Raoul Pal & E. Mostaque: A Complete SHIFT in Society!

as you know I have a thesis about the exponential age that we're about to go through the fastest pace of Technology the world has ever seen that's what this whole series is about this next interview with an old friend of mine is probably one of the most important single interviews you will watch I can't stress enough how important the concepts and what is happening and the speed of which artificial intelligence is going to change Humanity it is something that we all need to pay attention to understand and use in our favor because it's happening and it's happening at a scale of which you cannot comprehend foreign you were known in the past in various guises on real Vision because this is not your first rodeo you were the frontier guy and we're going to talk about a new frontier today and then also in the pandemic you helped guide us through some of that too give people a bit about your background because it's a fascinating background and it's an interesting journey to where you are today yeah um it has been a few different skins now I was a hedge fund manager that started my career running Global macro um then switched to Emerging Markets Frontier markets and Tech at one point I was one of the larger video game investors out there which is also quite fun took a bit of a break when my son was diagnosed with autism and I used artificial intelligence to repurpose drugs uh to making it better one advising some top hedge fund managers and governments on various things including counter-extremism and you know fun things like that went back to being a hedge fund manager did okay and then um yeah had a look at the world and you know what we do as fund managers is we look for Arbitrage opportunities and we look for where things are building up and breaking down and it struck me that a lot of stuff was breaking down and I decided like let's try and make it better effectively uh by combining some of these systems and some of these Arbitrage opportunities so one of the big things was education another big thing was uh leading the United Nations AI initiative against covert 19. I think the last time I was in the real Vision was February the 6th 2020 and we had a nice chat about how the world was going to change dramatically and uh it did and then I was like oh crap I have to do something about it so we made all the covered research from the world free uh and pushed that and then I was lead architect of um kayak which was the UNESCO world back who backed initiatives to use artificial intelligence to take all that knowledge and compress it down to reports for policy makers so that we can be a bit more coordinated similar to how we take all that information fund management compress it down and try to figure out those key drivers it was a mixed success but I think it did some difference and now from that uh something a bit bigger which is AI for everything basically so AI is clearly now become your thing right this is your focus yeah so before we get into what you're doing now what the hell gave a hedge fund manager the thought process that hey I Can Help The Who and everybody else with artificial intelligence well that's because to be a hedge fund manager you have to be a bit of an egomaniac right you have to believe that you're right and everyone else is kind of wrong look I mean all of what we do is information classification and that's the nature of artificial intelligence so the information comes in and then Claus Shannon style information Theory information is only valuable isn't much to change the state so you're always looking for something on that graph or that new thing that will cause you to change from a buyer to a cell or an increase or decrease in your positioning right I kind of realized over the years that like my background was mathematics computer science originally and so quite quantitative quite analytical that the next wave of AI was something a bit different that would enable us to do something a bit different because we moved from this big data age you know we had massive amounts of information and extrapolated it and targeted to kind of sell Rawls and suntan or whatever you know to something a bit different a bit more jealous of my time I'm jealous of your turn I'm in London you're a Cayman Islands I'm telling pasty completely uh I have to try and find out let's see so you moved from that area was about extrapolation in the individual to something new in 2017 which was a big model age AI went from being able to just do extrapolation to being able to pay attention in fact there was a seminal paper called attention is all you need about how to build an AI that paid attention to the most important parts of a sentence the most important parts of an image to do principle-based analysis which is insane if you think about it but this is actually what we do right we have this service what do you mean by principle-based analysis sorry so rather than doing extrapolation so rather than doing momentum beta AI became able to do alpha it became able to basically come up with principles that allowed it to understand the hidden layers of meaning with things so you can go that into a bit more detail but this is how the human brain works right we have two parts of our brain the future is like the past and that's a tiger over there in that bush right it's the type one type two kind of thinking so AI was always one of the extrapolation and now we have a new type of AI that mimics the human brain by figuring out principles from highly structured data which is kind of what we did every single day is the finance guys right but at a completely different scale I don't think even now people have appreciated how big a change that's going to be to just about everything I think we're starting to figure that out now so before we get into the guts of this let's go on a bit of the Journey of AI because you've talked about where it was and then we started to see stuff like deepmind and then gpt3 open AI all of this so if you can just frame it for people because a lot of this is going to be new for people and I think it's incredibly important people understand what's happening the speed at which is happening where the hell are this is going yeah so if you look at deepmind um they are famous for many things you know diamonds has done a fantastic job um one of the things they did is thinking back you had Gary casparov being beaten by deeply so you know us as older fellows you remember that not like the young with the Snappers who've never seen the bear Market in their lives uh you know sanitation's happening what deep blue did was it did a analysis of every single game in the past and then extrapolates it and then it brute forced it so Gary could only stick X moves in the future it could think X plus two X plus three and that's how he got beaten by Brute Force now the Chinese game of Go Chinese checkers eventually people thought you'd never be able to brute force it because there's too many things that you can do there's too many moves on that board right um and so they're like ah that'll never be beaten by a computer because you need to build a computer that's the biggest computer ever at times a million what deepmind did is that basically they came up with a self-supilized learning algorithm that learned how to dream that's probably the best way to kind of put it about how one would play go in a principled way so it didn't even have all the past games in its memory it just played against itself and tried to figure out how to do this they made a whole base of these agents with reinforcement learning that you gave an Atari with no instructions that learned how to play Breakout and then start right and all sorts without any instructions so people need to understand that it figured it out you put it the computer in front of something it just figures out and it gets better and better so when you see it playing breakout it's suddenly doing this crazy moves like that and So Lisa doll was like I think a seventh down and uh go so he was a Magnus Carlson or kind of go effectively and it wasn't a current minus class some type of situation it's very difficult to cheat and go because you didn't have reviews we're not talking about anal probes in this one we're talking about yeah conversation's going funny ways right so what happened is that uh the next highest person was like a fourth down or something so he's like Federer Carlson rolled into one that much better so never beat him he won one game the computer won seven and there was like holy crap what is that because computer learned to play in a completely different way and it was like this is playing with an alien yeah because it didn't learn past games it as you said it learns in an entirely New Way literally it played against itself it dreamed so then it plays against itself into memory and then it does that again and again and again and So within just a few weeks it outperformed him and then these models got better and better and smaller and smaller we haven't seen the generalization of the models yet but they're coming these agents that can basically optimize when you don't even tell it the rules which is kind of insane then on the other hand you had what was known as Foundation models which is where this attention-based architecture came in so in the attention thing they were seeing when the game's like I should actually have a final thing about this and you can see this in the alphago documentary that's on YouTube if you want to see more details is that as a result of this did Lisa doll go and say I'm hanging up my go pieces and I'm gonna pack them away no he started playing against it and now he's even better as a player and the entire go competitive scene has improved because now they're figuring out brand new ways and kind of gambits and things they've never seen before which I think is really interesting then you had kind of this other kind of big area which was kind of someone's deep learning area we have these big corpuses and you know actually you can do extrapolations and stuff but you don't understand meaning and so this is where these attention-based architectures came in it's actually quite interesting so when I was taking a break from fund management to work with my son um autism is a very interesting condition no cure nothing to be done so of course you know you go and quit being a hedge fund manager and build a team and try to do it because you get Maniacs right my wife is a applied Behavioral Analyst who just treats kids with kids with autism so I live that life exactly so applied behavioral analysis uses variable rewards and a lot of the stuff you use in video games to rebuild words so if you have a stroke or you have autism you haven't basically set a can right so the word can can mean I can it can mean that can it can mean the can can lots of different things but because there's so much noise in the brain which is why you see a lot of kids and adults with not being able to handle large amounts of information I don't have Asperger's myself and ADHD they usually balance out sometimes not quite um it's very difficult to pay attention and we all feel that like you know when your leg is tapping there's just too much going on that's the Fugue State because there's two transmitters in the brain Gaba which calms you down and glutamate which excites you so when you pop a Valium your Gaba levels go up and imagine if your brain was always excited for one reason or another you wouldn't be able to concentrate and build those connections to the word care you know that hidden layer of meaning for what can is um so you know that's why I repurposed drugs to adjust those levels there's like 16 different things we identify that could potentially cause it but because medicine treats everyone the same it meant that one drug that made 34 of kids better made 28 of kids worse so there's no cure and there's no treatment so that's a different bigger story and something again this AI can help with and why is that relevant it's because what this AI does now is exactly the same it uses giant honking supercomputers so that if you take a terabyte of text it learns what the most important words of the sentence are and that's what gpt3 was from open AI it took a thousand gigabytes of text and it learned how to write in any style and any extension so it paid the most important part of any sentence so you give it a sentence like Legolas and Gimli that's all you give it and it'll write an entire scene in the style of Tolkien that's never been seen before you know you give it a sentence and you say make it happier it understands what happier is and this is what's called a latent space of meaning because it takes uh that took uh one terabyte of information so a thousand gigabytes and gpt3 is about 40 gigabytes in size but it can recreate any style of writing and understanding and style of writing which is I mean again a bit crazy I mean it's it's staggering we'll come into the societal impacts and what this all means in a bit but just want to get through the technology it is astonishing when you see gpt3 because basically it writes authentic pieces that are not stolen from other things much like the deep um Deep Mind did with go it wasn't stealing from Old games it learned how to do it is that right Atlanta principles Atlanta stars that learned What's called the latest space the hidden layers of meanings between different types of words So like um we just released the most advanced image version of that stable diffusion stable diffusion took a hundred thousand gigabytes so 100 terabytes of images and we made a two gigabyte file that can do any style in any image of any type so this is like Delhi right what's the dally on steroids hi I'm ralphal the CEO and co-founder of realvision the financial world is a complicated world right now it's a really complicated macro picture and there's a lot of risks real vision and our YouTube channel help you navigate those risks so subscribe now to the channel and never miss an update there is simply too much going on so subscribe now thank you so so explain dally and then we'll come into what you're doing because you know again I just want to get people up the knowledge graph because dally was the next big one that I stopped in my track someone holy this is amazing yeah so so GPT 3 came out in 2020 and then we released the open source version of that GPT near which I'll come back to last year there was a breakthrough in image generation so you can generate text and everyone's like image is too difficult right because the picture creates a thousand words like it's really should be a thousand times more complex it turns out it wasn't so you had something called clip which basically you took any image and it'd be able to classify it so it'd be able to say that's a Raul and that's a red sofa and all these things understand loads of Concepts because they compress that down then you had a generative model that took words to images so you had two models a word to image model and image to word model and at the start of last year we figured out how to bounce them off each other so to generate an image and then check if that image was the same as the prompt and it go back and forth back and forth back and forth and after 10 minutes you generate a simul chrome of an image from the word input so words go in images come out right holy crap it looks a bit mushy but that's insane it can generate an image of anything but it isn't high quality then what happened is that open Ai and US accelerated that whole Space because we thought it was freaking cool and put lots of research into it and see what's the point now whereby you can put in Robert De Niro's Gandalf and one second later you get an image output so the first output of that was uh the mainstream was dally from open AI that was in April of this year so you can say a cyberco goth girl overlooking near Tokyo and boom eight seconds later it's generated and this is a totally unique Creative Image that did not exist in the world before right it did not exist in the world before all the data that went into that so it was about 600 million images it can't recreate any of those images instead it's learned the principles of that so again it's the principle-based analysis which is insane right um because it's like again it's the heuristic stuff that we do all the time and if you combine different concepts so you can say a van Gogh by Banksy and it will do a van Gogh by Banksy or kind of do screen and now there's more and more technologies that have emerged from that so open AI kind of announced the closed beta of that and then my company stability AI created a version with 30 times faster and more powerful so tell me about stability AI when did it start who's involved what are you guys doing yeah so started in 2020 um metallic sign in 2019 with the education work but I can talk about that later but 2020 is when it was formed officially to do the covert work so it's lead the UN code initiative launched at Stanford Etc so you found it I founded it yeah because someone needs to build something to do AI as a public good so I didn't exactly know what the business model was or anything like that then I just thought someone needs to build this stuff because people are dying effectively and then we have the other projects actually I'll mention it so my co-founder and I so Joe's runs the charitable on we have took the global X prize for learning so that was a 15 million dollar prize funded by Elon Musk and Tony Robbins for the first app that could teach literacy and numeracy in 18 months without internet and we've been deploying in refugee camps and low-income areas around the world to the point where now we're teaching kids literacy and numeracy in 13 months and one hour a day in a refugee camp in Malawi and we just got the remit to educate every child in Malawi 3.9 million kids with a completely open book of Hardware software deployment and curriculum so we're going to invite the world to say let's build an open source education system where the AI teaches the kids and the kids teach the AI that's the type of stuff that we wanted to do because so much of the world's issues are coordination problems so I figured out how to bring in the multilaterals the locals and others like the sun called mechanism design I said let's do education let's do Healthcare but then as we were doing this and we talked to a lot of the big private companies they promised a lot and they didn't deliver and it's got me thinking about the future so some of the people on this call be familiar with um the Chinese social credit score system and the use of AI in China to identify ugiers and others and everyone's got a rating you hang out with someone with two lower rating your ratings starts to go down eight million people in China can't do this planes on trains it's behavioral economics right done by AI it's gamified life life has become a video game that's right yeah and AI is the actual assistant on top but now you think about it the entire web 2 as it might was basically Facebook and Google it was AI Big Data models and now you've moved to the big model era where to build these models you need to have the best data amazingly smart people and freaking super computers quite freaking super commuters I mean like stupid computers that are multiple times faster than NASA's with the computers because that's what compresses this data down into knowledge so information for knowledge almost because knowledge is when you extract the principles from information right and then wisdoms when you apply it to state so we have this sudden knowledge extraction system so I looked at that and I was like the only people that can build this are Nvidia meta Google deepmind Microsoft open AI and how are they aligned what does it look like because this is super powerful technology they can be used to Target Us ads better than anything else or it can be used to change online because it's convincing you see gpt3 writing you can't tell it's not a human right you look at the audio versions you can't listen and say it's not human like my sister-in-law Xena just sold her company to Spotify semantic fully emotionally real AI voices using this technology so she did a technology for all the blizzard and everything I've just seen somebody has now got AI for creating podcasts so you can have J Joe Rogan interviewing Steve Jobs neither of these exists and the interview never existed but the AI does it and it sounds just like them right and that's the thing it's got that human level So like um semantic also did Val Kilmer's voice for his documentary and Top Gun because he lost it completely and it's completely emotionally real so it's getting to that period of emotional realness and human realness which means then you think about the future and you're like this is one of the most powerful Technologies ever because it's approaching Humanity not in a general license where the AI can do everything in Skynet but as a tool for targeting and convincing and manipulation so what happens if only big tech companies do this because they went from being open to being private even open AI that got a billion dollars from musk and others and then a billion from Microsoft stopped releasing their code because then it was too dangerous for people to have this you know so they turned closed and then they stop sharing and you're like is this the most powerful thing if you fast forward five ten years does it make sense that a private company will have a monopoly or saves a private company Monopoly on this then it will reflect basically Palo Alto norms and it'll mean those companies are more powerful than any government in Earth and I was like that's wrong I was like there needs to be an alternative that is open you know kind of AI for the People by the people who call it um because not only is that morally right because it's unethical to keep powerful technology that can make people's lives better from the people it could benefit from it the most but it's actually a better model because you have open Innovation this is why Linux became the servers of choice and the most secure servers Windows has all these holes in Linux holes get patched instantly right this is where you've got databases kind of taking over because nothing can beat human creativity when that happened I look at web 3 and crypto and I'm like it nearly got there and then it kind of Got Hijacked because it was part of the puzzle but it wasn't the whole puzzle because when I went to talk to a lot of web 3 people I'm like where's the AI and web free they were like well we'll get to it but I was like the whole of web 2 was AI how are you gonna do web3 without Ai and when they give examples like a left ear and other things um you know with the talking nfts the technology they used was our technology that we released that usgpt near um which I thought was quite interesting so then I realized it's actually a bigger thing here and a bigger reason to do this but how do you compete with open Ai and deepminds and Microsoft and Google with their billions of dollars of budget uh which was an interesting one like how do you do it right do you go and raise two billion dollars no go do it another way so what did you do this is fine it's fascinating so I built community so in 2020 a lot of people were just like you know coveted and uh in quarantine so we built up a Luther AI which the base principle was let's create an open source version of gpt3 you know it's like did you create it or did you click did you create it or clone gpt3 and then allowed to build on top how how do you start this oh so so like there were five initial creators and then I came like a month after along with some of the second wave and said let's accelerate this up so they looked at the model so the data wasn't open so we had to create our own data set and so we had to crawl the internet and create a terabyte of data the compute wasn't available so we got a grant from Google uh Who provided the compute initially and then the expertise it was all like PhD students or self-taught programmers and others were like how would this work because they released a academic paper but they didn't give any code so we built the code from scratch and then created a model that was 75 as good but it was available so the models from a Luther AI which uh kind of stability runs now basically via the top level people um but we're gonna spin it off into its own independent charity for a number of reasons um they've been downloaded 25 million times now by Developers so anytime you see a chat bot or something like that that's getting to human levels it's probably going to be that I was just released open source of the world it's 80 as good as gpt3 but it doesn't matter because you can customize it and you can extend it and you can run on your own Hardware so it's a 20 billion parameter model versus 175 billion parameter models eight times smaller but you know it's just like the big steel mills and the little ones if you look at the kind of playing Christensen thing more can out compete big um and then I realized that there's a talent Arbitrage here whereby there's a lot of people that want to build open source but there's no supercompute in Academia so when I said super computers needed for this I meant it like um the amount of super compute the amount of breakthroughs in this foundational model research 20 years ago 100 coming from Academia 10 years ago 75 came from Academia last year zero percent came from Academia because there was this massive ramp up in compute capabilities but Academia can access it only private companies could so if you wanted to have a breakthrough or work in Cutting Edge research you had three options do a startup startup stuck so let's put that to the side especially for academics right number two you go and work for big Tech and then you get 59 page ndas and you might do cool stuff like we've seen text a video from the Google team that'll never be released by Google because of ethical fears which we can discuss and the final option is that you know you go and work for some of these independent Labs like open Ai and others that were meant to be independent and then became less independent over time otherwise you stay in Academia like I would like to do these but I can't so I saw that the core um choke point was compute a community was forming for talent and then we need to be highly structured about data so what I did was I sent how big a supercomputer can I build if I put all my money into it and I'd become very persuasive and then I built the 10th fastest public supercomputer in the world in uh four months and it turns out you can build a very large super computer so Ezra one which is our super computer which all my money went into is about eight times faster than the fastest supercomputer in the UK and about seven times faster than all of NASA's super computers put together and that's the level that you need to basically create these models it's like the entry level um that need for compute keeps going up can you use distributor computing power or is it still not fast enough so you can do it once you've done the initial model so what happens is that you take in this case we took a hundred thousand gigabytes of data so we made the biggest image data set in the world previously the largest was 100 million then we made 400 million then we made 5.6 billion at 250 terabyte image label pair data set then we took two billion of that which is the high quality images and then we crunch them back and forth on this so what happens is after you crunch them back and forth then you've got a file that can be adapted and trained it's like basically it's gone through Primary School of learning and then you can teach at more advanced concepts so like some people are taking the training on Japanese Concepts some people are taking it and training a anime cat girl waifus or whatever you know you can add that specialization once it's achieved kind of the high school level so there's a big compute and a little computer does the network then learn from all of these people working on the network itself so I know you've got because you're distributed and you've got lots of people doing different things does that increase the knowledge base or not it increases the large base of the community but we have to understand this model this is not a distributed model where it's like lots of little brain cells out there it's a two gigabyte file that can recreate and create any image in any style so you took a hundred thousand gigabytes of moment and created two so sometimes I think I'm on that Silicon Valley show you know H uh from HBO and we're Pied Piper and I think crap am I early backman or Ross Hanuman you know like what is my role it's one of those kind of guys right um it's the most advanced technology the world's ever seen for compression because the entirety of humanity is basically about communication and compression right the compression machines that's all we do so people are listening to this podcast now and they're literally listening to yours and mine common context and the compression of all the knowledge that we've had over the years and they're learning something new right now it's what we do and hopefully it's valuable because they'll see that holy crap this new technology wave is coming but if you can do it to images you can do it to anything so actually how we have the Breakthrough is we took a language model and image model and we've used them together and somehow it learned the different concepts then what we're seeing is that when you have different models of different types so someone takes a change in their byte file you take it and you put it on all your images in and I take it and I put all my images in we can actually fuse them together and create another two gigabyte file that knows both of them without going up in size very much that's a bit insane in fact open AI did this with a model called gato recently so what happened is that there were hundreds of different models they built that were quite big that were like Robotics and playing chess and all these other things they said what happens if we combine them all together and see what happens these latest faces the hidden meanings of understanding just like the neurons in our brain it created a 1.6 billion parameter file that can open doors and play chess and play Starcraft and all sorts of other things and they were like what and this is a thing like you've got a breakthrough in intelligence but then you've broken through to the point where this is the important part stable diffusion is the first model that's small enough fast enough and cheap enough to go anywhere so you can run it on your MacBook M1 you can make Robert De Niro buy Bank e and Renoir in Guadalajara in a snowstorm without internet access and that two gigabyte file will reproduce that fatally each time yes it is a two gigabyte file that has compressed the knowledge of the internet in images I can't quite get my head around this so where do you think what you're working on goes what is the image thing where is this going towards because right now it's kind of interesting yes we're gonna see creative Industries marketing others use this quite quickly and effectively but where is this in your head where's your mental model what you're actually working on here because you're not working on creating nice images you're working on something bigger what is that it's the intelligent internet intelligence is about to be pushed out to the edge so every person country country and culture has their own models that are constantly updated so you'll have your own model of all your knowledge across modalities and you can run it on your local hardware without being access to the internet the internet right now is centralized and all is running on Google service and guiding you that gets pushed out to the edge because finally you have this compression technology and you know it's interesting because there's a bunch of structural things here so apple is the most interesting thing with regards to this apple will be the biggest AI company in the world in two years why I'm listening to this on a MacBook M1 right now 16.8 percent of the chipset is a neural engine that's not used that is designed for exactly this type of model and it's proliferating right everyone's moving to M1 MacBooks everyone's moving to a16 bionics that also have neural engines and they're not used are Apple stupid no they have an entire teams building these types of models for their augmented reality and Beyond so you're going to move from series one to series five the series a bit crap it won't be said and so as that technology proliferates and then people take what we're building and you create a hundred thousand a million new developers in this space the possibilities are endless you've seen hundreds of things built on stable diffusion but like I said I don't just want images I want audio I want video I want to have text I want knowledge I want my databases combined with it so my type 1 and type two brains and then you have an AI that either manipulates you or it works for you and my thing is it's open infrastructure that should work for every individual and this is also why I've got a very different approach to know so most prequels approach would be B2B go to big companies and sell them API access instead I'm forward deploying Engineers into the biggest brands in the world getting them to invest in my next round of financing and I'm also doing that for countries I'm going to India and saying what's the probability this technology would be used by everyone in India in 10 to 20 years 100 or 95 percent so I'm saying I'll build it for you next year I'm getting all the biggest Indian conglomerates and others together and taking the smartest Engineers out of Silicon Valley back to India like one of my fun ones is I have a JB with Eros which is the Netflix of India so 200 million daily active users all the Bollywood content I have an exclusive on it and the revenue share so what's the probability that Bollywood content will be interactive through these models of course it will be so I'm locking down it's already working on interactive content actually yeah but not like this they don't have this expertise because right now you know how many people can build these models 40. in five years how many people be able to build these models four million so there's some really interesting arbitrages in the market right now and my take is that if I push hard enough and I out-compete the big guys which I am like my team's 100 now um you know and I'm out competing these big guys by building markets products markets uh products to the market quicker then I forced everyone to go open source because it's no longer a differentiating factor and then that changes it from a closed pan Opticon for our kids you know and ourselves to something different I'm not sure what it is but I think it's more beneficial okay so let's talk about what it could be it's clearly terrifying because either open source or in private hands if it's open source it's like a virus it'll go where it goes and people will use it how they use it and there's no stopping it okay fine how does society deal with the fact that we don't know who is who is a human and who is not and how we're being manipulated and who know I wrote a thread on this the other day about digital ID being one of these key things but it's this whole element of deep fake of what what is real in this world how do we deal with this because it's going to shatter Society it will adjust Society definitely um so part of my reason for releasing the model uh you know during the covert thing I just had a lot of conversations about third immunity right which was bad for that I believe it's good for this releasing this model out there it's going to be everywhere in a year this is the this is a one to one billion person moment right right now a few million people it's exponential this is exponential without question that question but this is a really interesting thing right now very few people know that you can create anything in a second for one cent and less than a sentencing right soon everyone will know about it because it'll be in all your favorite apps so we're integrated into canva right now we're interested into Photoshop you can see big announcements coming out because we're partnering with everyone with interactive content what does that mean it means people suddenly start thinking about this thing what is real well it's not real and I said identity is key so the other part of apple and that's bullish on Apple is the fact that they've got the identity architecture down and that allows them to have verified content creation so one of the things we have with Adobe and others is we've been pushing uh content Authority basically which is a small metadata pile that attaches to every piece of content and it's hash and if either of them are edited it changes and it shows that it's not true it's not a blockchain thing but it allows you to verify content in a positive way like it why is it nothing it's long watching doesn't need to be on blockchain that's why well because the centralization of of the knowledge right because like Google owns all of the knowledge blockchain is the only way of not having one Central Power earning the knowledge it's uh it is a way of having my own one Central Power own the knowledge and you can combine this with a blockchain but you can think of it as super advanced metadata yeah so you know when you have metadata in a file like exif when you edit that the file stays constant that this they're both immutable effectively so you can tell if one of the other has been tampered so if it says that it's from Raul it's from Raul effectively but there's no blockchain lookup for that you can make it stronger with a blockchain but you know it's just a standard that's open source that we're pushing effectively so it's kind of a positive one it's not a negative one obviously there's ways around that and things like that but it'll get people thinking about these things how does identity work in a new age because so much of what we do is identity right most of finances basically securitization which is identity um most of kind of the whole blockchain is identity it's all about identity Exchange so the thing is how can we build better systems for identity because that's the final part information this massive information and also stable diffusion as we released it was a snapshot of the Internet it's biased it's racist it's everything if you enter the prompts in wrong part of that is like showing some of the images of the racial bias of the algorithms so my thing was like if it's just one company that controls it like what open AI did with Dali so dally is a control system you don't access the code images or anything to make it less racist whenever a gender-neutral word is put like sumo wrestler they would randomly add a gender and a race so you type in sumo wrestler and you got Indian female sumo wrestler tiny little Indian lady sumo wrestling and stuff like that technically yeah I mean that is one way but instead my preference is for every single company country and culture to have their own models and be able to create their own and then like I said then it becomes acknowledged what it looks like but then you can set standards you can be the standard that people build around and you can incorporate authentication in that standard because the other way that I talk about these things it's a generative search engine because now they have stable diffusion and in six months it will be perfect photorealistic 12 months maximum do you need Google image search anymore because what's your job to be done when you do Google image search is to have a picture of a certain type now a little freaking two gigabyte file on your local computer or something that you pay a fraction of a penny for online can create any image you can imagine and you can edit it with your words basically what is that if not a search engine of a type it searches for a concept it turns it into an image it's a creative search engine it creates by as you say you just put in a word or a vocal command and say I want this and it creates but then but then you can also say I want a presentation about cicada migrations affecting sesame seed prices I watch too much Silicon Valley here uh and in a couple of years it will create a beautiful presentation for you and then you can say I'd like to be happier or sadder or I want to be more impactful and it will adjust the presentation dynamically for you no more PowerPoint but it's going to do video as well right we don't need to do this I could just say hey have a conversation between Rel and emad about Ai and here's the narrative Arc and it'll just do it pretty much yeah yep just like it does in Steve Jobs but in 3D video so like uh I don't know if I should be talking about this but I'm going to talk about it anyway what I still want to get in trouble um there are two well I'll I heard you there are two boxing Legends families who are giving us all of the motion captured data and media from their lives and we're building up an analysis of how that works so that we can basically say who won between X and Y in a fight in their Prime run on the supercomputer where nobody knows the outcome in full when they never fall with each other because they were of different Generations yes so you can pick two you can pick two different people I can't say who they are but you know those types of things that you've always postulated we can do that now and obviously this is going to completely change music as well right yeah so we've released our music models already uh dance diffusion where we did a slightly different thing we want to take a snapshot on the internet we made it so everyone can create take their back catalog incorporate it into a kindergarten level of knowledge we decided not to go to Primary School for the model and then you can query that to create your own style in anything so we call it dance diffusion and we're teaming up with the top EDM DJs and others in the world so that every musician will have their own models that can generate music and their Style and then if they give permission we're going to match them all together and you've got a generative Spotify effectively which then basically as people prompt it there's an attribution system where it plays them and that will just be like 100 gigabytes as a file that'll capture the music of the world which again is insane this compression thing you know it's actually like you know you read so much right Raul and then you write your notes and then you write your investment pieces investment pieces of compression of knowledge a vaccine schedule is a compression of knowledge we finally figured out how to make computers compress information into knowledge I I mean this is I knew this was going to be an interesting conversation and I've been looking at this for a while but Franklin staggered at how fast this is moving and what you're doing I mean it is I mean this is truly exponential as you say within two or three years this is multiple billion people and the complete shift on a Humanity level of how information is processed and delivered and that is society so basically it's a shift in society and so my thing was to go into emerging markets and others and give us technology to them otherwise they'll be left behind because you know like dally two you can't use if you're in Ukrainian and you can't use it for anything Ukrainian related and there's no appealing that or anything like that you know but it means ukrainians are left behind whereas everyone else can become digitally and augmented creatives that can generate an image in eight seconds so this is also why it's stability we do everything we do code models image models language models Audio models video models protein folding models and others and so you're going to see leaps across all these areas in parallel I I've argued for a very long time in fact I was writing articles in GMI about this 10 years ago that AI plus Big Data equals medical breakthroughs because what the AI can do with that data is something that humans can't do in the standard scientific method of hypothesis testing it's just too slow and too cumbersome you can get it to generate null hypotheses which humans don't like to do you know you can use this to transform so many things once it gets productized because it's the other thing most of this stuff was stuck in Labs it wasn't productized so if you look at what's happening stable diffusion people have built hundreds of products on this ecosystem already like make your own sneakers put yourself into any movie you know that an architecture they've done 3D worlds like the Cambrian explosion of talent is the similar to what I've seen at the started early days of web 3 except for there's no reason to bootstrap economic incentives when you're creating value a lot of value in the world to be honest is the entropium information how much fighting in the world has taken by taking unstructured data and making it structured that's exactly what this technology enables anyone to do and so the future must be that we have ai that works with us to structure the world around us to enable us to achieve more that's kind of my theory here and this is again why like I said needs to be dispersed and diverse so you would urge towards augment augmented Humanity as opposed to a singularity or is it augmented and then a singularity where does this go so look um I find the whole AGI thing largely distasteful for a variety of reasons I think it misaligns a lot of incentives and I think the current way that a lot of these big labs are going which is that you take the data and you create gigantic models that are only usable by gigantic machines will probably kill us all If it creates a singularity because the incentive alignment of these groups is to service ads and manipulate us effectively and it's trained on largely Western data sets you know what happens when you like there was this thing Lisa the chat bot from um was it Lisa no Tay the chatbot from Microsoft remember that because it became abusive it became a Nazi so if it talk to people and learn from them within a day and a half at 10 limited Nazi you know like if I train on the internet I'm gonna create a really up AI to put it quite honestly right it's not gonna be a guy that loves it's gonna be either that probably freaking kills us all whereas if everyone's got their own AIS and this came through your thing like there's a network learn if we take the models of all of humanity and all the cultures and all the different ethical views and we combine those models and all these AIS are designed to augment Humanity rather manipulate them I think that's a far more positive potential I don't think it's the fish I think a lot of work needs to be done around this list AI is dangerous but it's inevitable and the way that it's being controlled by private corporations again you know I'm a capitalist you know I'm going to build a trillion dollar company to help 10 billion people or whatever but I think the current mechanism is wrong and I think again there's a lot of things around the singularity thing that are misaligned if we do build signality I would like it to help us all but in the meantime let's just help people but let's make people more creative let's make people able to yeah there is unintended consequences you get that right there are very unintended consequences we have no idea what the probabilistic outcome is of this this is decision making under uncertainty not risk right so this is why the default for all of the corporations is this technology should not be released to anyone because we're the only ones responsible for this technology and that in itself and that doesn't stand up to scrutiny both there's different outcomes from different methodology giving it to everybody who knows what foreign governments do with you know there's a lot here the other thing I can tell you on that one foreign governments already have access to this technology so Russia and other China other places ramped up their super computers massively so they already have access to far more advanced versions of the technology than the one that's being made widely available which is one of the reasons we need to build up our immunity ahead of the next election cycle so you think that the the the let's use the Russian example a Russian online misinformation campaign is now being run by AI which is why it's pretty much Unstoppable if you if you build better AI I mean to be honest do you like Twitter and things like that like come on man you can do better than that like you see all the check mark hijacking and things like that you can tell what an AI is if you've got sufficiently Advanced AI on the other side but again people learn to not trust everything they see until we introduce the new structure like we right now need to have a verification protocol for information uh social media and our information systems aren't adequate to the task uh the internet is a no I think there's Max Clifford from efforts of this it's a intelligence amplifier but only for the few so what happens the internet took it compressed it down then some people just went way out there and they have disproportionate impacts upon everyone and most people are left behind they have the audiences they set the narrative and the narrative that basically is most appealing to the Millennium part of our brain is one of divisiveness which is why the middle is disappeared and that's why I can tap into these things that's right exactly right because you know the easiest way to manipulate humans is emotion and the strongest emotions are the polarizing emotions whereas with this technology you can say I want to this article written from the perspective of a tea party conservative versus a Libertarian and I will automatically change that it's a universal translation engine as well again which is crazy create it clearly yeah yeah without question so okay once we've got this technology we've got another Super Trend that's happening at the same time obviously there's a few super Trends all happening I call them the exponential age one of them is compute power all of this right so they all go together the other one is robotics so now how close are we to creating sentient robots where is sentient in this process what's the definition of sentient I don't know that's the question we don't know right nobody knows what sentence is there is no commonly defined thing um in terms of like the things you see in the movies nobody knows because this is the thing if you ask anyone how far away are from Singularity or intelligence um people will say at most at minimum 18 months right um what is it why because what possible information could you have to say that a human level intelligence is less than 12 months away I'm not sure and nobody's been able to tell me an answer so you know this is a case of we don't know but what we do know is that AI is getting better than humans at certain things so like open AI just released maybe they were pressured by someone yeah open source version of a software called whisper which is a dynamic transcription engine you can speak in five different languages in the same sentence and it will transcribe it perfectly into English it's actually got above human level transcription quality and so stable diffusion is above human level image generation quality gpt3 is above human level writing quality when we combine those all together you will get an illusion of sentience because you can't say it's not a human maybe but is it really sentient and has agency I don't know and for the robotics thing I think that Tesco's got some much bigger plans than they're letting on in regards to that and you're going to see some big speed UPS yeah again I think people are under estimating the speed of what is happening and I think you've confirmed it to me that the speed of which all of this is happening is is ridiculous it's a true exponential this is also actually when you look at AI research papers it's a doubling every 24 months on that so it actually is an exponential thing on AI research papers when you plot it on a log graph is a straight line so as this goes it will continue going exponential and like I said exponentials are a hell of a thing we are not equipped to handle them no and we've got too many well too many we're going to have the fastest pace of change Humanity's ever seen because of Technology because there's so many of these all happening at the same time it's even as everything else breaks down all our systems are at the edge that's why I called it stability because I was like we need to reform educational Healthcare and all these things quick this is not normal what we're seeing today you know like they might say oh interest rates are seven percent what worse that could happen come on guys like these are symptoms not kind of causes the reality is our systems our outdated need to be improved so what happened with crypto is they tried to create a whole new system and then there's this system and the interfaces where all the money is made and lost whereas this technology because it can take unstructured data to structured data can sit in our systems and extend them they can disrupt them or it can extend them so it's really interesting I think again the pace of change will be ridiculous so how the hell would somebody like real Vision deal with I mean every company on the world in the world has to change their business models yet again people are changing to web 3 because that's another new business model but here we've got the application of Technology at scale in a totally disruptive way how the hell do we all deal with it how do we even get ahead so the lovely thing is that you know when I go into the biggest media companies in the world right now they've already prototyped the technology internally because we made it so they could this is a new internet that's coming and so the reason I set up stability was to be the layer one for Next Generation AI so my aim is to build the biggest company in the world that puts this technology to everyone so they can build their own models or if they want the white glove service they come to us and we forward deploy Engineers to take all the content in the world and make a living and Interactive um but you just kind of got to get into this and again you know how you remember how it was when you sent the first Bitcoin you know it's magic sufficiently of our technology is Magic this is the same when you create your first image like if you do something boring it's given like whatever right it's style transfer but when you create your first original image combining different styles and Concepts and the image in your head becomes reality you're like this is new this is different this is crazy it's the biggest thing of all time and it's not just for images images are the Breakthrough wedge yeah because it's gone from 20 to 80 language gpt3 was an 80 to 90 moment this is 99 of the world don't believe they can create they can suddenly create anything you've got to just get in there and you've got to basically find where it is because what happens is that we're playing Christiansen had this wonderful description of infrastructure as the most efficient means by which a society stores and distributes value the Valley Landscape in content in Enterprise in a lot of things in information is about to be upended and we don't know what the new landscape is and so you've got to be in there to understand that what role do humans play um you know obviously we've got a shrinking world population over time so I think of robots and AI as demographics and I wrote a few articles about it so these are new demographics but they can proliferate very fast so does that increase GDP growth and humans need to move towards some sort of universal basic income or different roles how are you thinking that I think that we need to move towards Universal basic income like uh you know this is why I'm rolling this out in Emerging Markets the education tablets create the best data sets to feed models for every nation so I'm going to make it to the Malawi adds percentage points to it GDP Ethiopia as per level to support their GDP India is the number one market for this because they have atar India stack 5G and all the capital needed so India is one of our biggest markets by far and literally we will accelerate Indian GDP and the Indians will then have a better system than we have in the west like already 13 months to literacy and numeracy on one hour a day is better than most primary you know kindergartens right so think about what it's going to be when it's a self-learning AI system it's going to be crazy but then they are equipped for that and you need to have things like ebi so one of the things we've done is in our country level subsidiaries and we're doing just about all the countries in the world 10 of the shares are reserved for the kids that use our education tablets so they'll be getting shares um as they kind of grow and then we're trying to figure out how Ubi looks like on the back of that which is insane like we shouldn't have to do that but nobody else is thinking about the pace of change and scale of this uh this is a dow or a foundation or something I wanted to do a dow Dows originally and then I realized the infrastructure wasn't there and then I realized let's just IPO in every single country and create the next trillion dollar business that's the best way to do this distributed the metrics distributed listing okay interesting yeah this should be the listing the Indian version of stability should be owned by the Indians for the Indians we're the smartest Indians running it uh there's opportunity here you know same for all these other countries maybe Dao's work in the future maybe you can do air drops it's open right but this is a cool thing this technology has an exponential so you notice nobody knows what the answer is final question because there's a lot to digest here how are governments going to deal with this so West the European Union is trying to ban open source artificial intelligence now because they view the edges regulation so authors of models will be liable for the use of the models the US is uncertain right now the UK is massively Pro Ai and so they've been upgrading it massively uh in Emerging Markets guess what I'm going to the governments to telling them they can have this technology for free they love me so you'll have most of the world loving it and then Europe is a big question mark us is a small question mark and I think they'll be very Pro this because it adds GDP at a time when there is no abundance like the question is does it then collapse GDP afterwards just don't think that far honestly no when I look at it you know what is GDP GDP is population growth plus productivity this does both population growth and productivity because it is population right that robots and AI are demographics and it increases productivity so that should mean the pie increases so per capita GDP Rises that's my working hypothesis until it replaces the humans eventually anyway exactly and there's this other part which is that basically the west and advanced economies have borrowed too much from their balance sheet from the future based on identity whereas you look at India and other places they haven't done that so when you incorporate this technology with God's identity structures you suddenly have massive credit creation like you've never seen before because information which money can flow much nicer around India or freaking Ethiopia or anywhere else especially because our tablets are standardized tablets that we're deploying at scale with a new type of bond whereby you only pay based on outcomes if you're a donor which is measured through the tablets so my thing is like infrastructure uplift for those countries the West I have no idea what to do with like I'm just going to the companies and say give me your content and let's share in this upside um but it's difficult to try and fix the UK or us or Europe and there's enough smart people there who can do that have an amazing conversation I've absolutely loved it I'm terrified and excited at the same time which is what I was hoping oh I'll definitely get you back to talk more about this because we barely scratched the surface yeah no problem like I said we've kind of not talked about it publicly I think this is one of the first times we're talking about actually the bigger plans like I think we're recording this now next week we do our big launch event but everyone needs to know about this right and everyone needs to participate because there should be a communal effort because we need to guide it together right exactly right well listen best of luck with everything let's hope the unintended consequences are not as bad as could be we'll only find out but we're going down this path anyway regardless so you might as well give it to the masses and not to the few exactly cheers thank you my friend there is so much to unpack for an interview like this firstly it shows that the hypothesis that technological growth is going exponential and it is not going to stop regardless of what the central banks are doing or inflation's doing it's kind of irrelevant when the speed of Technology technological adoption is so rapid and so truly extraordinary and profound the ways what this is changing Humanity both from education medical Sciences science in general the creative Industries the media industry everybody this is again happening on a scale like the internet but maybe even more so and we've got many of these Technologies all overlapping that's what I've talked about before blockchain technology has been the fastest adoption of any technology the world has ever seen and looks like AI may even exceed that and then we've got Robotics and space and internet of things and on and on and on so you can either fear this stuff or you can use it to your advantage and invest in your own future and that's the route I take there is unintended consequences we just don't know what they are and I think emad's point about should it be given to the few or the many to deal with those unintended consequences I think he's probably right that give it to everybody is probably the only way around this anyway a truly extraordinary interview and I hope you enjoyed it we hope you enjoyed the video at realvision we help you understand the complex world of Finance business and the global economy with in-depth analysis from real experts Join the Revolution at realvision.com

Channel: Real Vision

Views: 210,317

Keywords: Finance, Markets, Economy, Stock Market, Investing, Trading, Financial Literacy, Recession, Interview, Conversation, Strategy, Insight, Analysis, Thesis, Short Seller, Real Vision, Equities, Raoul Pal, Inflation, Stagflation, Monetary Policy, Money, Federal Reserve, emad mostaque, artificial intelligence, AI, AI use cases, AI 2022, Stability ai, ai images, ai pictures, ai music, tech industry, ai engineer, Stable Difussion, open source ai, open source, image generating algorithm, ai art

Id: YaRdZ7d6o2Y

Length: 61min 19sec (3679 seconds)

Published: Thu Dec 01 2022