Conservatives suffer huge losses in local elections

well let's take a closer look at the results more than 2,500 Council seats were up for grabs in 107 English councils results are still coming in but as of a few minutes ago 91 of those have declared labor have gained eight councils overall and the conservatives have lost six there's been no change for the lib demems or the greens and there's three fewer with no overall control in terms of councilors Labor have gained 164 with the conservatives losing 38 6 heading towards the most pessimistic pre predictions for their overall performance the lip Dems gained 71 the greens gained 48 and there are 84 more Independents reform UK has won one Council seat in the four English mayoral races for which we have results there's now a labor mayor in the prime minister's backyard after they won in York and North Yorkshire the PM of course is the MP for Richmond labor Mayes too for the Northeast and the East Midlands the first time any of them were contested the Tories breathed a very big sigh of relief after holding on to teas Valley labor had been hoping to unseat Ben hin as we've heard so some comfort there for the PM but the day started with a big blow for rishy sunak labor claiming a massive win in the Blackpool South parliamentary byelection with a 26% swing that's the third highest labor toor swing in postwar history results have also been declared in 26 police and crime commissioner contests in England and Wales with labor flipping eight from the conservatives replied KY held on to theirs chish thanks well with so many losses Rishi sunak has described the night as disappointing but is apparently sure voters will stick with the Tories come the general election our political editor Gary Gibbon is in Westminster Gary one of the things posters do in these elections is extrapolate the national equivalent vote and and and that is trying to look at basically where the parties stand and when you look at that figure and there are different versions available we've got our own about a 10o labor lead in our one other other extrapolations come out with something similar a lot of people might be scratching their heads and saying well hang on I thought labor had a 20 point lead or something of that order in the opinion polls what's happening here and what's happening here is that this is a set of local elections and quite often uh the vote dissipates on the non-government side to different causes and Co lesses when it comes to a general election a bit more and that is obviously what uh K will be hoping happens but even in these local elections when you drill down into the numbers and look at the key seats that K starma needs to win uh to get a decent majority in a general election he's doing quite well in those seats and labor would say look also at the police and crime commissioner elections low turnouts quite often uh sometimes dismissed but quite often more of a two horse battle and in those labor is doing really quite well there are some concerns for labor in these numbers uh though and that is to do with sometimes more left leaning voters who are drifting away from labor maybe in some uh Wards and as you said uh Muslim uh voters who seem to be definitely walking away from labor in some numbers that could end up being more of an issue for labor in government than necessarily trying to win an election to get into government but for rishy sunak well it looks pretty Grim wherever you look that 25% share of the vote which we think uh he's going to hit when all the numbers are in is really quite close to uh rockbottom for the conservative party there are distinctly flashing red lights on his dashboard he is it looks like he's going to evade any sort of immediate coup inside his party as some MPS uh were threatening one of them said to me he's got a stay of execution well we'll see about that but definitely red lights flashing on his dashboard tonight here's what we know so far about the results if you remember one result from yesterday's elections K starma would like it to be the Blackpool byelection where the swing to labor nudged postwar records this was a parliamentary vote this was directly to Rishi sunak to say we're fed up with your decline your chaos and your Division and we want change but across the country labor brought Gloom to Tory counselors here in Reddit labor snatched control of the council in True Blue Aldershot Rushmore Council some Tories couldn't quite believe the results in front of them some had to look away labor took control and long serving Tory counselors were rejected by the voters yes I mean the national picture didn't help on the doorstep um some people didn't vote at all um because of the situation but it was quite clear that um we were we were fighting on many fronts Labour's team celebrating that Council gain based on the votes cast in yesterday's local elections in a general election Aldershot branded the home of the British milit would swing decisively to labor on yesterday's votes Plymouth morview would go from safe Tory to labor and in the red wall great Grimsby which went Tori in 2019 could return to the labor party the red wall provided some comfort for the conservatives Ben hin held on as mayor of tside after a campaign in which he long fingered his party and his leader it's not about Rishi sonaka the government not voting on K Rishi sonaka the mess going on in Westminster but that didn't stop rishy sunak rushing to teeside to bask in the mayor's Victory Glory I've got a message for the labor party too because they know that they had to win here in order to win a general election they know that they assumed that teas Valley would just stroll back to them but it didn't it didn't people knew that they couldn't be taken for granted they knew that it was Ben and the conservatives that delivered for that within tside labor took back control of harleypool council and these numbers they'd take back the Parliamentary seat Jill Mortimer won for the Tores three years ago she says fellow MPS must stop talking about deposing rishy sunak I think any talk of changing lead to going into a general election is for the birds to be quite honest you know we we will stick in we will stick together as a party Channel 4 News analysis has extrapolated from the results so far share of the vote fix for the two main parties IT projects labor could be on 35% and the Tes skirting an alltime low at 25% a 10-point labor lead labor in opposition has had smaller leads in local elections and gone on to lose the general election a year later this lead is closer to the sort enjoyed by Tony Blair ahead of his Landslide general election Victory but it's not as big as the 20o opinion poll leads Labor's been getting local elections are very different Beast to general elections uh what we're seeing in terms of the conservatives performance is among the worst performances that they've ever had uh in local elections but what's different in local elections is that you get a more fragmented opposition vote the libdems do better the greens do better Independents do better and all of that is even more true now than it used to be in say the 1990s when Tony Blair was opposition leader so many of those voters will rally behind the labor Banner when we get to a Westminster election the lip demms celebrated victory in Winchester parading dinosaurs with blue rosettes make this conservative government history but the party's 177% projected share of the national vote will be hard to match in a general election there were green party gains some on councils where they've never won before free free free imp pendal Independents who've left labor over K st's policy on Gaza one seats from labor and across the country Wards with larger Muslim populations showed a distinct drop in labor support kiss Tama traveled to North Yorkshire a few miles from rishy sunak home to celebrate the election of a labor mayor there I think we're in his constituency now celebrating this victory richy sunak had started his day a few minutes driveway at catrick barracks on the evidence of results out so far his party has not Advanced on his watch some who' plann to mount a coup against him in the coming days say they won't move on him now but don't rule out trying again a little later Gary Gibbon well in a few minutes we'll be hearing from labors of V Cooper but first the work and pension secretary Mel stride joins us from Westminster thanks for joining us um richy suak went to teas Valley and claimed that labor has to win there in order to win the general election that is just not true is it in fact it's patently nonsense it's right at the heart of the red wall uh as you will know uh and labor certainly have to make major inroads back into the red wall now what what Ben hin of course has done is one in fact ically there over 60% of the vote you've got to remember that in 2021 the last set when he got 73% that was a high watermark for us we had the covid uh bounce we were riding high in the polls and so on and in fact he won in every single one of the five burs that sit beneath uh that you know a person a big result I mean the point of the Mayors was to create big personalities that's what Ben hin is he's got a big personal name recognition a personal vote he barely mentioned the conservatives or r sunak in his campaign he was the only one not wearing a party rosette on the platform didn't mention the conservatives or Richie sunak uh in his in his speech it's about him not about the party and you know it's just nonsense to suggest Labour needs to win there no look Ben halin stood as a proud conservative having enacted conservative policies under a conservative government uh literature that was used up there to campaign on did bear the conservative uh logo the hustings he would have been uh there promoted as a conservative and of course when people came to the polling booth and their pen hovered over the various boxes they put could put across on right next to Ben halon's name would have been the conservative logo and the word conservative and I think slightly patronizing to suggest uh to the extent that some are at least that people didn't really you know they weren't really voting for The conservatives clearly a conservative uh you've heard people in our package saying that they voted for Ben hin but they don't support the conservatives that's my point anyway we'll move on but what about harow harow was a a result that didn't go Labour's way and you had the leader of the opposition down there the night before with Angela Raina making it very clear that harow is exactly the kind of place that labor had to win if they were going to get the keys to number 10 Downy Street and they didn't do that but it's just nonsense to say any of these places are places labor has to win what labor needs to do is win win a majority and it's way on course to do that as you know I mean the point is K st's comments yeah if Rishi sun is currently I mean you look at those the projected National vote share yeah and what's happened over the last 24 hours he's leading you over an abyss you you are going into a big black hole why wouldn't you get rid of him there there is a huge difference between a set of local election results which I accept have been difficult in in many areas and a general election and what we're going to see now is we're going to see this contest narrow down to whether we want rushy sunak who's got a very clear plan based on what people want us to focus on so that's getting inflation down the C Liv that was what the campaign was about well these are important they're important points because I'm you're to keep repeating them aren't you which rather than change tag it's going to come down to the only poll that matters which is is going to be the general election when it comes and then it is going to be rishy sunak versus K starma now at the moment I suspect in these local results you've seen a lot of conservatives sitting on their hands they are grumpy uh for various reasons but ultimately everybody's going to have to take that decision as to whether you want K starm or not there's no great enthusiasm for k starm out on the doorstep I know that labor activ grumpy a slightly disrespectful way to talk about conservative activists I don't think uh no I didn't say conservative act activists I was referring to voters yeah no I think people are entitled not being disrespectful maybe they maybe they just think you're useless no look I I the point that I'm making and I think it's a very fair point is that people too get grumpy with uh uh governments of all stripes when they're in office we've gone through a very challenging time we've had inflation imported into the country through a war uh in Europe we've had covid before that with all the kind of interventions the government had to bring forward in order to uh save the economy and save jobs and avoid mass unemployment and richy soon Act was right at the heart of that in fact uh as Chancellor um and um you know that has been a very difficult time so what we've got to do now as a party is unite and as I think your trailer leading up to this interview has suggested that is precisely what the Parliamentary party is now going to do unite behind our leader unite be behind our very clear agenda and the things that we are you're not going to change course and come forward to the country come forward to the country with a Manifesto that will address and continue to address the key con what you're doing is asking people to change their minds I mean you're not going to change you're going to keep saying the same five messages and you're going to hope that the voters somehow change their minds about I know you Christian I I know you don't want me to explain what these five messages are for example but some of your viewers may be getting a bit confused now because we're talking about things in the abstract so I do think I need to lay them out people care about the cost of living they care about inflation coming down they care about the fact that real wages have been increasing in each of the last n months they care about illegal migration where we have a plan in place to deal with that and have a deterrent and labor Pro my point very well for 90,000 plus people what labor are going to do is effectively a soft amnesty for those people now as we go towards the general election K starma is going to come under the kind of scrutiny that only happens during a general election campaign and whereas at the moment he has no plan and we don't know what he stands for on many many different things because he's frightened of saying anything lest he jeopardized his poll lead we're going to start to have a serious debate and he will be put under scy and I think you'll find that the polls will narrow Through Time Well lab we going to be under scrutiny right now MRI thank you very much indeed now over to Jackie well Cooper the shadow Home Secretary is here with me now V Cooper was it a good night on your own merits or as Mel stri suggests just a good night because voters are grumpy with the government evening Jackie well I think dismissing voters as being grumpy just completely doesn't get what's happening across the country I think people are desperate for Change and they were supporting labor to deliver that change we obviously had a very good result in Blackpool that was the one parliamentary result that we had a more than 20% swing and that's the sixth parliamentary by election that we've won with a more than 20% swing this Parliament but we're also got to keep working and we know that we will keep working we really need to see a general election that's what I think everybody wants to see possible as you suggest Labor's Mantra is that you cannot be complacent so where would you identify the potential weaknesses last night was it harow um as as Mel stride said K starma had said it was critical was it Ben hin hanging on to the teas Valley are there areas that you are worried about well I think we saw progress right across the country so for example the police and crime commissioner elections which took place really in every corner of the country we saw labor wins the first time for Cumbria uh for North for Cleveland for aan and Somerset really all corners of the country where we saw strong labor results and that was really a labor and and failures in har K starma had said it was us absolutely critical Ben hen you know the one of the arguments being made that when conservatives deliver in their area they're not looking to voters are not looking to run to you well just to finish the point on the police crime Commissioners first and then to address that is I think it was important you're right those were off sometimes areas where there were no other elections however it was a strong support for labor on Law and Order on an issue the conservatives could continue to think that they're doing well and actually they're doing really badly because we're not seeing the police on the streets when people are not getting Justice through the criminal justice system but on the the teas Valley mayor obviously um look I think there's not just personal factors involved there was also a 177% swing from labor to the cons sorry from the conservatives to labor so that was a big increase in that V vote and we also won the Cleveland Police and crime commissioner which was a similar area so again I think for the conservatives to say oh that shows it's all all right for us shows they just don't get it and they don't get equ it's all all right for labor either is it what is is clear what is very very clear is the issue of Gaza and the labor party's response to it has cost labor council's seats I just wonder whether the leadership should apologize for damaging the efforts of local Council as local activists because of what many people see as the really poor handling of the Gaza situation well there's no doubt that the Gaza has been a factor in some areas and obviously in some Council areas there have been other factors as well but there's no doubt and we should pend labor didn't win any seats after all their counselors stood as Independents because of gazi in Blackburn labor held on but lost seats as some counselors also stood as Independence sure and there's no doubt it has been an issue in areas in some areas we've had particular other candidates campaigning very strongly on that issue and this is an issue where tens of thousands of people have died including the majority of them women and children so rightly people feel very strongly about this and it's they feel the labor leadership should have called for a ceasefire much much earlier Clive Betts the Sheffield MP today says that labor need to understand the amount of anger that he saw on the doorstep has to be seen to be believed and that the party really really needs to make a radical change now it's got to make absolutely clear he says we cannot stand by and watch Israel wreak destruction on Gaza is he right is that what labor will now do well I think it's clear we need an immediate ceasefire in Gaza it is devastating what's happening we're deeply worried about the risks that Israel May then pursue a Rafa in offensive which would be catastrophic in humanitarian terms that's why the immediate ceasefire is so important we have to have the release of hostages but we also have to have a major program of humanitarian Aid and we are deeply worried about what's happening so the negotiations are immensely import from point of view of Labor to to bring back some of those people those many many counselors who stood as Independents because they were so angered by the labor party's response to this how will you you know there is a danger going into an election this becomes an even bigger issue for labor what are you going to do about it to bring back those people into the fold and I think as I said it's important to recognize that this was a factor in some areas and of course in every area we all need to reflect and to seek to rebuild to earn back support and we must continue to do that but we also need to I think continue to do a lot of the work we've been doing right across the country which has delivered such strong results for labor but we need to keep working whether that be in areas where we didn't win votes areas we might have lost votes but also the areas that we have won a lot really briefly if you would the West Midland mayal race is very very tight if labor voters turn away from you on this issue it could cost you that couldn't it well again we've been campaigning across the West Midlands again this would be an area where you know we've always known that there were a strong popular local candidates and so but we've also seen I think the increases in support across the Midlands we've just won the the East Midlands uh mayoral candidate Clare ward has now become the East Midlands mayor so we will continue across the Midlands the north the South right across the country IET Cooper thank you very much for coming we appreciate it Christian thanks Jackie let's take a closer look now at one area that switched from conservative to labor last night before yesterday the Tories were in control of nanon and bedworth Council in warshire but they lost 11 seats and labor gained Power by winning 15 our senior political correspondent Paul magnamar is there for us Paul yeah this is a council that flip-flo backwards and forwards between conservatives and labor but labor had a mountain to climb here last night they had five seats right now they have 20 seats and most significantly a majority for the first time since 2018 there was some big losses as well the conservative Deputy leader lost her seat now the Tories have looked at Point at the turnout 27 a half% said that's an issue on how badly they've done a lot of voter apathy but many of the Tory candidates and counselors here point out one other thing not what's happening here with the conservative party what's happened to the conservative party in Parliament we're a few hours yet until we get a result what are you feeling confident I'm feeling confident um I looking forward to the result so we were trying very hard not to smile here they haven't even counted yet um well because I've been going around and it it's it's it's looking good uh it's not looking too brilliant at the moment why not how's it looking it's looking good yeah it's good is this your competition down here yes let's have a quick have all right excuse me hello there we're from Channel 4 how's it looking yeah so far is good he he said the same thing you got both be looking good for the Perry yeah for now he good but that soon changed Ward after Ward counselor after counselor counselor for oh counselor for stuck in 40 how does that feel to say wo it feels amazing labor gained 15 seats and control of the council I'm just emotional I'm I just I can't get the words out but he mean so much to me those WI though came at conservative cost I lost by quite a significant margin uh desp by winning it 3 years ago by a fairly good margin what was it what's what's brought you down what was it oh me many things really but I think if if I'm being bold I think warshire County Council and the and the government have a lot to answer for uh in this election in a bell weather seat like this uh the government shouldn't be happy with these results I represent one of the poorest Parts in the UK uh the poorest part of warshire and the the people feel so disillusioned they feel like government isn't listening they feel like uh there's nothing they can do there's no conjur to central government and as their representative I I have to agree with them but I don't think they realize this is a local election and not um the government one you know is that what you think you're being judged on yes I think we are how does that feel when you're a local person that's gone out night after night knocking doors and then that's what you're being judged on well I don't really know I feel I should feel a bit devastated cuz I have walked and walked and walked and talked to people and try to help people I mean help people before even started to do this so yes I think they're looking at the bigger picture rather than looking after the town that we're in yay two seats were won by the greens and the conservatives did pick up up 16 congratulations thank you delighted but for the former leader a life in opposition beckons of of course it's disappointing that we didn't keep control of the council but if you look at the national opinion polls labor should be wiping the floor with us here in Den e and bedworth and they didn't and for the national party which many conservatives here believe are responsible for today's results a message it needs to get a grip it needs to unify uh around the leader divided parties don't win elections do you think that this is an election which the labor party have won or the Tory party have lost oh we won we won the challenge for labor in this bellweather seat now to do the same in a general election now Paul tomorrow of course you'll be giving us the result of the West Midlands mayor uh result which is another big personality Andy Street um any indications of How It's going well the move from both camps is that it is close however talking to labor sources they think Andy Street may have just kept his kept his his seat and the feeling is that they point to Gaza as what's cost them votes but look going into today's race The Narrative that was being pumped out was that look if richon managed to keep Andy Street managed to keep Ben hin up in tside it's probably enough to keep him uh keep him in post and the narrative today has been that actually you know lots of those Tory plers they haven't been plotting there is another fact to throw into this look back at our report there look at counselors look at Tory counselors who have spent the last few weeks going door too knocking knocking knocking and they are feeling depressed they are feeling defeated in just a few months time the Prime Minister his MPS will be asking those exact same people to go out and do exactly the same all over again and that is worrying a lot of conservative MPS thanks Paul big day tomorrow get some sleep Jackie well there are other places where there have been clear signs that sakir st's stance on the Gaza War has cost labor votes in pendel in Lancashire labor failed to win any seats on the bough Council there's evidence that the party has taken a hit in areas with significant Muslim populations our community's editor Darner son is in pendall now Darner what is the situation well there was disappointment here in Pendle for labor Jackie they failed to win any seats on the council we tried to speak to labor party members afterwards and they told us they wouldn't be giving interviews I have to say they disappeared pretty sharpish after the counts before the election 10 labor counselors resigned and sat as Independents and of those who are up for re-election they all won as independent so Labour doesn't have any counselors left here in Pendle now some are comparing it to what happened to labor after the Iraq War it wasn't just here in Pendle the party suffered losses in areas like Burnley and Blackburn and in Alum they lost overall control of the Town Council now Alum does have a particularly complicated local history the party had been seeing a loss of support there before October the 7th but still the loss came as a shock and some initial analysis suggest that in wards that have more than 10% of the population who are Muslim the party's share fell by 8% and old them of course neighbors Rochdale where George Galloway recently won a byelection by campaigning on the issue of Alm I spoke to one counselor here who had resigned as a labor counselor he won today as an independent listen to what he told me and what it says to you about the issue of Palestine pal free free palestin free free Palestine this is not just for the people of pendel this is for the people of Palestine this is for the 2 and A2 million who are still under sied this this Victory is for them in particular this was the reason myself and my agent and my leader councilor yasik well resigned from the labor party in October and obviously the people have now spoken and as councellor Ashraf also said to me it's not just Muslims of course who care about the issue of Gaza many people here raised it on the doorsteps that's what some conservative counselors said to me as well and today the party's campaign coordinator Pac maaden has done a round of interviews saying the party acknowledges it has to listen to voters on this issue and try and win back their trust because the big question for the party is if this is what's happening in local elections how will it play out in the general election now as we've heard reform UK came close to pushing the Tories into third place in the Blackpool South byelection but their National vote share after the local elections is looking like just 11% good enough to damage the Tores not good enough to win seats themselves and so far they've only won one Council seat in these elections the party's leader Richard TI joins us now from Westminster it's clear looking at the Blackpool South by elction that you are helping labor into power do you think labor will make a better government than the conservatives look uh we're delighted with our first uh our strongest byelection result we almost beat the Tores into third place with about just 177% and that's way above our national polling so look we're making good progress no one's saying it's easy but the reality is the two main parties there's no difference between them they're both uh essentially forms of socialism high taxes we've got the highest taxes for doesn't matter there's no there's no there's no difference you know socialism is a catastrophe uh high taxes High ways for government spending public sector outcomes are disastrous got Mass immigration that no one voted for and the reality is we've got no growth we've got the longest recession per person since records began 70 years ago and there's nothing in Labor's plans that's going to turn that round so we're heading towards catastrophe uh unless we change course well you you mentioned the 17% vote share in Blackpool South but the the national projected share based on the local election votes has you more like 11% that's that's not really good enough is it that's not a breakthrough election for you we've always said we're focusing on the general election standing 630 candidates the local elections up and down the country and in for example in the north actually in Sunderland we beat the conservatives in 16 out of 25 Wards some of our Wards we almost uh beat Labour with about 32 2% in Barnsley we beat the conservatives In N Out of 10 so look and the reality is in the north hang on in the north we are now becoming the party of opposition to labor as the Tores are sinking we are surging and you know Rome's not built in a day this is a multi- elction project but as I say we're focusing on the general election and we're going to be standing 630 candidates and by the summer if we keep making this progress and the the tourist keep sinking frankly we're going to be level pegging with them is Nigel farage coming back no good question you have to ask him yourself he's got a big decision to make the more help the more help we can the Nigel's able to give the better but he's obviously got other obligations and it's a big big decision for him we've got obviously the general whenever it is so let's wait and see uh patience is a virtue I mean it's a clever strategy isn't it because he gets huge profile on the television um to sort of spread his message and then he can switch at the last minute to stand as a candidate is that the plan he's made it very clear that uh this you know he thought he had left Frontline politics but reform is making great progress and the country is in a terrible State the T completely broken Britain no the Tores have broken Britain and the reality is that Britain needs reform in so many areas our economy needs reform our Health Care system is a disaster it needs reform our immigration system needs reform law on order is completely out of control as tragically we've seen these are the areas that we're making progress we've got big bold plans and if Nigel feels able to come and uh give it a a bit of extra heave then fantastic but I mean he he's the honorary president the hon president he plays named on your compan he plays no executive role in the running of the party uh he's got his broadcast career that he enjoys enormously so let's wait and see whether or not he sorry say again do you think he'd make any difference he's the best known politician he's the best known politician in the country so uh if he is able to come back then that's clearly going to help and the more help the better it's a big big job trying to save Britain from the terrible State we're in and from the fact that starmageddon policies are going to make no no difference to turning this country around from the trouble we're in so so if the Tories came to you and and offered you a deal I mean I know it's unlikely but if they did not interested the're not they're all the same you are the ultimate protest vote then in we are the ultimate alternative the two existing main part not going to win anything so look I'm sorry that's that's a ridiculous thing to say we've almost beat the Tores is in this byelection what you've just confirmed what you've just confed not to win the SE what you've just confirmed is the ludicrous nature of our electoral system first pass the post which is completely unjust we need proportional representation we're going to get some uh some seats tomorrow in the GL assembly under proportional representation for example that's our objective but look we we've got the hand we're dealt with our objective in this election is to secure as many or more votes cast than the conservatives it's it's ambitious but we think we can get there well as we've heard one piece of Good News grasped by the conservatives today came when Ben hen triumphed over a labor surge to remain as mayor of teas Valley which includes Middlesboro Darlington and redka he was Keen to fight his campaign on his own record rather than that of the conservatives in government so what message did voters there want to send to Rishi sunak our north of England reporter CLA Fallon has this while the votes were being count wanted not far away it's the ukulele beginners class at Stockton Art Center we've come to talk elections politics and politicians I'm sure that when the election comes that uh the conservatives will get a hiding you know in this area Ben Hun's win inevitably now means the house and wise of the vote will be analyzed and interpreted by plenty of pollsters and commentators excellent Ben Hook's done a lot an awful lot from around here but I'm not supporting the conservatives but he's a Tory so I was like that yesterday it's what somebody does locally that's important but then when there a party that at the moment I just can't get my head round um rishy and all all the shenanigans that have been going on that's what's put me off the conservative party well I think with the the mayor that we've had Ben hin I mean I do know what he's done and he seems to have done quite a lot for the area local versus National is just one of the election interpretation complexities and we spotted another inside the Leisure Center where the Tories would later get their Silver Lining there is something intriguing when you look around in here and that is Rosette colors I can see a lot of red rosettes there are a few yellow rosettes in here I've seen them but no blue rosettes I see uh I you can see blue tie and you know absolutely a conservative which is I think the point you're trying to get at but after a campaign almost absent of Tory branding some saw a link with declining conservative support and at the nursery just along the corridor from the count we found signs of declining trust too it's just always been the same it's just getting like the prices of food going up enough like it's not changing it's just going higher it's making it worse for people is it I think they all be I think people get influenced by that because we've been let down so much by the government and politics and stuff in the past so it's for some people it's just like here we are again do you know what I mean but like for me I've still got a bit of hope that like some someone can do something that's going to bring some change we've heard a lot of things that it's going to get better and all them promises but we don't believe that it has happened yeah do you think that's going to affect trust oh absolutely yeah it will Julie elected as mayor for the te valy combine Authority a win seemingly at odds with a results in other places but the swing to labor was big the mayor's majority is now massively reduced you must have had people saying to you well yeah I'll vote for you but I'm not going to vote for the conservatives in the general election yeah there were people saying that I'm going to vote for you and I haven't decided whether I'm going to vote conservative at the next general election absolutely and that's why I keep saying to the government I keep saying to conservative MPS we've got to come together and we're going to have a positive vision for the country we've got to start delivering because people are looking for an excuse to vote for us they're frustrated with us some are upset with us but they're not completely turned off because they want that excuse to be able to vote for us and we've just got to give them that reason and we haven't done that yet how people here voted can and will be used to tell many stories but there is another revealing result stat turnout which was down at just 30 1% well with me here in the studio Rosie Campbell professor of politics at Kings College London and Kieran Pedley public affairs research director at the polling organization ipsos Kieran labor are saying these results show the public want the government to get out of the way is that what the polling says yes I think it's important to know that these elections took place amidst the back backdrop of real intense public dissatisfaction with the way the country is being run so seven and 10 told us earlier this year that it's time for change at the next election Richi Sun's net satisfaction rating as prime minister is minus 59 which is the joint worst ipsos have recorded going back to 1978 for a prime minister so that's the context of these elections last night's elections didn't seem to see show a great deal of change from where we were a year ago and I guess what we see with the public opinion polling that we do is that more people would like there to be a general election before the end of the summer so a majority 52% and say the conservatives should change leader before that election it certainly feels like it's time for change at the moment but of course until that general election takes place we just don't know Rosie does the fact that the the the vote shares haven't really changed year on year mean that people have basically made up their minds I don't think it's that simple I think what what we can say right now is the polling right now looks to be pretty reliable um in terms of the size of the gap between labor and the conservative party that doesn't mean that that's set in stone for when an election you know election could be as far away as January um and can happen we've seen how shocks can his the system now I know you know Poland Guru um John Curtis has said it's 99% sure that we're going to see K starma in number 10 Downing Street but he did say that could be um as part of a minority government so I think I think change we can't change can happen in the polls it's very unlikely to to change so dramatically that the conservatives would win but we shouldn't take for granted that voters have made up their minds but who who do you think is most to blame then for conservative dissatisfaction rushy sunak LZ Truss Boris Johnson you know that's a hard question well don't people make up their minds based on all of that it's not just the leaders though either is it I do think you've got an important point there that you know is it all about dissatisfaction with the conservatives because actually if we're talking about leader ratings actually kiss dharma's ratings are nothing compared to what Tony Blair's would have been in the run up to the 97 election so if we're going to put those three in the mix maybe kiss St has to go in too I think the important Point here is that the public consistently have told us over the last year or so that there are four issues isues that are most important to them that's the economy the cost of living the NHS and particularly for conservative minded voters immigration Rich that put out his five pledges around a year or so ago and he's not seen as delivering on them so it really comes down to delivery there is an opportunity whenever there's a change of leader to sort of reset the political Dynamics and he's not been able to do that as I've said so he'll be hoping he can do that in the coming months but time is running out what do you think this election tells us about the importance of the red wall which both the main parties seem obsessed with I think it's absolutely critical but we mustn't lose sight of the fact that it's the red wool plus lots of other bits of the country and I think one of the things that the labor party will be feeling really pleased about today is yes they've done really well in the red War they've done really well in harleypool they've also done well in places like swinden how how does that square just before you move on to that with with Ben Hon's win well I mean you know I was arguing with Mel stride about whether Ben hin is just a sort of personal Vote or a conservative vote at the top of the program I would love to do the analysis to see whether incumbent MPS whether the inv the personal vote is so big that we don't need to think about party but I think it's probably a bit too early to say that for sure but we can see that we also have two new labor Mayes so I think looking at the picture as a whole focusing on that as a conservative is probably clutching at stws what were you going to say yeah I think I think when you look at the the story with the Metro Mayors that's coming out of the results in a way it's a success story for the concept because you're seeing voters vote differently for their local mayor than they might do for counselors or for MPS Ben hin clearly has a personal vote but we should bear in mind there was a 16 17 point swing against him in this contest too he won 72% of the vote or thereabouts last time and I think it was about 51 or so this time so you know even then he's gone from bizarrely popular to extremely popular isn't it well I mean it's still it's a significant shift is the point that if that shift took place at a general election then the conservatives would lose all of their seats in in that in that area so I mean there is some sort of constellation there that he's held on but not much I don't think we've still got a couple of big high profile results on the Mayors tomorrow um West Midlands where everyone's looking at Andy Street and of course London where sadique KH has been battling over lots of issues not you know to do with the environment and and various other things now they they've released the voter turnout for London which is 40.5% which is above the national average but slightly down on the 2021 turnout do you think Labor's nervous well labor certainly sounds nervous when you hear some of the briefing that's coming out of the labor party Camp I think look our polling ipol shows that Sev KH is a divisive figure in London and we saw that with the byelection last year in Oxbridge um the big unknown question here though isn't just about turnout it's about what do those people that gave their first preference vote to the liberal Democrats last time do and then gave a second choice to sadik Khan what do they do this time do they realize and then decide to choose sadik Khan first over Susan hall or do they stay at home or vote for other parties or stay with the liberal Democrats so it's not just a question of turnout that is important if turnouts higher in the outter burs that are typically more anti- Khan than the inner BS and there is and there's a collapse of turnout in certain areas maybe East London over Gaza that matters a lot but it also matters what those first preferences from last time do just in a few seconds Rosie if only 30% of the country votes what's the point of these things well I mean the point is that they they manage you know a lot of our local services but if we're really thinking about this in terms of the general election what we compare is previous local elections so we're seeing the change between the two and if we look back to the last time that these most of these seats were

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Keywords: Channel 4 News, Local elections, elections, local election results, conservatives, labour, reform, reform uk, rishi sunak, keir starmer, richard tice, politics, westminster, constituency, starmer, sunak, councils, councillors, prime minister, england, blackpool, tees valley, channel 4 news, channel 4, c4 news, news, uk news

Id: vNnOAZqbklA

Length: 45min 32sec (2732 seconds)

Published: Fri May 03 2024