THE INCREASINGLY SUCCESSFUL EFFORTS, AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE, FOR INFORMATION TO GET THROUGH IN MOSCOW. SO PUTIN IS FACING STRUGGLES, BOTH AT HOME AND THE BATTLEFIELD. SO I WANT TO GET YOUR TAKE ON HIM AND WHAT MIGHT BE NEXT. IS THERE PERHAPS SOME SORT OF OFF RAMP, SOME SORT OF VICTORY HE CAN CLAIM TO WIND THIS DOWN, OR DO YOU THINK HE IS COMMITTED ALL IN? AND IF HE -- HIS FUTURE, HOW DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD REENGAGE WITH HIM AND RUSSIA WHENEVER THIS CONFLICT MIGHT END OR ARE THEY NOW GOING FORWARD AS LONG AS HE'S IN CHARGE CUBA OR NORTH KOREA? >> WELL, I THINK THE FIRST THING IS WE NEED TO DISPEL THE MYTH OF WHAT DONALD TRUMP CALLED THE SAVVY GENIUS STRONGMAN. THIS IS NOT A SAVVY GENIUS. HE'S NOT BEHAVING LIKE A SAVVY GENIUS. HE IS IRRATIONAL AND HE IS BEHAVING IRRATIONALLY BECAUSE HE HAS FALLEN INTO WHAT I CALL THE DICTATOR TRAP, WHICH IS BECAUSE TO STAY IN POWER DICTATORS DO THINGS THAT ULTIMATELY CAUSE THEIR DOWNFALL BECAUSE THEY CONSTRUCT FAKE REALITIES AND THEY MAKE MISTAKES BASED ON THE FAKE REALITIES. YOU THINK OF WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN GETS IN TERMS OF INFORMATION, HE HAS BEEN IN POWER FOR TWO DECADES. PEOPLE WHO CROSS HIM, THEIR FAMILIES MAY FALL OFF BALCONIES. THAT'S A DANGEROUS POSITION TO BE IN. I THINK THE REAL QUESTION YOU POSE IS WHAT IS NEXT. I THINK THERE WILL BE A PARIAH STATUS FOR RUSSIA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND I HOPE IT IS THE CASE. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT THAT THE OLIGARCHS AROUND PUTIN KNOW IT IS NOT A TEMPORARY CHANGE, THAT IT IS GENUINELY THE NEW WAVE OF THE FUTURE, THEY WILL BE ISOLATED, THEY WILL NOT BE SAILING THEIR YACHTS AROUND THE MEDITERRANEAN, THEY WILL NOT BE STASHING THEIR CASE, BUYING UP PROPERTY IN LONDON. AS SOON AS THEIR LIVES BECOME MORE RUSSIAN, I THINK THAT PROVIDES THE END GAME IN WHICH VLADIMIR PUTIN CAN BE FORCED OUT OF POWER FOR PEOPLE WHO GREASED THE WHEELS FOR HIM FOR THE LAST TWO DECADES. >> I WANT TO TAKE A QUESTION OF HIM. BRIAN, THIS IS DAVID IGNATIUS. I'M CURIOUS WHETHER YOU SEE ANY CRACKS IN THE INNER CIRCLE AROUND PUTIN. I DON'T MEAN THE OLIGARCHS WHO DEPEND ON HIM FOR PATRONAGE, BUT I MEAN THE SECURITY SERVICES THAT REALLY SHIELD HIS REGIME. DO YOU SEE ANY EVIDENCE THAT THOSE PEOPLE WHO DO HAVE THE POWER TO MAKE CHANGES IN RUSSIA ARE MOVING TOWARD ACTION? >> I DON'T SEE EVIDENCE, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT DOESN'T EXIST. THE REASON FOR THAT IS BECAUSE THESE THINGS OFTEN CONVEY THEMSELVES IN TIPPING POINTS. SO ONCE SOMEBODY MOVES AGAINST A DICTATOR IT IS AN EXTREMELY RISKY THING TO DO ON THEIR OWN. ONCE THERE'S AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH MULTIPLE PEOPLE THINK, WE CAN DO IT, THAT'S WHEN IT MOVES QUICKLY. WHEN YOU PREDICT THINGS LIKE THE ARAB SPRING, NOBODY THOUGHT HE WOULD FACE COLLAPSE IN 2010, BUT IN DAYS HE DID. EVEN THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE EVIDENCE OF THIS, THERE ARE PEOPLE AROUND PUTIN, NOT JUST THE OLIGARCH, WHO UNDERSTAND IT IS A GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT AND A GENERATIONAL SHIFT. THE MORE THEY UNDERSTAND THAT THEIR FATES ARE INTERTWINED WITH VLADIMIR PUTIN THE MORE THEY'RE GOING TO PUSH HIM TO END THE WAR, AND I THINK THAT HAS TO BE THE GAME PLAN. THE INFORMATIONAL SPACE IS CRUCIAL HERE, TOO BECAUSE IT IS SOMETHING WHERE VLADIMIR PUTIN IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO MISCALCULATE. HE HAS CONSTRUCTED A FAKE REALITY AROUND HIMSELF, HE SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH PEOPLE WHO DON'T CRITICIZE HIM BECAUSE OF FEAR, AND HE DOESN'T ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND I THINK WHAT IS GOING ON. SO YOU HAVE TO DEAL VERY CAREFULLY WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THIS IS NOT A FULLY RATIONAL MAN YOU ARE DEALING WITH AND, THEREFORE, YOU KNOW, WHEN WE LOOK FOR SIGNALS HE MAY BE ON THE WAY OUT EVENTUALLY, I THINK IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC IN THE SHORT RUN. BUT IT WILL HAPPEN QUICKLY, NOT IN A SLOW BURN WITH LOTS AND LOTS OF SIGNS BEFORE EVERYONE MOVES AGAINST HIM. >> SO, BRIAN, I'M CURIOUS. I WANT TO GET YOUR TAKE ON SOMETHING, SORT OF A CLARIFYING MOMENT IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST THAT THIS WAR HAS PROVIDED. YOU KNOW, WHEN GENERAL McCAFFREY WAS RISKING HIS LIFE FOR THIS COUNTRY, WHEN HE WAS FIGHTING ACROSS THE WORLD AND DEFENDING AMERICA AND ALL THAT WE STOOD FOR, HE HAD TO DEAL WITH USEFUL IDIOTS FROM THE LEFT THAT TRIED TO PREACH A MORAL EQUIVALENCY BETWEEN THE SOVIET UNION AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, BETWEEN MAO AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. NOW, GENERAL McCAFFREY AND OTHERS ARE HAVING TO DEAL WITH USEFUL IDIOTS FROM THE RIGHT. IN ONE OF THE SHOCKING THINGS I HAVE SEEN SOME OF THE USEFUL IDIOTS ON THE RIGHT ACTUALLY DIDN'T PARROT RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION ON UKRAINIAN BIOLOGICAL LABS. THEY ACTUALLY WERE ON THE CUTTING-EDGE. I READ IT FIRST FROM A USEFUL IDIOT HERE AND THEN A WEEK LATER I HEARD THE SAME THING COMING OUT OF THE MOUTH OF A RUSSIAN GENERAL WHICH, OF COURSE, WAS A TIP OF THE HAT TO -- FOR US TO EXPECT FUTURE CHEMICAL WEAPONS. IN FACT, I'M JUST CURIOUS, WITH ALL OF YOUR STUDYING ABOUT AUTHORITARIANISM AND THE FACT THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, TOO MANY PEOPLE IN THIS COUNTRY ACTUALLY ARE ATTRACTED TO PUTIN-STYLE AUTHORITARIANISM, WHAT IS YOUR REACTION TO WHAT YOU HAVE SEEN? >> WELL, I THINK WE HAVE TWO DIFFERENT STRUGGLES THAT ARE HIGHLY LINKED. THERE'S A DOMESTIC STRUGGLE BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND AUTHORITARIANISM AND THERE'S A GEOPOLITICAL STRUGGLE GLOBALLY BETWEEN DEMOCRACY AND AUTHORITARIANISM AND WE NEED TO DECIDE RIGHT NOW TO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF BOTH OF NOSE FIGHTS BECAUSE THEY'RE LINKED. THOSE SEEKING TO OVERTURN ELECTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES ARE WILLING TO PROVIDE EXCUSES FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN. I THINK THIS IS SOMETHING WHERE THE GEOPOLITICAL MOMENT HAS COME, WE HAVE TO DECIDE. YOU KNOW, THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE UNITED STATES WHO LONG THOUGHT, OH, PERHAPS WE CAN ACCOMMODATE VLADIMIR PUTIN, PERHAPS WE CAN ACCOMMODATE CHINA. I THINK IT IS TIME TO DECIDE WHETHER WE STAND WITH DEMOCRACIES OR STAND WITH DICTATORSHIPS. THE LONGER YOU STAND WITH DICTATORSHIPS THE MORE THEY'RE ABLE TO BURN YOU LATER. I THINK IT IS SOMETHING PEOPLE ARE FINDING OUT THE HARD WAY. I HAVE BEEN ARGUING THIS FOR THE LAST MANY, MANY YEARS. I THINK IT IS SOMETHING WHERE THERE'S A WAKE-UP CALL THAT HAPPENED IN UKRAINE AND I HOPE THE WAKE-UP CALL GOES BEYOND THE BORDERS OF UKRAINE AND STARTS TO ACTUALLY CHANGE THINGS IN THE REST OF THE WORLD AND HOW
Really enjoyed what this professor had to say. Made more sense than a lot of other things we have heard over the last few weeks.