The Coming Global AI Conflict W/ Gilman Louie | EP #54

how do you see these two superpowers they actually have a timetable they want to be in a leadership position as the global AI leader we got there first we now face a competitor Nation are we moving fast enough the answer is no we're not moving fast enough their view of alignment and my view of alignment are very different right is it going to be fundamentally Chinese American fundamentally European it scares me sometimes it will change everything the way we live the way we play the way we have relationships the way we learn right everything the goal is to lead not to win because winning defines a finite game we're in an endless game I think this is our AI moment welcome to moonshots and mindsets one of the conversations that is going on right now is is the United States prepared for the speed at which AI is going to transform everything including governance and is China better situated to utilize AI I brought into Stage this year at abundance 360 The Honorable Gilman Louie to have that conversation a look at AI in the US government versus AI in China uh Gilman is the past CEO of nqutel uh the Venture Capital arm of the CIA today he's the CEO of America's Frontier fund which is effectively our Sovereign wealth fund here in the United States uh it's an amazing conversation and one that we need to be thinking about as the speed of AI is accelerating and it's going to have some extraordinary impact on who and how we run this planet all right check out this conversation from March 2023 at my private Summit abundance 360 with the honorable Gilman Louie on the future of AI and governance I'm thrilled to have you here and thank you for your willingness to take on this conversation because it's a very real conversation in the world today right um You have been overseeing so much and we're in the midst of these tumultuous times and you know we don't talk about the downside dystopian side here or an a360 too much but we need to talk about reality um and part of reality is uh the fact that AI is going to drive um a lot of change in the world uh it was uh Alex who said I think it was Alex who said you know whoever's the dominant AI player in the world in the next five years will remain the dominant player I mean We're Playing for Keeps in some in some ways here um so if you don't mind paint the picture for me uh where are we in the AI UA USA and AI China relationship here how much is the US government really uh uh leading and how much is the Chinese government really leading how do you see these two superpowers well I mean that's a great question I I think first of all if anybody spends any time understanding AI it's not because of what either governments are doing most of the AI Innovation work is happening in Academia in our companies though both countries have ceded a lot of AI research we do it through our organizations like DARPA irpa our National Science Foundation our National Labs China does it with its national champions with its University Systems and this Regional organizations I think the real question and the challenge for both countries is it is clear that both countries view that this is a competitive race it's sort of the issue of Winner Takes all and what that really really means and China kind of LED um first in the world to go out there and said as a nation for for where they wanted to go that AI was going to be critical they actually have a timetable they said my 2030 they want to be in a leadership position as the global AI leader right I used to take a group to China every year up until things started devolving but uh it was clear that the party and the Mayors and governors were making huge Capital Investments they were recruiting they were creating policies they were creating cities that were focused on AI um do we see the U.S doing the same well I think right now because of the current situation uh it's not just because of chat GPT though that has accelerated things uh the the U.S kind of woke up and said you know we we now face a competitor Nation right that's committed that has integrated this as a part of a national strategy is this the equivalent of the US versus Russia in the Space Race absolutely they had their Sputnik moment when you know alphago beat the best gold Champion yes right at least it all right right so so that was their moment in in fact even though I participated in this great study in this commission you know two a 750 page report that we put out two and a half I'm gonna have chat GPT right it's just like that thick and chat can probably compress it down to you know a few pages um but I think this is our AI moment yeah right this is our Sputnik moment you know people are waking up in Washington and looking at chat GPT and and are saying to themselves what did this what does this mean for our economy for National Defense you know how should we look at these particular Technologies in a much more profoundly different way than we looked at narrow AI yeah by the way uh once again please put your questions into the uh to the chat and upvote them I'll be going to your questions here in a little bit I mean listen I I'm uh thankful I'm a Libertarian capitalist I'm thankful to be American I love this country but when I think about linear uh sclerotic systems I think about the government and so the notion it scares me sometimes I'm super happy that we have amazing entrepreneurs like we just saw on the stage here uh who are able to do that um you're investing and I'll get to that in a little bit but uh do you think that the are you seeing from within the president's AI commission and so forth are you are you seeing um the internal attention and awareness and significance here is that I are we moving fast enough the answer is no we're not moving fast enough okay the governments have a very difficult time dealing with non-linear change functions yes the logarithmic change they they can't understand how to put that in perspective and so and it's not just the US government or the Chinese government I I just got back from Brussels right the EU is trying to wrestle with this now all three countries at some level is afraid of particularly the new technologies around generative Ai and and other AI Technologies that's on the bubble because unlike narrow AI where we can focus it on the problem right we can't necessarily control its outputs and that's frightening for governments so you know in Brussels what they want to do at least some in the commission you know they want to regulate it right so the first thing you need to do they want to regulate it that you know that's the first reaction of government always right on the U.S side there's let's let's create tort law basically two people right this is the American way so what we do and then the Chinese are kind of go like this might come out and say things that are not on the party line right and so you have to understand that kind of uh cultural realities of government as they look at these Technologies and all three are wrong I mean I could give this example I got this phone call I won't say from whom and said like we got to stop this thing like we got we got to do a timeout it's like stem cells all over again and here's what we need to do we need to call a moratorium and to be figured this thing out right I try to explain it's already out there there are these companies the code is totally available Source you know that strategy is not going to work but they said but it acts like a nine-year-old right it's like it it says stupid things and but it can like put together dangerous combinations you can you can build weapon systems off of this and I said look if your nine-year-old acts out in your house she throws food right kicks kicks things around throws a temper Tantra do you kill it right no you train it you train her to be smarter you put some rules around it right you get her to think about what what are the ethical considerations of what it's doing so our goal all the countries you know even our competitor Nations Nisa used AI in a way and mature in a way so that it gets smarter not Dumber you know one of the lessons we learned in the Ukraine right now yes is dumber it's deadly huh right so this idea that I know there's been a huge debate about how ai's use on the battlefield but Dumber systems leads to higher casualties right and worse non-intentional and so you know generally smarter is better same thing is true with AI this episode is brought to you by levels one of the most important things that I do to try and maintain my Peak vitality and Longevity is to monitor my blood glucose more importantly the foods that I eat and how they Peak the glucose levels in my blood now glucose is the fuel that powers your brain it's really important High prolonged levels of glucose what's called hyperglycemia leads to everything from heart disease to alzheimer's to sexual dysfunction to diabetes and it's not good the challenge is all of us are different all 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I wear it all the time really helps me to stay on top of the food I eat remain conscious of the food that I eat and to understand which foods affect me based upon my physiology and my genetics you know on this podcast I only recommend products and services that I use that I use not only for myself but my friends and my family that I think are high quality and safe and really impact a person's life so check it out levels.link slash Peter we give you two additional months of membership and it's something that I think everyone should be doing eventually this stuff is going to be in your body on your body part of our future of medicine today it's a product that I think I'm going to be using for the years ahead and hope you'll consider as well fascinating you know I'm going to ask you the question ultimately here of who do you think is likely to win the AI race between us and China but before I do that um when I think about um communism and socialism as experiments run you know over the last century uh one of the reasons they failed is because they were you couldn't run that system without having actual knowledge yeah could communism or socialism where socialism is basically technological social Technologies taking care of you and communism is understanding the markets better than the markets forces could be is are those systems potentially better structured for an aie so it's pretty clear that authoritarian governments or Socialist Communist governments want to use AI to better serve its its public right I mean we have a very Western point of view right which is we're kind of grounded in the American style democracy which I think is a good thing I think ultimately that's the better model but if you're in China and by the way it could be made better with AI oh absolutely right all systems can be made better with it yeah but if you want to deliver higher quality the the things that any government Democratic or authoritarian worries it most is unhappy populations unhappy populations Revolution and Revolt right so China's bringing a lot of effort of using their AI to deliver better Services right so they put a lot of energy in things like smart cities you know making sure the garbage is picked up on time making sure that the the public workers are actually doing their jobs they're doing some other stuff that I find not necessarily great the social scoring the you know the the monitoring the tracking but again culturally in China this issue around using Technologies for harmony yes Harmony is making certain increasing happiness increasing happiness and Alignment it's just their view of alignment and my view of alignment are very different right so I wasn't how important is it for the do you think for the U.S to win this AI China arms race if I were to polarize it that that way and and where do you think we are in that what would the US have to do to get there so we're playing this big game of Chester go and then your favorite game and and we're in their very early moves so I think winning and losing is the wrong conceptual framework it's really about leadership so if you kind of think about you you heard some great speakers today talking about you know data sets and algorithms and open source it is what platforms are companies and countries going to build their AI driven applications on top of and in the old days all of us technologists you know because I'm kind of old right we thought technology you're young and we'll have a longevity conversation later yeah when I wrote 120 by the way okay but but the challenge that we have is this this concept that no I know for your age but what about one through five about how you feel about AI oh five five okay great right I mean it it will change everything yeah everything the way we live the way we play the way we have relationships the way we learn right everything and it is going to be such a global accelerator it'll make everything go non-linear all at the same time everywhere always or right and but here's the thing we're at physical 1.0 yes right I mean literally this is like Windows 10. those of you who don't know what that is that's like really early yeah really early days but but I go back into the framework of of how these countries kind of look at this technology and what winning means whoever puts the data sets together whoever puts the training sets together whoever builds these models out can't help a building bias into those systems right this idea that systems are not biased it's impossible right because bias Is How We Do judgment it's the thing that we go it's our shorthand of how we got like shortcuts in the brain shortcuts in the brains and AI is going to develop those same shortcuts and so but we want them biased the way we want them biased in a positive way the way we view so the competition between China and the US is not just who has a better missile system or who can shoot down the other guy's hypersonics faster all that's really really important but how we build all of our information systems and what cultural biases we put into there right is it going to be fundamentally Chinese fundamentally American fundamentally European right those cultural biases are going to be built in at least in this current generation of generative AI it's going to be built into those systems let me remind you please put your questions in the slido and we can bring slido up when there's some let's bring it on back here uh and we'll get some of the participation um can AI be regulated I've been dying to ask you this question I mean there are Regulators who want to regulate it through whatever mechanism but is it even regulatable well clearly people will try to regulate it yes right for example they're going to try to regulate it so you can't build right the next toxin to kill everybody sure right we want regulations like that so there will be regulation but I think this concept that we can put the genie back in a bottle is false right that is that's not going to happen and so if anything if anything we got to move faster not slower because the danger point is between that nine-year-old and that 30 year old right so I I love that right I think about uh AI is about to enter adolescence yes it's where you're strong enough but you don't know your strength yet yeah you're kind of stupid and the frontal lobe hasn't evolved yet right my kids are 11 I'm told it's going to be blurry for a few years and then they wake up in the early 20s and we're going to use that blurriness to our advantage you know people talk about AI particularly generative AI hallucinating it's a bad thing yes but if you actually look at what is hallucinating it is actually its form of creativity right we just need to you know I give you a great example I just said uh uh name all the awards that Gilman Louis has won so it lists like a bunch of my CIA medals and then three other medals I don't have right so one of them was the presidential medal for Innovation so I took it to the White House and asked him to deliver the medal next week to myself right so so low we're seeing these AIS be super creative we just think it's a hallucination we're not leveraging the power of these pattern recognitions to our advantage let me go to a couple questions here uh what is the likelihood of stacking AI on blockchain to keep government uh transparent a fact-based scoreboard um so do a couple of problems first of all blockchain is hugely energy and efficient which I have my own challenges around that and the security models itself right will last for a little while I know we have a bunch of quantum resistant algorithms who are playing with yeah we have uh that's tomorrow night but but I would say this it's that question might be grounded in this idea that AI fundamentally is explainable right that's kind of like Clean Coal right when I when I asked my child how did she come up with that idea to eat that candy all at one time at the dinner table she says I don't know right it's the neural net right so she doesn't know what neuron fired at what time to meet that decision AIS are like that now can it be more transparent yes can we do things to make it more understanding kind of how it got there but at the end at the end of the day neural networks are neural Nets and anybody who understands that space understands it's not it's statistical it's not right deterministic McMahon from our Singularity Community asked why have we not heard of a Chinese Chachi PT competitors that's interesting well they're clearly working on one well many many companies Chinese companies are working on this right uh again we got there first yeah it sort of like vaccines on the until we got there first right it doesn't mean that we'll continue to provide that leadership going forward I think we have to give the Chinese companies it and Government Credit for being able to actually apply these Technologies faster than we do right so that's why for for the US and for for the Western countries moving faster is going to be more important because if we don't those foundational Tech that all of that foundational AI could easily be built upon Chinese Technologies um a few questions you previously served as the CEO of incutel which is an extraordinary Venture fund The Venture fund of the CIA which I always thought was amazing as a concept I'm curious um one of the subjects we talk about here last year we'll talk about again next year is the field of brain computer interface is incatel investing in BCI well I'm going to go specifically in Kentucky because I'm not actively involved in niketon anymore but this is the area of Interest it has been the interest for 30 years I would imagine every defense organization is going to try to increase intelligence well yeah well here's our problem right our problem is our mental models is based on what humans do so all of our data is based on what are we call these Mark ones our eyeballs can see what we can hear what we can understand we design all of our informations that are human-centric and the problem with that model is humans become it's the limitation right if you're going to Design Systems in the future you got to break out of those sensory things a direct brain interface now why is the military interested in that well for obvious reasons right if I'm underneath you know nine G's I'm waiting my head weighs 2 000 pounds I can't move my hands right thinking about what that system should do for it to do it's probably better than me having that physically trying to reach out you know at 9g so pull that aside also because the stakes is much higher you know it's one thing for an AI to make a bunch of mistakes on you know picking a stock is another thing if AI picks the wrong things that ultimately leads to somebody's death yeah right so it sticks it much higher let's talk to your let's talk about your newest Adventure which is amazing America's Frontier fund I've heard it described as the America's Sovereign wealth fund and I've always wondered why doesn't the US have a sovereign wealth fund like Saudi has pif and and many other countries uh so talk to us what is America's Frontier so our view is particularly because of this revolution AI right that because AI modeling and simulation digital twins as we call them right it's moving along at such a rapid rate yes that those Technologies are going to revolutionize right foundational or Frontier Technologies for the next decade so things that might have seemed 20 years off are not only going to be five to ten years off you can talk about Quantum right Quantum is always 20 years away right Fusion is always 20 years away right being able to decode and actually simulate a human cell is always 20 years away until now yeah right and so America's Frontier fund is to make sure that the U.S begins to actually invest in the technologies that are going to transform the world it's not just the AI it's the application of AI it's to improve all of humanity hey everybody this is Peter a quick break from the episode you know I'm a firm believer that science and technology and how entrepreneurs can change the world is the only real news out there worth consuming I don't watch the crisis News Network I call CNN or Fox and hear every devastating piece of news on the planet I spend my time training my neural net the way I see the World by looking at the incredible breakthroughs in science and technology how entrepreneurs are solving the world's Grand challenges what the breakthroughs are in longevity how exponential Technologies are Transforming Our World so twice a week I put out a Blog one blog is looking at the future of longevity age reversal biotech increasing your health span the other blog looks at exponential Technologies AI 3D printing synthetic biology AR VR blockchain these Technologies are transforming what you as an entrepreneur can do if this is the kind of muse you want to learn about and shape your neural Nets with go to demandis.com backslash blog and learn more now back to the episode when go to these last two questions here in our four minutes how can we as taxpayers advocate for the development of AI Technologies and the race to embrace these Technologies in the U.S to maintain our competitive Advantage so should should American citizens be saying to the White House and Congress guys you got to get you got to get in the game here well absolutely and look the defense department was the first Department of any military in the world to actually create its own AI ethics which is amazing trust me I was in there when the sausage was made you don't want to know how we made that sausage but but we under what we said is we're going to have leadership in the world the goal is to lead not to win right I I love that distinction lead not win because winning defines a finite game right it's like video games you know we're we're in an endless game hopefully it's in the only way to win stupid not to play right right exactly so in in that particular case right I think the public needs the demand from the government what are the Frameworks of how we should be using these Technologies so you know I remember in the in the 19 late 80s when I was in medical school I was playing the restriction enzymes uh the first ability to chop up DNA and there were these very famous Cinemark conferences where all the gene jockeys got together and they self-regulated yeah before the government regulated them is that going on in the AI world now I think the AI companies are beginning to get real about this and in our view is this and we try to communicate we being you know some of us who are trying to where our government hats talking to our companies and that is if you don't have some level of self-regulation right and and responsible use then somebody's going to tell you what responsible use and regulate you so so in the European world that means ban right if the European courts make a ruling that said there's no appeal right that's not like the political system here you just wait for the next Administration to show up to go again right um and the same thing that's on the Chinese side right if you if you do the wrong thing you're out of there you might be gone for six months and you know and come back later as a high school teacher so so Stakes are high it's it's really really hot and so if companies we cannot and I'll be really tough on my technology companies in America right we cannot have this idea that we're U.S Centric first when it deals to the rest of the world because when we go into a place like Europe and we say you know we don't consider their values what they've gone through as a group of countries and we applied just blindly right our ethical overlays on those models it doesn't work right and so so we culturally have to be much more open-minded and understanding the baselines and maybe chat GPT could help our diplomacy a little bit better on dealing with these particular issues when it comes to company diplomacy what countries overseas one more question from slido here in the Space Race the public rallied behind the government's investment put people on the moon um do you think we might see that in the race to win AI or I'll translate it in the race to lead uh Humanity in AI I already seen it right 750 page report two and a half years you're at the CEO of Oracle the CE former CEO of Google the current CEO of Amazon a bunch of scientists there were 15 of us who put together the 750 page report now here's what happens some of 150 page reports in the government you'd stick on the shelf and you move on to the next commission right that didn't happen this time this time Congress both Republicans and Democrats embraced that report we put together over 250 billion dollars of spending some of it you're seeing in the chips act in many other areas as a country we're going to spend 1.6 trillion dollars on technology so we haven't seen this kind of spending since the Apollo program well right so um we want to win right not win in the sense of you know winner takeoff we want to win this leadership competition we're going to use that it's a beautiful because that's what we got to do the conversation let me close on this question the America Frontier fund your your fund what are you investing in now we are we're just setting up so saying how big a fund is that 500 million dollar fine it's just fun that people can invest into or people can if you're qualified invest into the fund um they'll match much of our funding will come from uh States and and pension programs sure but we are doing a couple things a little bit differently so the first thing that we're doing differently you heard a little bit about this from the other speakers it's you have to build these Technologies with intention because the capital cost is so expensive so it means rather than simply coming up with incubators you actually had to do company building matching technologists with Scientists with people who know how to run companies the second thing you have to do Islam our coasts are great generated 90 of our Innovation jobs for the last 10 years five cities right that's not an economic model that's viable for the next 20 years we got involved the rest of the country and what's interesting is if you look at these key foundational Technologies these Frontier Technologies they're being done in places like Purdue Georgia tap right they're being built in Austin in places like New Mexico in Arizona in Colorado right Ohio you know in places like Taylor Texas that's the foundation of our next wave it doesn't mean that the coasts aren't going to be a participant but those economies are overcooked right now how long you'd be with us when do you have to leave I'm gonna have to leave tomorrow morning unfortunately I've been called by a governor I won't tell you which day but you're here tonight to join us for the celebration and pick up let's give it up for The Honorable Gilman Louie [Music] foreign

Channel: Peter H. Diamandis

Views: 13,036

Keywords: peter diamandis, longevity, xprize, abundance

Id: Dqx_eEEh_ws

Length: 30min 55sec (1855 seconds)

Published: Thu Jul 13 2023