Tesla's Future Battery Strategy Explained

tesla's battery day has come and gone it  was one of the most anticipated events of   recent memory and i was pretty impressed i kind of  expected as much i think the hype was over the top   in this episode i want to break this down and give  you all the highlights of what was covered and how   it's all going to factor in to their future but  before i get started just a quick moment i want   to say thank you to all of our patrons on patreon  your support means so much to us and if you want   to be a rock star supporter of this show help us  make more content more often consider becoming a   patron and if you're thinking about buying a tesla  whether it's a car or powerwall or solar products   use our link it would really mean a lot to  us help support the show give us a couple   of perks and you as well and most importantly  it'll help us get some visibility with tesla   and maybe the next event we'll be able to attend  in person all right so let's jump right into it   part one was kind of the investor portion part  two was the battery portion so in the investor   portion they mentioned that the shanghai factory  was built in about 15 months which is really   really impressive to go from dirt and drawings  to a full factory and if you're a tesla investor   the shanghai factory is a huge deal that is the  biggest car market they were the first new car   company in 100 years to build volume automobiles  which is again crazy cool we take that for granted   with all the progress lately also four straight  quarters of gaap profitability which means they're   s p 500 ready that'll probably happen at some  point and they're outperforming every other   automaker who's had a tough time here during covet  19 and all the other stuff going on in the world   but tesla's sales are still up elon also mentioned  how critical safety is to their design they make   the safest cards ever tested and interestingly  the y was not in some of their documentation   it might just be that the data is not out yet  i'll be curious to find out but they mentioned   the x and the three which we know are safest in  segment and i'm sure the y is right there as well   one thing i thought was very insightful and i'll  do an entire episode about this as a software   engineer i think i have a pretty good idea on  what they're struggling with but their entire   fsd software package has gone through kind of a  page one rewrite so i think their platform was   hitting limitations and rather than try  to patch it with fixes and small changes   i think they wanted to refactor it re-architect  it and build it again from the ground up there's   also news about giga texas and how they're going  to be building model ys which look the same but   they're going to be built differently all right so  now let's jump right into the heart of the matter   battery day so first i loved what elon mentioned  about how they gauge success he mentions that   the really the idea is i want to measure how much  quicker we have a sustainable transportation model   and that's how he gauges his success and honestly  already today i think the number is like 20 years   we've we'd be 20 years ahead of where we would be  without tesla and that number is only growing over   1 million evs delivered and over 26 billion miles  driven all really cool metrics next thing is he   jumps right into talking about the current battery  output currently tesla is at around 0.1 terawatt   hours of battery output a year and he says we need  to be at about 10 terawatt hours per year so going   from where we are now in the gigawatt hours per  year capacity to 10 terawatt hours is a really   big jump and it gets to the heart of one thing  i want to make sure that we're all clear on and   that is all the batteries that tesla is currently  buying whether from panasonic or lg chem or catl   they will continue to do that tesla wants to get  their hands on every cell possible if they have   more cells they can make more cars and more power  walls and make more money so they need every cell   they can possibly get and as they project out  into 2022 elon mentioned in a tweet that they're   projecting that there will be shortfalls where  they're not going to have enough batteries for   the kind of scale that they want to build up  to and that is why tesla building their own   batteries in-house is a big deal to further drive  this point home he mentioned that we would need a   135 gigafactories like the ones we have in  nevada to make that many batteries and that   just isn't going to happen just in terms of  cost and labor materials all the other things   that would be needed that's just not doable so  their goal really is to be more efficient make   more batteries in their factories make them more  energy dense and all around improve output so to   make a better battery tesla has broken it down  into improvements in five key areas the first   is the battery cell design the individual cell  design the second is the cell factory how they're   going to build individual cells the third is the  anode materials fourth cathode materials and fifth   the cell vehicle integration how it all comes  together into the package of a car tesla's   first batteries in their model s were 18650  18 millimeters around and 65 millimeters tall   and that moves over to 2170 when they went to the  model 3 and y now their next cell is going to be   even bigger and it is a 46 80. so that means  46 millimeters across and 80 millimeters tall   this is by far a larger battery than they've ever  built before and there's a lot of good things that   happen when the batteries get bigger you can pull  more so the power density how much energy you can   draw from it at a time goes up so tesla mentions  that the real strategy here and the real challenge   to bigger batteries is that the heat goes up and  you can't have the batteries getting hotter so how   do they solve that by going with a tablet battery  design until now the batteries that they've been   going into their cars have a tab on it what that  means is if you were to unwind the battery roll   that the furthest point the electrons would  have to travel would potentially be the length   of the roll and now these battery rolls when you  unwind them could be like three meters long or   nine feet so that means that let's say the tab  is in the middle well then at the furthest point   you'd have electrons traveling half length of  the role and if the tab is on the end you'd have   electrons that have to travel the entire length  of the roll this causes higher resistance and   impedance and it also makes the batteries hotter  as they operate the solution to this is to go   with a tablet architecture and they have a spiral  tab design so each roll has a little bit of a tab   that overlaps and touches itself and as a result  you don't have to have a tab at some point in   the battery length all you would have to travel  is the 80 millimeters that the battery is tall   this is really important and this is what's going  to allow them to use this bigger battery and to be   able to mitigate the one problem that the bigger  battery comes with from the cell design step   one of their improvement process they're going to  have 16 better range i think for volume or weight   considered equal so for example for one  kilogram of the old cells versus new   you're going to have 16 more range second  you're going to have a 6x increase in power   and this is what i mentioned before  this power is really important for   high power applications like the tesla semi my  car is measured in watt hours per mile so 250   watt hours per mile means 4 miles per kilowatt  hour the tesla semi will be the other way around   it's going to be kilowatt hours per mile it'll  be multiple kilowatt hours probably per mile   so with this new cell design they're going to have  six times the power density from each individual   cell which will be great end result of all this  is about a 14 improvement in dollars per kilowatt   hour and that is a huge reduction from just  the first step all right so now step two is   the battery factory category so here there's a  couple of things and they want to talk about the   electrode and this is where the maxwell technology  acquisition really comes into play i knew this   would be a big improvement in terms of floor space  and methodology and procedure and it would help   them make more batteries but i cannot believe just  how much of a reduction this is going to result in   current batteries are created when a wet slurry  mixture is added to a electrode and it is then   forced into a baking process and then it is  treated and fixed and finally ready to rock   this new procedure would be a dry coating and they  showed it as a kind of a press so you put the dry   coating material on top you roll it through  a press and as a result now you have the dry   electrodes completely ready and attached to the  current collectors without any baking or anything   else the end result is a 10x reduction in the  energy required all that baking all the ovens all   that sort of thing and a 10x reduction in floor  space footprint so that means that in a factory   you only need one tenth of the space you used to  need for all of these machines and as a result   then you could have more assembly lines for  battery production and one thing elon wanted to   make really clear is that this procedure is really  difficult it wasn't like they acquired maxwell   technologies and it was mission accomplished  they mentioned that they're on their fourth   revision of the machine to actually do this dry  coating application and he believes that it might   be revision five or even six by the time this  reaches full production so this is really hard   if it was easy he says everybody would do it but  the end result of doing this is shocking and it'll   completely revolutionize how they can assemble  and put together batteries they also acquired   high bar systems which will be the battery  manufacturing machinery that they're going to   implore and they have already started to improve  upon their process and come up with a continuous   assembly line to maximize output and in the entire  presentation my biggest takeaway is that the one   thing elon wants to absolutely dominate on is  being the best manufacturing company in the world   he mentions that in a couple of years everybody  will have a long range ev that isn't the hard part   he says he must be the best manufacturing company  in the world and i think what that really means is   that long term even if other people start  to license batteries from other companies   teslas will always have the advantage because they  are deeply invested in the vertical integration   of building their own battery and as their  manufacturing prowess and expertise increases   they'll increasingly widen the gap because they'll  have battery costs that are substantially lower   than other people and until a day when they have  so many batteries that they're selling it to other   customers that means that they'll have the  biggest advantage in the market the next two   categories are anode and cathode material  these are the main components of a battery   and the big takeaway here is that rather than  just buying this raw material from some other   company they have plans to build a factory in  north america somewhere where they will actually   be in the business of producing anode and cathode  material not just buying that from somebody else   so for the anode clearly the move is to have  more silicon but how to do that is key because   solutions like silicon glass or silicon structured  in graphite and silicon nanotubes which is   something that people thought they might go with  is all really expensive and the volume that they   could yield would be just too low for the kind of  scale that they're trying to build batteries at   so they're going to come up with a custom  tesla silicon which is going to be very   cost effective at around a dollar 20 cents or  so per kilowatt hour so as a result they're   claiming about a 20 percent better range than  with their current chemistry for the anode   all while keeping costs really reasonable part  two of course is the cathode the first key is   they wanted to be cobalt free and the reason why  is cobalt is the least ethically sourced of their   battery materials there are concerns with child  labor and other concerns that tesla does not want   to be associated with plus it's really expensive  so their new battery is going to be cobalt free   second they're going to go with a different tiered  approach for their different kinds of applications   which is also really smart one for stationary  applications things that don't need to be the most   energy dense and lightweight for example a power  wall which is just stuck to the side of your house   they're gonna go with lithium iron phosphate  which is a great chemistry for something like   that and most companies use that it means really  long life and good prices even if it's not the   most energy dense second for their medium range  applications like their sedans and their cars   they'll have a nickel and manganese formulation  and finally for mass sensitive applications   like the tesla semi they'll have a high nickel  content battery this will give them the most range   and the highest energy density the big surprise  here for me was the fact that they mentioned   they're building a lithium and a cathode factory  of plant here in north america so that means   they'll take raw materials and they will build  it out into the cathode and lithium materials   that go into batteries this is really important  because that means they are now in the business   of recycling because when you handle the  entire material supply chain from that level   that means when all packs come in to be recycled  that's actually a cost-saving measure because when   you have to go mine it it costs this much and when  you can just grab it from your own battery packs   you used to make and break those down into the  lithium and the nickel content to recycle your   costs are actually getting better so recycling  isn't even being done for the environment which   it will be it's being done because it means it'll  have the cheapest supply chain possible and he   mentioned that when we reach full scale meaning  when everyone's driving electric we have batteries   everywhere supply chain will barely even involve  mining it'll all just be recycling and that's   amazing because it drives a nail in the idea that  batteries are bad for the environment because   sure we do have to mine them once we have them  they can be reformulated and recycled and reused   which is not true about petroleum for example  another comment that i've gotten in the past is   about lithium mines there was an idiot on  twitter that i retweeted who said this is a   lithium mine and showed a huge hole in the ground  and it's like no that's a copper mine because you   don't mind lithium like that lithium is actually  found in saltwater brine pools around the world   and they mentioned that they actually bought  the rights to about 10 000 acres of land   where there's lithium clay deposits in nevada and  one thing elon mentioned is that there is enough   lithium just in nevada to build all the cars in  the entire u.s auto market so that goes to show   you that lithium is not some rare earth material  it is highly abundant and in great supply okay   last but not least is the cell vehicle integration  what that means is how we go from a battery cell   to a completely built out pack in a car currently  what tesla does is they build modules so they have   their cells that they line up they put their bus  bars on them they put them to series in parallel   to the right voltage that they want and then  they put them into packs and this pack has   a cooling ribbon and it attaches to other packs  and they're lined up together all that metal for   the pack is metal and weight that isn't giving  you any range so tesla wants to get rid of that   and to reduce all the bits that don't add range  and streamline the entire process how they will   do that is with the gigapress which is the largest  casting machine ever on earth and what it will do   is it'll build the entire front and back of these  vehicles as one huge cast currently there's a lot   of different parts that are stamped into the right  shape and they're either riveted or welded and   there's just a lot of parts a lot of complication  this machine would actually build the entire back   end for example of these cars in one piece and  they were able to do that because they actually   came up with their own alloy of aluminum the key  here is that it doesn't need to be heat treated   to be strong and that is key if they're going  to cast the entire part in one go so now with   the one piece casting the batteries would have  a place to be fit in and he mentioned that the   structure that will be used to glue and laminate  the batteries to the top and the bottom will all   act structure so now the batteries and the casing  is all part of the structure of the car as opposed   to building a structure with an open area for  modules to sit in and his analogy was to airplanes   early aircraft had wings that had space for a fuel  tank later airplanes actually decided what if we   build a wing-shaped fuel tank and that's kind of  what they do the entire wing is a fuel tank and   it's kind of built into the right shape that's  the approach they're taking with their battery   integration into the vehicle itself so if you  factor in one two three four five all together the   end result is a 57 percent savings but that's not  all they're claiming 55 more range i'm not sure   if that is for the same amount of mass or volume  but either way it's pretty impressive and a 56   reduction in the price per kilowatt hour at the  battery level also the investment per gigawatt   hour is reduced by 70 percent so that means if  they want to go and scale up to 10 tera dollars   per year that price that would be needed to  be spent to reach there has been reduced by 70   so this is what they're planning to do and they  actually have a battery factory that they're   building batteries out of in fremont so they  have their in-house development they're going   to scale that up and eventually in 18 months  or so they'll start to ship these in products   maybe the tesla semi for example and in three  four years they'll be a full scale production   the one thing elon mentioned that i wasn't too  happy with was that they are not going to support   vehicle to grid and his argument was that  that's why you should get a power wall   and to my ear that doesn't sound like  the best answer and the reason is because   you have a hundred kilowatt battery pack sitting  in your garage and the average car is not used   very much so until we have like robo taxi networks  most people don't use their cars and they already   have a huge battery pack that could be stabilizing  the grid but i think this gets into the one   thing that was not mentioned this is i maybe  shouldn't have went to the very end for this but   they don't mention anything about the life cycle  there was no mention of a million mile battery   so that makes me think all these improvements are  going to still be closer to the 250 to 300 400   000 mile range type numbers and that they didn't  maybe quite reach the million mile battery mark   yet but until you have really long life cycles  i think the vehicle to grid would be a problem   because if you're gonna stand by a hundred  thousand mile warranty you don't want these cars   batteries to be depleted and charged and depleted  and charge sitting there while they're not driving   because then you'll have to replace more packs  and it'll cost you more money so sounds like a   business decision but we will see i'll report  and make another video in the future if things   change there but the two last things that they  mentioned they're one more things if you will   first they confirm they are building a 25 000  electric vehicle that will be huge that is when   you compete with the honda civic and the toyota  camry and that will be the car that they will sell   a lot of so they're not going to build that car  until they have enough battery supply sorted out   because they already are battery constrained with  cars like the model 3 which are closer to 45 000.   so before they even talk about a 25 000 model  they have to scale up battery production by   like a factor of 5 or 10. when they do that that  next generation more affordable car will come   the second thing is the model s plaid edition  this car is going to be 0 60 in under 2 seconds   have a 200 mile an hour top speed and  it was caught doing laps at laguna seca   at one minute 30 seconds point three which would  be like the fastest car two-door or ford or ever   tested it'll have over 1100 horsepower oh and it  will do over 520 miles of range if these numbers   sound interesting i think they pretty much had  the lucid air on the board and they wanted to   beat it in terms of specs and i think they have  but what a great time to be alive to have these   different companies with great engineers  behind them competing and making better and   better products i think we all win so that is the  announcement i think their stock went down because   i don't know they were expecting tesla to unveil a  cure for cancer or something i'm not exactly sure   the hype is never justified and that's what  i want people to remember about this stuff   this is an engineering company and this is  an engineering event the kinds of things that   they're doing are really challenging i loved  that they had engineers on stage talking about   the challenges and inviting people to apply to  tesla if you want to work and change the world   because these are challenging problems and i  think wall street doesn't typically understand   the nature of what some of this stuff is because i  think their stock will take a little bit of a dip   for a while because people expected who knows  what but huge announcement amazing stuff did i   miss something was there more you guys thought  about i'd love to hear from you on this one if   you guys haven't already i would love if you join  me on twitter and follow me on twitter i'm trying   to be more active there and 130 000 subscribers  on youtube 800 followers on twitter there's a   disconnect let's fix that i'd love to be more  involved in the community um join us on patreon   if you're buying a tesla use our link thank you  for all of your support as always we hope you're   excited about the event and all that is to come  i know i am can't wait to hear more we'll cover   some of these topics in future videos in the  coming week or two in greater depth so subscribe   and and be on the lookout for that i'm ricky  with davinci and thank you so much for watching

Channel: Two Bit da Vinci

Views: 350,304

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Id: g1ppM22EQFs

Length: 21min 14sec (1274 seconds)

Published: Wed Sep 23 2020