Russia doing 'terribly badly' in Ukraine as war economy causes problems for the Kremlin | Robert Fox

Russia is showing great Ingenuity with missile and electronic warfare technology it's doing terribly badly for what it's got on the ground and this is this is where you're right long term it cannot go on at this level consuming so much of it it its economy I think it's got about 18 months but it looks as if to me that KF the regime the war effort of Ukraine could crack now though NATO leaders are gathering in Washington for uh their Summit it's the 75th anniversary of the organization and of course it's taking place amid El electoral chaos in France as we've just been discussing a new British Administration as we all know and uh real questions about what's going to happen in the US presidential race the NATO military Alliance is expected to pledge a further 40 billion euros to Ukraine as Russia Today has ex escalated its attacks on the country dozens of people were killed in Ukraine today as Russian missiles hit a children's hospital and a medical facility in keev so uh was that a deliberate attack time to coincide with the summit joining me now is Robert Fox the defense editor of the evening standard I mean Robert I'm quite sure President Putin will be paying close attention to the NATO Summit or or am I wrong oh yes he does he he he he loves this he loves the rhetoric he likes mixing it with with the leadership because he sees himself as the Supreme Russian world leader and that's what the scheme's about and I think that's a thing that's going to be very difficult for NATO because as you rightly sketched the way the political climate is changing in Europe as well as the possibility now of very strong possibility of trump returning to power does that mean to say that we can draw a line under Ukraine they've talked about peace why don't we give him what he wants although it's not quite clear what he wants but I think think of the new membership of NATO and they're saying well even if you give him what he appears to be requiring which is a very tall order he won't stop with with with Ukraine but what this also will be dominated by is the fact that NATO isn't just about Europe anymore you've got another war going on you have got real trouble blowing up in the Pacific where NATO's powwers and their capabilities will have a real play and that's why the this is Vis what well we've got a dead a very strange deadline I'm sure people have mentioned it to you before of 2027 2027 that the Hawks say that's when you've got to watch out because it looks as if Gia is going to make his first run at Taiwan then why it's slightly tenuous it's because there's in a document that he claims that he wants China to be a dominant if not the dominant and Global military power at least a match or capable of overmatching America in 2027 so uh that that's where we're going so you've got two spiral crises two systems of Alliance alliances which are in competition with each other Russia China on the one hand America NATO Europe on the other and so what can we expect from this Summit on either of those the first message is that they will start where it begin at the beginning dlan Thomas with say and the beginning is is Europe which is what NATO was conceived for and I think even the Brits are going to get a bit of a ticking off and saying that you're you've got to do more you've got to do more yes we know about the rhetoric and you can talk about the sums you the percentages of GDP but physically you have got to have greater capability and if anything points up the need for that it's the attacks today on Kev because too many of the missiles and drones but particularly the missiles got through so that would mean giving air defenses would it air defenses but also there is sorry to be a bit Grand they've got to reconceive the air battle which I think they've been lazy about for obvious political reasons slow to put the f-16s in if you're really going to stop this and but it's not just to concile the the the Hypersonic missiles which really got working today more successful I think than ever it's these uh standoff launched quite simple Glide bombs from bombers which can stand way back over Russian territory and this is where we come back to Biden again that he doesn't want American weapons over much to be used to attack Russian facilities in Russia I think it's fair to say you've always been fairly pessimistic about Ukraine and the defense of Ukraine there are those on the other side of the argument who are saying that actually Russia can't support this level of contri of attrition where do you think that the the conflict is at the moment I think it's we're right in the middle I think we the use of the konzal this Hypersonic missile as well as the escandar they've got two four or five weapon systems that are really working Russia is showing great Ingenuity with missile and electronic warfare technology it's doing terribly badly for what it's got on the ground and this is this is where you're right long term it cannot go on at this level consuming so much of it it its economy I think it's got about 18 months but it looks as if to me that KF the regime the war effort of Ukraine could crack I don't say it any minute but it could be weeks weeks away that it things are very very difficult indeed for them and they need an awful lot more the ammunition was held up uh they have their own Manpower problem and this is why it's interesting isn't it that that uh David Lamy that Mr Lamy went off to uh speak to the polls because the polls are giving really hoisting the warning signs and saying there is trouble and this thing could go down very quickly now I was talking yesterday to the former Swedish prime minister car built here on times radio and he was saying that he thought the Biden situation and people just looking at President Biden thinking is he up to it is going to become the dominant thing at this summer for the other leaders do you think so I think it's very much in the background I wonder if they're too polite to bring it up to the foreground certainly I I don't I can't see K stama doing it but he ought to because the it's funny you talking about macr who is I would say in in in global uh being the leader of European Defense he is fatally damaged Schultz is not in good shape so you're really going to say that the two median power leaders are going to be Kia starm and Georgia Maloney which could have which is the way it could appear at the at this NATO Summit and they must be very worried about what's going in the in the um in in the US leadership and I think it will go through this conference like the lettering through Brighton Rock and do you think anyone you say you don't think they'll have the courage to say to him quietly Joe you've done a good job but time to hang up your boots one person we haven't talked about is is Mark Rutter the new Secretary General he new but there's quite a lot he's he's not an old old man he's a very vigorous man he very very experienced and quite an old Fox I think he will be he blim me he will be saying to himself I've taken over the the the I'm the Helmsman on this Alliance and the the leader the Paramount leader is the US I'm caught between Biden and and Trump now how am I going to work this out and Mark Rutter is a great worker out he's much less obvious in his tactics than stoltenberg and and the Scandinavians I think he's going to be a very critical figure and starma has got to make his number w w with Mark R otherwise I think that if they're all going to operate at a distance it's going to be very very difficult indeed because a lot of the governments in the in the NATO alliance you know some of the Scandinavians they're not that strong either do you see any changes in the British defense posture and British role in NATO with the change of government with G St becoming prime minister yes I think uh I think it's a real decision Point um we've been talking about it at the re Royal United Services Institute this morning I think what you've got with starma and John Healey is a new sense of real realism and we've got to get real there's a hell of a lot that the previous administration has talked about British military capability which is just nonsense they're a good bits but they don't hang together at the moment and above all the Army doesn't work work and that's what they they they've done very good things in terms of advice a lot more than we've declared in Ukraine but as a working fighting force medium level that can give real leadership in in in NATO they're not there yet and that is one thing that will be required of them very practically in Washington in the next two days

Channel: Times Radio

Views: 178,425

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Id: XN0iM9bToQ4

Length: 9min 23sec (563 seconds)

Published: Mon Jul 08 2024