Russia's influence over former Soviet republics is starting to fade | DW News

oh people in motels are rolly to show the enthusiasm for joining the EU in Georgia anti-fremlin protests draw tens of thousands and in Central Asia Kazakhstan seeks closer ties with China turkey and the West these three countries from different corners of the former USSR are examples of how some of the former Southeast states are drifting away from Russia is Putin loosen gripped on his own backyard to understand what's happening we need to rewind to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. following the dissolution of the USSR 15 independent states are formed apart from the three Baltic states who will eventually join the EU and NATO others form economic and political alliances led by Moscow throughout the following decades Russia continues to see post Soviet States as part of its sphere of influence some stay closely within moscow's orbit like Belarus but others start to move towards the West like Georgia under president Mikhail sakashvili who was elected after a peaceful revolution in 2004 and aspired to take Georgia into NATO and the EU Russia meanwhile employs a range of tactics to assert its dominance including inflaming territorial conflicts in many cases a resorts to the use of Brute Force in 2008 Putin launched an invasion in Georgia this was considered the first European War of the 21st Century is centered on South osettia and abcasia self-proclaimed Breakaway regions that refused to recognize Central Georgian rule ever since its independence in the 1990s when Georgie tried to recapture south of Zetia in 2008 and against the backdrop of the den government's plan to join NATO Russia sent troops to support the two separatist territories and their pro-russian leaders after crushing Georgian forces in five days of fighting Moscow recognized them as independent states and still stations thousands of soldiers there today this affects the Georgian security because the 40 kilometers from TBC you have basically Russian troops which are actually based in occupied territory of the region and of course when you have uh 20 of your territory occupied by Russia uh people don't feel um you know easy that uneasiness increased after Russia's annissation of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014. and when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is third Fiesta Georgia could be the next Target it's a fear shared by many Moldova located in Eastern Europe which has its own Croatia Breakaway region just nistria a narrow Street bordering Western Ukraine declared itself independent from Moldova after the collapse of the USSR it is under the control of a de facto pro-russia government its population is heavily for Russia and it receives moscow's Military Support the main main threats from transnistry are from all over but also for Ukraine it's the presence of a Russian military contingent there and also the presence of a huge Depot of ammunitions no one really knows how many pieces of ammunitions are there whether they still can be used or not against the backdrop of these fears the people of Moldova like Georgia have become increasingly pro-eu seeing possible membership as the best way to protect themselves against Russian aggression modofa together with Ukraine gained the EU candidates status in 2022 departed name is [Music] but joining the EU is not just about survival for many is about building a national identity that is less vulnerable to Russia's influence and resisting what many see as Putin's imperialist ambition [Music] there is a an important element of pushing back the Soviet past and creating a genuine mulgogan identity and in that uh being part of the EU together with Romania um is sort of coming back to the European family um after this Soviet history the battle for influence is also a battle for hearts and Minds one in which the EU promotes its Democratic Values supporters of EU membership in modofa and Georgia believe in the promise of a better future and are demanding to move away from post-soviet institutions and root out corruption given that corruption has been one of the important leverages for Russia to gain influence on government and economy in and business in more or less all post-soviet countries fighting corruption also means reducing the possibilities for Russia to influence smuggling politics in business that's not to say that EU membership is guaranteed tackling corruption is just one of the many challenges former Soviet states must overcome before being allowed to join the blog Georgie failed is candidacy beat in 2022 but public support is Sky High surface show over 80 percent of the population say that they want to join the EU and while Georgie's government has been accused of closing up with the Kremlin the people have made their voices hurt Mass protests early this year forced the government to drop a Russian style law that critics said will be used to stifle descent Russia doesn't have anything to offer to Young Georgians especially because it's not a democracy it's not a it's not a economic Hub or technological Hub or something to offer to the neighbors those neighbors are realizing that they no longer need to rely on Russia economically and as Moscow weaponizes its energy Supply in the face of Western sanctions is pushing them to find new partners for prosperity and stability in 2022 58 of moldova's exports went to the EU while Russia was only fourth on the list and when Russia cut off gas to Moldova last winter to put pressure on the pro-western government kisi now started to look for Alternatives and began to reverse its almost total Reliance on Russia for energy supplies in December last year modofa received guests from Romania for the first time [Music] Russia's longtime loyal Ally in Central Asia is also finding alternatives for its economic path Russia and Putin's strategic miscalculation in Ukraine has entirely changed that balance to the position now where Kazakhstan in many ways has more in elements of Leverage over Russia than it ever did before crude oil accounts for over 50 of kazakhstan's exports for decades the landlocked country relied on the Caspian pipeline Consortium the CPC which brings oil through Russian territory to the Black Sea for export but the Kremlin repeatedly disrupts the operation of the pipeline last year as part of the sanctions tit-for-tets with the West that has pushed the Kazakh government to speed up in diversifying its oil export routes in 2022 Kazakhstan increased its oil export fire routes by passing Russia including via the Caspian Sea to azerbaijan's Baku and via the Kazakhstan China pipeline Network to China and while Russia remains kazakhstan's biggest trading partner after the EU China is rapidly catching up that's sort of a really good example of uh some of the Strategic forces at play for other parties in the region and that Moscow you know may no longer be able to dictate terms there Russia's decreasing economic power has even Kazakhstan some leverage to defy Moscow one of them was around tariff pricing with Russia asking for decreased tariffs for Kazakh rail Transit and the Kazakh saying you know sorry no can do so Astana and Moscow maintain cordial diplomatic relations this economic shift can be read as a sign that part of the Soviet Legacy is slowly waning in the region all of the post-soviet countries have been trying to diversify their International Partnerships and to get more attention from other stakeholders in China be turkey with the gulf countries and of course the EU the Us and other other Western countries while much hangs on the outcome of the war in Ukraine there are indications that some of the former Soviet States see themselves in a position to choose and their choice may be to start working a different path away from their one-time master

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Length: 10min 44sec (644 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 23 2023