Shake up in Riyadh: Regional and International Implication

good morning ladies and gentlemen my name is Kelly gia Shan I'm executive director of Arab Center Washington DC and I would like to welcome all of you to this special briefing focusing on the shake-up in Riyadh regional and international implications over the past twelve thirteen days since I guess the fourth or the fifth of November some serious and very significant changes and steps have been taken in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that attracted the attention of media and political analysts all over the world as a matter of fact and as all of you know there has been hundreds and hundreds if not thousands of articles and interviews conducted written about the significance of these events in terms of immediate mid term long term implications domestic interpret implications regional implications international implications for the Kingdom and for those of course like the United States countries that have extensive interest and special relationship with the Kingdom although it's been a couple of weeks of hyper activity at that level analysis and reporting frankly more questions have been raised than answered during this period I don't need to read you the titles of some of the of all these questions because that will keep us here till next Friday but I will raise a couple of these questions just for the purpose and for the sake of the discussion today to kind of turn the frame if you will the conversation today some of the questions raised starting early November when these steps were adopted or taken included the following what is the real meaning of the Saudi Rhonda that we witnessed on the 4th and the 5th of November is it really an anti-corruption campaign or a consolidation of power campaign is Mohammed bin Salman behaving recklessly as claimed by an unnamed new as diplomat or is he leading a genuine revolution from above in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia what are the domestic implications of this crack crackdown that we have witnessed over the past 12 13 days what is the impact specifically domestically on the governance process in general in Saudi Arabia on the role of the royal family in power sharing in the kingdom and particularly the role of the religious establishment are they marginalized with the arrest that we have witnessed even prior to the arrest of the princes and and the businessmen there was also a large number of religious establishment orlimar and others that have have also been detained is when we look back at this period is power trumping legitimacy in Saudi Arabia how is legitimacy going to be affected by these steps is this the beginning as one of my colleagues at the office said is this the beginning of the fourth Saudi estate is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia transforming its ultra-conservative Salafi thought to moderate salafism did the purge of Saudi billionaires and millionaires help or harm vision 2030 is this the Saudi Arabia that Saudi youth won in other words what's the domestic reaction now and in the future to this campaign and definitely we need to kind of touch on the what are the regional and international implications of this Saudi purge to help us answer these questions and we invited two dear friends who are well-informed about these developments and those of you who have been following up the reaction whether on Twitter or otherwise have seen they are very significant their substantive and they're wise comments that help kind of direct the conversation actually worldwide not just in Saudi Arabia or outside here in the state let me introduce both of them at this time and the order they will speak and then we'll give them the floor to proceed the first speaker would be Jamel Ashok ji Jamal is Saudi Arabian journalist columnist author editor he doesn't need an introduction to those of you who are in the media and have been following the Middle East or the Arabic language media he served as correspondent for several both Arabic and English language publications including the Saudi Gazette a shark allow saath al mahalla Al Hayat was the editor-in-chief of al Wooten was the deputy editor-in-chief of Arab News and on and on and on with regards so it's been a key figure in the media in the Middle East not just in Saudi Arabia he was actually earlier in his career and our friendship goes back to more than 25 years actually he served as correspondent foreign correspondent in different countries in the region including Algeria Afghanistan Lebanon Kuwait and and the Sudan and reported on all these developments during that period in the region and became thus an expert particularly with the rise of Islamism in the region he became a well-known expert on this issue he worked here in the in Washington for a while was a consultant media consultant to the embassy of Saudi Arabia particularly with the when Prince Turki al-faisal was the ambassador during that period but he has always been also a commentator on the media as I said in all these languages and many networks aside the Saudi ones that he directed or worked at and that includes channels like BBC al-jazeera MBC divide TV and many others our next speaker also good friend Christian Coates Eriksson he is the Middle East fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University and we're also delighted that he chose to make the trip from Houston last night to be with us today Christian is working at the Baker Institute across the disciplines of political science international relations international political economy his research for those of you who are not familiar with his research look him up examines the changing position of Gulf states in the global order which is certainly very relevant to the developments that we are examining today he also has focused on the emergence of longer term non-military challenges in regional security in the Gulf region he worked before that as a senior Gulf analyst at the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies between 2006 and 2008 and as co-director of the Kuwait program on development governance and globalization in the Gulf states at the London School of Economics between 2008 and 2013 he holds a doctorate in history from the University of Cambridge each speaker will speak for 12 to 15 minutes and then we will spend the balance of our time engaging in the art of conversation giving you a chance to engage directly with the speakers through your questions I would just like to remind you that the cards the little pencils on your seat are not to improve your seating they are meant for you to basically write your questions we only entertain questions in writing once you have a question or a comment just raise your card staff will pick it up from you and we'll be more than glad to read and direct your questions to the right speaker or to both please write legibly if you'd like for me to read exactly what you have written and make it short so that we can accommodate as many questions as possible at the front desk we had a copy I don't know if we have enough copies for everybody today but we do have a copy of one of our lead most recent reports this report was based actually on the agenda of our second annual conference that we just held few weeks ago it's about Trump and the Arab world and it's definitely relevant it's written by our staff our analyst and it's available for you at the front desk on your way via back if if we are out of copies feel free to give us a call at the center and we will be more than glad to send you a copy at this time I would like to invite Jamal to the podium please thank you Thank You Holly thank you all for coming in in my career as a journalist and editor I called for everything Mohammed bin Salman is doing right now I am not only me every other sort of the writers commentator we all wanted us to be free from radicalism we all wanted women to be allowed to have the rights to drive and we all wanted burj on corruption because corruption was killing us in Saudi Arabia and we destroyed and corruption is no secret in Saudi Arabia we feel it we see it every day but we just simply cannot report about it so he is doing what we demanded of him to do so why am I being critical simply because he is doing the right things the wrong way very wrong way and I will explain why in a number of points that Khalil has thrown around to us for example on the verge of corruption I think that Saudi people are very much supportive of it right now install your EBA we are going through some kind of euphoria that people don't think don't question media don't discuss the impact of such decisions for two reasons it is this euphoria and also for government control there are people who were called to the State Security to sign pledges not to criticize the government so they chose to stay in their homes other were arrested so in somebody when the writer is arrested if the other writers are afraid to speak because they don't want to be arrested so the environment in Saudi Arabia does not allow for constructive criticism or constructive debate and discourse about lively matter matter that they are going to affect us for the future that is one thing the other thing it is also the of the euphoria the government is feeding into the people high expectation promises and I I would say most of the young people don't want to listen to somebody who would disappoint them with bad news but here in Washington we can discuss the bad news and probably it will find its way through the the use of the stories for example merging corruption yes we the people have thought the anywhere should own it it is not despite what what could be the true motive of Mohammed bin Salman will that his power play or a true genuine fight against corruption we the people of Saudi Arabia need to own the purge of corruption because it is the only thing for us to dry to move into the future this vision 2030 of his can never succeed without a true fight or corruption so I will not spend much of time as a siruni free writer speculating why is he after corruption I will I will I will announce my support and I already did that in Twitter I said I support Mohammed bin Salman in his fight and contraption and I think if the other Cerrone should support him in that but at the same time I would like to see a debate about that the fighting corruption is going to have a major effect on Saudi Arabia it could be about AB or a power play but we will come to that later it is going to have an immediate effect on the economy the private sector is panicking right right now in Saudi Arabia people are worried whether they will be paid at the end of the month in large corporations like the bin Laden company like Donald Baraka company and we are talking about internal Baraka they have about 140,000 employee that's a huge number and with chefs awliya coming and all of his sons are in prayer are in the risk often maybe there is no one to sign the cheques at the end of the month maybe the government is going to sort that out but I'm sure the private sector in Saudi Arabia is panicking but in the long term which is good if this drive against corruption will succeed and it will free Saudi Arabia from the epidemic of corruption it could lead to a proper economy it would lead to elevating of a new middle class in Saudi Arabia but I think he has to distinguish between the royal wealth and the corporation worst the Royals are the reason for corruption they are the one who insulated the price of the contracts they are the one who made it impossible for even good business to to work and flourish in Saudi Arabia their cuts are not 5% the test is in billions corruption in Saudi Arabia it is not a gold necklace that you bus to the the Congress a wife or a governor or we are talking about a project that cost a billion and the value of it will increase to 3 billions just so His Royal Highness will take a cut and his brother will take another cut that of course it will deplete the Saudi national budget it will and according from Hamad bin Salman himself in an interview he made with Bloomberg last April April 2016 he said in the years from 2010 to 2014 a hundred billion dollars every year we are wasted in what he described in efficient spending that is corruption so we are talking about four hundred billion dollars on only four years so if that is the case for a whole decade or two decades we are talking about the trillion dollars that maybe 30 percent of the surrounding Arsenal budget in America you call that your taxpayer money it is our money it is our it is our managers Rudy people 30% of it went away in lavish houses in Los Angeles and hotels in in Paris and under the name of Royal Highness and which is good Mohammed bin Salman after that he need to reclaim that money back and stop this this habit but on the same time what about the corporations those are national corporations they need to be preserved like the bin Laden like the Baraka Algeria see others other America they are panicking they are worried that the follies I wish he would do something like what you do here in America the IRS when they suspect a miss dealing of corporation they will go to the company they will check their books they will argue with them fight with them and end up with the settlement where the company will be a few billions or 20% 50% 60 but something transparent something clear but not to destroy those companies destroying those companies it will have a major impact on Saudi Arabia another important thing we might lose because of that it is trust if the Saudi investors lose trust and again just a week ago or 10 years ago he was MBS had a huge conference in Riyadh where he was introducing Saudi Arabia to the world as a haven or an opportunity for investors I'm sure foreigners who attended that conference are having second thoughts ray Trust is important when General Abdel Nasser nationalized businesses in Egypt in the 60s and in Syria it took the Egyptians and the Syrians generation to regain the trust to reinvest back in their country I wish some advisor will fill that in Hamad bin Salman a trust is important and he is but what he's doing is killing trust then I import the stories are being published in The Financial Times today and there is no comment from Saudi Arabia from the Saudi Minister of Finance of trade of NBS himself with the Financial Times ran in his front-page story about that the government is negotiating with the business community and we'll see and princes to take 70% of their for a settlement and there's no comment from the Saudi government about it that is worrying is it power consolidation or real reform it has to be seen we don't know yet is it going is he going to govern chinese-style where he will clean the house and restart the business in a clean ground or is it a booting style where he will collect all the rules and he will sit on it and he will be the master of everything and he will use the money to make our life to make Saudi Arabia great again of course I don't personally like the butene style I would like the Chinese a style but if we could have a democratic style that would be much better but you see as a citizen a story anyway I don't have much choices Mohammed bin Salman has one and he is going to be the leader of Saudi Arabia for maybe another 50 years he's young and considering the age factor and advancement of medicine maybe he will make it even more than 60 50 years so we just the only thing we could do a straw d'Arabian it's just to hope he will succeed his successes will be our success but this is silly me I made it in my life but for my kids and my grandkids can he succeed can Saudi Arabia in 10 years how do I see it in 10 years um I will Saudi Arabia will be a great success of Hamad bin Salman succeeded in fixing the AB Demick of unemployment it is the it is the most serious thing gonna face him it is the other serious thing is his high expectation he rose expectation to the people he made the young people reach the sky and five years time the people gonna demand and they want to see this futuristic city in the north this receive islands in also in in the north of my hometown Medina so he has to to show them what he had promised but the most important thing he has to fulfill his unemployment and we are talking about 4 million people unemployment in Saudi Arabia and 250,000 people every year in an economy that is controlled by foreign labor the British exited Europe because of eight point nine percent of foreigners in their workforce it is 75 percent to 72 percent to 75 all foreigners who control our workforce in Saudi Arabia that is not a very that is not a natural that is not a very ordinary economy our economy need to be restructured and I wish Mohammed bin Salman will will work from the bottom up and fix the economy before he built new cities but if he can insist in his style of building from the top down building new cities I will forecast bankruptcy for Saudi ballot for a bit I hope not I hope you will change course and he will go to the basic economy economy 101 and start with the people jobs rather than building new cities already he has in front of his of his eyes right now two failed cities that need to that need to work King Abdullah financial city in Riyadh absurd anyone of you who went to Riyadh in your way to the your hotel you will see that beautiful city that looked like another Dubai in the middle of Riyadh not a single office was rented at that city and basically the city of Rio does it need it now he has to find a solution for it the other city is King Abdullah city in the in the West Coast it is partially working not fully working and it needs to work so building new cities is not the solution fighting jobs to the Saudi people through jobs is a solution and I hope he will spend more time at that I think I run out of metal before discussing foreign policy but that is a big problem by itself and and there's a hasty style that is firing back on us in Saudi Arabia and unfortunately empowering the Iranians for every mistake we make the Iranians gain Saudi Arabia is the pillar of stability in the region and it is the pillar for the Sunni world we the sonne are we are the majority Sunni are being victimized we are under the threat by the Shia minority today most of the killing it is happening in our territories in our land and so the Arriva should be there to to counter the Iran expansionism but Saudi Arabia is obsessed with its fight again it's political Islam while it is the mother and father of political Islam Saudi Arabia should need to change its priority and adopt again its origin its traditions go back to it without radicalism and stand up for Iran Iranian expansionism because what that is what is written in us we the Sunnis of the revolt thank you very much Thank You Jamal and now for our second speaker Christian Eriksen thank you very much Khalil for the introduction and for the invitation I will not reiterate what Jamarcus ogia said but I'll just add my own thoughts on some of the changes we have seen which have been interpreted as has been said as varying degrees of power plays or of the sweeping away of the new of the old Saudi state again I think it's too early to tell what I would just say would be that I think the Saudi Arabia we have known since 1953 that came into being after the death of King Abdulaziz has his slipping away and we are seeing really the passing of the old guard and the passing of the old guard in part because of natural causes over the past seven years some of the key figures in the old guards have passed away crampon sultan died in 2011 he had been defense minister for 48 years Conklin's na F died in 2012 he had been interior minister for 37 years so del Faisal died in 2015 he had been foreign minister for 40 years and of course King Abdullah also passed away in 2015 and in addition to his duties as king and previously as Crown Prince he had also headed the National Guard for again a period of 48 years so more by accident and by design the old guard had passed from the scene and a lot of the commentary over the past 10 days has also focused on the apparent sweeping away of the checks and balances that have again been said to traditionally kind of be a feature of Saudi policymaking and it's true that in the past one has had four or five competing factions within the world family competing for influence and ensuring that key decisions have had to have been taken with a degree of consensus that in some cases has meant that policymaking was slow but it did involve all wings of the of the family and of society and again there was nothing constitutionally mandated there's no separation of powers in a formal sense that we would have here in the US so in other countries this system of checks and balances to the extent that it was one of those again more by accident in the sense that you had had those powerful figures within the royal family remaining in position for decades and creating these networks of power that was impossible to ignore so again the the kind of removal of the checks and balances has happened it happened before King Salman came to power and of course it has been the king and Mohammed bin Salman inheritance that they've been able to I suppose not necessarily take advantage but move into this new dynamic where a lot of the old constraints no longer exist so a power grab not to the extent that has been described in the media to the extent that there was a power grab occurred between January 2015 and June 2017 and it really ended when Mohammed bin Salman became Crown Prince we should all take notes as people who observe Saudi Arabia that's five years ago we were all engaged in guessing who might be the next generation of leadership and I think nobody would have even put Mohammed bin Salman on the horizon at that time so we know we have a lesson in humility there but to the extent that a power grab has occurred it's finished and we can obviously see that Mohammed bin Salman is now engaged in in remaking to a degree the Saudi Arabia that he intends to rule as jamal said for another 50 years if if if things go well we're seeing the you know the the passing of the old guards in an accelerated way those who have not passed away are now being eased out of positions we're seeing Mohammed bin Salman putting his own people often from his own generation in charge and trying to recreate some of those networks that says that as a a he's tried to obliterate from the from the older generation another issue we've seen a lot about is that is popular among the youth and I would agree that tackling corruption is a popular or perhaps a populist issue in the sense that many young people in Saudi Arabia who might feel cut out of being given a fair chance or feel that they don't have a prospect of getting a a decent job because of various issues some of which might be vested economic and political issues will probably support the the changes what I would say of course is that there's no way of really knowing in a sense there are no real opinion polls we don't know to what extent these decisions are popular or not and clearly the educated elites who have studied in Western universities and gone back and who perhaps a more vocal in proclaiming the magnitude of these changes are only one part of the whole bigger picture now there are a lot of people in other parts of Saudi Arabia who may not see a trickle-down effect and I think it's absolutely vital that we'd not lose sight we don't focus too closely on just the kind of the elites in Riyadh or in other major cities Masaya Arabia has always been much more than that I do share the concern that Jim alvarius about raising expectations and I think this is a key problem or key challenge that he Mohammed bin Salman has is now facing with his vision 2030 in his national transformation plan and the promise that the Saudi Arabia in the future will behave a more fluid and dynamic Saudi Arabia he has now to deliver and I think even very early science after just a couple of years that the change in transforming a vision into reality is moving much more difficult in practice and it will inherently involve taking on a degree of not as vested interest but structural obstacles in the Saudi economy that I think will require more than just a plan that was cooked up in western consultancies and so far at least I think the initial expectations have had to be have had to have been tempered perhaps because some of the expectations were so far fetched at the beginning the challenge from Mohammed bin Salman is that he is 32 and he owns this process if he gets it right he will secure his kingdom unlike previous Kings for the last 20 years or so who have been in their 70s 80s and even in their 90s he Muhammad SAW man will be the one who has to face that they are reckoning in 20 30 40 years either when Saudi Arabia faces economic and structural challenges that can no longer be ignored or when for example domestic energy consumption which is increasing so rapidly means that so much energy has to be consumed locally that it can no longer export six or seven million barrels of oil per day so Mohammed bin Salman owns this process in a way that none of his predecessors really have it's not something that can be kicked down the road for a future king because if he gets it wrong he could put in peril his entire his entire inheritance and so that's also I think what explains perhaps some of the the scale of the the actions that he's been taking and perhaps some of the urgency that we have seen but it's clearly a high risk it's a high risk bet and if it goes wrong it could go very badly wrong indeed from what I can tell a lot of the messaging this is a company in vision 2030 over the past two years has been aimed much more the international investor community and not necessarily so much should Saudis who are still looking for the sort of basic improvement in their daily or kind of life prospects and I think we saw that on full show not just in a future investment initiative that took place in Riyadh three weeks ago but even this week when we had the misc Global Forum with Bill Gates as one of its key key speakers man bin Salman is trying to pitch a new Saudi Arabia to the international community and to some extent he's been quite successful so my concern is that the actions over the past two weeks just reinforced the stereotyped stereotyped view of the kingdom that people from the outside may just hold of it and so that makes me wonder what may have happened behind the scenes to explain the timing of this action I mean is it just a miscalculation in the sense that Mohammed bin Salman and his team may have thought that sending a tough message on corruption would entice international investors by promising that the new Saudi Arabia was a much freer place to do business in because if that was the case that wasn't a message that has necessarily been received internationally although one might add that both the military operations in Yemen and the trade and diplomatic embargo of Qatar would show that miscalculations have been happening and it's a long-term strategic thinking definitely needs nothing to be to be improved so I think this top-down leadership and the decision to focus on the International rather than perhaps the domestic audience is something that needs to change I think that's sooner rather than later the crown prince and his team will have to begin to show meaningful results that can convince Saudis of all parts of the kingdom that their own lives are going to be transformed for the better and this I think is going to be the yardstick by which Muhammad SAW Man will be judged and again over the next decades this will probably determine whether the new Saudi State the fourth state or whatever we would call it is more sustainable in the long run than the one that we are seeing swept being swept away before our eyes I'd maybe just ends by saying that this is indeed a moment of transformation in the sense that the institutional structures that for decades with thoughts were kind of solidified because they were so entrenched and now suddenly in place that there is a moment to try and remake institutions and clearly recreate leadership structures and I think it'll be fascinating we won't know the answer to this of course but to be fascinating to see if this moment of change also solidifies as its predecessor has done in the 1950s and 60s into another kind of status that maybe prohibits changed down the line there was a lot of talk about Mohammed bin Salman becoming defense minister at the age of 29 but of course we shouldn't forget that principle time became defense minister when he was 32 and he died at defense minister at the age of 80 so this system has opened up perhaps contrary to the expectations of a lot of analysts but it's opened up because of a sequence of events that were not necessarily coordinated but the key interest I think going forward is is it going to close around Mohammed bin Salman and be just as perhaps impenetrable to long term change as the past has been as well so with that I'll open it up to questions just raise your card and step we'll pick it up from you and bring it over here let me start reading your questions the first question is from Mohammad Shah now a voice of America prominent business persons are among detainees in the Saudi in Saudi Arabia 100 billion dollar corruption crackdown they have invested billions of dollars in economic and agricultural projects in north and east africa how would the crackdown affect such projects globally Yemen would you like it will it has actually twice I come across this question from an uber driver are the microphones on okay thank you right who happened to be from Bolivia and they both noticed that I'm from Saudi Arabia was talking on the phone to some someone and and then they began having a conversation with me about fashion and a moody person that already has about 40,000 employees in a Serbia and I'm sure most of them are worried now whether they would be paid at the end of the month or not yeah he has also huge business in in Morocco and in Sweden and we can start drawing a plan about others about the bin Laden's about Salah Hamelin about potentials who would be added to the list of corruption I just heard a new name today from a friend in the audience but I can reach no way to confirm it rumors are spreading like like really crazy in Saudi Arabia and in what stop I get all kind of news about people added to the list and unfortunately corruption is as I said it's a way it was a way of life and and it and this is an Hamad bin Salman has now in his hand a magic stick this hardly could be a royal who isn't involved in some form of corruption corruption also need to be identified what is corruption in Saudi Arabia is a land grab a land grant corruption or land grab is a corruption because Royals are involved in post land grant by the kink which make it legal even though we can argue about it islamically and land grab and so the stick of corruption is reachable to everybody and that is scaring almost everyone in Saudi Arabia and feel that I am next and that I'm sure is going to have an impact on the society the the quick fix thing for that is transparency so far our Attorney General hasn't given given a hasn't give a press conference Mohammed bin Salman hasn't gives an interview to anybody there is need to do that someone our Attorney General need to do like I think a brisk conference every couple of days it's a huge thing that need more transparency will be absolutely vital as well I mean as as you said establishing a new royal decree by world to clear new commission headed by the crown prince who can almost define what corruption means to him isn't necessarily going to reassure international investors now so I think the process will be very important or lack of in terms of whether or not investors are reassured or take right yes Lama from Georgetown University how do you propose Hamad bin Salman should address the Muslim Brotherhood's presence in the country either or address the ball good all right I think the muslim brothers are his natural allies his Saudi Arabia is a revivalist Islam country and he cannot run away from that yes radicalism clipped into Saudi Arabia by untamed Wahabis home King Abdulaziz crushed in 1930 but they came back after 1979 but the Muslim Muslim Brotherhood provided the answer for modernity talking Faisal in the 1960s they are a positive contribution to Saudi Arabia and Mohammed bin Salman need to free himself from this unneeded paranoia of the Brotherhood and need to form an alliance with them to counter Iranian expansionism in the region is a total and needed confrontation we are going through in Saudi Arabia it is splitting the society and it is weakening Saudi Arabia this is my answer thank you okay this question is for you Jim al from mark Goodell from Chevron with reference to employing Saudi citizens will Saudi family Saudi society in general Saudi culture accept their sons and daughters working in blue collar collar jobs yes economy will change habits I think Karl Marx said that we the Saudis used to do everything to work on everything I wrote a book about that it is called telecaster OD the occupation of the Saudi market and they told the stories about my generation and my father generation my father was himself god bless his soul he was a farmer he used to he used the butter or or he used to make dates in containers and that was a dirty it was kind of a that gets you dirty so so Rudy could do everything in with the first boom after 1973 war and with with the price of oil price of oil doubling we had a huge boom and we made the mistake of importing foreign laborers and you can find quotation of the official or said at that time this is only temporary the foreign labor we need them to build infrastructure and they will eventually go they never went we become addicted to it and that killed that did not only take the jobs away it killed the work ethics in us it killed the work culture and us now we the Saudis think and we assume that we cannot do work because we are addicted to it this is the big task that Mohammed bin Salman need to work on it is a social political economic task he needs to he need to spend more time on it rather than building a new city in the north thank you in US asked this was not the first missile fired from the Houthis on two towards Saudi Arabian territory so why was it so widely publicized this time I mean absolutely right it wasn't the first it may have been the first was targeting or at least landed in or around we out or was intercepted around we had so he may have been taken as a much more as much more of a direct strike at the heart of the Saudi Saudi system I think the the fact that the war in Yemen is continuing is quite frankly not what was planned in 2015 when operations began and every time a missile comes over it's a signal from the Houthis and from international backers that they they retain the capacity to creates embarrassment for the Saudi leadership and that is I think something the Saudis not yet haven't yet figured out a way to try and resolve I think the dilemma they have in Yemen is that decisive an overwhelming force to try and force the issue would be too much of a a cost in terms of lives potentially lost and treasure lost and so there's a sort of halfway house where they they're not willing to necessarily going to back out but they don't just really have the capacity to to actually win sure also there is something important about dismissal which is it's been proven by the sorority investigation and the Americans are back in that it is an Iranian made its poor can't to missile that is recently introduced into the war front that that the Eman is did not have before their Emily keep firing old-fashioned Scud missiles on us but this one is irani ins which is a proof that the Iranians have succeeded despite the war in sneaking in this missile into Yemen territories and maybe it was put together and by Yemenis or by Iranian or by Hezbollah operative and that is taken to Saudi Arabia as a game-changer that it's an act of war by the Iranians and Hezbollah and Saudi Arabia and it's rightly so mean the Iranians if they had the opportunity to send tons of pork on Messiah to Saudi Arabia we'd do it they were so so so that's will enforce my argument that's all Gary we need to to stand up to the Iran in expansionism but it needs to do with the right way Trump urging the Sunni Arab world to come together against Iran the city or the Saudis Emiratis in Boston is turned on Qatar which I think was a strange way of trying to present a united front okay well talking about Yemen when will the war in Yemen stop if Prince Mohammed bin Salman read a little bit about what his uncle Faisal did in 1965 in 1965 King Faisal who was supporting part of the M&E in in the civil war he distanced himself from all sides and he played a broker of two V's to all Yemenis and ever since that time Saudi Arabia become like an equal partner to all of human I think impious need to rediscover that again and reach out to Yemenis whether they are houses or / and he recently met with the sloppy in in Riyadh and that was very interesting because the supposedly the issue on our in Saudi Arabia terrorism list and here he is meeting with the leader of the issue on of Yemen which is good and it is ironic about listing this one in the terrorist list because the Saudi Arabia the Syrians is one are there the chief of this year if what is in Saudi Arabia and the chief of for Eminiar is in Saudi Arabia I don't know about other record maybe - maybe they are often Saudi Arabia so that is the best way to in the world is for Saudi Arabia to reach out to all Yemenis net not favor one side against the other just like how King Faisal did that exactly what each person did in 1965 in Hara the next question is from les zhanka explained the dynamics of the royal family will its cohesion be threatened when King Salman passes away might Salman resign before that well I think there's only one person who probably knows the answer to that question and and that's the king himself I mean we have a lot of speculation clearly and every time there is said to be an imminent abdication it hasn't come to pass one can read whatever one wants into that is there more domestic pushback then as anticipated I guess we don't know in terms of family dynamics my concern perhaps is that so Salman has for a long time in the past performed the role of almost like a chief whip of the family he sort of kept he was instrumental in maintaining family discipline and he was not just fierce but also respected for that and it looks as if at least to some extent Mohammed bin Salman is trying to take on that mantle of also being the sort of family enforcer but you know will he have the gravitas the seniority to also make kind of impose the respect on all the different branches that may now to some extent feel like they have less of a stake in the Saudi Arabia they see coming together and so what it's no big question whether once Salman has passed away does the glue that has kept the family together begin to become a little weaker and again as something we won't necessarily know that I agree with Christian and I will add I think Mohammed bin Salman is bitter of maintaining the status quo he's enjoying the status of his father as the last kind of Abdul Aziz who is gluing the family together and actually he King Salman is the last or or the last leader of the family so he needs to keep him and wildly consolidate his power for one or two or three more years so I just I think we should rule out all those stories about application I don't think it will happen but will the family stay united the family has so this fragmented so all those stories about that Mohammed bin Salman had to start this verge on corruption to a pre-emptive a plan or coup I don't I don't agree with that because I don't anticipate or build or I can't I cannot see the royal family uniting against Muhammad bin Salman so or so weak so fragmented we should remember they are former generation of lavishness of most of their concerns are about the latest expensive watch and the latest trip they had to the fridge rivera they are not into politics they are into exploitation and they are fragmented they are they have inves jealousies of each other there is no leader there there their traditions had been irritated or not irritated that they had been slipping away from them they lost that traditional al-saud Wahhabi position that they have lost it an interesting book was published by a royal who is not a niche are each called al marutas siruni by turkey bin abdullah bin abdul rahman an excellent book that explained that the dismantling of the tradition of the founding ingredients of the of the House of Saud and that book is not in Saudi Arabia that allows its own video but it should be and I wish embarrassed would read it because it is his legitimacy now they are talking about secularism and Saudi Arabia that is the craziest thing that I also would do because the concept of polyamory is what make a king enjoy a divine power to rule e why would you as a citizen I would like him to let go of that and so he would be more accountable but why would somebody who enjoys this divine rule give it away it is a it is just like asking Henry the eighth's to give away that privilege he wouldn't give it away easily but if Muhammad one said one want to give it away his welcome to do so Stanley cover Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon in seven am reminded of 1973 the Soviet diplomats leaving Cairo and that was followed by a war can we see that the request from dolphin citizens to leave Lebanon through the same prison but I think Lebanon is a very dangerous arena to start trying to if they're trying to stir things up I don't think there would be a clear-cut resolution in any anyway and I'm even now the Israelis have almost acknowledged that they're not willing to at least yet to start a conflict or to kind of take action against what they see as Hezbollah on the other hand perhaps removing Haredi from the scene means it's easier for the Saudi government to or other Gulf governments to actually say look there's less even less of a kind of anti Hezbollah function in Lebanon and you know trying to maybe long term say well the Lebanese government basically is Hezbollah influenced even more so than it and it was by removing one of the more sort of anti anti Hezbollah factions but again that seems to have backfired at least at the beginning where Lebanese have now kind of rallied around and so at least come home and then we can we can talk about this so again I don't think it's produced the results that were necessarily expected two weeks ago and that could be why there's a degree of backing off by allowing how did he to to at least go to France and then potentially back back to Beirut we have several questions pertaining to Hariri Delinda Henley and let me see if de Sam and is it was on we have a different question saying what's going on with the Hariri situation and and Lebanon and how will that impact the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon it has already impacted the relationship even even to our dear Sudanese of Lebanon who always look up to Saudi Arabia for support for the first time the Sunnis of Lebanon become critical of Saudi Arabia that is a true fire back on a hasty decision made by embarrass yes he had a good argument for taming down Hezbollah and I'm sure sir that Hariri would have sat with him and develop a plan a proper plan that could involve the Americans the French to counter Hezbollah but the way it was conducted the way it was orchestrated it fired back a Saudi Arabia and he need to salvage it very quickly maybe thanks to the French now they are in helping us out to salvage the situation and Hariri will be flying to Paris tomorrow with his family and then hopefully he would go back to Lebanon and resume his law his role as a leader so I think the task now for Saudi Arabia is to salvage two things the Saudi position in Lebanon to restore it again because we we can to lose it we to lose our our influence there and the al-hariri family it took the Sunnis in Lebanon two decades to find a proper leadership to lead and here we are weakening that leadership it is important to restore Hariri's credibility in Lebanon and I and I hope this is the future plan for impairs not to weaken hurry anymore by suggesting his brother Baja to be the prime minister or saddle Hariri need to be to be empowered again it is good for Saudi Arabia and also the Saudi position in Lebanon as what is the world the safeguard for the at least the Sunni and the Christian community the Iranians have an exclusivity over the shares just a couple of follow up related to Hariri and and and Lebanon Aziz fami was asking if in addition to the issue of Hezbollah was Hariri implicated in the other part of the campaign the corruption issue and related to that Mohammed as always is asking was how do J you didn't mention that and the companies was it also implicated using the stick of corruption dislodge acoustic cartridge al-hariri al-hariri and sorrow DOJ are as corrupt as bin Laden or any other anyone else but I'm sure his other heart might protect him but and again we need transparency right now in the Saudi media is still celebrating in euphoric language the war on corruption by the great leader but there is no true investigation investigative journalism what is the status of thorough DOJ is it totally bankrupt it is totally out of Saudi Arabia we did really you will not find proper reporting about that sorrow DOJ suffered a great deal before the the corruption campaign but I'm sure it is still there I'm sure they are there still issues with with its involvement with royalties and they were involved with royalties all France any even king king fahad Center for a printing the Holy Quran is an example of corruption that that that that is that deserve an investigation you know a single the cost of a single copy of the Holy Quran from Medina coming from the fat from the printing house is maybe ten times if it was printed by anyone else next nextdoor so there is an issue to investigate in corruption so basically saddle Hariri is reachable by the corruption is thick but so far we haven't heard anything of that sort and maybe his hat as a prime minister of Lebanon will protect him so but it should reach someone else in within the family or within the company Christian appear elucha us from a virus from American University can the magnitude of the recent changes be considered as a moment of transition in terms of an anti Sagwa new phase in Saudi society well I think it's definitely a moment to transition and we've obviously seen MBS being very vocal about his interpretation of extremist Islam being rejected and again like I think with the corruption it's too much is resting on one man's interpretation and perhaps there needs to be a wider or societal debate and dialogue about this it's it's again such a top-down imposed manner that I don't think there's going to be a wide-ranging input from from groups that clearly will be impacted by some of the changes that are being made and so if if there's no debates it could just breed resentment or over question even going forward and I think that's that's a mistake a lot of social debates need to be had I think and as Jamal said it's kind of this isn't necessarily going about it the right way okay Jamal there are several questions regarding kind of issues of succession and governance one basically question is can we infer from the fact that Mohammed bin Salman has no deputy Crown Prince at this time that his sons will be future I mean are we witnessing even Saud 2.0 again because of the situation rumors are spreading and one of the most interesting rumor I had recently from and HRH in London that MPs is thinking of downsizing the royal family this is good news for us that's already people and it is good for him because actually the number of the royal family is a burden it's a burden on the treasurer it is a burden on him and it is a burden in any future king of Saudi Arabia because they always have demands and they will come to him and they need an administration by themselves to manage their either problems or their needs and now the Royal Family's member who have and are his role HRH title are the son of the grand of the founder of the kingdom abdul aziz and then we are talking about five to six thousand grandson of abdul aziz around that number i don't have the figure but there is a department at the Ministry of Finance that bears the stipend for them who has details of each one of them and has details of their allowances or stipend so his plan is to issue a decree to call only the king and his sons as an HR h so if he become a king or his father now so it will be only Al Sandman who are be an HR h and the and the rest are royal families also that or maybe stripe the whole title from them previously his father used to include either weak or distant member of the family into the family for example the new Minister for the National Guard he wasn't a prince 20 years ago he's from Elias and they were not part of the royal family they were added to the royal family by a decree made by Prince Salman when he was the governor of Riyadh but is Salman at that time had an interest to widen the circle of the royal family the Alpher hand also were not part of the family but now they are part of the family so it seems that this is the rumor that he will restructure or redefine who is a royal which maybe will lead him to develop a similar to the british or jordanian or Moroccan style of royal family and I think this is good this is good for our budget it is good it is good for the public for the future new emerging middle class Royals enjoy privileges and they have an advantage today if he has a better chance to get a better hospital bed than me he has a better chance to get way more larger land grant than me so the list Royals we have the merrier it's good for Saudi Arabia to do that and it is good for him all right Christian do you think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has exaggerated or given too much credit to the host to the Houthis is it really kind of parted Iran Saudi competition or is is that threat genuine well obviously the Houthis had already swept out of their traditional strongholds and taken Sanaa by September 2014 and by the time that King Salman came to power I think it was the same night that he came to power that president Hadi was forced to into or he I think he was imprisoned temporarily and so the government fell the same night that some man came to power clearly the Houthis had an alliance of convenience with Ali Abdullah Saleh the former president who had his own interest in destabilizing his successor I think Yemen is the oppas a warning of what happens in a transition States when the former leader is still playing an active political role this hasn't happened in any of the other states that went through a regime change as a result of the 2011 uprisings and of course it they made for a very unlikely pair of partners given the the series of wars that had been fought by the Yemeni government with the Houthis between 2004 and 2010 I think maybe there was an overreaction in terms of imagining this to be another sort of front organization but as with a missile that we saw two weeks ago that kind of has become a self-fulfilling prophecy as its created the conditions for the breakdown of authority and control that has allowed Iran and Iranian groups or backed groups to to gain influence and so kind of the situation is now basically as if the one that they had been saying in 2015 that this is another front what I would say is that trying to take on the Iranians with proxy groups is not necessarily I mean the Iranians have a forty-year practice of working with groups like Hezbollah and this is a dangerous I mean they're experts in how they do that and I think in Yemen and also in Syria that's been shown that they can maintain levels of direct and indirect influence that is far out maps to at least the Sunni Arab states ability to do the same and that's going to be a problem in every regional conflict I think going forward Michael Hudson would like to know a little bit more about the background education-wise and how did that shape Hamid pencil man's worldview what does he get his advice there was surprised to learn yesterday from a friend of mine who teach in an American University that he advised Mohammed bin Salman so that that that was good news for me that he does reach our to proper advisor but the same friend said to me what would make me angry he doesn't listen to my advice and he has the best advice that when it comes to development and changing the face of Saudi Arabia he he's been with billions of dollars on those consultants consultants so he has no problem with advisers he could have benefited from Prince Turki al-faisal who's an an excellent expertise of foreign policy but he doesn't he doesn't need proper advisers because if he looked back at the decision decisions he made he will realize that they did not evolve into his likeness the way it is if it's not failure it is stagnation like the immense deviation but we also failed in Syria we also failed in our failing now in Yemen and in in in in Lebanon but one can argue about that he needs to revise either his advisor or his strategy there is need to that and there is also a need maybe maybe there's a bad we didn't maybe there will be a question about this it is what I call the Trump effect the Trump I think had been a negative influence on Mohammed and Salman he gave him the wrong premises or a false premises that he can support him to change the Middle East that he can support him to oust the Iranians out of Syria and out of Iraq but again Mohammed we said man should have an advisor who were telling him that even Trump is sincere in his promise he cannot deliver because United States be gigantic it for Trump to get involved against the Iranians in Syria he need to get the concession the the consensus and understanding from the Pentagon from the the Congress to do such a thing so he should know that wherever Jared Kushner and Trump promise they cannot deliver but we need to spend some time about the Trump effect on MBAs and and how it and how is that is net is destabilizing the Middle East you rented estate also lead to speak in one voice not dual voices so that will send the wrong message to a leader like Mohammed bin Salman listening to Trump and listening to Tennyson and assuming that there is a difference between them but basically the u.s. can play a very major positive role in impacting things in Saudi Arabia because they are the only one who have kind of a leverage on Saudi Arabia today I didn't think the biggest miscalculation that he made was to assume that if Trump's won the US government would swing with him and perhaps it does go back to the fact that maybe there was a Innova expectation or a sense that the personalization of decision-making in the US government at least in his first year in office offered an opportunity and I think maybe more karma advice or kind of decision-making might've cautioned otherwise but I think that is the key miscalculation that was made alright the next question is from Andrew grades Department of Energy address to both of you how do you see the pace of economic reforms unfolding specifically in terms of the reduction in subsidies for the domestic gas and electricity prices and so on what I think so far some of the initial measures have been either watered down or even put off and I think one benefit if he is serious about going through with a lot of the painful measures that inevitably will have to be parts of vision 2030 is if he can now show through his actions over the past two weeks that he's serious about this and actually is not going to Brook any discontent because I think over the past two years of the first sign of a public backlash this the government has to some extent change course and I think the trade-offs involved in transitioning the Saudi economy to a more sustainable long term economic structure not just with reduction in subsidies but also clearly labor market reform and creating those jobs that young Saudis will move into not foreign workers is going to involve taking on those vested economic interests to have a vested interest in maintaining the advantages they have and so if those vested interests are now thinking well actually he's taking on key elements that's are going to resist some of the changes then he could have a chance to succeed but I mean that's going to be the main thing creating those jobs that can really show a trickle-down effect and that can actually make the vision a reality for for young Saudis one of the high expectation he promised us is to have a more transparent budget and we need to see more of that because now with all those discussions about the virtual corruption with the aim according to the Financial Times and the holy city journal that is to gain some of the Wolves of the corrupt and added to the national tragedy that shows a negative sign to the status of the National Treasury that it needs to take money from the corrupt to utter the national tragedy so what is a true situation in the in our reserve and then the National Treasury there is a reluctance see that is influenced by politics when it comes to stopping subsidies or allowances to government employees he ordered back that louses that they were scrubbed from government employees and I think they were two drivers to that politics and the other driver the effect on on the private on the local market Saudi Arabia is going through a recession because of that and but the recession is maybe now will be reinforced with a version corruption but the things I like and the government is still doing that it's it's the drive against the set-off against illegal businesses illegal foreign businesses in Saudi Arabia who are doing a who are working and the cover-up by a Saudi Arabian is a major Christ emic that affecting our national economy that a huge number of businesses are operated in Saudi Arabia by foreigners who own it who manage it who operate it but it is in the name of Saudis so I began to see pictures of the souk in Riyadh or in up ha shut down this even though it's a sign of recession but it is good because we because those those businesses are not contributing to the national budget to the national economy and they need to let go of so the Saudis will go back to the culture of work so this is continuing and I hope it will continue but there is a great deal of reluctance ii-in on the plans altogether alright Warren David asked a question regarding the Saudi perspective vis a vie Iran Christian is the so called Iranian expansionism that Jamaat referred to earlier is it really a genuine threat and why isn't why isn't Mohammed bin Salman promoting more diplomatic rather than an interventionist or military confrontational policy in this regard by the fact that all around Saudi Arabia there were conflicts involving state and non-state actors that clearly Iran has been involved in and to be honest has a lot more ability to use for their own ends and you know these aren't conventional conflicts but they're conflicts using the resources the tools that Iran has developed for for four decades and as I said earlier I mean both in Syria and now in Yemen you know taking on Iran on in terms of trying to out smart it with your own proxies is is a difficult task when you're your foe has been doing this expertly for four years and so I think that's the challenge that they face I think also the you know the creations of state failure over the past seven years because it's been almost seven years now of turmoil on almost every regional front you know has really resulted in an expansion of the opportunities available to everyone to project himself into regional affairs going back almost 15 years if you talk about the occupation of Iraq after 2003 and so now this is a kind of a fast-moving situation which has clearly created those pathways that have been failed by Iran and by their groups I think the defeat of Isis in northern Iraq and in Syria while obviously very welcomed is potentially another deeply concerning element if you're looking at at it from an anti Iranian points of view because I think a lot of the spaces that could be filled could also now link up a lot of those Iranian groups across the region in a contiguous way and I think that would be another key concern to to watch John Anderson would like to know what percentage of the Saudi budget outlay goes to stipends allowances to Prince's royal family members do you have any idea no nobody knows it is not a public knowledge which will not be listed in any future budget maybe in the future but no I don't know the only figure I know and I heard it from a prince who is a grandson of the king so then you can do a calculation that he receives a hundred and thirty thousand reals a month so his father would receive double that his children will receive lists of that and the girls will take half you do your calculation if you know the number of royalties Bish's from firsthand from a prince this one handled in the thirties you can use it as a base for your calculation it was him asks Jamal to comment on the major reason for Benson man's campaign at this time is it to have a deeper monarchy is this like to create a more convenient regime I don't know what are his true motives but if we are suggesting that he's doing that for him to buff his way to power he doesn't need to he's already on the throne he doesn't need to he doesn't need to arrest me to have been Abdullah to to become a king of colony because he's already the idea facto king of Saudi Arabia but did that enforce his position yes it did enforce his position now as much as as he has intimidated us the people of Saudi Arabia that most of us are afraid to speak out freely in the media because we know a cousin or a friend or an associate whose are listed now the Royals are as intermediated as us in that useful for him to enjoy total authority I don't know it he can answer that but I don't think he need to intimidate us nor the Royals to to rule because he's really there is no challenge no power that could challenge him or stop him from becoming a king of Saudi Arabia he is using the most powerful power it is the absolute monarchy well your Amaral power and that is enough power that any if if it wasn't King Salman as if Mogollon was today the king of Saudi Arabia his son will enjoy the same power if I had been Abdel Aziz did not step out of the race and he became the Crown Prince or the king of Saudi Arabia his son would have enjoyed the same power so the power yes Mohammed smart is I mean he outperformed everybody he has his own personal there are personal medicine in him which would not rule out Abdul Aziz bin Fahad was in the same position but he wasn't really as smart as Mohammed bin Salman so we should give him credit for being smart and now he has to to perform as a leader in economic and in an in foreign policy but his most important source of power is this concept of when I attend a brush and and it's plenty of power it's an absolute monarchy a source of power maybe you can explain it bitter good and this is this vital concept well now I mean I think if you start to tinker with these traditional sources of power authority and legitimacy you're opening up a kind of worms that you might not want to open up and so especially at the same time that you're engaged in such a wide-ranging attempt to reformulate the economic and perhaps even this sort of socio religious aspects of society there's a danger perhaps of being spread too thin even without all the foreign policy issues going on and try to do too much too fast and you know to what extent is our the bandwidth to try to take on every front at the same time that would be another concern I would have perhaps going forward I think this remark probably answers Geoff Wiley's question Jeff is with the State Department in terms of how all these steps taken over the past several weeks will impact the relationship between the Saudi monarchy and the fundamentalist religious establishment the fundamentalist religious establishment they are on the payroll of the government when Mohammed bin Salman says that he wants to destroy radicalism he should have said I'm going to unblock radicalism radicalism would not have flourished in Saudi Arabia if it wasn't for government support all what he need to do is just unplug it those radicals who were empowered in putting their radicalism into our textbook by the government they did not win an election and they and they shared over with the with with the answer who they were empowered by them for a certain period of time now the the the prince or the kingdom realized that they are a burden on it so they are just unplugging their support and blaming the f1 for it actually the radicals are not the one the radicals are the that were happy infrastructure that is surrounding the government and is still until today the senior counsel of Allah is infested with radical with Allah more with radical views radical views about the Shia's radical views about women's right radical views can it will be useful to do a paper about the political thinking or the social think you know sale of shares Alejandro Hayden or our Grand Mufti or or or sir Hal Suzanne and and address their views about minorities about relation to non-muslims about their diversity's how did they see other Muslim sects and then you will judge who is truly radicals I was annoyed by one I saw Rudy who was talking on a TV program a few days ago and made notice that Prince Mohammed bin Salman is arresting the Claridge's who could stop his reform it is not true the Claridge's who are arrested 90 percent of them they are for reform we are about democracy whether about woman driving abdullah al Maliki who was arrested last September he even called to remove male guardianship right on females in Saudi Arabia this is one of the most sensitive issues in Saudi Arabia to remove male guardianship on women abdullah al Marquis who's arrested and been accused as being radical wrote an essay about that none of the gun of the clergies in the Senior Council of Rana ma would dare write a similar essay and they are the one who are being patron and being respected by the Authority today the true deformers today in Seoul early they are in jail yes all right abdullah Maliki we're going to conclude with our times up the last question I will entertain is from John Duke Anthony one minute each how do you see the near or long-term future of the GCC as a result of all this unless we enlist the Qatari crisis is resolved the cavaties are also anxious and worried the GCC will be on a freeze and that we would and if the summit will not be held this year this this sample with all is with all the six members we might lose the GCC I think it's a great shame if the summit doesn't take place in Kuwait because qh has been the leading regional mediator and it would be an opportunity to at least get everyone in the room i think we've seen in the past in the region institutions don't necessarily get dissolved they just become irrelevant and marginalized and I suspect that the GCC will remain on paper with or without Qatar but we've seen every stage of this crisis every major decision has been taken has been bypassing the GCC and I think that will just continue thank you very much ladies and gentlemen this concludes our event today please join me in thanking both speakers for their excellent presentations thank you for being here we look forward to seeing you in future events Thanks

Channel: Arab Center Washington DC

Views: 166,826

Keywords: Saudi, Arabia, Yemen, hariri, saad, mohammed, bin, Salman, KSA, Islam, Alwaleed, talal, corruption, Qatar, Iran, terrorism, Oil, business, investment, vision, 2030, MBS, MBZ, Riyadh, Aramco, Trump, Jared, Kushner, Arab, Jamal, Khashoggi, Kristian, Ulrichsen, Palestine, Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, UAE, Emirates, United, Bahrain, Doha, Abu, Dhabi, purge, arrest, power, consolidation, wahabi, wahabism, clerics, salafi, turkey, saudi, Ritz, Carlton

Id: IPn4LqEKkak

Length: 90min 58sec (5458 seconds)

Published: Fri Nov 17 2017