipment to the challenges
arising on the battlefield. According to reports, the effectiveness of Excalibur GPS-guided
munitions has decreased from 70% early on in their use to a mere 6% due to the improvement of Russian
electronic warfare tools. We have seen many videos of Russian armor being destroyed by FPV drones
and Russians have been looking for solutions to protect them. Lately, they have been adding metal
defensive covers on tanks and armored vehicles. They look amusing, but they actually manage to
protect their vehicles to a certain extent. So, the Russian army is adapting, but this does not
mean that Russian mobilized soldiers have suddenly started fighting better than the professional
soldiers they had at the beginning of the war or that Shoigu and other Russian generals have
suddenly become better commanders and strategists. No, the key reason for the recent Russian
success is the overwhelming manpower and firepower advantage arising from the
reasons we have already discussed.
MILITARY PRODUCTION AND FOREIGN AID
We have already mentioned some information about foreign military aid to Ukraine delivered
or pledged in April, the highlight of which is obviously the American decision that we talked
about earlier. The first American military aid package since the signing of the Ukraine aid bill
included Bradley Infantry fighting vehicles, MRAP vehicles; Humvees, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4
anti-tank guns, mines and other vital equipment, along with earlier mentioned sending artillery
shells and air defense missiles. But perhaps more importantly, Americans have confirmed the delivery
of an unspecified number of ATACMS missiles with a 300-km range. Ukraine has already used them
on high value targets in April. The US has also announced the transfer of weapons seized from
Iran, which consisted of small arms and bullets for them, along with approving the potential sale
of equipment to modernize Kyiv’s HAWK air defense systems. On April 26, the Pentagon chief Lloyd
Austin announced America’s largest yet military aid package, which includes ammunition for
Patriot, HIMARS and NASAMS, artillery shells, anti-drone equipment and air to surface missiles.
Lastly, Americans have also reportedly purchased 81 outdated Su-24, Mig-29 and Mig-27 fighter
jets from Kazakhstan, which are expected to be delivered to Ukraine for use as spare parts.
On April 3, the Finnish president Stubb signed a 10-year security deal with Ukraine and pledged
188 million euros worth of military aid and an additional 290 million euros for humanitarian
purposes. A day later, Latvia announced sending 1 million euros worth of drones and a 22.2 million
euro-worth military aid package. Latvia has also signed a security agreement with Ukraine, wherein
Riga commits to sending 0.25% of its annual GDP to Ukraine. On April 6, Latvia’s Baltic neighbors
stepped up too. Lithuania delivered an unspecified number of M577 armored personnel carriers, while
Estonia’s defense minister Pevkur announced their intention to coordinate the purchase of one
million shells for the Ukrainian army. It is important to note that this initiative is separate
from the similar Czech endeavor launched earlier. On April 9, the German Rheinmetall corporation
announced the delivery of 20 more Marder Infantry Fighting vehicles, while the German government
pledged to send 6000 155mm artillery shells, small arms and other equipment. Denmark also
took several steps to improve the situation of the Ukrainian military. First, on April 16, they
announced a 313 million dollar worth military aid package, while 3 days later the Danish government
allocated almost 30 million dollars for purchase of military equipment produced in Ukraine, by
Ukrainian companies. The purpose was to aid both the Ukrainian army and its military industrial
production. According to the Ukrainian minister of strategic industries Kamyshin, the Ukrainian
budget lags behind the country’s capacity to produce military equipment and Western allies may
help to bridge this gap. Ukraine has been taking important steps in increasing domestic military
production focusing on production of drones, but they are stepping up in other areas
too. According to Zelensky, for the first time, Ukraine has produced 10 Bohdana
self-propelled howitzers in a single month. On April 17, Canada pledged to provide more than
1 billion dollars worth of military aid over the next 5 years. On April 23, Britain announced a
500-million pound military aid package to Kyiv, its largest since the start of the war.
It includes over 400 unspecified vehicles, ammunition, 60 boats, air defense equipment,
Storm Shadow long-range missiles and Paveway IV laser-guided bombs compatible with F-16
jets. On April 26, Norway announced funding for maintenance of Leopard tanks in Poland, while
Australia declared a 100 million Australian dollar military aid package, which includes drones, short
range air defense, precision munition and so on. Meanwhile, China is reportedly becoming more and
more supportive of Russia, despite its earlier attempts to appear neutral. The Chinese leader
Xi Jinping has called on Europe to stop giving weapons to Ukraine and start negotiating
with Russia. According to Bloomberg, China is helping Russia with dual use technology
like microelectronics, optics, machine tools, propellants for missiles and nitrocellulose used
in the production of gunpowder and explosives. During his visit to China and meeting with Xi,
the US Secretary of state Blinken urged China to stop supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine. But
it is not entirely clear how Washington is going to persuade Beijing to do that.
THE ASYMMETRIC WARFARE CONTINUES In the meantime, the sides continued to engage in
long-range strikes and conduct asymmetric warfare to wear each other down, damage critical assets
and weaken the adversary’s ability to continue fighting. For the past few months, Russia has been
mostly targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to Ukraine’s prime minister Shmyhal,
Russian missile and drone attacks have destroyed or damaged almost 80% of the production capacity
of Ukrainian thermal power plants. Between March 22 and 29, Russia targeted 7 Thermal
power plants and 2 hydro power plants, as Ukraine’s struggles with air defense has
enabled the Russians to permanently destroy some of the country’s critical infrastructure.
On April 11, Russia launched another devastating airborne attack using more than 80 missiles,
including the newest Kh-69 missile and drones to destroy Kyiv’s Trypillya thermal power plant,
which supplied energy to Kyiv, Zhytomyr and Cherkasy oblasts. Two more thermal power plants
were also damaged in West Ukraine as a result of this attack. Another major attack on the Ukrainian
power grid was launched on April 26, which targeted the infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk,
Ivano-Frankivsk and Lviv oblasts. Ukrainians are already experiencing power shortages, even
though the western allies are trying to alleviate the situation by giving emergency aid to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s critical infrastructure will continue to be vulnerable to missile and drone strikes until
it has more air defense systems and missiles. Also according to Western governments and
media outlets, Russia has been attempting and carrying out various sabotage operations
to disrupt production and delivery of military aid to Ukraine. There have been reports of cyber
attacks on Czech, Romanian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian railway companies. The Swedish police
are investigating two earlier cases of railway derailments in the country. Poland has reportedly
thwarted an attempt of sabotage on its railways as well. On April 18, Der Spiegel reported about the
arrest of two individuals in Bavaria accused of planning a sabotage at German military industrial
facilities and American military infrastructure in Germany. On the same day, an explosion occurred
at Britain’s only 155-mm shell-producing plant, two days after a fire broke out at the Scranton
Ammunition plant in the United States. The purpose of these sabotage operations is to disrupt Western
military production destined for Ukraine, along with damaging the railway infrastructure, which is
key to the supply of military equipment to Kyiv. While Russian long-range strikes mostly target
the Ukrainian power grid, Kyiv is focusing on Russian oil refineries, military plants and other
high value targets like air defense systems and aircraft. Blinken has already publicly stated
that the United States does not support Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries. It is tough to
understand the long-term impact of these attacks and whether Russia will be able to quickly restore
the lost production capacity, but so far, it is estimated that they have lost some 15% of its oil
refining capacity. This has reportedly forced them to purchase gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus
as a contingency for potential shortages on the domestic market. On April 2 and 26, Ukraine
attacked an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk and two more oil refineries in Krasnodar Krai. Also on
April 2, a Ukrainian UJ-22 drone hit the Russian Shahed drone production facility in Yelabuga,
Tatarstan. On April 6, another drone attack was launched on several airfields, which, according
to Ukrainian sources, destroyed 6 Russian fighter jets. On April 17, an ATACMS strike on the Dzankoi
air base in Crimea reportedly damaged or destroyed Russian air defense infrastructure, including
4 S-400 air defense launchers. On April 18, Ukrainians destroyed the first Russian Tu-22M3
strategic bomber in this war. The Ukrainian army now also has ATACMS missiles and it
will be interesting to see how they will be used given the American condition of
not launching them on Russian territory.
CONCLUSION
Since the start of 2024, Russia has captured more than 360 square kilometers of
Ukrainian land. It is clear that they have the upper hand on the battlefield at this moment and
have already achieved two important victories in 2024, in Avdiivka in February and in Ocheretyne in
April, amidst Ukraine’s troubles with manpower and weapon shortages. Battles of Chasiv Yar and west
of Ocheretyne are the ones to watch at the moment and carry a grave threat to the Ukrainian defense
of Donbas. Putin has already admitted that it does not make sense for Russia to negotiate with
Ukraine at a time when they carry the strategic momentum on the battlefield. At this point,
Ukraine has to brace for defending for at least another few months, before the mobilization and
the American aid may create a different situation on the battlefield. But make no mistake, Ukraine
is facing its most difficult moment since the start of the war. Now let’s look at the visually
documented losses on both sides compiled by Oryx military blog. As of May 2, Russia has lost at
least 2948 tanks, 6402 vehicles, 276 command posts and communication stations, 1202 artillery systems
and vehicles, 369 multiple rocket launchers, 109 aircraft and 137 helicopters. Ukraine
has lost at least 797 tanks, 2517 vehicles, 18 command posts and communication stations, 556
artillery systems and vehicles, 62 multiple rocket launchers, 86 aircraft and 44 helicopters.
We’ll continue talking about this war in the coming weeks, o make sure you are subscribed
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