>> Steve: DIRE PREDICTIONS OF
AN OVERPOPULATED PLANET HAVE
BEEN WITH US FOR CENTURIES. WHAT IF THEY'RE JUST PLAIN
WRONG? THAT'S EFFECTIVELY WHAT DARRELL
BRICKER AND JOHN IBBITSON ARGUE
IN THEIR NEW BOOK. IT'S CALLED, "EMPTY PLANET: THE
SHOCK OF GLOBAL POPULATION
DECLINE." AND IT BRINGS COLLABORATORS:
DARRELL BRICKER, THE CEO OF
IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS, AND GLOBE AND MAIL WRITER AT LARGE JOHN
IBBITSON, TO OUR STUDIO TONIGHT. GREAT TO HAVE YOU TWO GENTS
HERE. >> THANKS FOR HAVING US. >> Steve: LET'S SET THIS UP. THIS WILL TAKE A BIT OF TIME, SO
GET COMFY. 1968, STANFORD UNIVERSITY,
PERHAPS THE MOST FAMOUS BOOK ON
THE FEARS OF POPULATION, IT'S CALLED "THE POPULATION BOMB,"
AND HE BEGINS THE BOOK THUS: >> Steve: A DECADE EARLIER, IN
1968, THE GREAT PROGNOSTICATOR
OF DOOM HAD THIS TO SAY IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE GREAT MIKE
WALLACE. IF YOU WILL, PLEASE. >> IN GENERAL TERMS IT CAN BE
CALLED OVERPOPULATION. THE MOUNTING PRESSURE OF
POPULATION PRESSING ON EXISTING
RESOURCES. THIS OF COURSE IS AN
EXTRAORDINARY THING. SOMETHING IS HAPPENING WHICH HAS
NEVER HAPPENED IN THE WORLD'S
HISTORY BEFORE, THE WHOLE ESSENCE OF BIOLOGICAL LIFE ON
EARTH IS A QUESTION OF BALANCE,
AND WHAT WE HAVE DONE IS TO PRACTISE DEATH CONTROL IN A MOST
INTENSIVE MANNER WITHOUT
BALANCING THIS WITH DIVERSE CONTROL AT THE OTHER END. >> Steve: AND NOW ONE MORE. SOMETHING FOR OUR GENERATION
HERE. 1973. HOLLYWOOD. CHARLETON HESTON, SOYLENT GREEN. LET'S GO. >> NEW YORK CITY, IN THE YEAR
2022. NOTHING RUNS ANYMORE. NOTHING WORKS. BUT THE PEOPLE ARE THE SAME. AND THE PEOPLE WILL DO ANYTHING
TO GET WHAT THEY NEED. >> THIS IS THE POLICE. >> WHAT THEY NEED MOST IS
SOYLENT GREEN. >> THE SUPPLY OF SOYLENT GREEN
HAS BEEN EXHAUSTED. >> Steve: REMEMBER WHAT
SOYLENT GREEN IS? >> OH, YEAH. WE TALK ABOUT IT IN THE BOOK. >> Steve: WE WON'T GIVE IT
AWAY. JOHN, YOU FIRST. THE FEARS OF OVERPOPULATION
CLEARLY HAVE BEEN WITH US FOR A
LONG TIME. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU FEEL THIS
BOOK PUTS THAT TO REST? >> John Ibbitson: WELL, NOT TO
REST. IT RAISES A QUESTION ABOUT IT,
THOUGH. BY THE WAY, THOSE FEARS ARE WITH
US STILL. IF YOU'RE WATCHING NETFLIX, IF
YOU'RE GOING TO THE MOVIES, HOW
OFTEN IS THE PLOT PREMISED ON THE NOTION THAT WE HAVE SO
OVERPOPULATED THE EARTH THAT WE
HAVE SPOILED THE ATMOSPHERE. WE CAN ONLY LIVE ON MOONS OF
JUPITER. SO IT'S WITH US STILL. AND NOT SURPRISINGLY. THE UNITED NATIONS POPULATION
DIVISION BELIEVES THAT WE WILL
GET TO ABOUT 11.2 BILLION PEOPLE BY THE END OF THE CENTURY, MORE
THAN 4 BILLION MORE THAN ARE
AROUND RIGHT NOW, AND THAT'S GOING TO PRODUCE A LOT OF STRESS
ON THE ENVIRONMENT, ON SOCIETY. BUT THERE IS A GROWING BODY OF
DEMOGRAPHERS WHO BELIEVE THAT
THE U.N. IS WRONG. >> Steve: LET'S PUT THE
NUMBERS UP, SINCE YOU JUST
BROUGHT IT UP. GO AHEAD, SHELDON. WE'LL BRING THIS GRAPHIC UP. WORLD POPULATION PREDICTION. THERE IT IS IN 2017, AT
7.6 BILLION, AND IT GOES UP, THE
YEAR 2030, TO 8.6 BILLION, BY THE MIDWAY PART OF THE CENTURY
TO 9.8 BILLION AND AS JOHN JUST
SUGGESTED BY THE END OF THE # 1ST CENTURY, 11.2 BILLION PEOPLE
ON THE PLANET. MR. BRICKER, WHAT DO YOU THINK
OF THE PROGNOSTICATION? >> Darrell Bricker: IT'S BASED
ON A MODEL THAT HAS PROBLEMS
WITH IT. IT'S PROVED RIGHT IN THE PAST,
IT HAS A PRETTY GOOD RECORD, BUT
THE PROBLEM THEY'VE GOT IS THERE ARE THINGS CHANGING SO RAPIDLY
THAT AREN'T TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
IN THE WAY THEY DO THE MODELLING THAT THEY'RE MISSING THE FACT
THAT THE CHANGE THAT THEY
SUGGEST NEEDS TO HAPPEN HAS ALREADY STARTED TO HAPPEN AND
HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR A NUMBER
OF YEARS. >> Steve: THE NOTION THAT THIS
POPULATION BOMB HAS BEEN OVER
TIME GATHERING STEAM AND WILL EVENTUALLY AT SOME POINT EXPLODE
IS ABOUT THE MOST CONVENTIONAL
WISDOM GOING TODAY AND IN FACT, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN GO DECADES, IF
NOT CENTURIES INTO THE PAST. WHERE DID YOU GET THE NOTION
THAT THIS MIGHT NOT BE ACCURATE? >> John Ibbitson: WELL, IT WAS
IN FACT SOMETHING THAT WE HAD
BOTH BEEN WATCHING FOR SOME YEARS. THIS DEMOGRAPHER AND THEN THAT
DEMOGRAPHER AND THEN THAT
DEMOGRAPHER, WILLIAM LUTZ I GUESS IS THE BEST KNOWN OF THEM
IN VIENNA, WERE SAYING, YOU
KNOW, THEY'RE JUST NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS AND THEY'RE
JUST NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT
THAT. AND WHEN YOU DO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THIS AND THAT, YOU
DISCOVER IT DOESN'T GET TO 11 BILLION BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY, IT GETS TO AROUND
9 BILLION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY AND THEN IT STARTS TO GO
DOWN. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HUMAN
HISTORY, WE WILL BE, OVER TIME,
DELIBERATELY CULLING OURSELVES BY HAVING FEWER BABIES THAN WE
NEED TO REPRODUCE. AND THERE ARE GREAT THINGS ABOUT
THAT AND BAD THINGS ABOUT THAT
AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT IT, BUT THAT IS WHAT THIS GROUP AND I
THINK A GROWING BODY OF EVIDENCE
IN SUPPORT OF THAT GROUP SUGGEST IS GOING TO HAPPEN. >> Steve: WE WILL GO DEEPER ON
THIS, OBVIOUSLY. IS THAT ESSENTIALLY IN A
NUTSHELL WHAT IT'S ABOUT. IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES WE ARE
HAVING FEWER CHILDREN AND EVEN
IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES THEY'RE HAVING FEWER CHILDREN. IS THAT IT? >> Darrell Bricker: THE KEY TO
THAT IS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
BECAUSE THE ASSUMPTION IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IN TERMS OF
REDUCTION IN FERTILITY IN
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IS A PRETTY WELL-ACCEPTED FACT NOW. YOU DON'T EVEN HAVE TO GO TO THE
NUMBERS. JUST LOOK AT YOUR OWN FAMILIES
FOR THE MOST PART. THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS. BUT FOR THE MOST PART, PEOPLE
ARE HAVING TWO KIDS OR FEWER. I MEAN, THE FERTILITY RATE OF
CANADA TODAY IS 1.6 BUT THAT
MATCHES ALL THE NORDIC COUNTRIES, THAT MATCHES ALL THE
WESTERN EUROPE, AND IN FACT THEY
GOT THEIR FASTER AND NOW EUROPE BASICALLY IS LOSING PEOPLE EVERY
YEAR. SO EVERYBODY KNOWS THAT, BUT
40 PERCENT OF THE WORLD'S
POPULATION LIVES IN TWO PLACES: INDIA AND CHINA. WHEN YOU FIND OUT THAT CHINA HAS
A BIRTH RATE OF 1.5 AND INDIA
HAS JUST BEEN REPORTED AT A BIRTH RATE OF 2.1, YOU SIT BACK
AND SAY, MAYBE WE'RE NOT GOING
TO EXPLODE. >> Steve: YOU GUYS ARE NOT
SETTING A VERY GOOD EXAMPLE. ONE KID. NO KIDS. YOU'RE NOT EXACTLY HOLDING UP
YOUR END OF THE BARGAIN HERE,
ARE YOU? >> Darrell Bricker: WE'RE
REPRESENTATIVE. >> Steve: YOU'RE
REPRESENTATIVE. THAT IS TRUE. WHAT HAVE YOU FOUND TO BE SOME
OF THE MAJOR DRIVERS OF
POPULATION DECLINE? >> John Ibbitson: THERE'S
REALLY JUST ONE THAT MATTERS
MORE THAN ANY OTHER, AND IT'S URBANIZATION. WHEN YOU MOVE FROM THE
COUNTRYSIDE TO THE CITY, A BUNCH
OF THINGS HAPPEN THAT RESULT IN FEWER CHILDREN. AND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
HISTORY, WE ARE NOW A SPECIES
THAT LIVES MOSTLY IN CITIES. RIGHT NOW 55 PERCENT OF HUMANS
LIVE IN CITIES. ESSENTIALLY WHAT HAPPENS WHEN
YOU MOVE TO A CITY IS A CHILD
STOPS BEING AN ASSET AND BECOMES A LIABILITY. >> Steve: I LOVE THE WAY YOU
DESCRIBE THAT IN THE BOOK. >> WHEN YOU'RE IN THE CITY IT'S
JUST ANOTHER MOUTH TO FEED. ANOTHER THING THAT IS AS
IMPORTANT IF NOT MORE IMPORTANT,
WHEN YOU MOVE FROM THE COUNTRYSIDE TO THE CITY, WOMEN
ACQUIRE EDUCATION. THEY HAVE ACCESS NOW TO STATE
SCHOOL SYSTEMS THAT THEY DIDN'T
HAVE WHEN THEY WERE OUT IN THE VILLAGE. THEY HAVE ACCESS TO MEDIA. AND THEY HAVE ACCESS TO OTHER
WOMEN. AND THEY BECOME BETTER EDUCATED. AND AS SOON AS WOMEN BECOME
BETTER EDUCATED, AS SOON AS THEY
HAVE ANY KIND OF ABILITY TO CONTROL ANY ASPECTS OF THEIR
DESTINY, THE FIRST THING THEY
DEMAND IS THE RIGHT TO HAVE SOME CONTROL OVER THEIR OWN BODIES. AND ONCE WOMEN HAVE SOME CONTROL
OVER THEIR OWN BODIES, THE FIRST
THING THEY DECIDE TO DO IS HAVE FEWER CHILDREN. AND IT IS URBANIZATION THAT IS
LEADING TO AN ACCELERATION IN
THE DECLINE OF BIRTH RATES THROUGHOUT THE DEVELOPING WORLD
AND SOME OF THE BIGGEST
COUNTRIES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD. >> Steve: YOU GUYS GOT TO
TRAVEL TO A LOT OF PLACES TO
WRITE THIS BOOK, AND WE ARE GOING TO GO, FIGURATIVELY, TO
SOME OF THOSE PLACES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL MINUTES. WE'LL END UP AT CANADA. BUT LET'S START WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION WHERE YOU HAVE A
FERTILITY RATE REPORTED HERE OF 1.6 BIRTHS PER WOMAN. WHAT IS THE DEMOGRAPHIC STORY
YOU SEE HAPPENING ACROSS EUROPE? >> Darrell Bricker: RAPIDLY
AGING. BECAUSE THAT'S THE OTHER PART OF
THIS. WE'RE NOT BRINGING IN KIDS AT
THE BOTTOM. WHAT WE'RE REALLY GETTING GOOD
AT IS KEEPING PEOPLE ON THE
PLANET. WE'RE NOT GOOD AT MAKING NEW
PEOPLE. WE'RE REALLY GOOD AT KEEPING
THEM ON THE PLANET. YOU HAVE A NUMBER OF COUNTRIES
THAT ARE NOW IN A SITUATION
WHERE THEY'RE LOSING POPULATION EVERY YEAR. SO THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THAT'S GOING
TO BE THE FUTURE. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. AND THE FACTORS THAT JOHN
POINTED TO ARE EXACTLY WHAT'S
HAPPENING. IT'S WOMEN TAKING CONTROL OVER
THEIR OWN DESTINY, DECIDING
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE SMALLER FAMILIES, AND IT HAS NOW BECOME,
AS ONE DEMOGRAPHER DESCRIBED IT,
A LOW FERTILITY TRAP. >> Steve: ISN'T THIS A BIT
SHOCKING GIVEN THAT, JOHN? ITALY IS THE MOST CATHOLIC
COUNTRY ON EARTH. SPAIN IS A VERY CATHOLIC
COUNTRY. YOU WOULD THINK THESE VERY
CATHOLIC COUNTRIES WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE CHURCH, OR PERHAPS NOT ANYMORE, WOULD BE
HAVING MORE KIDS. >> John Ibbitson: TWO OTHER
THINGS HAPPEN WHEN YOU URBANIZE. WE HAVEN'T SAID IT AND PROBABLY
WE SHOULD. THE NUMBER 2.1. 2.1 IS THE NUMBER OF CHILDREN ON
AVERAGE THAT WOMEN NEED TO HAVE
IN ORDER TO SUSTAIN A POPULATION. >> Steve: CAN I JUST STOP YOU
THERE? TWO I GET. WHY 2.1? >> John Ibbitson: CHILDREN WHO
DON'T LIVE TO BECOME WOMEN
THEMSELVES. THAT'S ESSENTIAL. BASICALLY --
>> Darrell Bricker: OR
INCAPABLE. >> Steve: GOT IT. >> John Ibbitson: IF YOU'RE
OVER 2.1, YOUR SOCIETY GROWS IN
POPULATION. IF YOU'RE UNDER 2.1, YOU START
TO LOSE POPULATION. AND ANOTHER THING THAT HAPPENS
WHEN YOU MOVE TO THE COUNTRYSIDE
TO THE CITY IS THE POWER OF RELIGION DECLINES. THERE ISN'T A RELIGION IN THIS
WORLD THAT IN ITS CONVENTIONAL
FORM DOES NOT AGREE WITH EVERY OTHER RELIGION IN THIS WORLD,
THAT MEN ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN
WOMEN, WOMEN SHOULD STAY IN THE HOME AND LOOK AFTER THE NEEDS OF
THE FAMILY AND THE MAN, AND THAT
WOMEN SHOULD HAVE LOTS OF KIDS. THAT'S PRETTY UNIVERSALLY A
CONSTANT. BUT WHEN YOU URBANIZE, THE POWER
OF RELIGION COLLAPSES AND
SUDDENLY PEOPLE STOP GOING TO MASS OR WHATEVER IT IS THEY'RE
NOT GOING TO AND FERTILITY RATES
DECLINE. ALSO THE POWER OF THE CLAN. IN A VILLAGE, IT'S ALL ABOUT YOU
AND YOUR FAMILY AND YOUR
EXTENDED FAMILY. THOSE AUNTIES WHO ARE TRYING TO
CONVINCE YOU IT'S TIME YOU
SETTLED DOWN AND HAD A KID. YOU MOVE TO THE CITY, IT'S NOT
ABOUT THE AUNTIES ANYMORE. IT'S ABOUT YOUR CO-WORKERS. WHEN IS THE LAST TIME YOUR
CO-WORKER URGED YOU TO HAVE A
BABY. >> Steve: GOOD QUESTION. DOES IT HAPPEN ANYMORE? >> Darrell Bricker: NOT IN THE
OFFICES I'VE WORKED IN. >> Steve: LET'S TALK ABOUT
IMMIGRATION POLICY AND THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, WHICH HAVE
TENDED TO BE MORE OPEN TO
IMMIGRATION, AND EASTERN EUROPEAN ONES, WHICH HAVE TENDED
CERTAINLY LATELY TO BE MUCH MORE
CLOSED. HOW DOES THAT HAVE AN IMPACT ON
ALL OF WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT? >> Darrell Bricker: ONE OF THE
SOLUTIONS TO THIS, IF YOU
BELIEVE THAT POPULATION DECLINE IS A PROBLEM YOU NEED TO DEAL
WITH, IS IMMIGRATION. CANADA IS AN EXAMPLE OF A
COUNTRY THAT'S FIGURED OUT A WAY
TO DEAL WITH THIS. THERE ARE NOT MANY OTHER
COUNTRIES THAT HAVE. THE UNITED STATES CERTAINLY. AUSTRALIA TO A CERTAIN EXTENT. BUT MOST OF EUROPE HAS NOW, IN
CONTEMPORARY TIMES, REALLY
STRUGGLED WITH THIS QUESTION. ONE OF THE ISSUES THEY ALL DEAL
WITH POLITICALLY IS POPULISM. AND ONE OF THE BIGGEST DRIVERS
OF POPULISM AND OTHER VIEWS,
NATIVIST VOTING, HAS BEEN A CULTURE DUE TO IMMIGRATION. IT IS A VERY, VERY DIFFICULT
SOLUTION TO IMPLEMENT. JAPAN, FOR EXAMPLE, ONE OF ITS
OBVIOUS SOLUTIONS, THEY'RE
LOSING ABOUT 450,000 PEOPLE A YEAR, BUT THEY DON'T HAVE
IMMIGRATION. >> Steve: WE'RE GOING TO GET
THERE. THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC HAS PAID
CITIZENS TO HAVE MORE KIDS. THEY HAVE A BIRTH OF 1.3 BIRTHS
PER WOMAN. HISTORICALLY, JOHN, HOW
SUCCESSFUL HAVE THESE ATTEMPTS
BEEN TO GET PEOPLE TO HAVE MORE CHILDREN. >> John Ibbitson: NOT
SUCCESSFUL ENOUGH AND NEVER
PERMANENTLY SUCCESSFUL. THE WHOLE SCANDINAVIAN NORDIC
MODEL WAS ACTUALLY PREMISED ON
CONCERNS THAT DATED BACK BEFORE THE SECOND WORLD WAR, THAT THEIR
POPULATIONS WERE GOING TO GO
INTO DECLINE BECAUSE THEY HAD VERY LOW BIRTH RATES. EXTENDED PARENTAL LEAVE. STATE SUPPORT FOR DAY CARE. CHILD PAYMENTS. YOU CAN RIDE ON THE TRAM FOR
FREE IF YOU'VE GOT A BABY
STROLLER. ALL OF THOSE THINGS DO HAVE SOME
IMPACT. QUEBEC'S MOVE TO SUBSIDIZED DAY
CARE DID HAVE SOME IMPACT. IT BROUGHT QUEBEC FROM THE
LOWEST FERTILITY RATE IN CANADA
UP TO ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK. BUT IT NEVER BRINGS YOU UP TO
2.1. NO SOCIETY HAS BEEN ABLE TO
CONVINCE PEOPLE TO GET BACK UP
TO REPLACEMENT RATE. AND THESE ARE VERY EXPENSIVE
PROBLEMS. INVARIABLY WHEN THE NEXT
RECESSION HITS, THOSE PROGRAMS
GET CUT BACK. >> Steve: FIRST THING TO GO. SHALL WE GO TO JAPAN NOW? JAPAN IN THE 21ST CENTURY WAS AN
ECONOMIC MARVEL. NOW YOU'VE GOT AN OLD SOCIETY,
HAVING KIDS AT A RATE OF 1.4
BIRTHS PER WOMAN. TAKE US DOWN THE ROAD AND TALK
TO US ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AN OLD AND SHRINKING JAPAN. >> Darrell Bricker: THE
BIGGEST PROBLEM THAT THEY HAVE
IS THEY DON'T HAVE CONSUMERS. OLD PEOPLE DON'T BUY THE SAME
NUMBER OF THINGS THAT YOUNG
PEOPLE DO. IF WE HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT'S
BASED ON CONSUMPTION, YOU'RE
ALWAYS GOING TO STRUGGLE WITH THAT. WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE COST
OF A POPULATION LIKE THAT, OLD
POPULATIONS ARE EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE POPULATIONS: PENSIONS,
HEALTH CARE, ALL THE ISSUES THAT
YOU HAVE TO DEAL WITH AS PEOPLE AGE ARE EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE FOR
A SHRINKING NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN
THE POPULATION TO PAY FOR. SO THE POTENTIAL FOR A REAL
GENERATIONAL DIFFICULTY IN JAPAN
IS LOOMING. IT'S ALREADY STARTED NOW, BUT
IT'S REALLY GOING TO BE A
PROBLEM AS THEY ROLL INTO THE FUTURE. >> Steve: FOR MANY COUNTRIES,
JOHN, IN THIS PICKLE, THEY WOULD
SIMPLY OPEN THE DOORS TO IMMIGRATION A LITTLE WIDER AND
SETTLE IT. YOU TELL US THAT'S NOT REALLY AN
OPTION FOR JAPAN. HOW COME? >> John Ibbitson: IT'S
CULTURAL. IT'S NOT JUST JAPAN, OF COURSE. CHINA. WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE
WORLD'S LARGEST COUNTRY IN TERMS
OF POPULATION -- NOT FOR LONG. RIGHT NOW 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE. THEY HAVE A FERTILITY RATE OF
1.5. THEY'RE HALF A BABY SHY. THEY'VE LIFTED THE DISASTROUS
ONE-CHILD POLICY IN THE HOPES OF
PEOPLE HAVING MORE KIDS. THAT WON'T WORK. THE LOW FERTILITY TRAP AS IT'S
CALLED IS ONCE SOCIETY GETS USED
TO A LOW BIRTH RATE, IT GETS USED TO A LOW BIRTH RATE. PEOPLE HAVE JUST ONE OR TWO KIDS
OR MAYBE JUST A DOG. CHINA'S FERTILITY RATE IS NOT
GOING TO GO UP -- OR NOT UP
MUCH. IT'S GOING TO START LOSING
POPULATION IN THE NEXT DECADE. IN FACT, THE KIND OF
CONSEQUENCES, ECONOMIC AND
GEOPOLITICAL OF CHINESE POPULATION DECLINE ARE SOMETHING
WE HAVEN'T THOUGHT ABOUT AND
NEED TO THINK ABOUT. CHINA DOESN'T ACCEPT IMMIGRANTS. EASTERN ASIAN COUNTRIES DON'T
ACCEPT IMMIGRANTS. IN EASTERN EUROPE, THERE ARE
INCREASINGLY COUNTRIES THAT SAY
DON'T TELL US ABOUT THE NUMBERS, DON'T SHOW US THE REPORTS, WE
JUST WANT TO BE HUNGARIANS
LIVING IN HUNGARY AND KEEP THE FOREIGNERS OUT. THAT ATTITUDE IS NOT ENDEMICALLY
RACIST, IT IS JUST VERY
CULTURALLY EXCLUSIONARY. IF YOU HAVE THAT ATTITUDE,
THINGS AREN'T GOING TO GO WELL
FOR YOU IN THAT CENTURY. >> Steve: DO THEY NOT
UNDERSTAND THAT THAT IS POSSIBLY
A DEATH SENTENCE? >> Darrell Bricker: THEY
UNDERSTAND IT. I THINK THEY DO. THEY JUST DON'T CARE. THEY WOULD RATHER SHRINK AND BE
UNITED THAN EXPAND AND BE
DIVIDED. >> Steve: HMM. IF CHINA BECOMES MORE LIKE
JAPAN, AND I GUESS PART OF THE
ISSUE HERE IS, BECAUSE OF THE ONE CHINA POLICY, YOU HAVE MANY
MORE MEN THAN WOMEN. SO YOU HAVE MANY FEWER WOMEN TO
HAVE THESE BABIES. >> 60 MILLION. >> Steve: 60 MILLION MORE MEN
THAN WOMEN? 60 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, WHAT
DOES CHINA THEREFORE LOOK LIKE? >> IT'S A REAL MESS. THE REASON IS YOU'RE GOING TO
HAVE A LOT OF FRUSTRATED MEN WHO
ARE NEVER GOING TO BE ABLE TO FULFIL WHAT ONE OF THEIR
CULTURAL DESTINIES IS, WHICH IS
TO CREATE A FAMILY, NOR BE ABLE TO TAKE CARE OF THEIR PARENTS
BECAUSE THEY DON'T REALLY HAVE A
STATE WELFARE SYSTEM THERE. SO IT'S GOING TO BE AN EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT PROBLEM. I ACTUALLY LIKE THE WAY THE
ECONOMIST PUT THIS, WHICH IS
CHINA IS GOING TO GET OLD BEFORE IT GETS RICH ENOUGH TO BE OLD. >> Steve: IT'S GOING TO BE OLD
BEFORE IT'S RICH ENOUGH TO BE
OLD. INTERESTING. INDIA, AGAIN, THE CONVENTIONAL
WISDOM ON INDIA IS THAT WOMEN
THERE ARE HAVING LOTS AND LOTS OF BABIES. >> ALL WRONG. >> Steve: APPARENTLY YOU
REPORTED IT'S 2.4 BIRTHS PER
WOMAN WHICH IS ABOVE THE REPLACEMENT RATE BUT NOT VERY
MUCH. JOHN, THE UNITED NATIONS
PREDICTS THEIR POPULATION WILL
PEAK IN THE YEAR 2060 AT 1.7 BILLION, UP FROM 1.3 BILLION
TODAY. DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT
PREDICTION? >> John Ibbitson: NO, WE
DON'T, AND BY THE WAY, OUR BOOK
IS WRONG. WE MIGHT AS WELL JUST GET IT OUT
THERE RIGHT NOW. IN THE BOOK WE SAY THAT THE
FERTILITY RATE OF INDIA IS 2.4
BIRTHS PER WOMAN, WHICH IS A MODESTLY INCREASING POPULATION,
BUT WHEN YOU'VE GOT AS MANY
PEOPLE AS INDIA, THAT'S A LOT OF GROWTH. BUT THE LANCET PUBLISHED A
REPORT IN NOVEMBER, SPONSORED BY
THE BILL AND MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION, LITERALLY WITH
DOZENS OF RESEARCHERS FROM
AROUND THE WORLD, ALMOST ALL THE DATA IN THE LANCET IS DIFFERENT
FROM THE DATA IN OUR BOOK AND
IT'S ALL LOWER THAN IT IS IN OUR BOOK, AND ONE OF THE PIECES OF
DATA IN OUR BOOK, IT REPORTS
THAT INDIA IS NOW 2.1. >> Steve: SO IT'S WORSE,
ACTUALLY. >> INDIA IS AT REPLACEMENT RATE. >> Darrell Bricker: THE
INTERESTING THING WAS, I WAS IN
INDIA DURING THE RESEARCH FOR THE BOOK. INDIAN DEMOGRAPHERS WERE TELLING
ME THAT BUT THE U.N. STILL HAD
INDIA AT 2.1. >> Steve: 2.4. WHY DOES THE U.N. INSIST ON
PUTTING OUT INFORMATION THAT
SEEMS TO BE INCORRECT. >> Darrell Bricker: BECAUSE
THEY HAVE AN EXTREMELY
CONSERVATIVE VIEW OF POPULATION MODELLING, AND THAT EXTREMELY
CONSERVATIVE VIEW SAYS THAT, IF
IT DIDN'T HAPPEN BEFORE, IT WON'T HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE. IT'S ALL BASED ON PAST ESTIMATES
AND WHAT'S HAPPENED IN COUNTRIES
PREVIOUSLY. SO IF CULTURAL CHANGE IS
HAPPENING TO THE DEGREE THAT
JOHN AND I ARE TALKING ABOUT, WHICH IS THROUGH THE PROCESS OF
URBANIZATION, THROUGH THE
PROCESS OF WOMEN CHANGING THEIR LIVES, AND IT'S ALL HAPPENING IN
FRONT OF YOU, THEIR MODELS CAN'T
TAKE IT INTO ACCOUNT. BUT I THINK WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO
SEE FROM THE U.N. PROGRESSIVELY,
AS WE GO THROUGH THIS NEXT DECADE, IS THEY'RE GOING TO
CONTINUE TO ADJUST THEIR
ESTIMATES DOWN. THEY'VE ADJUSTED INDIA DOWN FROM
2.4 TO 2.3. >> Steve: I DON'T WANT TO
ASCRIBE MOTIVE HERE. THE UNITED NATIONS GETS MONEY
FROM COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD
TO DEAL WITH POPULATION ISSUES. IF THE NOTION OF POPULATION
CEASES TO BE AN ISSUE, ARE THEY
WORRIED ABOUT NOT HAVING THEIR BREAD BUTTERED ANYMORE? >> John Ibbitson: WE DON'T
WANT TO ASCRIBE MOTIVE EITHER. >> YOU TAKE A LOOK AT IT AND SAY
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES HAVE
WORKED FOR YOU IN THE PAST. I ACTUALLY -- YOU CAN PUT IT
DOWN TO POLITICAL MOTIVES. I PUT IT DOWN TO STATISTICS,
ACTUALLY. >> Steve: LET'S CONTINUE OUR
TRIP AROUND THE WORLD. NOW WE'RE GOING TO GO TO BRAZIL. BRAZIL WHERE, AGAIN, ONE WOULD
ASSUME, A FERTILITY RATE THAT
WOULD BE VERY HIGH. YOU'VE GOT IT AT 1.8 BIRTHS PER
WOMAN, WHICH CLEARLY IS NOT
REPLACEMENT. WHAT IS THE MYSTERY OF THEIR
FERTILITY RATE? >> John Ibbitson: FOR ME THIS
WAS JUST THE MOST FASCINATING
THING ABOUT THE BOOK IN TERMS OF DISCOVERIES. WE COULDN'T FIGURE THIS OUT. 1.8. IT IS A POOR SOCIETY. IT IS A SOCIETY WHERE MACHISMO. ESPECIALLY WOMEN IN FAVELAS, IN
THE POOR PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WOMEN HAVE BABIES EARLY IN
BRAZIL, WHICH MEANS THEY SHOULD
HAVE THEM OFTEN. AND YET 1.8. I WENT TO SAO PAOLO, TALKED TO
UNIVERSITY STUDENTS, WENT INTO A
FAVELA. TWO THINGS WE DISCOVERED. THIS IS WELL-DOCUMENTED. ONE IS, THEY'VE ELECTRIFIED THE
FAVELAS. AS A RESULT OF ELECTRIFICATION,
THERE ARE TELEVISIONS IN THE
FAVELAS. ENOUGH FOR PEOPLE TO GATHER
AROUND. WHAT DO WOMEN GATHER AROUND AND
WATCH? THEY WATCH THE SOAP OPERAS, THE
BRAZILIAN SOAP OPERAS. TELENOVELLAS IN THE FAVELAS. THEY FIND WEALTHY, SOPHISTICATED
WOMEN LIVING EXTREMELY
UNCONVENTIONAL LIVES AND NOT HAVING CHILDREN, AND IT
PRODUCES -- WE WANT TO BE LIKE
THEM EFFECT. SECONDLY, THERE'S PUBLIC HEALTH
CARE IN BRAZIL, BUT IT'S NOT
VERY GOOD. WHEN A WOMAN WISHES HERSELF TO
STOP HAVING KIDS -- THE GUYS
COMING HOME ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS, BUT
SHE NO LONGER WANTS KIDS. SHE GOES TO THE DOCTOR AND THE
DOCTOR SAYS, AND AGAIN THIS IS
VERY WELL-DOCUMENTED, I CAN DECLARE YOU HAVE A PROBLEM
PREGNANCY. AS A RESULT OF HAVING THAT RISK
BIRTH, WE CAN PERFORM A
CAESAREAN SECTION. I WILL GET MORE MONEY, AS THE
DOCTOR, AND WHILE IN THERE, I'LL
DO A TUBAL LIGATION. IT'S CALLED SHUTTING DOWN THE
FACTORY. AND STERILIZATION HAS BECOME ONE
OF THE MOST PROMINENT MEANS OF
BIRTH CONTROL IN BRAZIL. FOR ME IN TERMS OF THE
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF
PUBLIC POLICY, THAT'S GOT TO WIN A PRIZE. >> Darrell Bricker: BY THE
WAY, IT'S THE SAME IN INDIA. THEY HAVE THE HIGHEST RATE OF
STERILIZATION OF ANY COUNTRY IN
THE WORLD. EVEN IF THEY WANTED TO TURN IT
AROUND --
>> Steve: THEY CAN'T. >> Darrell Bricker: -- THEY
CAN'T. THIS IS THE SHOCKING THING ABOUT
INDIA. WE DO SEE IT IN CHINA. EVERYBODY SEEMS TO ACKNOWLEDGE
THAT THERE'S A DEFICIT OF WOMEN
IN CHINA. IT'S THE SAME SIZE DEFICIT IN
INDIA. SAME KIND OF CULTURAL EXCLUSION
OF FEMALE CHILDREN. >> WE'RE HAVING MORE MEN THAN
WOMEN BECAUSE THEY ARE DECIDING
TO HAVE ABORTIONS UNTIL THEY GET A BOY. >> Steve: CONTINUING OUR LOOK
AROUND THE WORLD. LET'S GO TO AFRICA. KENYA. BIG BIRTH RATE STILL IN KENYA,
YES? >> NO. >> Steve: NOT EVEN IN KENYA. >> KENYA HAS GONE THROUGH AN
AMAZING TRANSFORMATION OVER THE
SPACE OF THE LAST 25 YEARS. SO EVEN IN THE LAST DECADE,
KENYA HAS GONE FROM A BIRTH RATE
OF ROUGHLY AROUND FIVE TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THREE AND
FOUR. IT'S LOST A WHOLE KID IN A
DECADE. AND IT REALLY IS A PRODUCT OF
TWO THINGS: ONE OF THEM IS
MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF URBANIZATION. SLOWER THAN IT'S HAPPENED IN
OTHER PLACES, BUT THEY'RE NOW
GOING THROUGH THE SAME THINGS THAT BRAZIL HAS GONE THROUGH AND
OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE GONE
THROUGH, AND ALSO EDUCATION AND THE INFLUENCE OF EDUCATION. THERE HAS BEEN A BIG PUSH ON
PUBLIC EDUCATION IN KENYA. NOW GIRLS AND BOYS IN HIGH
SCHOOL SIT THE SAME EXAMS. GIRLS TEND TO DO ABOUT THE
SAME -- A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN
THE BOYS, BUT THE ACTUAL PROPORTION PARTICIPATING IS
ACTUALLY ALMOST UNIVERSAL NOW. SO THE EFFECTS OF EDUCATION THAT
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT ARE
FINDING THEIR WAY DEEPLY INTO KENYAN CULTURE AND IT'S HAVING A
BIG IMPACT ON THEIR FERTILITY. >> Steve: BACK TO NORTH
AMERICA. IN FACT, AMERICA. AND YOU WRITE: >> Steve: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN,
JOHN? >> John Ibbitson: IT MEANS
THAT THE AMERICANS WELCOME
IMMIGRANTS, OR AT LEAST THEY USED TO. AMERICANS ONLY BRING IN
IMMIGRANTS AT ABOUT ONE-THIRD
THE RATE OF CANADA ON A PER CAPITA BASIS, BUT THEY STILL
BRING IN A MILLION PEOPLE A
YEAR, AND THAT'S A LOT. AND THEY HAVE A HUGE ADVANTAGE
IN THAT NOT JUST ECONOMICALLY
POWERFUL BUT CULTURALLY POWERFUL. PEOPLE WANT TO COME TO THE
UNITED STATES. ALSO THE WEATHER'S GOOD IN MOST
PARTS OF IT. SO THE UNITED STATES WILL BE THE
ONLY ONE OF THE SUPER POWERS
THAT CONTINUES TO GROW ITS POPULATION, IF IT CHOOSES TO, IN
THIS CENTURY. YOU COULD HAVE -- THIS IS ONLY
ONE VARIABLE, BUT IT'S A
REASONABLE VARIABLE -- YOU COULD HAVE A UNITED STATES THAT IS
APPROACHING 500 MILLION PEOPLE
BY THE END OF THE CENTURY, AND A CHINA THAT'S DOWN BETWEEN
600 MILLION AND 700 MILLION
PEOPLE BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. HOW WOULD THAT CHANGE THE
GEOPOLITICAL NATURE OF THE WORLD
IN WHICH CHINA DIDN'T HAVE THAT MANY MORE PEOPLE THAN THE UNITED
STATES? SO IT REALLY COULD BE A SECOND
AMERICAN CENTURY. BUT THEY HAVE TO DECIDE IF THEY
WANT TO CLOSE THEIR BORDERS AND
SHUT THEMSELVES OFF AND COMMIT THE SAME KIND OF DEMOGRAPHIC
SUICIDE THAT EUROPE AND PARTS OF
ASIA ARE COMMITTING, BECAUSE THAT COULD ULTIMATELY BE THE
ULTIMATE AND MOST BALEFUL LEGACY
OF DONALD TRUMP. >> Steve: THE ONE-CHILD
POLICY, WHICH HAS BEEN SO BAD
FOR CHINA, THE EQUIVALENT OF THAT IN THE UNITED STATES COULD
BE ITS INCREASINGLY RESTRICTIVE
IMMIGRATION AND REFUGEE POLICIES; IS THAT RIGHT? >> Darrell Bricker: EXACTLY. THIS IS ONE OF THE ADVANTAGES
CANADA HAS. THERE ARE ESTIMATES THAT NOW
SHOW THAT CANADA COULD HAVE THE
SAME SIZE POPULATION, FOR EXAMPLE, AS GERMANY BY THE END
OF THE CENTURY. I MEAN, WE'RE --
>> Steve: CLOSING UP ON
100 MILLION. >> WE'RE GROWING RAPIDLY. ALMOST ALL OF OUR POPULATION
GROWTH NOW COMES FROM TWO
SOURCES: IMMIGRATION AND AGING. SO WE'RE REALLY GOOD AT KEEPING
PEOPLE ALIVE. WE'RE REALLY BAD AT MAKING NEW
PEOPLE. 1.6. >> Steve: 1.6 IS THE CANADIAN
FERTILITY RATE RIGHT NOW, 1.6
KIDS PER WOMAN. >> John Ibbitson: BY THE WAY
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT SURPRISED
ME IN THE BOOK, INDIGENOUS FERTILITY RATES. THE EVERYONE KNOWS ARGUMENT --
THERE'S A VERY HIGH BIRTH RATE
AMONG INDIGENOUS CANADIANS AND THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE GOING TO
BECOME A LARGER AND LARGER
PORTION OF OUR SOCIETY. THE FERTILITY RATE AMONG
INDIGENOUS CANADIANS IS 2.5. IT IS FALLING RAPIDLY. THIS IS THE LAST LARGE
GENERATION OF INDIGENOUS YOUNG. AND THIS IS HAPPENING NOT JUST
IN CANADA BUT IN THE UNITED
STATES AND NEW ZEALAND AND AUSTRALIA. INDIGENOUS FERTILITY RATES ARE
GOING DOWN, JUST AS THEY ARE
GOING DOWN EVERYWHERE ELSE, AND WHY WOULDN'T THEY? >> Steve: IF WE SEE A WORLD 50
YEARS FROM NOW -- 50 TO 100
YEARS FROM NOW, WHERE THE REST OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION IS
SHRINKING BUT OURS IS
INCREASING, HOW DOES THAT CHANGE THE -- HOW DOES THAT CHANGE
POTENTIALLY CANADA'S PLACE IN
THE WORLD 50 TO 100 YEARS FROM NOW? >> Darrell Bricker: ALL THOSE
ASPIRATIONS WE HAVE ABOUT BEING
A COUNTRY THAT PUNCHES ABOVE ITS WEIGHT, WELL, WE'LL ACTUALLY
HAVE WEIGHT. I THINK WE'LL BECOME A MORE
SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN THE WORLD. BUT THE OTHER THING IS I THINK
WE'LL BECOME A SIGNIFICANT
EXAMPLE. IF A COUNTRY WANTS TO BE ABLE TO
DEAL WITH THIS POPULATION
PROBLEM THAT THEY HAVE, WHICH IS A PROBLEM NOT OF OVERPOPULATION
BUT OF UNDERPOPULATION, CANADA
IS A PLACE THAT YOU CAN LOOK AS TO HOW YOU CAN DEAL WITH THAT. AND A LOT OF THAT HAS TO DO WITH
BUILDING THE TYPE OF IMMIGRATION
POLICY THAT PEOPLE CAN ACCEPT IN THE COUNTRY, BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT
JUST GOING TO DO THAT OUT OF THE
GOODNESS OF THEIR HEARTS, AND ALSO CREATE A TYPE OF CULTURE
THROUGH MULTICULTURALISM THAT'S
TOLERANT ENOUGH THAT YOU CAN ABSORB THIS TYPE OF CULTURAL
CHANGE THAT COMES IN THROUGH THE
PROCESS OF IMMIGRATION. SO WE'RE I THINK -- ONE OF THE
THINGS WE SAY IN THE BOOK IS
WE'RE AN EXAMPLE OF HOW A COUNTRY CAN DEAL WITH THIS
PROBLEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTURY. >> Steve: WELL, LET'S SEE. BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE TO TELL THE
TWO OF YOU, AS WE GO CLOSER
TOWARDS OCTOBER AND A FEDERAL ELECTION, YOU WILL BE WRITING
ABOUT AND YOU WILL BE SURVEYING
PUBLIC OPINION ABOUT, WHAT PEOPLE THINK ON A VARIETY OF
TOPICS, INCLUDING IMMIGRATION. IF YOU WERE A CENTRE-LEFT PARTY
IN CANADA TRYING TO CONVINCE
PEOPLE OF THE GOOD THINGS ABOUT IMMIGRATION, OR IF YOU WERE A
MORE CONSERVATIVE PARTY THAT
BELIEVED IN IMMIGRATION, WHAT'S THE CASE THAT YOU WANT TO BE
MAKING RIGHT NOW IN THE LEADUP
TO A FEDERAL ELECTION? >> John Ibbitson: LET'S MAKE
THE CENTRE-RIGHT CASE BECAUSE
THE CENTRE-LEFT CASE IS OBVIOUS. BUT THE CENTRE-RIGHT CASE IS IN
FACT THE CANADIAN CASE. THIS COUNTRY HAS PURSUED, SINCE
THE LATE 1800s, AN UTTERLY
SELFISH POLICY OF BRINGING IN IMMIGRANTS TO GROW OUR ECONOMY. IT WAS HARDER TO CONVINCE PEOPLE
TO COME TO CANADA THAN TO COME
TO THE UNITED STATES, SO WE HAD TO REALLY GO OUT AND BEAT THE
BUSHES. THE IMMIGRATION MINISTER SENT
AGENTS OUT INTO UKRAINE AND
POLAND AND OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN EUROPE AND SAID COME TO
CANADA. IT'S NOT AS BAD AS YOU THINK. SO WE HAVE ENTRENCHED IN OUR
ETHOS, AND YOU SAW THIS IN THE
STEPHEN HARPER GOVERNMENT, WHICH INCREASED IMMIGRATION LEVELS,
REFORMED THE IMMIGRATION SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT ITS DECADE IN POWER, THE ETHOS THAT, YES, WE SHOULD
BRING IN SOME REFUGEES, BECAUSE
WE'RE A COMPASSIONATE COUNTRY AND PEOPLE ARE IN TROUBLE AROUND
THE WORLD, BUT MOSTLY WE SHOULD
STRIP THE BRIGHTEST AND BEST OUT OF OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
AND BRING THEM HERE TO GROW OUR
OWN ECONOMY AND OUR OWN SOCIETY. I MEAN, YOU CAN DEBATE WHETHER
IT'S ETHICAL TO DO SUCH A THING. BUT WE DO IT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE CURRENT
SYSTEM FOR FOREIGN STUDENTS,
WE'VE I THINK QUADRUPLED THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN STUDENTS IN
OUR UNIVERSITIES AND COLLEGES
NOW. THEY ARE ENTITLED AUTOMATICALLY
TO A WORK PERMIT AS SOON AS THEY
GRADUATE, AND THEY ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED FROM A RESIDENCE
STATUS IF THEY WANT IT. BECAUSE WE KNOW THEY'RE GOING TO
MAKE GREAT CANADIAN CITIZENS. THAT IS A TERRIFIC,
SELF-INTERESTED, CAPITALIST
RIGHT-WING ARGUMENT FOR NUMBERS OF IMMIGRANTS. >> Steve: DO YOU SEE ANY
RIGHT-WING PARTY MAKING THAT
ARGUMENT IN THE NEXT ELECTION? >> THE COUNTER ARGUMENT IS WE
NEED TO PRESERVE CANADIAN
CULTURE AND CANADIAN IDENTITY, THEY'RE STEALING OUR JOBS,
THEY'RE TAKING OUR WEALTH FROM
US. THAT ARGUMENT IS NOT GOING TO
PLAY, AS YOU WELL KNOW, STEVE,
IN THE RIDINGS AROUND THE BIG CITIES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY
THAT ARE FULL OF IMMIGRANTS AND
ELECT THE GOVERNMENT. >> Darrell Bricker: WE WROTE
ANOTHER BOOK ABOUT THAT AS
WELL -- >> Steve: YOU GENTS MIGHT HAVE
BEEN ON THIS SHOW ON THAT ONE
TOO. I'LL GET YOU TO COMMENT ON THIS. THIS EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK
"EMPTY PLANET." >> Steve: AGAIN, THIS GOES
AGAINST ALL THE CONVENTIONAL
WISDOM AND SO MUCH OF THE NOISE THAT WE HEAR ON MEDIA NOWADAYS. BUT DO YOU SEE A FUTURE,
DARRELL, FOR CANADA, WHERE WE
SIMPLY WON'T BE ABLE TO GROW BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A SHORTAGE
OF MIGRANTS. >> Darrell Bricker: THAT'S WHY
I REFER TO IT AS A SHORT TO
MEDIUM-TERM SOLUTION TO THIS ISSUE, IF YOU SEE IT AS A
PROBLEM. THE REASON IS, BECAUSE THE
PLACES THAT WE BRING MOST OF OUR
IMMIGRANTS IN FROM ARE MOSTLY PACIFIC NATIONS, SO THE NUMBER
ONE SOURCE OF IMMIGRANTS TO
CANADA THIS DAY HAS CHANGED FROM THE PHILIPPINES TO INDIA AGAIN. IT'S BACK UP TO INDIA. THE PHILIPPINES AND CHINA. ALL OF THOSE PLACES ARE GOING
THROUGH THIS POPULATION
TRANSFORMATION THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AND THEY'RE
RUNNING OUT OF YOUNG PEOPLE TO
SEND US, AND AS THEY BECOME MORE MIDDLE CLASS, AS THEIR ECONOMIES
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP, BECAUSE THE
BIGGEST GROWTH OF MIDDLE CLASS PEOPLE NOW IS IN ASIA, AS THAT
HAPPENS THE INCENTIVE FOR THEM
TO LEAVE ISN'T GOING TO BE AS BIG. THERE'S ACTUALLY GOING TO BE A
COMPETITION FOR IMMIGRANTS. WHERE THINGS ARE GOING TO FOCUS
IS THEY'RE GOING TO MOVE TO
AFRICA. THE QUESTION IS ARE THEY GOING
TO BECOME A MIDDLE CLASS AREA,
ARE THEY GOING TO GO THROUGH POPULATION CHANGE QUICKER THAN
ASIA HAS GONE THROUGH IT TO
DEPRIVE US OF PEOPLE TO BRING IN. >> Steve: WHAT THE PREMISE OF
THE BOOK SAYS, WELL, THAT CAN'T
BE TRUE. YOU ARE STILL SPITTING INTO THE
WIND FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THIS
COUNTRY AND AROUND THE WORLD WHO JUST SIMPLY DON'T BELIEVE EVEN
THE EMPIRICALLY PROVEABLE FACTS
WHICH YOU HAVE IN THIS BOOK. WHAT DO YOU SAY ABOUT THAT? >> John Ibbitson: I THINK WE
JUST WANT TO GET THE IDEA OUT
THERE. I THINK IT IS REASONABLE TO READ
"EMPTY PLANET" AND AT THE END OF
IT GO, "ALL RIGHT, THEY'VE MADE THEIR CASE." LET'S AT LEAST GET A DEBATE
STARTED. LET'S GET CREDIBLE VOICES
DISCUSSING POPULATION PROSPECTS. LET'S LOOK AT THE IMPLICATIONS
OF URBANIZATION FOR FERTILITY
RATES. WE INTERVIEWED THE DIRECTOR OF
THE UNITED NATIONS POPULATION
DIVISION. HE'S FULLY REPRESENTED AND HIS
VIEWS ARE FULLY REPRESENTED IN
THE BOOK. SO LET'S GET THE CONVERSATION
GOING. BECAUSE THERE ARE BIG
ENVIRONMENTAL -- ALL GOOD, BY
THE WAY -- GREAT ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES IF OUR NUMBERS
DON'T GET PAST 9 BILLION. THERE ARE SERIOUS ECONOMIC
CONSEQUENCES. THERE ARE INTRIGUING
GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES. AND WE CAN'T EVEN LOOK AT THOSE
CONSEQUENCES UNTIL AND UNLESS WE
AT LEAST START TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS SCENARIO
MAY BE THE ONE THAT PLAYS OUT,
NOT THE CONVENTIONAL ONE. >> Steve: WELL, WE ARE HAPPY
TO HELP KICK-START THAT
DISCUSSION HERE ON TVO. I MUST SAY, JOHN, DARRELL, I
READ THE BOOK -- I THINK I READ
THE BOOK PRETTY CAREFULLY. I'M NOT SURE I SAW JOHN'S
FAVOURITE WORD IN THE ENGLISH
LANGUAGE IN THIS BOOK, WHICH YOU USE IN EVERY OTHER BOOK AND IN
EVERY OTHER INTERVIEW YOU'VE
DONE ON TVO. DO YOU KNOW THE WORD I'M TALKING
ABOUT? >> John Ibbitson: NO. >> Steve: HE USED TO PLAY FOR
THE RAPTORS, ACTUALLY. BOSH. DO YOU USE THE WORD BOSH IN THIS
BOOK? >> Darrell Bricker: OUR EDITOR
MIGHT HAVE STABBED IT. >> Steve: YOUR TRACK RECORD --
YOUR DEAD TO ME. THAT'S JOHN IBBITSON AND DARRELL
BRICKER WITH A PROVOCATIVE NEW
BOOK, "EMPTY PLANET: THE SHOCK OF GLOBAL POPULATION DECLINE,"
AND WE'RE DELIGHTED IT'S BROUGHT
YOU TO OUR STUDIOS TONIGHT. >> THANKS, STEVE.
