Prashant Kishor With Rajdeep Sardesai LIVE On Lok Sabha Elections 2024 , PM Modi & I.N.D.I.Alliance

ghi allows somebody else to run the Congress if he's not running the Congress because look at but he is running the Congress he's running the Congress but he's not saying that he's running the Congress that is the problem look at whoever is advising them this could be the worst time for you to leave headquarters and go for a yatra yatra was to be done maybe 6 month a year before two year before now is the time when you should be meeting with your strategic allies you need to raise resources you need to finalize your candidates you need to firefight on daily basis when you are needed at headquarter you are in field when you were needed to be in field they were then you were sitting in Delhi I don't know who advises them just imagine you are losing a key Ally in Bihar whether he it's worth his name or not that's a different thing but he was a key Ali rather than being on the ground sorting that issue out somebody like Congress president Mr Malik Arjun k I read his statement he said I'm hearing the report well I will reach Delhi and then I will figure it out what is happened when the deal is already done he is the next day by the time K reaches Mr K reaches Delhi nsh Kumar is swearing up swearing there as a BJP chief minister or ND chief minister so what I'm saying is this is the Strategic common sensical thinking you do not leave the the commander of the army you don't go to the field when you have to be on the headquarter are you saying Rahul Gandhi should step aside or are you saying that Rahul Gandhi should be clear that if you are going to be the commander act like a commander not be on a yatra at a time like this be at the headquarters managing because I you and I know that no decision will happen when nothing important will move in Congress unless rul Gandhi approves it and when you need that minute to minute involvement and his decision making his opinion he is in Manipur nagaland he is in uh in yatra I don't think this is a the best best use of his time so what I'm saying is he has to be clear it's not about whether he's a prime minister face or he's the campaign manager he's running I you know I I read you your Tweet only if you are doing this yatra a solo yatra then this is the worst time to do a solo yatra then it should have been an India yatra it should not have been a Congress yatra and if you're doing a congress yatra then forget about in the India you know because you've often said that and many believe now that Indian elections have become presidential 2014 2019 general elections are increasingly about B pranant leadership contest would the India Alliance pitching a nitish Kumar a few months ago or a Malik Arjun K now or even a Rahul Gandhi would that make any difference or that's not really this question on Mr kge and my answer was whoever you pitch be decisive be clear look at the name proposal v m with regards to Mr K two allies proposed his name he in the same meeting said yes and literally backed out his own party did not offer a single formal statement to it so before getting into Merit whether Mr K announcement of Mr K as a prime minister face would add value or not you have to first realize that whether you are making the announcement or you're not making the announcement so this indecision is killing them do you believe even now is it too late now indecision that whether Rahul Gandhi is running Congress or Mr K running Congress is Mr Rahul going to be the Prime Minister face or somebody else if he doesn't want to be the Prime Minister let it be said in those many words by himself nobody than him that I'm not the candidate whoever is decided no but do you believe that the India Alli should have a face even now I I I still go back and say if if they have a face definitely it will add value definitely you know the reason I'm not having a face is not going to give them any advantage the reason I'm asking you this is because while the India Alliance appears in disarray as you said perception wise certainly the BJP on the other hand seems to have got an extra dose of energy they seem to be even more energized than they were before 2019 because of the Ram uh Mand consecration ceremony do you believe that has now pushed Mr Modi onto another level even compared to 2014 and 19 because now it's Ram it's labari and it's hind no I don't think Ram Mand thing is going to add a great deal of new vote to BJP if it certainly has enthused the bjp's rank and file it has given something to chat and feel good about uh to the voters but I do not see this event of ram Mand bringing them new votes if there is anything it is it has certainly Consolidated their vote the vote is again the vote this time is definitely for the Mr Modi or against him it's not about Ram Mand no what is the bjp's US in 2024 is it Ram is it Modi or is it vixit bhat it's it's Modi and RAM vixit bhat larti hinda everything is now subservient to this brand Modi what is brand Modi what is this secret Source because you worked with him what is the secret source of this brand Modi how is brand Modi in 2024 different to the brand Modi that you worked with in 2014 well Mr modi's strength is that he evolves so and he he whole agenda also evolves every 5 year so in 2002 he's he was the Hindu H samrat by 2007 he became this able administrator who could bring development to uh Gujarat by 2014 he uh he evolved as somebody who can change India by 2019 he evolved is somebody who can bring great pride and courage and uh conviction in the story of India by 2024 he is position being positioned as somebody who has brought Ram back to this country that is how he has evolved and everything what they do is is subservient to this Evolution so the The Cult of Modi now is even bigger than that of the BJP people are voting for Modi not the BJP definitely no goes goes without saying I'm not saying they are not voting for BJP but I'm saying a bulk of the vote that is coming their way Modi is the major decisive factor is the Delta how will you respond to those who will say that you go to the field and many uh contesting uh MPS would concede this that but for Modi they would find it very difficult to win with the same track record with same Hindu with same Ram Mand aoria with same labari model just remove Modi many MP candidates of BJP would find it difficult to win because in 2019 interestingly csds postp survey showed that one in every three people who had voted for the BJ BP had voted because they said they wanted to vote for Mr Modi so in a sense without Mr Modi the BJP is not the dominant Force you're saying it's like it's like imagining Congress in 1980 without indraa Gandhi you're likening you you're saying Mr Modi today is in the same space that M Mrs Indira Gandhi was in 1980 he is Indira Gandhi of BJP he's the Indira Gandhi of BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner yeah politically speaking he is his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on ideology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you use the Indira Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections are fought uh by not be like by both side but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for Inda Gandhi same way people are voting directly but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr Modi is drawing on a mix of state of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND he had this Charisma and you know the control over State Machinery as we call it in totality be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen uh a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be saying 70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 356 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have SE it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has gripped the opposition that everybody the system is against us today I I I I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free Ed CBI free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary and entire system was under you how did you came to 45 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused these powers that you have they have misused STI to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI ma election machinery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these Powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years no prashan the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president has gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this issue AR krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do say between 2014 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel a lot you would hear many common people saying common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for Mr Modi in the general election same voter who may have voted for mam banerji in Bengal two three years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vidan SAA and loab and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr modi's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the bjp's under performance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vidhan SAA only 3 percentage Point BJP vote share was 3% Point lower than the Lo SAA between 2014 to 2019 now the underperformance in vihan SAA for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP it is that much more difficult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that was earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people are not taking Mr Mod's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 20149 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mentioned how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats is starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in north in Bihar bjp's vote sh is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal urisa telengana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti BJP uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four key anti BJP uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then these 200 MPS who anyway are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment but it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult it's very difficult impossible and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trips Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madya Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to Carol look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on telengana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here at this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% vote so B while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west invest in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is growing at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these Estates like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free rasan is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupes pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in biar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or Ura you have to be in their shes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education a GDP growth this that they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in Bihar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to do if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad nshar in a way nitish Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mines more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as s ible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for biar because all they were interested in that with the help of Lau Yad get some 20 25 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing vij V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that biar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nitish Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from but do you believe that based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like a nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or are Regional parties here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah so I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if kcr is a was a is a orinal party he clined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast census is going to be the second mundle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again Cas Thing Once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it Nies Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factor fa s but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up biar today in up and biar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and biar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is vh/ Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the Kamar Namar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi vers say Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dynast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi's this has they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric po Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know 5 years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 20 30 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clarify this doesn't mean that I lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be def defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the poity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form what new form ideologically the CH one side is this right right to right to center and another is the left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which still is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that you know you remember 2 three years back we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 20 30 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party status is not same as being a National Force National political force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jang and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came repositioned thems at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force oppose opposing the bjp's ideology and what BJP represents in a way you are offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the course not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of center I'm saying that in this country left of center space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re positions they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where do you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vians SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and nitish may finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in biar for last two years I have not I I'm not I'm I'm not planning to go biar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday two years I have left everything and I stationed in biar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in be coming from Bihar in their Assembly Election not in the Lok saaba but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the vidan SAA election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 2024 loksabha is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place in the next few years if I'm in opposition space I would fight with all the might the Lok saaba but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the saaba beat Maharashtra beat harana beat Bihar from today from today not after Lok SAA but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose loksabha then 3 months they will go in oblivian then comes the bhansa election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is loksabha you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall in 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal elections you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading towards single party democracy now you're telling me multi-party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian demo you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose Loa elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's it multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win loksabha don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win L SAA but you have enough opport opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank you for having me thank you hello and welcome to this India Today special after nitish Kumar's gapy yet again in Bihar the dark clouds hanging over the himon Surin government in and the recent defeat of the Congress to the BJP in the Hindi Heartland States most political observers are saying that the 2024 general elections are a done deal for Narendra Modi and the BJP are the general elections of formality does the opposition still have a chance of making a comeback who better to answer that than the country's Ace political strategist now a political activist with the Jan surj movement that he has set up in bear joining us now the one and only Prashant Kishore appreciate you're joining us Prashant thank you uh after the fall or should I say the reemergence of nitish Kumar in a new AAR this time back in the NDA the general consensus is that 2024 is a done deal do you go along with that that nitish Kumar's decision has virtually spr made 2024 a done deal uh yes and no because see nitish Kumar per se him being part of the opposition block was not that big a deal first of all because on his own he was not bringing something that would have turned the table but perception wise yes there was at least those who believed in the opposition's strength or the new formation called India they thought him as one of the key allies or key component of this new formation uh BJP by taking him back to my mind has gone for a strategy what what we what one would say uh losing a losing a war for losing a battle to win a war uh because in Bihar per se BJP is not going to give any advantage to BJP but in terms of perception Countrywide yes no but the fact is let's be honest now that the BJP has nitish Kumar with it they have chak paswan with it it appears that the opposite is decimated in be a state where the BJP won 39 out of 40 seats last time so the BJP seems to have virtually you know Domin will now dominate Bihar no actually not if you look at the Hard data in 2014 BJP fought on its own with the Allies like chak paswan at that time ramas paswan G and they won more than 32 seats in last general elections BJP won 17 not 39 the the alliance with Alliance they won 9 this time around with uh Niti not being what he used to be in 2014 or 2019 BJP and the India Alliance anyway was doing pretty well so I don't think BJP has taken nitish Kumar back to add seats in Bihar in fact if you look at carefully bjp's own number is going to be less in Bihar after taking nitish Kumar because they will be fighting less number of seats so why did BJP opt for this they opted for exactly where you started this interview that in terms of perception nitish was seen as somebody who is bringing together all part who brought everyone together to build this India Alliance so by taking one of the Architects out of it BJP has given a severe psychological blow to the opposition not in material terms in material terms nitish does not nitis leaving is not going to matter much in fact it's going to reduce bjp's number and in as elections BJP is going to pay the price for this but they have opted for it knowingly because they want to win the war maybe lose the battle in behalf no in a sense it seems that the BJP has decided that 2024 up bar Char par you see they psychologically intimidating the opposition would you agree that all of this therefore the per part of psychological thing it that's what I'm trying to tell you it's not a tangible gain for BJP it's a psychological blow to the opposition but it's not as much the tangible gain for BJP as much the psychological blow to the opposition but many will say that the opposition in any case Prashant has not really taken off this India Alliance has not taken off so that's what I'm trying to tell you that any which way it's not that with n on with India that they were doing very well BJP was any way in the lead position with this new thing they have given a psychological blow to the all effort which was built around India lands so so why do you think this India Alliance is not taken off why do you think is it because each leader of this India Alliance is restricted to his or her own state has no chemistry Nationwide they don't have a narrative beyond anti- modismos the whole initiative came too late they started only last year June July now it any sensible person whether it is NI or Rahul Stalin anyone you might think how the seat adjustment would be what the narrative would be but everyone knew that there is an election in 2024 what prevented these leaders to form the same Alliance say a year back just imagine if they would have done the same thing in 2021 or 2022 they would have got two years to sort out their differences they would have got two years to decide the seat sharing they would have got two years to reach to people build a narrative and would not have given a free run to BJP or NDA to build and play on their strength so you don't think it has anything to do with the fact that they didn't make nitish Kumar the convenor of the alliance none of that makes a difference you just think that they got their act together too late too late because in six or eight or nine months in a country as big as India when you are up against a very organized Force electoral force of BJP you don't stand much a chance I always say that anything and everything can be managed but for the time I give an example in 2019 results Loa results Didi got a setback in Bengal so did Congress in Assam in Bengal within two months of Lok SAA we started the counter TMC started the counter they looked at what what went wrong they worked on their organization they built their narrative and by 2021 in May TMC lit gained everything what they lost to BJP in fact they gained a bit more than what they thought compare that to what Congress did in Assam they also lost but they did nothing they started building the mahag gatab bandhan and all their effort in Assam 3 months before the election so obviously 3 months was not enough so is is the Congress then the elephant in the room that so long as the Congress doesn't revive or get its act together this whole opposition plank simply will not take off yes because they are the one who are fighting on 300 seats and I always say that unless there is strike rate even forget about India what happen to India today just look at if Congress is fighting 250 OD seat if they win 30% of those seats if congress's strike rate is 30% then BJP number the NDA number would be closer to 250 220 than 320 330 it's as simple as this forget about everything else let's Congress deliver one third on one third of the seats which they are fighting the game will will change but they are not able to their strike rate is in low single digit that's right but they their strike rate against BJP a lot of people do not pay attention if Congress has won 50 seats they have not won against BJP they have won against communist in Carol they have won in against a DMK in Tamil Nadu they have won against akalis in Punjab they have not won anything against BJP so the moment their strike rate against BJP goes 25 30% even if it is 25 % you will see the balance coming to this opposition and ruling sure because most of these seats are in north and west both of these uh both most of these Congress versus BJP fights have been in north and and and West India and in both 2014 and 2019 the BJP demolished them there so do you see any Prospect of the Congress Reviving or do you believe that is as I called it the kamor Ki or the elephant in the room then unless the Congress revives nothing's going to change on the ground I wouldn't say there I would just put it differently unless somebody breaks into the North and the West frontiers of BJP they are not coming down and when I say somebody it means if aes's party were to Break um say BJP in up and they win 30 40 50 seat it's a big blow to BJP if luu Yad can defeat T can defeat BJP in Bihar that's another 20 25 seats if somebody if sharat Paar and UD takre defeats BJP in Maharashtra then even without Congress BJP will be brought to like 200 closer to 200 but the problem is unless Congress and plus these three big Regional allies unless they get their act because it's not only Congress who a strike rate against BJP is in single digit same is the case with SP just look at their track record in 2014 a A's party SP has won only five MP when they fought in Alliance with bsp still they got only five so if unless SP number goes up BJP is bound to get 60 70 seats in up same thing in in uh for example Bihar it's not only Congress the rjd seat in Bihar is zero so it's not only for BJP same goes for udav takre and Sarat Paar unless these four five key players in north and west who are taking BJP headon their strike rate goes to 25 30% there is no it's very difficult how you're going to defeat BJP now you know many believe that part of the problem also is Rahul Gandhi himself he's gone on a bhat n yatra earlier bat J yatra now a bhat n yatra and many say that unless Rahul Gandhi in a way says I am not the prime ministerial candidate the BJP will make it again Modi versus Rahul in some way and that will put the opposition into a trap you agree with that that it is necessary for the Congress to say that Rahul Gandhi isn't our prime minister candidate and throw up someone else possik I I think it's not necessary what is necessary is that Rahul Gandhi allows somebody else to run the Congress if he's not running the Congress because look at but he is running the Congress he's running the Congress but he's not saying that he's running the Congress that is the problem look at whoever is advising them this could be the worst time for you to leave headquarters and go for a yatra yatra was to be done maybe 6 month a year before two year before now is the time when you should be meeting with your strategic allies you need to raise resources you need to finalize your candidates you need to firefight on daily basis when you are needed at headquarter you are in field when you were needed to be in field they were then you were sitting in Delhi I don't know who advises them just imagine you are losing key Ali in Bihar whether he it's worth his name or not that's a different thing but he was a key Ali rather than being on the ground sorting that issue out somebody like Congress president Mr Malik Arjun Kar I read his statement he said I'm hearing the report well I will reach Delhi and then I will figure it out what is happened when the deal is already done he is the next day by the time K reaches Mr K reaches Delhi nsh Kumar is swearing up swearing there as a BJP chief or n chief minister so what I'm saying is this is the Strategic common sensical thinking you do not leave the the commander of the army you don't go to the field when you have to be on the head are you saying rul Gandhi should step aside or are you saying that Rahul Gandhi should be clear that if you are going to be the commander act like a commander not be on a yatra at a time like this be at the headquartering because I you and I know that no decision will happen when nothing important will move in Congress unless Rahul Gandhi approves it and when you need that minute to minute involvement and his decision making his opinion he is in Manipur nagaland he is in in yatra I don't think this is the best best use of his time so what I'm saying is he has to be clear it's not about whether he's a prime minister face or he's the campaign manager he's running I you know I I read your Tweet only if you are doing this yatra a solo yatra then this is the worst time to do a solo yatra then it should have been an India yatra it should not have been a Congress yatra and if you are doing a congress yatra then forget about in the India you know because you've often said that and many believe now that Indian elections have become presidential 2014 2019 general elections are increasingly about k b pradan leadership contest would the India Alliance pitching a nitish Kumar a few months ago or a Malik Arjun K now or even a Rahul Gandhi would that make any difference or that's not really the is anymore question on Mr K and my answer was whoever you pitch be decisive be clear look at the name proposal v m with regards to Mr K two allies proposed his name he in the same meeting said yes and literally backed out his own party did not offer a single formal statement to it so before getting into Merit whether Mr K announcement of Mr K as a prime minister face would add or not you have to first realize that whether you are making the announcement or you're not making the announcement so this indecision is killing them do you believe even now is it too late now indecision that whether Rahul Gandhi is running Congress or Mr K is running Congress is Mr Rahul going to be the Prime Minister face or somebody else if he doesn't want to be the Prime Minister let it be said in those many words by himself nobody than him that I'm not the candidate whoever is decided no believe that the India Alli should have a face even now I I I still go back and say if if they have a face definitely it will add value definitely you know the reason I'm not having a face is not going to give them any advantage the reason I'm asking you this is because the while the India Alliance appears in disarray as you said perception wise certainly the BJP on the other hand seems to have got an extra dose of energy they seem to be even more energized than they were before 2019 because of the Ram uh Mand consecration ceremony do you believe that has now pushed Mr Modi onto another level even compared to 2014 and 19 because now it's Ram it's labari and it's uh Hindu no I don't think Ram Mand thing is going to add a great deal of new vote to BJP if it certainly has enthused the bjp's rank and fight it has given something to chat and feel good about uh to the voters but I do not see this event of ram Mander bringing them new votes if there is anything it is it has certainly Consolidated their vote the vote is again the vote this time is definitely for the Mr Modi or against him it's not about Ram Mand no what is the bjp's USP in 2024 is it Ram is it Modi or is it vixit bhat it's it's Modi and RAM vixit bhat larti hinda everything is now subservient to this brand Modi what is brand Modi what is this secret Source because you worked with with him what is the secret source of this brand Modi how is brand Modi in 2024 different to the brand Modi that you worked with in 2014 well Mr modi's strength is that he evolves so and he his whole agenda also evolves every five year so in 2002 he's he was the Hindu H samrat by 2007 he became this able administrator who could bring development to uh Gujarat by 2014 he uh he evolved as somebody who can change India by 2019 he evolved is somebody who can bring great pride and courage and uh conviction in the story of India by 2024 he is position being positioned as somebody who has brought Ram back to this country that is how he has evolved and everything what they do is is subservient to this Evolution so the The Cult of Modi now is even bigger than that of the BJP people are voting for Modi not the BJP definitely no goes goes without saying I'm not saying they are not voting for BJP but I'm saying a bulk of the vote that is coming their way Modi is the major decisive Factor how will is the Delta how will you respond to those who will say that you go to the field and many uh contesting uh MPS would concede this that but for Modi they would find it very difficult to win with the same track record with same Hindu with same Ram Mand aoria with same labari model just remove Modi many MP candidates of BJP would find it difficult to win because in 2019 interestingly csds postp survey showed that one in every three people who had voted for the BJP had voted because they said they want to vote for Mr Modi so in a sense without Mr Modi the BJP is not the dominant Force you're saying like it's like imagining Congress in 1980 without indraa Gandhi you're lightening you you're saying Mr Modi today is in the same space that M Mrs Indira Gandhi was in 1980 he is Indira Gandhi of BJP he's the Indira Gandhi BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner uh yeah politically speaking he his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on ideology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you use the IND Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections are fought by comp would not be like by both side but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for IND Gandhi same way people are voting direct sure but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr Modi is drawing on a mix of of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND he had this Charisma and you know the control over State Machinery as we call it in totality be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be say in 70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 356 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have SE it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has grip the opposition that everybody the system is against us today I I I doubt I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free Ed CBI free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary and entire system was under you how did you came to 4 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused these powers that you have they have misused State stick to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI ma election machinery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these Powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years no prashan the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president is gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this Arin krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do say between 2014 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel a lot you would hear many common people saying common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for Mr Modi in the general election same voter who may have voted for m banery in Bengal 2 three years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vihans SAA and lo SAA and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr Mod's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the BJP P's underperformance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vidhan SAA only 3% Point BJP vote share was 3 percentage Point lower than the loksabha between 2014 to 2019 now the underperformance in vhan SAA for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP it is that much more difficult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people are not taking Mr modi's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 2014 19 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mentioned how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay no I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats it's starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in north in Bihar bjp's vote share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal UR Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti-bjp uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four ke anti BJP formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then this 200 MPS who anyway are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult it's very difficult impossible and more I wouldn't say impossible but more woring sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trips Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and Carol compared to say madha Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to caral look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on Telangana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here at this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and in India which is gr at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want politic change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these states like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free Rasen is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupees pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in kataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in Bihar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or orisha you have to be in their shoes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that the they you know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in Bihar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad ni Kumar in a way nitish Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like bear namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mind more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for biar because all they were interested in that with the help of Lau Yad get some 20 25 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing vjv nitish Kumar they are private State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nitish Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like a nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or are Regional part is here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if kcr is a was a is a original party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have have been telling this cast census is going to be the second mandle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again Cas Thing Once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it nitish Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up Bihar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and Bihar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is bhara SL Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the Kamar Namar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi versus Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dynast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi's this they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there an Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric Pol Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know 5 years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 2030 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clarify this doesn't mean that I a lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the polity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form what does new form ideologically the CH one side is this right right to C right to center and another is the left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which still is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that I told you know you remember two three years back uh we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 2030 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party status is not same as being a National Force National political force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jang and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came reposition themsel at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force oppose opposing the bjp's ideology and what BJP represents in a way you are offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the court I'm not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of Cent I'm saying that in this country left of center space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re position themsel they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where do you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vians SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and nitish may finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in Beal last two years I have not I I'm not I'm I'm not planning to go Bihar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday two years I have left everything and I stationed in Bihar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in be coming from Bihar in their assembly election not in the Lo SAA but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the banaba election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 2024 Lo saaba is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place the if I'm in oppositionist space I would fight with all the might the loksabha but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the vihans SAA beat Maharashtra beat harana beat Bihar from today from today not after loc SAA but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose Lo SAA then 3 months they will go in oblivian then comes the vhan SAA election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is lo SAA you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall in 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal elections you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading toward single party democracy now you're telling me multi-party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian demo you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose Loa elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's it multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win Lo SAA don't don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win Lo SAA but you have enough opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank you for having me thank you hello and welcome to this India today's special after nitish Kumar's G wapsi yet again in Bihar the dark clouds hanging over the himon Surin government in jaran and the recent defeat of the Congress to the BJP in the Hindi Heartland States most political observers are saying that the 2024 general elections are a done deal for Narendra Modi and the BJP are the general elections of formality does the opposition still have a chance of making a comeback back who better to answer that than the country's Ace political strategist now a political activist with the Jan surj movement that he has set up in Bihar joining us now the one and only Prashant Kishore appreciate you're joining us Prashant thank you uh after the fall or should I say the reemergence of nitish Kumar in a new AAR this time back in the NDA the general consensus is that 2024 is a done deal you go along with that that nitish Kumar's decision has virtually spre made 2024 a done deal uh yes and no because see nitish Kumar per se him being part of the opposition block was not that big a deal first of all because on his own he was not bringing something that would have turned the table but perception wise yes there was at least those who believed in the opposition strength or the new formation called India they thought him as one of the key allies or key component of this new formation uh BJP by taking him back to my mind has gone for a strategy where what we what one would say uh losing losing a war for losing a battle to win a war uh because in Bihar per se BJP is not going to give any advantage to BJP but in terms of perception Countrywide yes no but the fact is let's be honest now that the BJP has nitish Kumar with it they have chak paswan with it it appears that the opposition is decimated in Bear a state where the BJP won 39 out of 40 seats last time so the BJP seems to have virtually you know Domin will now dominate Bihar no actually not if you look at the Hard data in 2014 BJP fought on its own with the Allies like chak bwan at that time Ras paswan and they won more than 32 seats in last general elections BJP won 17 not 39 the the alliance with Alliance the w39 this time around with uh ni not being what he used to be in 2014 or 2019 BJP and the IND Alliance anyway was doing pretty well so I don't think BJP has taken nitish Kumar back to add seats in Bihar in fact if you look at carefully BJP own number is going to be less in Bihar after taking nitish Kumar because they will be fighting less number of seats so why did BJP opt for this they have opted for exactly where you started this interview that in terms of perception nitish was seen as somebody who is bringing together all part who brought everyone together to build this India Alliance so by taking one of the Architects out of it BJP has given a severe psychological blow to the opposition not in material terms in material terms nitis does not nitis leaving is not going to matter much in fact it's going to reduce bjp's number and in assembly elections BJP is going to pay the price for this but they have opted for it knowingly because they want to win the war maybe lose the battle in Bihar no in a sense it seems that the BJP has decided that 2024 upy bar Charo par you see they psychologically intimidating the opposition would you agree that all of this therefore a part of psychological thing it that's what I'm trying to tell you it's not a tangible gain for BJP it's a psychological blow to the opposition it's not as much the tangible gain for BJP as much the psychological blow to the opposition but many will say that the opposition in any case Prashant has not really taken off this India Alliance has not taken off so that's what I'm trying to tell you that any which way it's not that with NI on with India that they were doing very well BJP was anywhere in the lead position with this new thing they have given a psychological blow to the all effort which was built around India Alliance so why do you think this India Alliance is not taken off why do you think is it because each leader of this India Alliance is restricted to his or her own state has no chemistry Nationwide they don't have a narrative beyond anti- modismos the whole initiative came too late m they started only last year June July now it any sensible person whether it is Niti or MTA or Rahul Stalin anyone you might think how the seat adjustment would be what the narrative would be but everyone knew that there is an election in 2024 what prevented these leaders to form the same Alliance say a year back just imagine if they would have done the same thing in 2021 or 2022 they would have got two years to sort out their differences they would have got two years to decide the seat sharing they would have got two years to reach to people build a narrative and would not have given a free run to BJP or NDA to build and play on their strength so you don't think it has anything to do with the fact that they didn't make nitish Kumar the convenor of the alliance none of that makes a difference you just think that they got their act together too late too late because in six or8 or nine months in a country as big as India when you are up against a very organized Force electoral force of BJP you don't stand much a chance I always say that anything and everything can be managed but for the time I give an example in 2019 results Loa results Didi got a set back in Bengal so did Congress in Assam in Bengal within two months of loksabha we started the counter TMC started the counter they looked at what what went wrong wrong they worked on their organization they built their narrative and by 2021 in May TMC lit gained everything what they lost to BJP in fact they gained a bit more than what they thought compare that to what Congress did in Assam they also lost but they did nothing they started building the mahag Gat bandhan and all their effort in Assam 3 months before the election so obviously 3 months was not enough so is is the Congress then the elephant in the room that so long as the Congress doesn't revive or get its act together this whole opposition plank simply will not take off yes because they are the one who are fighting on 300 seats and I always say that unless there are a strike rate even forget about India what happened to India today just look at if Congress is fighting 250 OD seat if they win 30% of those seats if congress's strike rate is 30% then BJP number the India number would be closer to 250 220 than 320 330 is as simple as this forget about everything else let's Congress deliver one third on one third of the seats which they are fighting the game will will change but they are not able to there strike rate is in low single digit that's right but their their strike rate against BJP lot of people do not pay attention if Congress has won 50 seats they have not won against BJP they have won against communist in Carol they have won in against aad DMK in Tamil Nadu they have won against aalis in Punjab they have not won anything against BJP so the moment their strike rate against BJP goes 25 30% even if it is 25 30% you will see the balance coming to this opposition and ruling sure because most of these seats are in north and west both of these uh both most of these Congress versus BJP fights have been in north and and and West India and in both 2014 and 2019 the BJP demolished them there so do you see any Prospect of the Congress Reviving or do you believe that is as I called it the kamor Ci or the elephant in the room that unless the Congress revives nothing's going to change on the ground un I wouldn't say this I would just put it differently unless somebody breaks into the North and the West frontiers of BJP they are not coming down and when I say somebody it means if aes's party were to Break um say BJP in up and they win 30 40 50 seat it's a big blow to BJP if luu Yad can defeat T Yad can defeat BJP in Bihar that's another 20 25 seats if somebody if sharat Paar and UD takre defeats BJP in Maharashtra then even without Congress BJP will be brought to like 200 closer to 200 but the problem is unless Congress and plus these three big Regional allies unless they get their because it's not only Congress who a strike rate against BJP is in single digit same is the case with SP just look at their track record in 2014 aes's aes's party SP has won only 5 MP when they fought in Alliance with bsp still they got only five so if unless SP number goes up BJP is bound to get 60 70 seats in up same thing in in uh for example Bihar it's not only Congress the rjd seat in Bihar is zero so it's not only for BJP same goes for udha takre and Sarat PA unless these four five key players in north and west who are taking BJP headon their strike rate goes to 25 30% there is no it's very difficult how you're going to defeat BJP now you know many believe that part of the problem also is Rahul Gandhi himself he's gone on a bhat n yatra earlier bhat J yatra now a bhat n yatra and many say that unless Rahul Gandhi in a way says I am not the prime ministerial candidate the BJP will make it again Modi versus Rahul in some way and that will put the opposition into a trap do you agree with that that it is necessary for the Congress to say that Rahul Gandhi isn't our prime minister candidate and throw up someone else possibly Malik Arjun I I think it's not necessary what is necessary is that Rahul Gandhi allows somebody else to run the Congress if he's not running the Congress because look at but he is running the Congress he's running the Congress but he's not saying that he's running the Congress that is the problem look at whoever is advising them this could be the worst time for you to leave headquarters and go for a yatra yatra was to be done maybe 6 month a year before two year before now is the time when you should be meeting with your strategic allies you need to raise resources you need to finalize your candidates you need to firefight on daily basis when you are needed at headquarter you are in Fe field when you were needed to be in field they were then you were sitting in Delhi I don't know who advises them just imagine you are losing a key Ali in Bihar whether he it's worth his name or not that's a different thing but he was a key Ali rather than being on the ground sorting that issue out somebody like Congress president Mr Malik Arjun K I read his statement he said I'm hearing the report well I will reach Delhi and then I will figure it out what is happened when the deal is already done he is the next day by the time K reaches Mr K reaches Delhi nsh Kumar is swearing up swearing there as a BJP chief minister or NDA chief minister so what I'm saying is this is the Strategic common sensical thinking you do not leave the the commander of the army you don't go to the field when you have to be on the headquar are you saying Rahul Gandhi should step aside or are you saying that Rahul Gandhi should be clear that if you are going to be the commander act like a commander not be on a yatra at a time like this be at the headquarters managing because I you and I know that no decision will happen when nothing important will move in Congress unless rul Gandhi approves it and when you need that minute to minute involvement and his decision making his opinion he is in Manipur nagaland he is in in yatra I don't think this is the best best use of his time so what I'm saying is he has to be clear it's not about whether he's a prime face or he's the campaign manager he's running I you know I I read your Tweet only if you are doing this yatra a solo yatra then this is the worst time to do a solo yatra then it should have been an India yatra ex it should not have been a Congress yatra and if you are doing a congress yatra then forget about in the India you know because you've often said that and many believe now that Indian elections have become presidential 2014 2019 general elections are increasingly about B pradan leadership contest would the India Alliance pitching a nitish Kumar a few months ago or a Malik Arjun K now or even a Rahul Gandhi would that make any difference or that's not really I was asked this question on Mr K and my answer was whoever you pitch be decisive be clear look at the name proposal v m with regards to Mr karge two allies proposed his name he in the same meeting said yes and literally backed out his own party did not offer a single formal statement to it so before getting into Merit whether Mr K announcement of Mr K as a prime minister face would add value or not you have to first realize that whether you are making the announcement or you're not making the announcement so this indecision is killing them do you believe even now is it too late now indecision that whether Rahul Gandhi is running Congress or Mr K is running Congress is Mr Rahul going to be the Prime Minister face or somebody else if he doesn't want to be the Prime Minister let it be said in those many words by himself nobody than him that I'm not the candidate whoever is decided no but do you believe that the India Alli should have a face even now I I I still go back and say if if they have a face definitely it will add value definitely you know the reason I'm not having a face is not going to give them any advantage the reason I'm asking you this is because the while the India Alliance appears in disarray as you said perception wise certainly the BJP on the other hand seems to have got an extra dose of energy they seem to be even more energized than they were before 2019 because of the ram Mand consecration ceremony do you believe that has now pushed Mr Modi onto another level even compared to 2014 and 19 because now it's Ram it's larti and it's uh Hindu no I don't think Ram Mand thing is going to add a great deal of new vote to BJP if it certainly has enthused the BJP rank can fight it has given something to chat and feel good about uh to the voters but I do not see this event of ram Mand bringing them new votes if there is anything it is it has certainly Consolidated their vote the vote is again the vote this time is definitely for the Mr Modi or against him it's not about Ram Mand no what is the bjp's USP in 2024 is it Ram is it Modi or is it vixit bat it's it's Modi and r bit bat larti hinda everything is now subservient to this brand Modi what is brand Modi what is this secret Source because you worked with him what is the secret source of this brand Modi how is brand Modi in 2024 different to the brand Modi that you worked with in 2014 well Mr modi's strength is that he evolves so and he his whole agenda also evolves every 5 years so in 2002 he's he he was the Hindu H samrat by 2007 he became this able administrator who could bring development to uh Gujarat by 2014 he uh he evolved as somebody who can change India by 2019 he evolved is somebody who can bring great pride and courage and uh conviction in the story of India by 2024 he is position being positioned as somebody who has brought Ram back to this country that is how he has evolved and everything what they do is is subservient to this Evolution so the The Cult of Modi now is even bigger than that of the BJP people are voting for Modi not the BJP definitely no goes goes without saying I'm not saying they are not voting for BJP but I'm saying a bulk of the vote that is coming their way Modi is the major decisive factor is the Delta how will you respond to those who will say that you go to the field and many uh contesting uh MPS would concede this that but for Modi they would find it very difficult to win with the same track record with same hinda with same Ram Mand aoria with same laari model just remove Modi many MP candidates of BJP would find it difficult to win because in 2019 interestingly csds postp survey showed that one in every three people who had voted for the BJP had voted because they said they wanted to vote for Mr Modi so in a sense without Mr Modi the BJ is not the dominant Force you're saying it's like it's like imagining Congress in 1980 without indraa Gandhi you're likening you you're saying Mr Modi today is in the same space that M Mrs Indira Gandhi was in 1980 he is Indira Gandhi of BJP he's the Indira Gandhi of BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner uh yeah politically speaking he is his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on idey ology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you use the Indira Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections are fought uh I know see my comp would not be like by both side but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for Inda Gandhi same way people are voting directly sure but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr Modi is drawing on a mix of of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND he had this Charisma and you know the control over State missinary as we call it in totality be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be saying '70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 356 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have steal it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has gripped the opposition that everybody the system is against us today I I I I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free Ed CBI free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary and entire system was under you how did you came to 45 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused uh these powers that you have Raj stick to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI ma election machinery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these Powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years no prashan the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president has gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this issue Arin krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do say between 24 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel Raj a lot you would hear many common people saying sub power common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for for Mr Modi in the general election same voter who may have voted for mam banerji in Bengal 2 3 years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vidan SAA and Lok SAA and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr modi's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the bjp's underperformance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vidhansabha only 3 percentage Point BJP vote share was 3 percentage Point lower than the loksabha between 2014 to 2019 now the underperformance in vhan SAA for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP is that much more difficult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people are not taking Mr modi's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 20149 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mentioned how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay no I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats is starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in North in biar bjp's vote share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal urisa Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti-bjp uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three4 keepy anti-bjp uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then these 200 MPS who anyway are winning as non-bjp MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trips Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madha Pradesh or uh Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to caral look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on Telangana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is growing at extreme slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these states like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free rasan is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in Bihar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or orisha you have to be in their shoes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that they they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in biar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by L in a way nsh Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mines more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their pre-dominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for Bihar because all they were interested in that with the help of luu Yad get some 2025 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that Bihar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nsh Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or our regional part is here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or Congress they will gain if kcr is a was a is a original party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is car still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself into interesting as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast sensus is going to be the second mle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again Thing Once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it nitish Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up biar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and biar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is vh/ Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a self- man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still that the Kamar Namar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi versus Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi this they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there incorruptable is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr Modi Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric polity Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know five years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 20 30 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clarify this doesn't mean that I a lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the poity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form what does new form ideologically the ch one side is this right right to right to center and another is the left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which is still is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that you know you remember two three years back we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 20 30 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party status is not same as being a National Force National political force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jan and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came reposition themsel at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force opposed opposing the bjp's ideology and what BJP represents in a way you are offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the course I'm not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of center I'm saying that in this country of Centrist space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re positions they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where do you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vidan SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and ni May finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in bear for last two years I have not I'm I'm not I'm I'm not planning to go Bihar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday two years I have left everything and I'm stationed in Bihar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in be coming from Bihar in their Assembly Election not in the Lo saaba but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the bdan SAA election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 2024 Lo saaba is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place in the next few years in opposition is space I would fight with all the might the loksabha but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the vhan SAA beat Maharashtra beat harana beat Bihar from today from today not after loksabha but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose Lo SAA then 3 months they will go in oblivian then comes the vaba election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is lo SAA you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall it 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal elections you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading toward single party democracy now you're telling me multi-party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian demo you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose Loa elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's it multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win Lo SAA don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win Lok SAA but you have enough opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank you for having me thank you hello and welcome to this India today's special after nitish Kumar's K wapsi yet again in Bihar the dark clouds hanging over the himon Surin government in jaran and the recent defeat of the Congress to the BJP in the Hindi Heartland States most political observers are saying that the 2024 general elections are a done deal for Narendra Modi and the BJP are the general elections of formality does the opposition still have a chance of making a comeback who better to answer that then the country's Ace political strategist now a political activist with the Jan surj movement that he has set up in Bihar joining us now the one and only Prashant Kishore appreciate you're joining us Prashant thank you uh after the fall or should I say the reemergence of nitish Kumar in a new ofar this time back in the NDA the general consensus is that 2024 is a done deal do you go along with that that nsh Kumar's decision has virtually spre made 2024 a done deal uh yes and no because see nitish Kumar per se him being part of the opposition block was not that big a deal first of all because on his own he was not bringing something that would have turned the table but perception wise yes there was at least those who believed in the opposition's strength or the new formation called India they thought him as one of the key allies or key component of this new formation uh BJP by taking him back to my mind has gone for a Str what what we what one would say uh losing losing a war for losing a battle to win a war uh because in Bihar per se BJP is not going to give any advantage to BJP but in terms of perception Countrywide yes no but the fact is let's be honest now that the BJP has nitish Kumar with it they have chak paswan with it it appears that the opposition is decimated in be a state where the BJP won 39 out of 40 seats last time so the BJP seems to have virtually you know Domin will now dominate Bihar no actually not if you look at the Hard data in 2014 BJP fought on its own with the Allies like chak paswan at that time ramas paswan G and they won more than 32 seats in last general elections BJP won 17 not 39 the the alliance with Alliance they won 39 this time around with uh Niti not being what he used to be in 2014 or 2019 BJP and the IND Alliance anyway was doing pretty well so I don't think BJP has taken nitish Kumar back to add seats in Bihar in fact if you look at carefully bjp's own number is going to be less in Bihar after taking nitish Kumar because they will be fighting less number of seats so why did BJP opt for this they have opted for exactly where you started this interview that in terms of perception Niti was seen as somebody who is bringing together all part who brought everyone together to build this India Alliance so by taking one of the Architects out of it BJP has given a severe psychological blow to the opposition not in material terms in material terms nitis does not nitis leaving is not going to matter much in fact it's going to reduce bjp's number and in assembly elections BJP is going to pay the price for this but they have opted for it knowingly because they want to win the war maybe lose the battle in be no in a sense it seems that the BJP has decided that 2024 up Char you see they psychologically intimidating the opposition would you agree that all of this therefore the per part of psychological thing it that's what I'm trying to tell you it's not a tangible gain for BJP it's a psychological blow to the opposition but it's not as much the tangible gain for BJP as much the psychological blow to the opposition but many will say that the opposition in any case Prashant has not really taken off this in India Alliance has not taken off so that's what I'm trying to tell you that any which way it's not that with NI on with India that they were doing very well BJP was any way in the lead position with this new thing they have given a psychological blow to the all effort which was built around India lands so why do you think this India Alliance has not taken off why do you think is it because each leader of this India Alliance is restricted to his or her own state has no chemistry Nationwide they don't have a narrative beyond anti- modismos the whole initiative came too late they started only last year June July now it any sensible person whether it is NI or M Rahul Stalin anyone you might think how the seat adjustment would be what The Narrative would be but everyone knew that there is an election in 2024 what prevented these leaders to form the same Alliance say a year back just imagine if they would have done the same thing in 2021 or 2022 they would have got two years to sort out their differences they would have got two years to decide the seat sharing they would have got two years to reach to people build a narrative and would not have given a free run to BJP or NDA to build and play on their strength so you don't think it does anything to do with the fact that they didn't make nsh Kumar the convenor of the alliance none of that makes a difference you just think that they got their act together too late too late because in six or eight or nine months in a country as big as India when you are up against a very organized Force electoral force of BJP you don't stand much a chance I always say that anything and everything can be managed but for the time I give an example in 2019 results Loa results didd got a setback in Bengal so did Congress in Assam in Bengal within two months of loksabha we started the counter TMC started the counter they looked at what what went wrong they worked on their organization they build their narrative and by 2021 in May TMC lit gained everything what they lost to BJP in fact they gained a bit more than what they thought compare that to what Congress did in in Assam they also lost but they did nothing they started building the mahag Gat bandhan and all their effort in Assam 3 months before the election so obviously 3 months was not enough so is is the Congress then the elephant in the room that so long as the Congress doesn't revive or get its act together this whole opposition PL simply will not take off yes because they are the one who are fighting on 300 seats and I always say that unless there a strike rate even forget about India what happened to India today just look at if Congress is fighting 250 OD seat if they win 30% of those seats if congress's strike rate is 30% then BJP number the IND number would be closer to 250 220 than 320 330 it's as simple as this forget about everything else let's Congress deliver one third on one third of the seats which they are fighting the game will will change but they are not able to there strike rate is in low single digit that's right but their their strike rate against BJP a lot of people do not pay attention if Congress has won 50 seats they've not won against BJP they have won against communist in Carol they have won in against aad DMK in Tamil Nadu they have won against akalis in Punjab they have not won anything against BJP so the moment their strike rate against BJP goes 25 30% even if it is 25 30% you will see the balance coming to this opposition and ruling sure because most of these seats are in north and west both of these uh both most of these Congress versus BJP fights have been in north and and and West India and in both 204 and 2019 the BJP demolished them there so do you see any Prospect of the Congress Reviving or do you believe that is as I called it the kamor Ci or the elephant in the room that unless the Congress revives nothing's going to change on the ground I wouldn't say this I would just put it differently unless somebody breaks into the the North and the West frontiers of BJP they are not coming down and when I say somebody it means if aes's party were to Break um say BJP in up and they win 30 40 50 seat it's a big blow to BJP if luu Yad can defeat T Yad can defeat BJP in Bihar that's another 20 25 seats if somebody if sharat Paar and UD takre defeats BJP in in Maharashtra then even without Congress BJP will be brought to like 200 closer to 200 but the problem is unless Congress and plus these three big Regional allies unless they get their act because it's not only Congress who a strike rate against BJP is in single digit same is the case with SP just look at their track record in 2014 aes's aes's party SP has won only 5 MP when they fought in Alliance with bsp still the only five so if unless SP number goes up BJP is bound to get 6070 seats in up same thing in in uh for example Bihar it's not only Congress the rjd seat in Bihar is zero so it's not only for BJP same goes for udha takre and Sarat Paar unless these four five key players in north and west who are taking BJP head on their strike rate goes to 25 30% there is know it's very difficult how you're going to defeat BJP now you know many believe that part of the problem also is Rahul Gandhi himself he's gone on a bhat n yatra earlier bat joro yatra now a bhat n yatra and many say that unless Rahul Gandhi in a way says I am not the prime ministerial candidate the BJP will make it again Modi versus Rahul in some way and that will put the opposition into a trap do you agree with that that it is necessary for the Congress to say that Rahul Gandhi isn't our prime minister candidate and throw up someone else possibly Malik Arjun I I think it's not necessary what is necessary is that Rahul Gandhi allows somebody else to run the Congress if he's not running the Congress because look at but he is running the Congress he's running the Congress but he's not saying that he's running the Congress that is the problem look at whoever is advising them this could be the worst time for you to leave headquarters and go for a yatra yatra was to be done maybe maybe 6 month a year before two year before now is the time when you should be meeting with your strategic allies you need to raise resources you need to finalize your candidates you need to firefight on daily basis when you are needed at headquarter you are in field when you were needed to be in field they were then you were sitting in Delhi I don't know who advises them just imagine you are losing a keyi in Bihar whether he it's worth his name or not that's a different thing but he was a key Li rather than being on the ground sorting that issue out somebody like Congress president Mr Malik Jun Kar I read his statement he said I'm hearing the report well I will reach Delhi and then I will figure it out what is happened when the deal is already done he is the next day by the time K reaches Mr K reaches Delhi nsh Kumar is swearing up swearing there as a BJP chief minister or NDA chief minister so what I'm saying is this is the Strategic common sensical thinking you do not leave the the commander of the army you don't go to the field when you have to be are you saying Rahul Gandhi should step aside or are you saying that Rahul Gandhi should be clear that if you are going to be the commander act like a commander not be on a yatra at a time like this be at the headquartering because I you and I know that no decision will happen when nothing important will move in Congress unless Rahul Gandhi approves it and when you need that minute to minute involvement and his decision making his opinion he is in Manipur nagaland he is in in yatra I don't think this is the best best use of his time so what I'm saying is he has to be clear it's not about whether he's a prime minister face or he's the campaign manager he's running I you know I I read you your Tweet only if you are doing this yatra a solo yatra then this is the worst time to do a solo yatra then it should have been an India yatra it should not have been a Congress yatra and if you are doing a congress yatra then forget about in the India you know because you've often said that and many believe now that Indian elections have become presidential 2014 2019 general elections are increasingly about B pradan leadership contest would the India Alliance pitching a nitish Kumar a few months ago or a Malik Arjun K now or even a Rahul Gandhi would that make any difference or that's not really the this question on Mr K and my answer was whoever you pitch be I be clear look at the name proposal v m with regards to Mr kge two allies proposed his name he in the same meeting said yes and literally backed out his own party did not offer a single formal statement to it so before getting into Merit whether Mr K announcement of Mr K as a prime minister face would add value or not you have to first realize that whether you are making the announcement or you're not making the announcement so this indecision is killing them do you believe even now is it too late now indecision that whether Rahul Gandhi is running Congress or Mr Kar is running Congress is Mr Rahul going to be the Prime Minister face or somebody else if he doesn't want to be the Prime Minister let it be said in those many words by himself nobody than him that I'm not the candidate whoever is decided no but you believe that the India Alli should have a face even now I I I still go back and say if if they have a face definitely it will add value definitely you know the reason I'm not having a face is not going to give them any advantage the reason I'm asking you this is because the while the India Alliance appears in disarray as you said perception wise certainly the BJP on the other hand seems to have got an extra dose of energy they seem to be even more energized than they were before 2019 because of the Ram uh Mand consecration ceremony do you believe that has now pushed Mr Modi onto another level even compared to 2014 and 19 because now it's Ram it's larti and it's uh Hindu no I don't think Ram Mand thing is going to add a great deal of new vote to BJP if it certainly has enthused the bjp's rank and file it has given something to chat and feel good about uh to the voters but I do not see this event of ram Mand bringing them new votes if there is anything it is it has certainly Consolidated their vote the vote is again the vote this time is definitely for the Mr Modi or against him it's not about Ram Mand no what is the bjp's USP in 2024 is it Ram is it Modi or is it vixit bhat it's it's Modi and RAM vixit bhat larti hinda everything is now subservient to this brand Modi what is brand Modi what is this secret Source because you worked with him what is the secret source of this brand Modi how is brand Modi in 2024 different to the Grand Modi that you worked with in 2014 well Mr modi's strength is that he evolves so and he his whole agenda also evolves every five year so in 2002 he's he was the Hindu H samrat by 2007 he became this able administrator who could bring development to uh Gujarat by 2014 he uh he evolved as somebody who can change India by 2019 he evolved is somebody who can bring great pride and courage and uh conviction in the story of India by 2024 he is position being positioned as somebody who has brought Ram back to this country that is how he has evolved and everything what they do is is subservient to this Evolution so the The Cult of Modi now is even bigger than that of the BJP people are voting for Modi not the BJP definitely goes goes without saying I'm not saying they are not voting for BJP but I'm saying a bulk of the vote that is coming their way Modi is the major decisive factor is the Delta how will you respond to those who will say that you go to the field and many uh contesting uh MPS would concede this that but for Modi they would find it very difficult to win with the same track record with same Hindu with same Ram Mand aoria with same labari model just remove Modi many MP candidates of BJP would find it difficult to win because in 2019 interestingly csds postp survey showed that one in every three people who had voted for the BJP had voted because they said they wanted to vote for Mr Modi so in a sense without Mr Modi the BJP is not the dominant Force you're saying it's like it's like imagining Congress in 1980 without indraa Gandhi you're liking you you're saying Mr Modi today is in the same space that M Mrs Indira Gandhi was in 1980 he is Indira Gandhi of BJP he's the Indira Gandhi of BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner yeah politically speaking he his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on ideology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you use the Indira Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections of fought uh by I know see my comp would not be like by both side but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for Inda Gandhi same way people are voting directly sure but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr Modi is drawing on a mix of St of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND he had this Charisma and you know the control over State Machinery as we call it in totality be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be say in70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 356 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have St it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has grip the opposition that everybody the system is against us today I I I doubt I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free Ed CBI free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary and entire system was under you how did you came to 45 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused uh these po r stick to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI ma election machinery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these Powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years prant the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president has gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this is who Arin krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do say between 2014 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel Raj a lot you would hear many common people saying common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for Mr Modi in the general election same voter who may have voted for mam banerji in Bengal 2 three years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vians SAA and lo SAA and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr modi's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the bjp's underperformance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vidhansabha only 3 percentage Point BJP vote share was 3% Point lower than the loksabha between 2014 to 2019 now the underperformance in vhan SAA for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP it is that much more difficult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people people are not taking Mr modi's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 20149 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mentioned how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay no I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats is starting from Bihar don't count Bihar in north in Bihar bjp's vote share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take Bihar Bengal urisa Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti BJP uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four key antibp uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then these 200 MPS who anyway are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult it's very difficult impossible and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on East and South look at the number of trips Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madha Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to Carol look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on telengana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in Carol they are already there in around 10% vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given us a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is growing at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what def finds better life for you these states like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free Russ is fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupees pension is an fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in Bihar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or orisha you have to be in their shoes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that they they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in biar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad nium in way nsh Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more mines more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and Bihar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power as sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for Bihar because all they were interested in that with the help of Lalu Yad get some 2025 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they Overlook the closed eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that Bihar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake out of 18 years of nsh Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from but do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like a nitish Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or are Regional parties here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if kcr is a was a is a original party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but his cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast census is going to be the second mle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again cast Thing Once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it nitish Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at the states where we talk about the cast politics most which is up Bihar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and Bihar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is vh/ Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the kamdar Namar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people people in room who are voting for Mr Modi versus Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dynast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi's this they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there and Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a Modi Centric BJP Centric Hindu Centric po Congress declining and maybe a new political force emerging I I don't know about 10 years but it would be very difficult for BJP to continue dominating Beyond you know 5 years or so because that would mean like going Beyond 15 years of ruling country but what I see is BJP as a party as a political formation is going to be one of the dominant Force around which the politics will revolve in 20 30 years at least like it was in case of Congress again I must clarify this doesn't mean that I a lot of people think that I they start saying that I I'm saying that BJP cannot be defeated even if BJP is defeated BJP will be the central political force around which the poity will move for another 20 30 years at least somebody will emerge somebody will defeat them for sure in next 5 years could be done could be 10 years it could be done I don't know about the timeline and who will defeat but no would it be the Congress or a new political force in your view or Regional parties no it has to be a congress in a new form uh which what does what do you mean by Congress in a new form new leadership or new form what does new form ideologically the CH one side is this right right to right to center and another is a left to Center so left to Center space is dominated today by Congress and the Congress has to reincarnate itself and come in a manner where it takes the dominant vote share of the left of center which is still is bigger than right of Center so you don't see the likes of Arin krial and all emerging to occupy that I told you know you remember two three years back uh we had this discussion post Bengal and I told you it's literally very difficult because in 100 years last 100 years this country has seen only two pan India parties it takes time it takes 20 30 years for you to build party to reach the national uh taking a technical National Party state is not same as being a National Force National political force so for BJP it has taken more than 50 years make no mistake they started at Jang and they went to up to 50 seat then 30 years of decline then they re came repositioned them at BJP that take them took them another 10 years for them to become a national Force so I I would I'm not somebody who would say that Congress is going to finish the Congress in some form or other will remain the dominant Force oppose opposing the bjp's ideology and what BJP represents in a way you're offering hope to Rahul Gandhi and the Congress stay the cour I'm not saying Rahul Gandhi I'm saying Congress the space left of center I'm saying that in this country left of center space is not going away and broadly that's what Congress claims to represent ideologically so if Congress were to regroup reenergize represent them uh re positions they are there is a denominator there is a denominator to take final question where do you see yourself do you see yourself now what has happened in Bihar opening up the possibility of a third Force by 2025 vians SAA where this duopoly of Lalu and nitish may finally be over do you really see the emergence possibly for someone like you who can challenge this or do you believe it's very difficult to scale up or go on from a political strategist to building a party Raj I I'm in biar for last two years I have not I I'm not I'm I'm not planning to go Bihar because something has happened in Bihar yesterday two years I have left everything and I'm stationed in Bihar moving Village to Village and what I see and what I have learned and seen observed in last two years gives me full conviction that Bihar is just there to change and you would be surprised the kind of change India is going to see coming in coming from Bihar in their Assembly Election not in the Lo but in assembly elections you have to give a year because people are as I told you they are not looking at India people in Bihar they are looking to sort their issue out and that would be reflected in the bdan SAA election so you're very interestingly telling me that in a way your hope is that even if 2024 Lo saaba is almost a done deal the state elections are becoming increasingly wide open and that's the real contestation that will take place in the if I'm in opposition space I would fight with all the might the Lo SAA but I would not lose the hope and I would start preparing for each of the vidhansabha beat Maharashtra beat harana beat Bihar from today from today not after loksabha but what will happen they will lose Lo suppose they lose Lo SAA then 3 months they will go in oblivian then comes the vaba election then they will say there's no left time left but if you know it's like the first line of fight is loksabha you must start preparing your second line and third line and the real power political and otherwise rest with the state winning the states so that is where the hope is and that is where opposition should put their focus on you know it's interesting you're saying this because I recall in 2021 when I had interviewed you during the West Bengal election you had said that if uh the TMC loses India could be heading toward single party democracy now you're telling me multi-party democracy is alive and well certainly at the state level Indian demo you know Indian democracy has not been taken over by one leader or one I'm saying the same thing unless so long the states are even if you lose loab elections again and again but so long you hold your ground on in the states India is democracy that texture it's it multi polarity are going to stay and that is very important that even if you are not able to necessarily win Lo SAA don't give up hope fight with all what you have make sure that you don't lose the states maybe there is no opportunity for you to win Lok SAA but you have enough opportunity to win your State win that and the tide will turn Okay Prashant Kishore for having given us a sense of what you believe is the big National picture as well as the state picture in this uh huge election year of 2024 thank you very much for speaking your mind thank thank you for having me thank you hello and welcome to this India Today special after nitish Kumar's G wapsi yet again in Bihar the dark clouds hanging over the himon Surin government in jarand and the recent defeat of the Congress to the BJP in the Hindi Heartland States most political observers are saying that the 2024 general elections are a done deal for Narendra Modi and the BJP are the general elections of formality does the opposition still have a chance of making a comeback who better to answer that than the country's Ace political strategist now a political activist with the Jan surj movement that he has set up in Bihar joining us now the one and only Prashant Kishore appreciate you're joining us Prashant thank you uh after the fall or should I say the reemergence of nitish Kumar in a new AAR this time back in the end the general consensus is that 2024 is a done deal do you go along with that that nitish Kumar's decision has virtually spr made 2024 a done deal uh yes and no because see nitish Kumar per se him being part of the opposition block was not that big a deal first of all because on his own he was not bringing something that would have turned the table but perception wise yes there was at least those who believed in the opposition's strength or the new formation called India they thought him as one of the key allies or key component of this new formation uh BJP by taking him back to my mind has gone for a strategy what what we what one would say uh losing a losing a war for losing a battle to win a war uh because in Bihar per se BJP is not going to give any advantage to BJP but in terms of perception Countrywide yes no but the fact is let's be honest now that the BJP has nitish Kumar with it they have chak paswan with it it appears that the opposition is decimated in Bear a state where the BJP won 39 out of 40 seats last time so the BJP seems to have virtually you know Domin will now dominate biar no actually not if you look at the Hard data in 2014 BJP fought on its own with the Allies like chak paswan at that time ramas paswan G and they won more than 32 seats in last general elections BJP won 17 not 39 the the alliance with Alliance they w39 this time around with uh Niti not being what he used to be in 2014 or 2019 BJP and the India Alliance anyway was doing pretty well so I don't think BJP has taken nitish Kumar back to add seats in Bihar in fact if you look at carefully bjp's own number is going to be less in Bihar after taking nitish Kumar because they will be fighting less number of seats so why did BJP opt for this they have opted for exactly where you started this interview that in terms of perception nitish was seen as somebody who is bringing together all part who brought everyone together to build this India Alliance so by taking one of the Architects out of it BJP has given a severe psychological blow to the opposition not in material terms in material terms nitis does not nitis leaving is not going to matter much in fact it's going to reduce bjp's number and in assembly elections BJP is going to pay the price for this but they have opted for it knowingly because they want to win the war maybe lose the battle in be no in a sense it seems that the BJP has decided that 2024 up Char par you see they psychologically intimidating the opposition would you agree that all of this therefore the perception psychological thing it that's what I'm trying to tell you it's not a tangible gain for BJP it's a psychological blow to the opposition but it's not as much the tangible gain for BJP as much the psychological blow to the opposition but many will say that the opposition in any case Prashant has not really taken off this India Alliance has not taken off so that's what I'm trying to tell you that any which way it's not that with n on with India that they were doing very well BJP was any way in the lead position with this new thing they have given a psychological blow to the all effort which was built around India Alliance so why do you think this India Alliance is not taken off why do you think is it because each leader of this India Alliance is restricted to his or her own state has no chemistry Nationwide they don't have a narrative beyond anti- modismos the whole initiative came too late they started only last year June July now it any sensible person whether it is Niti or Mamta or Rahul Stalin anyone you might think how the seat adjustment would be what the narrative would be but everyone knew that there is an election in 2024 what prevented these leaders to form the same Alliance say a year back just imagine if they would have done the same thing in 2021 or 2022 they would have got two years to sort out their differences they would have got two years to decide the seat sharing they would have got two years to reach to people build a narrative and would not have given a free run to BJP or NDA to build and play on their strength so you don't think it has anything to do with the fact that they didn't make nitish Kumar the convenor of the alliance none of that makes a difference you just think that they got their act together too late too late because in six or eight or nine months in a country as big as India when you are up against a very organized Force electoral force of BJP you don't stand much a chance I always say that anything and everything can be managed but for the time I give an example in 2019 results Lo SAA results did got a setback in Bengal so did Congress in Assam in Bengal within two months of loksabha we started the counter TMC started the counter they looked at what what went wrong they worked on their organization they build their narrative and by 2021 in May TMC lit gained everything what they lost to BJP in fact they gained a bit more than what they thought compare that to what Congress did in Assam they also lost but they did nothing they started building the mahag Gat bandhan and all their effort in Assam 3 months before the election so obviously 3 months was not enough so is is the Congress than the elephant in the room that so long as the Congress doesn't revive or get its act together this whole oppos opposition plank simply will not take off yes because they are the one who are fighting on 300 seats and I always say that unless there a strike rate even forget about India what happen to India today just look at if Congress is fighting 250 OD seat if they win 30% of those seats if congress's strike rate is 30% then BJP number the India number would be closer to 250 220 than 320 330 it's as simple as this forget about everything else let Congress deliver one third on one third of the seats which they are fighting the game will will change but they are not able to there strike rate is in low single digit that's right but they their strike rate against BJP a lot of people do not pay attention if Congress has won 50 seats they have not won against BJP they have won against communist in Carol they have won in against a DMK in Tamil Nadu they have won against akalis in Punjab they have not won anything against BJP so the moment their strike rate against BJP goes 25 30% even if it is 25 30% you will see the balance coming to this opposition and ruling sure because most of the seats are in north and west both of these uh both most of these Congress versus BJP fights have been in north and and and West India and in both 2014 and 2019 the BJP demolished them there so do you see any Prospect of the Congress Reviving or do you believe that is as I called it the kamor Ci or the elephant in the room then unless the Congress revives nothing's going to change on the ground un I would say this I would just put it differently unless somebody breaks into the North and the West frontiers of BJP they are not coming down and when I say somebody it means if aes's party were to Break um say BJP in up and they win 30 40 50 seat it's a big blow to BJP if luu Yad can defeat t y can defeat BJP in biar that's another 2025 seats if somebody if sharat pawar and UD takre defeats BJP in Maharashtra then even without Congress BJP will be brought to like 200 closer to 200 but the problem is unless Congress and plus these three big Regional allies unless they get their act because it's it's not only Congress whose a strike rate against BJP is in single digit same is the case with SP just look at their track record in 2014 aes's aes's party SP has won only five MP when they fought in Alliance with bsp still they got only five so if unless SP number goes up BJP is bound to get 60 70 seats in up same thing in in uh for example biar it's not only Congress the rjd seat in Bihar is zero so it's not only for BJP same goes for udav takre and Sarat PA unless these four five key players in north and west who are taking BJP headon their strike rate goes to 25 30% there is no it's very difficult how you going to defeat BJP now you know many believe that part of the problem also is Rahul Gandhi himself he's gone on a bat n yatra earlier bhat jordo yatra now a bhat n yatra and many say that unless Rahul Gandhi in a way says I am not the prime ministerial candidate the BJP will make it again Modi versus Rahul in some way and that will put the opposition into a trap do you agree with that that it is necessary for the Congress to say that Rahul Gandhi isn't our prime minister candidate and throw up someone else possibly Malik I I think it's not necessary what is necessary is that Rahul Gandhi allows somebody else to run the Congress if he's not running the Congress because look at but he is running the Congress he's running the Congress but but he's not saying that he's running the Congress that is the problem look at whoever is advising them this could be the worst time for you to leave headquarters and go for a yatra yatra was to be done maybe 6 month a year before two year before now is the time when you should be meeting with your strategic allies you need to raise resources you need to finalize your candidates you need to firefight on daily basis when you are needed at headquarter you are in field when you were needed to be in field they were then you were sitting in Delhi I don't know who advises them just imagine you are losing a key Ali in Bihar whether he worth his name or not that's a different thing but he was a key Ali rather than being on the ground sorting that issue out somebody like Congress president Mr Malik Arjun Kar I read his statement he said I'm hearing the report well I will reach Delhi and then I will figure it out what is happened when the deal is already done he is the next day by the time K reaches Mr K reaches Delhi nsh Kumar is swearing up swearing there as a BJP chief minister or NDA chief minister so what I'm saying is this is the Strategic common sensical thinking you do not leave the the commander of the army you don't go to the field when you have to be on the head are you saying rul Gandhi should step aside or are you saying that Rahul Gandhi should be clear that if you are going to be the commander act like a commander not be on a at a time like this be at the headquarter I you and I know that no decision will happen when nothing important will move in Congress unless rul Gandhi approves it and when you need that minute to minute involvement and his decision making his opinion he is in Manipur nagaland he is in in yatra I don't think this is the best best use of his time so what I'm saying is he has to be clear it's not about whether he's a prime minister face or he's the campaign manager he's running I you know I I read your Tweet only if you are doing this yatra a solo yatra then this is the worst time to do a solo yatra then it should have been an India yatra ex it should not have been a Congress yatra and if you're doing a congress yatra then forget about in the India you know because you've often said that and many believe now that Indian elections have become presidential 2014 2019 general elections are increasingly about B pran leadership contest would the IND Alliance pitching a nsh Kumar a few months ago or a Malik Arjun K now or even a Rahul Gandhi would that make any difference or that's not really was asked this question on Mr K and my answer was whoever you pitch be decisive be clear look at the name proposal v m with regards to Mr K two allies proposed his name he in the same meeting said yes and literally backed out his own party did not offer a single formal statement to it so before getting into Merit whether Mr K announcement of Mr K as a prime minister face would add value or not you have to first realize that whether you are making the announcement or you're not making the announcement so this indecision is killing them do you believe even now is it too late now indecision that whether Rahul Gandhi is running Congress or Mr K is running Congress is Mr Rahul going to be the Prime Minister face or somebody else if he doesn't want to be the prime minister let it be said in those many words by himself nobody than him that I'm not the candidate whoever is decided no but do you believe that the India Alli should have a face even now I I I still go back and say if if they have a face definitely it will add value definitely you know the reason I'm not having a face is not going to give them any advantage the reason I'm asking you this is because the while the India Alliance appears in disarray as you said perception wise certainly the BJP on the other hand seems to have got an extra dose of energy they seem to be even more energized than they were before 2019 because of the ram Mand consecration ceremony do you believe that has now pushed Mr Modi onto another level even compared to 2014 and 19 because now it's Ram it's labari and it's uh Hindu no I don't think Ram Mand thing is going to add a great deal of new vote to BJP if it certainly has enthused the BJP Rank and file it has given something to chat and feel good about uh to the voters but I do not see this event of ram Mand bringing them new votes if there is anything it is it has certainly Consolidated their vote the vote is again the vote this time is definitely for the Mr Modi or against him it's not about Ram Mand no what is the bjp's USP in 2024 is it Ram is it Modi or is it vixit bhat it's it's Modi and RAM vixit bat larti hinda everything is now subservient to this brand Modi what is brand Modi what is this secret Source because you worked with him what is the secret source of this brand Modi how is brand Modi in 2024 different to the brand Modi that you worked with in 2014 well Mr modi's strength is that he evolves so and he his whole agenda also evolves every 5 years so in 2002 he's he was the Hindu the samat by 2007 he became this able administrator who could bring development to uh Gujarat by 2014 he uh he evolved as somebody who can change India by 2019 he evolved is somebody who can bring great pride and courage and uh conviction in the story of India by 2024 he is position being positioned as somebody who has brought Ram back to this country that is how he has evolved and everything what they do is is subservient to this Evolution so the The Cult of Modi now is even bigger than that of the BJP people are voting for Modi not the BJP definitely no goes goes without saying I'm not saying they are not voting for BJP but I'm saying a bulk of the vote that is coming their way Modi is the major decisive factor is the Delta how will you respond to those who will say that you go to the field and many uh contesting uh MPS would concede this that but for Modi they would find it very difficult to win with the same track record with same Hindu with same Ram Mand aoria with same labari model just remove Modi many MP candidates of BJP would find it difficult to win because in 2019 interestingly csds postp survey showed that one in every three people who had voted for the BJP had voted because they said they want to vote for Mr Modi so in a sense without Mr Modi the BJP is not the dominant Force you're saying it's like it's like imagining Congress in 1980 without indraa Gandhi you're lightening you you're saying Mr Modi today is in the same space that M Mrs Indira Gandhi was in 1980 he is Indira Gandhi of BJP he's the Indira Gandhi of BJP you're giving me a nice oneliner yeah politically speaking he his ability to catch vote is not necessarily dependent on ideology or or or organization or or the candidate people are straight voting the way they voted for indraa Gandhi people are straight voting for Mr Modi no but since you used the Indira Gandhi analogy let me take that forward many will say that Mr Modi has redrawn the way elections are fought uh by see my comp would not be like by both side but I'm just making this comparison purely on this aspect of people voting directly for Inda Gandhi same way people are voting directly sure but there will be those who will say that the BJP is now or Mr is drawing on a mix of of Media power and religion to overpower the opposition so the opposition has no space in India to to to compete anymore see any leader who builds that kind of brand would have some ideological backing to his or her positioning indraa Gandhi was also seen as IND is India India is IND she had this Charisma and you know the control over State Machinery as we call it in totality mhm be Judiciary Election Commission media all together so it's not that this is the first time we are seeing something of that in India it has happened before in between we have seen uh a coalition government where this absolute control has probably gone little down and also as a society we have evolved those systems are a little bit more robust than what it used to be say in 70s or ' 80s but we have seen the abuse of power by those who have run this country whether it was 350 56 using or misusing Election Commission and media it's not a new phenomena per se the extent or the degree could vary depending on who you are and who is analyzing the situation could choose to say no no no the earlier one was bad but not this bad but it the as a society as a country we have seen it no no the reason I'm asking you this is today opposition leaders are blaming EVMS want us to go back to ballot papers others are saying the enforcement directorate is simply targeting opposition leaders institutions like the election commission have been captured a defe mentality or a a wound a vict a sense of victimhood has gripped the opposition that everybody the system is against us today I I I doubt I I doubt you don't agree with that I don't agree if that is the case I heard Rahul Gandhi saying that free media give media make media free edcv free Election Commission free and I will win somebody need to just ask a common sensical question that in 2014 you were in the Power Media was very much under you Election Commission Judiciary entire system was under you how did you came to 45 they they argue the BJP and Mr Modi have misused uh these powers that you have they have misused Raj stick to that logic that if Congress party is losing only because of Ed CBI me election missery and media Etc then how did they lose in 2014 just tell me that so I'm saying if you lose whoever is in power definitely they will use and would have some strategic Advantage because they have control they have more resource but these Advantage were with you when you were in power still you were defeated you know and BJP with all these Powers it's not that they are not losing election they have lost many elections in last five years no prashan the reason I you know today interestingly Malik Arjun K the Congress president has gone to the extent of saying if Mr Modi wins this could be India's last free and fair election well I I'm not one of those who believe and I could be wrong but I for many years now I have been telling this because he's not the first one many people have raised this issue Arin krial has said this many times other leaders have also said this many commentators also believe and they say this in private also I don't think uh I'm one of those who believe that Mr Modi can completely hijack the whole system here change the Constitution become will become a dictator and India would have no longer a democratic setup I think we are underestimating the might and the wisdom of the common people here uh nobody no matter how individ how strong that individual or party is nobody can steamroll India and 100 1.3 billion Indians Indians are pretty smart they they know where to give power and where to put the break you have seen in Last 5 Years the same Mr Modi has not been able to win Estates as easily as he used to do say between 2014 and 2019 and if you go to Villages and I know you travel Raj a lot you would hear many common people saying common people have this is that a trend that therefore is here to stay that the same voter who may have voted let's say in Karnataka 6 months ago for Saraya May well vote for Mr Modi uh in the general election same voter who may have voted for mam banerji in Bengal 2 three years ago May well vote for Mr Modi we are seeing very distinct changes between vians SAA and loka and they can only grow in the future well this could be argued both way I I have been telling this that if you want to challenge BJP this one data point should give you lot of strength and courage and hope is that Mr is Mr modi's ability to fetch vote for himself versus his ability to get vote for his colleagues or his party if you look at data from 2014 till now between 2014 to 20 2019 the bjp's underperformance in assembly elections were roughly around 3 percentage point that means in vhan SAA only 3 percentage Point BJP vote share was 3 percentage Point lower than the loka between 2014 to 2019 now the under performance in vhan SAA for BJP is close to 9 to 10 percentage point 10 percentage point so that means there are less and this is the declining ability of Mr Modi to transfer vote the double engine model is therefore is not working as effectively when it comes to State elections no when Mr Modi is not on the ticket the BJP was that much more difficult I wouldn't say it is not working but I'm saying it is that much more difficult for Mr Modi to continue getting vote for his uh his party colleagues or his state governments who in eyes of people people may or may not have delivered because one other major Trend that earlier between 20 2019 whoever Mr Modi wanted he said vote for him you I will deliver then people voted sure but if the state governments have not delivered people are not taking Mr modi's word as gospel truth and voting for them they are still giving it to him but in the state elections they are voting very differently so that's one big difference between 2419 and 2019 to 24 the other Trend uh which one notices is north versus South we mention how north and west the bjp's 80 to 90% seats or they dominated 90% of the seats in Western and Northern India Hindi Heartland in particular on the other hand in the South and the East also the BJP has found it much more difficult is that a trend also which you believe is here to stay no I I cannot say where here to stay but it's very clear it's not only North and South East I always say that east and south roughly about 220 seats is starting from biar don't count Bihar in north in biar bjp's votee share is never crossed 25% last time they have won only 17 MPS so if you take biar Bengal urisa Telangana Andra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Kerala this 220 seats BJP gets only about 40 45 seats despite their success in Bihar despite their success in Bengal despite they're doing better in orisha but what is happening because they are completely sweeping north and west these 200 seats or 180 seats which are anti BJP uh uh member parliaments they are of no use and hence if Congress plus these three four key anti-bjp uh formations if they are able to win even 100 seat in West and North the game will change overnight because then these 200 MPS who anyway are winning as non BJP MPS they come into play but you would agree that at the moment it looks extremely unlikely that the opposition can win these 100 seats in West and North it's very difficult very difficult very difficult impossible and more I wouldn't say impossible but more worrying sign is that BJP knows this data as much as you and I I know probably they know more than us and hence you see the bjp's effort and their organizational focus is completely on east and south look at the number of trips Mr Modi has done to Tamil Nadu and caral compared to say madha Pradesh or Rajasthan in outside election time all his visits are to Tamil Nadu to kol look at the effort Amit Shah puts in building Telangana and uh Bengal people are not paying attention in Telangana BJP got 14% vote that's a very good launching pad for a party like BJP to take on Telangana similarly in Tamil Nadu I see BJP getting into double digit votes here this time make no mistake they will anything between 7 to 12 15% vote is possible for BJP in in Tamil Nadu in kol they are already there in around 10% and vote so while BJP is investing in their weak areas opposition is not able to hold either their strong areas or uh get into the new uh areas where they need to work on so I don't see any party whether it's SP or uh say NCP or rjd or congress which is the biggest party in the north and west investing in rebuilding re-energizing taking a new approach to rebuild their party in these states you know you you given that's a nice broad National picture but I I for a moment want to look at your home state since that's the one you've been traveling through extensively over the last 15 months your your Jan surj experience as you travel do you see a mood for change among voters uh do you believe that voters in a state like Bihar also want change want a better life uh because one of the other distinctions between India is the India which is growing at a much faster rate mainly Peninsula India and an India which is growing at extremely slow rates still has high rates of joblessness are these real issues uh before the people that lead them to believe they want political change Raj it's a common sense who doesn't want a better life it's a question of what defines better life for you these states like Bihar the aspirations have been crushed so low that getting 5 kg free Rasen is me fulfilling of the aspiration getting uh uh 500 rupes pension is and fulfilling of an aspiration maybe in Karnataka you have to pay 2,500 but to say that fundamentally people in Bihar doesn't want good life is I think is a very derogatory statement to make it whether it's for Bihar or up or orisha you have to be in their shoes to understand what what their life is how difficult the life is you are talking about better education GDP growth this that they they know people are not getting to eat people are not they don't have house you know in Bihar for example you know the oldest pension is 400 rupees just imagine sitting in Delhi in 400 rupees the poor woman or a man has to live whole month his R his eating his household everything is covered in that 400 rupees no which is precisely what I want to know if it remains an area of Darkness why is it in the last 30 years it's been dominated only by two figures either by Lalu Prasad n in a way nsh Kumar has shown up the entire system he can go with rjd one day BJP one day yeah no it's because the two mainstream large parties who should have taken the responsibility of helping the states like Bihar namely the Congress and BJP both in the interest of getting more MPS in uh Delhi they have sacrificed the interest of people of Bihar it's like what we call the resource crust in Africa the more Min more minerals you have more is the loot similarly what has happened to up and biar these states have been seen by national parties or national formations as the States from where you get the maximum MP so their predominant focus is how to get the maximum MPS from Bihar or up so what happened when Congress was in power a sensible Economist as executive like prime minister he was even he could not think out of box to do something for Bihar because all they were interested in that with the help of luu Yad get some 2025 MPS to run the government in Delhi in return if Lalu wanted to run the government he wanted to run the way he wanted to run in Bihar they overlooked they closed the eyes the same thing unfortunately BJP is doing V nitish Kumar they are quite aware that nitish Kumar is doing nothing they are quite aware that Bihar is the most poorest and the deprived State even today after 15 years of coalition government of BJP and nitish Kumar make no mistake I out of 18 years of nsh Kumar as a CM 15 years he has been CM with BJP but BJP is completely willing to overlook it because they don't want to take the risk of not getting that 30 35 MP seats so they are sacrificing the interest of people of Bihar the children of Bihar because they want 30 seats from but do you believe that cast based parties or Regional parties that are run around a family uh or around a individual like nsh Kumar are they reaching exhaustion point do you believe a stage will come where in the next 10 years people will look for Alternatives or are Regional par is here to stay you've told us Congress you believe is on the decline but our regional part is here to stay yeah so I would make a sweeping comment that there is like a curtain wall that you know from today onwards there will be no original party no cast based party it's a cycle it goes it what goes up will come down if BJP comes down whoever is a strong force there whether is a regional party or congress they will gain if KR is a was a is a original party he declined Congress was there they benefited so whoever is there on the ground whether you are a national party or a regional party whether you are a cast based party or a religion based party if you are there you are fighting people see yourself around you stand a chance because the other person who is ruling if he falls you are there to benefit from it but is cast still very very dominant not just I'm not just looking at BR but across the country prime minister also projects himself interestingly as an OBC face I mean this OBC politics nitish Kumar tried to play cast census it didn't really work Rahul Gandhi has echoed cast census not worked and on the other hand the Prime Minister plays the OBC card but I'm I'm glad you're saying at least because for months you guys have been telling this cast census is going to be the second mandle and this and that and I've been telling it on ground there is no resonance to it no resonance at all no resonance why because you know in politics you can play one thing only once in lifetime you can't do it again and again casting once mundle done dusted people who benefited people who suffered has done now you cannot redo it nitish Kumar tried doing it very quickly he realized that it's not resulting into any electoral gain so that's why he has gone back to BJP play this see cast is an important factor no doubt about if you do politics in India you must understand this reality that cast is one of the major factors but cast is not the only Factor make no mistake cast is not the only Factor look at theate stes where we talk about the cast politics most which is up Bihar today in up and Bihar BJP is getting the maximum vote both States in these states you go and talk to anyone they say no we are not V voting for BJP we are voting for Mr Modi how many people of Mr modi's cast live in up and Bihar so if we are saying that everyone in Bihar and up are voting only basis cast then who is voting for Mr Modi in up and Bihar they are definitely not voting on the basis of cast so there is cast angle there is vh/ Hindu Factor Hindu Muslim Factor the religion aspect the third is this labari governance whatever you call and fourth is your own electoral electoral muscle the organization your ability to convert your support into vote but what does Mr Modi according to you embody today what does he embody that on the other hand Rahul Gandhi does not see there are many depending on who you are you know for many Mr Modi is a selfman man man and Mo and Rahul is a dast that itself is a reason for them to go for Mr Modi you believe that that is still there the Kamar Namar narrative still runs I'm saying nobody can say how much but I'm saying this if you put 10 people in room who are voting for Mr Modi versus Mr Rahul Gandhi and you'll ask why are you voting for Mr Modi I'm sure two or three will say this issue that he's a self-made man and Mr Rahul Gandhi is a dynast there are two three will say that Mr Modi is honest he's not corrupt Mr congress party is corrupt under Gandhi this has they have run a corrupt government there are third element which people will say that under him the Hindu resonance is happening so Hindu is there self-made man is there Incorruptible is there he's a hardworking decisive person he's bringing glory to India all those aspects we cannot say only one aspect so different people find different reasons but put together these eight five six issues which build Mr modi's Persona or the brand which allows people to say okay for this reason I want to be with Mr so as we come to the end I want to look into the future 10 years from now Mr Modi who's been this dominant personality will be in his 80s do you still see a

Channel: India Today

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Id: nAT5OiCktm0

Length: 198min 25sec (11905 seconds)

Published: Fri Mar 01 2024