Market Domination. I'm Josh Lipton, alongside Jared Blikre, live from our NYC headquarters. We're giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. >> And here is your headline blitz getting you up to speed. One hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. >> This is another good, absolutely rock solid labor report. There's not much to complain about here. Moreover, if you're a market player and you see those downward revisions of 111,000 over the past couple of months, hey guys, that's fed positive. >> The trajectory with the weak eco data that we've received over, you know, probably the last 4 to 8 weeks, the jobs number this morning as well. The trajectory has now been that the fed is more than likely cutting in September. Personally I think maybe they even need to consider July though that's off the table for now. Pretty much. >> Any selling is likely to be staggered over a period of time and actually there's a question as to whether there will be any sellers because, as I say, it's likely that many of the claims have already traded hands and people already are either going to hold Bitcoin for the longer term, or they're going to sell. But it's unlikely to happen all at once. So it should be managed and the market should be able to absorb any supply coming throug. >> And we got under one hour to go. Let's take a look at where we stand today. You can see a lot of green. Well not in the small caps but the Nasdaq leading the way here up 83 basis points 8/10 of 1. We want to check out the price action for four days. That's how many days we have in this week Nasdaq up nicely 3.4. And we know the Nasdaq and the Dow haven't always been complimentary. But we see the Dow up 6/10 of a percent. And we've got the S&P 500 somewhere in between. I want to fast forward to the bond market right now where we are seeing the ten year yield down about eight basis points. So that was in reaction to the report we got this morning. This was 8:30 a.m. right there. And we did see stocks move a little bit. But this has not been a huge day. This is again the S&P 500. But I do want to move on to the VIX real quick. Well it looks like it disappeared. So let's just skip over to some heat maps where we have communication services leading the way up 1.7. Then we got staples health care consumer discretionary. All of those outperforming. And you take a look at the Nasdaq 100. What a nice picture. Who needs Nvidia right. It's down 1. But we got some other action in the Mega-caps meta up 5. Apple up more than one and a half. Alphabet up 2.5. The list goes on. So Josh let's break it down all right Jared thank you. >> The June jobs report showing another sign of the U.S. job market continuing to cool the unemployment rate, unexpectedly rising to the highest reading almost three years. While June's job additions saw a slight decline from May PNC Financial Services Group chief economist Gus Foshay joining us now to discuss Gus. It's always good to see you. So you look at this report, Gus, headline payroll growth of 206,000. We did see Gus downward revisions mentioned an unemployment rate ticking up to 4.1. So some some puts and takes here. But Gus, break it down for us. How did you read this report? >> I read this report as being very positive. The job market continues to improve, but the pace of job growth is slowing towards a more sustainable pace. Over the longer run. We saw slower wage growth, which is reducing inflationary pressures from the labor market. But at the same time, wages are increasing more quickly than inflation. So household incomes are going up and the economy should continue to expand. So I think if you're at the fed this is what you want to see. Slower job growth a little bit higher unemployment rate, slower wage growth. And that would support cuts in the fed funds rate sometime later this year. >> And do you think with a higher unemployment rate there's something called the sum rule. And we don't need to get into the nitty gritty. But you think if the unemployment rate kind of holds here around 4.1 4.2, that actually gives the fed a lot of cover to lower interest rates as it has been telegraphing. It wants to do. >> That's right. I mean, it's an indication that there is a bit more slack in the labor market. What they don't want to do is wait too long to cut, because that increases the likelihood that we get a recession, not necessarily this year, but let's say in mid 2025, I think they do want to cut because they're concerned that monetary policy is weighing on the economy. So this type of jobs report gives them the ability to do that. They can say, look, inflation is slowing. The labor market is cooling a bit. Therefore we should be cutting rates sometime later this year. >> And Gus, when would you be looking for in terms of later this year? Are you in the September camp? >> I'm more in the November camp because I think they'd like to get past the election. I think if they cut in September, then that opens them up to political criticism. So I think November looks more likely and I don't think it makes a big deal for the economy one way or the other. That being said, if we do see the job growth is slowing a little more than we're expecting, then we might get that September cut. But I think, you know, right now, November, but September is still in play. >> You know, time flies by here in a week. We got the big bank earnings. Just wondering, you see anything in the data here that maybe we should be concerned about the consumer is the consumer is still strong. >> I think the consumer is still holding up. As I said, real incomes continue to rise. When we look at things like debt service ratio, those are still pretty low. Obviously, travel has been incredibly strong this summer and so there's no indication to me that there are significant problems for the consumer. I think there are some low income consumers who are a little bit stretched, but we also have for high income consumers, we have rising stock prices, rising household wealth. That's supporting spending. And we have seen the savings rate tick up a little bit, which is what consumers are going to need to do over the longer run, save a little bit more. So I think that there's still overall in good shape, perhaps with a little bit of concern for lower income consumers in particular, >> Gus. And next week of course, CPI is on deck. I'm curious, what are you looking for there, Gus? And how important is that? Is that print to the fed, >> so 0.1% on the overall CPI. We did see gasoline prices fall from May to June, particularly given that seasonally we would expect them to increase. We expect to see the core at 0.2% increase from from May to June. Again, that's good news from the Fed's perspective. After some less progress in slowing in inflation in early 2024, we're starting to see inflation slow a bit more. That being said, it takes more than 1 or 2 months for the fed to be convinced that inflation is slowing. But I think we will get better numbers on inflation over the next couple of months, and then that supports a rate cut later this year sometime. >> Gus, always good to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us. >> Thank you. >> And we are just getting started here on market domination. Coming up more meme mania. Shares of Koss surging this morning by 26. We'll discuss the hype behind the meme stock. Plus Nvidia gets a rare downgrade. We'll tell you why the analyst behind that call sees near-term risks ahead. And later, the summer box office is playing catch up after a rough start to the year. Studios are betting on a large slate of mid-range sequels and prequels, but it may not be enough to keep moviegoers back in theaters. All that and more when market domination returns. >> Let us get now to our call of the day. New Street research downgrades Nvidia to neutral. The analyst citing limited further upside for the tech giant going forward. And, Josh, we were just talking about this real quickly over the break. And, this is some bad news to drop on a Friday. You know, but yes, we're talking about it, when we think about this, you know, the run that Nvidia has had, there are a lot of valuation calls you could make. It's gone up 150. Why not stop here? So what's next? I think you know, the outlook beyond 2025. It requires a bit of faith, but, that's what's kind of gotten the stock here. >> Yeah. I mean, really, it sounds like, you know, so this analyst says he downgraded to neutral, says looking that Nvidia is getting fully valued for the base case. Says upside will only materialize in a bull case in which the outlook beyond 2025, he says, increases materially. And we do not have the conviction on that scenario playing out yet, goes on to say, Jared, the quality of the franchise, he tells his clients it's intact, sounds like it's a valuation call as an issue here. >> Well, if we go to a chart, let me just point out what happened last year. There was five or maybe even six months when Nvidia basically did nothing and so this is a two year chart on the Wi-Fi interactive. It's gone up so far from then that it's hard to see, and probably hard to remember because it's gone up most of this year. But we had a good five months or so, and then it just kind of petered off. It didn't really get started again until the beginning of the year. So you know, maybe it takes a prolonged, not not necessarily even correction in price, but maybe in time to get people interested in again. But you know, Nvidia, that's what it's done. It's a textbook rally where, you know, you consolidate, you move to the next level and then you start all over again. >> That's it. All right. We're getting another voice on on all things Nvidia all things markets here with more on Nvidia and the markets is Yahoo Finance's very own Myles Udland. I didn't know you were allowed to downgrade Nvidia. Is that only on Friday afternoons. >> Well you're only allowed fourth only allowed to do it on Friday afternoons after July 4th. Otherwise you know too many people might see the call. But no I thought the point was Jared was just making on the technicals for Nvidia at this point in the proceedings. Really feels like the germane one, because when it comes to the fundamental case, you know, what more is there to say? It is trading at a very expensive well, okay. An optically expensive valuation let's say. Right. You know, 2027 numbers. It actually looks reasonable. All this kind of stuff that analysts will will go through. But the stock chart itself and this is the challenge I think for a lot of, you know, portfolio managers who oftentimes are more fundamentally biased is if you look at the chart for a lot of the names, you know, metas in this group that have just had these huge runs, you need to take a look around and ask yourself, like, not only where is the next bid, but what is constructive, you know, as technical analysts would say about this setup. Right? Like, why has this stock worth this ot of time, and therefore there's going to be a large incremental base of new buyers. And the Nvidia even the line chart here shows very clearly that while, you know there's some shades of gray, there, the base between the highs and 21 to what we saw in 2023, there's a lot of folks there for two years made no money in Nvidia. And then you have the AI trade come along and all of a sudden you've got this, you know, pop up several hundred percentage points. But you know Jared, it feels like you mean you taught me years ago. You can correct through price or time. And it feels like Nvidia at a minimum needs some time in this low 100 and 20s after the split. >> Yeah, it makes sense, you know, the earnings catalyst seems like Nvidia gets 1 or 2 big pops a year. So maybe it's already had its share. But you know, the elephant in the room is that Nvidia is the elephant in the room, there's the concentration we're seeing in the market here has never been higher. You go back to the great Depression. So we are in uncharted territory. And it's logical to think, well, what happens if this one stock falters? Well today Nvidia is in the red and you got five other mega-caps in the green. So it's all right. But I mean what if they falter. I think it's a legitimate argument. And it's a concern. But the market can you know it can stay concentrated for far longer than you or I can remain solvent. >> Yeah. Well, you know that last point I'm peaking your screen here, the Wi-Fi interactive, of the names that are, you know, moving the market higher today overall. And, you know, I just put a story up on Yahoo Finance. Nothing else to do in this office. No meetings, no nothing. Right. So let's do some work. All the all the stocks leading the proceedings today, and you put something in our slack about the stocks making intraday record highs pretty much every stock, you would think, with the exception of Nvidia. But it feels like from a portfolio management perspective investors are looking around right now and saying man I'm getting killed right now. I'm getting trounced by the benchmark. I can't keep pace with the S&P 500. We've seen periods like this over time. Early 2020 was actually one of them. We saw a lot of this in 2021 where investors, you know, portfolio managers will just kind of, you know, take their medicine and say, I guess I need to own more meta. I guess it's I'm not going to get in trouble. I'm not going to get in trouble. Right. Owning more Amazon, owning more, Google owning more. Apple. You know, a name that's been a laggard this year. And a lot of rules that investors are beholden to will prevent them from certain concentrations. They can't keep pace with the S&P because they can't even own these stocks in the right percentages, etc, etc. but right now, I think a lot of folks are at the halfway point. The S&P was up 15. They might have been up a lot less than that. And they're figuring, how can I make up the difference here? And you're not. Again, you're not going to get in trouble going into a meeting saying we have initiated overweight on meta. Everybody loves the story right now. Stock's up 5% on no news. >> Yeah. How much do you think Miles two is. Is it. You have a day like today where you got the big jobs report. And it seemed to just confirm the same story, the same narrative we've been telling for a while. It's cooling. It's not crashing, but it's cooling. Yeah. Inflation is moderating. Maybe gives Jay Powell some cover to cut. Not July, but fall. It's the same narrative. So maybe I'll just stick with what's been working. Absolutely. >> Stick with it. Stick with what's defensible. And I think the thing that bears are probably excited about in this environment is it's like, let's just run it back with the same story from last time. These are the hyperscalers. These are going to be the winners in AI lower rates. That means good for speculative tech. That means more startups. That means more people buying services from Amazon, etc, etc. all on down the chain. And like, do you really want to be buying these stocks at record highs because you hope there's going to be a VC investment cycle, which means they have to buy more chips. They need more services. I'm not sure. Like I'm not sure that's the logic, but I see the tape today and I don't really know what else. Right. You're thinking there other than this worked. Let's run it back. And you know, maybe this is my new idea today, but look, no one's here, so maybe none of this really matters, right? Like, no, it's also Friday, July 5th and earnings season is about to start. And you've got corporate buybacks kind of slowing down here because the calendar I mean maybe none of this really matters. But it does feel like we are grasping at reasons to stay constructive. Or strategists are grasping at reasons to stay constructive in a market that is really just about AI. Any way you cut it, cost is up 32, Newegg is up 22. Keith Skillz's the only other story in the market that's what's interesting is this kind of has echoes of 2021 when it feels I mean, Jared, it's crazy like, this feels so much like 2021, and maybe it resolves in a different direction. All the details feel a little bit different, but like the vibe out there in general, you know, I log on to my fidelity. I'm like, I'm an idiot for not owning this stuff. That's 2021. That's 2021 stuff. All right Myles thank you. >> As always. It's stocks set for new all time highs on as investors have embraced the prospect that the June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a rate cut. For more on what this means and for what this means for your portfolio, let's welcome in John Sophus Oppenheimer, chief investment strategist John, thank you for joining us here today. We've been waxing poetic about Fridays and jobs and everything else. Just what's your what's your first blush take on the jobs report. This morning, >> came in fine as far as I'm concerned. >> When we looked at it. You know, if it's anything that it states very clearly to us is jobs remains resilient, even though we have seen slowing off the higher numbers that we used to get. The that's not that that has to be expected. The fed has raised 11 times, and has been on pause for eight times now since March of 22nd through today. When you look at it, essentially the fed has done the job. They have a little bit further to go. 2% target on inflation remains somewhat elusive. But in the meantime they have yet to push the economy into a recession. That resilience shows in business. It shows even in the consumer, and it certainly shows up in the job postings. So the economy appears to be larger than the negative. PitchBook at this time. And we say we think that's good for equities. >> And John, what is your UN target for the S&P 500 here. >> My year end target has been exceeded twice this week in terms of the closing price. It's been exceeded several times in the last 5 or 6 days. But those were inter market moves. But closing prices twice now in succession. And it looks like it's going to happen again today, we'll be we'll be reviewing our target over the weekend. That's all I can say. Whether we will whatever we'll do with it. You'll find out on Monday. >> Can I can I ask you your honest opinion here about these targets? These price targets? A lot of times they're for 12 months or end of the year. What do you what do you say to investors with how serious should investors be taking thes? >> Well, I think the most important thing that we'd have to think of here, Jared, is that the importance of the target really is it's kind of the fun part of the game for strategists and the and the press. As well as investors who like to see what it is in terms of what's the direction. That's what really counts. Are you looking for gains this year or not? We started this year. Well, last year in December, we put in a 5200 target for the S&P 500. For this year. It was one, if not the highest target on the stree. People thought we were nuts. It was exceeded sometime in the first quarter. We raised it at that time to 5500. And now we've got to think about what we're going to do from here, and it's our our targets are based on, very much on fundamentals. It has to be the trends that we see both in economic data as well as in revenue growth and earnings growth, primarily in the S&P 500 as it right now is the leading index. And the way this economy is structured. >> And John, you mentioned earnings earnings season is here next week. The big banks John broadly what are you expecting from this earnings season? >> I think we'll probably get a continuation of the trends we've been seeing in the big banks with the big banks, surprising often to the upside at least 1 or 2 names. With results likely to be coming in from both, trading, as well as from asset management. Related to, lending facilities and commercial bank operations. We'll have to see what that looks like with the consumer slowing somewhat. But overall, we're looking for a positive print on the banks with upside surprise likely. That said, look for it to be mixed. And if the market does what it's done in the fourth quarter, in the first quarter earnings season and likely this earnings season, a good result could easily be sold because the traders will say, well, we bought the rumor we're selling on the news, and then maybe in a couple of weeks they may very well buy it back. If you look at the performance of the financials, it's improving. And we think that's because we're moving towards normalization. >> We've got a pretty big weekend when it comes to interviews. President Biden is expected to address the nation, I wondering does the election pose substantial risk for investor investors? I mean, one day aside, maybe, you know, a ten basis point move in the ten year aside, are there real is there real headline risk from the election? That's coming, that's coming up at least as, as of today, where we currently know, no matter what the noise is around the first debate, we at least know who the candidates are going into the weekend, >> and we'll have to see how things go forward. But, you know, we know what Biden does. We know what Trump is. Trump can do, as a result of that, with that, we've seen with both, with, with Trump, if you remember, in 2016 when he won the election, initially the market thought, oh, he's going to be terrible for the market down. They thought about it for about 15 minutes, and they decided that that wasn't the case. And they bid stocks higher. Similarly, with Biden, there was some worry because it was, it was, you know, the going by the time we got to, Biden's inauguration, you had, the Democrats were in control of the Senate, and they were also in control of the white House. And they had the house was relatively a narrow, gain of Republicans. And the thought was, what is it going to be? And it's been a really good year for the stock market. So I think ultimately, fiscal policy is the area where it could be perhaps worrisome with either of the two presidents, the current president and the past president, but when the when the rubber meets the road, people are getting more practical, as we've seen, in the volatility that we've experienced over the course of the last few years, that indeed, policy makes a difference. The fed policy, we think, is the way to go, fiscal policy worries a little bit because a lot of times it pays more attention to constituencies that need to be served and doesn't consider things like, the, the immense amount of debt that the U.S. has and the implications of spending. But overall, I'm sorry to go on. So long overall, what the market really cares about revenue and earnings growth. That's really what the market cares about. >> I've been in this love to get back to fundamentals here. We'll see. We'll see what happens next week. Always appreciate your insights and thank you for stopping by on a quiet Friday afternoon. I have a meeting coming up, a deep dive into Amazon's growth story. The tech giant reached a record high of $200 this week for the first time ever, a good sign for CEO Andy Jassy, who's been in the job for three years. We'll discuss what could potentially drive the stock to further heights. Do not go anywhere. >> From its start as an online bookstore to its rise in e-commerce and cloud computing, Amazon has become one of the world's most iconic brands. In 2023, the tech juggernaut generated over $575 billion in revenue and boasted more than 200 million Amazon Prime members worldwide. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into some of the company's biggest moments. Amazon was founded in 1994 by Jeff Bezos in his garage in Bellevue, Washington. The company was originally conceived as an online bookstore designed to compete with Barnes and Nobl. On May 15th, 1997, Amazon went public via IPO at $18 per share. One year later, the company began selling CDs, marking the start of its effort to become a shopping Goliath. In 2005, Amazon launched Amazon Prime, a $79 per year membership with free two day shipping on eligible orders a year later, Amazon launched Amazon Web Services. The platform would go on to become the top cloud computing service, ahead of those from rivals Microsoft and Google, and one of Amazon's most successful businesses. In 2011, Amazon rebranded its video service as Amazon Instant Video with access to 5000 movies and TV shows for Prime members. Three years later, Amazon acquired the video game streaming website Twitch for $970 million. Amazon then acquired high end supermarket chain Whole Foods in 2017 for $13.7 billion. It has since integrated the two companies, offering discounts for Prime members on September 4th, 2018, Amazon became just the second US company ever to reach a $1 trillion market cap after Apple reached it earlier in the year. Amazon sales and profits surged during the Covid 19 pandemic in 2020, as consumers turned to online shopping. In 2021, Bezos announced that he would step down from his role as CEO and be succeeded by AWS CEO Andy Jassy. In 2024, Amazon was added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing drugstore giant Walgreens. The company continues to evolve, investing billions in AI startup anthropic, developing more smart home products and launching an AI shopping assistant named Rufus. It's safe to say Amazon is a staple of the digital age. >> Another eventful week for the meme trade. Roaring Kitty revealing his 6.6% stake in chewy and cost stocks skyrocketing more than 140% on Wednesday. So what's next for meme stocks? And what does it all mean for retail investors? We're bringing in just the man to talk about this Tasty live CEO Tom Sosnoff, for answers. Tom, it is always good to see you. You know, big, big picture. Tom. In 2021, when I was talking about meme stocks, I don't know if I would have thought skip ahead, you know, to July 2024, I'd still be talking about roaring Kitty and Dave Portnoy and meme stocks. I mean, I guess I would have been surprised if you've told me that. Are you surprised, Tom, that this is still a trend, a theme that we're talking about? >> Well, obviously, I think I'm in the same camp as you. I would have been if you had told me three years later from 2021, we'd still be talking about this in 2024. I think I would be super surprised. But then again, okay, I'll throw another angle at you. Maybe just the term meme stock. And it's not just like the GM's and the Chewy's, you know? I mean, was Nvidia a meme stock? You know, for an institutional meme stock? I'm not sure if that's just the new the new term that may stick, you know, for anything that's kind of, you know, out of control. >> So a problem of taxonomy. All right. Putting that aside for a second, I was just we were just talking about with our head of news here that we got we're feeling 2021 vibes. And stick with me. We got these mega-caps stocks heavy concentration favoring just a handful of stocks. And then out of the blue we get this retail explosion in certain names. We saw GameStop and Keith Gill filing a 13 G. Now that's that's a game changer too. And chewy are you seeing any any similarities here. >> Well of course I mean, first of all there's two stories here. The first story is the whole Keith Gill roaring Kitty thing. It's an extraordinary story for retail investors because somebody did something incredibly different than, than than it's ever been done before. And I mean, not to. Many retail investors turned $50 million into some couple of hundred million. God knows how much money he has. But it's really never been done before. So that in itself is an unbelievable story. But the other side to it, I think, is you bring up a great point. You know, I mean, what does this mean? Is this a repeat of 2021? Because if you remember, we normalized in 2022 and it was a pretty dark year for the markets. And I think you are seeing you know, you may be seeing some capitulation upside capitulation. You may be seeing kind of some euphoria. I don't know if we can, you know, can we maintain these levels or will we normalize, especially in volatility, especially in all the indexes and everything else. So yeah, I'm going to answer your question and say it's a little like 2021. Not as extreme but a little bit like it. >> Tom I'm just curious for folks who are listening right now and they're hearing us discussing, you know, roaring Kitty and the meme stocks and the moves and they want to play it. They want in. Tom, what guidance would you give? Is there any kind of just general, guidance, advice, tips and tricks? >> Well, you know, a tasty we, you know, we're like the third largest derivatives boutique. So we, we specialize in, in options when it comes to stocks like those, you know, most, most of our, customers and most of our trades are in the option marketplace. And most people that trade things like chewy and GameStop and things that have, you know, let's call these these are pure asymmetrical plays, right? You're just, you know, you want to risk one to make ten or something like that. And so a lot of people use the option marketplace for that. And I would just be careful in the sense that the markets in there, even though these stocks are very liquid and even though they have a ton of trade, the markets aren't great. They're a little wide. And you have to be careful about, you know, you have to be careful because some of the upside call skew is ridiculous. And if you're not used to upside call skew, it just means that calls are priced more expensive than the puts. And so it's where the velocity of risk is deemed to be. So that's the only thing I would watch out for is just be careful about the upside call skew. >> All right. We always appreciate a good risk management discussion. Give you the floor here. Anything else you want to tell investors could be about retail stocks. Just about anything. >> Well, you know, as we wind down for kind of I'm sure you guys are dealing with the same stuff we're dealing with today. It's just a weird week. You know, when you have a half day on Wednesday and a day off on Thursday, it's kind of it's a it's a weird breakup, but we haven't, I don't think we've experienced, you know, this kind. It's been a long time since we haven't seen, you know, a downtick. I think it's been three, almost 350 days since we've had a 2% drawdown in the S&P. And I think we've gotten to the point where, you know, we're a little frothy, as we like to say, the ducks are quacking. So just be careful, all right? >> The ducks are quacking. We're going to leave it on that note. Thank you for the visual and the audio as well. Tom Sazonov, as always. Thank you. >> Have a great weekend guys. >> And it is time now for some trending tickers. First up is Tesla shares are higher this afternoon putting them on track to extend their longest winning streak in over a year. And this comes as a car manufacturer beat on quarterly deliveries earlier this week. But Josh this is really a momentum story. And if we go to the Wi-Fi interactive I want to chart what's going on in Tesla, but also the entire EV space. So here's Tesla I've been tracking this inverse head and shoulders pattern that finally played out. And now we've got this multiple day rally to the upside. But more broadly look at the year to date in Tesla versus and some of the bigger ones versus everything else. You got this corner of stocks down there. When I do equal weight you just see that's most of the stocks right there. And they are down a significant amount. So hasn't been the best year for some of the smaller players in EV. But now we see Tesla. Guess what. Tesla is just breaking into even. >> You can see it's up point that edging into the green 0.7% for the year. Battling back. You know the stock's been rallying of course this week reported deliveries for the second quarter beat estimates. Investors liked it. We did speak to Dan Ives over at Wedbush Tesla bull. You know Ives came on the show pounded the table said listen the worst is in the rear view mirror for Tesla. Very importantly said it appears China saw mini rebound in the June quarter. Of course, in just a couple of weeks. Now, a few weeks you got China. Tesla's big report. So we'll be watching closely for that. We will. Another name we are on watch for here. Check out Boeing. That company will soon know whether its horrible 2024 is about to get even worse. Shares are actually up fractionally here. About 4/10 of a percent. But a crucial deadline is coming up here. Jared and the Journal I thought had a good piece kind of framing this story in which they said, listen, Boeing has to either plead guilty or argue a trial. Why it's innocent of a crime. It already said it committed, does it sound like great options? I mean, either way you play, you plead guilty. Of course, that's another hit to a company that's already taken a big reputational hit and sounds like there would be fines. There would be an independent, independent compliance monitor, not what any company, by the way, of course, wants to deal with. But as the Journal notes, you know, that likely would put an end to the criminal liability on the other hand, you could fight it. You could go to trial, of course. Trial. Who knows what happens. >> I think they just settle. And we got some pretty good estimater what that could mean. So first of all, here's the theoretical maximum securities fraud exposures $28 billion, 28 billion. But they're probably not going to come anywhere close to that because it's a settlement. People settle the settlement value. This is Bloomberg Intelligence could be closer to 600 to 700 million. That's Bloomberg Intelligence, you know, so Boeing violated a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement, if this were a person, I would think they're facing jail time. But maybe this is just another 600 to 700 million. May not sound like a slap on the wrist, but when you consider the totality of the situation, at least in my mind, it seems low. Yeah. >> All right, we'll see how it plays out. >> All right. We're also watching the cryptocurrencies this afternoon. Bitcoin sliding after collapsed exchange Mount Gox is beginning to purportedly pay back the nearly $9 billion in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash it owes to customers from its bankruptcy back in 2014. Now the crypto exchange platforms like Coinbase are falling on the news. And a simple question might be why is this happening? Why is the value of Bitcoin falling? Well, you have 140,000 bitcoins at this trustee has over in Japan. When they start distributing those to customers, a lot of customers are going to say, well, I want to convert this to cash. So they sell the bitcoin and then they buy the US dollar or whatever their local currency is. So that's what places potential pressure. But it doesn't have to separately over in Germany I think there's a trustee there who's going to distribute something like 50,000 bitcoins. That's a lot of money. So you know, another couple of billion dollars there. So this does tend to weigh on prices. And I think, you know, the technicals in Bitcoin not looking very good. Real quick on the Wi-Fi interactive I like to draw this at least once a day. Here we go. This is the year's price action. And now we are below. We've dipped below before but quickly recovered. Doesn't look like that's happening today. But give it another day or so. >> And then you said, well, what's the cast to get this one moving in the right direction? Again with a dovish fed do it get cut or two. >> You know I think a dovish fed is actually Bitcoin positive historically. So that could have something to do with it. You know is Bitcoin the inflation edge I don't think we have enough time for that discussion. Actually we don't have enough time for that discussion. >> We'll make room. We'll make room. It'll be on the podcast tune in. >> Yeah. Well we got takeaways too. >> So all right Macy's let's check that one. Receiving some love. And investor group seeking to buy Macy's has raised its buyout offer for second time. Square the Wall Street Journal. So this per the Journal again reporting that arkhouse management Jared brigade Capital Management have raised their buyout offer for the company to about 6.9 billion. Investors are offering 2484 Macy's shares they don't already own. And Macy's, pop in today, though still down so far this year. >> Yeah. Not I mean, Macy's is just kind of a shell of a company that it used to be. There is no way around that, $6.9 billion. That is a song compared to previous, you know, valuations and, and prior years. So I think yeah, this is going to face this is going to be a tough decision for the Macy's board. They got away a lot. You know at least they got the parade still. Yeah. >> Well that's something. Remember earlier this year Macy's said it would put two of Arkhouse nominees on its board. Kind of so ended the proxy battle. So I know listen lots of headlines. We'll see how this one ends up coming up. An investors guide to fixed income. Our next guest tells us the best way to build a portfolio with maximum benefits. You're watching market domination. >> With a rich history dating back to the 19th century, Eli Lilly has faced struggles and successes. But a booming market cap has quickly turned it into the biggest pharmaceutical brand in the world. Let's dive into Lilly's biggest moments with Beyond the Ticker. The company was founded in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly, a pharmaceutical chemist and Union Army veteran. Lilly experienced huge growth before and after World War One, including the expansion of its Indianapolis facility. In 1923, the company began selling I-listen to treat diabetes, the world's first commercial insulin product. Then, in 1952, Lilly became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange. In 1971, Lilly acquired cosmetic brand Elizabeth Arden for $38 million, eventually turning it into a financial success. It sold Arden to Fabergé for $657 million in 1987. Fast forward to 2009, when Lilly faced a fine of over $1.4 billion. The largest in U.S. history for illegally marketing its blockbuster mood disorder drug Zyprexa. It wasn't until 2022 that Lilly hit the jackpot with Tirzepatide, a new type of Glp1 product sold as Manjaro for type two diabetes. It began competing with Novo, Nordisk's, Ozempic Zep Bam, the same formula as Manjaro was approved for obesity in 2023 and began competing with Novo's Wegovy. The tour's appetite drugs have spiked, Lilly's stock by nearly 100% in the past year. In 2024, Lilly continues to reach all time highs and is currently the biggest healthcare company in the world, with a market cap of well over $800 billion. Wall Street projects the GLP one alone will net Lilly $13 billion this year. It's why Lilly is on track to make history as the first trillion dollar healthcare company. Why drops double digits for Bitcoin. >> Unexpectedly hits record highs. We're unpacking the catalysts. >> Driving daily market action and explaining the chain reaction. Why are oil prices trending lower? Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions? >> Or why a company's stock is up even though it missed on earnings? Insight from top strategists, economists and business leaders will help you make the smartest choices for your portfolio. This is catalys. Tune in daily at 10 a.m. Eastern on Yahoo Finance. >> Discount home goods retailer Big Lots announcing it is planning to close more stores this year and may be forcing permanent closure, revealing elevated inflation has put a damper on customers buying power. This is resulting in big losses for the company and substantial doubt. That's a quote about its ability to continue operations. Josh, this is a stock that has been under a lot of pressure. They're closing retail locations and I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive here. We have a discount retail heat map. You can't even see Big Lots. That's how small of a company is become, I can show you if I sort by equal weight. Here it is 42.8 million. That is, that is a very small amount. You look at the year to date totals here. It's been rough for a lot of these dollar stores. All these, that's up 30, but DG Dollar General down 6. Dollar tree down 25. Yeah. >> Just reading through the headline Jared. So they have around 1400 stores apparently nationwide still. But to your point listen they closed about 50 stores in 2023. Now plan to close about 40 stores this year. And the stock has been clobbered clearly. Yes. All right. Moving on. The fixed income market could get interesting this election season. Following last week's presidential debate, the benchmark ten year yield rose six points to 4.34. We're looking at how to navigate the big picture on bonds with the Yahoo finance playbook. And joining us now to discuss is Kevin Nicholson, riverfront Investment Group global fixed income CIO Kevin, it's good to see you. So actually I'm interested to get your take. First of all on just the big economic news today, that jobs report. Kevin, what did you make of it? What do you think the fed makes of it? >> I didn't make a whole lot of it because we've got a lot of gotten a lot of mixed data over the last couple of weeks, as far as the fed is concerned, I think that the fed will look at that information. However, the fed is more focused on, core PCE. And I think that that's where their focus is going to be, it core PCE dipped in May, and only Rose, what was it, point 1, point 1% month over month, however, in June, it's supposed to rise is forecast to rise at 0.21% month over month. And then in July at 0.22, month over month. So if you just hold that June level for the rest of the year, you're going to get core PCE at 2.95. And I think that is more important to the fed than the jobs report right now. >> We got the ten year, it was only it was at 4.5% a few days ago. Now it's closer to 4.25% just a couple bips away. And there you see a year to date chart. Just wondering where do you think the ten year stops now? So it's been traveling down for a few days. Do we get support at 4.25? What does this mean for the market? >> Well, I think that if we're going to see the ten year drop below that, we need to from a technical standpoint, it needs to break through 420. And, thus far it hasn't been able to do that, I think that in order for the ten year to go lower, you're going to have to see something break or we're going to have to have a more risk off, market, right now, I think that the ten year is pretty much range bound. Between 4 and 4.5. For the second half of the year. I think that if we get the fed to, pull back and, and, and delay their rate cuts, we'll see the ten year go back into that 4.35 to 450 range, however, if they do begin to cut, I think that we're going to be closer to the bottom end of my range of 4. Closer to 4. By year end. >> So, Kevin, let's see your watch right now. You're a viewer, you're invested in treasuries. What's your advice, Kevin? What's your guidance? >> So we own treasuries in our portfolios, but it's at the back end of the curve. And we did that actually through strips. But for the general portion of our portfolio and the, we would actually look at the 3 to 10 year part of the curve. We like taking credit risk over interest rate risk. So we want to buy those corporate, those, companies, bonds that are, that are investment grade that are going to give us an additional yield of about 100 basis points in the investment grade world, so we're want to lock in yields that are above 5, and then in the non-investment grade world, when we think about high yield, we want to stay at the front end of the curve. But we want to be able to get, you know, pick up an incremental, you know, 300 basis points or so, and we only recommend a high yield for those clients that have a longer time horizon beyond five years. But that client that has a time horizon inside of five years, we're focused on the investment grade credits. >> So for high yield, can I read anything into that, are you concerned about some short term dynamics here where you would recommend you have to have some strength or you got to hold for five years? >> Well, I think when I think about high yield, what I'm really focused in on are looking at those, those companies that are in the upper echelon of high yield. So their double B rated, companies that have the opportunity to be able to move up into investment grade, get upgraded. And so, that is where we have been focused, because when we think of high yield, there are some companies that are basically fallen angels, as they like to refer to them. They were once investment grade. They fallen into Non-investment grade, and they now rightsized their business, and they're starting to do better and can get moved back up into the investment grade arena. And so that's why we like the high yield there. But we want to we put it in those clients portfolios that have a longer time horizon, just in case it may take longer for that turnaround. >> Kevin, I'm curious, election front and center ABC has its interview with President Biden tonight. I'm just curious, Kevin, how much are your clients asking you about the election and what are you telling them right now? >> Well, our clients aren't asking us anything about the election right now. And to be quite honest, we will tell them that the election really doesn't make a difference in financial markets. It will. It's good headline grabbing news, but oftentimes it will, have a very small impact on financial markets, so, you know, for our from our standpoint, from an investing standpoint, we're not focused on in, on the election, the one thing that I would have to say, you know, we possibly will get after the election a steepening yield curve, and that's largely is going to be dependent on the fed. And, so we think that the fed is going to remain independent. So I don't see a candidate, either candidate being able to force, the fed to move. So really it's not going to have an impact on the election. From my vantage point, Kevin, we got under a minute. >> I'll give you the floor here, any final words for investors? >> Oh, I think that, if I had to think of anything for investors, for fixed income, I think that they need to lock in these higher rates while you can, a lot of money has been sitting on the sidelines or have been invested in money markets over the past year, plus. Well, if and when the fed does begin to cut rates, those that front end of the curve, those short maturities, you're no longer going to be able to reinvest at those, those higher yields that you're seeing, you know, that have been north of 5. So that's why we're stressing move out on the curve. And that 3 to 10 year part of the curve and try to lock in using credit. Markets to get that five plus percent yield because it's not going to be there, once the, the fed finally does, begin to cut rates. >> Kevin, always good having you on the program. Have a great weekend. >> Thanks. You too. >> And while wrapping up today's market domination, don't go anywhere. We've got you covered with all the action following the closing bell. Stay tuned for market domination over time. That is the closing bell on Wall Street. And now it's market domination. Overtime. Let's get you up to speed on the action from today's trade. Jared, what are you seeing? >> Well, I think what stands out here is small caps in the red that is today. And also the week. Let's just cover that. First we are seeing small caps down 1% over the week. Now you contrast that with the Nasdaq composite up 9/10 of a percent over these four days. Up 3.5. This is going to be now ten of the last 11 weeks. The Nasdaq Composite has been up. So that is just a really big amount. And then you look at the sector action. It's still about the mega caps. Look at that communication services. That is the home of Meta and Alphabet. That's number one. Then number two is staples. So kind of a defensive play maybe. But then consumer discretionary is third health care. Anyway. It's an interesting mix at the top here. And I think the Nasdaq 100 tells a big story here. Nvidia is down. Yes but meta is up 6. Lots and lots of dark green especially in the mega caps. That's the outperformance. >> How much of this is sort of we were talking about this earlier. In your opinion. You got more economic day to day. You got the big jobs report. And how much of it is kind of just confirming the story we've been telling ourselves anyway about an economy. It's cooling, it's moderating, but it's not crashing. And maybe Jay Powell feels like, oh, you know, I got the cover to make a cut. Not July but coming. Yeah I think that's a big part of it. >> Nothing today upset the narrative and the prevailing narrative is stocks are going up. And this is as we've been talking about, the ten most bullish days of the year at least when you consider beginnings a month and ending a month. That's right now. So this is supposed to be a bullish time of the year. Not a lot of traders at that desk, at their desk. And so we do think see things tend to rise if we're in the bear market I would expect stocks to maybe go down. But you know the prevailing trend is definitely up. >> And didn't you teach me to share a little about seasonality and how right now, at least right now, we're kind of in the sweet spot for as a tailwind for the Bulls. Yeah, we're still we're coming off some really good seasonality. >> We don't have any big impediments to it. But we're not going to get any tailwinds from basically. So the middle of July into the beginning of November, you don't have those tailwinds. So anything can happen, and then when the November election takes place, guess what? Magically, the seasonality kicks back in. But yeah, there's a couple months there of maybe 3 or 4 months when things get a little dicey. And, you know, we don't have that map. >> All right, let's get another perspective here because joining us to help us break down this four day trading week, which include a couple of fresh record highs, is Kayla Cedar State Street Global Markets macro multi-asset strategist Kayla, it is good to see you. It seems like Kayla, what you're suggesting is when you look at the big jobs report today and other, you know, economic data, you've been reviewing, you seem to be saying, Kayla, you see an economy that okay, it's cooling. It's moderating, but it's still, in your opinion, looking fairly and relatively resilient and strong here. >> Yeah. Thank you so much for having me. You know I think that's that's definitely right. We have this kind of moderation that's going on, this, direction towards moderation. But the actual level is still quite strong. And so, you know, I think what that means is as we're assessing this data, we have to put some of this moderation into context. And so, yes, you have, a headline figure in the NFP print today, that was still above pre-COVID norms. But then you do see some signs of weakness underneath. However, if we take a step back, wage growth is still quite strong. JOLTS data implies that, you know, there are more jobs available, job openings rather than there are folks unemployed. And so when you bring this back to monetary policy, yes, this means September is live. But thus far it looks like the economy is still perhaps too strong to accept or expect a cut in the near term. >> Do you think it's just too strong? Period. And we might see a risk of re-acceleration up, which would mean maybe the fed is on pause a lot longer than people thought, or gasp even has to raise rates that seem to be a possibility a few months ago, but admittedly, it's been priced down quite a bit from then. >> Yeah. You know, I think it has been priced down because the data has started to move in the direction towards easing and moderation. So that means that the bar for a hike is higher than the bar for a cut. With that said, though, I think you point out a really important factor to consider is that the fed certainly does not want to cut and then have to hike again. And so I think that's why when we look at the underlying data, especially in the CPI prints, we want to start to see services and housing make progress back towards 2. Because otherwise there is that risk of re-acceleration. >> Kayla, another big economic data point next week CPI, what are you looking for there Kayla. What's your what's your expectation. >> Yeah you know one thing that we have, insight into at State Street is we have price stats, which is a daily measure of goods inflation. And so when we look at the progress made on goods inflation, thus far, that's really what has led a lot of this disinflationary move lower. And so I think that means two things. One, we need to start seeing more progress on the services and housing side. And we also can't see goods Reaccelerate. And so what we're seeing thus far is that goods inflation is continuing to move lower. We are seeing disinflation continue. And so that's a good sign moving into next week. But again we also really need to start seeing those housing OER figures start to come down. And we'll also be looking for a continuation lower in super core as well. >> What are the big macro headlines that you might be a little bit concerned about? Things, not necessarily front and center right now. Could be geopolitics. Could be election. The things that might cause some, perturbance in the market in the months to come. >> You know, I think the market does have this habit of getting ahead of itself. And so that's what makes this transmission of or, I would say this movement in some of the data hard to grapple with because we do see weakening. But is it weakness? And so I would caution folks from getting too excited about some signs of moderation and interpreting it as weakness and expecting too many cuts, unless we're really going to start pricing in a recession, which thus far looks unlikely, it's going to be hard for the fed to really deliver this. Really, this large magnitude of cuts. And so it's much more likely, I think, that we're going to see a shorter and relatively shallow cutting cycle. >> So, Kayla, add it up for us. Given your view of the economy and the fed for investors listening right now in the stock market, Kayla, what do you prefer? >> Yeah, I really prefer still large cap quality growth, which really still means tech as we approach earnings season, which is going to be kicking off next week, it really does look like tech is where majority of the earnings growth is going to be. As we look forward to the rest of the year, expectations are that earnings will continue to accelerate, but revenues will decelerate a little bit and so when we think about okay, what does that mean for sector allocation. That's really an okay story for tech. Because what that means is they can still support profit margins without some of this revenue growth given their borrowing costs given their cash flows, things like that. And so they're very well, bolstered to navigate that kind of environment. >> All right. Got to leave it there. But appreciate your insights here on this quiet Friday afternoon. Thank you Kayla, thanks so much for having me and coming up the road ahead for automakers. While carmakers reported modest sales growth for the second for three quarters, experts foresee challenging times on the horizon. We're going to unpack potential risks driving a slowdown for the industry in the back half of this year. That is up next. >> Automakers reporting modest sales growth. GM reporting its best quarterly sales in more than three years. Tesla seeing sales fall less than expected for the second quarter. However, looking to the second half of the year, the road ahead for automakers may be a rocky one. Cox automotive executive analyst and senior director of economic and industry insights Aaron Keating joins us now to discuss. Aaron is good to see you. So, maybe it's our big picture. You know, we did just hear, as we mentioned from GM and Ford and Tesla, just the 30,000 foot view. Aaron when you look at the U.S. auto industry, how healthy, how strong does it look to you? >> You know, I think we actually have to put it in perspective. And so far, I think we're seeing a pretty good year. We all knew that the uncertainty with the election, the climate, the interest rates keeping at high levels that we were going to be seeing potentially a slow growth this year, certainly the CDK outage in June didn't necessarily help us. The fact that the OEMs or the automakers have not come in with really high incentives like they were in the pre-pandemic, I think we're doing pretty well. >> What are margins looking like? We're talking about increased incentives here. We know that the automakers like to provide a little juice for the customers from time to time. How are margins faring? >> So admittedly, then Cox Automotive, we don't get terribly deep into the financials of the automakers. But again, we're seeing them starting to loosen some of the financial space they have on the cars as they try to move more metal off the parking lot. So we are going to we are anticipating that we'll see some more incentives coming forward, there's a lot of rate subvention that's having to happen right now because of the high interest rates. So we're hoping that they'll be able to give a little bit more of this back. It may come a little bit from the dealers margin and a little bit of sharing from the automakers margin as well. >> Aaron, let's talk about a trend. We talk we discuss a lot here. EV sales growth Aaron. Not what it used to be. I'm interested for the reasons you see for that Aaron. And what you think it would take to kind of jumpstart that. >> Well, I think, you know, what we have to remember is that some of the decline or a lot of the decline is actually coming out of Tesla's share. They were primarily the biggest competitor in the market. The only competitor in the market for a long time outside of Nissan and Chevy. But we see a lot more competitors coming in with some really compelling products as well as good incentives and of course, the tax credit. So I don't see that we say EV demand is completely falling off a cliff or anything. It's normalizing. And so as we see Tesla start to drop share, that's not alarming around the entire message for EVs, because the rest of the brands are actually starting to really lift in their EV sales. So while we may not be at 10% this year, we're going to hit awfully close to it. More hybrids are being sold, more EVs are being sold. This is all good for the transition to fully electrified vehicles in the future. So I'd say that we're still on a path to getting to an electrified future. It's just going to take us a little bit longer, and we're really excited about the fact that we finally have some additional players in the market providing some really good options for consumers. >> Let's talk about the some of those players in the market right now. I was just looking at the Wi-Fi interactive. I know you don't comment on stock prices, but what I'm going to show illustrates the big versus the small. These are this is a year to date, performance for a bunch of EV stocks. And Tesla just became positive today actually. But GM is up 30, Toyota is up 12, BYD is up 9. And then these little the a lot of the smaller players in EV just are not doing it. Rivian down 37. Lucid Motors down 30. Admittedly, China is its own story, but what do you think the difference is between some of the outperformance of these big guys versus the little guys? >> I think it's I think it's precisely that a story, the big guys versus the little guys. I do think that we anticipate Rivian starting to get a little bit more under its feet, especially with its new tie up with Volkswagen, and I do think that the automotive market will have to balance itself out. I mean, a lot of people forget that at the beginning of the last century, think we had over 1000 automakers, you know, and whittles down. So I think we may see more consolidation or more collaboration amongst some of the OEMs, and meaning some of the really small players might get swallowed up, perhaps a lot of them over in, in China, but even when you saw the Volkswagen and Rivian announcement, you see where they're starting to realize that collaboration in some areas is actually good for the rising tide helps all all ships. And of course, we may see a few like we saw with Fisker filing for bankruptcy. Some of them will go away from the market and that's okay. That's the speed of competition. Right. >> Aaron, get you out in this. You know, we talked about EVs. I also want to know what's going on with trucks. Aaron, broadly, I mean, what are the what are the trends and themes you're seeing there so broadly? >> I mean, trucks still make up a majority of our sales, but we are seeing that the smaller subcompact SUVs, compact trucks, and of course, sedans are starting to have a little bit of a renaissance here where a couple, you know, their share is going up just a little bit. But I don't see that we're going to transition to, going back where sedans are the primary winner in this market. So trucks are doing okay. They are stabilized, but we are seeing that the lower cost vehicles, which tend to be the smaller vehicles, are certainly pushing up in sales. And again, that comes back to the affordability challenge that we're seeing in the market that if they need a car, they need four wheels. They'll take what they can get. And if that happens to be a little bit slower than they anticipated or wanted, then that's what they'll grab for the newer used car and we will leave it there. >> Aaron Keating, thank you. >> Sure. No problem. >> And that's going to do it today for today's market domination over time, be sure to come back Monday at 3 p.m. eastern for all your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell, but don't go anywhere on the other side of the break. >> It's asking for a friend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market moving stories. You can get ahead of the themes affecting your money. Stay tuned. >> Warner Brothers Discovery, a company with deep roots in the entertainment industry for over a century, but it was only formed a short two years ago. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into the media giant's history as it grapples with legacy media challenges and looks to build its streaming business into a serious industry player. Warner Brothers was founded on April 4th, 1923, and quickly built itself into one of the Big Five American studios alongside Universal Pictures, Paramount Pictures, Walt Disney Studios, and Sony. In 1966, the Kinney National Company was formed. Its media division became Warner Communications. Meanwhile, discovery was founded in 1982 as the Cable Education Network. The Discovery Channel launched soon after that. In 1985. Five years later, Warner Communications was established as Time Warner. That followed a high profile merger with Time Inc. that created the largest media company at the time. Time Warner then went on to purchase the Turner Broadcasting System in a $7.5 billion deal. In 1996 that led to the acquisition of assets like HBO, CNN, and Turner Sports. Flash forward to 2018, and Time Warner was acquired by AT&T for $85.4 billion. It was renamed WarnerMedia. The two companies officially merged in 2022, after WarnerMedia was spun off by AT&T, joining forces with discovery in a deal valued at $43 billion. Trading began on the Nasdaq on April 11th, 2022, under the new ticker symbol Wbd. The stock opened at $24.08 a share. The joint company's first major project, the 2023 streaming launch of Max, which offered content from Warner Brothers, Discovery Channel, HBO, CNN, Cartoon Network, Animal Planet and more. Wbd is still aiming for a top spot in the ever evolving entertainment industry, with investors closely waiting for its next wave of innovation. >> Hello and welcome to asking for a trend. I'm Josh Lipton for the next half hour, we're going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of. So we're focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve. Here are some of the trends we're going to be diving into. It's been stock market Christmas in July. The major indices finished the week higher, setting new records as investors embraced the prospect that that June jobs report will push the Federal Reserve closer to a rate cut. But this is no surprise as July we know, has historically been one of the strongest months for the markets. Plus, the box office is back and sequels are the story of the summer once again with Despicable Me four and Inside Out two leading the charge. Can the sequels come to the rescue once again, an electric air taxis are nearing launch, and you could soon be flying above traffic for the same cost as an Uber, at least according to Joby Aviation. Madison Mills travel to jobs manufacturing facility and to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging sector. But we begin here with the summer box office, which is heating up with sequels leading 4th of July weekend. Inside Out two is crossing the $500 million mark domestically, and Despicable Me four opening strong on Wednesday with a gross of $27 million. We could also see a potential Barbenheimer 2.0 later this year. For more on the state of the box office, we're bringing in Paul Dear, Guardian Senior Media Analyst at comScore. Paul, it is good to see you. So maybe to start off kind of big picture here, Paul. You know the box office this summer. How we doing Paul? How healthy does it look to you relative to what we saw last summer? >> Well, Josh, if we were sitting here about a month and a half ago, I would have said, well, it's pretty bad because we got off to a rather slow start for the summer of 2024 with the fall guy, a great movie, but opened to $27.5 million. Compare and contrast that with the opening weekend of the summer in 23 with Guardians of the Galaxy Volume three opening to $118 million. We then had a rather slow Memorial weekend, and by rather slow, I mean one of the slowest Memorial weekends at the box office in history. But what a difference a month or a month and a half can make. And we saw signs of life in early June with Bad Boys Ride or Die opening beyond expectations at about $57.5 million. But then the big one, inside out to it opened about four weekends ago. It's coming into its fourth weekend. That film is at $1.12 billion in global box office as we speak. Josh pretty and we and now we have despicable Me four, already has earned almost $50 million domestically heading into its first weekend, having opened on Wednesday, those that the two day number is close to 50 million. We're expecting perhaps another 80 million at comScore this weekend for that film. And that could be 120, $130 million opening. Five days for Despicable Me four. So it is the summer of sequels, no doubt. More to come. >> So sounds like summer sequels, and maybe some better performances than maybe someone had initially expected. Paul, I'm just curious when you when you do though, look at the overall box office, the industry. Paul, how does it stack up pre-pandemic? >> Yeah, that's a that's a different story. And it really is the impact of course, the pandemic impacted everything in terms of box office. But we're we're definitely recovering. But then the strikes hit and that through the release calendar into disarray. And that effectively kind of, you know, it disrupted the calendar so much this year that we really didn't get started in terms of big box office to really June. I mean, we had some big movies early on, like Dune. Dune two and others. But we the comparisons to last year were really tough. So. Right now we're running about 18.8% behind last year, year to date at this point. But just about six weeks ago we were running down. We were down nearly 28. So in the course, what a difference a few movies and some time makes in terms of knocking down that year to date deficit of course we have twisters on the way. Deadpool and Wolverine is going to be the next $100 million opener of 2024 and Inside Out two. So far, the only movie to open with over $100 million domestically this year. But that's going to change here with, Deadpool and Wolverine and twisters I think is a total sleeper, although maybe not now because we're talking about it. >> Do you think Paul, though something kind of structurally has changed, though just bigger picture. There's just so much good content now at home, right? I mean, what I can stream, you know, thanks to, for example, Netflix. I don't know if you saw it. I mean, baby reindeer, amazing. Paul Wright, Ripley. Ripley. Incredible. And I don't own Netflix stock just for viewers. This is pure, pure you know, pure neutral reviews by Josh Lipton. But it's such good content Paul that's available now to the consumer. How much just harder it is to get Josh Lipton off his couch to schlep to a theater, which, by the way, isn't all that cheap either. >> Well, I think it's relatively inexpensive to other outside of the home activities. If you look at traveling, you know, to another, state, country island somewhere. It's very expensive to travel. Also sporting events, concerts, very expensive. If families are taking themselves and all the kids out this weekend to see Despicable Me four or Inside Out to again, it's a relative bargain. But apropos to what you asked, I think there is more selectivity on the part of consumers who have so much choice. And you just mentioned a lot of great shows. I love streaming as well, but you're not going to sit out going to the movie theater for a movie like Dune two, Inside Out two, Despicable Me four. I mean, it really is. That differentiator is that communal and immersive experience in theater. But I agree with you. It takes a lot more to get people off their couch and out to the movie theater. But when it happens, I mean, look at Barbenheimer last year that phenomenon you alluded to this in your opening was that, you know, Wicked and Gladiator two are opening on the same day, November 22nd. Could there be another Barbenheimer in the offing? I don't know that anything will be that, but certainly it's cool to have those two movies and you know, opening on that same date, and it creates a conversation around going to the movies. That's something you can only get going out to the movie theater. It's that communal experience. It also these experiences go viral. I mean, the movie theater is a hub of social influence, and we saw that play out with Barbie last year, certainly in Oppenheimer. And there's more good movies on the way. I think the fall and holiday are really loaded with great films. Got another Joker film coming out, you got Moana two, which was going to go streaming now going to the committed to the movie theater. A lot of other great movies and mix wicked, Gladiator two, among others. >> All right, Paul, you convinced me. Maybe I need to get out of the house. I have to get out of the house more often. My wife tells me the same thing. Paul, thank you so much for joining us. Have a great weekend. >> Thank you. Josh, you too have a good one. >> Coming up, flying taxis are closer than ever to reality. Yahoo finance spoke with industry investors, officials and analysts and traveled to Joby's manufacturing facility to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging sector. That is next. On asking for a trend. >> For more than six decades, the discount megastore Walmart has redefined retail. >> In 2023 alone, the company brought in more than $648 billion in revenue. Beyond the ticker takes a deep dive into the company's biggest moments. Walmart was founded in 1962 by Sam Walton. Its first location was in Rogers, Arkansas, five years later, the Walton family owned 24 stores and had racked up $12.7 million in sales. On October 1st, 1970, Walmart went public via an IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares opened at 1650 per share. The company opened its first Sam's Club in 1983, in Oklahoma, in a bid to compete with Costco's wholesale member only model in early 1988, founder Sam Walton stepped down as CEO and David Glass was named his successor. That same year, the first Walmart Supercenter opened in Washington, Missouri, creating what it's currently known for that mix of general merchandise and grocery. In 1996, Walmart opened its first location in China and surpassed $1 billion in sales for the year. Walmart.com launched in 2000, allowing US customers to shop online as Amazon.com began to take off to compete with Amazon, among other online retailers, Walmart introduced free two day shipping in 2017. During the pandemic, the retailer boomed as consumers sought out the Covid 19 vaccine and then cheaper groceries as inflation picked up in late March, Walmart's stock reached a record closing high of $61.45 per share, and it only keeps growing from here, with more than 10,500 stores in 19 different countries. >> The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes to end this holiday. Shortened week. Investors embracing the idea that the June jobs report may push the fed closer to that rate cut. Yahoo Finance's Jared Blikre joins us here with more on the trading day takeaways Jared. >> Well thank you. Josh I think the Mega-caps you know we talk about concentration. You can't talk about it enough. So I'm saying record Megacap highs. We had four today amid Christmas in July. That's a reference to this seasonality this bullish seasonality that we've had. So I'm not going to show any seasonality maps. But I do want to show the Mega-caps. And four out of these, four out of the seven Magnificent Seven posted records today, Microsoft, alphabet, Apple and meta. Amazon just missed it by less than a dollar in videos read there, but I just think that kind of tells the whole story there. We have this bullish seasonality. And what do markets have the tenacity to do go higher. And that's what we're seeing. >> Is it just big tech Jared. Is that all we have. No. And there's more to the story. >> Well you know I've been seeing software catch up recently. So I like Igv as a software ETF that just is just shy of record highs. So we are seeing it's kind of spread into some other areas. But is software that different from tech. You know, the whole AI story, let me just show you this is a Nasdaq 100 versus the Russell 2000. This goes all the way back to the late 1980s. Here is the dotcom bubble. And what you will notice is we are higher. So small caps are even at less of valuation. Premium to the large caps. And I'm using the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 as proxies. Then that tech bubble that we had 24 years ago. So something is a little bit different. All right Jared Blikre point number two intervention. Is it nigh in Japan. >> The nigh. Yes. You don't hear that word very often. >> You don't hear you know what. >> Also I like your intervention. You could just make a portmanteau out of that. I did bring some charts and here we have the Japanese ten year bond versus its target range. So in purple we have the bond. This goes back to 2016 2017. And these blue dotted lines that is the Bank of Japan. That's where they're trying to keep it contained. As you'll notice here, they're not really keeping it contained. They keep trying to keep it in there. But then they are forced to capitulate. And as they are playing this as this is playing out, the yen has been weakening, the yen has been weakening. >> Talk to me about the yen. How does that play into the story? >> The yen has been weakening to levels that we haven't seen since 1986. So this is the US dollar versus the yen, and let me put a max chart on. So you'll see this goes back to the late 1990s, and here we are. We are at the highest point that we've seen on this entire chart. Torsten Slok, Apollo chief global economist. He says that the yen would be at 140. It's at 160 now, it would be at 140 if the if the Bank of Japan were not pulling all these levers. So there's a big there's a big dislocation in there. And the worry is, is that there's this dislocation that kind of hits the market all at once. You spread things out. Generally it's okay, but sometimes, you get you hit some problems here if it all comes at once last point, you know, we got to talk about crypto. Crypto never sleeps. And we are facing another, what, two day 48 hours here without prices in in but not in crypto. So I've been tracking this crypto crash that we've had kind of a big deal because Bitcoin itself has broken through a trading range that is held for seven several months. Here I'm going to get our crypto heat map up. And there we go. So you'll see Bitcoin in the red for 3. It kind of broke down yesterday. And we got this news about Mongox. We also have Germany. >> All in all something like bearish headlines yet short 290,000 bitcoins. >> So you multiply this price times 190,000. You're going to get 10 billion something like that. That is a potential maximum amount of selling that's going to hit the market. It doesn't mean it's all going to happen at once. But I think it's instructive that we are breaking down through this range. So Bitcoin kind of famous for false breakdowns. If we're back above 60,000 by Monday I would say that's another one. But probably that is not my base case. So I think we're in some for a little bit more prolonged downturn here with respect to crypto overall. >> All right. >> Levels to watch. Thank you Jared thank you. Appreciate it. You could be flying above traffic to the airport in an electric air taxi for the same cost as an Uber by 2025, at least according to Joby Aviation electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles promise efficient battery powered transport akin to urban Ubers or Lyfts in the sky. Yahoo finance spoke with industry investors, officials and analysts and traveled to Joby's manufacturing facility in Marina, California to get a closer look at what to expect from this emerging secto. >> Marina Traffic Experimental 542 Bravo. So we're at the downtown Manhattan Heliport, and what we're going to do is we're going to take off. All I want you to do is pull back with your right hand. That will make you go up. Just pull back hard. Yep. And there you go. Now you're flying. >> I'm flying. We're not actually flying above the Statue of Liberty. That's a simulator from Joby Aviation, which is used to train traditional pilots on how to fly this battery powered aircraft with the backing of Toyota and Delta, it's one of the largest companies looking to bring battery powered air taxis to market. These aircraft are called Evtols, which stands for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing. At first glance, it may look like a helicopter with extra propellers on top, but unlike choppers, Evtols run off electricity rather than fuel. >> This is for charging. >> It took us about six minutes to get from JFK to downtown Manhattan. >> Over $22 billion in investments over the last 20 years, from names like Uber, Stellantis and Honeywell, have now made this kind of a commute closer than ever thanks to advancements in Evtol technology, high performance propeller blades that are very light. In addition to Delta major aerospace names like United and Boeing see the potential and have invested with the hopes of one day adding evtol rides to their list of offerings. Getting in now makes sense. One research firm estimates the air taxi market could be worth more than $65 billion by 2028, while the tech has proven to work, and it could be even closer to commercial launch in Europe. Here in the U.S, regulation, lack of infrastructure and customer affordability could be what keeps these companies from taking off. Yahoo finance went inside Joby's 130,000 square foot assembly facility to learn more about how the company hopes their aircraft and their business strategy will win the air taxi race. This is what's next in the business of electric air taxis. Flying above traffic in a congested city sounds like fiction from The Jetsons, but air taxi companies believe they can make this a reality as soon as 2025. >> This is as close as we've seen, I think, in terms of the technology coming together to make something that you could use on a daily basis to go where you want to go and do the things that you want to do, which is kind of what a car is all about. I think that is something that's gonna be practical and available to people in the pretty near term. >> The Joby aircraft has completed more than a thousand test flights. The aircraft can fly five people, including the pilot, up to 150 miles. >> What can you do with the way you design and build an aircraft? If you have a world class electric propulsion system available, which no other aircraft have really been designed around? In some ways, the six motors on the aircraft are powered by four batteries, which were developed by a team of Ex-tesla employees. When that lets you do is fly very, very efficiently, which makes all electric work and makes all electric safer too. >> Redundancy was built into the aircraft. Everything has backups in place. So this is a battery. This is a battery. Does that exist on the other side too. >> So the aircraft has got four batteries. You've got that redundancy you can afford to I mean we can lose a battery and we still fly perfectly fine electric aircraft faced similar challenges to electric vehicles, which don't have the added hurdle of launching into the sky. >> Among those challenges, battery charging times Joby can go up to 100 miles on a single charge, meaning it could do two trips back and forth to JFK from NYC's downtown heliport before needing a recharge. Joby says almost all of their trips and target markets would allow for recharging. That takes about as long as deboarding and boarding passengers, according to one report. Evtol batteries would ideally charge in under ten minutes, about as fast as Tesla's latest superchargers. Evtol companies hope safety measures will give them a leg up as they try and bite into the 10,000 traditional rotorcraft trips per day happening in the U.S. But first up, getting cleared to fly a representative from the Federal Aviation Administration told Yahoo Finance that while Evtols could launch commercially as early as 2025, 2028 could be more realistic, at least for scaled and competitive market. The FAA's innovate 28 initiative outlines requirements for launch that includes hitting certain safety criteria and flying under a variety of conditions. It's the same approach applied to traditional aviation. Still certification is not guaranteed. >> We don't know when certification for FAA will happen for any aircraft. The FAA changed them to special condition aircraft, essentially putting more rigorous certification processes on top of that. So I can imagine that we're going to see an Evtol in the air certified flying around folks in 12 months time. >> Does pre 2030 seem realistic? >> I do think late in this decade we'll have that. >> Until then, Evtols are focusing on countries with looser regulations. Joby plans to launch flights in Dubai by 2025, through a deal that was supposed to be exclusive, though Archer Joby's main competitor, later announced their own plans in the region back in the States, Joby is on track to hit the FAA's proposed timeline for approval. They've just completed stage three of a five stage trial, but with testing comes setbacks. The US National Transportation Safety Board released a report on a Joby crash from February of 2022. I know that there was a test flight that did end in a totaled Joby aircraft. Can you talk to me a little bit about what happened there and how you, as a leader, kind of transitioned the tech moving past that, we were flying pretty high and really fast, >> right at the edge. We were doing it remotely though, so that's actually one of the really interesting early use cases of autonomy that I think is a little underappreciated. We've taken care of it in all of the future designs, but we found it earlier because of the use of that remote piloting and autonomy in a way that I think ultimately is pretty beneficial. >> I think autonomous has its own issues, right? The fact that people will feel comfortable not only getting in an aircraft that they've never been on before, and having it have no pilot seems like the riskiest proposition. >> Still, autonomous flight could boost profits. Pilot salaries aren't public, but the average annual wage for commercial pilots in 2022 was a little over $100,000. That's according to the bureau of Labor Statistics. >> We think that's definitely going to come. We just don't think it's the right way to go to market to start with, because this gets us to market as fast as possible. And then that's something that will make it even better down the road. >> For now, Joby is partnering with companies like Toyota and even Uber, which sold off their own air taxi unit to Joby back in 2019. >> I led the Uber Elevate team, which was Uber's effort to build a flying car in some sense, ecosystem of different companies. We actually demoed this with helicopters in New York City in 2019 when we launched. Maybe you remember there was something called Uber Copter. You'll be able to in our app or in the Uber app, essentially choose Joby, a Joby flight, as one of the types of products. But it won't just be a flight alone. It's actually a multi-modal integration that integration will be needed since Joby won't have many locations available for flights at the start. >> Here's how it would work. In one of their first target markets, New York City users would open the Uber app and select the air taxi option. Then a car would come to the customer's door, drive them to the nearest Vertiport, which is a converted heliport that can handle the charging and storing of evtols. From there, users would hop in the evtol and land at a nearby airport, Joby says. In New York City, the flight would take about seven minutes. Uber isn't the only major company getting in on the action. Toyota invested nearly $400 million into Joby, and Delta invested 60 million. Archer, Joby's biggest competitor, has a $1 billion conditional order from United Airlines and raked in 150 million from Stellantis, as well as some well-known investors, including Cathie Wood, via her Ark innovation ETF and serial entrepreneur Mark Lowry. Major air taxi firms Joby Archer and Lilium have all had gains on the S&P 500 this year. To see this investment put to work, Yahoo Finance went inside Joby's assembly facility, which following the Toyota investment, now runs a lot like a car assembly line. >> So this overall is our final assembly facility. So we are bringing in all sorts of parts, all of the many different parts that go into the aircraft. Many of them get built here and then we have a process where we put them sequentially in the right order, in some sense onto the aircraft to build out that full aircraft. We are vertically integrated. We build the parts, and then we assemble the parts together into structures. And so what we have behind us is one of our structural assemblies for a fuselage, which is the body, the main body of the aircraft. >> That vertical integration is part of what attracted Delta to Joby. >> We spent at least 18 months looking at over 20 different evtol. Startups, really looking at what each one had to offer because of the technological strength that Joby had, the financial strength that they had as a startup. We felt that that made a great match for us to be able to collaborate. >> It's not just airlines chasing the future of aviation. Honeywell, broadly known for things like thermostats, has an aerospace unit that's now making parts for Evtols. >> What they've done is basically taken their partnerships onto Evtols by becoming a supplier. And that sounds like big investment dollars from Honeywell, but not so much because they're not touching their 27% operating margins, but instead, what the company has done is tell partners that if they would like Honeywell to partner with them, they could invest in Honeywell's product innovation. We don't know, like the background of those agreements for major airline carriers like Delta, Future investments into Joby are based on them achieving regulatory and financial milestones. >> We have specific performance criteria for us. It really is, the performance metrics is just getting them to market and making sure that we're comfortable and integrating a seamless experience for our customers. >> There's more than one path to get this to market rather than partnering with airlines, some Evtol companies like Lilium are looking to sell to them directly. The German based business, which offers a larger seven person evtol, plans to focus its efforts on manufacturing and maintaining its aircrafts instead of owning the end to end experience like Joby. Regardless of the business model or investors, some common obstacles exist for all Evtol companies, including infrastructure and adoption. Of the over 6000 heliports in the country, New York City is poised to be the first to transition one into a vertiport for Evtols. The effort is not cheap, though. One firm's model suggests costs could range anywhere from 3.5 million to 12 million for leading global city. Of course, that depends on a variety of factors like size and location. >> What we are looking to do on this side with a number of EV tolls is how do we embrace new technology, pivot to all electric, significantly reduce noise pollution so the end goal is a full pivot. The end goal is a full pivot. >> Infrastructure operators are putting in bids to transition this heliport into an electrified vertiport, one of two operated by the city. The plan is to convert both within a year of FAA certification, according to the mayor's office. >> We want a very significant federal award, so some money will come from them. Some money will come from the bidders who will have a long term contract to manage the site, and some will come from the EDC once they get FAA approval and find a way to build up Vertiports. >> The next obstacle for the industry scaling enough to keep costs down for riders. >> So our goal is to actually launch this service at something like Uber Black pricing on a per seat basis, though not on a per vehicle basis. We think that as we are able to build up those muscles, the way the technology is able to efficiently batch people into the aircraft and, and make the whole operation work more and more efficiently, we'll be able to drive down toward Uber like pricing on a per seat basis. And we think that really starts to get into that realm of like everyday flight. >> According to Uber, the average price of a trip from Manhattan to JFK is $135 for an Uber black and $87 for a regular Uber. However, Jeffries estimates that at launch that Joby Ride could cost around $200. Do you have an idea of how many flights per day per week? >> Yeah, we haven't we haven't really announced any of the details on that one. >> Consulting firm estimas the cost per passenger kilometer will decrease by more than two thirds between 2025 and 2040, but that's partially due to an expectation of autonomous flights in the future, which isn't without its own set of challenges. So monitoring the FAA certification is the number one. What are the number two? And number three headwinds that investors should be thinking about for Evtol? >> Second would be infrastructure. I think we don't have an infrastructure in place right now. Really, where could you take this aircraft from? Could you take it from on top of your building? Will your building have the infrastructure for it? If you have to commute 30 minutes to the terminal that has it, does that defeat the purpose of just taking the Uber? Third, I think, is just customer apprehension to try an Evtol, you know, we just seek more customer awareness. >> Joby detailed these headwinds and many more in an SEC regulatory filing from February. The company notes they have enough cash on hand to support the initial launch of commercial operations in 2025. But after that, if they're not generating sufficient cash flow, they'll use a combination of equity and debt financing to fund the business. Despite the financial obstacles and competition. If the Evtol industry gains adoption, it has the potential to transform the way we travel, and that goes beyond just how we get to and from the airport. >> It's easy to be negative on an industry that hasn't really taken off yet, right? So we want to be supportive of innovation. We want to be supportive of technology, but we also want to be cognizant of the current regulatory environment. >> There'll be other things that we can do with these technologies that we're certifying. We're really building toward the future in a lot of ways as well. We're building all of these capabilities, all of these muscles as a company, not just to build one revolutionary airplane, but to build the future of zero emission aviation. >> Time now. For what? To watch before we look at what's on deck next week. President Joe Biden is doing an interview with George Stephanopoulos later tonight at 8 p.m. eastern. This will be the first interview since Biden's debate with former president Donald Trump. And now looking ahead to next week on Thursday, we'll be getting the latest consumer price index or CPI print for June. And on Friday we're also getting fresh data on the producer price index for June. New CPI and PPI prints will be key inflation readings as the fed continues to decide on potential rate cuts this year and moving over to earnings on Thursday. Names such as Pepsi, Progressive, Delta and ConAgra to report their earnings and on Friday, big banks to kick off another earnings season. JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi to report their quarterly results, providing investors more color on the state of the financial sector. That is a wrap on today's asking for a trend. Be sure to come back Monday at 4:30 p.m. eastern for all the latest market moving stories affecting your wallet. Have a great weekend!
