Two Tropical Storms Possible...

thank you very much for joining me I'm meteorologist Brian Shields and thank you for all the likes on yesterday's video I see that I do appreciate that all right let's get to this now we have this area here we have another one here little blob there we're on the back side of a tropical wave we've had some rain anywhere from Antiga uh back through Grenada we've had some rain St Von the Grenadines I'll I'll get into that but this here we could see backto back storms potentially back to back tropical storms developing right in this area I often talk about how as you get into the hurricane season you hear a lot about what the season will be like well kind of need to get there first and when you get there you start to see how patterns develop we're going to see a consistent pattern right through here that could lead to backto back storm systems and that is a huge issue for flooding an absolutely huge issue because we've already had the flooding now what's going on here in the Gulf of Mexico and in parts of the Caribbean a flare up of rainstorms this here is potential Cyclone one they they name it that so to speak it's just basically fancy way of saying hey this looks like it will be the next name system once it gets better organized so this here is going to work its way back toward Mexico and Texas with that said we're going to see another area do almost the same thing and I'll I'll show you that in a moment the immediate concern though is some of this heavier rain uh Southeastern sections of Mexico we've had some flooding now in parts of the yucatana Mexico over toward Biz of course uh over toward Guatemala there's been some Devastation with that uh El Salvador uh from El Salvador back toward Nicaragua some some pockets of very heavy rain just a big moisture feed now here's the latest uh official track on potential Cyclone 1 it should become Alberto and there are tropical storm warnings out as we work our way into Northeast Mexico and back through Texas the Hallmark of this system or the kind of main thing of this system will be the really heavy rain every tropical system has different things some are big some are small some are uh more with the they deal more with the winds versus the storm surge this one it's going to be the rain and the flooding rain with it now as this works its way this is a different map I mentioned a few videos ago the most important thing this hurricane season will be the heat content that's not just the warm water at the surface that is warm water that is warm well down deep because as that just keeps coming up underneath the storm it just continues to fuel it and where you see these yellow shadings here uh that's where we have high heat content that's where the water is warm in the of that water warm water is substantial so this area is going to roll right on top of that an area of high heat content and that's why it should get better organized before it pumps in to parts of Northeast Mexico and South Texas and then swing in a lot of rain with it and I'll get into the rain totals in a minute so let's get into a few things here here is the European model we have this broad spin now but it should get a little stronger as it passes by uh that area of high heat content and you see that flow across the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico then we have this area out here just an area of disturbed weather and the tail end of that front is also kind of been spitting some moisture behind this tropical wave that's why we had some of that rain over toward Antiga yesterday and we had some thunderstorms in some spots do have a weak tropical wave moving by uh the Eastern Caribbean now as we work our way forward this year is uh tomorrow on our Wednesday in more of a circulation here a little bit of a tighter circulation which is telling me that it is getting more uh organized and it should become Alberto sometime tomorrow but all that rain and the green there moving into Northeast Mexico and into uh Texas high pressure up here and really everything is just flowing around that area of high pressure and this could be that pattern we see into the rest of the season in which not a lot of things can really Escape because of that dominant area of high pressure also that reason why that little pocket right there is going to head back toward the southeast us but not seeing organization out of that but watching then as we go forward here this here is our Thursday so this system will be uh moving in now this system moves in the high flood potential Southeast Texas even as far inland over towards San Antonio where we need rain uh but we could get too much in some spots and then back to the South so uh then here's that other area right here moving toward the southeast us but behind this you could see here Across the Western Caribbean and Central America once again another buildup of that moisture that will lead to that flooding in many locations the runoff watching the uh the potential for some mudslides and then this here is by Friday we could get another spin another storm system just like the one we have backtack systems close in proximity close in time that will move in there's the area of high pressure just kind of filtering everything and bringing that flow through the Caribbean and bringing that moisture back through Central America and an eventual spin up is possible again either late week or this upcoming weekend and you see it right here on the European model just like we have now something may try to develop as we work our way into Saturday and on top of that even if it doesn't uh either way we're going to have some heavy rain in some of the spots that are going to get the heavier rain with this new system so not a good scenario when they follow this closely uh just because we're going to have uh increased uh flood potential that will lead to some life-threatening flooding in that what I'll watch so here's that closer look that feed of moisture from the Caribbean this here is the American model they've been pretty consistent the models have been generally showing uh the same thing with this system a broad spin that may try to uh spin up a little bit further but as we work our way into tomorrow that's when the worst weather will move in and the rain is the big issue uh Southeast Texas and back toward Northeast Mexico uh that's on top of what we're seeing in parts of Central America but that's the heaviest weather through uh starting tomorrow morning through the day tomorrow into tomorrow night you see that rain that will be working in and on Thursday morning that rain is going to stretch in this system will completely change the pattern for Mexico which has been dealing with a historic drought you could even working back uh Inland toward Mexico City that rain chance is going to be higher but then we'll be watching out for even more of a flood threat potentially by the time we get into the upcoming weekend with the backtack uh system so it's a broad spin now that's just kind of um just uh kind of a sloppy system not super organized it tries to tighten up a little bit you see it right through here the winds won't be the biggest thing with this but some of the Winds have' got the scale there uh upwards of about 50 m hour 80 km an hour will be possible some of the white showing up and then that system will move Inland and then still some of the Gusty winds in the Western Caribbean by Thursday and that's a piece of the next area that will be uh following uh this this one so as far as the rain goes some of these uh colors are off my chart watching uh portions of the Yucatan near Biz uh not all of us in Biz but we're going to see some areas of the Yucatan and Mexico bise South Eastern sections of Mexico uh Coastal sections of Guatemala and El Salvador that could get easily upwards of 150 millimeters of rain and higher that's 6 in of rain and higher we could see some spots upwards of 300 millim of rain or a foot of some rain so that is a very high concern and these are three-day rain totals then we swing back back here this is the rain that's going to work in uh same thing same thing with those totals into Northeastern sections of Mexico in Southeastern sections of Texas very high totals uh half a foot to a foot of rain in Southeast Texas we work our way back toward extreme Northern and Northeastern sections of Mexico we'll have some spots 150 millimeters of rain or more so we're looking upwards of 300 millimet of rain 6 to 12 Ines of rain and then this weekend we could be doing the same thing again so here's the broader picture also watching this right there you see that that is that uh other disturbance that is going to slide toward the south east us not showing signs of organization there's that huge moisture plume we're seeing uh heavy rain at times Nicaragua uh Costa Rica watching Panama Panama scattered showers there's that system as we get into uh Thursday this is Thursday it'll get close to the northern Bahamas we may see some increase rain on Thursday it's either going to swing up toward the Carolinas or kind of pull back toward Florida and the uh Northern Bahamas but could see some increased rain but the Gulf Stream is in here that's very warm water so I'll see if it does uh try to feed off of that and eventually try to uh spin up so as far as this area out here none of the major models uh the European The American Canadian and German none of them are are uh bringing this to Tropical Storm strength occasionally the American model tries to uh do that but go to watch out to see if it does develop it is an area of interest because that gold stream right there the water temperatures 84 85° F about 29° C there's a warm pocket here Western Gulf is definitely primed to help these systems develop unfortunately and that's another reason we could see one system after another pulling back into the Western Caribbean uh Central America and into the Western Gulf now the seas are on the high side meters here feet right there you see this orangey shading here we're looking at about about 5 m here so as you get over to the scale here that would be anywhere from about 13 plus a feet and it is going to be choppy Northern Bahamas uh back off the coast of Florida with that tropical disturbance so this is taking you out in time this here is tomorrow Seas will be building five plus meters right here could top about 12 13 feet just off the coast of Texas in Northeast Mexico so this here is our Wednesday and even getting choppier building Seas as we get into parts of the Central and Northern Bahamas and then this here is is by the time we hit Thursday and then watching the Western Caribbean we're going to see those Seas starting to pick up because we're going to see that similar scenario with that moisture uh that will be building and it's going to stay generally Rocky in this uh area you can see this blob here Trinidad and Tobago near Barbados I've been watching that that blob itself is not organized but we had a tropical way move by this is kind of the back side of it just flaring up some rain and storm so yes some of our Islands stay dry but others like yesterday could be dealing with some heavy thunderstorms just very unsettled weather for us across the Eastern Caribbean we still have some flooding we still have some flooding in suram there's that pluma moisture now Jamaica scattered showers and storms possible we're on the edge of it Cayman Islands we've had a good bit of rain at times we'll see some more just because of all of this rain nearby here's Panama Costa Rica Northern Columbia the rain chance will be higher this is as we work our way into our Wednesday afternoon Haiti the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico it's mainly afternoon storms but this here is Thursday you see that surge of moisture starting to lift to the north and eventually this will roll its way back toward the Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of campee where it could develop into the uh second system of the uh season so the rain totals this is mainly scattered stuff Haiti Dr watching over toward the Bahamas we're looking at more in the way of some isolated showers and storms but they could give us some heavier Pockets with the uh daytime heating Jamaica scattered showers and storms if you get some rain uh we could see upwards of uh 50 mm plus some of us getting about an inch of rain in some locations in just the the hit or miss variety now where they hit they could be strong we could get a couple thunderstorms saasta St kits neas hopefully we get a little bit of rain and there's some of that rain there Trinidad and Tobago watching that blob offshore we could see some spots around 75 millimeters of rain or upwards of 3 Ines of rain over the next 3 days so a big pluma moisture this area should spin up and then we'll see that repeat uh here there's that front leaving but leaving some leftover moisture here that will work its way back toward the northern behind Northern us dealing with some of those thunderstorms so it's just this persistent flow that will be right through here there's that little area approaching the northern Bahamas as we work our way into our Wednesday afternoon and still watching the scattered showers and thunderstorms right through the Caribbean and watch us in Jamaica as we work our way into Friday we may see some increased rain from the south starting to move in and then this will kind of pivot over into the Gulf where it could develop into that second system not as much Atlantic region of Canada yes chance of some scattered showers not as unsettled as a week or two ago but a few systems coming out of Quebec there's been some bigger storms back to the West over toward uh the Great Lakes but they have been generally the systems have been generally weakening as they've been moving in so Jamaica we're looking at a 40 to 50% chance of those scattered showers and storms Cay in Islands an elevated 60% chance we could have flooding keep me post it in the comments Trinidad and Tobago scattered showers and storms watching that blob that is nearby that could help enhance our chance of some rain same thing in Barbados that rain chance at 50% scattered showers and storms possible across St Lucia so the elevated chance as expected in the Southeastern Caribbean Grenada we've already had some rain over the last 24 hours about a 40% chance for today same thing St V at the grenadians the rest of today still a 50% chance of scattered showers and storms a 40% chance as we work our way through martinque a 50% chance of scattered showers and storms in Dominica 40 to 50% chance in gu a loop and about a 30 to 40% chance in in Antiga barbuta it's Hit or Miss but like yesterday we got hit and we had some heavier storms 30 to 40% chance St kits nevas and monzerat and a 30 to 40% chance Anguilla and St Barts we get towards St Martin sa and staia little more isolated uh upwards though of a 60% chance of scattered rain and storms in Puerto Rico not all of us get them but watching out for some downpour same thing us and British Virgin Islands a 40% chance the Bahamas 30 to 40% chance of some of those spotty showers and running at about an isolated 30% chance uh through the Turks and koos scattered showers and storms mainly late in the day in the Dominican Republic even back toward Haiti we could see a few of those storms finding us especially in our Central uh sections bise watching out for the areas of flooding let me know location what you got going on across bise I'll be watching that of course throughout the day Aruba one of our drier spots and super hot Kira boner it just way way too hot uh which is I guess typical this time of year if we're dry we're usually hot Guyana watching out for those areas of flooding and that rain chance stays elevated which is typical for seram this time of year Cuba watching out for some scattered showers and storms Western end a better chance of some rain Costa Rica rain chance a little higher Panama watching out for some of those scattered showers and you see that rain chance it is up in Nicaragua not all day and not all of us get it but where we do we need to monitor that flooding in Nicaragua same thing in Honduras just watching out where some of this rain kind of sets up parts of Guatemala and and El Salvador we're dealing with some of the uh the flooding and of course we're we're thinking of you look at Mexico City the rain chance going up as this tropical system works in by the time we H Thursday there's going to be some rain and it has been a long long time yucatana Mexico we have been wet watching out for the flood potential 30 to 40% chance little uptick in Northern Columbia 30% chance in Northern Venezuela and as we swing back toward Bermuda we are mainly dry so it is now uh super busy but it it's June we expect it to be busy that major flood threat because of the back-to-back systems or the potential of that uh we'll be watching that the next few days that uh next spin up could happen as soon as this weekend uh pulling out of the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and watching near the Bahamas for that area of some Disturbed weather I'll be watching several areas clearly so thank you for being part of this weather Community I do it for safety so thank you for sharing this uh with others in your community and uh please be sure I'll try to go through the comments leave your comments I'll get to those as we go throughout the day please be safe if you're dealing with some of the flooding and have a good rest of your day

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

Views: 277,178

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Id: Y-cSDK_Bglo

Length: 16min 7sec (967 seconds)

Published: Tue Jun 18 2024