Hi, everyone. Thanks for being with us here. For CBS A+ Extended Forecast. I'm Evan Irani giving you all the latest updates on now Hurricane Hillary as she makes her way across the Baja Peninsula toward the Southwestern Southern California coast and really the greater southwestern USI should say we're watching atmospheric moisture continue to build. You could see those tones of orange and red right toward that southwestern strip of the Mexican Pacific. This is where ocean water is particularly warm, where Hurricane Hillary is expected to undergo what we call rapid intensification. Tropical storm as of last night, as of Wednesday night, Thursday morning rapidly intensified to a category one storm that rapid intensification will continue. Want to start off though with what we're seeing right now in San Diego because we want to get you kind of clued in on the San Diego specific forecast. Across our four micro climates this morning, temperatures are pretty moderate. We've got a pretty decent marine layer that's joining us to start off the day, upper 70 degree temperatures expected in the forecast, upper 80s and low 90s inland across the mountains. We're going for 91 and 112 for the deserts. So keep in mind mountains and deserts. While we are watching Hurricane Hillary trudge in our direction, mountains and deserts still have a heat advisory and excessive heat warning in play. Temperatures are going to take a nosedive as the storm approaches, but in the meantime, it is still very hot and still pretty humid out there associated with not tropical moisture moving in our direction but instead monsoonal moisture. So let's take a look at what we have going on as far as the setup overhead We want to cover Hillary and then we'll take a look at specifically the Ridge of high pressure that's off to the east of us through of low pressure to the West of us right now, Hurricane Hillary. And this is as of 9:00 AM on Thursday is a hurricane at category one strength. That category is quickly going to build from A1 to a 2-3 and then four category 4 hurricane is what we expect Hillary to be by the time we get to your Thursday night. That's going to be based off of your sustained wind speed. So keep in mind that classification comes based on wind speed, not at its moving speed. So it's moving W northwest at 14 mph, pretty slow moving storm in general. But again all of this open water is very, very warm. The Mexican Pacific is notoriously warm, and we're going to watch it undergo that rapid intensification off that southwest corner of Cabo San Lucas. As we go into Friday, we'll start to see it make a little bit of a curve upward. It's not expected to make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. It will start to deteriorate just north of where we see it here, and that's going to be based off of the cooler ocean water that it's going to encounter. But look at that Friday at 6:00 PM, a 140 mile per hour sustained speeds at the eye of this hurricane. Now watch it travel north as it hits the Baja coast. It's expected to be a Category 2 dropping to a category one storm. We're going to watch that undergo its decaying process. So as it decays, as it breaks apart, we're expecting it to hit San Diego County as a tropical storm and then move N from there. So to the LA, Riverside, San Bernardino counties that will see additional rainfall as well. So let's talk about that big picture overhead for now. What we've been seeing over the last several days in Southern California is monsoonal moisture showers each afternoon across the mountains and deserts primarily associated with this Ridge of high pressure that's off to the east of us through of low pressure to the West. What we're seeing is that any moisture that is kicked up by any close by through of low pressure is wrapped around this Ridge and then sent up the back end. We've seen in most cases storms traveling from South to north and that's expected with monsoonal moisture. That's what we see here, these little splatters of green on the screen, very light isolated, not all that impactful and pretty fast moving at that. The change that we're going to see is with tropical moisture moving in with Hurricane Hillary, but at that point, tropical Storm Hillary by the time we get into that Saturday night stretch. So the main impacts with the storm expected Sunday into Monday. So let's zoom in specifically to San Diego County. I want to pause this at 4:00 AM on Sunday. Many people are asking if there's Saturday night. Plans are going to be impacted. Saturday night, mountains and deserts start to see that moisture pick up. If you're across the local mountains and deserts, you can expect absolutely an impact. If you're close to the coast or inland, it's going to be more so. Cloudy skies that start to build and then some scattered showers. Because even as we get into 4:00 AM on Sunday, we really don't see all that much of an impact closer to the coast. Remember, the eye of this storm is still pretty far South of us. These are what we call the outer bands of this hurricane and at this point moving toward a post tropical cyclone. So I want to point out what this is going to look like as that tropical storm arrives 7:00 PM on Sunday. Yellow and orange indicating areas where we could run into some strong thunderstorms, some downpours of rain. Strong tropical storm force winds upwards of 60 mph. That's going to be Sunday night into Monday morning. And keep in mind, San Diego Unified, the largest, second largest school district in the state of California, expected to go back to school on Monday. And that means that the way that you're dressing the kids for Monday is going to be a lot different than what we've been seeing the last several days with excessive heat out there. So we're going to see the stark transition from now with excessive heat all the way to much cooler temperatures, wet weather and we'll look at how much we're talking in just a minute. But I want to time this out for you. Sunday at 7:00 PM. Storm keeps traveling N pretty quick moving at that point. By 4:00 AM on Monday, most of that storm is up to the north of us LA County seen the bulk of it Riverside, San Bernardino County as well. By the time you're picking the kids up on Monday at noon or beyond noon hour, we're going to start to see those showers really break apart and weaken. So this is going to be a pretty quick moving one. Once a that hits Southern California, by the time we get into Tuesday, for example, we're back to dry skies. So how much rain are we talking? I want to point out a couple things. We have been tracking this storm each day for the last several days. Models change virtually every 15 minutes. Models are expected to continue to change. So when we look at that cone that you saw as that storm was moving up the Southern California coast and through the Baja Peninsula, this storm is going to adjust, models are going to adjust. And so we call that the cone of uncertainty because while we'd love to give you an exact precise, perfect forecast, remember this is all based off of historical data, off of current data and things are constantly changing. But as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, these models start to become more and more certain. They come into agreement further, and that's going to give us indication of what we're really expected to see between now and Saturday now and Sunday really. We could see this storm start to push a little bit E, push a little bit W If it pushes E, it hits more of Imperial County, doesn't affect our San Diego County coastline as much. If it moves W, it could skip us and head over the bite all the way up to about the Santa Barbara area. We'll still get some outer bands, so we're guaranteed to see rain absolutely, to see some thunderstorms, to see those strong gusty winds. But we're not exactly guaranteed to see the exact high per se of this storm. Rainfall accumulations look like this when we look at current models. We see the heaviest accumulations easily over the mountains and deserts. So for San Diego County that's going to translate to five to seven inches of accumulating rain. Remember we had a very, very wet winter, but this is going to be an impactful storm for us. Five to seven inches across the mountains and deserts, 2 to 2 1/2 inches for your inland valleys and then along the coast an inch and a half to two inches in total. This is what current models display. This is our best forecast model data that we can give you if you join us tomorrow, this will probably have changed. But remember, we're still 48 hours out from even seeing the very, very weak outer bands of this storm, let alone the brunt of it. Let's take a look at your rain chances. Those chances are going to peak on Sunday. Sunday night into Monday is where the majority of the stormy weather and impactful weather is going to come. But leading up to it, Saturday night is where we start to see that chance of showers rise to about 50%. Sunday is the best opportunity. Weakening from Monday through Tuesday, Tuesday through Wednesday, we're back to pretty menial risk of any wet weather out there. But still humidity for today and tomorrow. Possibly going to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms out there across our mountains in particular. That's why our chance today is at 7%. All right, let's summarize. Give you some headlines. First off, chances for countywide rain and storms start Saturday night. Heaviest Sunday and Monday. Tropical storm force winds could arrive Sunday between 8:00 AM and 8:00 PM. Winds are expected to be upwards of 30 to 45 mph. Some models push us into the 50 to 60 mile per hour range, primarily impacting our mountains and deserts. That's also where we'll see the heaviest accumulations of rain. Let's talk about your beaches. If you're going to be in the water out there, I'd say avoid it 5 to 10 foot waves. As far as surf goes, highest impact is going to be across those S facing beaches. And remember, we do encourage you to stay out of the water after those storms for about 48 to 72 hours because of the runoff that we see. I want to point out that in the meantime, for Thursday and for Friday, we are watching heat more so than we are watching anything related to Hillary. So for Thursday and Friday, temperatures are still going to be very warm. A heat advisory and excessive heat warning apply to our local mountains and deserts. National Weather Service suggesting that you limit your time outside. Remember, when we talk about the weather related fatalities across the country, heat is consistently #1. So heat related fatalities, beat out, hurricane related fatalities, tornado related fatalities, flood related fatalities, It's heat that is number 1. So while we are all talking about this tropical storm, and yes it is a big rarity for us to see a hurricane, let alone a category 4 hurricane, making its way up the Baja peninsula, we are still mainly focused today and tomorrow on heat 97 this afternoon for Ramona, 91 for Julian. Remember, humidity is high for now as well. 84 for Vista, 91 for Escondido. Coastline thinks that dense marine layer and sea breeze staying a little bit more mild than moderate. 78 for Carlsbad, 73 for Delmar, and 79 for San Diego. Make all the way to Campo. You're 20 degrees warmer than Chula Vista. 97 in Campo, 77 in Chula Vista, 112 out there for Brego Springs. All righty, 8 day forecast. This is kind of a big summary in what we have for you here today. It's going to denote that cooling trend. First off, we'll focus on those temperatures along the coast and inland Temperatures will drop down pretty rapidly between today and Sunday. Looks like Monday will probably be the coolest day that we have with mid and lower 70s in the forecast. Clouds start to build beginning tomorrow and Saturday in particular. Saturday afternoon we'll really start to see those clouds build inland. We could start to see some of those showers pop up Saturday night. Looks like coastline will probably stay dry for Saturday afternoon. Maybe Saturday night. A few scattered showers with the far outer bands bands of this storm, but in particular it is Sunday and Monday that that widespread heavier rain is expected. Remember one to two inches along the coast, 2 to 2 1/2 inches inland. As we go toward Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, we see conditions clear up tremendously. Really Monday afternoon and Monday evening in particular is where we start to see that clearing occur. So you can see how those temperatures are also going to recover, make their way back to the mid 80s with some sunshine out there. Mountains and deserts see a 25 degree drop in temperatures 95 across the mountains today dropping all the way down to 70 by Monday. So look at that. In a matter of four days, we're going to have temperatures dropping by 25 degrees. Thunderstorms are going to be most active for our mountains and deserts. That goes for today as well, with still some monsoonal moisture out there, some scattered and isolated mountain thunderstorms, but in particular that storm stormy weather associated with the tropical moisture moving up towards us, Hurricane Hillary. At that point, Tropical Storm Hillary will trigger some thunderstorms for Saturday night, Sunday and Monday, 5 to 7 inches possible across those two microclimates. And then we dry out Monday night through Tuesday, Tuesday being a transitionary day away from stormy weather and back toward drier skies out here. Want to wrap this up? I know it's been a long time coming here by saying that these models are consistently changing. We do appreciate you, of course, joining us today to keep in touch with the latest you want to download the CBS8 app. You also want to add the CBS8 channel to your Roku TV, your Fire TV, your Apple TV. Remember, you can stream the forecast and stream newscasts entirely on there as well and on our website cbs8.com. cbs8.com/weather will also get you in the know on all of the latest that we have in terms of the forecast. And then, of course, our live shows that you can join us for every morning, midday and evening. We'll be continuing to track this storm, including on Monday morning as all those kids at San Diego Unified head back to the classroom. So you can join us beginning at 4:30 AM on CBS8. We'd love for you to join us as we track this storm and bring you the latest Models are going to keep changing. We will bring you those changes as we get them. All right, take a deep breath. We can make it through this one. Thank you for being with us. I'm Evan Ronnie, CBS8, and we hope you all have a wonderful and safe rest of your Thursday and are gearing up for this storm as it approaches. Have a good day.
