Raoul Pal on the BIG Crypto Picture

Kraken Pro is the powerful crypto platform for experienced traders who demand the best with Advanced charts realtime Market analytics and lightning fast trade execution Kraken Pro empowers you to trade your way customize your setup and make every pixel count by rearranging and stacking trading modules in a way that makes sense to you on Kraken Pro you have the freedom to put your favorite Market analytics and execution tools exactly where you need them and whether you receive Season Pro or just starting out Kraken Pro has everything you need to navigate over 210 plus assets with confidence join the thousands of season traders who trust Kraken Pro visit realvision docomo hi Ral pal here and welcome to my show the journey man where I travel to the Nexus of macro crypto and the exponential age of Technology now this is a special and I know you like these they tend to get a lot of views um it's really again my framework for understanding crypto it's part of the Festival of learning on real Vision at real Vision we've been passionate educators of all of you about all financial markets all economies how to invest how to trade we've got courses set up for you we have things like the Festival of learning to teach you and we've been teaching you about crypto since day one since we first launched and we said listen this is important so here is my piece for the Festival of learning that I'm specially releasing here on YouTube now I want you to realize that this is just some of the work that we do at real Vision the Festival of learning if you join that and if just click on the link below will give you a lot more Nuance from some of the greatest Minds in the space so please come and join us for that it's free so you'd be crazy if you don't educate yourself you can't just trust me cuz I produce a great set of charts you'll see coming it's pretty killer presentation I got to give it but I want you to learn from others I want you to go to real vision.com and just sign up and jooy the Festival of learning it's pretty straightforward and you will get a lot more out of it also while you're watching this do me a favor I know you like these videos please put it in the comment section also please subscribe to the channel and hit the like trying to grow the channel the more I grow the channel the better guests I can get um and it also makes me feel good um because if not I'm shouting into the dark anyway enjoy the piece and I'll talk to you afterwards join me Ral pal as I go on a journey of Discovery through the macro crypto and exponential age landscapes in the journey man I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together hi everyone now as ever when I do a presentation like this I was speaking on behalf of not real Vision but of myself Ral Al from Global macro investor and also from exponential age the ass management firm that I have a crypto funer funds that a lot of This research is from so you'll see xam charts in here just so that you know now to set this up you're all here for the Festival of learning and it's all generally about crypto and how we look at crypto and macro together to give us what we're looking for and I'm trying to teach you how I look at this and there's a lot in this there's going to be a lot of charts to run through um but I think it'll give you a very cohesive picture and what I want to get across to you today this is the biggest macro opportunity of all time I've basically dedicated a lot of my life to this trade now and many many other in the space particularly macro players have basically just given up trading other instruments and just gone towards crypto because the world driven by the everything code is basically all one trade the debasement of currency by the central banks and therefore you want to own the best performing asset and if the world is that simple it really does make things much easier for us now this is not for everybody not everybody wants to take the kind of risks but this will give you a very good idea of why this is the biggest macro trade of all time now when I first wrote about it in GMI back in 2012 or 13 I said it then and I stupidly should have just dropped everything and just done this one trade but I didn't um but really I've been in it full-time since 2020 you know the sell-off in 2022 was the opportunity I was looking for to add to the trade you know I don't believe that if you've got a long-term view you should really try trade around it should just keep compounding um but others think differently to that and I don't know what I'll do this time around I'll probably take some lifestyle chips off and continue to run the trade this trade is the biggest macro trade of all time and it's not just about this cycle it probably goes into 2030 and maybe well beyond that so it's a big one so anyway pay attention everybody I'm going to start to go through the charts of why this is the biggest macro trade in history firstly I'm going to start with the everything code the everything code is the proprietary um thesis that we built a global macro investor that we actually now run our portfolio for xan you know investing in the very best hedge funds we use this everything code as the basis and it's the one where I discover that the debasement of currency is kind of everything and how it's very cyclical and it's understandable and forecastable as far as we can tell obviously things can change nothing is a pure you know perfe but I think this is right and it seems to be proving itself outright so firstly we observe that over time the trend rate of GDP growth has been falling in the United States and all around the world current Trend rate of GDP growth is about 1.75% why is it falling if you remember Trend rate of GDP is driven by three key factors one population growth two productivity growth three debt growth so let's address these three factors firstly let's have a look at productivity productivity has been declining over time as the workforce has been aging and that lowers the trend rate of GDP debt on the other hand has been rising but what we find is that household debt growth actually stops in 2008 because the banks just stopped lending to people so it's just harder to accumulate debt um also corporates have also been paying off debt and have really not been growing as fast as GDP but really A lot of the jet debt growth is now driven by the central banks as we all know currently the US is running massive deficits and is financing it by issuing yet more debt and we'll come on to that in a minute but the key thing here the thing that drives everything for the everything code and the world around us the return on assets the inflation everything is driven by demographics so here's the working age population age 15-64 Trend rate of growth it's been declining over time as the population ages those people are less productive the older you get the less productive you are they had borrowed debts in their early years and now a debt tapped out so this explains a lot and I've talked a lot about this on real Vision in the past but we can also project forwards and if you remember my piece about the retirement crisis I've been introducing this chart for a while which is the labor force participation rate versus the births deaths rate sorry this is the births rate going forwards by 14 years and obviously the birth rate drives how many people in the in the labor force over time and it suggests that participation of the labor force should continue to fall over time now we've had some pickup as um part-time workers have come back into the workforce because people don't have enough money and we'll see some of that too but over time we're going to see the labor force participation rate falling because the replacement of new people in the population is not as much as people leaving the workforce and that is the problem that slows economies it's affected Japan now affecting China South Korea Taiwan and most of Europe so anyway that is the Mega Trend but this Mega trend has some special qualities when you strip everything out and I keep saying demographics is everything you find that the labor force participation rate is exactly mirrored by US Government debt as a percentage of GDP so what it says is as the less people in the labor force the economy slows but there's all of the services to pay for for the old people the government debt increases that correlation is stunning and that is an incredibly powerful chart to understand the world we live in today why governments keep issuing debt and eventually when then having to print money to solve it it's all a function of population so what they do with that debt is they add liquidity into the system that's the debasement of currency that I've talked about and you can see the correlation between fed net liquidity and the US government debt as a percentage of GDP they're basically the same thing yes the scaling is different but overall the trend is the same so they're using liquidity to pay for the growth in debt by debasing the currency it's called Financial repression the other Stark thing that we found in the everything code is actually the real mechanism is that most of the government debt increase is just paying interest on existing debts they're not actually borrowing a lot more to invest in the economy it's basically servicing of old debts and so there is a very strong correlation between um the interest payments from the previous cycle and then the liquidity for this cycle so I.E they issue new debt it comes up for Renewal they have they've already been issuing new debt again this cycle so to pay for the interest payments from the last cycle they debase the currency via fed liquidity so they're increasing liquidity into the system now look at that curve that's the that's the expected path here driven by the interest payments from the pandemic debt which was a huge increase in debt now this debt keeps compounding obviously cuz you're adding debts on top of debts on top of debts on top of interest payments so I don't expect it to play out fully like this but we should expect a big increase in liquidity going forwards and that's crucial to the theory you see look at that trend of total liquidity think of it again in a different world that is the ongoing trend of debasement of currencies that when you debase the currency gives you an optical illusion that asset prices are rising so this chart of the NASDAQ versus the total liquidity index shows how correlated they are it's actually 97 a half% correlation now the NASDAQ actually outperforms this because it's a sec secular Trend but this debasement explains almost all of the movements of all assets over time which is why everything is so correlated yes some things lead some things lag but this is the crucial chart to understand the answer to the demographics is more debt the demographics is causing a slower um economy and to get over that they issue more liquidity debase the currency to pay for it that makes asset prices rise this is the everything code and it's really important you see most people don't understand that this is the global liquidity index from the major central banks it's growing at an 8% annualized rate now once you add in global inflation and let's call Global inflation about 4% you've got a 12% hurdle rate for any investment now that's pretty staggering because if you think about the S&P 500 it does about 12% a year so basically you're not getting ahead by doing it your savings aren't auring future value just present value this 12% hurdle rate is a huge problem for people if you don't understand it you are basically getting poorer if you don't hit your 12% so if you're just investing in bonds and think it's a good idea to get the 5% interest well you're actually your future self is getting poorer hey you if we enjoying this why not sign up for the YouTube channel so all you need to do RP the journeyman or click on the link below and you'll get everything I ever do as soon as it comes out see it there so when we look at Global equities versus the total liquidity index we've seen that since 2008 from the crisis when they started printing money it collapsed but then it's been sideways ever since so they've basically offset the balance sheet but done no better and if we took it from 2007 before the big printing started it's actually lost 2.54% a year versus the debasement so you've been poorer for owning equities generalized Global equities than um than the debasement itself so that's cost you money when we talk about crypto I use the chance of Bitcoin here because Bitcoin has the longest price history it too is stunningly correlated with global liquidity you see Bitcoin has an 87 a half% correlation not as high as the NASDAQ because as you can see it's the periods of outperformance that lowers that correlation when we start to get you know full kind of mania you know Crypt Mania cycles that you get in this exponential asset because it is a much more exponential curve um because it's driven by Tech adoption um and we'll come on to that in a second as well but you can see that liquidity is the driver of Bitcoin plus technology but when I look at Bitcoin versus global liquidity it's outperforming the debasement by 105% a year I mean that's a staggering difference versus global equities which are not doing anything at all and are probably negative that's a huge huge difference in your future purchasing power which is why this is such an important asset and again I'll come on to more of this in a bit but we've ascertained that technology stocks are in a secular bull market they're 97 and a half% correlated but they've been rising very well Over time however when you look at NASDAQ versus Bitcoin this is a crucial chart so NASDAQ is the best performing Equity Market in the world essentially but when you look at it versus Bitcoin since this period of debasement NASDAQ has underperformed by 99.93% just wrap your head around that and it doesn't stop it's underperforming by 45% a year and as you can see we're going to break to new lows and this chart will just continue as Bitcoin and crypto eat the world it's something I call the super massive black hole I look at Bitcoin charts versus every asset and they're all the same they're all down 99.9 something per. and then I look at relative values between Bitcoin and ethereum or Bitcoin and salana and that's where you get to choose what you think the fastest horses and that's why I chose salana this cycle but basically crypto is the super massive black hole the asset that appreciates it's faster than anything else and on a risk adjusted basis too so what's driving this well what's driving this is obviously the debasement of currency but why are the other 105% excess Returns versus that well it's this chart this is starting the internet at 5 million IP users and crypto at 5 million wallets active wallets so yes I know that they neither of them are perfect measures but I'm not looking for Perfection I'm looking for understanding and what we saw is the internet which was the fastest adoption of Technology the world had ever seen it GRS 76% a year and then slowed down after year eight to 43% a year crypto has been growing at 137% a year it's now at 516 million users versus 187 million of the internet at the same stage and then what we did is ass assume that crypto just slows down its growth to the same as the internet I don't think that's going to happen I think it'll be faster but it gets by um 2025 the end of 2025 we get to 1.1 billion users so that will be double the pace that the internet grew and because this is a network and the tokens are at your participation the network they go up a lot it's as simple as that it's meta's law so when you've got the biggest technological trend of any asset class in all of history you're going to make a lot of money if that Trend continues this is why it's the biggest macr trend of all time but it goes on if we look out further using the internet adoption growth and we slow down the trend rate of growth of crypto to the same as the internet going forwards we get to 4 billion users by 2030 that's half the world's population now will this be perfect it's been pretty perfect so far I've been showing this chart for 5 years now but let's assume not either way these numbers are simply staggering and that's why you've get that log chart of Bitcoin over time because it's the adoption curve is what you're seeing which is why the sell-offs even though they they sound terrifying down 75% are just blips in the overall Trend and over time it just keeps compounding growth you see to show how starkly this compound's growth this chart um of all of the asset markets since 2011 I think is is hilarious so you've got the usual NASDAQ blah blah blah so we can look ignore the top three for a second NASDAQ 177% beating the debasement that 12% number and compounded 800% since 2011 that's a [ __ ] good investment what a great investment that nasdaq's been then we go up look at the top Bitcoin Bitcoin every 3 years is the worst performing asset every the next three years in a row it's the best performing asset in the world and even with the draw Downs those scary draw Downs everybody hates it's compounded 20 million per return s since we started talking about Bitcoin on real Vision in 2014 it's up 450,000 per. its annualized return is 139% that that's mindblowing right we've never ever in history been given an asset like this but when you go out the risk curve a bit to newer crypto getting up the risk curve getting up the adoption curve well in 2016 out comes ethereum out of the gate monster returns huge draw Downs compounding returns 364,000 annualized at 149% which is better than Bitcoin salana came last cycle again came out of the gate fell 94% what are the compounded returns 7,713 which is 200% a year right so there is no asset class in all of history that's ever performed like this even with the draw Downs this is why I keep saying to people you just want to buy and hold them and if you can make the right switch amongst the big ones as the next big Network gets adoption you'll make even more compound returns right this is the biggest gift we've ever been given as investors and it's the biggest macro trade of all time let's go back to the risk reward topic here's yurian Tim's chart that I've stolen from him um which is on the left is all of the bubbles of risk rewards of assets and how they look pretty typical and this is how asset allocators think about it but when you add in Bitcoin you end up with a massive blank page with at the very top right this [ __ ] alien risk reward which is Bitcoin crypto is a complete alien in time in terms of performance and risk reward this chart includes the draw down of 2022 so you see again I keep saying it's a gift and people still don't really understand what a gift it is it's something unlike anything we've ever had in history and it gives us a hell of a chance to make money so to sum up what the biggest macr trade of all time is it's crypto going from 2.7 trillion where we are today to let's say 12 trillion by the end of this cycle and onto a 100 trillion within 10 years and you've got to understand this would be the fastest accumulation of an asset class in all recorded history in the shortest period of time time it'll have driven the highest returns of any asset class in all of recorded history in the shortest period of time in fact in any period of time and it will be the fastest accumulation of wealth the world has ever seen in the shorter period of time if we go and generate 90 90 odd trillion in wealth in the next 10 years to put that number in perspective because we're all getting bored of such big trillion numbers that is the S&P 500 is $50 trillion that is the accumulated worth of all the companies that have succeeded and failed and grown over time driven by the US economy it over the last 100 years is 50 trillion it's double that and you're going to do it in 10 years it's a global wealth shock on a scale never seen before in history it's like all of the Baby Boomers coming in and saving all at the same time in 10 years they entire life savings plus all of China coming in from the WTO as that opened and the wealth that generated plus India opening up plus all the Russians added together and probably doubled right this is the scale of what could happen here as assume R is a [ __ ] it's always a good thing to do maybe I'm R discount Me by 50% discount Me by 75% it's still at 25 trillion it's one of the largest increases in global wealth the world will have ever seen this is why it's the big macro opportunity this is why so many of my friends and colleagues famous macro people have just walked out of the old world into the new world because it's like this is the big one macro people look for the big trade you know it was the subprime crisis all of that but the returns coming out of this space to off all of those opportunities added together gone of the days where an incredible macro year would be pull Tuda Jones up 100% people in crypto get that regularly that's a pretty lackluster year and in fact you expect to see several 100% so look it's mind blowing anyway that's enough of the dream speak let's get on to the liquidity cycle and how it's driven because you need to understand that so liquidity is cyclical as I explained before here's the chart the dot chart of the um correlation between Global liquidity and Bitcoin very tight 87% correlation so we we know that we also know that we can construct a global macro investor a lead for liquidity it exactly caught the loan in Q4 2022 that's when we kind of doubled down and went super long technology and crypto because that was the botom that's when everybody else was getting Max bearish we got Max bullish using liquidity um the only other person who really use it in the same way as Mike how um and he does some great work as well but we've really gone down the macr crypto we have more macr crypto understanding a global macro investor than certainly anybody else in the world and how this all links together and I won't show all of it now but I'll show you some so that was the low that we chose in Q4 2022 all cataloged in GMI all cataloged in real Vision Pro macro you know we do everything out in the open so this is not us saying oh yeah we bought it wink wink no we did it's all cataloged anybody who's to subscribe to those Services know well what we did and since then it's been 34% now what's interesting is the everything code helped us understand how to forecast liquidity into the future again we're not expecting Perfection but you're expecting the Cycles to play out so here's the ism with a 15-month lead and the global liquidity why the ism leads is because it's actually inverted there it's because the business cycle keeps repeating because of the debt refy cycle I've talked so much about so what we are is it confirm some of the other charts I showed you before we should start to see global liquidity pickup going into election years that is very typical you know we've got the commercial real estate to deal with we've got how the hell are they going to keep issuing bonds to pay the interest when bond yields aren't coming down something's got to give and liquidity is going to give it to them so we know it's coming we just don't know how it could be in a new mechanism which is the Basel 4 agreement which allows which forces Banks to hold more treasuries the can be a number of ways we do this we will also maybe see a massive release of the treasury general account over the election period that's possible too we don't know where it's going to come from it's unlikely to come from straight quantitative easing because everybody knows what that is now so they'll find ways of obscuring what they're doing which is making you poorer they're basically taxing you every year by about 8% by devaluing um debasing the current in fact the FED have actually been debating faster than others at some like 15% a year if you just use the balance sheet but anyway let's use that Global number we're also starting to get the rate cutting cycle coming in now rate cutting doesn't actually go into the liquidity but it's part of the things that show you that the central banks want to move towards liquidity we've just started the cutting cycle started in Latin America with Brazil we're starting to see it across Europe we're starting to see it elsewhere and the next two years will be the feature of cutting rates sure maybe rates don't go as low as they were before maybe there's only a few rate Cuts if you remember or many of you won't but 1994 was the bond market blow up the FED raise rates a lot everybody blew up Banks went under very similar to 2022 1995 everybody expected the FED to cut rates several times they actually only twice 75 basis points in two goes and then went on hold for years essentially now most pundits in the market say well if they don't cut rates as much as the market was expecting it's going to be terrible answer was back then the stock market Rose 150% before super accelerating on a rate cut in 1998 and we got the NASDAQ Bubble at the end of that so I don't see any issue markets like stability and if they cut rates a bit because Jal needs to they're going to have to some figure some other way of doing the interest payments of paying the interest payments and what will happen is markets will continue to R it's liquidity Today's Show is brought to you by chintai your partner in asset tokenization licensed and regulated by Singapore's monary Authority and powered by the Innovative checks token chintai offers a compliant one onstop solution for bringing real world assets on chain chintai enables the tokenization of virtually any asset from carbet credits to corporate debt private funds and real estate enhancing liquidity and optimizing efficiency for all the technology becomes largely invisible and seamless to the end user I can take a selective store of value within a wider portfolio in a fairly liquid form very efficiently to anything whether it's some high value whiskey whether it's uh particular superar that's a one of three limited edition therefore and this fungible trading of them in a liquid form is the true end game here for tokenization with billions of dollars in client deals facilitated explore how you can take advantage of tokenization by visiting realvision tocom chinai okay so let's forecast out liquidity a bit further using the everything code so we saw that chart before this is ISM going forwards last time I showed you the ism versus liquidity here's ISM going forwards which says the business cycle is going to rise this is why currently cyclical stocks Commodities are rising because the ism is starting to pick up but we can also forecast it out and it gives us a peak in global liquidity in um September 2024 so this year we'll see a peak don't worry a peak is not a peak of markets this is a year- ofe rate of change we don't end up getting to negative liquidity until December 2025 so this is why I think this cycle runs between now and it started in 2022 sometime in 2025 somewhere probably towards the lat normally the crypto market end in December maybe comes a bit sooner we'll have to be on alert for that but basically this is how we see liquidity playing out again don't expect Perfection I'm not expecting to be perfect but it'll give you a pretty decent idea you don't need a massive liquidity cycle either you don't need 2020 to drive these things up you just need liquid liquidity to be positive and stay positive for markets to work their magic now those forecasts if I use the log channel of global liquidity using everything code forecast doesn't look unreasonable doesn't look unreasonable at all now it might not get to two standard deviations maybe it's one standard deviation like it got to in 2017 remember the crypto market then that was La La Land 2013 one standard deviation a complete wild crypto market so again you don't need the massive liquidity you just need liquidity and so that's where we think it might go let's see how it plays out that corresponds with the log channel in Bitcoin obviously and that would give us something like a forecast of around 270,000 by the end of this year again please don't hang on to my forecast say R pal forecast 270,000 this year that's not what I'm trying to do here what I'm trying to do is contextualize stuff for you and say listen between now and the end of the year it's going up a decent amount is it 150,000 is it 250,000 is something in the middle I don't know and I don't really care and nor should you people get too hung up on forecast when this asset is just going up over time anyway it means this year we'll be a very strong year and we can plug in some forecasts and I don't like giving these out to people because people again will take this out of perspective they will say Ral pal forecast $400,000 Bitcoin headline that's [ __ ] what I'm saying is using our model we see significant continued upside into 2025 where then incred liquidity starts falling and so sometime around the second half of the year we will see a a topping pattern in in Bitcoin and therefore crypto and it suggest that it should be strong even if you half my targets not targets half the analysis that comes out of the model that's still a great year that's my point please do not tell me that I'm forecasting 400 $1,000 Bitcoin I'm not going to take that because people deal with it irresponsibly and that's not the right thing I'm just saying it's going up a lot also fed liquidity is the driver of the eth Bitcoin cross which is a proxy for altcoin season now it's very interesting because we're now coming into the harving and it was roughly at this point back in 2020 the eth started bottoming versus Bitcoin and then took a while to base and then went up like a rocket ship for the entire next year I managed to capture that entire Trend and it's very normal for crypto summer um spring for Bitcoin to outperform and then as we come into crypto summer that we're transitioning into now e starts to outperform bitcoin this is a terribly unpopular thing to say because people say well eth is dead it's a dead chain it's not working blah blah blah blah BL just wait have patience you will see will it outperform salana I very much doubt it salana is earlier in the adoption curve so it means the percentage changes a larger so that's how I see it with that you can see the start of crypto spring which was the breakout of this pattern and the slight acceleration that's as we're getting to warmer days of spring as it were but really summer happens when you break the previous all-time high in market cap and things go utterly bananas so this is X ethereum so this is the rest of the space really starting to accelerate and sometime in 2024 we will hit alltime High market cap of alt coins and this chart will go truly into the banana Zone which I know is a very fun time people lose their [ __ ] minds in this period and I'm urging you to remember my rules about don't use leverage keep top three top five market cap tokens if you are going to go out the risk curve do it for 10% of your capital or less just be careful out there don't [ __ ] this up this is a gift but you can screw it up by getting greedy getting fomo and doing stupid [ __ ] you shouldn't do just don't do that if you want to have some fun catch a Al coin season do it with your 10% who knows you might make a 10x on it chances are you'll end up with a bunch of embarrassing stuff in your wallet that goes to zero over time that's the way it works but your eth salana Bitcoin I'll do just fine okay let's talk about kbo summer just in a very simplistic terms here's the chart of the seasons so spring is green we had a great spring this year summer is when a lot of the gains start to happen fall was tricky last time around we got a stunted cycle if you remember that kind of double toppy style thing was highly unusual 2017 2013 were more typical obviously of the full season and so we don't know how this one's going to play out I think it plays out more like 2013 2017 but it's all assessing the odds as we go but right now this is the easy year the summer so we should just be set it forget it and let the games accumulate and then very soon very soon like in the next month next month and a half we will start to hit the banana Zone and this is what happens when you hit the bananas and things get absolutely wild which is the really magical part of why this is the greatest macro trade of all time is this part and it's coming will it look the same as others who knows some have been absolutely crazy others were more difficult like the last cycle but that's usually what happens when we hit altcoin season from Summer and then into fall things get really really exciting now at exponential as ass management I won't talk much about that is we actually build a whole portfolio allocation of where we want to be on the risk curve using lots of factors that Julian Bell has put together from the everything code valuation percentiles volatility uh where we are in Old season different measurements of all of this these nine different things and then give it a total score right now we're at 9.2 out of 10 so almost at Max risk- taking but we're not there yet because we haven't got um we're not fully Into Summer but that that day will come and we allocate to managers according this kind of risk scoring is just the summary of what I've been talking about is right now this is the time to take risk don't use leverage be careful what you own have fun out there and do it right so hopefully what I've done here is try and teach you why this matters why you should in this Festival of learning listen to other people and learn some skills how not to [ __ ] this up which is crucially important because you're being given a gift why it's such a big gift how ridiculous the returns have been over time and are likely to be going forwards obviously there's no guarantee but I don't see anything changing how the everything code plays into this how the the refinancing of debts every four years creates a four-year cycle that happens to correspond with the Bitcoin harving cycle and the US presidential election cycle how that breaks down into different seasons how liquidity plays into this and how demographics play into it and how liquidity is being used to debase your currency making your future self poorer and then I've shown you how crypto fits into your portfolio to offset not only the debasement it's a life R for your asset but it's also happens to be an asset that goes up more than any other asset of all and this is not funny internet money it's actually driven by macro it's driven by the business cycle like all other assets are it's driven by the liquidity cycle which happens to be we think pretty forecastable yes it gives some crazy numbers for performance and again they're not my targets I don't really care where it gets to in price because the next cycle it's going to be higher and the cycle after that higher even if the returns lower over time maybe they don't there's a big thesis out there that that we will get tapering returns and the log channel of Bitcoin is the wrong way to look at it I don't see any evidence of that in the NASDAQ that's been a powerful log channel for a very long time now I don't see any reason why you need to get lower returns but maybe we do I'll worry about that when we get to 4 billion users so in a nutshell this space is going from 2.7 trillion in market cap it'll get to something like 10 12 trillion in this cycle it'll then have an inevitable bare Market whether it's as big as the previous bare markets or not we can't tell we've now got new participants putting in their 401K money every two weeks maybe they all Panic out nobody knows but it doesn't matter because those sell-offs are the opportunity if you can take some lifestyle chips off protect yourself in the great crazy days uh later this year here and then you're fine then you can run it if you want to you don't have to I will and then you can add into the bare Market when everybody's scared because you've got a plan this is the plan this is the framework that you need to have confidence just keep going anyway as I always say good luck out there the biggest macr trend of all time let's see if we can be part of this generation this generating of wealth the let's say 90 something trillion of wealth that's going to come because that will truly change your life and your family's life all right take care okay well I hope I got across to you all the things I was trying to explain in the video how big this is how not to [ __ ] it up how important this is and again I'm going to reiterate the don't [ __ ] this up don't use Leverage because it's a way people to take your coins store your coins carefully don't let anybody else have them I think most of the big exchanges are safe but to be extra safe I don't really leave stuff in exchanges it's all in Cold Storage yeah it's a pain to set up but once you do it you feel safer then don't Foo into stupid [ __ ] because your friends are making money or you're seeing some bloke making money in a mean coin if you want to do stuff outside of the three or four big crypto um cryptocurrencies then do it with 10% of your money there you can have fun there you can be a gambling filthy dgen but don't don't do that with the bulk of your assets because you think you're never going to get a chance how you going to grow your two grand it will compound over time just trust me on this and then you can play for the 100 X's whatever you do you will probably lose money in that uh in that 90% bucket when I look at my own allocation my own allocation is probably 1% um memes and [ __ ] like that most of it is just straightforward and I don't use leverage and even though I've used leverage over years I don't want to use leverage in a market that is this volatile anyway remember this is just part of the education go to real Vision I beg you real vision.com and just smarten yourself up get turn the information that you see into a world of knowledge and wisdom and the Festival of learning will help you do it and if you're watching this after the Festival of learning's taken place well you can watch the the the reruns of it there plus all of the education we've got on real Vision you can talk to the AI ask it for questions of how to understand you know the terms that people use how to understand what liquidity is how to understand all of this it's all there for you we built it for you anyway enjoy yourselves get some education and let's take advantage of the biggest macro opportunity of all time Today's Show is brought to you by chintai your partner in asset tokenization licensed and regulated by Singapore's monetary Authority and powered by the Innovative checks token chintai offers a compliant One-Stop solution for bringing real world assets on chain chintai enables the tokenization of virtually any asset from carbet credits to corporate debt private funds and real estate enhancing liquidity and optimizing efficiency for all the technology becomes largely invisible and seamless to the end user I can take a selective store of value within a wider portfolio in a fairly liquid form very efficiently to anything whether it's some high value whiskey whether it's a particular superar that's a one of three limited edition therefore and this fungible trading of them in a liquid form is the true end game here for tokenization with billions of dollars in client deals facilitated explore how you can take advantage of tokenization by visiting realvision tocom chintai hey there revolutionaries to join a community sharing insights like you just watched head over to realvision tocom there you will get unbiased insights and exclusive access to the very best brightest and biggest names in finance be a part of our community of lifelong Learners see you there

Channel: Real Vision

Views: 66,733

Keywords: Finance, Markets, Economy, Stock Market, Investing, Trading, Financial Literacy, Recession, Short Seller, Real Vision, Equities, Raoul Pal, Inflation, Stagflation, Monetary Policy, Money, Federal Reserve, Fed, financial markets, financial markets podcast, realvision, real vision podcast, investing strategy, investing podcast, money podcast, macroeconomy podcast, macro podcast, monetary policy podcast, financial education, Raoul Pal on the BIG Crypto Picture

Id: Yo_Hbz1d6aw

Length: 48min 21sec (2901 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 25 2024