The South China Sea: Arena, to what is one of the
most complex and dangerous territorial disputes in the world. This incredibly valuable body of
water is defined by hundreds of tiny islands, the ownership of which is highly contested between
several nations. Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines all have overlapping claims here.
But the largest claim by far is made by China. The infamous "Nine-dash Line" - also called the cow's
tongue - claims about 90 percent of the South China Sea for the People's Republic of China. And the
complexity of this dispute does not end there. Due to the South China Sea's wealth and
natural resources and its immense importance as an international waterway, the conflict
is also involving external powers like Japan, India and most notably the United States, which
directly challenges China's claims by conducting regular naval expeditions in these contested
waters. This has been the most requested topic for me to cover by far and i'll try to give you
a rough overview of what this dispute is about. To do this, we will have to answer a number of
questions: Why is the south china sea so important? Who is involved and why? And what does it mean
for the stability of the region and the world? A valuable territory is usually characterized
by two things: The presence of natural resources and a strategically important location. And the
South China Sea features both of those things. Here, a non-trivial amount of oil and gas has
been shown to exist. How much is up to debate. Oil reserves are estimated to be between 10 to 130
billion barrels and natural gas between 190 to 900 trillion cubic feet. While this means that
the region is probably not as rich in oil and gas as the Middle-East, those resources are still
located in an increasingly energy-hungry region with fast-growing economies. And as time moves
on, new technologies could make the extraction of these often difficult to reach resources much
easier. Fishing is also a significant economic factor to be considered. The South China Sea is
among the most heavily fished waters in the world. Seafood is an important part of people's
diets in the region and access to these waters is vital for the fishing industries of
the countries around it. This wealth and natural resources is complemented by the South China
Sea's valuable geographic position. It is among the busiest waterways in the world, connecting the
large markets of Eastern and South-eastern Asia with the rest of Eurasia and Africa through the
Taiwanese Strait in the North and the Strait of Malacca in the South. Therefore, free access through
the South China Sea is immensely important, not only to the countries around it, but also to
countries like Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and India. But the key to controlling the South China
Sea is only revealed if we zoom in more closely. Then we'll find this: Hundreds of little islands,
reefs and rocks scattered all across the South China Sea in several major groupings. Although
these little bits of land are often barely above sea level, they are essential for doing two things:
One thing is to bolster the legal claims of a country, since in theory owning them is essential
for expanding a country's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in accordance with the international treaty on the
law of the sea, short UNCLOS. This EEZ can extend up to 200 nautical miles around a country's
territory - provided it doesn't collide with another country's EEZ before that. Within that zone,
only the territory's owner has the exclusive right to exploit natural resources - which means that the
islands here could secure exclusive access to the sweet, sweet resources mentioned before. And the
other use for them is to build up military assets - increasing a nation's ability to actually
enforce the territorial claims and restrict access to the waters if the need should arise;
for instance, in the case of war. Which brings us to the next question: Who is involved in
trying to control this region and why? Six governments are directly claiming islands in
the South China Sea: Among them, is Vietnam, which claims a significant portion of the sea, arguing
that the many islands and reefs were used by Vietnamese fishermen for centuries and were also
formally incorporated into Vietnam during the French colonial period. Vietnam officially handed
in the current claim to the United Nations in 2009 and was joined by Malaysia, who also handed
in theirs simultaneously. Malaysia's claim in the South China Sea is based on UNCLOS and the
continental shelf principle - which is basically a way for nations to extend the Exclusive Economic
Zone (EEZ). Simply put, this is done by adding up to 350 nautical miles of the continental shelf - meaning
the submerged part of the land - to the EEZ. Malaysia's claim also includes a number of the
Spratly Islands, where Vietnam and Malaysia overlap. Malaysia's argument here is that the islands
were part of the Japanese Empire until 1945, after which it renounced its claims to the
Spratlys and allowed Malaysia to annex some of them. Brunei's claim to the South China Sea is very
similar: Claiming a long rectangle up the Southern edge of the Spratly islands. But for decades
the biggest problem for the small Sultanate has been defining its borders with Malaysia,
although some progress has been made so far. The Philippines also lay claim on several Islands
they consider part of the Philippine archipelago. Which makes the claim overlap with all claims
mentioned before. And then we have the elephant in the room; or rather the elephant and small
twin brother: the two Chinas. Firstly, there is the People's Republic of China, which claims the
vast majority of the South China Sea for itself in accordance with the "Nine-dash Line". The line
originated in a slightly different version in the 1930s, when the government of the then Republic
of China began drafting its territorial claims to the South China Sea based on historic documents,
as they argued that past Chinese dynasties considered much of East and South-east Asia to be
part of their dominion. But soon after the line was created, China would be plunged into a disastrous
war with Japan while fighting a civil war at the same time - which eventually the communist forces
won. The new communist People's Republic of China would go on to adopt the line as well, while
the nationalist forces which lost the civil war retreated to Taiwan and brought with them the
same territorial claims of the Republic of China, including the "Nine-dash Line" - which is why
Taiwan claims the exact same territory. While claiming islands as your own territory is one
thing, actually controlling them is another. If we take a closer look at, for example, who
controls the Spratly islands, we can see that the situation here is a confusing mess with
various nations controlling bits here and there. Some of these Islands feature entire military
bases, which makes one thing very clear: Controlling these Islands is incredibly important
to these nations. However, the number of Islands is very limited - sort of like NFTs if NFTs were
actually useful - which is why in 2013, China developed the South China Sea equivalent to
right-clicking and saving an NFT by creating artificial Islands capable of sustaining large
military bases and even deep water ports. This move of course heightened tension in the region
and brought international media attention to it. And if this wasn't confusing enough already,
there are plenty of other actors involved in this dispute that don't have a direct claim,
but are nonetheless involved due to their proximity or national interests in the region.
Indonesia has reiterated time and time again that it doesn't have a claim in the South China
Sea, but has repeatedly come into conflict with China around its Natuna Islands, since China's
Nine-dash Line overlaps in part with what Indonesia considers to be its territorial waters.
The tiny but incredibly wealthy city-state of Singapore also doesn't have a claim, but
is one of the most important economic and financial hubs of Asia and the world, it relies
heavily on free access to the South China Sea. And while Singapore has mostly friendly
relations with its neighbours as well as China, it is in its best interest that no single
power has control over the South China Sea. Worth mentioning is also the role of ASEAN - the
Association of South East Asian Nations - which is basically a very stripped down version of the
European Union. Together, all members of ASEAN form a formidable economic bloc with a combined
GDP of about 3 trillion US-dollars - comparable to the economies of India and the United Kingdom.
And while ASEAN has been successful in bringing China to the negotiation table, it faces deep
internal divisions since some member states like Laos and Myanmar are very supportive of China
in contrast to members like Vietnam and Malaysia. Lastly, we have the external actors - three of which
we are going to take a short look at: India, Japan and the United States. India has been increasingly
active in the South China Sea for years now. For this purpose, it introduced the so-called "Act
East Policy", with which it seeks to develop stronger security cooperation with several countries in
the region as well as major external actors like Japan and the United States. India is especially
interested in protecting the Strait of Malacca. The reasons for that are twofold: Firstly,
the South China Sea is incredibly important to India's trading activities in the entire Asia
Pacific - and the Strait of Malacca specifically is the strategically most vital region,
as it channels maritime traffic between the Indian and Pacific oceans. And secondly,
India seeks to challenge China's quest for hegemony in the South China Sea as China and
India have been at odds with each other at the Chinese-Indian border since the 1950s - something
I already made a video about. Japan has also been increasingly active in the South China Sea, closely
cooperating with its main ally, the United States. The reasons for Japan's involvement are fairly
similar to India's: On the one hand, its economy is quite dependent on access to the South China Sea,
where for instance about 70% of its energy imports from the Middle-East pass through. And
Japanese Energy firms are heavily involved in oil and gas explorations in the region in cooperation
with Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. On the other hand, Japan is also caught in a
regional rivalry with China for a variety of reasons, including the territorial disputes over
the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea and the status of Taiwan, just to name a few.
Then we come to the largest external player: The United States, which has increased its presence
in the South China Sea significantly since the 2010s. This involvement is characterised by two
things: Firstly, by building up a quasi-anti-Chinese alliance with various countries in the
region in order to contain Chinese ambitions. And secondly, regular so-called "Freedom of
Navigation Operations", during which American and allied navy ships will traverse parts of the South
China Sea which China claims as territorial waters, but the US sees as international waters. The
reasons behind this activity are somewhat different from the external actors we discussed
before: While the US certainly has some economic interest in the South China Sea, it is much less
of a factor in this case. For the US, being involved in the South China Sea is about nothing less
than maintaining the global world order it has built over the last decades. Which brings us
to the third and last question of this video. The South China Sea dispute is immensely
complicated. Every single actor involved is driven by a unique set of motivations and
facing a wide variety of complex challenges. In the future, I plan to dedicate a video to the
role of each and every actor in this conflict. But for the time being, those are well beyond
the scope of this video. But what we can do is have a look at the most defining characteristic
of this conflict: The Chinese-American rivalry. Over the last decades, China's conduct in the
South China Sea has become much more assertive. It relocated a significant part of its navy,
including its submarines, to a large naval base on Hainan Island to be closer to the disputed area.
It has continuously built up military assets on many Islands and reefs and increased its overall
naval presence - giving it the ability to police much of these waters, as demonstrated by its
regular interference with foreign fishermen and oil and gas exploration activities conducted
by other countries like Vietnam and Malaysia. And while China continues to rise to the status of
global power by growing its economic and military might, it is highly likely that the country
will spend even more resources on achieving dominance in the South China Sea and overcome the
opposition of the United States and its partners. China's motivations in doing so might be better
understood when examining how historically, another nation behaved during its rise while faced
with a similar situation: The United States. In the 19th century, the United States was the
rising power on the world stage, while at the same time, most of the European colonial powers -
which for centuries had dominated the political landscape of the Americas - were gone from the
vast majority of the continent. However, among the last European footholds in the Americas was a
region of particular interest to the United States, due to its proximity and strategically important
location: The Caribbean. For the influential political scientist John Mearsheimer, the situation
in which the US found itself in the Caribbean was very similar to the one China finds itself in the
South China Sea today: In both cases, a rising power seeks to dominate an adjacent and strategically
important sea region, defined by numerous Islands, and still under the influence of more distant
powers. In the case of the US it was successful: in 1898, the Spanish-American war broke out, after
which Spain was completely driven from the region, while the remaining European powers, most notably
the United Kingdom, would accept American dominance over the Caribbean, while eventually moving
towards a closer relationship with the US. China would like to achieve something similar in
the South China Sea, but is still far from doing so, as the situation here differs in a number of
regards. Firstly, the Caribbean only harboured rather small and easily influenced nations, while in the
South China Sea, China seeks to dominate countries like Vietnam and Malaysia, which are much more
powerful than the small states of the Caribbean, and able to punch well above the weight. And
secondly, the European powers which were present in the Caribbean were already in decline and
increasingly occupied with problems on their home continent, which made it easier for the rising
United States to establish dominance in the region. Meanwhile China is facing a still powerful
United States, which lays heavy emphasis on its national interests in the South China Sea - building
a growing quasi-alliance network in the region. America's presence in the South China Sea has
been an important feature of US foreign policy since at least the Clinton administration and
was significantly increased during the Obama and Trump administrations. That growing presence
is not only the case with the South China Sea, but the entire Asia-pacific region in fact -
and that's not without good reason. For the US, China is developing into its main geopolitical
rival. A role, which was vacant for decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union. China has
indeed great ambitions for itself: Until 2049, exactly 100 years after the establishment
of the communist People's Republic, Beijing aims to become the world's
leading power across all major benchmarks. And the country seems to be currently on the right
track: China is projected to become the largest economy in the world in the near future, while the
ever-growing "Belt and Road Initiative", through which China finances infrastructure mega-projects
across the world, is a clear sign of China's goal to become a truly global power - which are
worrying developments for the United States. Therefore, it is in the United States national
interest to cooperate with its regional partners to contain China, so it cannot solely
focus on growing its global influence. This adds immense potential for escalation to an
already dangerous conflict. And that makes the South China Sea without a doubt a powder keg
and an ever increasing risk to regional and global peace. And incidents, which could trigger an
escalation, are unfortunately not rare. Just a month before the release of this video, a US fighter
plane crashed and sank into the South China Sea after a landing mishap. Some speculated, that this
could cause a confrontation between the US and China, as both race to recover the wreck. One thing
in this dispute seems clear: If a somewhat stable regime for conduct in the South China Sea cannot
be negotiated between all involved actors, it seems to me that it is only a question of time when this
region will become the center of a global crisis. Hello everyone i'm sorry for the long wait,
but this video took me quite a while to make. So, if you enjoyed it and also enjoy the other
content I make, consider supporting my channel on Patreon. You can find the link in the description,
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Thanks for watching, I'll see you next one, bye!
