- As the climate changes, we hear so many stories
about places in crisis from extreme weather. And many of those places are in the news over and over again. So we began to wonder, where will it be safe to live in 10, 30, or even 150 years? We asked six scientists this question, and let's just say- - Well, there are really
no safe places, right? - But as we dug deeper
in our conversations about climate migration, each expert helped us understand where and why people
will move in the future. And as it turns out, when multiple environmental
risks are weighed together, a prediction about the
least risky place to live in the United States is actually possible. At the end of our episode, we're going to call the government of the least risky county
in the United States, and see what they think about this and if they're prepared. So stay with us, and if you like this kind
of science-based perspective on extreme weather, climate
change, and how to prepare, give us a like, subscribe, and let us know what you think in the comments below. (ominous music) First, let's start by looking at the most basic part of climate change, which we know is that global
temperatures are rising. We spoke to two different experts who collaborated on a study exploring what they call
the Human Climate Niche. And it turns out that
humans prefer to live where the average annual temperature is between 50 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit. - If you picture a band in North America running from roughly Chicago or Boston in the North on over to Seattle and then down to, oh,
roughly say, Atlanta, it takes up most of the mid continent in North America and
almost all the West Coast. And the surprising thing
to me as an archeologist is that humans have had
that temperature preference for as far back as we can easily go in the archeological record. That's to say back to about
5,000 to 6,000 years ago. People have always been concentrated within that temperature band. - [Maiya] The one degree of global warming we've experienced hasn't
caused mass migration in the US just yet. Phoenix is one of the fastest growing and hottest places in the US, but we know the world is getting hotter. - You look at three degrees
centigrade warmer world, you find that we could
have 3 billion people in a three degree sea warmer world living at average temperatures, above what's experienced
by pretty much anyone anywhere on the planet today, by a few spots in the Sahara. And I don't think that
those 3 billion people would necessarily choose to stay in those kind of extraordinary
climate conditions if they had the choice to leave. And that then raises
the obvious question of, are they gonna come and live
with us in these continents, and are we gonna welcome them in? - [Maiya] Ken Caldeira put it
in even more specific terms when thinking about temperature and where we'll be
comfortable in the future. - The temperature bands moving, I think they're moving
something like 30 feet a day, so if you wanted to stay
in the same temperature, you need to move 30 feet northward a day. 10 years, you'd, on average, have to move 20 miles north. - Temperature is important, but I don't think temperature alone is likely to be the first factor to cause climate migration in the US. It seems likely that climate migration will be caused by a mix of factors. Astrid Caldas, with the
Union of Concerned Scientists put it like this. - With climate migration, people leave because they have to leave after a big disaster that
there's no turning back. Their house has been destroyed, they don't have insurance, they don't have the resources. They move to be with, you know, relatives or near relatives, or they go to a place where the cost of living is lower, where they can afford it. They just can't stay where
the disaster hit, right? - [Maiya] And client migration
is already happening. Wildfires, hurricanes,
and rising temperatures are pushing people to move. As temperatures across the Arctic rise, many Alaskan native communities have been forced to relocate. And after the campfire burned down over 11,000 homes in Paradise, survivors scattered all
across California and the US. - The actual boundaries of Earth's land are going to be changing. As our seas rise, we're no longer going to
have the same land available to us as was before. And as we lose that ice from
the Greenland ice sheet, it actually shows up most strongly at places far away from Greenland. People in, for example,
the Gulf Coast of the US are feeling the influences of losing ice. This is causing sea level rise, which includes coastal erosion, salt water from the ocean getting into fresh water
resources on the coast. We can also experience flooding, not just along the coastal
edge of the continent, but also farther inland because rising ocean waters can change our groundwater. - So clearly, the least risky places are not oceanfront. Many of the places most
at risk of sea level rise will see more hurricanes and the South will likely get too hot. We spoke to another expert
about an extreme event that causes an increase in
climate migration every year, wildfires and the smoke they produce. - In California, a lot
of insurance companies are canceling people's
homeowners insurance because of the risk of fire. Folks are having to buy
a secondary insurance that is cost prohibitive
for a number of individuals. It's basically like five times the rate of typical homeowners insurance. - So areas with high
wildfire risk are out. Actually John was a part of a study that used six risk criteria
to rank the climate risk level of every county in the US. We discussed a few of
these factors already in extreme heat, sea level changes, and wildfire danger. The study also accounted
for economic damages from rising energy costs,
real estate destruction, plus low work and crop productivity. So what did they find? The top 30 least risky counties were found in the Northwest. Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, and a high concentration in the Northeast And the one they rated as the least risky, Lamoille County in Vermont. We reached out to Lamoille County and asked them how aware
they are of their position as a potential climate haven and how prepared they feel for an influx of climate refugees. - Well, we know it's a lovely
place already, (chuckles) so, the county as a whole, we've got somewhat less
than 30,000 people. The commercial center is probably the town of Morrisville, but again, that's less than 10,000 people. Well, we talked about climate migration a great deal in Vermont. There's been a number of media stories about people moving to Vermont to escape extreme weather on the coast or Western wildfires. One of our board members right here moved here from Brooklyn after her apartment flooded after Sandy. - Our apartment flooded so that was a wake up call, I think. And we literally ran for the hills. We packed up our life
and we moved to Vermont. I'm very aware of the privilege that I had in being able to move up here. And when I do think of
myself as a climigrant, I say that very lightly because
I was not fleeing famine, I was not fleeing war, you know. I didn't have to walk with
just my clothes on my back and my family across an
international border. I didn't have to live in a detention camp. You know, I just got like, I got in my Toyota and I drove up here. And I do think Vermont is making efforts to be a hospitable place
to resettling refugees. - We have a lot of work to do to be ready. We have a housing shortage in Vermont and some of our smaller towns and villages don't have the water
or wastewater capacity to really develop a lot of housing. So we're spending a lot of time looking at how we will manage with a lot more people coming here because we do anticipate that. - But as we look towards our future, how do we prepare ourselves to be as resilient as possible in the face of a changing climate? - So there are many different challenges that we face as the climate changes, and the best way for us both to adjust to the changes that we
know are going to come, but also take the strong action needed in order to reduce the pace of change, those are all elements that
require us to work together and communicate with each other, and really build collaborative spaces from the local level all the way up to the international level. So I really encourage people to think not just about their physical safety but also the kind of
emotional and workspaces that we can create connections that are really gonna help us be able to face these challenges. - Have you or anyone you know moved as a result of extreme weather? Do they think of it as climate migration and what kind of extreme weather and climate would it take
for you to leave your home? Let us know in the comments, we'd love to hear your thoughts. And as always, be safe.
