Hello, I stumbled upon the EU's secret negotiation plan in the form of this slide presented by the chief EU negotiator at the European Council. This slide is amazing and I want to talk to you about it. So, since the Brexit breakup the EU and the UK have been trying unsuccessfully to broker a deal, and this slide makes it painfully clear why that has made such little progress over such a long time. It started with brexit where the UK voted to leave the European Union; now, what that means isn't exactly clear because the EU has a core center but it also has many orbits of relationships. So, the EU and the UK needed to figure out where they were as a couple and the UK has a list of deal-breakers that, at least at time of recording, are non-negotiable- and that's fine! Everyone has relationship deal-breakers. It would be unhealthy not to. Anyway, core no more the EU's next closest relationships are with Norway Iceland and Liechtenstein as part of the European Economic Area. This is a kind of "EU Light" They're part of the unified EU economy with the EU's four freedoms: Free movement of goods, free movement of services, free movement of capital, and free movement of people So, as an Irish citizen, since Ireland is "Core EU", I could go live in a cabin in Norway, even though they're not Core EU because of the free movement of people and vice versa Now for the UK free movement to people is a huge deal Shut it down – deal-breaker This makes an EEA style relationship. Just impossible So the next relationship orbital out is Switzerland who has a unique relationship with the EU She's not EU core, she's also not in the EEA, and she is completely landlocked by EU core members (I mean except for Liechtenstein) So perhaps inevitably despite not being part of the EU in any way she has over a hundred bilateral treaties with the EU integrating their economies which means that Switzerland has given up complete regulatory autonomy on goods and services to facilitate trade This is also a deal breaker. Switzerland's treaties grant freedom of movement– deal-breaker –and Switzerland makes significant financial contributions to the EU– deal breaker. These two things are also part of the EEA So while Switzerland isn't an EU member, in fact, she is basically in practice, but also, like the EEA members, lacks representation in the Parliament of EU Core So, Switzerland's relationship with the EU is also not one that the UK wants to emulate this now moves us to the outermost orbitals and we get into the really deep asterisks of European Union foreign relationships This is stuff like the European Eastern Partnership and the deep and comprehensive trade agreements Which sounds like political dirty talk or the European neighbourhood policy. a lot of the aims of these things is to bring neighbours more in line with Europe either with what the EU politely calls "The Promotion of Human Rights" or trade integration but both of these bring up the final deal breakers for the UK taking Ukraine as an example, while not remotely in EU member or even close, she has agreed to let the European Court of Justice have some jurisdictional power in her borders This is required by the EU for Ukrainian participation in Interpol A kind of FBI for the EU that works on cross-border crime. Nonetheless European Court of Justice jurisdiction does mean giving up some sovereignty on some issues and that's a deal breaker or take Turkey who can participate in trade negotiations under the aegis of the EU Presumably to benefit from the trading power a large bloc has but this means Turkey doesn't have complete independence in matters of trade policy Deal-breaker and so now we've passed the outermost orbital. Where a relationship even means anything and so end up in an inevitable no deal with the EU and UK's relationship being just regular countries to each other in the World Trade Organization Membership of which is basically every country on Earth So the progress from EU core out to No Deal is what this slide is showing: why the EU thinks that path is the only path but the UK has been saying very loudly she wants to deal while also saying brexit means brexit She wants independence but also wants a relationship that's deeper and more comprehensive with the EU than just the cold WTO rules, but for the EU it's impossible to see how to satisfy those desires contradictory without triggering the UK safeword Which is probably why this EU negotiation strategy slide wasn't a secret but was published back in December of 2017 by the lead negotiator in front of the heads of state because this isn't a secret strategy It's a clear illustration of the mechanistic results of all of the UK's deal-breakers I really do think this is a pretty amazing infographic in terms of clarity for a horrifically complicated topic which is why I just had to make this footnote to share it with you because I could not bear to let it fade away into my notes as just part of the background reading anyway that is why the brexit timeline has been so long with so little happening the UK has mutually exclusive wants as also discussed in the main video in a different area and It's really all down to the UK She could stick with the deal-breakers and go it alone Or she can drop some and settle in an orbital relationship with the EU, but she can't have both I guess We'll see what happens soon maybe
deeper, and more comprehensive
You can stop right there, this explains it all !
Pretty strange that soon we will have an even less close trade relationship with the UK than Turkey, with a simple customs treaty
Wish CGP grey can do a video on Withdrawal Agreement, love the way he explains complicated things.
He's not fully explaining the info-graphic. He says it's either giving up one or more red lines or no deal, but doesn't mention the Canada/South Korea route (and why it does or doesn't work), which is displayed with a green check-mark on the graphic.
I do not understand why there isn't a lot more public push for a second referendum. In the first referendum, 72% of the voters participated, and of those 52% voted for Brexit. That is a mere 37.5 % of all voters. I think that for a decision of that magnitude, a new referendum should be done, this time without false promises and lies to the people.
Is it just me or is that confusing the withdrawal agreement and the future relationship? The UK can come to an agreement with the EU on an exit without breaching its red lines (apparently Parliament can't sign off on it, but hey..) but even if that passes, the UK's withdrawal takes it to third country status rather than one of the existing(ish) EU models..
The UK should stay in the European Union till they know/decide what they want.
Stay and if in 2 yrs they want a deal like Norway, then move out on good terms. Crashing out is the worst idea possible.
Also known as: Can you Brits please stop bickering among yourselves and make up you f*cking mind? Thanks! Xxx