Geopolitics of the South China Sea

at least three point four trillion dollars worth of trade passes through the South China Sea annually accounting for a third of the global maritime trade in various parts of the sea there is promise of crude oil and natural gas beneath the seabed while other areas hold rich fishing grounds but the sea is also loaded with distinct hazards and choke points such as Straits reefs smugglers secessionists and so on on top of everything are the political boundaries of the nearby coastal states no fewer than seven countries have maritime claims in the South China Sea each overlapping the other but one state in particular makes the most daring claim the People's Republic of China not only disputes the waters of each of its neighbors but in doing so it seeks to cast its hegemony over the nations bordering the South China Sea I'm your host Shivan and welcome to Caspian report special thanks to Central Barbara chocolate for sponsoring this episode as a chocolate connoisseur they bring high-end brands to the online market at wholesale prices it's easy and affordable some of their best sellers include the smooth 100% pure cocoa chocolate with no added sugar or the cocoa flavanols preserved dark chocolate and many others visit their site and treat yourself use the promo code Caspian report to get 15% off any item in any category you'll find the links in the description and the comments section unlike other places on earth the sea is the primary system for communication and transportation in Southeast Asia more often than not the regional hinterlands are beyond the control of the authorities the sea therefore offers the most efficient way to get around and get things done so securing trade docking patrol and military rights through the waterways can mean all the difference in achieving prosperity and stability Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea are based on an ambiguous map from the 1940's known as the nine - line the u-shaped demarcation line covers about 90 percent of the South China Sea and extends as far as 2000 kilometers from the Chinese mainland not surprisingly the nearby coastal nations disagree with that claim the dispute was mostly academic until 2013 when China launched a large-scale reclamation program at seven locations in the sparkly Islands sitting at the heart of the South China Sea this is the most hotly contested area as it is also claimed by the Philippines Vietnam Malaysia and even Taiwan the latter's claims mirror that of China policymakers in Beijing claimed the sparsely islands for its rich fishing grounds and substantial quantities of hydrocarbon reserves there is enough crude oil and natural gas to keep Chinese industries going for decades to come as such China went to work and by 2016 it had already reclaimed about 3,200 acres of land atop seven reefs in the sparkly Islands that were partially submerged this led to political hysteria in the region and it was followed by some tough negotiations between Beijing and Washington resulting in the termination of the reclamation program still it didn't stop China from placing military facilities only already reclaimed territories over the years the Chinese military installed extensive naval air and missile systems on the seven islands the exact details are still sketchy but it is presumed that the islands of fiery cross mischief and sube now host sophisticated air defense systems as well as barracks helipads runways and hangars capable of hosting dozens of warplanes in addition the island of fiery cross has a deep water port where large vessels can dock and similar harbors are still under construction at sube and mischief as for the smaller islands each holds radar facilities bunkers and supply platforms taken together these islands act as aircraft carriers projecting power across the periphery to further cement its claim to the area China's Coast Guard and maritime militia use non naval vessels such as container ships and fishing vessels to harass foreign ships under the cloak of plausible deniability it's a doctrine that makes the neighborhood think twice about entering Chinese claimed waters but the policy stops short of escalating into an armed conflict that said China's expanding presence affects peripheral powers as well including India Japan and Australia which are all keen to secure their access to and from the South China Sea Japan in particular has authentic concerns in the region as an island nation with little natural resources Tokyo's lifeline passes through the South China Sea thus it is inevitable that Japan will emerge from its geopolitical sleep and reassert itself once more in Southeast Asia for Beijing and this is a serious complication because unlikely globally committed Washington the Japanese will focus exclusively on their Chinese rivals about 320 kilometers southeast of Hainan Island as a chain of reefs known as the Paracel Islands it is disputed by China Taiwan and Vietnam here Beijing's interests are more obvious since the Paracel Islands form a defensive layer for Hainan Island which hosts the Chinese nuclear submarine fleet more importantly whoever controls the Paracel Islands and Hainan Island at the same time will gain the ability to Vietnam by targeting the narrow enemy's range that effectively splits the country into four centuries Vietnam obstructed China's quest for regional hegemony if Beijing can subjugate Hanoi through control of the Paracel Islands then China has won the fight and that seems to be exactly what China is pursuing of the Paracel Islands have a Chinese presence with the largest military base being on woody island where about 1,400 military personnel operate radar facilities as AM batteries and an airfield moreover woody island serves as china's administrative capital of all the claimed island chains in the South China Sea acting as an HQ in a geopolitical hot spot since 2016 China has sought to normalize its presence on woody island by operating daily civilian flights to the island promoting tourist activities and even holding weddings by adding a civilian element to the island Beijing hopes to showcase the territory as an authentic island with an economic life of its own the goal is to get an exclusive economic zone around woody island but more on this later finally there is the Scarborough Shoal a triangle-shaped chain of submerged rocks and reefs due to its proximity it was administered by the Philippines until China's forceful takeover in 2012 since that standoff the Scarborough Shoal has been a point of contention between Beijing and Manila initially Filipino policymakers expected their American counterparts to defend the territory as was required by the defense treaty between the Philippines and the United States however the Obama administration quietly declined to confront China over its occupation of the Scarborough Shoal and chose to protest verbally instead imagine if the Russian military violated and occupied some strategic real-estate in the Baltics and NATO reacted with only a verbal protest that's the sort of thing that happened with the Philippines understandably since the turn of events relations between Manila and Washington deteriorated considerably and the Filipino leadership turned to China to forge a new understanding China gained all the rights for resource extraction fishing and signed dozens of agreements promising infrastructure investments in the Philippines but up to this day Beijing maintains no military installation on the Scarborough Shoal the thing is the chain of reefs is located about 350 kilometres from the Filipino capital a Chinese military installation on the Scarborough Shoal book threatened Manila and provoked a desperately harsh response by the Philippines probably even pushing the Philippines back into the arms of America for China its presence on the Scarborough Shoal is all about securing access to the Pacific you see a series of small islands surrounds the eastern edge of the South China Sea running from Japan to Indonesia if is dubbed as the first island chain and to travel across it Chinese ships must sail through choke points that are vulnerable to interception by land air or sea for Chinese military officials control over the first island chain is a necessity if the country is to have any pre-emptive options in times of conflict the controversial nine-dash line is loosely based on the first island chain and thereby illustrates its historical strategic significance the Philippines is the only state along the island chains that is weak enough to be subjugated or coerced into a political agreement as such China uses its presence on the Scarborough Shoal to subtly steer the behavior of the Philippines and secure access to the Pacific but in all likelihood the chain of reefs will remain a demilitarized zone for the foreseeable future of course it couldn't be that easy despite the informal understanding the Filipino government brought the Chinese state to the permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague in 2016 which provides services to resolve disputes in international treaties between countries during the tribunal proceedings the court referred to the UN Convention on the law of the sea for the definition of an island according to Article 121 of the convention Island is a naturally formed area of land surrounded by water which is above water at high tide morover and island must sustain human habitation or economic life the Chinese lawyers pointed to woody island and the 1,400 military personnel that inhabited as proof of human habitation and economic activity however the court ruled that the economic and human activities were sustained through continued delivery of supplies from outside as such the seven Chinese assets in the sparkley Islands failed to meet the legal requirements of an island instead the territories were deemed either as rocks or low tide elevations this has profound legal implications because of rocks and low tide elevations grant a different set of rights than Islands the most important legal difference is that only an island comes with an exclusive economic zone that extends out for 370 kilometers beyond the territorial and contiguous zone into the sea within that area the state has full control over the economic resources such as fishing mining and oil exploration while the freedom of navigation remains in effect China divides the hate conclusion and asserts that its holdings in the South China Sea are Islands giving them full 22 kilometres territorial sea and a 370 kilometre exclusive economic zone and this is where the United States comes in for the US Navy the freedom of navigation legally known as innocent passage is tied to America's ability to project power abroad nearly 40% of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea including most of its energy imports at the flick of a switch the u.s. Navy can impose its terms on Chinese vessels sailing through the area over time such an imposition would China's economy and trigger social unrest across the country evidently such an act would also hurt the global economy so it's a deterrence policy that hurts both the attacker and the defender however the policy can only work as long as the freedom of navigation remains in effect in the South China Sea without the freedom of navigation American lawmakers would have to rewrite the geopolitical balance with China seen in this context the US Navy upholds its interests by conducting freedom of navigation operations these are naval maneuvers that set legal precedents and reinforce or challenge maritime claims the law of the sea defines innocent passage as the transit of a warship from one country through the territorial waters of another with the condition that the transit vessel refrains from military research surveillance and survey activities the transit vessel is also obliged to move continuously and expeditiously through the territorial waters so what the US Navy has been doing for the last couple of years in the South China Sea is by sailing its vessels in a zig-zag pattern through the waters of the sparkly Islands by sailing in a zigzag formation rather than continuously and expeditiously as is required in an innocent passage the Americans make it known that they do not recognize the waters around the sparkly Islands to be an exclusive economic zone belonging to Beijing meanwhile the Chinese Navy reacts by tailing the American vessels demanding that they leave China's exclusive economic zone as to set a precedent of their own this cat-and-mouse game has been going on for years but it also reveals the irony of great powers the United States is not a signatory to the law of the sea but it seeks to enforce the international regulations to everyone else simultaneously China does recognize the treaty but blatantly violates the rules it just goes to show in geopolitics the strong yet to bend and break the rules some policymakers argue that there is a good reason for breaking the norms because there is a lot riding on the outcome as the global naval power America has the ability if not the intent to constrain China's it makes sense that Beijing feels exposed and vulnerable which is why it's expanding its military footprint and the South China Sea meanwhile the United States seeks to restore the status quo as it grows increasingly insecure over China's rising power however time is on China's side as military technology advances and missile capabilities improve it will become increasingly harder to dislodge the Chinese from the area in turn this will allow Beijing to take up new positions to bypass the leverage of the US Navy going by this forecast some American officials argued that it is in Washington's favour to act sooner rather than later that means applying physical force ultimately this deadly pattern is the tale of a rising power challenging to eclipse the ruling one China embodies a rising Athens while America exemplifies a Sparta that seeks to hold it together a dance known as to say Dee Dee's trap the only way to escape this pitfall is for both sides to take a step back and redefine their relationship now if you want to delve even deeper into the power politics between Washington and Beijing check out destined for war by grayham Ellison the affiliate link will be in the description the book covers 500 years of history where a great power sought to overturn one another all invaluable lessons to understand the geopolitics of the South China Sea I've been your host Shivan from Caspian report credit goes to our patreon community for making original content like this possible if you want to learn more see the links below thank you for watching and so [Music] [Laughter]

Channel: CaspianReport

Views: 1,625,807

Keywords: China, South China Sea, United States, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Japan, Nine-Dash Line, Philippines, Military, Spratly Islands, Hainan Island, Paracel Islands, First island chain, Strategy, US Navy, Scarborough Shoal, Pacific, Trade, Natural gas, Fishing, Maritime, Defense, Fiery Cross, Mischief, Subi, Woody Island, Ships, Law, UNCLOS, EEZ, Thucydides’ Trap, Geopolitics, News, Media, FONOP

Id: GcFiJwpvmq0

Length: 17min 15sec (1035 seconds)

Published: Wed Dec 25 2019