The Future Of Vertical Farming

in the last video we identified energy consumption as the primary barrier to plant factories having a big impact on the world and learned how vital improving absolute yield is to improving their energy efficiency we also looked at a number of ways the future vertical farms can boost yield lower their energy consumption and take advantage of cheaper cleaner electricity but when will these improvements happen where will they happen first and how far can the improvements go wink whitbeck vertical farming to change the world [Music] [Applause] there's no single point in time where this technology becomes viable to grow everything everywhere the economic viability of the industry will vary by crop location at any given time let's start with phase one crops phase one is already well underway in Japan for instance but just because it's viable there doesn't mean it's viable everywhere we can estimate where this industry will make the most economic sense by looking at what percentage of vegetables our country produces is a ratio of its total vegetable consumption countries that import a high percentage of their vegetables probably do so because producing it locally is difficult and expensive resulting in high market prices we also need to consider the local cost of electricity as it's one of the fundamental costs for plant factories high electricity prices would make food produced in vertical farms prohibitively expensive taking the two factors together we can produce this Mount given that Japan has the most mature vertical farming industry we can use it as a control and ask which countries have similar or favourable economics the map shows a very promising picture countries similar in color or greener than Japan are likely to have the same or better opportunities in population terms 66% of the world have a more favorable economic environment than Japan with a further 29% having at least similar economics in the green regions phase one crops are likely to have a high profit potential right now on an environmental note however this analysis assumes current energy production and could be expected to incur a carbon cost at least with today's energy mix though given phase one's relatively small scale and energy requirements this carbon cost is low earlier I gave an estimate the phase two would require approximately two and a half times the energy of Phase one let's model this energy requirement into the best current vertical farms if the economics are is calculated based to crops a more or less viable right now although profits on non premium products will be very slim however if we situated the vertical farm in the green region his profitability would be much better in fact we are already seeing the emergence of phase two crops such as cucumbers tomatoes leaving strawberries being produced commercially in these regions that said expect to see a high emphasis remain on leafy greens for now as the profitability is much better if phase two continues it costs and becomes ubiquitous worldwide we will start to see significant global freshwater savings in the next ten years at this point the global benefits of vertical farms become a lot more tangible still the energy problem only becomes bigger if Phase two farms reach a global scale while it's not a risk to global energy capacity the carbon cost may be prohibitive if renewable sources aren't used phase three will have the greatest global impact but it's also the hardest to achieve for this technology a significant part of phase three production would be staple crops such as rice and wheat current production of these crops already benefit from a massive economy of scale and have small profit margins they are also classed as commodities as such there is little benefit from the high quality product that vertical farms can achieve staple crops store well thus neutralizing the freshness value that vertical farms provide additionally staple crops are generally tall which hurts the growing density advantage and plant factories however the biggest barrier of all is the 30 times greater energy requirement compared to leafy greens with all these obstacles it's worth asking if phase 3 is even remotely feasible if it is what would it take to make phase 3 viable well there's no reason a vertical farm couldn't grow a significant economy scale surprisingly commodity crops ability to keep may actually be an advantage for vertical farms not a hinderance plant density and large energy costs are much bigger problems to make phase three profitable the energy cost per kilo must be greatly reduced let's assume that in order to be profitable energy costs can be no more than 25% of retail price rice is the largest provider of global human calories let's use that as an example in the u.s. in 2016 rice had an average retail price of $1 52 per kilo that gives a maximum energy cost of 38 cents per kilo we will model a yearly output equivalent to a large vertical bomb at 1 million kilograms per year the state-of-the-art techno in Japan produces one kilogram of lettuce for 5.7 kilowatt hours of electricity at a cost of 11 cents per kilowatt-hour one kilogram of lettuce cost 63 cents of energy per kilo a study of plant biopharmaceutical suitability determined that rice grown under artificial light required 31 times more energy per kilo than lettuce this is where the 30 times energy factor of Phase three comes in if we multiply the energy cost per kilo of lettuce by the energy factor required for rice we get an energy cost per kilo of 20 dollars this is a massive 52 times larger than our 38 cents max energy cost it's such a huge factor that it seems insurmountable but a closer inspection of the rice experiment reveals some opportunities plant factories have had over a decade to create the perfect conditions for lettuce if the same can be done for rice then we will be able to significantly shrink the 31 times energy factor so let's take a look at that before we go any further remember that increases an absolute yield for a fixed energy input translates to an energy saving for example a 33% yield increase translates to a 25% energy saving all yield increases will be calculated as energy savings for this analysis to start with a much denser crop needs to be used field grown rice is typically over a meter tall plant factories will need to use a dwarf variant of rice plants both short in height and high harvest index are essential if the edible mass percentage of the rice plant can be increased to achieve just half the improvement seen in lettuce then we can expect a 23% energy reduction in the experiments rice was grown under 400 parts per million of co2 or normal levels increasing the co2 concentration to 1,200 parts per million we can expect the 26% energy saving further optimization of the nutrient and light recipe will likely increase the yield and shrink the cultivation period saving a further 20% the rice experiment was conducted at 25 to 27 degrees Celsius higher temperatures increased the growth rate of rice with 27 point five to twenty nine point five degrees C being optimal the faster growth rate shortens the cultivation period and allows for a 12.5% energy reduction it's also used 12 hours of light and 12 hours of dark other experiments have found that shorter hours of daylight such as 10 actually encourage early flowering this not only reduces the daily energy requirement but further reduces the cultivation period saving as much as 20% we are now sixteen times our maximum energy cost of 38 cents much better but still far too high therefore we will need to look elsewhere for improvements for phase one and two there is a significant freshness advantage in placing production close to consumption for phase three is much less important in vertical farms rice can be produced anywhere and shipped everywhere without the freshness penalty this means they can be placed in regions with cheap electricity since rice can be stored indefinitely it can be transported by boats not aeroplanes helping keep its transport emissions very low the rice electricity cost is based on 11 cents per kilowatt hour however if we can move our vertical farm anywhere we might as well put it somewhere with cheap electricity the farm would need its own energy supply to ensure the cheapest possible energy a 62 megawatt solar array in Mexico can produce electricity for 1.97 cents per kilowatt hour the farm will need a 20 megawatt system which scales to two point six seven cents per kilowatt hour because the solar energy is inconsistent it will also need an energy storage system even factoring this in we could expect an energy cost 3.14 cents per kilowatt hour by relocating our vertical farm we can reduce the electricity cost by a staggering 71% this is only possible due to remarkable progress with renewable energy despite some magnitude reduction in energy cost we're still looking at one dollar seventy four for a kilogram of rice this is prohibitively expensive at five times our target cost technology isn't static however current phase one farms are only profitable now because of significant improvements over the last few years so we've we factor in technological progress will we be able to close that energy gap absolute yield is set to increase dramatically because vertical farming is a relatively new technology and also because the combination of highly controlled growing conditions numerous sensors artificial intelligence and rapid cultivation periods greatly multiply the learning rate of vertical farms if we muddle our yearly absolute yield increase relative to outdoor farms we can save the difference in energy costs from 2018 to 2030 we can expect an absolute yield increase of at least 32 percent relative to outdoor agriculture that equates to a 24 percent energy saving before I mentioned the dramatic improvement in LEDs efficacy this graph shows the predicted energy reduction due to LED improvement from 2018 to 2030 in total it represents a 43% reduction in energy costs this improvement is based on PC LED technology other LED technologies have a much higher performance ceiling and will likely provide greater energy savings by 2030 the greatest technological cost reduction will come from solar whilst being a clean source of energy it's also on track to become the cheapest bringing us closer to an energy revolution from now until 2030 the cost of solar is predicted to fall by 56% so what happens when we stack absolute yield LED and solar improvement together this synergy creates a powerful multiplier the model predicts a profitable energy cost for rice by 2029 that leaves a decade to fix the other potential problems in advance such as breeding suitable seed and learning the optimal conditions for vertically farmed rice there are a number of technologies that will also help that I didn't have time to discuss in this series I will go into a bit more detail in the next video and I will look at these in future videos from the plummeting cost of robotics to the new frontiers of bioinformatics the future landscape of farming may well look very different indeed while researching this video I frequently changed my mind about the viability of vertical farming having looked at the current state and the future technology trends it's hard to argue that it isn't here to stay while this isn't going to happen immediately growth in the sector will accelerate as technological improvements drive down the investment and operational costs vegetables produced in a local vertical farm will likely be a common sight in supermarkets around the world perhaps as soon as five years maybe 10 most sources suggests crops like rice or over 40 years away or simply not possible due to the energy constraints however most estimates appear to overlook the extreme technological progress and how it can affect this industry taking these changes into account brings their viability a lot closer to present-day whether it's 10 years 12 years or 15 years solving the energy problem seems inevitable I started this video series looking at some of the biggest global problems we are facing now is a good time to revisit them if we make the necessary changes what will our 2050 world look like we're looking at a world with a highly resilient food production system that scales easily to produce more food and not be vulnerable to climate flooding and pest damage a system that will make food cheaper than it's ever been before it's not the only change required to eliminate world hunger but it will help significantly reducing Agriculture's global freshwater consumption by 91% will have an even greater effect both in terms of global water security an environmental impact we may be able to halt and reverse desertification and drastically reduce most of Agriculture's large greenhouse gas footprint we could further help reduce atmospheric co2 by River 15% of the global lands we are able to displace and this will finally reverse the trend of mass while by active population we see today at the end of the first video the future looked bleak for these global issues at least the news is promising but more changes and technological improvements will need to happen to solve them entirely this is what I'm going to address future videos well we can probably expect a large positive impact these changes won't happen overnight if you are hoping for more immediate results there might be one more bit of good news for the majority of this video I've been talking about human consumption but that only accounts for 55% of all crops grown 9% is used for biofuel 36% is used as livestock feed meat takes a huge amount of water to produce as the crops grown for the animals require a lot of water producing one kilo of beef requires seven kilos of crops to produce this makes meat production extremely water inefficient it's not just water though meat production is also extremely landed efficient 70% of all agricultural land is considered grazing light so if we really want to return a significant amount of global land back to forests we need to substitute Meadows for an alternative food source currently foods such as soy in hay are used to supplement livestock feed however they are land intensive to grow soy is also a highly water intensive phase three crop meaning where at least ten years away from being able to grow it in plant factories meat production contributes a considerable amount of the global challenges but it's largely due to its food imports sprouted barley fodder can supplement a significant percentage of livestock speed and can improve the health of the animals it can be grown extremely cheaply in plant factories with minimal labour water and electricity costs in fact the energy costs are so low that it can be grown profitably right now all across the world while data for this market is limited it appears to be grown quickly if this opportunity is realized by businesses globally we will start seeing impacts on the global challenges sooner than expected [Music]

Channel: Exa Cognition

Views: 150,355

Keywords: vertical farming, plant factory, indoor farming, hydroponic farming, agriculture, urban farming, farming, hydroponics, LED grow lights, global challenges, food security, sustainable farming, sustainability, global warming, climate, green technology, solar, wind energy, sustainable agriculture, future agriculture, The Future of Vertical Farming, future farming, future of farming, future vertical farms, rice vertical farming, wheat vertical farming, high-tech agriculture

Id: ESuzrY2abAw

Length: 17min 47sec (1067 seconds)

Published: Thu May 30 2019