The World Is Changing Fast! Do This Now To Prepare - Neil Howe

what do you think the experience is going to be for our younger generation of this fourth try for all the Millennials out there you know for people who were born in the in the 80s or 90s um this is this is going to be your chance to remake the world what do you say about a speaker he is uh an historian uh a demographic expert a long-term fiscal policy expert uh the smartest organizations around the world listen to what this man says for myself I can remember uh I think there might be a couple here that have been here that long I remember Neil being in an event as a trador in 1998 when Tony came out on stage and said oh my gosh oh my gosh oh my gosh I have to tell you about this book that I just read um and I haven't yet um um digested at all but it's going to change my life it's going to change your life anyway on a little rant for 45 minutes about this book called The for training and uh I was blessed enough to be in that room we know what a great guiding force in his life uh your work has been for so long um we're so ever grateful to have you here talk about this amazing new book that obviously is out 4:30 is here we've been talking about for a little while uh chapter one is going to smack you in the face winter is here that's chapter one ladies and gentlemen so can we just not delay this process anymore and and um with great Fan Fair uh welcome uh one of the most brilliant people of our time uh the author of that book and many many books before that I'm sure you guys are with these word but please give it up for the one of only me have it's been uh 25 26 years uh since uh uh Tony bought that original book uh in 1997 and uh he did um he did some work even earlier in the 90s after our first book called Generations it came out in 1991 one of his you know power tapes power lectures that he did I think back in the early 90s anyway it's been a long time we're all older now you know we're all kind of in our own new phase of life and and that's a good segue actually in the generations uh and history and sou you know we we all go through phes of wife uh we we grow up as kids we come of age into some sort of adulthood uh we still have a lot of learning to do as young adults and then we get older um and we all have our own phases as we move through our own lives one thing that I try to show uh both in the original book and in this one is that Society also goes through basis right there's such a thing as a life cycle for society right uh and we all go through and Society itself has its has its spring summer winter and Autumn and I think one thing that's fascinating and I do reflect on that in in this book is what makes history so interesting and actually what pushes it Forward uh is the intersection between the seasons of our own life and the seasons of History itself uh because that's what shapes us and uh young and that's what later on stages our interaction as parents and leaders as we shape history uh and most of the people in this audience know it or not are shaping history I mean you guys are all out there making decisions which affect where the country's going um and and a lot of those decisions you make your lifestyle all those decisions in your businesses in your families as public leaders in your communities that are actually shaping where this country is going is a dim reflection of the lessons you learned as children and coming of age and that is why Generations mattered because each generation learns somewhat different lessons from its own childhood different Generations have different childhoods that reflect their own uh age location in history and um and and that kind of is a good stage you know for for I think you know what we talked about last year um uh in Florida and uh and what we talk about you know what we talk about now obviously in this new book we cover a lot of new gra uh that we didn't in the original um we look a lot more closely you know back when Bill and I wrote for turning the idea of a crisis era of the winter season history was still way out there right I mean that was a prediction of something was going to start in the in the in you know maybe the late teens go through the 2020s and so on uh now we're we're in it we're here right and now we look at it up close and a lot of what we do in this book is look closely at earlier for turnings and look at and give them kind of a taxonomy a chronology what are the patterns what usually proceeds a for turning we you know we talk about forerunners we talk about you know what happened with the with 911 and the uh you know the Iraq Afghanistan words you know before the have seen finally hit 2008 we talk about World War I you know before the Great Depression hit we talk about the Mexican-American War before the Civil warheit and then we talk about the Catalyst itself how do we actually enter the fort turning the last two for turnings the entry was a global economic crisis um a collapse in financial markets uh which had worldwide implications of course that was black Thursday in in 1929 uh which just impacted to the old world America especially and more recently it was 2008 with the global financial crisis uh that's the that's the Catalyst and then we talk about the regeneracomsports we feel um AGN phobia we're out there there no boundaries there no limits we don't know where anything's going to go we all feel helpless how are we re going to reorganize our public lives and so we start refining ourselves as members of small platoons at first and then we started joining these larger tribal communities um well we saw that in the 1930s new jate tribal you know we had different points of view about where America should go to uh to people on one side uh the 1930s with a red decade you know that was a people people who believed in that thought of the president as as uh Franklin stalino Roosevelt that was his name right uh people the left saw that as a fascist decade I mean democracies around the world were fallowing to fascist Str James that was another part of what was going on back then um uh we saw this same thing obviously you know the 1850s going into Civil War we saw the same thing during the American Revolution you were either a Tory or a patriot you know if you're were on the wrong side you got T and feather right so we're in we moved into that era um and suddenly the stakes are higher and higher we realize that the vacuum is at the highest level now you know we feel we feel pretty settled in our own family lives our own immediate Community Liv we have no idea where nation is going any long right and that becomes that leads into the crisis and talk about that in the book that is the the um the uh the the final uh regeneracomsports long time fall apart as the country right we either win or we Surly lose and well we all know when that happened in the 30s that actually didn't occur until Pearl ARB and it really occurred after the fall of France and talk about that suddenly America begins to mobilize we all know when that happened in Civil War and you go back and look at these earlier events we finally realize that this was really big this was going to settle things not only for our own lifetimes but the lifetimes of our family um and that's still in our future and then finally we move toward what I call the ecosis and the climax and the climax is when the Final Act the decision that decides it all one way or the other and then we finally move to the resolution we spent a fair amount of time in this butt too not just talking about climbing of the crisis but what's the what's the spring going to be like what if we move ahead to the mid 20 theories what's it going to be like for our kids what can I do ER up and I think that might come as a surprised to a lot of people because we we have a I I wrote a rather long section on that because they described the period in which uh big institutions actually work again there a new sense of enity a new sense of public trust um uh we have a great sense of belonging uh individualist and um I'm sure a lot of lot of exors out there I spent a l time being pretty radical individualist right I get to feel a little bit out of place right suddenly here's this word in which everyone wants to fit in well that's going to be really a challenge right for just lifelong countered bias always going on your own taking care of ourselves you know can't trust anybody and now you're in a society where everyone needs to trust other and people have brought up the trust um that's going to be to a lot of people uh particularly Those Who Bore most of the Run of get through the crisis that's going to seem like a new golden age and that's very much how we finally broke out of the last 4:30 you know going into uh the the you know kind of what we call the American High the the uh the uh the uh you know the the good times right uh this was the presidencies of Truman and Eisenhower and John Kennedy um really the period between the E day and BJ day and Kennedy's assassination and that was a new phase of life right uh but we had the same thing after the Civil War after new American Revolution we had the same thing after you know around the year 1700 uh when the colonies had this new sense of solidarity new sense of United mission of Britain and we kind of take that back we talk also I think uh a little bit about a contingency Myster you know what what what can change this pattern and and most of all what does this mean for our own lives and I I know Scott you want to come back to that but what does it mean you know what what I should do how do we participate in that and I do have a an epilog to the book and then I'll just close out my my initial comments to you SC with this I do have an epilog in by which some people will find maybe a little strange but but I talk about um I talk about nav sand paintings and I talk about uh I talk about the babad Gita and I talk about eternal lessons in how we all have roles we're not just unguided missiles out there just in a completely random mess that there is a rhythm and in nature and an order to how things play out and we do have a role we do have a script sometimes it's a personal script sometimes in the case of our generational membership it's a collective script and whether you like your generation or not you're on age or not and and very often we often detest people our own age we just think you know I'm part of the the Bulls and basan I mean just the worst possible creatures that ever came upon the scene nonetheless you're of and guess what you're faded to live the rest of your life with them couple of things I want to ask you um one is Je it's got to feel good to be so right doesn't it I mean it's got to feel good you know when I was going through the list of things that were in the early books of generations I mean that's 1991 for God's sake generations and then uh and then obviously for turity and so forth that that's got so they bet trays my own generation so I'm a former always love to be right right I ask question byon X I might something else you know that's true too true you're right I'm rich you know or something else you know can you speak to this fourth trading so the fourth training that we're in what are the characteristics and traits of this fourth tradings I mean I know we know where is but tell me what do you see uh obviously similarities are there some differences and then we might talk about what what's going to happen how a government's change and Society changes during it but what talk to this specific foring that we're in right now when we talk about a crisis era Scott we're talking about a generation long era it's kind of like talking about winter as a season there will be great days you know there will be calm days there'll be days of good weather might be weat some good weather um I think we all realize in some sense that the Year we're living in is one profoundly different than the one parents had at the same phase of life or or the era that uh we recall most of us here in this audience when we were in our 20s it's just a different era it's not just we're a different age this is a different time we're living in right our institutions aren working the same way nothing is functioning like it did um and I think there's something else and I think this is what causes profound pessimism uh about where we're living is that we see that on our current track everything is going to get worse um I mean I don't care what you name um but the the the middle classes is getting uh smaller uh the the the distances inequality between the privileged and the unprivileged is getting wider uh the the the the not just the inability but the admitted inability of Institutions to solve anything is Bec more clear uh no one actually depends on public Med look for already told people people's feeling about depending on public benefits half of all exer don't think they're going to get any Social Security I mean there's there's we feel profoundly that as time goes on nothing is holding any longer right and almost any problem you will look at we see that their leaders don't seem to be competent uh they hav they haven't a clue we don't know how to we're going to get anything done uh we seem to have ever less sense of community as I point out in the book uh half of Americans think we're on the verge of Civil War and now we look what are we in any shape to take on a foreign adversary you know you kind of add that on and you're thinking where the hell are things going and I think but the reason I say that is this is the good news of the for attorney is that the for attorney in a way when you realize that our current trajectory is hopeless that we need some huge transformation in our society to to change the trajectory that's where the for turning becomes positive and we can't go back we can't go from the 2020s you know back to the early 60s you know what I mean if you're just I'm speaking metaphorically right we can't just move back and try to change society that way history has no rewind button there are forces in history just like forces in nature which only go One Direction these are called laws of entropy these are these are baked into the laws of thermodynamics you can't take a waterfall at the bottom of a waterfall and actually wait until there's a time in which all those drops will like reather at the top of the waterfall birds don't fly backwards I mean I mean I could go through all these examples but there's so many things in history that only go in One Direction yeah and what I tell people is it is possible to recapture so much of that uh and maybe even recapture without any of the bad side of that era you know that we looked back and you look back the American eyes are a lot of things that today we we that would bother us right to live back then but we can we can enjoy the positive aspects of that era but we have to move forward to do it yeah and of course turning to ages as the only times at which we achiev those ays Asic crisis these these Golden Ages all occur after a crisis that the first golden age in history that people talk about was the age of Augustus and it followed this huge period of Civil War you know at the late Republic and that was um that was the you know that was the that was the first great golden age that you know people used to talk about but this re recurs constantly in history to um it's it's I get thealogy what you're saying and so and you talk about the book you know people do come together as a group and a community when they're not focused on self and individualism and and so forth people when they take less risks as individuals they take more risks as a group I don't like to say the question but I mean do we need a war like I mean I I I mean is that what we need to to to get us through this fourth ter I don't want to be so so pessimistic or hopeless in to say that it requires a war you but it does require a sense of total public urgency to for us in other words you need something to raise that adrenaline level and make everyone realize that we either you know as as Benjamin Franklin put it after signing the the Declaration in Independence we either all hang together or we all hang separately you know what I mean and and that's the moment you you need that it turns out war is very effective to Des got it say but you need that Prospect of Ruin if we don't act now and I think all of you realize that again in your own personal life I mean sometimes that's what it takes uh you know we used to call it scared straight you know what I mean um but but I I I I I just say historically total have always occurred in for turnings and every four turning has had a total war that's all I can it's a big S you can say that's accidental or coincidence or whatever I'm just saying that's been it but I the eternal optimist that I am I do not say it's necessary yeah and I think it's it's possible that as governments have become more sophisticated as we've moved along this linear time frame um it's possible that we could have it organized conflict that wasn't total chaos it's possible I I do reflect and in my more sober moode that if we had possessed a weapon of mass destruction uh in in 1863 yeah I I'm I guarantee you either Richmond or Washington would have been in ashes right uh and as you point out in the book every time we've had that power we've used it well in World War II we put the best and brightest young people in our country in man and private all the way to divide a weapon of mass detruction which we used immediately right as soon de developed it so look I'm very sober about that and I simply say but I think it's better to be cleare eyed you know this is the potential and we need to take it seriously um yeah that's what we're facing we we have an awesome uh trust to do the right thing to make the right decisions and obviously if you make the wrong decisions the consequences of that are are very longlasting we think about government's role right now and government changing how do you see govern I'm going to say the American government but for me it's all Western liberal democratic governments how do you see them either being forced to change or wanting to change or needing to change to to to keep us moving forward well must change I mean look we we we are all we we all believe in Earth you know we we are all we all belong to mity in that sense um and I think it doesn't necessarily mean that we are um uh that we believe in progress where that we're Christian you know or or we're Muslim or you know I mean any other religions of the book believe that that history is fundamentally about time beginning and time coming to an end and man's faith is to where word you know the fate of man kind is to constantly progress in some way and it's all going to end at some point um and there's a there's a secular version of that uh which is a Rog of progress and become ever more powerful it's kind of the hod Deus you know the the the uh the the this Ray Kurtz while you know that that transformed human we're going to download our wetwear into hardware and we're just going to live you know we're going to be immortal but that Vision uh of a kind of long-term Collective Destiny for our species or People Like Us is something that we all grown up in and I think we're used to thinking about that as our general frame of reference I think what's really interesting and what I do point out in the book is that before mity uh and this is certainly very common in primitive Societies or just simply traditional societies ancient societies you know Pagan societies polytheistic societies that they didn't really share that the ancient Greeks as brilliant as they were with Plato and Aristotle and and and and Socrates they had no concept of the of of linear progress history was simply about infinite repetition all things are a circle you know um in in in their rendering and I think what's what's really interesting about about us is that as we become more linear in our beliefs about time our social behaviors has become more cyclical and art of the book is explaining that TR do because what happens is because every generation thinks it's their mission to improve Society yeah we're always trying to correct for the excesses of the last generation and do it right this time you know uh so Bill Clinton when the Boomer comes into the White House remember in in 1992 and he says I'm going to run the most ethical Administration in history you know I mean and then so got a laughable and retrospect but the point is let just recognize that's not a new you right every new generation figured out something that no one else figured out and I'm going to do it right this and what that does is it creates a sequence of compensations and changes in Direction and before you know it we actually have an actual cycle yeah of behavior in among among leaders uh and they don't realize how they're playing out uh they they they're playing out the circle let's talk about um this current fourth training so most of us here are in a certain season of Our Lives um not all um but most um one of the things we've noticed in in Tony's audience in the last uh uh little chapter since Co is that our audience is now much much younger and so uh Tony's audience is now hugely you know under 35 years of age let's talk about uh the different generational experience of this fourth training I know that intersection is really important so we've got people here that are in that sort of you know uh season where they're sort of you know 40 to to 60 and some not there but most there what do you think the experience is going to be for current younger generation of this fourth turning it's going to be empowering ultimately and I think that's the message I would give but for all the Millennials out there you know for people who were born in the in the 80s or 90s um this is this is going to be your chance to remake the world um now like all things it's that could be prant uh your your kids will do a number on you later on and you as you recall Scott in the very last chapter I I actually alluded a little bit to the Awakening that's getting great them and it may not be pleasant for but that's after they built this new world uh so we are all within the sidey go and I think it's going to feel enormously empowering to this generation it's going to be uh a collectively of power to experience I think in that it's going to be very different than anything Gen X ever had so those of you who are Jana mostly in your 50s and 60s I'm speaking to you genx you know mostly you know um you were raised as as you know the quintessential throw away kids uh you know you had to look after yourselves everything was dangerous uh if if you know if you didn't look after yourself no one else would and and you took that into the The Fall season of History you took that really into the 80s and 90s when you were young adults and starting your careers and started building it you were all Nomads you were all out there for yourself uh you you individualized amerit uh Boomers may have sort of showed the way and broken down institutions they wouldn't work but uxers really were the ones who live that dream right all of the very individualistic and I'm just thinking of how ORD America changed when Gen X was at age you know no longer that the erra parment organization but we started talking about NRI organizations and and uh pre- agency and every everyone was hired as an individual contractant I mean exors are really used to that world uh nowhere to find benefit pensions is all find contributions and if you didn't contribute well tough Lu you know what I mean I mean everything was up to you and by the way I point out again an analogy with you with the Lost Generation the phrase it's up to you was coined in the 1920s by the the lost as young adults and uh that was the idea everything was up to you you know back in the 1920s and that's again an era a very weak government and we were a very individualistic Society Millennials are really trying to create a different world uh one which is much more Community oriented one in which institutions look after them and they contribute to the institution this is very alien the exra mind and I think that is a that is a u a generational contrast to will age as these two generations grow older and as Millennials begin to take over America uh at the peak of the of the for turning and just after the for turning that's typically when you know Millennials actually finally begin to take over be a little bit like the GI generation finally getting elected in in large elections in the 1950s and beginning to take over Congress and State houses and so on and ultimately bringing about the Society you know and and all the and The Lost Generation by that time his old people are just looking on it utterly mystified and quickly made their departure that they just didn't get it um but but we're gonna see that same contrast um FDR when he was um when he was running for his reelection is is huge re-election this was 1936 by the way when their re-election was over uh Congress typ few were than I think only about 60 or 70 Republicans all the rest were Dem something 300 and something Democrats to maybe 60 or 70 Republicans that was the Wipeout election of all time the New Deal was utterly triump and FBR in his speeches he knew this was generational he said I see I see an America of that's been corrupted by an older generation of money changers who kep them saying it's up to you it's you know every man for himself I see a new generation coming along they believe in the broad Highway where we all you know cooperate with one another and of course he was pointing to this new generation that would eventually be uh the greatest generation of World War II who would think nothing about um all joining the war you know all having that collective experience and then coming over and they would all build the Suburban hes that were all identical and they would live in gr flannel suits that were all identical and you know they had no problem with that that was how do you think that might play out now if we talk about in the beginning of our conversation talked about um the the inequality the rising economic inequality that's existing in Western societies now that hasn't existed before and you you predicting that this millennial generation will cause that to change in some way sh performs Thomas came out with his book on you know like capital and you know this that I can't remember it about six or seven years ago and he said that you know it's the nature of capitalism uh for very economic reasons that you know the richo get richer and the PO gets B you know inequality Rises but then he said of course there was a huge exception it just happened to me an exception he says it's an exception I say it's the rule because it's happened repeatedly but he says yes now where this time from the late 30s to the to the late 60s when throughout the West inequality declined a huge decline I mean if you look at almost every measure of gen Cici of income and wealth it declined it declined hugely during World War II and it declined during the 1950s and most of the 60s started Rising again at the end of the 70s and you know and that's really been the extra experience again Rising inequality and so on but but you think about it it things got much more equal during World War II and during the period after why well because government ran full employment economies we had all these new social safety nets we had higher tax rates and by the way a lot of the L generation with fortunes got wiped out during the Great Depression right I mean in other words it was create a instruction on a massive scale on a public scale on a national scale um and this new generation was was much more equal I mean just think what what what living in the suburbs meant everyone got the same home yeah and but was not just the fact of economic inequality can't measure it you know and actually number but it was the ethic of equality even people that were Rich during the 1950s kind of hid their wealth you know what I mean you didn't flaunt it like you did today and I think actually today even it's already beginning to change I think we're already begin to feel that during that the crit for turn you know to fla He Man a privilege well this know what it once was and I think Millennials feel that much more strongly than the older generation I get I get that constantly uh the word luxury up for Millennials a kind of a Shan word and I can go down longer list of those things but I think Millennials feel that you if you do have a lot of money and privilege uh you you you kind share with all your press I mean that's what you do that's that's otherwise you're really sort of ostracized how do you feel this the millennial generation is they're leading us out of the full Atty how do they deal with all those things you know I think they're Al for the ride at the like they realize they're not going to be making the big decisions as to which way it goes they're just not in the age yet I mean yeah of course they can vote but but you know the the leadership generation is all I mean typically people would be in entering positions of real leadership in late midlife and you know sort of early you know sort of that that you know another phase of life has to go by so so I think the way they see it you um I I want to vote for whichever which whichever direction gets us all on board somehow and I think for a lot of millenni didn't even matter which one it is yeah all on board going because whenever we actually have a consensus and decide to move forward in something that works and I I'm not talking about whether it's U you know overhauling Health Care in this country which obviously doesn't work uh to the Joy University system which is which is broken uh you know along with student loans and that horrible system we out for shoveling money of the universities but you you just got down the list nothing works I'm saying if if anybody just simply takes over and isn't what uh then it would be a plus and we'll go along with that because once we can start destroying some of these old institutions that how work uh that better Solutions will become obvious and this is why creative destruction is so work and this is what crisis does we only make our huge new policy Innovations SC at times of Crisis yeah and this sounds completely counterintuitive to most people if you ask people they think well gee you know the the right time to make huge changes in our institutions is on a clear sunny day you know and we're all affluent we can think about it so we never do that you look back in all of American History you look back throughout his we never do that we always make our biggest most profound decisions for the future when we're backed into our Corner we worried about our country mightbe even not last until tomorrow and I in in the book I us go through example after example about yeah and and and this is a this is a lesson so I think this is why so many uh Millennials and there one PS to back this up it's not just true in America it's around the world Millennials are actually turning on Democracy itself uh you ask Millennials they're much less likely been older generations to think democracy is a good idea and and you know you asked them why and they just said well democracy is is an excuse for older people to talk about everything and then um uh you know through through process and procedures and lawsuits and whatever never do it yeah your stats in the book they're almost aling when you're when you read the stats if democracy is a biocracy to Millennials so in other words older people sooner later always Beto everything yeah and that means that nothing changes in the old gets keep what they have right because the incumbents get to get what they have and you know and and and they get to get their benefit they get to keep right and so nothing changes and this is why uh why younger people interestingly enough uh are are actually drawn to these populist leaders and this is actually something shown by the the camber center for the study of democracy they looked around this around the world and it turns out the Millennials really AR you on I mean if you want to know uh and this is particularly clear if you look at um you know who supports uh you know bulsar or XI Jen Pang or the the Hun that's in Myanmar or or we look at look at the Philippines look at look at look at Italy under Georgia Maloney look at some of these recent elections in southern Europe uh but you see it again and again young people want a big change and I'm convinced that it's less the ideology involved and more just they win with a big change the young always wi when things change because there you are they can inherit the New Order yeah let's um talk about for my lines here on the call uh we had an event I don't know if you know that in February which it's our finance events and we had a couple of speakers come on uh who are generationally wealthy so a couple of families came and spoke that were you know 10 12 15 years into generational wealth which is an unusual thing um given that many of our lions are Building Wealth and thinking about what happens next with that wealth they've all got children that are sort of about the ages we've been talking about if you were to give people some thoughts or coaching or wisdom into how do we I don't know protect and prepare to write out this uh stormy chapter till the end of uh 2030 or 2033 how do we prepare for that uh and protect ourselves and then maybe after that how do we uh maximize or take opportunity from what's going to come like right now if I'm if I'm any of my lines I've got a big buet of money how do I protect that and prepare that for my children and what do I do with that I think there's there's some broader to and and one is um of letting your children know first of all this is just ancient advice of of what you believe in by by your example right I think kids always get that I mean if if you are managing the family's wealth and you have some real interest in life in the country and you are pursuing it in a very Earnest way and you have a vision for what this where this country out to go and you're trying to do it you know and you're trying to look at a practicable broad vision of how we move forward and involve your kids in that uh that is the huge plus you know I often I hav been meet people with a lot of wealth and they they they kind of don't really involve their kids with it right and they all been tell their kids this is what you got to do they don't live that life yourself I mean this is sort of an old story right if if you do that you you're to have problems uh but I but I do believe that you can explain to to your kids as they grow older and as they come of age get to the age where they actually can you know enter careers themselves they you see a vision from their future which includes them and includes their generation not just them as privileged people but but gives a role for their peers their friends gives a role for all of and remember that this Millennial is a collaborationist organization they're a bunch of Norm core players you know they they want to fit in with their peer group much more than ex has ever cared about their Pure or or even boers for that matter is very important to them and I think that's important uh as as kind of the first step because I think Millennials know more than anyone that the only way we get to get out of this is by being able to practice Community virtues in a much more rigorous way than we' had to practice them in the past now I hope you guys all took notes on that because that's really profound if you're looking to impact your children because our model because I we their same age is so different to theirs that because we're so self-focused because we really were that generation that was left alone and left to work it out and latch key children and and left to just you know find their own way but our children do not want that and they really do want to be included in the greater good and bring the community along and so selling a story to your children about wealth that includes their needs their desires their values their perspectives is I think is really and I I would I would say there's one of the reasons why you find so many young people with money you know often sort of requests and so on sort of generational wealth as you put it uh and I known this from all investment advising stats they're the ones B to ESG right I mean that look oh my and I got why is that because they feel guilty about their worth versus their peers and I think what I see very often for parents is the first thing they say is and and believe me I I I would leave this step next that he is James is a is a pretty stly set of criteria right I mean I've written extensively on the I I kind of know how bony it is but it'd be a simply hard on the fact that ESG has a bunch of you know stuff drained up uh you know by the Blues you know to uh to to leverage government power over our lives that's not going to make it with near your people what you really need to show them is that um there are big challenges for the next generation and I do take them seriously right and and and here's here's how I take them seriously I think why you want to re realize I guess is what I'm saying is their their passion for ESG isn't so much that they care about ESG per se they really want want to feel that they're bonding with their own peers yeah and that's kind of what I'm getting at well which is so different to our generation exactly I me they want to be part of the Big Brand Jed xers wanted to be away from the Big Brand because they were going to survive better if they weren't part of the mainstream and I and I think Millennials realize the opposite and and and one way I explain that is by saying that if you grw up in a time where big institutions seem to be working okay uh that the winning strategy is selfishness because you you do better off you know just getting for yourself and letting you know you're not worried about the community but if you come an age when the community itself seems to be in trouble yeah altruism is the best strategy and this this is the Wilson the you know Edward Wilson and his collaborator they used to put it he said he said in that among individualism selfishness is strategy but among groups altruism is the best strategy so if you're aware that you are one group of many and your entire group May perish then suddenly it's very different but you will priz and we we often wonder how the how the GI generation you know the greatest chers came out of World War II how did they become such team players how did that where did that come from you know the Jimmy Stewarts and all those be of the a Shucks kind of you know that attitude that came out of these people were B pilots and splashing a sh Tero would where did they get that well they get that because as they were coming of age a very different reality struck them that it wasn't about individuals getting ahead of each other it was the fact that their entire group was in danger and then suddenly the whole strategy changes and for the rest of their lives the GI generation always thought that altruism was the better strategy and so they were always sacrificing themselves for the government doing what the government told them to fitting in to get along right I mean but I this is one way had ads and celebrated lightness and sociability you know have the Pepsi please I don't know if you remember probably before your time and I remember those commercials have a Pepsi please you know be sociable have a Pepsi there was no appeal to doing your own thing and breaking away that all came later but here's here's the point I'm trying to make is that for that generation altruism was a winning strategy and it remain that until the day they died until finally when we had people like George Bush Senior he seemed like anti Delian like where did that come from because the nation completely moved on to a much more self-oriented ethic and so we look back upon that as like some shadow of some weird past you well history teaches it comes back right it comes let's change hats um where are we investing where are we investing geographically based on Generations if is a different in Southeast Asia is it different in the southern hemisphere is it different in Western Europe where we is it is it uh Industries we're looking for um to a a be safe and be optimized well look I mean in any gr of Crisis we expect volatility of the economy will usually speed up one thing I con to remind people is everyone aware how how serious the great crash was and how great the Great Depression was and I have an answer what was it what was the second worst economic downturn of the 20th century and no one knows what that is J Dy it's the recession of 1937 I mean it was enormous the stock party had went down by by over 50% and the GDP declin is the second largest it was a period of enormous volatility so crisis eras are one in which we can expect more volatility of the of the you know post 2007 GFC variety uh or even you know very briefly during the pandemic or sort of the post-pandemic crash that we see we're going to continue to see that and what that means is is that um uh you want to get out of you know momentum um uh High leverage High beta all of that you know this this doesn't work well and I say that because we go through these crashes of public confidence but then we also go to these periods particularly near near the uh what what we call the eiros and the Catalyst where suddenly once we decide what we want to do as a nation we're all concerted to do it you know I blame it goes to zero uh inflation takes off and suddenly even though we're we're asked to peir back on all our personal expenditures the nation as a whole wants much more almost than what we can possibly deliver even if we're all working to the same goal and really what you saw 1943 44 45 and and and and then going on through the Korean War inflation simply caused by the fact that this nation was growing so big so massive so quickly and enhancing its power to change the world so quickly we couldn't even keep up right uh with with with this this massive expansion in what we're collectively capable of doing I believe that there's tremendous untapped potential in America right that's just been compl completely caged by the fact that so many institutions don't work but but if once that's untapped that that causes the the the opposite not not the crash but the but the incredible bones to take place so but what you want to do is is get out of of of of any strategy which is a one-way strategy I I do think that uh given the the fact that we can have these enormous Falls particularly not over the economy but in any given sector once the economy starts roling uh that that that that those are the things you want to do geographically you want to diversify Scott um and you want to look at other areas of the world which are likely to be you know better R over time long term so a lot of those would be um places um uh economies in e in in Asia for example that were very strongly probably you don't want to choose economies which which could be that could be in the middle of of a geopolitical conflict so I you know I'm I'm not habitating investing in China but I think already what's doing very well are the China Alternatives right all the other countries in Southeast Asia which show don't show the same fertility decline we still have very powerful demographics going forward uh as much as the economy is malign today I like the Philippines a lot it uh it's uh it's a you know it's a it's a an angle phone country a lot of English speakers um and it's uh it's has great Workforce potential and it's going to be growing demographically through the end of the 21st century uh so it's a big player in my book I think India is is is a better horse right now uh it uh it passed China and population as many of you know in 2022 uh and it is is expected to be this the end projection by the end of by 2100 it will be twice as large as China in terms of population China will be declining rapidly that's a whole another discussion we could go into as what it's happening to Chinese birth rate and so on uh but that's an actual mess right right uh China is really imploding demographically and and obviously given the fact that globalization is now in Reverse right so global trade as a Shear Global GDP has been falling ups and downs but but ever since 2007 it's been falling and in this new age of sanctions and possibly geopolitical conflict it will fall even more is just sort of the general proposition now it might gain in specific cases we have two countries working together and trading assets but I think is the the general mood of globalization isn't usually is a hug reverse so the big multinationals are going to suffer um and I would be particularly cautious of economies which depend there's a great book out if any was interested I in this aspect I thought it was a good book it's a book by Peter zean uh who it's it's called the the the end of the world is just the beginning uh and he's a demographer but more importantly he's an expert on um on metalurgy and and sort of the U uh the sourcing of uh of of Commodities and resources around the world he points out that many of these countries around the world some of them in the mid East but many of them in the uh in the far his best single example is China uh face all kinds of bottlenecks uh tumor things that they absolutely die if they don't have starting with energy and and obviously with energy and with a lot of basic commodity inputs in their economy that that no one depends upon globalism more than China and obviously it's not doing a lot to to to to V right this seems to be a problem for China um I I think in just in terms of of asset groups uh I would I'm bullet CH of Commodities manufacturing um particularly defense as well as new materials uh and materials you know as a sector I mean if you're look at S&P sectors manufacturing materials these have been very poor sectors uh for most of the past several decades obviously we've been you know you know throughout all the 1990s after the the the fall of the Soviet defense was declining and and you know we all believed in the postmaterial universe uh in every crisis the importance of materials and reshaping the outer physical world right rebuilding the harbors and the buildings and our living structures the thing that bring us together as communities what I find very interesting in the past you know in the fall seas and the unraveling you know when we think of the 1980s 90s and and and God is that all the industries that did good were all the personal gadgets you know what I mean there were our cell phones and the flat screen TVs and the things you manufactur and they rur all over the world and we became more and more efficient at doing them but everything that was Community oriented in what we produce that is to say involves an element of sort of community cooperation and producing it actually separ negative productivity as one of the reasons why we we don't have we we just so poor eting pain grow it's not because we can't paper our walls with flat screen TVs uh or or you know new F of light bulbs and so on it's rather things like health care that's 18% of US GDP right there 18% uh education both primary secondary and University level education uh then we move on to um Housen land use development how we organiz our communities uh then we move on to things like social services and so on uh and how about Finance how do we organize Finance I think I'm up to 50% of GDP right there in healthc care I think we've had negative productivity over the past 30 years life expectancy in the United States last PE in 2014 and mortality rates were last their lowest about under n65 in 2010 and I mean that's how bad Healthcare we keep spending more and more money and people don't understand most of what influences your health it's not how much we spend on doctors and hospitals but I think somehow that that that medical industrial sector has convinced us that's true so you you need to let a doctor Hospital uh agree with his patient how to spend someone else's money but namely the federal government ensure his money and we think that's a that's a that's a great system and I think are you kidding uh but but but that's the system we're addicted to absolutely does not work and for some reason conservatives defend that it's free market or something it makes no sense to me whatsoever it's completely bankrupt uh and Americans hate it but if you want to ask most Americans and ask any Millennial in particular why living standards are no longer growing and why you are not reaching the living standard of your parents at the same age it's not because they can't buy the next cell phone it's because they aord and I just got to lose I just said they can't afford out here they can't afford a University degree and they can't afford to live anywhere I think that just covered the same thing I just talked about the industries but notice they all involve um arital world right we we have two different turning points in our in our SA we talk about this year we have a and we have two solstices right one is the summer the other is the winter you know the sun is longest the sun is shortest they they summar as The Awakening and then do they Awakening and the and the crisis is is obviously the winner well when are the great crisis well we've already been discussing them these are when we remake our out you know Civic world of Institutions uh political institutions Economic Institutions kind of the things we actually build with material and and kind of shape how we live in this world and and and this would be the period we're living in now the 1930s World War II be the Civil War be the numeric Revolution and so on there similar similar Civic crisis and periods of rebuilding way back in history but in between these we have the Awakenings and the Awakenings are when we rebuild the inner world right this is one is we come up with new values new culture new religion new perceptions just new ways of new vocabulary new ways of speaking um the last time we went in awaken in this pure was the late 60s and 70s a prophet archetype like Bloomers comes of AG during an Awakening I a will we got here archetype like the GI generation like Millennials comes of age during a crisis and one one thing about the Awakening is is an intense debate very destructive of of outer World public Creations right certainly The Awakening was I mean suddenly everyone is into you know sing their inner world you had Marland Ferguson talking about voyance to the interior uh Boomer declared the first Earth de and the first thing they did was take sledgehammers this is a big publicized National event in 1972 they took sledgehammers to a car they first of all they they declared it Fly guilty in a courtroom and they all took sledgehammers and they beat this car to pie and then they buried it so that was that that was the first dur day and a couple years after that we stopped the Apollo Moon launch program right no one wanted to go to the Moon anymore suddenly but you see my point no one want to do anything more with technology we all want to discover we all want to turn in work right and and I think the following period was one with the areas of bird how don't mean that really expanded was all in feeding our Creature Comforts and things that appealed to us as individuals what happens during the crisis is we we become really hungry for things that appeal to us as communities and Empower communities and that's what that's what Millennials are interested in I I I look at healthare and living spaces living areas as just examples of that but this is really what the crisis is all about is about ultimately it's about getting us out of our Solitude and our loneliness and rebuilding effective Community lives and and that means means that the following first turning is all about just continually building up commun the community world right I'm up on this SC when I'm talking about economic sectors is it gives you an idea what we're going to be doing in our economy right we're really going to be worried about things like housing community how do we build that how do we build transportation that really works what we really would love it to work not just the way we just happen to inherit it I mean I'm living in the same stupid kind of internal combustion engine car that I grew up in as a kid I see no progress at all people are constantly talking about the world is changing so fast my God in history is speeding up when you look at our material life our institutional life I see no change I think it's a great time if you're okay with it Neil to just open up to uh our Peeps and just see if any of you want to just take the great opportunity having front to ask a question that we got an intimate group so we can afford to be personal normally we like to ask Global questions we've also got some different geographies on our call too not everyone here is is necessarily North American so if anybody wants to ask a question if you go ahead and just you know wave your hand or whatever um I'll see you there they go they all go I'm going to start with I got to start with he's the speaker now weal Mar so I got to start with David so let's hi buddy thank you Scott thank you uh thank you Neil that was really uh really interesting thanks so much and I saw you speak at the last year at the Lions event so um I had question I'm sorry for I missed and you might have said it but um typically in a fourth turning and the best judgment you can make and where we are like sort of that's a hard question I assume but you know you might have some idea with your expertise and then also like what signs would you look for like right now you know uh like stock Market you know's going some stocks are going up a lot and uh what signs would you look for with where things might change drastically in the next year or two like how do you see like the next year or two in in this cycle I guess I don't can say it in the United States this just the huge Flash B coming up which is um uh November of 2024 right uh in fact then they got everyone in America sort of gradually their knackles are gting white was thinking about it uh uh we've got um we've got two we've got a a politically leaderless Nation uh but unbelievably we have no effort to find new leaders but these two incumbents that no one really wants there but they just feel faded they have to go with because the political system is operating no choice there tremendous dissatisfaction about it I I do think that events Could Happen very rapidly in which neither of the uh the people that are currently talking about that either either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will end up as the candidates 2024 I think that can still change very rapidly due to the fact that there's just tremendous you know uh there's absolutely no desire to have these two people running um and I think that that speaks to the the attal for for why widespread you know trauma breaking out they the underlying tensions have not gone away and if anything is is true and we saw this during the recent debt limitation debate uh there there's a there's a hardening both sides I mean no one no one talks to each other anymore and what what worries me is that any point uh one side could just decide to you know Spike the system or decide they won't cooperate um and so I I'm worried about both this something I talked about a lot in the book is is do we have to worry most about Civic conflict or Civic Discord our our system breaking down because the two sides won't cooperate or do we have to worry about geopolitical events and um I remain undivided I remain undecided because I'd hear uh you know arguments on both sides that can happen I think things are speeding up in Southeast Asia there's no question about it uh everyone I talked to uh I'm here in Washington so I speak to these guys a lot but there's no question of the National Security people National Security officials uh every went in sort of speeding up the clock and what's likely to happen on Taiwan which I think is where everyone's focused right now um and and partly because the the long-term feature is now kind of closing down for China I think when things were much more positive longer term uh China wanted to wait I mean why do anything when history is on your back right I mean the winds are your back and you can just worded I don't think there's a feeling they can afford to wait any longer particularly now the United States is beginning to fortify the second island chain as being to take steps designed to to to weaken China's economic growth so I think both things worry me a lot there is no specific timetable however I can say and something I talk about in the book in terms of years I mean you're asking for sort of a timetable oh they what we see and kind looking at the clock uh and looking at current phases of Life which are begin to lengthen somewhat as we see the likelihood of a climax is going to be at the very end of the 2020s I mean if you were ask actually ask me when it is uh and the the conclusion the resolution of the crisis being in the early 2030s we are our B against year is 2033 but that's just simply you know simply in a bell curb that's kind of the one that we think is likely as positive ability by running the numbers but I think it's it's unlikely to PE you know uh you know before 2026 that would be that would be that would be so unusual that would be almost um an an you know and it and but it but it would be also very unlikely to to to Peak and resolve you know after you know 2036 and I realize it's a long period of time you can't you can't say you're watched by that but I but I think get is specific enough to kind of show you how you should plan your life you know what I mean um thank you thank you D um Michelle let's uh jump in and say hi hi Neil hi Michelle first thing I want to say as a non English first language speaker thank you for this book I ran the first and it was so hard I bought the audio book and I had to read to kind of listen more than once it was dense and the language on this book is so crazy flows you know and and it's really fun to read like I'm getting fascinated by American history because of your book so I just wanted to share that with you because I think the world will feel like that as well now great thank you as far as question uh what was the biggest concept or pattern uh shift from the first book to this one something you believe then and you don't believe anymore that you have seen a shift is there anything um that's you know that's a really interesting you know I would say it's more the it's it's it's a much greater sense of resolution is kind of how I would put it and and when we wrote the book in 1997 again that was almost science fiction that was like where out in the world we didn't even know what was going to be happening in America that I mean this is before this was before Obama and before uh uh uh certainly before well actually we did know Donald Trump back then he was already in the news uh but but my point is is that No One Believes you know if if you would ask back there with Donald Trump President we would have just thought what you got to be kidding right um but but so in some sense that shows you how little we knew you know how how little we knew how ignorant we were so what the difference is in back then you was a very impressionistic pict we just saw almost archetypal pieces but we didn't know what would actually play which role that I mean if we talked about the pattern of of geopolitical conflict back then we had no idea what the geopolitical conflict would be well now we know I mean now we know there's actual access of powers out there we identify them we discussed them in the book right uh we didn't know uh Red Zone and Blue Zone they weren't terms in America in 1997 I think that was almost to be invented a few years later during the um during the the the gore Bush election in 2020 when suddenly we we saw they on CNN for the first time is that some states would be red other states would be blue and then we started talking about Red Zone Blue Zone but I think that's the big difference it's it's the sense of a a very fuzzy indistinct picture which is only archetypal almost like in a dream now they fill in we now see it in much more deta and I think that's why in this current book we talk in much more detail about class crises and that's why by the way we have so much in there about American history you know as we go through those earlier crises actually actually started narrate them uh last year I think I think it was last year when we went to Tony's house that you spoke Tony gave us a big book and he said okay now you guys go along with this big big book see where you fit in which generation are you where are we in the world where are we in cycles of history which Generations you're hiring in your businesses and everything that is happening and maap that out and so I came home read a book listen to it like three or four times and mapped everything out and as I'm hiring now I'm thinking of desk assessments I'm thinking of cycles of history I'm thinking of the diversity of my employees by 76 people which Generations they are so I understand how they thinking and now I have another piece that I have to put in there because I work with International people so my second question to you is how does diversity and migration for example if we consider only the US and US history on cycles of history and cycles of generation and how they kind of interlace and we can kind of predict some of those things what role population shift would make like immigration in terms of this yeah it it you know it varies I think I think there is a pattern of of fertility Rises and Falls there's also a pattern of migration generally we have Rising immigration after Awakenings in our history because typically Awakenings weaken public institutions that protect but we just basically let the borders open let people come in and not just for cultural reasons but also for business re right remember we because and I C to remind people when I think about the Awakening in the 1970s it it started out as a cultural revolution against you know the patriarchy and you know the the you know the family and and and and and square culture and Convention and all that and you know I could wear my hair long and I could strip my wouldn't have to wear the suit and you know all the but it was also an economic Revolution right against taxes regulation immigration restrictions and there was a huge economic reason for wanting immigrants I mean if run a business that could be great you know have a lot of low wage people and and we we forget that one of the reasons why this e and flows is that then you have the fses of the unraveling which which most recently was was you know the late 80s 90s the oos which is a period of huge immigration in our country very large we we're up around you know seven or E uh immigrants per thousand people every day and that's that's a that's a large net immigration stream uh but that's like earlier uh uh third tur that's like the turn of the century around the 1890s you know around there or the 1900s uh these are the peak of migration in America so what happens during a crisis typically sometime during the crisis immigration Falls and that's because America becomes less desirable as a location and also because we become much more protective about the people that are here now some that's due to unions I mean unions it's funny because today the Democratic party you know supports you know open borders and you know let bring everyone let's give everyone the privilege of kind in America and so on but historically unions are always been anti immigration that's true all of American History until very recently uh when that that that stopped but but unions draws in Immigration because it invited in people who undercut wages right and in uh in the 1920s uh uh in the early 1920s we shut the immigration window uh suddenly and then suddenly when the DI generation grew up in a very low immigrant country you know when when they came R AG but as a result uh wages started rising and one of the reasons why uh equality uh arose again inequality declined during the 1930s and 40s and 50s those are very low immigration decades and by the way uh the 1920s and then again during World War II these are the decades when African-Americans came up from the south and their wagen improved tremendously they couldn't come up from the South during High immigration from Europe because all his jobs are being taken by unskilled Wagers from from Eastern Europe and from other places around the world right so in other words this this this created opportunities within America I think more importantly though there I think America will always be a high immigration country let me just say that America has by far best hugest destination for immigrants of any country in the world in absolute ches and our immigration rate is very high um uh Scott not quite so high as Australia Australia is very high along with very high yeah very interesting that these Anglo nations are huge immigrant countries and they believe in Immigration and they are the highest immigrant countries in the world right um uh Europe much l so uh East Asia almost no immigrants you know and and those who do come in are guest workers they never become citizens and so so I'm very proud of America's tradition as being I immigrant country but I do think that it Debs and flows according to the sideo and what's really important is in the first turning after the crisis the idea of diversity changes right during the first you're expected to be a team player it doesn't matter when you were born here that everyone's expected to be part of a Melting Pot right and that is when the Melting Pot idea of immigration becomes very popular so if you're thinking at but in your case of people are having infant the rest of the world you can tell them that they can look forever join America in which everyone's expected to join you know they'll all be on the same team thank you Michelle hey we got time for a few more hope um Casey you had your hand up patiently for a long time man thanks I appreciate it Neil this is kind of a a two-fold question so I'm curious you know the origin of the word seculum I believe you said originates you know hundreds of years ago if not Millennia and at that time the average life expectancy for most humans was correct me if I'm wrong around maybe High 40s low 50s is that correct well it's we actually discuss that in the book um I can tell you where to go they the average live expectancy was lower but it was mainly because of in High infant mortality and child mortality and IR mortality and something throughout your life but as I point out anyone in reachs you know age 20 or 25 even at high mortality premodern societies most of those people will still be alive uh by their mid AGS that is say majority will still be alive so the difference is is that the average mortality was less because there's a lot of more mortality early in life which today we've almost completely eliminate the point is is once you reach a certain age like your you know mid 20s uh a very large in fact over 50% I had to remain all the way into old age right and what I point out in the book is that when it comes to elderhood as a phase of life it doesn't matter how many people still I role all that matter is that someone builds it and in fact you look at traditional societies what is the role of of of Elders right I mean their role I mean we we go through actually you know what your faces of Life roles are you know what you know young s of learning values and practices uh uh when when your child and then as a young adult it's it's it's it's you know actually followed through those teaching and actually getting done for society and then in midlife it's it's it's uh you know its leadership you know organizing people founding families and so on and organizing kind of guiding society and and in among Elders it's uh providing Authority and providing a sense of direction tyy can I ask what's your interest in the world sorry to jump in there is a whole big chunk in the book that talks about that word true the it's not it's not Neil's word it's been around I actually thank you for this book Neil I actually read the book the whole book and right before that I read Peter Z book about the end of the world is just the beginning so it was very have your book come with this opportunity my question is aulum has always meant the life cycle of a human with the advances of biosciences longevity technology if we are living to 100 to 120 to 150 years will a seculum always be indicative of four generations or will there be a fifth generation so to speak question uh yes uh I'm sorry I do raise on the new book I talk about late Elder that's an emerging phase of life um and uh and the fact that we have you know at the end of 2020 cend year 2020 for the first time obviously the first time in history not only America I think any any any Nation we had oxygenarian at the head of the Senate the house and the white house right at the same time we had Biden uh Pelosi and Mitch mcod they were all 80 or 81 years old I mean just absolutely extraordinary right I mean you think about that whenever we Ting like that um so what what's actually causing though the the dilation of Life faces meaning the phase of life will be slightly longer what that means is the generations would be slightly longer and it means actually the the the culum will actually expand somewhat and as I explained in the book and SC you remember there's an discussion in the book I talk about how in in premodern the premodern world even though life expectancy was shorter uh childhood is longer in other words it took longer for young adults actually to become independent you know back in the in the late 17th and and most in the 18th century particularly in the old world in Europe uh you you Wen you weren't independent your early 20s it was much more like Millennials today you couldn't really get out and found a new house until maybe you're late 20s and there was no premar pregnancy back then we know that from church records I'm almost you know you had to get married to set up a new household and that was usually in your late 20 we found find back then but the generations were longer and the the the entire ccum was longer back then it gradually got shorter moving into the 21st century now we think it's getting longer again but it's not primarely determined by L expectancy uh it's interesting throughout most of the 20th century life experience has got much longer due to reduced um childhood diseases or you know young adult diseases um but as I said recently lifeix is actually get shorter I don't know that if you remember my grant about the healthc care in this country but but younger younger generation they're not in great he like qu obesity diabetes stress hypertension that stuff is not in control of today's younger generations and and and if if this stuff is not controlled as they grow older and this stuff is going to get worse as they grow older um I don't know I'm just laying down my lay down cautionary not there I appreciate that and may I ask one more quick question have you ever regarding the all the information that you have and looking at historical facts have you ever run somewhat of like a regression analysis to be able to see if you could predict the the outcome of an election because if you you understand Generations so well I'm curious data and gone back the problem is it's different kind of event it's little like predicting stock market it's a very particular event that could go one way the other um I think what what I can do is predict what what and a lot of people can do that other words they crunch all the data by the way I have someone on my team who does um you know neural network machine learning and and we actually we actually try to do multi-day brations on stock market data so I I'm involved in that but that's completely different what I do here is I think thematically uh uh using the past as my guide to think about thematically about much longer term periods and nobody else does that and I feel my compartive advantage is looking at at at um at teachers that no one else has any idea about uh a lot of people can predict the next election you know crud a lot of data that's not my comparative advantage understood well thank you so much your book was amazing and one of my favorite quotes from Bolter says history doesn't repeat itself but man does and right along those lines so thank you so much I appreciate it you're welcome than it thanks Casey Hey Jeffrey you've been waiting patiently my friend you're on all right great great to see everybody Neil thank you for being here and taking time again yeah you're welcome you know the the validation of the second book over your first book is just incredible and the update of statistics and and you know people's perception I mean one that's struck me was was the fact I think it was what 69% of of people feel like we're headed towards a civil war or something I'm not sure the per it's a big number right so you know given that where where where are you taking your family where where's that Haven on the planet that that we can go for opportunities for lifestyle and and opportunities and economics and then helping but yet taking care and preparing for our family we we're on the planet is that well you have your bug bag with you you know are you stuffing things into it right now you know just St them things into your bug head back look um I'll be honest with you and just don't get alarm but I've actually moving uh with with my family U I Live Now in Grace Falls Virginia Which do of you who knows right outsite DC I'm sort of part of that big you know DC area uh but we're moving to West Virginia a large a large property at the top of the mountain you know with its own Orchard on it and so on and now we're not we're not I'm not going survival mode here so don't get me wrong it's something like that in since and I'm I'm not really an extrovert I really don't like living in a community like this I I love Solitude I get my I get my best ideas uh when I'm sort of alone I can meditate I can look fast since I grew up in California and I grew up in the wilderness and I really missed that I like that um that's personally I I think that's more of a personal style I'm a well functioning introvert you know I get along gr with people right they at me wrong I gotta get along great with books but that's not where I charge my energy right and I think that's the sign I think introverts need a little solid to to recharge I think extroverts to recharge they just got to get with people you know what I mean that that's so that's that's how I I look at myself in terms of the Big Five personality traits um but I do think that that in terms of of the most important thing you know we' talked about we talked about portfolios we talked about a lot of that here's here's one piece of advice I would give uh because I I talked a lot to Millennials about this you know because they often asked me well where should I invest and I said well you know I can give you investment options if you want I can tell you you know don't don't get into uh nominally denominated assets that don't those don't work well in an inflationary environment uh so don't you know unless you're unless you're into tips but don't get into you know treasury bonds and all that kind of stuff uh I can give you all that kind of advice but I think one piece of advice I would give and I give this particularly to young people is your best investment for missoury down the road particularly in a and a turning s situation is to bond with your family particularly your extended family you know we have no workable uh uh long-term care insurance in this country and the whole idea so right with with moral hazard and and inability to negotiate a fair price it's never going to work you know your your long-term Health your long-term care insurance is your family and let's face it it's true for everyone B with some long-term friends and with family members if you have trouble with your family members find a way to overcome that because in the long run that's could to be worth far better than extra money in your portfolio and I I say this very seriously and in terms of your relationships with the people that are close to you because in the fourth turn uh we don't know what kind of social security or Medicare we don't know what Medicade is going to be like there may be other agendas that may be subing much more for this country to be spending money on right and your personal well-being just may not be the top of anyone's priority but what will save you in a situation like that is having your own close Community right your own family connections and this something I think much more important in a for turning than necessarily in an Awakening you know and getting rid of the patriarchy and we all want to live alone we want to go solo and right well that may be a good time to do that this is not a time um je thanks a question and you could be so gracious Patricia's been waiting so patiently we got one final question then we really are done Patricia you're on um I agree with the healing emotionally us it helps our kids everyone and I I totally agree with you in a situation of Crisis we want them to to be connected and in that in that know Community if you were to give a recipe to build a community not only your family and your friends but I'm talking about an industry um if you want to create an industry Community to have that Bond going what are the recipes what are the things that I would need to take consider all build an industry as a community you mean you mean fellow people and across firms is that kind of that kind of community yes like a tribe where people have a sense of belonging that that sense of care that sense of a place to go for uh that someone has my best interest at heart what what would be the ingredients that I would need to consider in order to create uh that this community well you know the first thing is um you know don't break any any trust laws uh I guess my second piece of advice is um to get them to be able Comm and I think that is a really good question I would remind them all what would you all do if the demand for for whatever we produce suddenly went down by 50% what do we all do uh where where is your safety net where is our safety net and if we produce something which has some public benefit do we make it case you know one thing I talk about is in fourth turnning representation in our political system becomes more important a lot of gen xers Scot and this say is a kind of a generational thing but a lot of gen xers came of age thinking I don't want any regulation I want nothing to do with government when it comes to government I just want to stay out play radar screen and I'm just going to do my thing totally competitive environment but in a for turning uh those are the people who get crushed and I think very often in the for turning people began to refine communities even businesses and commun ities and they find a way to say look uh let's be fair here everyone is going through huge privations everyone is suffering in this current crisis we may have to save money to spend on something else nonetheless what we offer as an industry is valuable and government or the public should take an interest in it and protect this it becomes more important to have a presence in our political system because those decisions will become much more powerful and much more consequential than they ever were whenever you know whenever happened back in the 1990s of the 2000s but in the world in crisis um the public sector is going to be making or breaking the fates of Industries and companies and you really want your voice Hur and I would I would organize your community by getting them to think about this getting to think about their future and get them to think about what do we do in worst case scenarios are we do we make our case as an industry are did do the communities in which we already were know about us and do they care about what we do and do they care about what happens to us yeah that's be my advice thank you thank you so so much that's help you're welcome you're welcome thank you Patricia hi um we've uh reached out time we want to be respectful uh Neil of uh your time um just thank you you know I know Tony so respects and revers what you teach and what you do and he's been so grateful for your teachings in the last 30 years in his life as a participant of Tony and you know someone who's on his team we're ever so Greatful I know the lions are so grateful to have you um come to's house last year and be here again with us today uh we wish you great success with the book and hope that it's uh a huge phenomenal World success as it should be and deserves to be uh as Michelle said thank you for writing it it was so beautiful to read um just ever so grateful and um and we wish you phenomenal Success With It ladies and gentlemen can you please give Neil a big Beau thank you Scott thank you Scott it was a pleasure um I I enjoyed looking out when I was in Tony's Place looking out on the Atlantic Ocean all and then here we all out together again I I feel like here's another team that I'm a member of so U you know but we'll have you back anytime you want anytime you want to come play with us or hang out with us I'm sure the team are always excited to do that I see Pig Smiles in all their faces so again uh we thank you uh we appreciate you and respect you and uh we're we're grateful for any time we get to SP so thank you once again ladies and gentlemen give it up you make some noise all right and and and thank you thank you my friend really great thank you thank you guys thank you guys for having me [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause]

Channel: Tony Robbins

Views: 66,736

Keywords: Tony Robbins, Anthony Robbins, Neil Howe, the fourth turning, fourth turning, the fourth turning is here, what is the fourth turning, fourth turning explained, fourth turning is here, fourth turning predictions, Neil Howe fourth turning, neil howe 2024, neil howe 4th turning, 4th turning, tony robbins podcast, tony robbins podcast 2024, neil howe podcast, neil howe interview, the 4th turning, neil howe 2023, neil howe generations, fourth turning book review

Id: KW1OzNE3rbU

Length: 93min 36sec (5616 seconds)

Published: Wed May 22 2024