Are election results worst of all worlds for Tories?

every time the conservative party has chosen another leader it's been pretty dire for them it would look ridiculous frankly having a sixth prime minister in however many years is labor happier that he stays put if he goes there's always a sort of a slight well might he be replaced by somebody better hello and welcome to the political forecast this week just how bad for the Tories were the local elections there's no doubt they are bad results but when they bad enough to ditch Rishi sunak what can they do to turn things round or is it now just about minimizing the losses of the general election what's the impact of Reform UK could the return of Nigel farage make a big difference and are these results as good for labor as they might seem with me today The Spectator editor frasa Nelson former conservative Chancellor quasi quaten and Labor's leader in the House of Lords Angela now baroness Smith quasi how bad are these results for your of course bad results but actually when I uh look at the the numbers and the results I think most of them were expected there's nothing worse than uh doing worse than expectations and I don't think we've done that I think uh Ben hin obviously that was a good win and I feel that uh rishy sunak position is is safe I don't think there's going to be a serious move against him is is that in a way the worst possible position though because you end you end up with a loser who you're going to keep well I don't think so I think I think we've had so much turbulence and change and I've been part of that and we've had all these different leaders uh over the last few years that it wouldn't have made sense in my view simply to have yet another leader who would probably have been unelected uh well certainly unelected by the country but probably unelected by the members as well but but what do you sense in terms of sort of you know how how people feel about the fact that they don't feel they can move against him is there a sense of resignation or is it sort of resignation is probably part of the uh calculus I think there's always the desire to be calm and see what happens 6 months to the election long time uh things can happen there's no denying that they're bad results but I actually feel that rishy sunak uh it would be mad to move against him now we don't have the time and and it would look ridiculous frankly having a sixth prime minister in however many years five years six years um actually eight years um and that prime minister would not have a mandate either nationally or probably within the party so I think richy sunak is safe but all in all it's a bad set of result fras did you pick up the same sense um yeah if this wasn't the Calamity which some conservatives had been expecting I mean there is a scenario where you know vories lose tside they l no M there nothing to cling on to and that RI sunk is facing a leadership contest Etc and number 10 was always planning for this weekend they always thought this would be the moment of Maximum vulnerability and they could see all the stars lining in the wrong way now the the worst case scenario has not come to pass there is just enough for Richi SN to say look um labor didn't do quite as well as they thought we didn't do quite as badly as people expected so let's hang together now given the lack of real plausible alternative candidates to him I think the rebels would always have struggled to to move but now I think there is no question of a serious attempt on him I mean there are still the sort of um the the few who who will say well if we'd had Boris Johnson this would have happened oh they're right is that they're right I think they're right of course no there's no doubt the def ministration of Boris Johnson has led to the tor's been a far worse position this idea but if you you ditch the leader everybody's going to think wow great Tories they you see this party feuding I've got quasi to the right of me here and knows all all about how it looks to the public so this is I think those who said that had that ultimately bordis getting rid of Bor Johnson did not lead to a better position I think the jury is out so is back on that in it's return as verdict but it doesn't mean he's coming back or could be well he doesn't have a seat so it be he's not coming back before the election there's no way I can rule that out now there's no way that he's going to get a seat I think to fight uh at this general election not that he I'm sure he I'm sure I'm not sure he he even wants to do that no um Angela what do you what do you think overall well I I suspect I agree with the fact that Richie Stak is probably not going to have his party move against him now not because the results are particularly good but I think there was quite a bit of expectation management from Downing Street and they were put in a lot on these mty contests yet across the country um they're not good results for the conservative party in any way at all and I think you know Ben hin seat yes we had a lot of work a lot of effort in there that was more to do with the number of marginal seats we have around that area that we hope to win at the general election and in fact I think he's pulling something like 20% or so more than his political party so I don't think the conservative party could count on those seats those votes in the general election but it probably makes which soon act feel a little bit more secure will it impact on when he chooses to fight the general election time will tell down street game and everything aren't they but but but would labor is labor happier that he stays P I mean is is there an element if he goes that there's always a sort of a slight well might he be replaced by somebody better who causes us more problems every time the conservative party has chosen another leader it's been pretty dire for them so they I mean Boris in 2019 people forget this we were we were on 177% we scored 8.8% in the European election and we were facing uh working down the barrel of a gun Boris came in with Cummings whether you love them or loath them they actually turned things around and we got a majority that nobody anticipated yeah for a short time it didn't end well did it and that led to Liz trust Liz trust was then rejected by her own party in Parliament had to go you were there you know about of course and then we got with he wasn't chosen by his own party all these things work out well so I don't think he's going to go now I think he has to stick out would you rather he sticks it out not my choice I don't really care to be honest if the to toy part makes any difference well the toy party want to te themselves apart on another election I think the point you made was that they haven't got much choice of candidates now they hav to get a foreign secretary as the ex- prime minister in because they haven't got the people on their back benches to do the jobs now so I don't think they've got any choice but to stay with fishy sunak whether they like it or not I agree with that but for different reasons I think um the whole point of this period is that we were meant to be more stable so having another leader and putting another you know circus uh would would actually destabilize things and make things you and I both worked on that election campaign that was strong and stable of Coalition of chaos and what happened we got chaos from the cons but that's my point about the about how fickle these things can be I mean we were 20 points ahead and I remember when it was April 17 the polls suggested we were going to get a majority of 150 when that election was Co and then in the end we we I mean the last time you were here quazi I mean you you were clear that you didn't think there was going to be an early election no I don't when do you think the election will be now I hope it's in October but I suspect it'll be in November what why I think well that's just the sort of the rumor mill what I read um do you think he'll want to wait until after the US election I think so the US election to one side I think he needs time probably to have another fiscal event to show that you know he's going to show he's going to share the proceeds of you know the stability that he's created um and I think he can't really go to the country uh I'm sure he's calculating he can't really go to the country without some sort of fiscal event fras what are you hearing about election timing well the the the working assumption I've got is that was a Party Conference in October was a spring board to general election in November I think rushi sunak is an optimist who thinks that time is his friend and that by November you'll start to see trends for example um earnings out stripping inflation the waiting list coming down immigration coming down perhaps even the Rwanda scheme picking up momentum so I think every political leader has hard word into them the idea that Vindication is lying just around the corner and I think he feels he's got all these things that could come good over the summer by November they haven't come good now and if he just Waits people will see and he'll be able to point to something to say look my plan actually worked he doesn't love that at all right now so so why not wait till January I mean then that gives him as social media has been pointing out seen I that would be the ultimate desperation I think and also who's going to thank you really for a January election nowor I'm not sure anyone's that Keen on a November election now I went to the December election and it was freezing and miserable people don't want to come out they don't want to answer their doors um you know public will cast their verdict on a prime minister that chooses an election when they don't like the date as well my sense is that Prime Ministers always think there's something around the corner it's happened time time again I was at number 10 with golden brown and if you think back there was a good chance to go from the early election when he first became prime minister he didn't take it and I can remember Jim Callahan because I'm probably the oldest one here um saying that no we're not going to have an election and we're thinking back he might have been better going for an election um then when he said he wasn't going so Prime Ministers it's a tough call to make um and there's a tendency I think to hang on where sometimes they should say actually we can't guarantee there's something around the corner we might do better for our party if we do this now and when Fraser sort of lists those ideas you know that you wait for ideas to come to come through for the Rwanda plan to start happening for planes to be taking off do you think that makes a difference from from your point of view I'm not convinced it does though even if planes take off on the Randa plan it's a very very expensive policy for very very few Asylum Seekers and that's not going to change the landscape on this issue or deal with this issue at all as which we've always said so I don't think that changes it as when he's looking for something economically most people's experiences at the moment is life is pretty tough whether they're falling down potholes and haven't have their car repaired whether they're waiting for adaptations in their home whether they're looking at schools for their kids the resources that there away in their Hospital operations most people's experiences now are pretty tough they don't forget that in the space of a few weeks or three months so I think it's a tough call for the conservative party to turn things around do I think we've got it in the bag abs absolutely not but I think it's quite a gamble really uh are you just being sort of you know polite don't don't sound triumphalist I I'm being very Angela and cautious um I've been through enough elections to think they don't always turn out as you want them to but is he is is he really going to sit there and say something's going to C up and be around the corner it's going to be better I think that's a gamble for him but but the thing that the alternative is having had a 26% swing against you in black people's mouth he he's not going to have an election in the next two months make a difference though I think they so you're you're facing inevitable uh defeat and a bad defeat if you go uh soon because you don't have time to turn things around and if you wait you might you might see better outcomes but how many by elections will he face CU you know they're coming along at some speed at the moment haven't they every single one where the labor party doesn't traditionally have a good record on BI elections the Dems tend to do much better we have done spectacularly well including Blackport in the byelections are we going to have the election seat by seat by seat but the historical precedents are I mean everything changes obviously over time but I mean it's true that the byelection swings are bigger than they have been traditionally to labor but labor is not actually getting the the vote share that it's had in the past it's a few points behind where Tony Blair was at at a comparable Point well in Blackpool I think labor had one of the sharpest swings it's ever seen in its post War history there that was quite spectacular but we do see look it's the polls are quite clear that What's Happening Here is that support is draining from the conservatives and not really building on labor labor still at 43% it's not really at the kind of Boris Johnson almost got 50% and we've also seen in the last all these results certain problems of Labor labors about peeling away from the left in certain areas we saw it lose control of Olden for example we've um we saw the problem some issues in the West Midlands you know we so there is certain the case that there isn't enthusiasm for kir starmer in the way that there was for Tony Blair U but that doesn't really matter for labor all we need to know is for people to give up in the Tories I mean Tories have lost about half of the supporters they had in the last four years and when Rich talked about the biggest comeback in history to sort of central office workers this week I mean how did people react to that but he had to say that because it would be the big if he if we won the election it would be the biggest turn does anybody think the biggest turnaround in history is possible after the last few years you would not rule anything out I mean let's remember the apologist said that Donald Trump has a a 2% chance of winning the general election the same Zol just gave David Cameron a .5% chance of winning the 2015 general election in the majority so the history of the last 10 years has been people like us getting it completely and utterly and hopelessly wrong yeah no absolutely but but I mean the mood in the part do you think the party takes that goes has any belief that is possible I think the party is in a difficult place and they realize very clearly that we're underdogs but having lived through 2017 as you did um no one's taking anything for granted and so that means on the flip side there is still some hope what I find interesting is a number of conservative MPS and members of the House of Lords who will talk to me and say look we're done for are you going to do this have you thought of that there is a a mood within the conservative party I haven't seen before even when we've won elections that it's almost fatalist it was like6 I mean I was a student but I knew I knew that I mean nobody nobody thought we were going to win that election no but it's it's more than that now in 2010 there was a sense of the labor party look we're not going to do terbly well in this election we're not going to win this election but it's not how bad is it going to be it is different and I think it's the divisions in the conservative party the Randa policy being one thing divides people um and there are huge divisions along policy lines now the House of Lords on the Randa policy it went to ping pong on several votes it should never have done that the conservatives have 106 more peers than the labor party yeah but we don't have a majority in that house if you add all the you don't but even so you had 106 more than us they didn't turn up look at the numbers they didn't turn up and I think that is the sense of sort of almost fatalism they don't want to be there they don't be associated with this and good people some of them were in the building and didn't turn up to vote um and so I think there is a mood in the conservative party that divides the party members quite significantly I think the Parliamentary conservative party is probably bit different to the party on the ground as well the party on the ground though by and large the mood is of course labor is likely to Wi the next general election but let's start now about rebuilding and that is the the kind of I don't think if they think this an election is lost they're going to stop campaigning and go home and give up or you know if if anything it makes them more determined so you are now down to a small happy few who realize what's about to happen but the what happens after that is what they're talking about is is the party recoverable or not that's the big question and and and one of the factors in that I suppose is going to be reform which I want to talk about in a minute but let's first then talk about Labor um you know because because labor in the local elections did face a phenomenon in certain areas of um voters turning away from you on Gaza um is it just Muslims in which case you don't worry about it too much or is there something bigger going I would worry about it I don't want to lose support in any quarter so I wouldn't put it in those terms do you at all I worry about us if we lose support anywhere even if we're picking it up elsewhere um I think the results overall are very very good clearly in some areas Gaza did have an impact on some votes whether that will still be there at the time of the general election I don't know but we saw that in the Rochdale byelection how it was a factor um with George Galloway's party and I can't remember what it's called the current incarnation of that party is now but you know you are going to get issues that come up from time to time that damage a government party or an opposition party and you have to win the trust of those voters back and I'm hopefully I'm I think we can do that but we have to make it for them how though because you're not actually rethinking the policy at all you're not rethinking your St everyone's saying no we've got the right position but the extraordinary thing about that is a party in opposition that there was nothing that we could do that had an influence on events could lose but it's the tone isn't it it's making people believe that you care people no I entirely tely accept that and I think now we are much better explaining how we feel and getting that tone right but we have to win back the trust of those voters any voters on any issue didn't feel comfortable voting for us in this election but they can be sometimes especially in local elections people say actually I want a labor government but I'm not happy with something and I want to make that known and I think we did see an element of this you often find you know across all parties had this in local elections but we have to win that trust back and I'm confident we can do it is there a danger though that you get back into an a post Iraq war scenario in which people feel well here we go again labor will always sing the American Tune it doesn't care about our people you know it doesn't care about people in uh in the global south or or or or Muslims frankly in the Middle East um and uh and that that starts to great with all sorts of different constituencies of people young voters but that has I haven't picked that up in that sense in this election maybe not yet but I mean that what I mean is that the danger that you're facing if we didn't do something about it it would but I think we can address that it's definitely a feature I mean you know seats have been lost uh respect to whatever the the gallway party is called I forget uh briefly but they won two seats in Rochdale um so you're you're clearly losing some voters in in the elections that are happening now but we and we don't want to lose those voters we want to win them back and that's what we'll make every effort to do um but I say I think this is a feature of politics that issues can flare up and people feel very deeply rightly very deeply about issues like this and we have to ensure they can trust us on those issues yeah and we should say the Galloway group is the Workers Party of workers Workers Party of Britain um fras what do you make of this well we sort there's been some fascinating analysis which draws a direct correlation between the proportion of Muslims in the constituency and the demise of Labor vote so basically if if it's over 30% a very big drop on labor vote um and and reverts to to zero in that way now this is interesting because right now Muslims pre previously have been the group in Britain most likely to vote labor more than any other group uh now the Muslim Council of Britain which quite often calculate but there are 34 35 swing seats of the last election could be decided by the Muslim vote if you want to call it that so this raises the question how much will labor suffer from losing because obviously the the Gaza situation probably the single most divisive issue in politics right now you're still getting people on protests left right and Center how many of those people are going to be voting labor at the next election now personally I admire Kier starmer for standing so firm on this I mean the contrast between him and Jeremy Corbin could not be greater on this so I think he's probably winning more voters from those leaving the conservative party who admire the fact that he's sticking by his principles now like most party leaders he'll be thinking okay I'll probably gain more than I will lose here and on his Left Flank he doesn't really have anything organized George Galloway's party isn't really there in force like reform is with Richard Ty so what we're seeing is counselors leaving the labor party but becoming Independents and then running again as independent I think there's two things there one the conserv aren't picking those up but the other thing is the motivation of Kia Kia will do what he believes is the right thing to do and sometimes when you say that people may not like it initially there can be a short-term loss but I think there is a long-term game you stick to your principles his he does I think we're being I mean you know he's a decent man and all the rest of it but we're being a bit uh you know we're being not realistic about this he ran we forget but he ran as for the labor leadership on a leftwing ticket he basically presented himself uh as the heir of Jeremy Corban and then very cleverly he's moved to the center so this idea that he's a man of sort of iron Granite principle that just sticks to his principles all the time I don't I I question that I think characteriz I think I think he's been very political as you'd expect a limble leader to be yeah but on these big big issues with International significance he's not going to play Party politics he's made that clear from the moment he's been leader of the labor party and you wouldn't expect him to either would do and know even on things like we had the lockdown he did what he was the right thing to do and sometimes you get criticism from your own position has changed his position has shifted it's slightly shifted I mean well a circumstances he's gone from a position where he was almost defending the withholding of food and water he says by you know not in he wasn't saying that but it came aost like that circumstances change um no whether the lab party says yes we want an immediate ceasefire or we want a ceas fire now in order to get humanitarian Aid in is a bit sort of arguing on a pin you want the fighting to stop full stop what Fraser said about his contrast to Corbin is fundamental to this he saw what happened to Jeremy Corbin he saw that the whole anti-Semitism thing was really really damaging to the party and so he's deliberately moved away from that and he's presented himself essentially as a a sort of Centrist atlanticist he wasn't against the anti-centrism party just because it was damag into the party damag into the country it's a horrible thing I agree with all of that I'm not questioning his motive but I'm just saying he has distinguished himself from but just on this question I mean I've heard P mandon talking about this and he says that the the the reason why he doesn't worry electorally so much much about where this goes in the future is that he believes that there there is a group of people who are voting on principal on Gaza but they are not left Wingers you know it's not that they are Jeremy Corbin tendency economically or in any other way they feel very strongly that go to phras point they're not organized they're not organiz question is is could you know would there ever be could there ever be a sort of a bringing together of people who are disaffected with labor whether it's the sort of people like Owen Jones and George Galloway and people who are voting this way on um Gaza and people who are disappointed over climate do you end up with a sort of a a leftwing reform one day that's a bit like saying if everybody who didn't want the conservative party all gathered together and voted differently the conservative party you don't get everybody there's nuances of political views and there was always going to be you know on the climate issue you've got the greens uh on on Gaza you've got the George Galloway a lot of people who are disaffected with labor might vote libd so there are existing parties now that can that can hoover up a lot of that disaffection and the smaller parties often do better in local elections where they can make a direct case to the voters in the area and people are more willing to look at what they could do locally I think it's harder to cut through as a smaller party in a general election well well let's talk about one which is reform um now in what do you think the the the impact of Reform was in the local elections because the the story seems to be what they didn't quite do as well as people thought they might well I disagree I think they didn't stand in many seats I think they one in60s but where they did stand they got about 15% of the vote which is where they're pooling nationally now right now the big question about reform is do they actually exist as a party are they simply an opinion pole phenomenon uh because to win votes you need activists you need networks you need a whole apparatus which Richard Tyson's Associates just simply don't have so it was a bit of a question for him could they actually fight every seat in a general election or but where they did fight they got about as much as you'd expect them to get the important thing was but those votes everywhere they stood seriously weakened the Conservative candidate now reform don't have enough to get an MP in Parliament I don't think that's going to be the Electoral impact of them but what I do think they can do is increase labor majority by between 30 and 70 seats and right now we're big takeaways from local elections that the reform is a real phenomenon and if they do manage to get worked up by a November election they do stand to exerts considerable damage on the conservative that's exactly right I I mean I think the statistics I saw was that where reform wasn't standing the swing against us was much lower than than the swing was where they were standing so if you look at the Blackpool South that's the third biggest swing since the war now if reform hadn't stood I have no doubt we would have got more votes um and the swing would have been label of course would still have won but the swing would have been a lot less now that becomes very important uh in seats where you have safe conser in adverted Commerce safe I don't think any states are safe these days but safe conservative seats where the labor vote will probably max out maybe at 35 40% yeah but if the if the reform get the 15% and most of that's coming from the conservatives you can see labor winning seats on a 35 38% so why aren't they where youit were and could they be if Nigel farage comes back well they don't have as attractive a cause ukip had as a cause leaving the European Union which has it turns out 52% of the public wanted to do uh reform have just got a whole bunch of frustrations that the conservatives aren't conservative enough if you look at their agenda it's not far right it's not radical it's basically classic conservative and it's a yop of concern that the Tores have just jacked up taxes and jacked up spending and done the opposite of what they said they would do now so you and also there isn't a farage factor I think farage is an incredibly talented um political entrepreneur who was able to sort of bend the universe towards him as it were and really I remember the with the brexit party he took that from scratch to going first in the European Parliament elections and if there aren't that many people in this country who could do that he's one of them I don't think rtis is so what what should the conservative party do it's very it's a very difficult problem because on the one hand you've got to consolidate uh uh your your base but on the other hand you've got to appeal to uh former voters who are looking to labor or looking to parties crudely on on the left more on the left than you are so it's a very difficult Dynamic I think where Rishi sunak is right is that when the election comes into view people will have a binary choice because given where we are with first pass the post only two people can become Prime Minister K stama and Richi sunak and the calculation is that a lot of those reform voters who are voting reform or saying they're going vote reform in polls at the time of the general election we'll look at those Alternatives and vote conservative that's the that's the thinking now that might not happen that's a challenge but that's the that's the the rationale I think that's a challenge rather than thinking and a lot of the people who are standing as reformed candidates or voting reform are doing so partly the very point you made earlier about wanting the conservative party to change and they may think it's better to have the conservative party out of government even if the cost of that for them is a it will change the conservative party and so how wish she soon Act tax to deal with that you can either please some of your reform voters and lose your moderates or try and please the moderates and lose a reform voters it's difficult so I think that's quite a challenge know in my area U where I live you've got a reformed candidate who's a former conservative counselor no incumbent conservative MP and actually it starts to look interesting in those kinds of seats when you've got former conservatives standing reform and they actually dislike of the conservative party is great and their dislike of the labor if you get to the point where you know you're staring defeat in the face um and some people would say you're at that now why why not think about a packed a deal they're not going to do a deal I mean Richard tyus has said repeatedly and I don't even know what the deal looks like you'd lose other support wouldn't you um yeah and I I just don't see any advantage to that so as a matter of self-respect no National Party doesn't field the candidate in every seat um this is why for example the SNP isn't going to do a deal with Alex party you know and I think it's also it's also denying Dem voters a choice you want to at least make sure that voters got the chance to vote everywhere so a deal is the coward's option it doesn't going to happen for lots of and I don't think it would even work that effectively and where does that leave you in terms of how you feel about reform you know in electoral terms they are doing you good um do you think they are a good thing given the message that they put out no what we do in elections we go out with as many labor votes as you can and there's always other parties that take votes from your party and from the other party you never know the impact you couldn't guarantee that all the reform voters are former consern not they're not in the same way that people say oh if the green party didn't stand you would have won that election you can't know people vote how they want to vote the case we've got to make is it's worth voting labor and I think that's an easier case to make the next election is for the conservative party to say vote conservative so I think I think you're right but I think it's clear from looking at the numbers of the polling that most of the form vote so over 60% maybe 2/3 is coming from former conservative voters that's that I mean that seems fairly well established okay well as usual we'd like to end with a long range forecast so what's your one big takeaway from the local elections and how will they affect the general election you know what's effective the most profound thing that's happened this week quasi very interesting question I think that what strick me I think Downing Street did a very good job in terms of expectations management um because I think howchin winning he had 72% I mean it would have been a seismic uh political earthquake for him to lose but it's a victory uh and it's uh and and actually I think uh for Rishi sunak I think that's essentially secured him his job for until the election Angela I that's a pretty good answer 20% fall in your vote becoming a victory is quite an achievement for any political party to claim that I think for me it's the confidence of the labor party In terms you know talking to different areas voters on the doorstep we could win the next election it's looking know I'm not I'm one of these people that's very cautious but it does feel good and it looks good to people there and we just got to make that case so it gives me an optimism not a certainty but it gives me an optimism Fraser my big takeaway is that both parties face the serious challenge to The Fringe that reform is real they've proved that not just an opinion for phenomenon and labor has got a serious problem as as well um protecting its Left Flank now we'll see in the next few months what there will be I don't think it will change the outcome of the election but it could make the difference between a huge cure Storer majority and simply a good cure Storer majority but it'll be interesting to see mean mon of a problem we're six months out also the other thing that people forget is that if it happened to us in 17 if people think labor are running away with it there's a natural reaction to thing actually I don't want you're doing your best to tell people we're not running away with it and I think that's a fair point we're not running away with it but we certainly with a good chance but I think if there if that's the the the mood people will will turn against labor thank you all very much indeed that was this week's political forecast bye-bye

Channel: Channel 4 News

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Keywords: Channel 4 News, C4 news, Rishi sunak, sunak, local elections, local elections explained, england local elections, keir starmer, sunak v starmer, rishi sunak v keir starmer, politics, politics explained, westminster, westminster politics, reform party, labour party, conservative party, boris johnson, nigel farage, general election, uk elections 2024, liz truss, reform, blackpool south, blackpool election, krishnan guru-murthy, uk politics, us elections, trump, fraser nelson

Id: MAvPR-0IGhQ

Length: 32min 18sec (1938 seconds)

Published: Fri May 03 2024