Geoff: After days of stops and starts, the U.S. Senate today moved toward giving Ukraine, Israel, and other allies billions in aid. This is a major step, though far from the final one. It's all unfolding as Ukraine is running out of supplies and time to fend off Russia's advances. Here to break this all down are Lisa Desjardins, Laura Barron Lopez, and Nick schifrin. Welcome to all three of you. Where do things stand on the hill? Lisa: To remind people, where the situation was was house and senate Republicans demanded and pushed for this border security and also national security foreign aid bill together. Then they decided they were going to block that, senate Republicans. So Democrats said we will take out the border portion which you said you cannot agree to. Then senate Republicans also blocked the bill with that portion stripped out as they said they wanted. This morning senate Republicans could not figure out what they wanted to do. At lunch time a group of 17 senate Republicans broke with the rest of their party and voted to advance that national security bill over the key senate hurdle. 67 votes in the eor over this obstacle. Let's look at this bill. It is a $95 billion bill in total. $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, the highest dollar figure $14 billion for Israel. $9 billion for several places including gaza. Includes -- what is important here is that this is now a bill that has the votes to make it through the senate. We do not know when it will because of course the senate takes its time. But sometime by early next week it looks like the bill will clear the senate. Geoff: What happens in the house? Is Mike Johnson amenable to any of this? Laura: We don't know. I have been told that Johnson has said he wanted this bill separated into different pieces. His office said no. This will be a test for Mike Johnson. If he brings the bill up in a bipartisan forum it could risk his speakership because the hard right has a problem with bipartisan bills. Geoff: Remind us how we got here. Laura: When we go back to the fall, president Biden introduced this national security package with the border security in it because Republicans asked for that. Then Republicans wanted more. They wanted real substantive changes to immigration and asylum policy and the white house came to the negotiating table, albeit some Democrats think they came a little too late in December. They conceded a lot, more than any prior democratic administration has before. Typically Democrats ask for a pathway to citizenship for dreamers in exchange for giving Republicans more on border security. This one did not have that. Then Donald Trump entered the chat. And he tweeted on January 17 that he did not think there should be a border deal unless Republicans could get everything. Then again just this week in addition to repeating over and over that this bill was a gift to Democrats and a death wish to the Republican party, I spoke to senator Chris coons of Delaware today who said he was talking to a lot of GOP senators in recent days who said they were getting phone calls from Donald Trump saying, why are you trying to help Joe Biden? I need this issue to get elected. Senator James Lankford also repeated this, essentially saying he was intimidated by a conservative commentator saying that if Lankford supported in moved this bill forward, that he would be destroyed. Geoff: So how is president Biden responding to the demise of this border deal and more Ukraine funding? Laura: The white house is using those facts on the timeline I just laid out to essentially jewel the GOP -- cudgel the GOP. They are citing the border patrol labor union has endorsed the border deal they struck with Republicans. Senator coombs also told me he thinks Biden should go down to the border, have the bill in hand, waving around and say he was willing to sign it. Other Democrats say they think the president should strike that contrast, making clear he was willing to buck some Progressives in his own party to get this bill over the finish line and sign it. As for Ukraine, national security council spokesperson John Kirby said that the president is not giving up on trying to get some GOP support for this. >> The president believes that support for Ukraine is critical, particularly right now as Russia continues to hit their defense industrial base. It is vital. And he is confident. Based on the meetings he has had with leaders on capitol hill and the discussions he has had over recent weeks, again, that the leadership even on the house side, the leadership is solidly in support of supporting Ukraine. Laura: Democratic hill sources have told me they have asked the white house if there is anything the president can do on his own outside of congress to get aid for Ukraine. I asked John Kirby about that and he said those are private conversations and that the president will continue talking to leadership on the hill and Republicans on the hill. But some Democrats also said that if the president were to even take solo action to help Ukraine, they think that there might be some options there. Even if he does it will not be at the scale Ukraine needs. Geoff: Officials say the lack of funding has real consequences for Kyiv's ability to hold off Russian advances. Nick: It is already seen on the front line right now. Ukraine failed in its own goals for the counteroffensive last year. It has begun to ration on the front line this year because of the lack of U.S. Military support. And it knows as long as this debate goes on, it will continue to have to ration. And that means that Russian artillery up and down the front is already outnumbering Ukraine and Ukraine is about to lose control of a major city in the east. And as dire that sounds as there is even a bigger problem. U.S. Officials believe that as this day continues, Ukraine will run out of air defense. What that means is Ukraine's ability to shoot down Russian drones, Russian missiles, that are currently attacking Ukrainian critical infrastructure. That is to keep the power going, the lights on in Ukraine. In addition to that it is Ukrainian air defense that prevents Russian jets from being able to fly over Ukrainian territory, not only the front but even western Ukraine. And so the bottom line is it is hard to imagine Ukraine holding onto its own territory today, let alone trying to recapture some of that 20% territory that Russia occupies right now. As for a plan B that Laura was talking about, there certainly are discussions about what could come next. But the bottom line, national security advisor Jake Sullivan yesterday said there is no alternative to these funds. These funds that provide ammunition that go to Ukraine immediately, within weeks. That is what Ukraine needs, and right now they are not getting it. Geoff: Our thanks to all three of you. ♪♪
