Putin and the Presidents: Marie Yovanovitch (interview) | FRONTLINE

at the end of 2021 President Joe Biden is briefed that Russia's plans for attacking Ukraine or Syria for a full-scale Invasion what are the stake at that moment what is on the line in this invasion of Ukraine by Russia how big a moment is that I think it's a pretty big moment because it's not only the invasion of a sovereign country on Russia's border without any provocation and I should say re-invasion right because of course the war had been going on since 2014 um but obviously this was on a much larger scale and you know frankly if Russia is allowed to get away with this if Russia Stomps all over Ukraine and takes it over um then it affects the entire International order that we've been sort of living under since since World War II and it makes um for a you know if Putin and his ilk are able to set the rules for how countries cooperate or don't you know it's a might makes right kind of world and smaller countries are just going to have to put up and even though the United States is a larger country that makes for a less secure world all the way around and less secure for more Americans a less prosperous world you can imagine what it does to supply chains and certainly a less free world so the stakes I think were pretty high and you can see how the administration the Biden Administration responded it responded by bringing together allies and partners uh you know in those months leading up to the war you know there was a plan for sanctions there was a plan for uh for military assistance and you know once the war started in February of 22 clearly that plan was ramped up beyond anything any of us could have imagined I think in 2021 and um yeah so I think the stakes were pretty high and they continued to be very high I mean the the plans as you say were very explicit the warnings were very explicit yes and I should have said that the we were release of intel was amazing the president was talking to Putin he was saying maybe there were public statements that were being made there was a rallying of allies and yet Putin is not deterred does he not believe that threats have credibility at that point why is Biden unable to deter Putin in that moment well and I should say while Biden is certainly the leader of kind of the western Coalition for lack of a better word you know many other leaders tried as well I think that Putin had a plan I think he wanted to implement it he had made certain assessments that's quite clear that he had a big powerful army military that it would just take a couple days to take heave and beyond that Western Unity would not hold and that the ukrainians aren't really a real people they're not a real country they have a teeny little military compared to Russia's and they wouldn't fight oh and if they did fight uh it would not be effective and it turned out that all of those assessments were incorrect he announces the war which he calls the special military operation in February he gives a speech and one of the things that's remarkable about the speech which is known for the Empire of Lies quote is a lot of the beginning of the speech the first third of the speech is actually about the United States and about the west and about their domination is it surprising to you as somebody who knows Putin to hear that he's about to invade Ukraine and yet he's starting off his speech talking about the United States yeah um and he's continuing to do that right I mean the speech that he gave at the beginning of the U.N General Assembly I mean in Moscow uh to to the Russian people also uh you know talks talks about the west and how the West is at war with us that's not an exact quote but that's certainly uh certainly the sense I think that um you know it's hard for me to know um to what extent Putin really believes this or um to what extent he has just convinced himself that this is what he needs to share with um with his cohort uh with the Russian people to um to justify the steps that he has taken over time and you know most recently this attack on on Ukraine but the theme that um the West is aggressive against Russia that um you know NATO is a threat to Russia has been a predominant one for decades actually and I would I would also say that I don't think you know again one of the miscalculations that Putin made was that you know Ukraine is not a real country and so I think Russia sees Ukraine um sort of doing America's bidding that Ukraine is somehow um you know like a a pawn of the United States and we're telling them what to do you know somebody who's a former ambassador to Ukraine I can tell you it's not quite like that um but um but I I do believe that that is what uh what uh what Putin believes so to the extent that um the ukrainians fight back um you know I think I think Putin sees that as the west and of course since the the West has been helping Ukraine um through sanctions with military assistance economic assistance um you know that adds um you know fuel to the fire so to speak for that for that belief do you think he's been building to this moment for a while I do I think that um he's just been been waiting I mean it's the pattern of his presidency whether it's chechnya whether it's Georgia in 2008 uh whether it's Ukraine one uh in 2014 2015 and now this I think that I think that Putin very much wants to re-establish the former Russian Empire and he's willing to wait I mean I think he he believes and I think he still believes um that the West is going to lose interest that we are going to turn away to the next shiny object that is out there and we are not going to stay the course on Ukraine and then he can you know continue on uh and you know he's also told us you know he has his sights on um other other countries as well so he um you know in in some ways um you can't trust what he says because he lies in other ways he tells us exactly who he is and what his plans are and so differentiating between the two can sometimes be a real back I would like to go back to what you said about um you know the the West is the Empire of Lies it's really interesting that Putin would say that before the war because here's the United States and Britain um you know putting out intelligence that Russia has this aim of invading uh Ukraine um which is you know I've never seen anything like it it's unprecedented in my experience um and it turns out that all the intelligence that was shared um actually turned out to be true right and you know what was Putin saying during that time he was saying we're never going to invade you know it's all made up lies and so you know exactly where is the Empire of Lies so let's go back to how we got here because one of the things that Putin said in that speech in February of 24th of 2022 is he says we lost confidence for one moment and it was enough to disrupt the balance of forces in the world he's talking about the collapse of the Soviet Union and presumably about Gorbachev and Yeltsin how do you understand how Putin saw the collapse of the Soviet Union and how it influenced who he is today yeah well um you know I don't have any special special knowledge but I mean I think here we should take him at his word when he said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy of the previous Century I mean I think he did believe that I mean you can only imagine what it must have been like as a young KGB officer in East East Germany um and you know your entire your country disappears or is in the process of Disappearing you're there on the front lines uh and the Communist Party obviously will uh will lose its uh raise on death and um so it must have been devastating I mean I you know sometimes you know what it's helpful to try to put oneself in in somebody else's shoes and I think that must have been a severe blow now what we see is that he pretty quickly um adjusts and um you know moves on to become the deputy mayor of um you know Leningrad St Petersburg and you know he's the guy um given his background who manages international relations now it's not the capital but it's a big big city and there's lots of businesses lots of um foreigners from foreign governments who want to um to go to Petersburg and he's the one who's managing all of that and he's you know in the course of that that's the beginning of his accumulation of the great wealth that he allegedly has would you think that the because we're going to talk in particular about Ukraine but also about Georgia what does it seem like or what does he say how he views the loss of what they call the near abroad yeah well I think just the the term the near abroad it's it's not abroad right like um Britain is abroad France is abroad but um the the Russians in this new configuration um uh can't even bring themselves to call the other former republics as being completely abroad they're the near abroad and I think in the very beginning there was a sense that Moscow would still call all the shots that countries would look to Russia for everything and there was an attempt to um you know create the Commonwealth of independent states that never really amounted uh too much but you know we didn't know what that was going to be and I think there was Great Hopes in Moscow that it would be you know some new new version of the former Soviet Union do you think that couldn't at that point saw the United States as a strategic threat or strategic enemy we've talked to people who said the US wasn't the one making the Soviet Union fall apart but do you think that's how he thought I think it's I think it's hard to know and um you know that was certainly how he was brought up right on uh you know the propaganda films of um you know the Soviet Union which you know he has written uh you know were hugely influential on him as a young boy and determined his first uh choice of of profession uh one that he frankly probably has never really left uh at least in in terms of his heart but I do think that there is probably a progression um I think that as he um you know it's it's quite clear that he did not approve of um you know many of the guidear yelts and policies in the very very early 90s um to try to bring about shock therapy to um to to Russia to um you know get the economy going on a market basis um and he I think he saw it as a humiliation where Russia was accepting um assistance from from the West not just the United States but but other countries as well the reason for that was Russia was requesting assistance it's not like we forced this on Russia um and you know we provided our best assistance and these were plans that were come that came together with with the Russian government and other other actors and um I think though that he felt that the effect on um on the Russian people was very difficult and I think anybody who was there in the early 90s and I I'm one of those people you know it was it was a really rough time because you have this transition but all the laws and the regulations to protect people and to make sure that things happen in not just a legal a technically legal way but a Fair Way um we're not in place and so you know kind of the strong and the ruthless were able to benefit greatly and little babushki on pensions you know were sometimes literally left on the street and that is something that you know was uh was it was a terrible thing um and I I I believe that that made a really profound impact on everybody uh including probably Putin I would note though that he was in the cohort of the strong and the ruthless he was an Insider so he could make those deals and profit personally from them and um you know I mean what we've seen over time not immediately but over time is the rise of the KGB state where the security um the security agencies not only became strong politically they became very strong economically too and and their leadership uh was very strong um you know handsomely benefited from from that period of time in this early years of Putin it seems like we're trying to figure out who he is whether he's a is he a reformer is he the former KGB agent the famous moment when George W bush says he looks into his eyes and he sees his soul in that early period what did Americans understand about and what did President Bush understand I mean were you surprised when you would hear something like that from President Bush well I was surprised by that particular quote I think probably most people were um but I think there was a hope um uh you know Yeltsin uh had been a good partner for the United States he I think wanted genuinely to bring his country to democracy to market economy because that was good for Russia we thought that was good for the United States as well and I think Yeltsin wanted to be you know a partner to the West now he was a deeply flawed man as um as many presidents are and um he was um you know obviously an alcoholic and made many mistakes along the way um and I think that somebody like Putin and those around him saw the relationship with the west and particularly with the United States as somehow humiliating to um to Russia what we saw as an attempt to build a partnership I think I I do believe that and saw it as something as something else that Russia was the junior partner but what we were trying to do in the 1990s was to bring Russia in into the fold of um the International Community um so you know Clinton invited Russia to become a G8 member the Russian economy was not the eighth largest economy in the world but in our attempt to you know bring Russia in and help Russia in this manage its own transition but also manage its relations overseas we wanted to um you know put Russia at the table so that Russia would understand the benefits of the rules-based international order that Russia would massively benefit from this as well and um you know and then in the 1990s it seemed like that was you know moving forward in a positive way you know NATO established a special nato-russia Council um Putin himself when he became president participated in that um several times and he certainly participated participated in the ga for many many many years um but I think that once Putin came to power um you know his old uh instincts shall we say kind of kicked in and while initially in the early years we were very hopeful that we would have a good partner in Putin that Russia would continue at the um you know to uh you know work in the family of Nations um you know the first thing he did was to consolidate his own power going after the oligarchs going after the Press etc etc then that bled over into international relations and I think that what we do sometimes is you know we you know foreign policy is essentially a hopeful business because you have to keep on hoping and you know working constructively to make those hopes a reality and that's what we were doing with an outstretched hand to Russia um over that time including uh you know many years of the Putin presidency um unfortunately Putin did not want to take that outstretched and as the color revolutions happened in 2003 2004 period is that a turning point in his understanding of the west or his attitude towards America I don't know if it's a turning point um it might be a turning point it might also be kind of a further consolidation of his views that we are up to no good in what you know they called and you just called the near abroad um you know this is Russia's backyard Russia believes in spheres of influence and so Putin found it profoundly threatening that um you know in Georgia Kyrgyzstan um there would be what were what came to be known as colored revolutions because if democracy can Prevail in countries uh geographically and in some in some instances historically close to uh to Russia then you know the question arises well maybe it can in Russia as well and there's also a personal element for Putin I believe where you know he sees the footage of uh leaders being run out of their country and of course um he he takes in some of those leaders and I think he he finds it you know not only politically for Russia threatening but personally I mean now he also talked about it in terms of Russian Empire and in terms of Russia's fear of influence and making Russia Great again is that part of it too that if these places sided with the West that his hopes of rebuilding Russian greatness were also a threat yeah I'm sure that's true and I should just going back to your previous question I should just also that because he doesn't respect these countries and their people um you know certainly in the case of Ukraine they're not a distinct people it's not a distinct culture or history according to Vladimir Putin How is it that there are revolutions there it must be because the West is putting those countries up to it when in fact you know nothing could be further from the truth uh you know we were catching up to events um you know just like just like everybody else was um because you know these were movements that were coming from the ground up and even you know if you talk to the people in Kyrgyzstan and Georgia and um in Ukraine they didn't know they were going to be successful until all of a sudden there was a Tipping Point and they were so um yeah I think it's a a mixture of things as you point out by the time you get to 2007 and that speech in Munich he sounds a lot like he sounds in 2022 when he's talking about the west and the Empire of lies and you said you write your book we did not fully understand Putin's words and the threat that they turned out to be what did you mean well I think you know it's ironic that um you know Putin was looking at the United States and perhaps to a greater extent to the West um as as somehow so focused on Russia and that we were a threat to to Russia that he would um you know make a speech like he did at Munich um because actually at least from my perspective in 2001 after 9 11 we completely dropped the ball on Russia you know we were completely focused on terrorism um you know it's hard to remember now but we weren't talking about if there would be another attack on the Homeland we were talking about when and so all resources uh flowed to the war on terror first there was Afghanistan then there was Iraq you know there's um other areas that that we're focused on as possible terrorist threats to to the United States and our partners and allies and um so that's where everything was focused so I think from our point of view there was almost I mean many people I think understood what Putin was saying um but I think um a lot of other people were like bemused almost because it was so far from the truth and you know all you needed to do was kind of assess where we were putting our attention and our resources um so it wasn't completely taken seriously and like I said you know we were completely focused on something else there wasn't a bandwidth to um you know to start regrouping and it didn't appear at least in 2007 that there was a need for that when the invasion of Georgia happens the end of the Bush Administration what's the message that's being sent by Vladimir Putin at that point well I think again this is my neighborhood you know what I want to hear um sakashvili fell into a trap uh and um it became clear that we were not well we provided lots and lots of economic assistance after the war we were not going to intervene militarily and I think you know Putin had probably made that assessment uh and he was correct in that assessment it's hard to know what would have happened if the Bush Administration had continued for another two or three years because what happened as you know is that Obama won the presidency and then there was the reset and that's not um so unusual um I think every Administration comes in wanting to reset relationships not just with Russia but with other countries that have been shall we say challenges or problematical and you know the old guys you know they didn't get it right but we are because again foreign policy we are an optimistic group that we're going to be able to do this the timing is better the personalities are different whatever we're going to do it through sheer gent of willpower and um so the Obama Administration came in and despite I think some reservations on the part of pretty prominent people they move forward with uh with with the reset and so the invasion of a Sovereign Nation of Georgia uh was kind of swept under the rug and you know I was surprised to find out that even the Bush Administration had not implemented sanctions um against Russia because of Georgia they didn't um you know there was some tisking and stuff like that and of course it was at the very end of the administration but there wasn't really any penalty for Russia's invasion of Georgia and then there was a new Administration and you know we tried to start all over again I hadn't thought about that that Invasion happens really right at the end of bush and that when Obama if he's going to do the reset he's not going to he can't put Georgia at the top of the agenda and so what we did is we we gave George a massive economic assistance massive um and um you know continue to help Georgia with its um you know Democratic and economic transitions um you know and for a while that that that worked I mean clearly Georgia has has a number of challenges right now but when you say there were reservations about the reset what were the reservations well I think the reservations are what we've been talking about that um Russia is an aggressive country you know exhibit one was Georgia um but that the clamping down um not to say repression of Russian society that was evident even in you know 2008 um and so you know that perhaps it shouldn't be business as usual with you know this big flashy uh Hillary Clinton and Sergey lavrov with the um reset button um which turns out it was the overload button we got the Russian word wrong but maybe we got it more right than we realized and Putin must have taken something from that I mean not just from the Obama Administration but from both from what the Fallout was or lack of thereof of Georgia yeah I think that with regard to Georgia I think what he took away from that is that yes there's going to be some complaints um but that the West doesn't care as much about you know George in other countries in that part of the world as the rhetoric might indicate that he can weather the the criticism and um and that's that's what he did and he you know he's a patient man I mean he'll he'll wait years um to continue to do what he he um he wants to do and I should also say you know since I'm sort of implicitly criticizing the reset here um that um after uh the reset there were some really positive things that happened in the U.S Russia relationship that were important to our national security and so I I don't want to gloss over that I mean you know the thing about foreign policy the thing about National Security is you know it it's it's never perfect and you have to uh you you have to you know kind of weigh the balance on how you want to move forward um but going back to your question about what he took from Georgia I think he he thought well I can get away with this and so then with Ukraine uh in 2014 uh I think it was you know that same calculation and you know the the guy who calls us the Empire of Lies you know throughout I mean it took him about a year to admit that the little green men in Crimea were Russian soldiers that sort of happened so quick and then puff um all of a sudden Crimea was annexed illegally by um by by the Russians um and then you saw what happened in the east in the Dom boss with this low-level war and we did apply sanctions um and we did apply um um a lot of political pressure and we kicked Putin out of the G8 um and there was some pain in the Russian economy um but mostly it you know I think Putin felt that he could weather that storm and that again um while we did provide military assistance we were also very clear with the ukrainians that they should not provoke Russia um which you know you hear in some circles today as well and you know from my point of view I mean who's provoking who here Russia invaded Ukraine if that isn't the biggest provocation ever I I don't know what is and you know countries have the right to do to you know defend themselves and to um retain their Sovereign territory when you say they're being told not to provoke Russia is that when you're there at the end of the Obama Administration is it that period that you're talking about um that's the only period I kind of really want to talk about because I I I only know that but yeah I mean I think we were telling the ukrainians to be very very careful um and um you know yeah so I want to talk to you about that in a little bit more detail but let me know and ask you about first was the message that sent when there's famous comments from President Obama about Russia being a regional power he talks to Mitt Romney and he says you know the 1980s called and they want their foreign policy back what was the message that Obama was sending was he wrong on that how was that being perceived by President Putin well I think you know what we know about President Putin is that he's a proud man who sees Russia as a great nation um uh and and wants to expand it into the great Empire uh that it was once was and um you know I think those remarks were um seen as belittling uh Russia and I don't think President Putin liked it at all and was it a mistake I mean there was a focus about we're going to shift to Asia and we're going to focus on there's lots going on and there's the wrong deal and other things but was it a mistake to lose focus on Russia if that's what happened at the highest levels of the White House um so I would just note that when the Biden Administration came in there was also that same you know we're going to focus on Asia um and and I I think you know the United States is a great power we are now I think at a time of uh International transition and so the role of the United States um is is changing as other countries and I'm not only talking about Russia and China but you know there are many um many countries that are clamoring for a seat at the table and so um I think the role of the United States is changing um you know Bill Burns um who is now of course the the head of the CIA he calls it um the U.S becoming the pivotal power I mean the maybe not the one superpower but the power that um you know kind of determines the direction that International Affairs are going in and so as we um you know as we make that transition we are going to continue to need to be paying attention to all parts of the world we need to you know have the depth to be able you know whether it's militarily whether it's whether it's diplomatically whether it's economically to be able to deal with China to be able to deal with Russia to be able to deal with other countries I mean that is critically important and um yeah I mean I would just say that we didn't make that full transition in the Obama years um and um you know hopefully we are doing it now the invasion of Crimea happens the war in the East is starting you become Ambassador there's a debate inside the administration I don't know if it's resolved by the time you're involved with it or not about decent jafflins to Ukraine we've heard now that President Biden was on one side of the debate and President Obama made a decision on the other side what was that debate about and why was that important so I got to Ukraine in August of 2016. um so that was at the very tail end of of the Obama years and it was no longer really a um an active discussion because the president had made his decision and we were not going to be sending javelins to to Ukraine now I think he was you know presidents get to have their own foreign policy but I think he was in a real minority in terms of the National Security leadership that this was the right way to go so the issue was resurrected in the um in the Trump years and it took about about a year for Trump to finally sign off on the first shipment of javelins and then um you know they were they were delivered and so what would that be um in in in 2018 and were you supportive in this debate starting in the Obama years going into the Trump years of providing these kinds of weapons yes what was the argument that you and others were making um I thought it was important um you know by the time I became um a participant in these discussions javelins had taken on this symbolic value far greater than their use in the field if you can believe that because when javelins were first so to speak put on the table in 2014 2015 is something we we could or should provide to the ukrainians it was a tank battle so javelins obviously are anti-tank missiles so they would have been very helpful at that time by the time I got to Ukraine it was a different kind of a battle um president poroshenko every time we met with him would say um you know our greatest casualties are coming from snipers it was a sniper war it was you know sort of it you know there were no longer Russian tanks advancing into Ukraine so javelin's at that particular moment in time uh were were perhaps not the most critical piece of equipment that we could send to the ukrainians but they taken on the symbolic value of you know does the U.S really have Ukraine's back and so for that reason I supported them I'm really glad that they got there because as we have seen in 2022 they were hugely hugely helpful as have the additional supplies that we have sent most Vice President Biden's role in Ukraine we've heard that he goes there a lot over the last two years of the Obama Administration in his meeting what is Joe Biden's role is he taking charge of policy towards Ukraine how involved is he yeah he was very very involved and and again I can only speak um personally from you know kind of the last four or five months of the administration um but he was the point person um you know he had um he was the one who was um leading on policy efforts now you know President Obama was still in charge as we've just discussed the javelin decision um but you know there are many parts of our foreign policy that don't you know reach um the uppermost levels and or the uppermost level and um President Biden was the person who I think had been assigned the Ukraine file and was coordinating it you know on all the different levels economic assistance energy security assistance Etc et cetera and he had very frequent calls um with president poroshenko to encourage him you know to to move forward and to move forward in um in a positive direction it must have really shaped the way he approaches it now because he knows people he knows the area probably in a way that most presidents wouldn't understand I think that's true and if you look at the people who are um most involved in Ukraine policy today in this Administration they were also involved um you know back in the day in the Obama Administration as well and so I think that has shaped how everybody first and foremost the president but also other people are responding did he view it did you view it at the time in the existential terms that people talk about now when they say this is about democracy this is about authoritarianism this is about the rule of law or was this really dealing with practical problems in Ukraine was there that type of existential talk um no um at least I was not privy to those conversations if they took place um it seemed that Russia's goals were more modest shall we say although still completely wrong and objectionable so Russia took Crimea Russia took parts of the Dom boss but um it seemed to me that what Russia wanted was to create this instability in Ukraine with the war going on in the East so it didn't often make U.S headlines but um you know two or three people died every week you know sometimes civilians sometimes soldiers that is a drain on a nation I mean they were the internally displaced people that you know we hear we hear so much about now well that was going on in Ukraine for all of those years as well where communities just absorbed the idps um and Russia was mounting cyber attacks there was just all sorts of disinformation there were assassinations of leadership in Kiev as well as in other places very targeted um and so I think all of that plus you know a live actual hot war in the middle of Europe was destabilizing to Ukraine and um made it um more challenging for the leadership to um to accomplish its aspirations like EU membership and poroshenko at least was in favor of NATO membership at that time most ukrainians were not thanks to Vladimir Putin's reinvasion of Ukraine of course now all ukrainians are in favor of both NATO and EU membership how profound was the change when Donald Trump was elected here on the ground there could you sense a change in either policy or message or how America was perceived vis-a-vis especially vis-a-vis Russia um so I think there was a lot of concern in Ukraine uh when Donald Trump was elected president in November of 2016 because of some of the comments he had made that you know Crimea is Russia I think that made people nervous also his um his comments on foreign assistance uh generally not not uh with regard to Ukraine because the U.S was the single most important partner for Ukraine not only in terms of you know our training and assistance program on the security side but also on the economic assistance side and and politically I mean we supported Ukraine in international fora and so forth and so I think there was great concern in Ukraine that um when President when when Trump became president that he would change the policy um you know as as it turned out he never did officially change the policy I mean we had an interagency review I mean not at the presidential level but you know by the Trump people in February and basically they blessed the same policy that had you know not that anybody presented it as such but it was the same policy as um as during the Obama years um and then later on once president Trump made the decision about javelins I actually felt that our policy had been strengthened we were watching him I mean there's policies going on at two levels one is the actual policy of America and then there's another which you must be watching for example Trump right before I go to hell pinky he goes to Brussels and he dressed it down Secretary General stoltenberg he's very critical of NATO what are you thinking at a moment like that especially his criticisms of NATO in a very public way it was shocking uh it was shocking and it was um disruptive and it was not helpful to treat our allies uh in in that manner as it happened um I was uh in Odessa at that time we had a a big multi-nation exercise in the Black Sea and so you know a lot of the brass from our military was there and um you know I actually watched the Helsinki press conference with Trump and uh and and Putin from my hotel hotel room in um in in Odessa after a long day of military exercises where it's all about you know Ukraine the United States and all the other partner Nations working together on the security side and you know then to watch that it was it was it was again it was shocking and um I was glad that we were able to say in Ukraine look at what we're doing what we're doing is providing security assistance and most recently we had um you know the the head of U.S U.S forces in Europe with us down in Odessa to you know kick off these exercises that is what we are tangibly doing to provide support for Ukraine I don't know how much you were privy to what president Trump was saying and how much of it was public and how much was it private but he's describing Ukraine certainly in his private conversations as basically a totally corrupt country that he certainly doesn't frame it in terms of the country struggling for democracy and for Independence what was the effect of how president Trump saw Ukraine and did were you perceiving that at the time well in June of 2018 so fairly early on in in the Trump presidency he made in a um uh or his people made an arrangement to meet with Putin in the summer of 2018 and um you know we of course had for our part and Ukraine had been pushing for a meeting with president poroshenko and I think when the Putin meeting got set in place smart people in Washington decided that this would indeed be a very good idea a little inoculation and um in that meeting Trump sort of came out and said it towards the end of the meeting to poroshenko that um Ukraine was a very corrupt country and I have to say um you know porchenko did a good job of Defending uh Ukraine I mean the thing is corruption exists in all countries including the United States and it certainly exists in Russia so if the big issue is corruption then you would think that President Trump would have had equal reservations about dealing with Russia I don't think that was the core of the issue and was it undermining support for Ukraine or Ukraine strength or perceived strength well I think um so it made the UK was nervous all the time um you know uh foreign policy institutions like the state department defense department um others uh wonder whether there might be at some future time a change in our policy if that never happened when I was Ambassador but it created this element of uncertainty because even though the policy stayed the same it was clear where you know the president's heart was shall we say um and um I think that that made the ukrainians very nervous because if they lost U.S support that would have been pretty devastating for the Ukrainian for the Ukrainian cause um even you know back in 2018 before Russia reinvaded but I think it also provided sucker and um support for President Putin and his own views of Ukraine and and what he might be able to get away with there before your house did if that's the right word did you have a sense that policy was changing or that Aid was being held up or that the policy towards Ukraine was changing uh no I didn't um because I think some of the events that you're referring to with regard to the security assistance happened um months after I left Ukraine but you didn't have any indication at that point that on a policy basis things were changing the relationship was changing No in fact we were working I'm can't remember exactly where we were but we have javelins to Crane and so what happens what happens to you in the middle of this how do you hear that the white house isn't happy with you well I I heard it from ukrainians first that um that you know former mayor Giuliani was working with some ukrainians that they were in Ukraine that they were also working with I should say ukrainian-american citizens um that they were working with the general prosecutor lucenko who wanted me out because we had you know we were pushing for reform and and he was not um and so um you know I mean I heard this um and I would go back to Washington but of course I was going to official Washington I wasn't going to Rudy Giuliani to sort this out and official Washington was basically saying you know don't worry about this you know there's nothing to it and in fact in early March of 2019 I was asked to extend by another year so so even as there were these rumors on the one hand of you know various people particularly Giuliani but not only trying to to remove me um there there was also the state department asking me to stay on um so it was uh quite confusing shall we say and what I tried to do I mean what I tried to do was just do my job you know because it's kind of hard to sort through all of that and as you discover what's actually going on how do you describe it is it they basically decided that politics was more important than the United States foreign policy how would you describe what the president what his allies were doing and how they were treating Ukraine right so um just to review the timeline I mean I realized that this was serious towards the end of March um I was told I had to leave immediately in at the end of April and which I did and then I went back to pack out and left permanently on May 20th I learned about what was going on you know kind of in real time along with the American public and journalists and people who were digging into all of these things you know the release of the transcript of the perfect phone call and and the release of The Whistleblower uh report I mean I saw all of that at the same time as everybody else did and so when I was being removed during those several months I I didn't know any of the things that were moving forward so just to clarify for people I mean and now that you do know the president and his allies what was their approach towards Ukraine foreign policy towards the election what's the big picture of what they were doing well I think the big picture is that President Trump um you know in exhibit a is the perfect phone call that he was using Ukraine um using our you know U.S government assistance security assistance to a partner country for his own personal and political um game he was willing you know the U.S government Congress had authorized this because we thought it was you know good for Ukraine but first and foremost because it was in our national security interests to be helping Ukraine defend itself and um Trump was willing to hold that in abeyance until he got you know a favor though from president zielinski the American people deserve better um we we deserve a president who will um you know preserve and protect the United States and defend the American people and what we saw was a president who was ready to undermine the Constitution undermine the security of the American people for his own game I mean for Vladimir Putin who has said American talk of democracy and standing by allies is hypocritical it's all about self-interest it's just talk I mean what does a moment like that do for him I think it emboldens him why because I think you know Vladimir Putin has a pretty negative view about the United States about our society he thinks it's a a weak and profligate and um you know lacks morals uh kind of a society unlike unlike Russia and um he thinks that you know as you just stated we talk big about our values but when it comes down to you know we're no better than anybody else and that's what Russia keeps on trying to push out there that okay you know I mean not that they say the first part okay we may be bad um they just say you know everybody it's all relative everybody does it and you know look at what the US is doing and I think you know that phone call really demonstrated uh What uh what Putin had been saying and what other dictators had been saying about the United States when you see your name in that phone call and bad news and the way you're described what is your reaction uh it was um it was physical actually I was um teaching a class at Georgetown University uh and when I read when I read the text um somebody in the room said that my face actually went white because you know I had already been removed from my position as ambassador extremely unusual presidents do have the right to appoint ambassadors and to remove them but they don't usually do it accompanied by a smear campaign because there's no reason for a smear campaign you just remove the Ambassador so people knew that something else was going on who were paying attention um and so when I saw that transcript I thought what else um you know he he said I was bad news but he also said she's going to go through some things and I thought what else does he have in mind um and I didn't know and that was you know this is the most powerful man in the world saying that I'm going to go through some things after I've already been you know for all intents and purposes fired my last question about the Trump period is why didn't Putin push Ukraine harder why didn't this happen What happens in The Vineyards Why didn't it do you have a thought on why it didn't happen during the Trump years yeah so I would make two points the first is that um Putin was building a bridge across the Kirch Straits which um connected Crimea with Mainland Russia and so he had been doing that throughout the Trump years and it was completed in the Trump years and then in um November of 2018 uh right over the um right over the Thanksgiving weekend Russian vessels actually Russian State vessels um uh fired on Ukrainian vessels in international waters and then towed them to to Russia so you know that was um you know an escalation uh you know in terms of the naval domain now they were working in the naval domain and it was also the first time that Russia right off the bat said yes these are our warships and we take responsibility for this action and so that happened under Trump's watch and usually what would happen with something like this is um this happened you know in the U.S on a Sunday the Sunday after Thanksgiving so not great timing but even in most administrations what would happen is there would be you know an immediate statement a phone call you know to lavrov or to the Minister of Defense you know Stand Down Russia um and you know release these vessels in international water because these these kinds of actions take time you know it was hours and hours before the Russians got the order to tow these these vessels is in and we did nothing the Europeans you know issued all sorts of statements but we did nothing and um you know in Reading John Bolton's book it became clear that he felt he had to help hold up any kind of constructive action on our part because the president wasn't sure whether maybe the ukrainians weren't somehow in the wrong so I mean I think all of that sends a message to Putin that he he can do whatever he wants but I think here's the other thing in that case he he did use the instrument of of War um for for his purposes um but he's getting pretty much everything he needs from president Trump um he's getting um you know uh sort of the smackdown of NATO the humiliation of our best allies I mean the list goes on and on and on and you know it's clear that while maybe the policy hasn't changed um with regard to Ukraine with regard to Russia that maybe over time it might under a president Trump and so I think that Putin um was probably betting on a second term of President Trump and hoping that he could get his way on many things whether it's NATO whether it's Ukraine without using the instrument of War what was the Biden's approach to Putin in his first month only what was he doing um well I you know I I'm not sure I have the granularity that you're looking for but I think um you know as we discussed before the Biden Administration was if not wanting to make a pivot um to Asia very focused on China uh and you know what was uh what was coming up uh with with uh with China and then there was um you know the meeting between um Biden and Putin and I think it was June of uh um I guess that would be 2021 and you know I think it was a workman-like meeting where I think Biden was hoping to sort of lay the path forward um you know but they didn't have a joint press conference um perhaps we're calling the Trump Putin press conference I don't know but um they you know it wasn't shall we say a warm kind of meeting of the minds um sort of a summit but you know it seemed that the path forward was going to be a relatively constructive one um and then you know Putin started building up in um I think it was September of 2021 and you know over over the months um you know there was a lot of men in material 200 000 almost men um that were completely encircling Ukraine and so it was evident that maybe we were not on that constructive path forward and so the Biden Administration pulled together you know countries and partners allies to start supporting Ukraine I get the sense from talking to people who know Biden that his belief was I don't have any Illusions about Putin I don't think I can see into his soul he's a killer but he's maybe somebody if we understand that we can work with but maybe Putin by that point in his presidency wasn't somebody who could be deterred in the traditional ways do you think that Putin had changed by that point and that that he wasn't as susceptible to the traditional diplomacy the warnings the threats maybe I mean you know he'd been in office two decades um you know it's clear from what we've seen about how he um how he manages his um even his most senior partners and Associates uh that you know he is in charge that he's probably not getting the best information on nobody's gained saying him and saying hey boss you know that might be a you know strategic miscalculation over here and I think you know it wasn't only about Biden who knows what kind of an impression Biden made on Putin then we have Afghanistan the withdrawal from Afghanistan which um I think all over the world was seen as um you know poorly handled and a sign of waning U.S power shortly after that Putin actually starts the the the build up and you know in Europe um the stars are changing in in um or realigning in Europe as well with Angela Merkel leaving the scene um Boris Johnson in the UK you know enough said there French elections coming up with uh the possibility of a really hard right turn and I think you know he looked at all of that and he made a calculation that Biden would not be able to lead an international group of countries to support Ukraine and that there wouldn't be the will to support Ukraine um and that it even if it was there in the beginning it would not continue and I think he miscalculated he miscalculates the cranians fight back how dangerous is this moment where he is now you know he's making nuclear threats he's bet an awful lot on this domestically and and internationally how dangerous a moment is it that we're in right now I think it's a very dangerous moment I think that uh it's a dangerous moment for Ukraine I think it's a dangerous moment for Russia but I think it's a dangerous moment for other countries in the world as well because it's hard to see what the pathway forward is um you know the Russians are doubling down because they're losing and in order to extricate themselves if they are even willing to extricate themselves and that is an open question for me but in order to extricate themselves um they need to have a better situation on the ground they need to be winning right um and then that will put them in a good position for eventual negotiations the ukrainians are also doubling down because they are winning but even more importantly because this is an existential struggle for Ukraine I mean Putin has made clear and those around him have made clear that they do not see ukrainians as the distinct people and culture that they do not believe Ukraine is a country of its own and that it you know should be reabsorbed back into Russia if the ukrainians lose they lose everything and so they are not going to give up and so you know you have these two opposing forces and so the question is what does the outside world do I would argue that you know we need to step very carefully but we also really don't have a choice because if we say we're not going to support Ukraine even though that's the right thing to do we're not going to do that because Vladimir Putin is threatening nuclear the nuclear option or whatever other outrageous thing he's going to do um that is not going to solve the issue he will just take Ukraine and he will keep on going and we will be threatened in ways that are even closer to our most vital National Security concerns so um you know we we have an option I suppose we can confront and I use the word confront advisedly but we can help Ukraine prevail now or we confront Russia at some later date but that could come at a time you know that Russia chooses um and at a time that is not necessarily advantageous to the United States so this is um you know what the military would call a wicked problem I mean like what is the solution because there are so many different impacts and effects and you know just yesterday we we saw the Russians um allegedly sabotage their own pipelines to ensure that there would be no no gas supplies to Europe and to create an environmental disaster in in the Baltic Sea I mean all sorts of unexplainable and unimaginable things are happening right now and so we need to we need to come together I think first and foremost and we need to stand firm because on the one hand this is a very dangerous moment and I don't want to Discount that Vladimir Putin isn't completely capable of using a least tactical nuclear weapons but on the other hand I think the only thing that we can do is to stand firm you know tell him publicly and privately that this is not really an option for Russia in terms of getting um you know to where they want to get and standing firm and supporting Ukraine uh it's it's um it's a dangerous time but I comfort Myself by thinking back to the Cold War where we also had a number of standoffs with the then Soviet Union and yet somehow um we were able to continue forward and find a way to avert the worst and so um even though this is in some ways the greatest challenge I think of of my lifetime in terms of international Affairs I'm hopeful that we can find our way forward to averting the worst disasters

Channel: FRONTLINE PBS | Official

Views: 624,610

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Id: XHP8n2HL0Eo

Length: 60min 10sec (3610 seconds)

Published: Wed Feb 01 2023