The Real Threat to US' Security is Right at its Border

mexico is for the us the most strategic country in the world though we are used thinking of america as one of the most strategically blessed countries the 2 000 mile long frontier dividing mexico is one of its most critical regions for its security and that is because safe land borders allow for u.s power projection all over the world however there is a small war happening now south of the u.s border one that can be a potential geopolitical threat to america well americans might see mexico for its lush rainforest crystal clear waters of cancun or for its stunning desert landscapes mexico's geography is in fact closer to that of afghanistan than any other latin american country making its northern regions a potential security menace the mexico-us border is a porous vulnerable one making it hard to control and even harder to police like the talibans in afghanistan the mexican cartels are now taking control over large swaths of northern mexico just south of the u.s border this is nothing new however what is unprecedented is now their forces resemble more and more military units proper and the number of casualties and violence is closer to that of a war as the new york times calls it an absolute warfare is going on in mexico so close to the border that it is becoming a potential security threat to the us a secure border means a solid american geopolitical clout a geopolitically porous border which is now becoming closer to a battlefield between highly armed paramilitary groups is a menace if this menace is now only potential if left unattended can become a resource for us enemies and a real threat to america's security up until now the border fostered beneficial cultural and trade exchanges in the future these cartels might be able to threaten u.s security right at its own southern border if in 1916 pancho villa raided american cities on horseback now cartels can leverage the same favorable geography with much more advanced capabilities and weapons potentially expanding their reach into the us oh and by the way quick shout out to the patreon community for choosing this topic link is in the description as always geography provides us with a key for analyzing the u.s mexico border mexico is 70 mountainous the two main mountain chains the sierra madre occidental and the sierra madre oriental cut the country into two halves these mountains are so high up to 560 meters that if they were all flattened the country would have a similar extension to asia paraphrasing peter zion the mix of rugged arid and mountainous terrains the poorest borders and the urban centers limited to a handful of habitable lands makes mexico's geography closer to afghanistan than any other country in northern or latin america and this expands to the two countries demographics as well they in fact share the same population density of around 60 inhabitants per kilometer squared and even the same mortality rate of 6.1 percent mexico is such a vast but sparsely populated country and a night map can help us visualize that if we compare the entirety of mexico with the whole of the us we can see how mexico only exists in a few pockets of urban centers whereas in texas for example numerous small cities along the countryside surround major hubs like houston it's not like mexico's population is small at 129 million it is in fact just one-third that of the us but in just one-fourth of its contingent states territory this means that the country is much more densely populated but in just a few parts of its vast territory if now we overlay a map of mexico's rainfall density we can see how cities match the areas with the most precipitation and the better climate mountains cut the habitable regions of mexico into two halves leaving only a small strip of fertile and flat lands around veracruz this last one is also the main deep water port in mexico and the logistical key into mexico city to control veracruz is to control mexico city and to control mexico city is to control mexico historically since the 16th century the spanish the french and the americans all took control of mexico city via the deep water port of veracruz despite having access to two oceans mexico is a land power sea trade only accounts for two percent of its gdp by contrast usc trade amounts to almost 10 percent this is also because the mountains drastically hinder the interconnection between the two shores back then and now mexico's trade mainly happened on land especially by road which accounts for 88 of mexico's gdp and that is because of the u.s as they might well see in mexico every road leads to the us border if the regions bordering belize in guatemala are lush and densely forested hills in the north the mountains meet the sonora and chihuahua deserts the lack of major geographical features apart from the rio grande also known as the rio bravo del norte south of the border has made this into a porous region furthermore the 1948 guadalupe hidalgo treaty created a new entity which neither geographically nor demographically fully represented mexico nor the us the territories formed by the northern mexico and southeastern u.s should be considered as a borderland paraphrasing george friedman this is not a no-man's land rather in all man's one in the past few decades the border perosity has fostered the cartel's proficuous drug trade the illegal drug trade market in the u.s has been valued at 19 through 29 billion us dollars and its value is consistently rising a rand report shows that americans spent about 150 billion u.s dollars on illicit drugs in 2016 a 50 increase over 2010 getting a foothold into such a rich market is the goal for all the main cartels and has been at the center of their wars since 2006 around 300 000 homicides were linked to these criminal groups among those high-profile politicians military top brass and even state officials this violence has been rising unprecedentedly in the past years with the number of homicides reaching a level of 35 000 deaths per year by comparison the united states which has almost three times mexico's population only accounted for 24 000 homicides ten hundred thousand less this has prompted many mexicans to flee their homes according to mexico's commission for defense and promotion of human rights in 2021 alone about 44 905 people were displaced a five-fold increase over 2020 these numbers are those of a war this is almost four times the number of inhabitants of santa fe new mexico's capital and are even higher than the total casualties of the war in afghanistan these are the numbers of a war a war happening right south of the american border mexican cartels are reaching a point where they are able to contest the mexican state sovereignty of specific areas of the country and are also able to enforce their own rule now do you remember the similarities between afghanistan and mexico's geography shouldn't we also consider mexican cartels as insurgent groups similar to the talibans which us troops fought until august 2021 both parties share uncanny similarities they are both strong non-state actors they maintain a solid income via drug trafficking and opium production they both engage in terrorist actions and they de facto control vast areas of mexico and afghanistan some could argue that the cartels should not be categorized as terrorist groups rather as criminal groups talibans engaged in terror activities for political motives whereas cartels pretty much like pablo escobar which was included in the u.s list of terrorist groups do the same for economic reasons however we should consider two main facts first a 2003 u.s drug enforcement administration report accounted that 39 of foreign terrorist organizations were somehow related to illicit drug businesses second the cartel issue is intertwined with mexican politics their reach and corruption of state officials is pervasive to all levels of the mexican government and this has led to poor and inefficient state services especially in the regions further from mexico's core as thoroughly explained in kraut's trilogy on mexico this has led to social and economic inequalities which only exacerbate the cartel's rule over peripheral regions in these border regions cartels fight their turf wars over the main plazas from tijuana to nougalas from ciudad juarez to madamoros cartels are fighting for their hegemony and little by little are creeping over the border into the u.s if until now the full-blown cartel war was restrained to the south of the border what guarantees that it will not move up north in the future mexican cartels have been shaping their capabilities and tactics resembling more and more those of a proper military force armed with 50 caliber rifles armored vehicles and explosives they are a force that neither the police nor the board of law enforcement can face if mexico and the u.s will have to fight heads on these criminal organizations they would need all the tactics and experience developed during the conflict in afghanistan mexico has been ramping up its police capabilities in 2019 president lopez obrador disbanded the federal police creating the new national guard under the ministry of security this new force drives around on humvees and trucks with machine guns mounted on top using more counter-insurgency tactics and even adopt military aircraft to kill cartel kingpins the rugged mountainous terrain makes guerilla warfare a viable means of opposing a more conventional and stronger military history offers us a precedent in 1916 these same mountains helped pancho villa escape from general john j pershing after raiding american cities along the border now that same geography helps the cartels thrive first it helps insulate them from mexico's core and its law enforcement reach second if i learn something from breaking bad which not by chance takes place close to the border in new mexico it creates the backbone of the cartel's business the production of opioids and methamphetamines in particular the so-called triangulo dorado or the golden triangle in english is the main region where cartels contend mexico's government rule and have established their main drug production sites this is a region that sits about 2 000 metres above sea level tucked deep inside the sierra madre occidental it is a very remote place poorly connected to mexico's core and with the ideal climate for opium agriculture here these plants find the perfect conditions of snowy winter drizzly spring and overall dry weather until the plant maturation in mexico are thus produced the majority of heroin and methamphetamines used in the u.s while cocaine is mostly made in colombia and subsequently moved to the united states by mexican cartels mexico is also on par with china a leader in the production of fentanyl a synthetic opioid many times stronger than heroin the amount of fentanyl seized by mexican authorities skyrocketed in the last two years however this business has a main weakness it heavily leverages on logistics for example opium culture requires a heavy amount of fertilizer as they quickly deteriorate the soil and also need constant irrigation before winter snow and most importantly the final product must be moved to the final consumer the majority of mexico's produced legal drugs get confiscated at the 300 ports of entry spread throughout the border however cartels have been employing a wide variety of tactics to avoid law enforcement agencies like the smuggling via submarines airplanes and drones in order to hinder the cartel's military and economic clout it is important that this area is put under control however mexico lacks the physical hardware to control its vast air nc spaces for example one estimate shows that mexico's aerial monitoring system siva in spanish is only capable of covering around 20 percent of the country and the majority of its assets are focused on mexico's southern border with guatemala america's military cutting edge radars and its experience in afghanistan can substantially help mexico close the gap in its reconnaissance capabilities offering a credible deterrence in contrasting the expansion of the cartel's power in the south and most importantly north of the border the merida initiative partnership initiated in 2007 by the then presidents george w bush and felipe calderon allocated more than 3 billion u.s dollars in contrasting narco traffic and for fiscal year 2022 congress approved a 300 million us dollar package for mexico to combat the cartels though these are important proofs of cooperation issues remain for starters u.s aides to mexico are far outpaced for a serious war against paramilitary cartels if the u.s have sent as of august 2022 something like 10.6 billion us dollars in aid to ukraine a strategic ally on the other side of the world they should be helping at least to the same degree mexico with whom it shares a direct border these security issues derive first and foremost from this region's history and geography remoteness social inequalities and at times rocky u.s mexican relations have greatly benefited the expansion of the cartel's rule making these into a potential threat to the u.s for the u.s helping mexico's war on the cartels should be a top priority maintaining a safe border and a friendly relationship with its neighbors has allowed the projection of american power over the world's oceans and if america wants to maintain its geopolitical clout washington should focus more and more on cooperating and buttressing its relationship with its closest trading partner with whom it shares such a vast border thank you so much for watching see you at the next one you

Channel: Kamome

Views: 196,773

Keywords: video, sharing, camera phone, video phone, free, upload, documentary, narration, geopolitics, map, map animation, international relations, strategy, narrated documentary, geography, politics, US, infographic, narrated video

Id: xUn1uaob3XA

Length: 15min 44sec (944 seconds)

Published: Sun Sep 18 2022