This Is The Legacy Iran President Ebrahim Raisi, 'Butcher Of Tehran,' Leaves Behind: Analyst

[Music] hi everybody I'm Britney Lewis with Forbes breaking news joining me now is Gregory Brew analyist with your Asia group Gregory thank you for joining me once again thanks for having me back on Britney a helicopter crash over the weekend killed the Iranian president foreign minister and other officials before we dive into what this means for Iran what's your reaction well the accident came is a pretty big shock um it appears to have been an accident the helicopter was flying through some heavy weather in the mountains of Northwest Northwestern Iran uh the president ibraim RI and the foreign minister were traveling with a number of other high-ranking officials they were coming back from uh a meeting in aeran and the helicopter went down in heavy weather that was a prolonged search and rescue operation and eventually the wreckage was found and the president was confirmed dead so yes a shock a surprise uh there have been funerals and commemorations in Iran marking the death of the president the government does appear to be making plans for a snap election to choose a new president I do want to talk about just who RI is we saw throngs of people outside for his funeral procession he also had the nickname The Butcher of Tyron so who is president RI certainly ibraim RI was uh someone whose history went back to the beginning of the Islamic Republic the Islamic revolution of the 1970s he played a crucial role in the uh regime rounding up uh and execution of political prisoners during the 1980s uh he served as a judge and an executioner of those prisoners he had a pry bit of a Grizzly reputation within Iran's political system uh he was also uh very much a figure on the rise he came to prominence in 2016 as head of the Judiciary again serving as a judge carrying out Iran's rather strict code of law uh he then arose through the ranks and became president in 2021 through an election that was pretty carefully stage managed by authorities ensuring that his uh that he would be selected as president he was very close to supreme leader Ali and very close to the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps a hardliner through and through who was also occasionally uh pinged as a potential successor to K who of course is 85 years old and uh in very poor health so RI was something of a rising star he was an arch conservative he was known as a brutal figure um but very much one who star was on the ascent and his sudden death his sudden demise has thrown the question of Iran's political future into uh into a bit a bit more question there's a little bit more confusion as to what will happen now that he's gone both in the near- term as far as picking a new president and also in the medium term as far as who may succeed Ali H when he does eventually die before we talk about the what ifs and the what's next you mentioned that he was a leader on the rise just how powerful was he in Iran was he the most powerful leader in that country oh no not by any means I mean the executive power in the Islamic Republic of Iran is uh is managed is held by the Supreme Leader this has been the case really since the uh the beginnings of the regime through the revolution of 1979 when supreme power was held by supreme leader h and this then passed to Ali K in 1989 the president's role uh shifted uh depending on who filled that role there having been figures in the past Hassan raanani in the 1990s um Mahmud akad during the 2000s was a colorful figure who occupied the role of President um RI really played a secondary role he followed K's lead he did as he was told in many cases and deferred to both to K and the leadership of the Revolutionary guard Corps so he was a secondary figure as far as uh managing Iran's Affairs he did run the civilian government I mean the president does play an important role there but as far as who was calling the shots in Iran that was and remains uh the supreme leader K he's a secondary leader you mentioned he does have or did have a Grizzly reputation can you talk a little bit about what Iran looked like under his rule certainly so he became president in 2021 as I mentioned through an election that was pretty carefully stage managed uh the authorities wanted to ensure that he emerged as Victor in that election so they went to Great Lengths to make sure that he didn't really face any significant uh competition uh the result of that election however was very low turnout uh Iranians generally started to see these elections as sham Affairs uh turnout has been low under I um also as president he he wasn't really very successful the economy has done very poorly there is widespread corruption um obviously there hasn't been a new deal new nuclear arrangement with the United States so sanctions have remained very much in place living standards have been dropping uh there have also been multiple crises that have occurred under his watch including the Regional Crisis that Iran currently finds itself in it of course is in a state of heightened confrontation with Israel uh occasional confrontation with the United States R's reputation other than being a sort of a a Grizzly ideologue who was close to K he was generally regarded as incompetent as a poor leader as someone who didn't really have a great handle on the position of President uh so his departure uh there are as you mentioned large crowds turning out for the commemorations and for his funeral I think in general uh there AR too many folks who are uh sad to see him go I do want to talk about those multiple crises unfolding under his watch as you mentioned does this impact them at all I'm talking about the Israel Hamas War as well as the houthis Hezbollah because Iran has backed Hamas the houthis and heah absolutely so Iran's foreign policy is unlikely to change uh and that gets to the point I made earlier which is that the president doesn't really have a whole lot of say over that foreign policy it remains largely in the hands of H and officers in the Revolutionary guard Corps uh RI supported uh these policies he was close to these other groups in the resistance front uh and whoever succeeds him as president is likely to maintain the same policy Iran finds itself uh in a precarious position uh regarding the war in Gaza uh it of course fired on Israel IR ly for the first time in April and has promised to do so again if it comes under attack uh so the security situation in the region remains precarious it remains quite unstable so for Iran for Iran's government to now have to uh plan and carry out a snap election uh it's happening under uh not the best circumstances and it suggests that instability could increase uh Without Really any warning in the event of another unexpected crisis those snap elections as you mentioned are happening under a um a cloud of conflict what do you think the post post RI Iran will look like well I think the authorities including kame will work hard to manage this election as they manag the election of R in 2021 uh we won't really see any significant changes there are moderates and reformists who are active in Iran's political scene who will try to run for president and try to put themselves in a position to carry out reforms and changes that are badly needed in Iran I think there's a general consensus that the Iranian political status quo is untenable however the authorities and K will work to exclude those figures the election to replace RI will be managed it will be choreographed to some extent to make sure that another hard liner with close ties to the leader close ties to the irgc is selected to replace RI there are a number of figures of personalities in the political Spectrum who might very well emerge as likely candidates we'll know a little bit more a few weeks once the candidates have been announced but I would expect very little change uh the death of RI will likely only prove to be a hiccup uh in terms of the near term though there could be larger longer term consequences the state department released a um a statement on his death and I want to read it in part it reads this the United States expresses its official condolences for the death of Iranian president I uh Ry what are your thoughts on this statement well I think it kind of speaks to the administration's General approach uh to the US Iranian relationship uh which if I had to sum it up in one phrase would be uh to not rock the boat uh the US and Iran remain in a confrontational stance the United States has not ended its sanctions policy it remains in confrontation against Iran it remains an opposition to Iran there are ongoing US military operations against against the houthis who are a major Iranian Ally uh the United States carried out a number of air strikes against Iran's allies in Iraq and Syria uh so of course there's there's no increase or thaw uh between the US and Iran that being said I think the B Administration wants to do what it can to avoid escalating tensions with Iran and this brief message uh to note the death of Iran's president kind of goes to that policy the United States is trying to improve the state of diplomacy with Iran there was reports last week of another round of informal talks indirect talks between us and Iranian officials in Oman the United States is still very concerned about Iran's nuclear program and is looking for ways to mitigate that risk so I think the Biden Administration is still approaching Iran from the point of view of we're not going to be friends but we're going to try to avoid action that escalates the confrontation and search for ways to improve the relationship albeit slowly and over a longer period of time Gregory in this conversation you described R using words like Grizzly secondary figure incompetent amongst others so what do you think his legacy is going to be if I had to sum it up in one word it would be failure RI was set up to be president he was promoted to his position he was backed by the the real power Brokers in the country including the supreme leader K he was put in a position to exercise Authority as president to burnish his credentials perhaps with a view towards eventually making him the supreme leader and he broadly failed at that task his presidency was noted uh with repeated failures it was marked by crisis the economy continues to do very poorly there has been a broad uh increase in popular dissatisfaction there was of course uh the profound wave of protests that struck in 2022 in the aftermath of the death of Masa amini which has brought the issue of hijab uh to the Forefront of Iranian politics an issue around which the regime continues to struggle uh and he died in a freak accident that could very well have been the result of his own miscalculation uh there remain questions as to why he or others with him chose to fly through particularly heavy weather in an old helicopter uh so he goes out uh sort of tarnished I would say his reputation has been significantly diminished by his time as president and he may very well go down in history as the worst president the Islamic Republic has seen to date Gregory Brew per usual I appreciate your Insight your expertise thanks again for joining me thank you so much for having me on for

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Length: 11min 36sec (696 seconds)

Published: Wed May 22 2024