The Matt Bernier Show | Ep. 21 | June 29, 2020

[Music] it's after welcome to the Matt Berninger show part of the in the money Media Network my name is Matt Berger you follow me on Twitter at Burnie or underscore Matt this is episode 21 of the pod for the end the money Media Network for Monday June the 29th 2020 however you listen thank you for doing so a number of ways to find the podcast whether you're listening or watching obviously if you're watching your over on YouTube in that search bar all you need to do search Matt burning your show it'll pop up along with all the old episodes make sure you subscribe to the end of money Channel make sure the bell icons lit up so you get a notification any time new content has been uploaded on the channel thumbs up thumbs down either way goes a long way it may not seem like it but it helps us as far as sort of interaction and things like that are concerned and also if you listen to just the audio only version you have in the money podcast comm where you can find all the other products pods things like that any of the media available over on in the money media that's where you need to find that and if you're listening just strictly on phones and devices things like that you have a podcast and you also have your Android device for this week's show we're gonna start off right at the top with some of the comments from last week and how that can affect this thing going forward because when push comes to shove all I really care about is doing things that people are interested in listening to or watching and maybe I've lost a little bit of the eye a little bit of the fastball recently so we'll address some of that and maybe some things that are gonna change here going forward dive into a race coming up at Belmont on Friday afternoon that's gonna be kind of part of that whole initial opening piece also touch on some Q&A go over just a couple of comments that some folks have left from last week's show then also updated pick history and I'll do a bit of a quick run through of some opinions of the big races from this past weekend whether it's a Stephen Foster the Fleur to lead the just two games in New York those are the big ones anyway that will quickly touch on and then also in the money and off the board segment for this week so let's start off with the top piece because this is the most important part of this entire pot and that's why we're gonna kick it off right out of the gate there have been a number of people and I know it's not a giant number but I typically when there are people that bring up certain things they're probably not the only ones thinking that there are only a certain amount of people that are actually going to verbalize it or make it clear but it's probably not a unique thing some folks have brought up the the idea that maybe this pot has lost a little bit of its luster maybe it's not quite as interesting as it once was maybe it's become a little bit stale it's some of the specific sort of pieces some of the specific comments you know I I'm I'm much more interested in hearing the the legitimate gripes that people have and not the not the truly kind of comments and some of you made it clear that when I acknowledge some of the trolls from a few weeks ago they weren't thrilled with that promise won't do that anymore these comments here to me these were more constructive criticism than anything else a comment like the one from party films Matt your show lacks meat on the bones I'm terribly bored listening to you ramble on about general information that is self-evident to us all a new face and tone of voice only goes so far tell us something new or you're going to bomb here interview someone interesting anything but this endless string of nothing new you might try making your show about your horse heroes and their upcoming races I mean Lady Apple sort of bombed she was a filly I like in the Kentucky Oaks last year but she finished third I don't see bombs I hear no there but it was at least interesting to listen to your enthusiasm about here we all have horse heroes out here talk about them because that is a story that you could probably sell the people genuine enthusiasm is contagious I agree and I understand a hundred percent that recently and some other folks have brought it up as well just sort of the the lack of the lack of enthusiasm Scottie McMichael I agree with Hardy films come in the best gambling podcasts or where you can never tell if the hosts had a good or bad betting week they bring the same level of enthusiasm every time after getting the BC BC seat Matt was so enthusiastic in the podcast the past couple of weeks after going through a cold streak with the hundred dollar challenge sounds somewhat disinterested as reflected when he answered troll comments and his Q&A episode excuse me a Q&A peace in episode 17 all that 100 percent and I can't argue its fact is the fact and something I needed to be probably a little bit better about and need to be more self aware of and maybe it just takes this and needs some some of you out there that are listening and watching to just kind of smack me around and say come on let's go get back to it to keep going out with Scotty's comment we don't want to listen to him fire back at trolls in this pod it's a waste of everyone's time the best insight Matt's giving us came when he talked about silver prospectors incremental splits in the rebel that's something not everyone focus excuse me that's not that's something not everyone notices at first glance and that's the kind of insight that needs to be on this podcast more often there's a lot of overlap between the in-the-money media shows especially this one in red board rewind which is Spencer Logan Buell you can find that overrun in the money podcast.com I'll be at Spencer's really stepping up his game with the guests that he's had on his shows so there are many pieces here and other people who've brought up the idea of doing interviews and things like that if you even going back to when I was at the Racing Form doing this show the interview piece it's something that I can do but I am NOT I don't believe it's a strength of mine I'll do it for NBC when I have to but but it's not something I'm particularly comfortable with a and B I don't think I'm particularly good at it so I try to avoid that and I also feel like from an interview standpoint anyone that I would have on here for the most part you will probably heard in other podcasts as well whether it's in the money or any of the other racing podcasts that are out there or any of that kind of stuff anybody that I would have on is it's very unlikely that they're going to be a unique voice you've probably heard them at least once if not twice three times four times five times ten times so that's not something that I'm particularly interested in I wanted to throw a little bit of a spin on this thing and I brought it up in the horse players happy hour this past Friday with PTF as opposed to interviewing someone in the industry or someone who's not necessarily in the industry but it's interested in horse racing I'm more intrigued with the idea of going over a race one a week and having listeners and viewers hop on with me to dissect the race and I want to hear what your opinions are for better or for worse and it's out there and and we you have a platform where you can get it out and not just have to type in who you like I'll give you 10 15 20 minutes to chop it up and go through the race and it'll probably be more you than me it would just be more a matter of I'm kind of directing traffic and if there's something I really find interesting maybe I'll throw it out there but for the most part this is an opportunity for someone else to sort of take the reins and say this is what I like now obviously this only works if you all are interested in doing this and are also comfortable either being on camera or just verbalizing things but my my idea is once a week it'll probably be every Friday I'll pick a race and that will be the race that will go over for the week and in the comment section beneath the YouTube player or the video player not the YouTube player suddenly such an old man when I say that beneath the video player on YouTube all you need to do my thought anyway and maybe some of you can can chime in and say for better or for worse maybe we need to change the sort criteria to be involved with this but I just want to see it just picked a winner and from those of you that pick the winner if there are multiples I'll just do it randomly and if there's only one you'll be the person that the following week the following Monday I'll have you come on and we'll leave to do a phoner where it's through Skype or through zoom if you're comfortable being in front of a camera and actually talking will do it on Zoom or Skype you know again either way but but with the video piece up and we'll just riff will go back and forth that to me is a hell of a lot more interesting than hearing the same old people talk about things and it's not it's not certainly not disrespecting guests that have gone on podcasts I've had them on before I've had guests on I just it's you can find it a number of places let's open this up as a possibility and hopefully this is something that kind of goes to Scotty's comments and goes to Hardy films comments if it's the same old same old this is not the same old same old if you guys are willing to play ball it only works if you're willing to play ball you need to be willing to come on and either talk through a race or be on camera and go back and forth but you need to be willing to do that if you're not then this this doesn't fly but I'm trying to do something a little bit unique a little bit different so that's gonna be the plan going forward let's start anyway and see if none of you are are diving in then I'll have to figure something else out but for right now I want to try this I want to try we'll set up a race it'll be every Friday I'll identify it probably on the pod the week before or I'll leave it in a comment section sort of piece here but for right now it'll be a race every Friday I'll pick I'll try to take into consideration weather and things of that nature just so we don't have to get into anything too too crazy you know a sloppy track off the turf whatever and if you pick the winner from that Friday I'm gonna go through and we'll contact whether it's on Twitter or you know I'll leave a comment and say you know send me an email whatever the case may be and we'll try to set up a time on Monday morning or Monday early afternoon to record something so that way we can go over the race for that following week's podcast this week the race that I'm going to touch on will and I'll handicap it will go through and I'll show you the peepees and I'll give you my rationale for things it'll be the 9th at Belmont on Friday it's the license fee it's a six furlong stakes race on the inner turf course if you want to be involved in this for next Monday's show and I know next Monday is what the 6th of July I know some of you may be on vacation just cuz the holiday or whatever it may be but that's when it's happening next Monday's pod we will sit down and we'll chop up the race for that Friday and we'll go from there but again all contingent on the amount of sort of back and forth we get on this thing if none of you are up for it then this isn't gonna work if some of you are you're willing to come on and shoot the breeze for a bit then I think this would be an interesting segment going forward so the 9th at Belmont on Friday let's go into that race now I'll show you what I'm looking at my thoughts then we'll come back button it up go over a little bit of qat and go on with the rest of the pot all right let's do it race 9 at Belmont on Friday afternoon the $80,000 license feed this is gonna be the race leading into next week if you want to get involved for the little handicapping segments that I'm hopeful is gonna become a new staple to this pod on Mondays let me know you think is going to win the race beneath the video player on YouTube if there are multiples who pick the winner I'll just do a randomly but if there's only one of you I'll contact you will get the information out so we can record from Monday and get ready and we'll talk about whatever next Friday's race is going to be for this Friday this is the race six furlongs in ER turf I'm going to breeze through this with some ideas some opinions and thoughts and who I like in here the one bridle wood cat not a hell of a lot of turf pedigree street sense 11% with the turf sprinters the dam was over one on grass none of the offspring of run on turf there is a little bit of class in the pedigree though for Jonathan Thomas here sibling to sweet Loretta multiple graded stakes winner sprinting on dirt the dam is a sibling to spring an heir who is a grade 1 dirt winning router you know again the fact that a rads here interesting she did some good things on dirt I don't have any real knocks other than I don't see a ton of turf and at a I don't know what kind of price she's gonna be but I assume she's gonna be forwardly placed the time form us pace projector which you can see up here in the upper right hand corner they've got her forwardly place is in the rail Arad's gotta go and for a horse that I have no idea if turf is what she's gonna want to do it's gonna be a pass for me if she gets it done great tip of the cap she can do it without me I won't have her the two horse in here a great time one of two in here from Mike Trombetta Johnny V's got them out you can see this formulator of fact right here past four years turf sprint second after a 180 or greater lay off two four excuse me five four 2112 in the money 282 ROI she's a little bit of a nibbler I do like the horse I think there's some ability but she just doesn't seem to get to the winner's circle enough for my liking to 416 life times seven times second or third this return effort at Laurel popped the left lead late for the final 16th but she was down inside on the rail was rather tight don't want to hold that against her and don't hold against her that the top two horses from that heat came back and earned mint to high 50s so ours buyers are concerned in their start those came on synthetic the rest of the fields come back pretty solid you've got a couple of next out winners one with an 82 a horse that didn't win her next start came back and earned an 82 buyer so I would say this is one of those instances where if she can sit off the pace I think she's got a little bit of a chance maybe take advantage of a speed duel in front of her I will say though I don't know about the six furlongs and I don't know if she's got that sort of killer instinct to get the job done for all the marbles that's why I chose to go against number three in here get mother arose for Tom Bush another little number here for you past three years turf sprint second after forty five to one eighty day layoff three for thirteen to seventy six ROI I get it you can twist numbers and statistics to fit whatever narrative you want if you don't agree with it throw it out I don't care what you do with it if you find your own numbers that's fine to get mother a rose to me the big piece here is she didn't pick her feet up in the intercontinental I actually liked her that day I'm not gonna hold it against her because she ran against newspaper of record who we saw come back and win the great one just a game talk about her later on in the pod but also she has this little bit of a pattern here where her second start off of layoffs recently anyway they've resulted in nice efforts he go back to the beginning or the middle of may twenty nineteen coming off of a layoff she runs well close to the pace second start back she comes gets the job done take a look at this little layoff here comes back at the end of January down a Gulfstream in the South Beach she makes a bit of a move into a slower pace flattens out second start back she wins the honey fox rather impressively a little bit of a layoff comes back over yielding to her from the inter counter not all second start off the layoff we'll see what we get I do like get mother arose she's proven at the distance she was one that I considered quite a bit there's a part of me that wonders if she takes some money in here and if that's the case maybe I'm not quite as interested but she would probably be my second choice in the spot I think she is very interesting I think she has some ability number four horse is all handled the cash goes out for ray handle Jose Ortiz has the amount I think this short comment here is a rather unkind typically I don't agree with some of these short comments steadied taken up to the eighth Pole she was sawed off bad between horses the fact that she didn't it look like she was gonna clip heels and go down in fact she didn't I think was positive and the fact that she stayed on and battled as gamely as she did as a feather in her cap take a look at some of the other horses that ran in that race 79-73 buyers the sixth and seventh place finishers both next out winners with buyers of eighty five and seventy nine maybe you get a second move forward a second start off the bench even if she just replicates that effort because it does look like she or did anyway looked like she was gonna fire she's interesting the fact the Hosea takes them out I think is a positive for you let the price be your guide here at there was a little bit of ability in a spot like this and I like that she's not the kind of horse that's gonna get cooked in the duel but she's also not gonna come from one hundred out of it I could see her sitting two or three off of it I'll handle the cash wouldn't surprise at all if she ran quite well the five super escaped I just have no idea about the distance here for her I think she's talented she'd done some good things on the racetrack I also don't know if turf is actually what her favorite surfaces she's two for four on a fast dirt track she's one for one on since she had one for eight on grass this turned back in distance we'll see if it works to her advantage I think the fact that she's been forward in some of the longer races makes me think she's probably gonna actually be a little bit farther off of it going shorter distances and as far as the the most recent start off the layoff is concerned it was good when you think that we hadn't seen her since the end of December last year and it's also interesting that the race from a numbers standpoint that she's exiting it's come back solid the winner came back and earned an 87 buyer the third-place finisher in eighty fifth and six eighty seven eighty four so you know I think both Trombetta horses are interesting I think there are questions for each of them again I would kind of let price be your guide if you if you think you can get super escaped home at a middling to sort of double-digit kinda number is she's definitely intriguing but I just I just don't know about the distance and I don't know where she's gonna be positioned how much ground is she gonna have to make up when the real running begins the six escapade escapades a likely winner I believe I just there were a couple things that turned me off another number if you're interested past five years 60 to 180 day layoff turf sprint for Jonathan Thomas 7 for 21 15 in the money with the 170 ROI the Lightning City stakes race that she exits from Tampa back in the middle of February very very live Jean Elizabeth comes back wins with a 90 on synth our happy ending comes back wins next out with an 89 fourth place finishing next out winter 83 so clearly coming out of a super strong race escapade has some gaps in the workout tab and some of you I'm sure won't care about it and that's your prerogative it was enough to turn me off at what I think is going to be a little bit of a shorter price that if she was just working steadily along I probably would have been more inclined but with these little gaps I'm just not totally convinced especially given the amount of money she's likely to take the other thing I'll throw out there I think she's gonna be involved in the pace but I can make the Arg that she's better coming from slightly off of it not that she's an incapable of running well when she's up there pushing the pace but I think she's actually better when she can sit and stalk a little bit as evidenced by this race that's off the turf I understand but she sat two or three lengths off of it came with her run go back to this race here off the lay off at Laurel the n3x to two and a half lengths off if it comes with a run this run at Tampa excuse me at Gulfstream sits off of it a length comes with a run and she hit again she's shown that she can run well forward in the run but I like her sitting off with the pace a little bit and making that a little bit of a bid as they turn for home the seven miss our met you know she's been a different animal since they put blinkers on her and I think this is something you always want to keep in mind don't overlook the little things that can change with horses little equipment change you know she clearly took her game to another level once the the shades went on but also look for things like front wraps that's gonna be the little F designation anywhere over here sometimes you can see a horse start going off form when the front wraps have gone on and I think it's you just need to factor it all into your handicapping puzzle my Knock with Miss Alma is the pace situation she's gonna be forwardly place I think she has one way to go I don't see her sitting from here I think Louise sighs who's a good gate rider I think he just step on the gas from the minute the gates open you try to wire this field between her and the one down on the inside possibly hooking up maybe even the six escapade is involved in this thing I think there's going to be enough speed for a horse that can sit two three four lengths off of it to try to come with their bid and that's why I landed on the $8.00 católica however you want to pronounce it I believe Travis Stone pronounced it Dalek ax and the run on May 21st down at Churchill the n2x she came from well off of it and she won like a good thing she just galloped out there I love that when Rosario got into her not only does she level off and move really really well but she effectively when he eased up on her for the final hundred yards she popped to her left lead at the wire I don't really care about that because the race was well in hand further win as comfortably as she did I think she's gonna get a fair pace to run out in a spot like this I don't she has to come from as far back as she did in this run at Churchill and then you couple it with the idea that mentality came back at on Friday afternoon in Hesse tonight and one stakes race I know it was for New York breads but got the job done with an 88 buyer I think Dalek is gonna run at least as well as she did in the Churchill race if not take a step forward second off the bench is a little number if you want to try to knock a horse like Dalek a past five years for Al stall junior winter last out second after 45 to 180 day layoff six for 40 to 20 and the money with a $0.54 ROI and this is the most important piece to me all six of the winners were even money or less so do with that what you will I was taken enough by what I saw and the forum anyway that the race is holding she gonna be a short price I don't know that she's necessarily gonna be worth gambling on but from this sort of let's call it contest standpoint Dalek o would be my pick in here if it were a race where I needed to consider prices you know maybe I'd be looking more to super escape or something along those lines but if I'm just trying to pick who I think is going to win the race I'm gonna go with eight Dalek ax in here for Alice all junior and Joelle Rosario coming from slightly off of it again all you need to do this is gonna be Friday's feature at Belmont Park race number nine if you're trying to get involved in this little segment that hopefully is going to be something that we do going forward all you need to do beneath the video player on YouTube just pick who you thinks gonna win the race I'm not even asking you to do a write-up and if you're cure if you want to throw out reasoning please the more the merrier the more we can all help each other the better you pick the winner I'll contact you let's get into Q&A we're gonna take a look at some of the other comments from last week's show beneath the video player on YouTube this is where you want to leave those if you're gonna try to get involved or you want to have anything thrown out there let's start with I think it's actually kind of a two-fold question some folks assignment question some folks were commenting on handicapping as far as contests are concerned and then this piece from Bruce Meyer was brought up from last Friday's horse players happy hour which you can find it's uploaded over on the in the money media page on YouTube that Bruce is common we're talking about public handicappers and what is the role of a public handicapper Bruce is common regarding the discussion on the happy hour show regarding the role of the public handicapper I will add my thoughts it really depends on the format if the public handicapper is required to submit all selections in advance for example in a publication such as DRF I believe the goal in that scenario is to pick as many winners as possible regardless of price the tote board is not available so no way to put value into the equation on the other hand if a public handicapper is analyzing race by race on television for example then value should be taking into consideration as the tote board is part of the current package of information from which to draw conclusions that scenario can be much more complex for example horses can be analyzed as most likely winner best overlay legitimate a vulnerable favorite etc it's got a McMichael response they have a miniscule amount of time to analyze make selections on on the race on TV 15 maybe 30 seconds tops I agree with all the scenarios you laid out but on TV your hands forced into just making a selection without being able to tell the audience why I'm going to piggyback this into another piece here from one of the other comments that Jeff Snell threw out here his comment and then Scotty McMichael happen also comment on handicappers playing very well all day in these tourney's in another handicapper who was having a horrible day picks one desperate longshot and shoots up the leaderboard ahead of handicappers who played good all day this is not fair what is worse is the handicapper who played bingo and got lucky with a desperate long shot is considered a good handicapper air quotes good because of what place he is in after the long shot one has to be a way to eliminate the sort of desperation attorneys and reward the better handicappers caps better how about tourney's that odds are irrelevant in just the total of winners air quotes but I mean I think it'd have to be winners during the day over multiple tracks wins the tourney that would be much more fair Scotty's rebuttal is a good air quotes good handicapper is also lucky so you should get your head around that idea you have the same chance to succeed in this game picking random numbers as you do being a good handicapper the Vig is the great equalizer making it a long-term losing game prove it to me if you think otherwise there's a reason that people haven't won the NHC twice it's a game of luck not skill I prefer cash tournaments because you add the money management element which is why you see similar names at the top of the leaderboards ie helmers meaning Christian Hellmers the guy that beat him twice all right there's a lot to unpack here because they're they're two different pieces but I think they're related so let's start off with the public handicapper piece I PT and PTF and I went back and forth I believe to me anybody can pick a favorite it's not rocket science and your strike rate statistically is gonna be about 35 percent so you can look like a brilliant public handicapper just pickin chalk in every race that's an I don't think there's any inherent value there I would say that to anyone if you want to pick winners pick the favorite in every race because statistically you're gonna win at least 1/3 of the time that's plain and simple so I don't disagree with Bruce's statement that if you don't have other information available to you you don't know what the odds are gonna be you don't know what the track conditions are gonna be those sort of things I don't I don't disagree with that at all my only stance on the whole piece is what value am I giving to you by saying the three to five shot is gonna win or even the two to one shot is going to win is maybe it's just strictly an ego thing I don't care that much about picking a winner I'm more interested in trying to find a winner perhaps at a much larger price because those are the ones that are gonna end up tying you over much longer if you're someone that just goes to the track and you just want to pick some winners and catch some tickets I'm not kidding just bet the favor in every race because chances are you're gonna cash it if you're going through ten races you're probably gonna cash at least three maybe four if you're someone that's trying to make money to me that is not a successful way or a recipe for success I should say you need to factor in other pieces as far as odds are concerned as far as race shape and things like that go if it's just simply about picking winners just pick the favor in every race and you're gonna pick winners and if that's the barometer for being a good handicapper or even just it again I gotta separate the two the difference between being a good handicapper and a public handicapper I just I can't bring myself to sit here and just say the chok chok chok chok chok that to me just I don't it doesn't jive with me I would rather have my percentage be lower but the ROI potentially higher because I think frankly that's the only way that you're gonna get ahead if you're not getting some kind of a big rebate or whatever it may be long-term picking chalk after chocolate or chocolate just not going to work your strike rate might be great your ROA is gonna suck plain and simple I mean there's just there's no there's no two ways around now as far as Scotty's comment for the first piece with Bruce the TV piece makes it really really freakin difficult and you hope that you have a medium whether it's a podcast or a write-up or something else to really explain your rationale your reasoning for liking a certain horse or not it 15 30 seconds yeah I mean if especially if there's two of us it's you know what maybe we'll get two minutes but the point is you got to have this thing cranked up ready to go and know that you've got maybe two points that you can really touch on and why again I did n't bother me to pick losers I want to pick horses that AI want to bet on and be that I think our overlays as far as value is concerned and I'm also saying that if there's a two-to-one shot that I shouldn't think should be even money send it in back up the Brinks truck because statistically the two-to-one shot is gonna win a hell of a lot more than an eight or nine to one shot is going to but I think they have a 50% chance of winning the race you're giving me 50% on top of it a two-to-one that to me that might be as good a betting proposition as there is as opposed to saying I think the horse should be four to one but they're going off at ten well still even if I think they should be four to one they're only gonna win one out of five I finding this horse should be even money they're gonna win every other race and you're giving me effectively the odds they're gonna win once every three times you follow me that's and I know some people especially someone like Bruce and I'm sure many of you many of the other folks that are involved here that they have played for a while or know it can understand my point it may sound silly like well why would you just completely punt on on winners because long-term they're going horses lose it happens so forgive me if I'm not willing to just sit here and say that three to five shot oh yeah let's do it unless unless I think the horse genuinely needs to like fall down to not win the race I'm not gonna do it so that's the the reasoning that I go as far as the the sort of III really don't try to differentiate if I was doing this just on my own or in this public medium I want to throw out horse is that at the very least I think can hit the board at a big price but realistically that I think can win in a decent number because long term I think that's how you end up beating it if you are going to try to beat it just on the screws on the square and not getting any kind of a kickback here or there or whatever it may be now let's pivot into the whole other discussion Geoff's now the idea sounds good if you believe being a you believe the barometer for being a good handicapper is picking winners then as I said just pick favorites all day that to me is not a good handicapper that to me is Captain Obvious anybody can do that and your strike rate you will probably you might even border on doubling up my rate of winning but my ROI is gonna be a hell of a lot better I go to the grave believing that it's if you are interested in cashing tickets I say go right ahead bet on all the favorites but long-term that ain't gonna work it's not it's just not a recipe for success now when you bring up the idea of a tournament of just picking winners that to me inherently is not actually an indication of who's the best handicapper you have to value has to come into it I agree with the stabbing piece that's a honestly that's one of the biggest issues with with contests and tournaments right now is if you're in a position like that cuz you're right the way that you laid it out you can have someone who's all over it all day let's pick six winners is up to I'm making it up one hundred and thirty five hundred and forty dollars and then all of a sudden there's one horse that is a capper and the people that had you know I'm making it up seventy dollars end up just kind of nippy a by a few bucks simply because mathematically that was the only horse that was going to get them by you on paper it's very difficult to make a case for that I'm not disputing that that's something that needs to be addressed we need to figure out a way and that's why even these sports player happy hours I've brought up the idea of you know I think maybe there should just be cuts where if you're not in the top X percent after a certain point or after these different checkpoints throughout the contest you're done you're out we're so effectively it eliminates then the absolute mmm the absolute necessary stab if you're gonna try to win we're so if we have let's say it's ten race contests at the at the 50% mark halfway through through five races if you're not in the top half you're out cut yeah done after the next race let's say let's say we chopped ten percent at a time so let's say there's a hundred people that started this thing after five races we cut it down to 50 after four or there's four races now now we're down to 40 30 20 maybe that's not even aggressive enough maybe we need to get it so that going into the final race there's only a handful of people that are left so you know but even having said that there's a real scenario where based on game theory and things of that nature you're gonna get the people toward the bottom that yes I can pick this twelve to one shot who I actually like and I think can win the race but in all likelihood the people ahead of me are gonna also have that horse so if I default do I just end up going to the to the capper you're the we call them an over capper a horse that goes off at thirty five to one where you know just strictly from a cap standpoint if you're looking at you know horse players or horse attorneys or any of these sort of two dollars in place contests you're not getting any added value as far as over the sixty-four dollar cap but you're getting the value in that fewer people are probably going to go that direction knowing that you don't get anything out of it so inherently that narrows how many people are playing it and you get an inflated value because of that so you know look it's a difficult proposition a difficult situation to address because I can understand the idea that people are fed up with all the sudden Joe Blow the back of the pack just has you know picks one horse who on paper is borderline impossible and ends up winning the whole thing at the same time a contest of just picking winners that doesn't do anything for anyone that's just so just as a tally mark throughout that I you're not proven to me that you're any better than anybody else that's just a pic all favorites there's no I don't see any value in that I think you need to include value now this goes to Scottie McMichaels piece and then we will turn the page into a little bit more of handicapping pieces Scotty's point about the Vig being the great equalizer is a hundred percent simply because this the juice in this game is massive especially just in general this is a really really difficult game given how much you're already you're gonna be taking a haircut on to start off with but you almost contradict yourself at the end here there's a reason that people haven't won the NHC twice it's a game of luck not skill I prefer cash tournaments because you add the money management element the money management element is a skill that's that's a skill to have so you contradict yourself there and you're right you see someone like Christian Hellmers who I've said it time and time again he was with me on the horse players show he was the first one to really hammer the idea of value into my head and he has made it clear I we've had conversations in the past that you need to be able to look at things especially in the NHC the likelihood of picking out what is right or whatever is 24 races making it up for two days the likelihood of picking the favor in every one of those races and having the favor win very very slim but you're gonna probably pick a lot of winners the problem is your mutual return is gonna be so small that you have no chance of actually competing to win that's why I've always joked that if you're middle of the pack for some of these contests you actually never had a chance that's why a lot of the folks that end up zeroing out or winning it all like that that to me though you're actually more likely to go zero but have a better chance to win than the person that ends up with $24 that's just because in all likelihood that person that's in that $24 range I mean look they could very usually just be getting unlucky that day but you're probably picking horses that you know realistically not gonna be enough to get you to the top but back to this piece here the money management piece is a skill you there's luck involved in all of this you're gonna have good days you're gonna bad days no no two ways around it but money management is inherently a skill so while I agree with some of what you're saying it disagree with the idea that you got to be lucky well you have to have good money management in the live money events in order to be in that position is good money management luck no good money management is laying out things accordingly and saying you know this is what the game plan is and let's if we need to make little tweaks here and there so be it but that's that's a skill that is not luck I think and based on your comments I think you probably understand that maybe it was just poor choice of words but yeah I think there's there's a lot to unpack there but to my philosophy that's why some people you know if I'm not gonna go into some details but the idea of you know not a great handicap or whatever I'm not trying to reinvent the wheel here as far as you know what the role is all I'm saying is I'm probably gonna pick a smaller number of percentage wise of winners but the ones that do connect the the the ethos pick winners that are going to make up for your losses if I have a string of if I pick 10 horses in a row that are two to one and let's say three of them win okay so if I get six bucks each for each one of those six twelve eighteen but I've bet two dollars on ten races to win where am i I'm down two dollars which is not a terrible number but you're still down an out of those ten races if I pick horses that are let's say 8 to 1 and each one of them and I hit one maybe two let's just go with one though if I hit one eight to one out of that ten race span what's it gonna come back I mean at 18 bucks it's the exact same thing that you did but I only had one you needed to hit three and that's also saying if I'm only picking eight to one shots what if I pick an eight to one a ten to one I sprinkle in a two to one or a three to one maybe you connect with one of those and you grab a price that's why the idea of just picking favorites in the long term it ain't gonna work if I pick that eight to one or I pick a ten to one that gets me back to even as far as those ten races are concerned but I can pick up a four to one and a two to one all the sudden we're ahead so that's the way that my mind goes as far as this whole thing is the whether it's public handicapping whether it's contest play all that sort of jazz now let's take a look at a couple of other real quick pieces then we'll dive into some other little housekeeping comments Tommy Seefeld this was an interesting one to me what if he premature to toss digital-age in off the board category I'm gonna get to that in a little bit seems like he just hasn't had the same kick since the win on Derby Day last year or maybe he wants shorter similar to how Raging Bull has hit his stride going a little shorter that to me the second piece right there I think you hit the nail on the head I went through and looked at his peepees you know his return to the races last week really wasn't bad he only was beaten by a half-length and I thought he got the shuffle on the far turn he ended up following the horses and ultimately one breaking the rules but he only lost by a half-length from a numbers standpoint he hasn't gotten markedly faster yet but that was his first start since November last year as a three-year-old he finished his final eighth and 11 seconds flat and there wasn't a ton of speed signed on there's a part of me that wonders if he's a horse that would be we would appreciate a turn to a mile the problem then becomes is he good enough to really compete with the best of the best in a mile I wonder if he's just kind of in that weird tweener you know he's probably best going shorter but is his best going shorter good enough to run with the best that makes me follow me the mile and an eighth I don't think it's a problem for him but again I don't know that necessarily his best at a mile underneath is as good as some of the other boys and girls that are at my underneath too so I'm not gonna I wouldn't give him up I wouldn't throw him in the off of the board category just yet because hey it's chad brown and if you know throw anything from chad away at your own risk and also I just I wouldn't give up on him just yet I I think maybe a little bit of a change here or there I would appreciate it a little bit more if if he was into the run a little bit knowing that he still has a nice kick at the end if he could get him into the race a little earlier as opposed to trying to rally from four or five six seven out of it maybe that would help his cause as well and the last piece we'll touch on here Alex Kubrick I'm going to read your comments but then I will offer mine at the very end when I talk about those couple races Alex has thoughts a couple other thoughts from this weekend speculation that midnight beasts who could be competitive in the BCC I mean in classic is ridiculous she won't be better at ten furlongs her best is clearly at a mile a sixteenth and she still hasn't won the distaff yet albeit this might be the toughest field she'll face with a lexan Monomoy go montemor girl guarana us with skydiver gamine and contention i maintain the same opinion about me Mary that I had in my episode eight comment newspaper of record finally relax good to see when he had no pace to close in two but that'll change in a race like the BC Mile when everyone knows what everyone is sending in the pace will be high the other piece that he brought up I'm still not convinced about Tom's date ah who was the winner of the Stephen Foster you look at his for me has clearly been exposed while contesting excuse me when contesting true grade one quality horses Mackenzie in the alley Sheba in 2019 City of Light in 2019 Pegasus I want him to prove that he's grade one caliber by taking on the likes of code of honor and Mackenzie in the Whitney and beating them the connections by past last year's Breeders Cup to get his grade one win over a soft Clark field hopefully they put him in the toughest spots possible going forward so we can really gauge how good he is I like the comments all-around brilliant comments Alex I may not agree with all of them but I like the way that you've laid them out you've given reasoning for them and I will give my opinions on some of those almost all those horses here in a little bit for right now though let's transition into pick history we'll dive into in the money off the board and then I will dive into those races that we spoke about updated pick history in the money off the board and some thoughts on those stakes races pick his we pretty straightforward sample size 219 the wind percentage is 18% with a 186 ROI the win place show percentage is 49% the ROI is 182 the numbers obviously from that little bit of a slide there they've taken a hit hopefully trending back the right direction mo of the West last week at 9 to want help things if you're curious about all of the plays that are involved for this piece the pick history they're available over on racing pics.com it's free all you need to do put in your email address you're good to go locked in there myself Andrew Champaign is over there as well it's all free racing pics calm in the money off the board I'm gonna these these two are gonna kind of meld together turn into one this segment along with just talking on the four races that I'm gonna quickly just breeze through in the money's Chad brown there's no I don't know how not just because of what he did with newspaper of record and how she's back seemingly how when was the last time you saw a trainer in one race have to even money shots and not just in any race but a grade one I I don't know that I've ever seen that before and think of all the trainer's over the past and I'll only go ten years but I'm sure you could go even deeper than that can you think and if you hey if you can let me know either beneath the video player on YouTube or on Twitter at Bernie or underscore Matt when was the last time you saw one trainer in one race with six horses minimum they had to even money shots and not only was this just it wasn't just any old race it was a grade one at Belmont bananas to me newspaper of record was really good she I think the biggest thing that she proved here was that she put away that whole notion and I was one of the people bringing it up that to date she'd only want unyielding turf it was listed as firm on Saturday and she was still one for fun I would have wished valedictorian would have pushed her harder and I recognized that you know maybe they thought they could just hang around get a piece but valedictorians already a great at stakes winner I don't know that a great one placing really would have made a tremendous difference as far as a broodmare value is concerned I wish that she had just really pushed hard so I think I might could be wrong but I think newspapers it was a half and forty-eight something along those lines for a horse that brilliant that's kind of seems like a walk in the park but all in all you know good for her she's back oh look at that something wrong wrong side let's do this let's do this and we're back just little now we're back anyway newspaper records good there's a you know again not really breaking any news they're the the thing that I'm going to be most interested in seeing going forward is what happens if other speed is thrown her way what happens if there are kind of two Alex KITT Brooks point what happens when you get some burners in that Breeders Cup mile because let's assume it's you know that that's really what we're gonna be looking at here at this point what happens when there's some other burners in there and she can't go out there and go forty eight to the half what she has to go forty six what if she's gotta go forty six put away some speeds and then deal with world-class closers that's more interesting to me to find out what the hell is gonna happen there also something to keep in mind for all of these races as we lead toward the Breeders Cup which is that Keeneland Keeneland is a very funny track Keeneland is Keeneland they dare I say is quirky the turf some horses can get over it and some can't pick their feet up for whatever reason and I don't know that there's really any rhyme or reason to who does and who doesn't some horses really can run there and some can't and I can say the same about the dirt track just some some odd results can can happen can play out down at Keeneland something to keep in mind I'm not saying that newspaper of records gonna fall into that category but it's nice to see horses that have been proven at that track in the past well you don't have to worry about that sort of thing going into it especially on a short price and you know if she lets just assume it's the Breeders Cup mild she shows up in you know there's gonna be a short price presumably if she carries on with this sort of form giant race from her believed a 1:05 buyer as far as Unni is concerned in that race and the just a game maybe she was a little bit flat the pace wasn't ballistic I thought she'd probably should out finish bow recall who I actually I loved well recall in that race and I thought she ran just fine to finish second at ten to one but you know owning she gonna move forward I mean this was not the end-all be-all I'd imagine a repeat effort and the Breeders Cup is what the connections all have their eyes on for her now as far as the well let me talk about the other race in New York first before I go into my off the board segment the other race in New York the New York stakes I said and I don't remember which episode was but Alex Kidd Brooks making note of episode eight so maybe it is episode eight I think I street it before the race that I believe me Mary is is a could be a Breeders Cup filling in merit type in it so maybe I'll look stupid after this and she went out there and I get it she walked on the Atlanta Lee it easy as can be the boy she kicked she kicked she looks like a proper horse that can carry that speed at longer distances which is to me the hallmark of if if you want to upend the Europeans if you want to upend Chad brown you need to have a horse that can stay the distance and can do it out there on the front end and that's what this filly can do for grant motion I think she's very very talented I love the way that she moves she does everything great now the Knox would be she's gonna have to do it against much better company if we're thinking breeders got fine that's where I'm thinking I'm I am thinking much bigger if she's gonna run in the Breeders Cup she's gonna need doing it's much better horses and the Nick Tamara brought up something interesting he shot me a we went back and forth on Twitter there for a minute Keeneland filly and mare turf I believe is a mile and 3/16 and to me mean Mary feels that much more dangerous as the distance goes longer I don't know that she would be incapable at a mile and 3/16 s but it opens up the possibility for a number of other horses to be involved early on as opposed to the mile and a half types of mile and 3/8 types that we've seen from the filling in Meritor from the past so that could be a little bit of a difference maker but having said that I just love me Mary I think the world of her I think she's incredibly talented and I I said it before the race I said it in that pod must have been episode eight weeks ago I think she could be a filly and mare filly and mare turf type and I believe that now more than ever I think she's very very talented now let's go to the off the board piece the off the board piece for me who's off the board this week it's it's those people and maybe there it's maybe it's some of you it's been out there on Twitter before the people that are pissin and moanin about speed figures about the buyers between midnight be sue and the fleur-de-lis and Tom's they tie in the Stephen Foster this is a very straightforward case I mean it could not be more crystal clear and again I'm not going to get into all the details if you need to learn a little bit more about figure making and things like that I can only recommend the the literature that I have in the past and also follow along someone like Craig mell Kowski on twitter at time form us figs because he's as good as they get when you go through and look at the charts for the runs at Churchill bounce yes midnight be sue looked amazing she never took a deep breath she won I mean it was hands and heels it was a thing of beauty the I'm not even say the problem the reality of the situation is she stopped the clock in 148 point nine nine a shade under 149 for a mile and an eighth which let's be honest pedestrian that she never got out of a gallop so the folks that are saying that the number is too low because of the way that she did it that that's not what a figure is a figure is telling you how fast they ran based on the clock based on the clock and with the buyers she ran a 93 could she have run faster I know some people don't believe that I know some people do I think of a horse like go back a number of years Verrazano to me Verrazano had one way it didn't matter if he was being pushed on or it was it looked as though it was a workout in the morning the horse was gonna give you what he had for better or for worse then there are gonna be other horses that can just kind of loped along out there and if you give them a little bit of a reminder there's a little bit more in the tank now is there enough to make up this the time difference between what we saw from the girls and the boys I would say under no circumstances could I sit here and realistically say that midnight beasts who could have run eight to nine lengths faster than she did and I get it the pace situations were were complete 180s from one another we're in the girls race there was I'm not gonna say an honest pace it was a wicked pace which I know some people were critical I thought it was that that's what I wanted to see from Joe town go open up and just try to run them off their feet if it doesn't work it doesn't work but trying to get too cute with it and as I just go I thought it was a poor effort from Serengeti Empress just as a whole but I have no issues with the tactics and I chose her I said this is gonna be this could potentially be the position where you know long term was be sue thinking they got bigger things to worry about that it of that but when you just look at the the final times with the numbers one forty eight ninety nine versus one forty seven point three four times they taught it's not close I mean we're legitimately talking eight to nine lengths so I don't think anybody complaining about figures has any real basis because to me that clearly shows you don't know what goes into making a speed figure or what a speed figure actually is speed figure has nothing to do with what the horse looks like out on the track has everything to do with what the what the clock says and the clock says that Tom's I saw I ran a hole in the wind I even made mention of it after the race when I saw the chart for the first time it got final eight to a mile on twelve flat that's bananas on dirt I mean there's a this was I would say this is probably the best performance of the year so far on dirt I don't know I'm trying to think offhand if there was if there's something else that's even remotely comparable no I don't think so I mean I he he was in a good position he was very sharp he was very close to the pace throughout like I loved by my standards going into it I loved by my standards coming out of it he just got beat by a better horse in this spot maybe if the dynamics play out a little bit differently you know down the road things can be different but there's no two ways around it he was just beat on the square by a horse who was drawing away down the lane this was a big Lee effort but to complain about the fact that beast whose number was only a 93 buyer and Tom's was a 109 for good reason I mean like he ran dramatically faster like it's not close dramatically faster it doesn't make sense you get what I'm saying much much faster than beasts who did now if you want to say that you think B su can end up doing XY and Z she could run faster she just you know it was a workout whatever that's your prerogative I'm just telling you if you're complaining about the figures you don't know what goes into him I thought B su was awesome you know some people are have already brought up the idea of running in the Breeders Cup Classic I believe I saw that Geoff Blum said that that's not out of the realm of possibility I'm not gonna if that's what I want to do that's what they wanted to I'm not somebody also I can go either way with it if she runs against the boys great if she runs against the girls where I think right now she probably should just because she's never won a Breeders Cup race before to Alex's point and I know it's it could potentially be a salty race but how about you worry about that as opposed to going out to ten against a horse like it compared to Tom's date I it's not in close right now now going back to Alex's point though Tom's a tie if you don't believe a horse like by my standards is a true grade one type his points not wrong and that's always been the thing that's lingering in the back of my mind with Tom's date eyes what do you know you've been beat by a number of these horses before what all the sudden has changed I think it could just simply be that the horse is fully matured and now he's actually fully sound I mean a horse that has had a number of stops starts and stops throughout his career & pharrell stall the finally get him his sound as he is and keep him as good as he is as a 7 year old boy he's a full horse he's not cut I was for some reason I was going back and looking through and I was I was dumbfounded when I saw he was a horse I figured he'd been cut by now he's as good as he's ever been and if he's gonna be doing this sort of thing he's gonna be really really freaking hard to beat he's proven at Keeneland already not to worry about that you know a mile and a quarter I initially didn't know I was put it this way I was gonna say something before the race and that is there a possibility that we're gonna see two Breeders Cup winners coming out of the Steven foster minimum I was gonna say by my standards in the classic and Tom's date on the dirt mile and after watching this I don't think either of them should go to the dirt mile but I I clearly was I don't want to say wrong I still believe him by my standards but the point is I just he was spectacular in here and I don't think you can I don't think is really anything to knock about the performance unless you don't think a horse like by my standards is actually proper grade one quality to Alex's point that he's no Mackenzie he's no you know any of these other big boys out there Kotov on or any of these types already these three-year-olds it's is the law if he continues on this sort of track so that's my off the board piece and those are my thoughts on these races you have thoughts on any other races or these races that I just chatted about beneath the video player on YouTube or on Twitter at Burnie or underscore Matt it's gonna wrap up episode 21 of the map earning your show for the end of money Media Network you can head on over to in the money podcast comm you can listen to this and download it on Apple podcast you can download it on your Android device or you can listen on YouTube type in Matt burn your show in that search bar make sure you subscribe make sure the bell icon is lit up so you get a notification anytime anything new is uploaded to the end of money media page please thumbs up thumbs down whatever it may be and keep coming with the comments for better or for worse I would rather hear what you want to hear or what your honest thoughts are then just keep going and talking into an echo chamber doesn't do anybody any good the the more the merrier and if you're trying to get involved with this know hopefully new segments with the sort of handicapping piece all you gotta do pick the winner for Friday's race this week it's the 9th at Belmont I'll contact you if you're right if there are multiple people that are right I'll do it randomly if everybody responds and nobody picks a winner I'll do it randomly as well but we'll get you all set up and we'll figure it out for next Monday we'll record and then you'll be part of the pod talking about whatever race next Friday is gonna be rolling up so until next Monday best of luck however you play whatever you play and wherever you play it's been episode 21 of the Matt burning show [Music]

Channel: In The Money Media Network

Views: 854

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Id: n1NTMAjXguE

Length: 58min 32sec (3512 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 29 2020