OpenAI CEO: When will AGI arrive? | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman

so one of the main concerns here is uh something called AI takeoff or a fast takeoff that the exponential Improvement would be really fast to where like in days in days yeah um I mean there's this isn't this is a pretty serious at least to me it's become more of a serious concern just how amazing Chad GPT turned out to be and then the Improvement of gbt4 almost like to where it surprised everyone seemingly you can correct me including you so gpd4 has not surprised me at all in terms of the reception there chat GPT surprised us a little bit but I still was like advocating we'd do it because I thought it was going to do really great yeah um so like you know maybe I thought it would have been like the 10th fastest growing product in history and not the number one fastest they're like okay you know I think it's like hard you should never kind of assume Something's Gonna Be Like the most successful product launch ever um but we thought it was at least many of us thought it was going to be really good gvt4 has weirdly not been that much of an update for most people you know they're like oh it's better than 3.5 but I thought it was going to be better than 3.5 and it's cool but you know this is like someone said to me over the weekend you shipped an AGI and I somehow like I'm just going about my daily life and I'm not that impressed and I obviously don't think we shipped an AGI um but I get the point and the world is continuing on when you build or somebody Builds an artificial general intelligence would that be fast or slow would we know what's happening or not would we go about our day on the weekend or not so I'll come back to the would we go about our day or not thing I think there's like a bunch of interesting lessons from kovid and the UFO videos and a whole bunch of other stuff that we can talk to there but on the takeoff question if we imagine a two by two Matrix of short timelines till AGI starts long timelines till AGI starts slow take off fast takeoff do you have an instinct on what do you think the safest quadrant would be so uh the different options are less next year yeah say the takeoff that we start the takeoff period yeah next year or in 20 years 20 years and then it takes one year or 10 years well you can even say one year or five years whatever you want the takeoff I feel like now is uh is safer so do I so I'm in longer no I'm in these slow take off short timelines is the most likely good world and we optimize the company to have Maximum Impact in that world to try to push for that kind of a world and the decisions that we make are you know there's like probability masses but weighted towards that and I think I'm very afraid of the fast takeoffs I think in the longer timelines it's harder to have a slow take off there's a bunch of other problems too um but that's what we're trying to do do you think gpt4 is an AGI I think if it is just like with the UFO videos uh we wouldn't know immediately I think it's actually hard to know that when I've been thinking I was playing with GPT for and thinking how would I know if it's an AGI or not because I think in terms of uh to put it in a different way um how much of AGI is the interface I have with the thing and how much of it uh is the actual wisdom inside of it like uh part of me thinks that you could have a model that's capable of super intelligence and uh it just hasn't been quite unlocked this is what I saw with Chad GPT just doing that little bit of Ro with human feedback makes the thing somehow much more impressive much more usable so maybe if you have a few more tricks like you said there's like hundreds of Tricks inside open AI a few more tricks and also in holy

Channel: Lex Clips

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Keywords: ai, ai clips, ai podcast, ai podcast clips, artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence podcast, computer science, consciousness, deep learning, einstein, elon musk, engineering, friedman, joe rogan, lex ai, lex clips, lex fridman, lex fridman podcast, lex friedman, lex mit, lex podcast, machine learning, math, math podcast, mathematics, mit ai, philosophy, physics, physics podcast, sam altman, science, tech, tech podcast, technology, turing

Id: ZgN7ZYUxcXM

Length: 4min 37sec (277 seconds)

Published: Tue Mar 28 2023