The Lions Hype Train is Unhinged (and correct)

it's it's Lions day so I think it's going to be a nice you know chill laid back episode where we're not irresponsible with expectations whatsoever no no we would never deign to Crown them before they've earned it but that being said holy [ __ ] the lions are pretty [ __ ] good uh we have a lot to talk about today uh between the coaching staff and the scheme they ran last year the scheme we expect them to run this year the Personnel editions the weird uh proclivity for gambling that may or may not have cost them early in the season I don't know there's a lot to go over the 2023 lines so uh yeah I'm gonna sit this rum Jay roll the intro [Music] [Applause] [Music] welcome back once again if you're familiar with this series already because you watch the Bears episode or the Packers episode we are spending uh two straight months doing deep dives into every single Team every single Division and uh it's probably the best thing we do all year not gonna lie it's also the most labor intensive thing we do that's for sure hence why we have to drink for five straight days to get through it with our sanity yes uh we do want to thank by the way Underdog fantasy for making this possible in the first place if you didn't hear the news and this is the first one of these you're tuning into for some reason we convinced our buddy Nick Rudman over at Underdog to fully fund this show for two years so you can guarantee yourself two more years of bootleg Shenanigans where we talk incessantly about the Detroit Lions for an hour and a half I don't know why they agree to it but they did and we're thankful apparently they believe not just in us but in our audience and so for love of God EJ we cannot let them down we have to somehow find a way to make this worth it because I don't know how we're gonna do it but we have two years to figure it out well all they asked us to do and this is important for you to know home too was to continue all this foolishness they're like we don't want to reroute you or really get in your way just do more which when you're handing us a substantial sum of money and saying keep doing it for two years it's a very dangerous precedent and we will do more uh a lot more including more of these so again a good time to hop on the train we have I don't know 29 more episodes on individual teams coming we have eight more division episodes coming all the way through the start of the season and then we got you know live streams during the season weekly episodes it's it's a lot lots a lot their money is well spent uh if you want to reward our sponsors for making this possible by the way and you happen to be a best ball player or you happen to be really into pickums week to week promo code bootleg over Underdog fantasy they'll match your deposit up to 100 so whatever you put in up to 100 they will double it and you can use it on anything on the platform there's 15 million dollars in prize pool for Basketball Mania right now uh again there's pickups during the season for every single Sports basketball baseballs hockey like whatever you're into under got it and uh the more of you that sign up the more likely it is they come back again so we would really appreciate that yeah they would we would um and a large part of this is because they believe in all of you not just because they believe in us um they believe in the way that you sure don't believe in us I think they're more believe in the audience they believe in the way that you have followed along All of These Foolish Shenanigans supported us in so many ways through so many types of content the draft regular season live streams on Thursday nights stuff like this in the off season to preview what's coming you basically we all ride along with all of it we don't transition audience to audience the audience just follows us through all of this and they see that and it's a major reason why they're interested in being you know our primary sponsor for the next couple of years so yeah if you want to support us support Underdog we'll get to do more of this fun stuff and you'll get to see it all that being said what we are here to talk about today are the Detroit Lions uh Undisputed winner of the off-season Super Bowl by the way really oh my God everybody's predicting I say this as a complete Nutter hypocrite because uh spoiler alert my ceiling of wins for them in our last segments 12. uh but even me by comparison for a lot of people are low on the minds there's a lot of people that that are like oh this is a 13-14 win team they're going to push for first seed they're going to go on a run not saying it can't happen not saying it won't happen but the hype train left the station basically in the last week of the regular season last year when they beat the Packers and it's only getting steamed and then they had a great you know free agency and draft period there were some controversial picks that we'll get into but overall they had a great off season and it kind of didn't matter like people saw the Jameson Williams suspension and they're like [ __ ] it they'll be fine 13 wins chalk it up and like I I get it I totally get it but I also can't remember the last time there was this much hype yeah around the Detroit Lions like their own fan base doesn't know what to do with themselves right now like this is the most hyped Lions team I've seen in at least eight or nine years easily at least but yeah there's there's a lot going on I'll let you kind of recap 2022 and what we're looking to get into in 2023 because even despite their record not looking great uh they were in a lot of those games they ended up losing yeah let's talk about why this team has this hype coming into this year what is it that they did last year to really sort of Build That Base and then build on top of it with the additions you were talking about 2022 the Lions overall record nine and eight again on paper doesn't look tremendous but if you watch the games better than that rank in the division second that's a position that Lions fans are somewhat familiar with hasn't happened a ton lately but again not you know always a bridesmaid never the bride that kind of thing and that's what everybody thinks they're gonna get over this year um home record five and four road record four and four and again those last five games great momentum four and one plus the win over the Packers that's that's a solid team that was a few breaks away mostly on the defensive side of the ball and we'll talk about that from being much more competitive and one of the new things we have this year on these team summaries is an Effectiveness summary and we really wanted to distill down what it means to be a good football team and what are the indicators that can tell us that a team is good at doing those things or not and we settled on EPA per play as our metric we divided that up into offense in terms of running and passing defense in terms of stopping the run and stopping the pass and then you got to score points so points scored and points allowed take those six numbers and give their rank within the NFL so for Detroit their rushing offense was 15th in the league good solid mid-pack running attack that supported their game wasn't what they hung their hat on though their passing offense was fourth they were incredible and we'll talk about Ben Johnson a lot their offensive coordinator in this episode to get him back is one of the major coups and one of the major sort of legs of the stool of this the hype build up for the Detroit Lions if he was gone I think it would have been tempered a little bit him being back means just poor gas on the Fire rushing defense now we flip the script we go from fourth to 29th yeah they couldn't stop the run which means they couldn't get off the field which means they had to boat race people or else not win and eight times they didn't win so no surprise in their draft strategy and their free agency strategy that they went to bolster that side of the ball because their defensive pass coverage was actually worse it was 30th so in terms of the defense you're looking at ranks of 29 and 30. again points scored there should be some foreshadowing here they were fifth if you have the fourth best passing offense in the NFL you're going to score a lot of points they were Fifth and points scored but back to the defense 29th in points allowed so you have the two sides of the coin for 2022 Detroit Lions offense freaking amazing defense oh cover your eyes it's not nice so that helps determine a lot of the moves that they made they have these stats too yeah this isn't just privy to us and they said what are we going to do about that to compete we can't keep getting in these boat races every week and expect to win we have to bolster the defensive side of the ball Ben Johnson's back most of our offense is back we'll add some pieces to that to sort of stay ahead of the curve but we need defense if we're going to be in games because it paints a very sort of Yin and Yang picture black and white whatever you want offense awesome defense awful and it's it's really fascinating to me like when you look at their their season Arc after the lost to Miami which was again a gut-wrenching loss they had a lot of those last year the first half they started out what was it one in six yeah I did the math right one and six after the loss of Miami they switched up a lot of how they operated specifically on defense um they called a lot of zero in the first half of the year and then Miami specifically demonstrated that they had the book on it yep and Tua hit this deep seam and I can't remember if it was to Waddle it might have been a Tyreke where like they knew it was coming because Lions had called zero literally more than anybody else in like the first seven weeks of the Season yeah um and after Miami they pretty much stopped calling it entirely and they still ended up at 15th in in zero and we'll get to that in a second but in the first half of the season they called it more than anybody else Miami punished it ruthlessly and you know they made a change at DB coach and I'm not saying that the zero calls were obvious Pleasant's fault but they made a change of DB coach and they kind of Switched how they were calling their coverages in the last half of the year and the defense at least the past defense got a lot better now they still ended up overall like you said their their rank was was pretty darn low in terms of past defense EPA loud but they went from like historically awful to just like run-of-the-mill awful overall yeah and their their bootleg power score and that's a number we put together where we take those six figures and we average them out reflects that yeah raw score was 18.6 it averages out to 19th in terms of overall League rank pretty much dead middle right I bet you though if we take if we split up the raw score to weeks one through eight and then weeks nine through uh 18 whatever it was I guarantee you it's two entirely different teams yeah there will be again they were just so bad the first eight that it completely dragged down the second half of the year but like they they fundamentally changed how they called their defense and you know using their season long stats like I said they ended up 15th and zero and that was despite calling it virtually not at all in the entire like second half of the year uh cover one meaning single high safety man coverage they were second again they left those Corners out on Islands a lot yeah which led to a lot of big plays in the first half of the year uh they were eighth in cover two which reflects a lot of the changes they were making towards the back half of the Year where they're like okay we can't survive that way uh they they didn't play cover three a lot relative to the rest of the league they were 23rd in cover three and a lot of those cover three calls were early Downs because most teams play Cover 3 on early Downs they pretty much didn't play quarters they were 30th in that they were 13th though in quarter quarter half that was a really big favorite of them in terms of of how they match up against trip sets and stuff like that which is kind of interesting a lot of teams that play a lot of quarter quarter half also Play Straight Up quarters and they were not yeah they were one but not the other one it's a very fascinating defense um and again because they love man coverage in cover five which is savings for two men they were second in the NFL and so overall it was a very Man heavy defense and there were some times where they would hit the panic button a little bit and you know play cover two or play quarter quarter half they just wanted to keep everything in front of them but for the most part they were going to be aggressive and they were going to let their Corners go decide their fate unfortunately for them their Corners weren't good enough to do that which is going to be reflected in the draft which we'll talk about later but I still think they're going to go out and do that again next year and they're going to run it back but they're going to say but we got better dudes now so we can get away with it we're gonna staff it that way the 2022 Lions t-shirt would be live by zero and die by zero and they died by zero for the first half and then went oh we gotta do something or we're gonna die a lot we're gonna die all the way we can't do that we can't die all the way so you did see this sort of Tale of Two Cities of or tale of two seasons right first half of the season and second half of the season but all this to say when you add that up it informs the off-season strategy as it came to be through free agency through the draft we'll talk about how they address those deficiencies to move forward and really build this hype train of not just a contender in the division but a contender in the conference which means you've got a Super Bowl shot in terms of uh Blitz percentage this kind of matches up super well with a man heavy defense in short yardage they were 18th which again more reflects like a an approach to run defense and short yardage because again a lot of teams uh do like to Blitz a lot in short yarders they can get guys in the backfield they were about average in that uh but in third and medium and third and seven like true pass situations uh they were uh 42 Blitz rate which is 10th overall in the NFL and third medium and they were 53 and a half Blitz percentage on Third and long which was first they're coming they are playing man and they are sending pressure that is what the Lions do uh again A lot of times didn't work out super great but I do think they're going to run it back and try that again in terms of uh stunt percentage which they were second or sorry not second 22nd in terms of using stunts and I think that's more of a reflection on the blitz heavy nature of it is because when you're bringing five and six guys they all have Lanes they gotta hit you're not gonna stunt as much uh when you're bringing six bodies or else they run into each other so I think that that 20 second ranked in in stunt percentages is reflective of their Blitz heavy nature and I I get the sense that this is going to be like late 2000s Raven style of like you know what we're gonna do we know what we're gonna do beat us and if we lose that way we lose that way but they're gonna go out their way which is aggressive yeah and they tried to stack up players to support that nature of we're going to bring them in waves right and we're going to bring them right we're not going to sit them back we're going to try and force your hand on defense which is what this approach is we're gonna line up man on man we're going to bring pressure more than almost anybody else we talk about how they backed it off in the second half of the season they still ended up first in third and long in terms of how many times they were bringing a blitz so they just said well it didn't work but it didn't work in our mind because we didn't have the guys to do it let's go get guys to do it in terms of their offensive numbers and this is going to give a little bit more context for you know the overall EPA stats and everything like that not a very Zone heavy team they were 16th in outside Zone they were 24th and inside Zone which given the size of their offensive line that kind of surprised me a lot was that they didn't run a lot of inside Zone what did check out however was that they love Gap schemes they were 13th or tied for 13th in Duo they were fifth in power which again makes sense when you have a whole bunch of big body their offensive line is [ __ ] massive and if you can just cave down one side and you're pulling you know any either of the guards around the front side and you're just kind of using that that size to your advantage definitely makes sense they were sixth encounter again it's about caving in one side and pulling a guy around the difference between power and counter is basically just the track that the puller takes are they kicking out the end or are they wrapping up inside and kicking out a linebacker that's basically the main difference um and then draw which we see for teams that don't have mobile quarterbacks typically is low jerk off not the most mobile guy they're 25th in that and then pin and pull schemes which again umbrella term can mean a bunch of different things most popular pin and pull type play is going to be G lead they were about average in that off the top of my head um there was a g lead example that Demarcus Lawrence blew up in the Cowboys game on the goal line where that that had been such a successful play for them and then after the Cowboys game I noticed they started running a lot less because Demarcus and again Demarcus Lawrence is Demarcus Lawrence he literally beat Four Guys by himself and blew it up on the goal line and then I kind of saw them call that less and more so focused on power encounter but um they were very much a we are bigger and stronger than you type of offensive line it's not as much Zone it's more so just beating people up and um I think you know Jamal Williams when he was there was a perfect back for that now they have David Montgomery as well as Gibbs as well as actually they have like five running backs of the roster right now but they do have uh potentially an even better fit for it than Jamal Williams and David Montgomery and I think they're going to keep doing all of that but maybe be even more explosive yeah when I think about this in terms of the running piece of this and and the defense and sort of the tendency this is like Dan Campbell as a team personified oh 100 this is yeah I'm gonna line up one-on-one with you and say let's go both in the run like that's what he's asking is offensive lineman to do stand up and beat your guy you're not always going to get help we're not going to scheme it up real pretty you're gonna stand up and whoop his ass defense same thing Corner get up tight stand up there and tell them I'm gonna whoop your ass and that's how we're gonna win and if we win we're gonna win together and that's how we're going to lose if we lose it's like Dan Campbell took that and you don't often see that that reflection is like a straight line from the top down of Campbell saying both to his offense and his defense guess what this is how we're gonna play we're not hiding anything like right at you and little by little I think that it's it started to progress more in terms of results right like they still have heartbreaking defeats but they're having fewer of them every year and eventually all of these two and three point losses are going to stop happening and I think it is going to be in 2023 but we have seen tangible progression just by really embracing that culture and I think that's Dan Campbell's value one note on the Run game after seeing these numbers I am now more convinced that Jamir Gibbs is going to be a receiver that also plays running back and not a running back that plays receiver because a lot of the runs they run aren't Jamir Gibbs type of run plays yeah you know maybe if they want to get him involved in like the odd toss scheme here or you know maybe like G lead and try to try to spring it to the edge or something like that but um the fact that they don't run a lot of outside Zone and they don't run a lot of stuff that isn't just bashing people inside I do think that Jamir Gibbs is going to be mostly a third down piece for them and Dave Montgomery I think will overwhelmingly get all of the quote-unquote real rushing opportunities yeah early ota's back that up again we're recording this pretty early but um the early usage in the early reports out of a Detroit Camper Man Jamir Gibbs looks really good in the passing game and that's not a surprise for anybody that's studied them every new that was coming yeah but what they're gonna have to avoid is having him be an indicator right is if he's in the backfield don't worry about fitting the Run folks it's a pass that's what he's really good at and that's what they want to leverage they're going to have to run him out of some of those sets or find ways to do it I think Ben Johnson can do it and change it up enough so that it is not just a key for the defense when Gibbs is in the game that this is a pass of one type or another they are going to have to mix that up but I agree with you that Montgomery fits their profile like hand and glove when when he was signed away from the Bears you know I understood the barriers didn't necessarily want to pay him he went to Detroit and I was like oh oh they lost will you oh like yeah yeah man put him behind that offensive line he's going to enjoy it he's going to have big Bashers in front of him he thrives in that kind of environment like it is a very good move when we talk about scheme fit like this is scheme fit in a player and it'll be fascinating to see how that offense goes but I'm with you I think Gibbs is going to be used more in a motion and pass catching role than anything else and you're just gonna have to keep that from being a liability keep that from being a tell for the defense in terms of their passing offense overview it's it's kind of right down the middle of the Fairway yeah um you know they're 16th and play action percentage average time to throw 15th fastest again right down the middle of the Fairway air yards percentage meaning the percentage of golf's passing yardage that was through the air versus uh after the catch he was 26th in air yards percentage so you flip that the inverse of that would be their yards after catch percentage they were pretty high when it came to that like top 10 easily average depth of Target 25th again he really worked the short to intermediate game and just finding space which he's always kind of been that you know he came out of the air raid and Cal where they did a lot of that too it's always when he's been most comfortable is get it out quick and find Space Big Time throw percentage was 23rd again because they didn't stretch it down the field as much but all that being said yards per attempt because he was so efficient at finding guys that you know had leverage advantages or had good matchups and getting them the ball quickly and get it to them accurately in space so they could catch and run his yards per attempt was fifth at 8.1 so he didn't have to stretch the ball or stretch the field with the ball in order to have a high ypa he was just so efficient and so accurate and such a good decision maker that they were still able to get chunks of yardage and that's why there was such a good passing offense is it was like Jared Goff and Aman rossane Brown against the world and nobody could stop them it was going to sound insane and I forgive me for this when Brady had Edelman and Amendola and even further back it was Wes and it was like we need seven yards right now it was automatic and golf last year in particular in the second half of the year when he needed seven yards he got seven yards and again it wasn't flashy there wasn't a bunch of Big Time throws but efficiency wise he was unbelievable and considering that Ben Johnson is coming back and is going to allow him to do more of that plus occasionally taking some more shots of Jameson Williams when you get back from suspension I have every reason to believe this passing offense is going to be at least as good as last year and potentially way better and that is a terrifying thought I think what we're seeing in this particular offense is a sort of Vulcan mind meld between Ben Johnson and Jared Goff they are an extension of understanding this is what you do well therefore I'm going to call this receivers you need to support it this way and this is how we're going to win right we're going to have all these stats in the 20s air yards average depth of Target Big Time throw percentage We're not gonna ask Jared Goff to morph into a deep ball shot thrower like um we're just not going to do that we're going to say get it here on time on target be in the place you need to be as a receiver and let's go that's the way we're going to earn our way down the field and they became kind of a threshing machine at that I mean again they're you know passing EPA top of the league like top five of the league right and they got there through this formula because they're just like it does remind me of air raid right like how many Concepts there are in Airaid there's like six and any quarterback any receiver in the area needs to know the six Concepts those six can be run right ten different but we need to know the pillars the five or six pillars you've got to have them down right oiled like if this works all the rest of it works and that is the Lions offense like in a nutshell this is what we're gonna do we're gonna get really good at doing it requires the quarterback to do this and not this requires the receivers to do this and not be late and this is what we get and it's like the top I would say it's the top example of that in the league right now and it works shifting gears real quick we talked about Dan Campbell a little bit earlier and you know the culture that he's brought to the building we've talked about uh Brad Holmes many times on the show in terms of his attitude about drafting where he just says that's my guy I don't give a [ __ ] what you think that is my my target value be damned and there's a lot of picks that we I don't want to say disagree with but we definitely are like okay didn't see that coming but yeah Brad Holmes believes in his guys and I think that's a good quality for a GM to have like they don't he doesn't draft scared ever and I think overall just those two guys at the very top of the building have given the Lions a real identity for the first time in a long time and I think that trickles down into uh into a lot of the coaches and staff underneath them too yeah it feels like backbone right it feels like they set the tenor you know I can say and I can't think of how many times I would have said this about a Detroit GM and Coach pairing but I'm actually kind of glad that Ryan pulls and Maddie Rufus are taking a similar approach to their relationship in Chicago that they're literally following the lead set by Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell and again I can't think of a time in the past and certainly the recent past when I would go oh yeah do what the Lions jam and Coach are doing but right now they've established that sort of strong central line of focus they talked about it when they came in a lot of people didn't believe them that they were talking about culture and this is the way we're going to do things top to bottom it's going to be a handshake between the GM the coach everybody says that not that many teams are able to achieve it we're 3 now and they are Marching Right Down the Line Holmes if anything got a little bit looser with that strategy a little bit more sure of himself this year or maybe um you know his evaluations just diverged a little bit more from the rest of the league and he decided to stay and pick and it just looked worse because that difference was greater um but there's something to what they're doing and it's working you can see it in the roster and the overall build they've been stacking Talent now again along the same thing they haven't changed course usually teams that do that struggle right we're going to do this oh now we're going to change we're going to do this they commit they are committed of following the line and it's working coordinators that are helping out with the rest of that effort lions are a team that have one of their coordinators or position coaches designated as an assistant head coach that Scotty Montgomery their running back coach very experienced and well respected he holds the assistant head coach title we've talked a lot already about offensive coordinator Ben Johnson what a coup it was for them to keep him he definitely got head coaching interviews we talked about that as the season went on we said this guy is going to be a name in the head coaching circuit he took two or three of those interviews decided for whatever reason that he wanted to come back for one more year probably in Detroit and honestly I think that might have been the biggest day of their season oh yeah yeah like to keep that continuity of something that works so well and be able to keep that offensive coordinator quarterback connection working defensively defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is going to have a lot more guys to work with to try and up those numbers that were not good last year they were the Achilles heel of the Lions they're the reason they lost those eight games was really on the defense their offense was humming from early on and kept humming and they just again made changes to the defense to try and hold on their record got better but again they they can't start that slowly and that's going to be largely on Aaron Glenn special teams handled by Dave phipp and you know this is a good power structure in terms of other notable coaches that they have on offense Mark Brunell quarterbacks coach you got to give him a lot of credit for what he's been able to do with Jared Goff in concert with Ben Johnson so former Washington Husky QB he was the QB of the 91 National Championship team hit a 19-year NFL career I did not realize he played that long this is a guy that it was a starter in Jacksonville then became a clipboard holder and made that transition very successfully had some spot starts in that middle part of his career and then was clearly just a hat and clipboard guy at the end but that was like seven years at the tail end of his career he's seen it all you're not going to surprise him um played for Green Bay Jacksonville Washington New Orleans where he got a super world championship ring speaking of quarterbacks JT Barrett is an assistant QB coach Ohio State the Ohio State JT Barrett really I can't oh my God you're right I kid you not when did that happen uh it's new but again I thought it was uh thought it was worth bringing up now he played for and I didn't realize this Pittsburgh Seattle and New Orleans in his short career and he also was the QB of the Edmonton Elks who have an elite logo by the way oh best CFL if you're watching this Edmonton Elks I could use a hoodie it's really cool I'll definitely wear it during the pot he went to the state up north yeah it's true man that's so that's a good Poll for them because I always thought well as a player and as a prospect we always heard JT's like leadership was off the freaking charts I'm excited for that that's cool isn't it neat yeah that's why we do this section is there's there's just interesting things that happen around the league in terms of he's already coaching and he landed there I was gonna say he's only like 25 but he's very he's young he's he's learning from Brunel I'm sure he's learning from golf at this point yeah golf's been around longer than he has um so great start for him um Hank Fraley the offensive line coach doing a fantastic job um you know Fraley is an 11 and 11 year NFL that played mostly for the Eagles that's where many people were recognizing from and finished up his career with the Browns and Rams but is doing a tremendous job with that very young offensive line in Detroit that we talked about yeah they're all huge but they're also all like under 25 or you know just barely turned 26. this is going to be the stalwart front that Detroit builds its everything around for a while and they invested very heavily High picks to do it but they've got their guys now and their that stability is going to come to plague the rest of that division much like Pittsburgh offensive line did for years right it's like you're just not getting through those guys they've played together they're really skilled and fraley's in charge of that unit and then Antoine Randall L is their wide receivers Coach and he's got some tools to work with we've talked about Jamison Alan Ross same brown we're going to talk about some more folks they picked up but he's a former big ten offensive player of the year nine-year NFL veteran with Pittsburgh and Washington on the defensive side experience experience experience I got John Fox is a senior defensive assistant say former three-time head coach Panthers Broncos and bears as an assistant yeah like okay sure if you can take all that experience and get into your room and just let him float yeah say what you want about him as a head coach but like he's been around the league forever and he can help problem solve for younger coaches that it well not to get too much on its engine but the NFL is a people business you have to know how to handle people John Fox has handled a lot of people and a lot of different personalities he's going to help a lot of these younger coaches and that's what you hear about Fox like even when Fox got hired with Chicago and I wasn't wild about the move because I felt like it was more it was a return to stability he was there to do that it felt more like a placeholder move and that's really what it was they needed all that but when I was asking people why why why like you have no idea how well John Fox is respected he knows everybody he goes to the owner's meeting he's shaking hands he's worked with everybody he's been around everybody respects him he is a he is a safe pick in terms of a head coach and you know the Bears needed safety at that time but to be able to add a guy like that to just have a sort of amorphous title and let him float around and do what he wants it's it's a benefit to this team and then Dre Bly is coaching their cornerbacks he too is an 11 and 11-year NFL vet Rams lions and 49ers so an experienced staff a staff with players that understand players uh both young and old really neat mix of experience one of the reasons I think this team is having sort of what looks to be sustainable success yeah because they they're a player friendly staff because a lot of their staff were players it's a huge huge component of what they do you know Dan Campbell himself former player so they they really believe in that and they really believe in again the people side of the business because how can you coach guys that don't that you don't know how to relate to that you can't communicate with like it's a massive massive part of coaching is being able to relate to these guys so it's I I really love that approach now given all of that information all of it that we've talked about so far the scheme information the coaching philosophies a little bit of the Personnel talk we've had their overall stats all of that when looking at The Supporting Cast that Goff has around him and and the particular weapons he has to throw to and keep in mind small tangent uh Goff is a good quarterback yes is he an elite quarterback no will he ever be an elite quarterback probably not but I think it became clear especially over the last half of the season that he's a good quarterback I would never qualify him as a bust I mean the guy went to a a Super Bowl and B went to a second team and led a top five passing EPA off I was like he's good there are top prospects coming out now like CJ Stroud whose main comp that we see from the media is Jared Goff and they mean it as a compliment he's good but what really makes Jared Goff go are the weapons that he has around him because it's very much a yak spacing base offense and so looking at say almond Ross Saint Brown who right now on Underdog is going 14.5 adps wide receiver 10 because typically receivers fly off the board in in basketball format he has extraordinarily high expectations as a slot receiver that's getting drafted as the number one option on the team that is not a common thing around the NFL but if there was ever a slot receiver that could pay that off short of Cooper cuff himself it's going to be amarase brown no modern day bias at all there of course but you look at if we're going for Value play Jameson Williams is going at 99.3 ADP right now he's wide receiver 49. yeah predominantly because you're not getting him for the first six weeks of the season but guess what there's still 11 other games and he was arguably the best receiver Prospect in his class he has game changing ability he is more than one year removed from that ACL now and the suspension that he got like it's not like he's out with an injury he's come back with an injury like yeah he's gonna be good to go he's gonna have fresh legs and he's gonna get in there in week seven or week eight whatever whatever the game is that he's coming back yep against some of these Corners that you know I mean I did a month and a half you're a little bit banged up and all of a sudden this kid comes in and runs four two six or just tears your face off Jameson Williams I think is going way too low right now and in every single basketball draft that I've done I'm getting him typically later than he should go because I think people forget that he's coming back and in the important part of the season the back half of the Season where you're really trying to make a run he's going to slide in there and be an immediate producer well it's best ball so really just whoever gets points that week you're gonna get it but like this is a guy who can get 20 points plus any given week and you're going to get him for the last 11 games for that huge push towards those prize pools and he's going as like a wide receiver five right now I don't know like I get I I would fully endorse going after Aman early because I love almond raw but if I want value Jameson Williams staring me in the face yeah I think James Williams a lot of people are thinking suspension and yeah you do have to get back into game shape but the point you make about it not being injury based is huge it's not like well his his window for availability starts at week seven but he's probably not going to be great till week 10. I I don't think that's going to be the case I think within those first three weeks you're going to see a big week out of him because he's a big play wide receiver and he showed that when he was healthy came on the field again he's even further removed from that injury which is significant for the position he plays and you know it is a gamble but it's a pretty low not that much no it's a pretty low input gamble to take and I mean David Montgomery you know is rb28 that so that's what really gets me and I'm like get Gibbs is already 14 right now like he's flying off the board early and I'm like did you not see what the the allocation was for Jamal and Swift Last like it's the same roles yes like he Gibbs is playing the yandere Swift role he's gonna get a lot of passing down work he's gonna get a lot of catches yeah but when they're inside the red zone Dave Montgomery is getting the ball yeah like 100 he's getting the ball like Gibbs didn't even get all the goal line touches or even most of the goal line Touches at Bama Montgomery scoring all the freaking touchdowns and again when it comes to any fantasy format like touchdowns are king and he's going let's see Gibbs is going at 39.6 so he's going like early fourth round right now and uh Dave Montgomery is going 87.7 like 50 picks later when he's going to at minimum get a much higher Peaks which is what matters in basketball you don't have to set the lineup every week yeah it's really just whoever's peaking higher he's going to get much higher Peaks and also probably be much more consistent too like Gibbs is going to have monster games you know we're pulling in catches and he's ripping off huge gains and everything like that but like I the [ __ ] is he going in the fourth round as a passing down specialist even one that we love yeah when he is going to get no low Red Zone work like almost none I don't I don't get it well and people are underrating Montgomery because of the stink of Chicago yeah and the fact that they couldn't for the most part get their running game together before last year but he did so much with almost nothing in front of him and now he goes and gets to play behind that power blocking young stalwart offensive line in Detroit like your eyes should be the size of saucers for what he's going to produce he's a very talented back and he's going to get the touchdowns like he's gonna have monster games all by himself with that that level of blocking and Detroit's commitment to the type of running he does he's gonna he's gonna open a lot of eyes this year I look at it this way if Gibbs gets you 40 yards between the 20s to get into the red zone and he does it on two catches sure which it's not even full PPR it's at PPR so he's getting five points right well when you're inside the 20 if Montgomery gets seven yards a touchdown he's getting more points yep what are we doing here I don't know I don't know that's gonna happen over and over again Montgomery the reason that we put him as high on the list as we did is because he never really got a chance in Chicago to do the full thing and even though you still saw it and now he gets between scheme coaching and the offensive line in front of him and the workload he's going to get the amount of touches he's going to get because you're right the roles haven't changed the offensive coordinators are saying the players in those roles have changed but we know what he's going to do yeah we know how often they're going to go to him he's really I can't wait like people like oh but he was a bear now he's lying I'm like I don't care he's a really good player I liked him coming out I love this situation and people are really going to get to see what he is now and I think they're gonna be very pleasantly surprised and golf himself is qb17 right now like which I get it I understand like there's a lot of quarterbacks that have a lot of Mobility now that are going to be more attractive from a fantasy perspective but geograph's not the 17th best quarterback in the NFL like not even close and he's has better weapons this year once Jameson comes back another year of Ben Johnson ideally a better defense is going to get off the field more like it's it's weird that the Lions offense is somehow being underrated at least yeah at least at least here on Underdog but it is and so after being fourth in the league yeah and I think people just kind of again don't believe they're like lions ah it's Gotta Be Fool's Gold fourth no yes it's I don't know real football and fantasy football analysis can sometimes just be wildly different completely diametrically opposed but in this case you're looking for offense Detroit's a great place to go that means if you're playing on Underdog like picking Lions players is not like oh well I guess I'll pick him despite the fact that he's alive I would pick him because he's a lion because that offense hums you got to get the right one and value's a thing but there's a lot of choices there uh once again by the way if you skip through the start of the show and you missed our wonderful ad read which Underdog so graciously paid us to do uh hi Nick I know you're watching this uh promo code bootleg will match your deposit up to 100 if you happen to be into basketball drafts and want to draft some Lions players and get value um oh wow I just checked our cameras the sun has been going down let me take a second to reset those images so that people can actually see yeah we're probably who the hell is on the screen more shadowy yeah all right I'm back uh for people that are listening to just the audio version of the show they have no idea what just happened I just reset all the cameras when we say Dynamic lighting we mean dynamic uh let's get into free agency losses by the way because there was a lot of talent that left the building it wasn't all sunshine and Roses this off season although I would say a lot of their losses were expected and accepted losses but losses nonetheless feel free to take us through it yeah in terms of free agency again they have a plan they looked at the results that they got last year and said okay we need changes in certain places specifically the defensive backfield um and then there were other players right are we going to keep Jamal Williams after his big season that we created or are we going to go out and get somebody that we think is even better so in terms of the defensive backfield DeSean Elliott at safety you played 76 percent of their snaps whenever you lose 76 percent of your snaps in a unit like it's it's notable Jeff acuda they decided they wanted to move on from he goes to the Falcons he played almost 70 percent of the snaps Mike Hughes another cornerback like 50 of their snaps like at this point you're literally carving out a large percentage of the snaps out of the sort of five primary secondary players primary secondary yeah it makes sense following myself at the moment but lots of changes and then you know Amani I always want to say Armani and that's what screws me up it's not it's not the last name Amani or Warrior there we go signs with the Giants he was 42 percent of their snaps but again was a key rotational piece in the secondary form so that's massive change in one unit DJ chart um heads back to the Panthers or heads to the Panthers again 50 of their snaps in the receiving core pretty significant Jamal Williams we talked about and then the center anytime you move a center from an offensive line Evan Brown played almost 70 percent of the snaps he's now likely going to be in contention for the starting role for the Seahawks uh but again something you have to replace but it felt most of these felt like I don't want to say planned but expected and we have a plan for what we're going to do if we don't resign them as opposed to some teams in some years feels like I don't know we tried really hard now we don't have them and now I don't know what we're going to do and we're forced into a draft pick or forced to overspend in free agency none of these felt like that it felt like we've decided that we want to make a change in the secondary that means a lot of these players who are nearing the end of their contract or that we could trade are going to go but we know what we're doing in particular with Evan Brown I mean their their plan is Frank ragnell when he comes back that's why Brown played so much because Ragnarok got hurt but the problem is their plan when ragno gets hurt was Evan Brown so it's it's another thing they're going to have to have a plan for if ragno unfortunately you know knock on wood goes down again he has had some durability issues the last few years but you know Evan Brown was a was a good solution for that and we'll see what he does in Seattle as for that Jamal Williams stung for me just from a locker room perspective is like he's ultimate locker room guy um you know that was a that was a good pickup for the Saints to kind of carry on the Mark Ingram Legacy of just always having like a juice guy in the running back room um shark I think was an acceptable loss just because again you got Marvin's back Jameson's going to be back up after six weeks like in terms of the role that was being filled they arguably already have an upgrade in the building there so that that made sense and the corners to be perfectly frag here like I don't want to I don't want to be too mean but they tried to run the scheme they wanted to run with those guys and they couldn't get it done and so they they moved on they wanted to find guys that they feel could hold up better in man coverage we'll see if that comes to pass because they are relying on some young dudes to get it done but I I think they have a pretty good shot of of having better fits in the secondary now than what they had last year in terms of who they brought back though uh Alex anzaloni that one surprised me a little bit not because I don't like angeloni but more so I just I know I know that they could improve a lot at linebacker over anceloni and it's it's funny I mocked Jack Campbell them in the second round um they ended up taking him in the first but like the reason why they took Campbell is the reason why I thought they would which is like they couldn't get better than Alex angeloni now they got both we'll see what happens they also brought back Brock Wright that brought back Isaiah bugs Will Harris well Harris by the way is a very solid kind of everything uh DB for them you can line them up in a whole bunch of different spots so you know bringing him back at a pretty pretty cheap contract at two and a half Millions good for them I mean they signed a whole bunch of dudes the list on the screen right now is probably very very long and multi-page but those are kind of the the main ones uh big V's back Craig Reynolds back Charles Harris uh bringing him back at three and a half million like for what he gives them as a pass rusher that seemed weird weird good I mean like yeah good for the Lions like I was like you couldn't get more three and a half but like he's he's a really good player for them um yeah overall like they they kept a lot of important rotational pieces or role players for that roster which going into the off season was a pretty big priority for them yeah find somebody that loves you like the Lions love angeloni they love them some Alex hamzaloni and I was a little bit surprised when they resigning but you think about it free agency occurs before the draft and they go and resign angelony not end of the world money it's not huge I mean he gets rewarded he gets six million um he is 29 years old but then they get the opportunity in the draft to get the linebacker that is likely The Heir Apparent and Jack Campbell possibly the immediate immediate upgrade and that's an embarrassment to riches right that's what good teams do we have two options now we might be able to play them together one might you know back the other one up and then replace him he goes off that contract um but they sort of did one to make sure they had bird in the hand and then oh look Jack Campbell's sitting there we really like him we're gonna go ahead and pick him and now we're solid solid at that position in terms of uh outside editions third party editions I love the Emmanuel Mosley pickup at 6 million really good value for a corner that fits what they like aggressive man cover Corners yeah Dave Montgomery is you know locker room is is a tough thing to replace to Jamal Williams but in terms of like on field ability Dave Montgomery I think is a better running back yeah than Jamal Williams not like by a huge amount but he is and also a great locker room guy I'm not saying he's not a good locker room guy not a vocal leader necessarily but uh you know do as I do kind of guy yeah super strong you saw uh Graham Glasgow they brought in for a pretty pretty cheap under three million dollar deal uh to kind of fit into that offensive line room Christian Covington still kicking around after all these years love that for him yeah Rice's own uh see Chauncey Gardner Johnson that was one where I was kind of like what like how did how did they manage to get him for six and a half like I get it's a one year deal but six and a half million yeah for one of the better kind of Flex DBS super versatile has been super effective in multiple systems for multiple teams we all know about his legendary trash talkers um and they had a lot of losses again in that secondary to replace he was still available but again it's that um almost like the deal you mentioned for Charles Harris where you're like well it's good for the Lions but like how it was so weird yeah it was so weird I'm like nobody could beat six and a half million and so he took the one-year deal for cheap because again he wants to get a monster one next off season but like he's a good player like he's he's probably only going to be in Detroit one year I think is a good way to put it because he's going to get a bigger deal somewhere else but like that's a great pickup for them uh Marvin Jones back in Detroit again solid stable older veteran and very important now that Jamison Williams super important we would we would have a different outlook for the first six weeks of the Lions offense if they hadn't made that signing which they originally thought was like going to be like fourth contributor or primary back because the guy brought in to guide Jamison Williams right that's what he was gonna do now he's going to be the starter for the first six weeks and they really shouldn't miss too much of a beat Izzy is explosive of course not you know can he be as productive in the offense that we outlined at the top right quick strike accurate be where you need to be he's already been there he knows how to do it like they're going to be able to miss less of a beat if any in the first six weeks and then add that explosive element on the top and Williams comes back it didn't feel like a key pickup at the time now feels like an extremely key pickup and then uh they brought in cam Sutton as well at 11 million because if there is one team that really loves like hybrid guys that could play safety or play corner or play nickel and you can just kind of find a spot obviously cam Sun's gonna play nickel for them because that's his best spot but like they love guys they can just move all over the place and he is the poster child for that uh really really good pickup for them this secondary is really versatile really really versatile and we'll get into some of the young guys they they grabbed later but the secondary they have now is orders of magnitude a better fit for their type of defense and that's a big reason why I think they're gonna have such a huge jump is because for once they got the dudes yeah they're upgrading their jimmies and Joe's right and so they are they decided are we going to flex our system to fit our Personnel are we going to flex our Personnel to fit our system they chose the latter they said look we're gonna you know for the most part when these guys are ending their contracts we're not going to re-up them who do they obviously trade but and then they went out and got these guys in free agency we're going to talk now about who they got in the draft but they decided to upgrade the Jimmy's and Joe's they said we like our system but we need different guys with different skill sets to run it and they went out and got you know those three defensive backs we just talked about those guys are physical all of them they're physical and they're going to fit in the system very very well what I'm really fascinated by is who is on third down going to be in the slot is it gonna be sudden is it gonna be Garner Johnson is it gonna be Brian Branch yeah is it gonna be star Thomas like another one of those rookies we said they drafted guys that they they want in their system even though star Thomas played outside corner in college he was really really good at it he's built like one of those like thicker physical nickels and when we shot him the shrine bowl like he was he played really well inside like he was matching up against say flowers and he wanted all the smoke and he held up uh you know Demario Douglas really good slot receiver like held up I have no idea who's gonna be the slot Defender for them and I think it's a good problem to have they have literally four guys that can do it yeah it's going to be fascinating to see how Glenn and his assistant coaches like sort this out through training camp Flex it learn into what those guys can do super well and then make sure to pull the right levers to get them in there on those key Downs get the right players in the right places that's a coach's job but they have a lot of assets to work with and it's going to be fun to track that mix and match and see where guys really Thrive or don't um but they have a lot more chances I think to hit um with all the matchups that they've created by the changeover we talk about team building folks this is what we're talking about we're talking about going out and like buying yourself chances by getting better players that fit your scheme and mesh with what your coaches want to do and the lions are just Master classing it right now they're just amassing assets and going we'll figure it out because these guys are better and they fit us more closely than the guys we just got rid of but you know a third draft now for this power structure the Lions round one pick 12. Jamir Gibbs out of Alabama we were surprised let's just understate it we were surprised the surprise got Excel or not accelerated um Amplified yes by the press conference after the draft 100 percent when they said that they well they said it without saying it that they had Gibbs as rb1 in the class over Bichon yeah which again it's Brad Holmes he's going to take his guys he loved he likes who he likes that stunned me mostly too because even if they wanted Gibbs as a primary receiver or let's just say receiving threat regardless of position s bichon's still an amazing receiver Bichon is good enough they split them out wide at Texas on purpose a lot yeah and his average depth of Target was like six yards greater than anybody else including Gibbs in this class so to make that statement on top of all of bijan's obvious running ability was something yeah um and then the second pick they have in round one six picks later at 18 linebacker Jack Campbell out of Iowa we talked a lot about Campbell pre-draft we both liked him I think we both had him as I'll be one um we talked uh with Matt Bowen notable Hawkeye alumni who was on the Pod specifically about Jack Campbell what he had seen from Campbell in his time in the program and over four years the kind of growth the camel's got great size tremendous movement ability way better hands I think than most middle linebackers that size like deserve to have really really good player who we feel excellent about moving forward and we think is going to be a great Pro round it it almost sort of alternates for me with the Lions draft like Jamir Gibbs was the ha not a bad player but at 12 and then Campbell at 18. okay a little bit early but love it right absolutely a Dan Campbell guy no relation by the way uh and then round two pick 34 sham laporta again out of Iowa you know I understand his role as the pass catching tight end but I was lower on the Porta than a lot of other people so I was like huh great huh and this is kind of the way the Lions draft went and then round two pick 45 one of my favorite players in the draft safety Brian Branch listed as a safety but played a ton of nickel star in Alabama another Super versatile defensive back that they're going to have to place in that secondary is going to learn great things from Chauncey Carter Johnson in terms of playing that versatile D like almost Nobody Does that role better right now in the NFL um and Brian Branch comes into that situation already having a ton of experience and skills but being able to pick up a lot of things predictably from a player that has been doing it in the pros great fit round 368 this is the one that this is a lightning rod pick for a lot of lions fans Hendon hooker the quarterback from Tennessee who is coming back from an injury and won't play uh you know early in the season at all and again he's a backup he's not going to be competing for starting reps that's clear but a lot of people thought is this a signal is this the error parent to go off is this a backup that they just like the value of I particularly like the player um yes he's 25 yes he's coming off an injury but Lance in the perfect spot doesn't have to play right away has the ability to stretch the field with players like Jameson Williams yes there's a scheme of adjustment between Tennessee's offense and what Ben Johnson's running or whatever they're going to run when Ben Johnson leaves but overall felt like a really good value investment for me lasted that long and they need a player in that role which is qb2 they went out and got Hendon hooker one of the better ones available in this draft uh their other pick in round three 96 overall Broderick Martin Western Kentucky big wide body in the middle of the defensive line he is the one and a half Gap plugger you're not running on him um he's a war Daddy yeah sure that's well great description it's sometimes or daddy sure there's some reps where it's like okay you're way too big to get blown off the ball like that but man he's when he's right like there was a rep against Auburn where he just ragged Off song just completely ragged on him like okay just keep doing that like line up next to Ali McNeil follow him wherever he goes uh and learn from him because well I don't know it leaves smaller now yeah he's leaned out and focusing on pass rush uh which is again one of the things we don't necessarily touch on in these videos is like veterans who've been in the system who've made a change or have a different Outlook different position coach have changed their body type and he definitely fits in that category so Liam's not a nose anymore they're they're basically turning him into a Ferrari yeah it's gonna be terrifying yeah I can't wait and you know The Pick of a guy like Broderick Martin makes that a little bit easier right he's going to fill some of those snaps she used to have as as the plugger and he still has that ability uh now I'm talking about elim but um look we're going to take some pressure off there's a little bit less pressure on you to make this move because that guy's got those early down snaps round five no round four picks into round five pick 152 uh offensive attack Kobe swordsdal from William and Mary who Duke worked with had really good things to say about Diddy I think so I believe he was a Duke client and then round six this is the one that absolutely slays me it's apparently all the teams in the NFC North beside Chicago are going to pick late round receivers that I flat out freaking love and they go and get Antoine Green from North Carolina who if you were looking at you know early sneak peek at Drake May tape or uh you were looking at Josh Downs you caught some really good raps from Antoine green big tall fast long wide receiver sound familiar Lions fans yeah this guy's gonna slide in behind Jamison Williams be his understudy um you know maybe a practice squad guy as around six wide receivers I don't think they risk that I I bet they don't when people see him in the preseason that's what I'm saying like I don't think he's gonna make practice squads yeah I I had a lot of love for Antoine green if you can't tell because he was underrated for his size his hands ability his route running his speed did he have a great diversity of routes no but a lot of college wide receivers don't and on the routes he ran he was pretty eye-opening yes he was working with one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football doesn't matter he's still got to run around still got to beat the defensive back still got to make the catch and he did all that um I would say regularly it's very very high on Antoine green and for them to get him in the sixth a little sad that it was the Lions happy for green you know it's great to get drafted but uh between him and the Packers last pick I was like come on did I have to have to get the overall report card here kind of taking in the summary of the information that I hope you guys have enjoyed so far today uh and this is front office coaching offense and defense we're going to keep it simple four categories and you can either go up you can go down or you can kind of just maintain Flatline obviously the more UPS the better front office we're going up mainly because they had another strong draft overall again you and I disagree in terms of some of the placement of where they picked them not not who they pick it's more where they pick them but at the same time if you just kind of flip around branch and Campbell and Gibbs and you just kind of move it around in your brain it's still they're good players who makes great sense like who cares at this point who cares they're good yeah that's all that matters they're going to be contributors so yes front office we're going up even though they got so heavily criticized for where they took guys it's not like they took bad players no whatever uh coaching stable Steady As She Goes we are huge believersion Dan Campbell so we're going neither up nor down it's it's the same it's stable uh offense up because adding weapons and eventually hopefully getting Jameson Williams back I would be very surprised if this offense is somehow worse than last year and they were already really good I know it's setting the bar very high they're gonna be better they have every piece every important piece coming back they have their you know play caller coming back they have Jared Goff who is a good quarterback and they they have even more Talent eventually toward the back after the year they're going to be very explosive they're going to be even better and then defense also I mean it's hard to be worse but they're gonna be better you know they have more secondary players that fit what they want to do uh their linebacking core is improved by adding in Campbell their pass rush is still as deep as ever their interior should also be deeper and better I don't think it's even possible to be worse but I would be stunned if they somehow were the same so overall we're looking at three ups and the one kind of even Keel is Dan Campbell who himself is already a good coach Stellar report card probably one of the better ones that we're going to see during this entire Series yeah would have changed significantly probably on two fronts if Ben Johnson had left that would have been a coaching drop off and just an adjustment or change not that the new coach couldn't have gotten the offense humming again but expecting them to have it performing at Fourth best into the overall in the NFL is probably not reasonable with any change but he stays so again that keeps the coaching line you know stable and the offense is you already know what you're doing you add some really interesting and fun pieces for even more diversity makes up a little bit for the loss of Jameson Williams through the first six weeks they should be able to hold steady it's not like we're you know downgrading them in all those games because oh they only had one receiver and now he's gone like that's not the case and then on defense yeah there's nowhere to go but up it's a very low bar but you added a couple of our favorite players on defense in the entire draft Jack Campbell Bryant Branch you went out and made made smart moves to again retool your secondary to a sort of more physical presence more physical sort of Man Press presence yeah there's gonna be Improvement there and when you're talking about a report card that looks like that where coaching is stable and everything else is up and you already did pretty well last year you can start to understand the hype that's building around Alliance this year looking at ceiling and floor each one of us kind of picks a ceiling for winds that we see in a floor for winds that we see my floor for them is eight which I know sounds low but really the floor is building in the contingency of injury injury you know so if golf goes down and hooker has to play before he's ready like that can cause legitimate problems if you know some of their free agents they brought into US ostensibly save them uh get hurt and the defense doesn't get better because of that it can cause a lot of problems like injury is kind of the only way I think they get to eight because I think they're too talented and they're too well coached to get any any lower than that and my ceiling is at 12 which I I talked about earlier because I do think that they could legitimately compete for a high seed in the NFC is it a more conservative ceiling than a lot of other people have them at yes fully acknowledge that would I be like totally surprised if they ripped off more wins than that no but at the same time I'm trying to be realistic in my optimism knowing that they have a very tough stretch in the first six games that they're not gonna have Jameson Williams like they have some really really tough opponents in those first six weeks and so I'm anticipating that if they go 500 in the first six games they only have a you know a breathing room of two losses the rest of the year for them to be able to hit 12. that's again it's tough even for a team like them it's tough so I went with 12 pretty much solely because of the Jameson Williams suspension because he I think he is such a big factor for them interestingly enough you had them even lower at 11. yeah I have them at 11 but I I think it's like a really good strong solid 11 and I know that sounds a little bit weird I think they could win 11 games and win the division oh so overall you feel like the NFC North is going to be kind of a street fight I think it's going to be a little bit more like it's AFC cousin where that all the teams got stronger um you can argue that the Packers you know made a major change but again they at least stayed the same and they won you know was it not nine games nine games nine games somewhere around there yeah right so you know this is a team that is gonna be in a fight every week has a a lot of important games in the first six weeks overall can't dig itself a hole um but I feel like they might drop you know three and then that would be three the rest of the way to get to 11. that feels reasonable they could still be like in a tie going into the last week for the top of the division and win it with 11 wins it is an improvement from what they won last year they were in a lot of close games we'll see how those fall look could they have the sort of you know Freaky Friday experience and win all their close games and come out like last year's Vikings and be at 13 wouldn't surprise me a bit with the level of talent but they do have a long way to go on defense and predicting 12 or 13 wins it's really rarefied air in a long season and it would mean like a worse to first performance for their defense that's a lot to ask no matter how many improvements have been made I'm making the prediction of 11 based on their defense was on the floor if they come to the middle and the offense stays anywhere in the top ten you're going to improve a couple of wins and you might win your division my floor is the same as you at eight um and that's really just injury to key players is the only way I can see them you know regressing and it would only be a regression of one win from where they were last year overall I see a lot of improvement for the Lions and I think they're going to compete be competing for the division title this year for reference those first six games they're playing are at Chiefs week one uh hosting the Seahawks who are not a pushover at all in fact I'd say the Seahawks are a very very tough opponent uh hosting the Falcons way scrappier than they're giving credit for uh at the Packers playing at Lambo is going to be like even without Aaron Rodgers there it always is you know watch the Packers episode yesterday and we'll explain why like they're a better team than give credit for uh hosting the Panthers again super ultra Scrappy NFC South team that will run the absolute [ __ ] out of the ball um it's that's a tougher game it's going to be a big test to their defense earlier huge test for specifically that run defense also Bryce young massive upgraded quarterback and their receiving core even though they lost DJ more like they got mango in the second round like they they still got weapons there it's not gonna be an easy game uh and then they finally get some relief in week six going to Tampa um which is probably their quote unquote easiest game in that first six but like that's that's a tough stretch yeah a tough stretch like not a bunch of world beaters but not pushovers whatsoever yeah I could see them coming out of that four and two really easily I can also see this coming scenario yeah but I could see them coming out of that two and four also really easy right that line is Razor thin and that's going to have some effect they're not going to win or lose it in the first six weeks but if they come out of that say one in five it would be a really tough hole to dig themselves out of and our predictions are gonna sort of have to adjust doesn't mean they can't compete down the stretch and be really competitive still get themselves into the wild card that kind of thing but it would be a rough start for a team that's got really high expectations and then loses a bunch in the first six weeks it would be difficult there's just a lot of people and again I say this is somebody who's a big believer in the Lions there's a lot of people that are saying like oh yeah they're gonna go five and one in the first six weeks and I'm like did you pay attention to the Falcons and the Panthers last year like I get it the records were the records but yeah watch them and I I'm a lot better than you think the caveat there is if everything works yeah if all the defensive upgrades work if only McNeil is indeed in the best shape of his life not just the off season right if everything hits sure it'd go five and one I wouldn't be terribly shocked with that I'd be pleasantly surprised that they were that good that early but that's it's a long way from where they were last year again this is about potential and projection and there's a lot of it there there's reason for the optimism but it's still optimism you gotta prove it on grass yeah it's a good team that's what we're trying to say it's a good team but let's just let's calm down a little bit just a little bit like 12 wins totally fine 14 okay come on guys uh anyway yeah if you're Alliance fan you probably already tuned out a couple minutes ago because I know we're just all on hype right now we're trying to temper expectations a little bit but for everybody else make sure to come back tomorrow we're doing a deep dive on the Vikings uh and then we have an NFC North overall kind of wrap-up show where we talk about the division as a whole predictive Vision winners uh predicting you know Award winners from the division all that kind of stuff so lots more to come and then we got seven more divisions after this we are rolling from here for the next two months hope you guys enjoyed this and uh yeah we'll see you back here tomorrow care [Music] [Music]

Channel: Bootleg Football

Views: 83,236

Keywords: nfl, lions, bootleg football, brett kollmann, e.j. snyder, nfc north

Id: 6aT2jYeof90

Length: 75min 36sec (4536 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 14 2023