On Deterrence

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>> It has become increasingly clear that today, nearly 25 years since the end of the Cold War, nuclear deterrence is as important as it was during the Cold War. What has changed is the landscape of deterrents, which has become more complex with increased danger of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism. While deterrence is a dynamic concept it remains the cornerstone of our national security and the security of our friends and allies. If the nuclear community is to move forward in evolving those concepts it needs to do so from a deep appreciation of the value of deterrence in the past. The documentary you are about to see takes a historical look at deterrence, its significance to the present, and its challenges in the future. Today the sustainment of the US strategic deterrent force is a topic of idle interest and a debate is underway about the future of US nuclear forces. Sandia has a role to play in this national debate. We have played a fundamental part in the nuclear deterrence and, thus, in the way that deterrence concepts evolve. The intent of this documentary film is not to advocate any one viewpoint, but to contribute to the dialogue on deterrence as seen through the thoughts of intellectual leaders interviewed in the film who have played key roles in the nuclear deterrence. It is our intent that this film contribute to the discussion of the role of US nuclear weapons in the practice of deterrence in the 21st Century. [ Music ] >> Is deterrence timeless? >> I think it's been around for at least 2,000 or 3,000 years of recorded history, yes. >> The first time that a human being picked up a stick and had an advantage over a larger adversary that was a change, and weapons developed through the course of history and finally reached a stage with the nuclear weapon that for the first time ever wars could not be won. >> Nuclear weapons were a gamechanger because they did involve the total destruction of a society. It meant the entire destruction of cities and in a major attack the entire destruction of a country. >> History is replete with examples of nations that miscalculated the potential costs of conflict or confrontation. With nuclear weapons that miscalculation is much harder to make. >> What nuclear weapons do is make impossible to believe that any adversary could fight the United States and achieve a set of political and military objectives without incurring so much damage to itself as to make it not worthwhile as an endeavor. [ Music ] >> One of the real challenges about deterrence is that you never really know what works, right? Because if it works there are many possible explanations for what went right. You can only definitively say when deterrence fails. >> Well, I think, first of all, deterrents didn't work very well before there were nuclear weapons. We had two World Wars. >> World War I erupted in 1914 out of intrigue, misperception, miscalculation and a set of inflexible offensive war plans. [ Music ] The 1939 German onslaught into Poland was savage. Their conquest of Western Europe in 1940 was achieved in months. [ Music ] Conventional war expanded into the Pacific theatre and on a scale unseen in the 20th Century. [ Music ] By the summer of 1945 two World Wars had been fought, leaving upwards of 72 million dead, Europe and Asia in ruins. The Westphalian great power balance shattered. [ Music ] And bequeathing the world a revolution in both military capability and the practice of deterrence. [ Music ] >> So that created a strategic pause, I believe, in large scale warfare. >> And nuclear weapons, therefore, modified the behaviors of big powers towards one another as never before in history. >> States would have to confront the possibility of being highly vulnerable to other states with long range weapons and with terrific destructive capacities. In the future military forces are going to be needed to deter a war, to prevent wars, rather than to fight them. >> Deterrence is the effort to dissuade an adversary from doing something that you perceive as threatening. >> By presenting a situation in which the costs of pursuing that course of action far outweigh any expected benefits. >> Deterrence is really a psychological affect, it's a psychological pressure that's imposed by one decision making party onto another decision making party that constrains the deterred's set of actions. >> Part of that is trying to understand how they think, what they're trying to accomplish, what they hope to gain, how they hope to do that, how they think about risk and gains. >> Now how you put that into practice, that's where it becomes murkier. [ Music ] >> In 1946 planning with nuclear weapons was largely an academic exercise and nuclear deterrence remained an unfamiliar concept. In an April 1947 report of the newly formed Atomic Energy Commission revealed an unassembled stockpile of a mere 13 fission bombs, that Air Force planners initially regarded as simply larger conventional weapons. But in a post-war world this was about to change. [ Music ] The Soviet blockade of West Berlin in 1948. A war in Korea in 1950. A crisis over the Islands of the Taiwan Straits in 1954. And a second challenge to the integrity of West Berlin in 1961. All drove the development of a vast US nuclear arsenal and a policy of deterrence to guide war planning. Deterrence in practice began as ad hoc nuclear signaling exercised by Truman. It would veer perilously towards brinksmanship during the Eisenhower years, and then the concept would evolve rapidly among civilian nuclear strategists with principles like first strike, secure second strike, and mutually assured destruction. >> During the Cold War the American economists and gang theorist, Tom Shelling [Assumed Spelling], compared two states with nuclear weapons engaged in crises as a game of chicken. He said it's like two teenagers going towards each other in cars, the first one swerves, loses, the one who has more nerve can win a crisis, even though neither side obviously wants to crash. That game of chicken became an analogy that people used to talk about the importance of resolve in crises. >> These are medium range. These are intermediate range. Both have nuclear strike capabilities. >> The 1962 Cuban missile crisis was the historical moment when nuclear weapons and theories about their use and their nonuse were at hand. Deterrents did not fail, but many argue by only the narrowest of margins. >> Kennedy in his Monday night speech said if so much of a single one of those weapons explodes anywhere in the American hemisphere we will consider that as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union. >> Now nothing could be stupider than that. I don't think Khrushchev or anyone over there believed it, but I think maybe they thought that guy is just crazy enough he might do it. >> The threat that leaves something to chance, you can still credibly threaten to fall off a cliff by coming up close to it, even though you can't credibly threaten that I'm going to voluntarily jump over the cliff. We've forgotten that central lesson that deterrence can work, but that's really risky. >> And many people that have stressed that they thought the biggest single affect of nuclear weapons was that it put people in this position where they couldn't easily be sure absolute disaster wouldn't happen. [ Music ] >> During the first 15 years of the Cold War nuclear learning between the super powers was uneven at best. >> There was profound fear in the early part of the Cold War, particularly pre-October 1962, pre-Cuba. I think the dangers were significantly higher than they're often played to be and I think there weren't well-established rules of the game between two actors who understood one another. >> I would say that the first 15 years were a model of how not to progress. >> There was this notion that we might be on the edge of an apocalypse. I don't think that we military officers in that era had completely internalized what nuclear war would be. I think we expected that there was a good possibility we'd be at war with the Soviet Union, I certainly did. >> Prior to the Cuban missile crisis there were really no rules about the US-Soviet nuclear relationship and it was quite unstable as all these crises revealed. >> One of the first crises after the end of the war was over Berlin, for example. >> The struggle for control of post-war Berlin would provide the first context for the use of nuclear weapons to signal resolve in a crisis. A four-power agreement to jointly govern the city was a key part of the Potsdam Declaration in 1945. Less than three years later in 1948 with Germany split along an ideological and economic divide and Berlin, a landlocked island 100 miles inside of the Russian sector, Stalin directly challenged the agreement and blocked all access to the city. The US responded with what became known as the Berlin airlift. >> In a single month Tempelhof[EB1] handled almost 14,000 takeoffs and landings, around the clock, seven days a week. The biggest item was coal, packed in war surplus duffle bags for power, heat and light. The eyes of the Western world watched the airlift. >> And that is probably the first example of the affect of nuclear weapons. >> We had nuclear weapons and Stalin didn't yet, and we did brandish nuclear weapons as part of our response to the Berlin blockade. >> The United States embraced an intermediate range of actions to ratchet up the risk of escalation to war a little bit each time. >> 1948 we had a nuclear monopoly at that point. We moved B29s to Britain. We reopened American airbases that had been shut ever since 1945. And we announced that some of the bombers being moved to Britain were, quote, nuclear capable, which apparently was a lie because they hadn't - these weren't the ones that had been retrofitted to carry nuclear weapons but it was a useful lie. >> You can see almost palpably the presence of a degree of caution, which I think can reasonably be imputed to the existence of nuclear weapons. >> So that you could use nuclear weapons, you just didn't have to fire a nuclear weapon to use it, and the sort of nuclear signaling at its first manifestation in the 1948 Berlin crisis. >> Truman's nuclear signaling contributed to the termination of the Berlin crisis of 1948, but his willingness to use nuclear threats changed after the detection of the first Soviet atomic test in August 1949, an event that ended the short-lived US atomic monopoly and pointed to a future when both the US and the Soviets would possess a first strike capability. Meanwhile, the early 1950s would remain a time of US nuclear primacy and Eisenhower was keen to leverage this advantage. >> He deliberately employed rhetoric, political posturing, a sort of a brinksmanship. >> Eisenhower's approach was pretty absolutist, all or nothing. I mean his - he didn't believe in halfway measures. >> In May 1953 Eisenhower and his Secretary of State, John Foster Dulles, initiated planning for the use of nuclear weapons to end the stalemated war in Korea. >> They put out some diplomatic word quietly that if the Communists didn't come to an armistice the United States was willing to use more severe measures. There's been a view that the signal never got to the other side. It was supposed to go through Naru [Assumed Spelling], one of these signals, and there was some question about whether he ever told the Chinese the Americans meant to do this. >> Many attribute the end of the Korean War more to the loss of Soviet sponsorship after Stalin's death and exhaustion on all sides, rather than a veiled nuclear threat. As well, some contend that in the aftermath of Hiroshima a moral opprobrium against the use of nuclear weapons, a nuclear taboo, obviated Eisenhower's threat. >> It imposed a restraining affect on the Administration. It prevented a casual resort to the use of nuclear weapons is the indirect influence of the taboo, right? That these weapons are not normal weapons, they're not just like any other weapon, they can't be used casually. And I think we see that in the decision-making leading up to the end of the war. >> Eisenhower's nuclear threat remains ambiguous, perhaps deliberately so. In early 1955 a new crisis with China over disputed offshore islands would again test Eisenhower's policy and practice of deterrence. >> Now in any combat where these things can be used on strictly military targets and for strictly military purposes I see no reason they shouldn't be used just exactly as you'd use a bullet or anything else. >> Eisenhower would sort of play things by ear, but always with the greater aim of not using these things, of bluffing with them, threatening with them, but not, ultimately not using them. >> Eisenhower was not bluffing. That public statement was completely consistent with internal private discussions and also completely just consistent with national security documents. >> With respect to Ike's willingness to use nuclear weapons, he probably exaggerated it. In the game of deterrence a little braggadocio helps from time to time. >> And, of course, in the 1950s when President Eisenhower was in office he adopted the policy of massive retaliation. We relied very heavily on nuclear weapons to deal with this Soviet conventional threat. Massive retaliation was all about getting more bang for the buck. >> And President Eisenhower believed that the biggest threat to the United States was economic and so the more bang for the buck strategy seemed rational. >> The whole idea of massive retaliation was that any aggression anywhere runs the risk of being met by nuclear retaliation by the United States. >> It was a doctrine, however repugnant in some ways, that was suitable to the times. >> Basic was central deterrence, deterring a direct attack on the American homeland by the Soviets was now underpinned by US strategic nuclear forces. By 1953 B47 bombers could reach targets in Russia by a system of forward bases, established during the Second World War. That same year the United States began to deploy nuclear weapons in Europe, extending nuclear deterrents to NATO allies after it became clear that the fledgling Alliance could not muster the conventional forces needed to face 100 or more Soviet Divisions. >> They were outmatched at the conventional level, and the way that the United States and NATO dealt with this problem was to rely on nuclear weapons through various arrangements where West German pilots and planes could use US nuclear weapons. >> The United States deployed tactical nuclear weapons to manifest a threat that would leave something to chance. That if the Soviets invaded with 100 Divisions into Western Europe some of these tactical nuclear weapons on the American and NATO side would go off, even if we didn't want them to. >> Nuclear deterrents operated and in the end induced caution, but it also allowed and potentially in some ways enabled a brinksmanship that also involved the serious risk of war. >> The early Cold War saw two American Presidents grapple with how to use nuclear weapons. Truman and Eisenhower used them to bargain, compel, deter and assure with mixed results. [ Music ] >> Today a new moon is in the sky, a 23-inch metal sphere placed in orbit by a Russian rocket. >> An era of US nuclear primacy would yield to a period when the Soviets began to acquire the capability to launch a devastating first strike against the US, a condition that would test the credibility of the US extended deterrent and lead to the establishment of rules of the game. >> If you had a capacity to destroy the other side by attacking first and the other side got close to having the same thing, the pressure in a crisis to go first would be terribly destabilizing. >> In this context it was the Soviets that threatened. The Cold War had now entered a new, more dangerous phase when Nikita Khrushchev issued the 1958 ultimatum on the status of Berlin, challenging the US extended deterrent. >> 2.8 million refugees that had left Eastern Germany for West Germany since 1945, that left a country of only 17 million people in East Germany and it was 2.8 million of the best and brightest of the country. >> When the Berlin crisis happens everybody wants to gear up our conventional forces so that maybe we've got a conventional battle against the Soviets. The President says we're not doing that because that could turn into a nuclear war, you can't control that. Eisenhower says all along, he says we're doing this because we do this it's all or nothing. He used the poker analogy in the National Security meeting, he said we're not going to slowly escalate from the white chips conventional forces to the blue chips nuclear weapons. If we do this we're going all the way, it's all or nothing. >> Eisenhower would probably have used nuclear weapons in defense of Western Europe. As Herman Kahn once eloquently put it, Kennedy said that he would use nuclear weapons but he wouldn't, whereas, Eisenhower said he wouldn't use nuclear weapons and he would have. >> Eisenhower believed that you had to plausibly threaten across the nuclear threshold in order to prevent the Soviets and East Germans from presenting a conventional war challenge to the integrity of Berlin. And for the Kennedy Administration they were much more concerned about having to fight an actual war with the Soviet Union and they were much less confident in their ability to deter that war. >> In Khrushchev's view the credibility of the extended US deterrent starts eroding with the election of Kennedy. He knows from his Intelligence that Kennedy is much less comfortable with the notion of risking millions of US lives over the future of Berlin. As far as Kennedy is concerned he's been handed a set of nuclear options that he thinks gives him a choice of, quote, holocaust or humiliation. [ Music ] >> I think that Khrushchev at the Vienna Summit had concluded that the new President was weak and, therefore, he engaged in this kind of bombast. >> Khrushchev came in pushing hard, demanding, being somewhat threatening, insisting that something had to be done about the Berlin situation. And the President had tried to be conciliatory to suggest, well, we should talk, we should be careful about how dangerous this situation could be and so on. >> That led to the feeling that Kennedy was having a loss of face, that he wasn't being treated with respect and credibility by the Soviet Union. >> This was part of the difficulty of worrying about credibility was that you didn't know what would be crucial in affecting other people's estimate of it. >> If you think about deterrence in general, credible deterrence is really both a function of capability and will as perceived by your adversary. >> The real key is whether the other side believes that the leader has the will to use nuclear weapons in extremes. >> Deterrents depends upon the perception that it will be used and, most importantly, not the perception of our possible foes but on those whom we seek to protect. >> The climax of the President's European trip takes place in London. >> Kennedy left Vienna deeply troubled by his meeting with Khrushchev. The Soviet Premier had effectively threatened the young President with war if the matter of Berlin was left unresolved. >> The President wanted to be tougher on Berlin so he escalated the Berlin military situation by sending more troops to Europe. >> He talked tough about Berlin. >> The source of world trouble and tension is Moscow, not Berlin, and if war begins it will have begun in Moscow and not Berlin. >> East German troops look down on the border between red Berlin and the free city in the pre-dawn hours. To close the 66 points where movement between the ... >> For the first 48 hours it's not a wall, it's barbed wire, it's sawhorses, it's temporary barriers, as they wait to see how the US and the Allies will respond. And when the East Germans, the Soviets see that the US is not responding they start building a more permanent barrier. >> The crisis was diffused because Khrushchev built a wall, but I think there was a lingering affect that Khrushchev was sort of dubious and he felt that Kennedy was weak. >> What made the situation dangerous in 1961 and then 1962 isn't our capability, that was pretty clear, but it was our adversary's understanding that we were unwilling to use it in situations they were willing to risk. >> This Government, as promised, has maintained the closest surveillance of the Soviet military buildup on the Island of Cuba. A series of offensive missile sites is now in preparation on that imprisoned Island. >> Some argue that Khrushchev's challenge to extend a deterrence in Berlin spilled over into a crisis that would test the credibility of the basic deterrent of the United States. >> There would have been no Cuban missile crisis had Khrushchev not concluded through Berlin in 1961 that he could risk putting nuclear weapons for the first time in history within reach of Washington, D.C. and New York City just off the coast of Florida. >> Kennedy was humiliated in 1961 at the Vienna meeting. He was pushed around by Khrushchev, so he had to look extra tough by the time of the Cuban missile crisis. >> But one of the things that made Kennedy a good President, although he talked tough he was also a realist. By talking tough, but actually by being willing to make a deal, we traded away, the United States traded away its missiles in Europe for the Soviet missiles in Cuba. >> So Khrushchev was willing to sort of try to take more chips off the poker table, say, over Berlin, to some extent over Cuba, but ultimately he was not willing to go into war because I think Khrushchev understood very well that the US nuclear was fundamentally was credible. >> Kennedy restored that credibility, but not before reaching the brink of war. >> Both Khrushchev and Kennedy understood that important mistakes had been made, glitches had shown up, things had been done that they didn't want to see done. The Navy was busy trying to force Soviet subs to surface. >> But the missile crisis in October 1962 was a terrifying event, especially if you're the supreme decision maker whose hand is on the button. I don't think Kennedy slept much during those 13 days. >> The mere fact that the consequences of nuclear use are so horrendous is what makes leaders, and I'm choosing my words carefully here, incredibly cautious in crises. >> Khrushchev came away from the crisis with a guarantee of Cuban sovereignty, but his challenge of the US nuclear deterrent was a miscalculation that almost led to war and ended his leadership of the Soviet Union. [ Music ] Kennedy discovered that establishing and maintaining a credible extended deterrent was a highly nuanced challenge, one that remains so to this day. >> All free men, wherever they may live, are citizens of Berlin and, therefore, as a free man I take pride in the words, Ich bin ein Berliner. [Applause] >> After Cuba both sides are so terrified that they do step back a bit and rules of the games start to emerge, but even those rules of the game are not indefinitely persistent. >> The core logic of the nuclear revolution revolves around the idea of the fear of retaliation. No sane leader would use nuclear weapons if there's even a possibility of an adversary using nuclear weapons in retaliation. That applies to conditions of mutual assured destruction, mutual assured retaliation. The question is does that condition adhere today? When you look around the world today and you see the variety of states that have nuclear weapons, the variety of arsenals in terms of size and capability, this is nothing like the super power rivalry that we witnessed in the Cold War. [ Music ] >> But the first breathtaking act of defiance against his new regime had already been shown on television screens throughout the rest of the world. >> The Cold War ended unexpectedly 30 years after the Cuban crisis. Those decades were a time of arms racing, arms control and a codification of nuclear deterrence between the super powers. In 1991 many predicted that in a new world order the role of nuclear weapons would recede, but since then some have argued that a second nuclear age is emerging where nuclear weapons remain a persistent reality. >> President Bush said nobody won, nobody lost the Cold War, everybody won because this war was over without a shot being fired, peacefully, great. >> When the Soviet Union broke up there was a very brief period of euphoria. [ Music ] >> I think the Russians believed if they just got all this Communist control stuff out of the way and they just removed all the obstacles to a dynamic vibrant free enterprise, capitalistic system that it would emerge. >> The Russians understood they were in trouble, but they didn't understand how much trouble they were in. >> What you had basically in all of the countries that emerged from the Soviet Union, including Russia, was they went into economic freefall. [ Music ] >> Suddenly they were all starved. And they were disrespected, they didn't have any influence on the international scene. >> My daughter traveled to Russia in 1992. She and some of her high school friends were walking on the arbot [Assumed Spelling] and one of her male friends wanted a Russian, a Soviet Naval overcoat. And some guy fixer came up on the arbot. The guy said, wait here. In fifteen minutes he came later, he came back with a Naval overcoat. It was still warm. He'd gone out and thumped a Soviet or a Russian sailor and stolen his overcoat. I think it captured the degree to which everything was for sale and how desperate things were in Russia. >> The economic and social collapse touched every quarter of Russian society. [ Music ] >> A vast part of the military forces were essentially inoperative, they just weren't working. >> It was equivalent of the Great Depression in the United States in terms of the widespread economic chaos that was produced and the terrible damage and the terrible damage to people's confidence. >> I was working Navy issues in the '90s and I was on a visit to the Russian-Pacific fleet. And I can remember talking to a Russian captain second rank, Himblada Mostock [Assumed Spelling], in the winter who walked 14 kilometers to and from work because he couldn't afford to take the bus. >> I was over in Russia six or seven times during these years and got to understand how life actually lived for these nuclear scientists and engineers. The fare that I paid for a cab to go from the hotel in Moscow to the airport one day was probably close to a month's wage for one of the scientists. There were a number of initiatives that were focused upon securing the physicists in Russia, making sure that they had sufficient income and were focused on more peaceful things than going to third countries and developing, for example, nuclear weapons. >> A silo is destroyed and the former Soviet Union moves closer to reducing its nuclear armory. >> Throughout the 1990s the Russian Federation with American assistance, led by Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar, consolidated and secured the former Soviet stockpile. Late in the decade events unfolding in Western Europe appeared to many Russians as an unexpected challenge to their national security. >> We started to build a Europe whole and free. How do we do that? We expand NATO. >> When they were weak we pushed very hard, we expanded NATO, we broke what the Soviets, what the Russians thought was a deal in terms of moving NA TO right up next to their borders. >> The Russians have told themselves a story and their story is we had a wink and a nod with the Americans that if we agreed to the peaceful unification of Germany NATO wouldn't be expanded. >> What we tried to do in the '90s was come up with a way to reassure Russia that as NATO expanded it would not present a military threat, that NATO had no requirement, no plan and no intention of putting nuclear weapons on the soil of the new allies. >> But I believe by pushing NATO up against the borders of Russia these sorts of things gave the Russians the sense that they had been defeated, ground down, they were worthless and we were walking over them. that was not the intent, but I believe that is what put in this revaunchism. >> What you see being manifested today and Putin's attitudes are very much shaped by that humiliation. >> And you have Vladimir Putin, who really has as a primary goal trying to regain some measure of that super power status for Moscow that Moscow enjoyed during the Cold War. >> And how does Putin do this? He does this with nationalism. He puts out symbols, whether it be himself wrestling or doing manly activities, and this resonates with the Russian public. I think Russian nationalism is the single most important driver in Russia's nuclear weapons policy. >> The Koushwasha [Assumed Spelling] has a large number of nuclear weapons because it has a large arsenal. It's the one state that can sit at the table with the United States and have an equal negotiation. >> And I think there's a certain amount of stature and significance that comes from that, but I think the principal motivator is really the ability of those weapons to provide strategic deterrents to protect them from threats they perceive, whether valid or not. >> Nobody I know thinks NATO is going to invade the Russian Federation, but it doesn't matter what we think. If the Russians think they have to guard against that then they have to guard against that. >> Many believe that Russian strategic thinking continues to be dominated by a defensive mentality, a believe that Russia is surrounded by adversaries. [ Music ] Today Russia retains thousands of strategic and nonstrategic nuclear weapons. Its military doctrine relies on these weapons. The Russian Federation reserves the right to utilize nuclear weapons in the event of aggression involving the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the State is under threat. >> The Russians have essentially adopted the NATO nuclear strategy of flexible response, saying that we will try to defend with conventional forces, but if necessary we will defend our vital interests with nuclear weapons. >> They would say they live in a tough neighborhood, they don't have the conventional capabilities to deal with all of these potential threats and that they need tactical nuclear weapons in order to deter. >> Does Russia view tactical nuclear weapons as super artillery, if you like, or does Russia view them as tools for signaling, as a means of showing that it's willing to escalate? >> One of the answers is that the Russians use these weapons as weapons of intimidation and coercion. >> While Russian tactical weapons don't threaten us, they look pretty strategic if you're living in Poland. >> The Russians ran a military exercise in Belarus, the Zapad 2009 exercise that concluded with the use of nuclear weapons, and I think it was very much designed to send a message to the Baltic States and Poland. And the message they received was there is a Russian military threat that continues towards central Europe and that has had an impact within NATO Councils. >> An attack on one ally is an attack on all allies and must be met with an appropriate response, that's the heart of the Article V guarantee of the Alliance, and so NATO needs to remain a defensive alliance. >> I think for the newer NATO members they don't make a distinction between the means you would use to honor the Article V guarantee and, therefore, they want there to be no mistake at all that the Article V guarantee will be honored wholesale and preferably it will be honored by deterrents that will prevent war in the first place. >> Despite the euphoria that accompanied the end of the Cold War the promises of globalization and a Europe whole and free, Russian nationalism and its nuclear weapons persist on the continent. >> The key variable is Ukraine. As long as Ukraine remains a buffer between Russia and Eastern Europe the East Europeans will not worry much about the Russian threat. I think should a war break out between Ukraine and Russia that looks like the war between Russia and Georgia this would scare the East Europeans and the West Europeans very much. >> And I think that that's what Putin is after. I think Ukraine is the big prize there and I think he won't rest easy until he has a pro-Russian government. I'd be amazed if some of the Ukrainians weren't feeling like they made a terrible mistake in giving up their nuclear weapons. >> But let me add this little footnote of history, I was in Russia when there was a dispute between Russia and the Ukraine in the 1990s whether they would give up those weapons. I was there with the top military people in Russia having a meeting when that subject was very hot and it was on the front burner. >> The delegation received strong hints that Ukraine might assert a claim to the strategic nuclear missiles. >> I walked away from that meeting totally convinced that if the Ukraine did not give up their nuclear weapons we were talking about a war. The Russians were not about to let those weapons, 1,800 warheads and missiles, remain on Ukrainian soil. So for those Ukrainians that are looking back and saying, my, wouldn't it have been great, wouldn't we have deterred this Crimea move by Russia. I think that's a totally false premise. [ Music ] >> To the dismay of its neighbors Russia remains a state dependent on [ Music ] weapons as a key element of strategic war planning. Conversely, the United States regards nuclear weapons as weapons of last resort and as a matter of policy seeks to reduce reliance upon them for deterrents. As a practical matter, US nuclear employment strategy acknowledges Russia's large nonstrategic or tactical nuclear force and it recognizes that Russia remains the United States' only peer in nuclear weapons capabilities. Despite America's overwhelming superiority in conventional arms or perhaps because of it the United States is a contingent nuclear power. >> The United States because of its technological sophistication and its conventional military advantages has the luxury of being able to think of a world without nuclear weapons. >> The United States will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons. To put an end to Cold War thinking we will reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy and urge others to do the same. [applause] >> Now the problem that confronts the United States is that there are other powers in the international system that do not share the same good fortunes, which is they don't have technological superiority, they don't have conventional force superiority. >> And in those circumstances it's no surprise that those states will rely on nuclear threats to protect themselves against US conventional power. >> Where Russia believes, and I think with some reason, that their conventional forces are inferior to those of not only the United States but certainly those of NATO and that, therefore, they need their nuclear forces to compensate for that inferiority. Today I do not see a threat from Russia, an existential threat to the United States. Russia, indeed, has the capability to do that, but no intent to do it and no reason to do it. >> But we still are dealing with the old threats where we have rivals and where we have fears and historical animosities. So it's a tough world. I'm sure those folks over in the Pentagon who are trying to figure out what's going to happen in the next 10 years or 15 years, that's a tough job. >> I was involved in the nuclear past review in '93-'94 in the heyday right after the end of the Cold War. We wanted a future with Russia where they were more democratic, we were partners than adversaries, but we don't know where they're headed. And so I don't see us sizing our force to be significantly less than Russia's force. >> America's strategic nuclear force structure is known as a Triad with land based Minuteman III ballistic missiles in hardened silos, Trident's D-5 ballistic missiles carried by Ohio class submarines and two types of air delivered nuclear weapons, deliverable by the bombers. >> Taken together as a whole, as a package, they compensate for their individual vulnerabilities and they add to the overall strength and credibility of the US nuclear deterrent. >> The 2010 nuclear posture review states that Russia's nuclear force will remain a significant factor in determining how much and how fast we are prepared to reduce US forces. Many claim that rough parity with Russia remains a requirement of US posture. >> If we did not have to worry about deterring Russia then our nuclear forces could be much smaller, we could carry out extended deterrence missions with a much smaller force. But that's not the case today. >> Our so-called nuclear umbrella now extends to close to 30 countries and if very many of them begin to believe that we're not serious about our protection then naturally they're going to seek to have that kind of protection themselves. >> The extended deterrence is a very complicated relationship and it's a double-sided relationship. It involves the United States offering a deterrent threat against a nuclear armed or a heavily conventionally armed country which threatens our allies. [ Music ] And it also involves reassuring our allies that we will come to their defense with all means available to us up to and including nuclear weapons if necessary. So extended deterrence is working today, as indeed it worked during the dark days of the Cold War. >> That was the challenge of the 1960s, trying to find solutions that were credible in the eyes of our allies, that we would come to their defense in a nuclear war fight even if it involved threats to the American homeland. That coupling question is still the question at the core of our dialogue with our allies today. >> Today a number of US nuclear weapons remain in NATO Europe where they have come to be regarded as important political symbols. The B61 gravity bombs and the willingness of NATO nations to share the burden of their deployment underpins NATO's nuclear deterrent. >> For the new NATO nations they like the idea that they joined a nuclear alliance, somehow that sounds stronger than a nonnuclear alliance. And the symbol of that being a nuclear alliance is that there are American weapons in Europe. >> It's not enough to say, in my view, that there are nuclear weapons based in the heartland of the United States that are going to extend deterrents under any and all conceivable scenarios. There is a value of having those nuclear weapons placed in a location close to where you want the deterrent affect to be achieved. >> I've said that nuclear weapons are like the wedding ring in a marriage, they are the symbol of commitment but they're not the commitment itself. There are cultures where one does not wear a wedding ring and they're perfectly committed to their spouses. Some who make the argument that if you take nuclear weapons out of NATO because they're the symbol of commitment it will destroy the alliance when there other alliances that we are very committed to. South Korea and Japan, for instance, where we don't have that symbol and yet the commitment is very strong. [ Music ] >> The importance of US bilateral security commitments to East Asian allies would be underscored by an event unfolding in late 1964. The first Chinese test was initially seen as a nuclear capability enhancing the Sino-Soviet block. Today many believe that China's proliferation arose as an existential deterrent and marked the beginning of a second nuclear age. [ Music ] >> I don't think at the time it was thought of as a great strategic event because we were still in the posture of looking at Russia-China or Soviet Union-China as a single opponent. >> But I think there was great surprise that a country as primitive as China had been at the time could have accomplished what it did. >> Well, in Mao's own words he wanted to, quote, smash nuclear bullying, and he made the case that the United States had wielded a big nuclear club in dealing with various skirmishes in the 1950s. Less explicit, but still a part of the calculation was that the Soviet Union was also a looming problem. >> Mao may have been as much concerned about Russia even then as he was about the United States in making a decision to acquire nuclear weapons. >> I view this as China's declaration of independence away from the Soviet Union. They wanted a kind of third world bomb that would impress the peoples of the third world, and they sort of got both of those things. >> And at the time Beijing's deterrent policy really was an existential deterrence. You have nuclear weapons, now we have some, too. >> I define the second nuclear age as the spread of nuclear weapons for reasons that have nothing to do with the Cold War. >> A nuclear weapon capability in the hands of a harsh regime, one exhibiting aggressive revisionist ambitions and whose leader expressed a willingness to use nuclear weapons even at the cost of devastating retaliation, unsettled both Moscow and Washington. >> The Peoples Republic of China in the 1960s was considered what today we would call a rogue state. There was great concern in the United States, but even greater concern among Chinese neighbors. >> I think perhaps the best and most pertinent example is Tokyo where after the test in 1964 a delegation of liberal democratic leaders came to the Prime Minister raising the issue of creating an independent nuclear deterrent and that directly led to discussions by the Prime Minister with President Johnson at their Summit to reinforce the deterrent, the umbrella, and particularly the nuclear aspect of the umbrella. >> We managed to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of the Japanese through a combination of strong nonproliferation pressure, no doubt, but ultimately also supplemented by US nuclear guarantees. >> The Chinese posture for a long time was to have a handful, a couple dozen big lumbering nuclear weapons and that, I would say, was a minimal deterrence and they were comfortable with that. >> They want us to believe that their nuclear policy is organized around no first use, no extended deterrence, and what they call a lean and effective deterrent. >> Describing the Chinese nuclear posture as it has evolved ever since the first explosion of a Chinese nuclear weapon is very, very difficult because the Chinese have been particularly opaque. >> Today China's astonishing economic growth, together with the unresolved matter of Taiwan, remain key issues for the United States and its allies. [ Music ] >> We don't know how China is going to evolve. At some point they most likely will surpass the United States at being the world's biggest and most prosperous economy. At that point they can afford whatever number of weapon systems they want. >> From our view they have not scaled up terribly fast, nor are they terribly threatening based on the actions being taken today. >> If we decide that it is inevitable that there'll be a deep rivalry our behavior will ensure that that comes true. >> I think as China grows in economic capacity it will behave like all great powers in the past. And so I see a looming Sino-US competition, not simply over C lanes of communication, but increasingly in the cyber realm, increasingly in space, and then increasingly over the airspaces. [ Music ] >> The nuclear aspect is going to be a bedrock that allows them to have this competition in the belief that it won't get out of hand. That's why they've now got the gen class, so-called type 94. >> As Chinese military power becomes more formidable, not necessarily only at the nuclear level but also at the conventional level, it will become more problematic for the United States to say we will come to your aid with a nuclear response if such and such happens on the Chinese side, if the Chinese do this or that, that to you. >> The concerns that keep Japanese policymakers up at night are not of a nuclear attack from China or an invasion of China, it's much lower level violence than that. It's Chinese military encroachment on disputed territory, such as the Senkaku Islands. And to that end I think in those lower level situations nuclear weapons play a relatively little role. >> There's no question conventional forces are very central to preserving stability, but if you don't have at least an answer to a potential escalation by your opponent to the nuclear level you're going to be in a lot of trouble. So I think everything takes place shadowed by nuclear weapons. >> The shadow of nuclear weapons in the Asia-Pacific region was initially cast by the United States a decade before China first tested. After the 1953 Korean Armistice the US made nuclear guarantees to South Korea to deter an invasion by the North. Those guarantees remain part of the geopolitical landscape to this day. >> On the Korean Peninsula today we have a conflict that's frozen. A political circumstance that appears to be unacceptable to the peoples of the Korean Peninsula of both states. And the North build a very substantial conventional force which has withered, so it is over time shifted to weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. >> And the North Korea key issue is that if North Korea can do it anybody can do it because they were one of the most technologically backward countries in the world. >> They firmly believed just the position of the bombs, the threat that they're going to make a mess someplace is enough to keep the Americans out. So for them deterrence actually, you know, works the other way, they're deterring us. >> From what? Deter us from defending South Korea? No, I don't think that's - but I just don't think their nuclear aspirations are complicated. It gives them a place on the world scene. [ Music ] >> When you think about American grand strategy we have commitments all around the world. Many of our closest allies face potential adversaries armed with nuclear weapons. And so the possibility of the United States fighting a conventional war against a nuclear armed adversary is far from implausible. >> The risk of inadvertent escalation is real. The risk of unpredictable decision making by a regime who faces regime collapse and their reach for the nuclear tool is also real. >> So that's one of the reasons why, frankly, I think that having our military forces out there, having those forces have nuclear capabilities is at least a constant reminder that Kim Jong-un and those around him that there would be a very high price to be paid in the event that they used nuclear weapons. >> The argument is sometimes made the 20th Century was the century of European and Trans-Atlantic nuclear order and the 21st Century will be the Asian nuclear century. We can hope that the proposition is right, that nuclear weapons over time will have a stabilizing and pacifying influence and will be tools for deterrence and assurance and not compellence, coercion and aggression in Asia. It's too early to tell. >> One lesson that can be drawn from the first nuclear age is that nations chose to proliferate for reasons having less to do with the Cold War and more to do with national self-interest. >> The French, they understand what happens when your country is invaded by a hostile force. It is a very visceral feeling. So for them nuclear deterrents I think is viewed a little differently. [ Music ] >> The 1960s saw both the spread of nuclear weapons and the establishment of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. The decades to follow would be a period of nonproliferation and its challengers. Less than six months after the confrontation with the Soviets over Cuba President Kennedy spoke to the threat of nuclear proliferation. >> With nuclear weapons distributed all through the world and the strong reluctance of any people to accept defeat I see the possibility in the 1970s or the President of the United States having to face a world in which 15 or 20 or 25 nations may have these weapons. I regard that as the greatest possible danger and hazard. >> We've seen a number of possible ways of nuclear proliferation, and there was clearly a wave forming in the 1960s. >> We started out with the United States and the Soviet Union and the United Kingdom, and then France, and then China. >> It looked like there was going to be a general embrace of nuclear weapons in the international system. Significant actors couldn't afford to be left behind. >> When the French decided to opt for their own independent nuclear deterrent that was not a decision made in Washington and it actually caused some significant recalculation by Washington and by Moscow. >> We and the Soviets shared a common desire, the people who didn't have nuclear weapons now, not get them. And so work with the Soviet Union to create the modern nonproliferation regime. >> In 1968 a milestone treaty instituted a grand political bargain. In exchange for a commitment from the nonnuclear weapon states to apure the bomb, the five nuclear weapon states pledged to facilitate the peaceful use of nuclear energy by all parties to the treaty and to work towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. >> The nuclear nonproliferation regime is the important normative framework guiding the politics, right, of nuclear weapons today and the fact that we have much less proliferation than we expected in the 1960s, that many fewer states have acquired nuclear weapons than people were predicting is a testament to the power of those norms. >> Nonproliferation survives because some states can be protected by other states with nuclear weapons. >> Some 30-odd friends and allies of the United States, some of whom are capable of building their own nuclear weapons, don't need to do so because we have done so. >> And they expect in Europe and the Middle East and Northeast Asia that if the chips were ever really down America is going to be there. >> When the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty was opened for signature it became the most widely subscribed to arms control treaty in history. Nonetheless, several UN member states did not sign, notably India and Pakistan. >> The world would be divided into two categories, states that would perpetually renounce their right to nuclear weapons and some states that would continue to maintain nuclear weapons for some time to come. India could not bear to see itself consigned eternally to the category of have not's. >> When India became independent from Great Britain in 1947 the new Indian state was actually divided between India and a new Pakistani state that would be a home to South Asian Muslims and it was the result of some contentious map making and political wrangling and demographic calculation, but in the end there was a West Pakistan and an East Pakistan, divided by about 1,000 miles. >> Millions of Hindus, Sikhs and Muslims were displaced in the controversial partition of India imposed by the British. Within months a war between India and Pakistan erupted over the Kashmir, ending in stalemate. In 1965 a second Kashmir war was fought over the region and escalated further south into the Punjab. This conflict, too, ended as a stalemate. The Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 sparked by India's entry into the Bangladesh Liberation War ended differently. >> Up until that point the Pakistanis had managed to fight India to a standstill pretty much every time that they met on the battlefield. The Bangladesh War ended in catastrophe and the Indians devastated Pakistan. >> That war confirmed for Pakistan two things, one that it did not have the conventional capabilities and, two, that the international community was unlikely to come to Pakistan's assistance. >> The global impact of the Bangladesh War was overshadowed by the US-China Rapprochement in 1972. From new Delhi's perspective this thaw in relations threatened to upset the balance of power between India and its chief rival in Asia. >> I remember meeting the nuclear physicist in charge of India's nuclear power program, and I got the impression that India was interested in demonstrating that it was an advanced scientific, cultural, technological nation, just as China had the same demonstration 10 years earlier. >> It was an extremely big and very clumsy device, and it could not have been carried by an airplane, much less. The then Prime Minister, Mrs. Indira Gandhi[EB2], authorized that experiment for reasons of domestic politics. >> I think India's 1974 test accelerated the Pakistani commitment to acquire nuclear weapons, but it did not initiate it. The Pakistani decision to acquire nuclear weapons actually is initiated very quickly after Pakistan loses the 1971 war. By 1998 the world had turned completely. The 1998 tests were tests of actual weaponized devices. >> In May 1998 both India and Pakistan tested a series of nuclear weapons. >> Pakistan has been obliged to exercise the nuclear option due to weaponization of India's nuclear program. >> They had had them before, but this gave them greater confidence and showed the world and showed each other they actually had a small number of nuclear weapons and they were able to explode them. >> For India nuclear weapons are essentially political tools. They derive all the utility essentially from nonuse. >> Nothing speaks more to that point than the fact that the Indian National Command Authority is, in fact, the civilian chain of command. >> In Pakistan nuclear weapons are first and foremost military instruments whose deterrent utility derives from the possibility that they can be used effectively. >> When you look at the Pakistani release chain it's vested in the Army Chief of Staff. The political authorities really are not involved. >> The Pakistanis think of nuclear weapons as weapons that must be planned for, whereas, the Indians in contrast are actually horrified by this vision of the utility of nuclear weapons and continue to maintain strong civilian control because they do not really anticipate ever having to use these weapons in anger. [ Music ] >> As a result of the fact that both states now have nuclear weapons the relationship between India and Pakistan is becoming more stable, but I don't think it is yet stable. >> Some of the Pakistani military strongly feel that their nuclear weapons capability has been a deterrent against India, and I think to some degree that's true but it's also been a very, very dangerous deterrent. >> Neither side is deliberately going to do something that threatens the other with either catastrophic defeat or very, very serious costs, but I would stress deliberately. >> Nuclear weapons stabilize the military balance at the level of all out nuclear war. >> Fire. [gun blasts] >> But it becomes less stable at lower levels of violence, like the continuing confrontation over Kashmir. [ Music ] The 2001 terrorist attack upon the Indian Parliament and the 2008 Mumbai attacks. >> The Indians now are moving towards a capability to attack quickly if it feels that the Pakistani Government was the cause or at least the supporter of terrorist attacks inside India. >> When you start taking very, very quick or rapid actions the potential for miscalculation increases and with nuclear weapons the consequences for that miscalculation then could become severe and even extreme. >> The problem is one of in advertent escalation, that's where the two sides get involved in the conventional war that escalates to the nuclear level in large part because Pakistan is so weak at the conventional level. >> We know that the Indians were very restrained in their reaction to the Mumbai raids. That Indian restraint will not last forever. [ Music ] >> It is terribly important for Pakistan's military leaders to understand the consequences of what might eventuate if they actually used nuclear weapons. >> India and Pakistan are as yet in an early phase of nuclear learning, much like the United States was in the 1950s. What lessons does a state like Iran take from this experience? >> One of the things that I think we learned during the start of the Cold War is that new nuclear weapon states got the weapons for a reason. They believe the weapons will not only have military utility, they will have political utility, and in the case of a government like Iran it will be probing and testing for where its weapons might give it broader latitude of action even that it takes now. >> They look around and the see the Pakistanis having nuclear weapons to their east, they see the Russians having them to the north, they see the US and others having them to the south and the west, and they basically say we're surrounded by nuclear powers. I think that Iran looks at how easily the US overthrew Sadam Hussein who had no nuclear weapons, how easily Kaddafi was taken out by a ragtag rebel army and Western air support, but how careful we are in how we deal with the North Koreans. >> Even if security is the main incentive, the main motivation for Tehran's nuclear weapons program that doesn't mean that Tehran's leaders should they acquire nuclear weapons would only behave in a defensive deterrent mode. >> So you can imagine in Iran that if it has nuclear weapons that they're then as emboldened in a way similar to Pakistan. >> What do you do if they intensify their transfer of weapons to Hezbollah and others and allow their nuclear force to be used as an offensive deterrent? >> The political decision to build Amman has not yet been made in Iran. So the first question that should be asked in Iran, how can we deter them from making that decision? >> Military strikes might set the program back a few years, but at the end of the day military strikes will also unite an Iranian public which is divided over whether or not Iran should have a nuclear weapon behind a nuclear weapons program and it will also destroy any hope to the degree that slim hope exists that there will be political change within Iran. >> A war with Iran would have very serious implications, but just as serious would be Iran getting nuclear weapons. We are not going to get an absolute total guarantee, no country would be able to do that, but we have to have a verifiable way of knowing that we will be able to have early enough warning for the Iranians if they are going to go forward with a weapon quest that we will be able to take action to stop it. >> We don't know whether Iran actually perceives a more secure future in having a nuclear weapon. We know that they perceive a benefit in moving in that direction, but actually having one, well, we'll find out. [ Music ] >> With the end of the Cold War came the end of super power bipolarity. Many believe we are living in a unipolar moment, a period of global order secured by US economic and military power, leading to an ever receding role for nuclear weapons. But where Washington and Moscow once dominated decisions about nuclear weapons today nuclear decision making is spread across multiple capitols and actors in the regions. In East Asia, in South Asia, and perhaps in the Mideast giving rise to what some call a polynuclear world, these differing views pose a range of possible nuclear futures. >> We look across the world and we see expansion of nuclear arsenals worldwide really - Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, India and potentially a spread. We just don't know what kind of threats we're going to have to respond to. >> I think that nuclear terrorism is the single most important threat our country faces today, indeed, the world faces today. >> One nuclear weapon is an existential threat to the United States because of the consequences it would cause. It would change the economics and politics of our country forever, just one. >> That tiny chance that there could be a nuclear weapon in the hands of the terrorists, that's what keeps me up at night. >> I think we totally exaggerate what terrorists have done or have proved capable of doing. >> We do ourselves a disservice by saying, well, if a terrorist had nuclear material they could make a nuclear weapon, that almost encourages them to try to get nuclear material. What we should be telling them is actually the truth and that is it's very difficult to make a nuclear weapon. >> Nuclear terrorism is the ultimate low probability, high consequence event. It's extremely unlikely to happen. The bars against it are quite high, but if it did it becomes a transformational event for society. >> No, short answer to the question. >> How on earth is a nuclear weapon going to deter a terrorist threat? If the United States is attacked or if France or the United Kingdom or any other country in the world is attacked by a terrorist group operating out of Pakistan you're telling me we're going to nuke Islamabad? >> Deterring terrorists is not a function of our nuclear capability. Remember the nuclear weapon, the nuclear deterrent is not an all-purpose deterrent. >> Technology will not save us from terrorism, it can keep terrorists away from us, it can detect their activities, it can attack them, eliminate them, but in terms of why people want to commit these terrorist acts, that's a human problem. >> If you have what I call a terrorist with negative goals, a terrorist that engages in violence purely for the sake of violence, there's not a lot one could hold hostage, hold at risk and say, you know, if you don't behave in a certain way we're going to damage it. But on the other hand if you have a terrorist that has what I would call positive goals, again, that cares about a particular place, a particular population, he doesn't want those places and populations to be hurt. And then we're back in the old game of deterrence and coercion. >> Nuclear terrorism is one of the hardest problems from the perspective of deterrence because as long as the terrorist group genuinely does not have a return address it becomes harder to deter. >> Unless you're talking about a nuclear arms date, which is overtly or covertly sponsored terrorists against us to include the possibility of nuclear terrorism. Now you're dealing with deterring a state actor, which has territory to put at risk with a leadership which has value structures to put at risk and you're back into the general category of deterrence. >> They don't keep their agreements and they don't operate in a way that creates confidence and goodwill in their own region, and so I cannot predict what they're going to do. >> There are two parts to this equation, one is capability, the other one is intent. Well, the capability we sort of lost that game, you know, they're essentially there. >> Iran will either decide to deploy a nuclear weapon or it won't. They will make that decision. We can make that decision more difficult. >> But if they sustain the belief it's in their national interests then they will achieve it. >> I don't think we can compel Iran not to develop a nuclear weapon, save through regime change, and I think given our lessons in Iraq and Afghanistan we are not particularly up for regime change. >> So if we really wanted to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons we ought to be working on their motivation. What makes it in their national interests to have such weapons. >> Iranians have a heightened sense of insecurity. They live in a dangerous part of the world and nuclear weapons have quite a bit of nationalist salience for them. And one of the things the South Asian case has shown us is that when states really want to develop nuclear weapons they find a way to do it, and India and Pakistan were under tremendous pressure not to develop nuclear weapons and they did. >> It seems to me very likely Iran is going to acquire nuclear weapons, so we should think about what happens if they do. >> Of course, anybody can be deterred by definition, whether we know how to do that is a separate question. >> We thought, for example, with China, Mao's China we can't let them get nuclear weapons because Mao is crazy. They did get nuclear weapons and we have successfully deterred them. >> Maybe, maybe, just maybe the Mullahs in Tehran would follow the same course, but they would be greatly more reasonable than people fear. >> Notwithstanding some of the rhetoric, these are not suicidal people, so they can be deterred. >> I would hope that we do not have to rely on deterring Iran, whether deterrents in a pure sense would work or not I don't think anyone knows. >> Deterrence has worked ever since we've seen it in 1945 and if Iran gets nuclear weapons Iran can be deterred by other states that possess nuclear weapons, the most important of which is the United States. >> I'm dubious about that proposition, first of all, because I think other countries in the region if Iran gets nuclear weapons will insist on their own. >> Our friends in the region will say, well, you told us Iran would not develop nuclear weapons, you failed so we can't rely on you again. >> What will Turkey do or Saudi Arabia or Egypt? The conventional thinking is they will race to get a bomb, but maybe not. Maybe there is a deterrent or a containment regime that you can put in place around Iran that makes Iran pay a price for that, that no other country wants to pay. >> What would we say to partners in the Middle East? It's a very different region than our traditional alliances, our NATO alliance, where we do have an extended nuclear deterrents commitment. Northeast Asia. >> So we go to Qatar or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia and say not to worry, you're living under our umbrella, then the Saudi Government might well say, well, yes, but your umbrella comes from a long ways away and these guys are right here. >> Extended deterrents would adapt, it wouldn't be the same as we've known it historically, it wouldn't be the same as it is in other regions. >> How do you manifest that deterrent? We clearly would never put aircraft with nuclear weapons on the ground. >> The most recent nuclear past review talked about how we can deploy bombers that are nuclear capable or dual capable aircraft to places around the world if we needed to, be that in Asia or elsewhere. >> We have to tailor nuclear means to this new setting. Will it require a set of robust plans to demonstrate our capability in that region? will it require a new set of bilateral talks with all of the allies in that region to assure them of our promise? Yes. >> We're maintaining weapons which are much larger, that have much higher nuclear yields than we need in an age of precision weapon delivery. >> Guidance technology and surveillance technology and sensor technology and networked command and control have allowed planners to contemplate nuclear counterforce strikes that don't produce millions of casualties. >> You can say it in one sentence, it makes a damage limiting first strike feasible. The synergies of these new technologies are extraordinarily powerful for upsetting the military balance in ways that may not be politically directed. >> I think in many respects the weaponry is stuck in the Cold War and we need to think about what kind of deterrence is more appropriate for today's needs. I'd rather rely on more of strategic targeted, very capable precision weapons that can take out military targets more suitable to today's capabilities, as well as potentially usages. >> I do not think based on the life extension program and the stockpile stewardship program there's any compelling need for new different types and so forth of nuclear weapons. >> I think the military capabilities are perfectly adequate to deal with today's threats. You know, I don't see - you know, let me put the question back at you, what military capabilities do you want that are not present in today's arsenal? >> I don't know the answer to these questions, number one. Number two, nobody knows the answer to these questions. You have nine nuclear countries in the world today, eight have modernized their nuclear forces for the 21st Century. There's only one, the United States, which says we don't want to do that because it will send a signal to the rest of the world that these weapons might have some value. >> You know, I don't think the US should build any nuclear warhead, it doesn't need just to build a new nuclear warhead because other states might be building new nuclear warheads. I mean, you know, that's not a strategic way of approaching the problem of deterrence. I mean that's just copycatting. >> But we're talking here about designing a force which is not going to be used in anything like current circumstances and so we can't take the presentism of the current debate and simply apply it to these extreme circumstances. >> We tend to talk about deterrents as though nuclear deterrents encompass all deterrents. And it doesn't, it's one hugely consequential and important part. >> Deterrence depends on so many things more than nuclear weapons. Conventional capabilities, missile defense capabilities. >> Command and control capabilities, our surveillance capabilities, our satellites, our eyes in the sky. >> If you will, a diversification of the deterrence toolkit to deal with the emerging regional deterrence challenges of the 21st Century. >> Nuclear is an obsolete form of deterrence. The only reason you have nuclear weapons is because other countries have nuclear weapons. If they did not you have many, many means of deterring them from attack. >> The focus nowadays is on developing very, very capable conventional forces. >> We can enhance deterrence by the introduction of these nonnuclear strike means and ballistic missile defense. >> However, we are in a situation today where there are a number of potential adversaries in various regions of the world who will look at a nuclear weapon as a warfighting tool. How will they be deterred from crossing a nuclear threshold? A regional crisis is likely to start small at a slow boil. It might start in the cyber sphere, it might start in the space sphere, it might start in a cross-border conventional conflict. >> And if the United States finds itself in those conflicts the adversary is going to face a tremendous incentive to use nuclear weapons to escalate as a means of bringing the war to a close before it's too late. >> Our conventional means may not be suitable to deter the employment of a nuclear weapon by one of these regional adversaries. >> In those circumstances one of the options that any US leader would face is to take out the adversary's nuclear force. And the question is do we have the kinds of capabilities that would allow us to do that in a way that doesn't produce millions of casualties? >> We have conventional capabilities that can take care of any imaginable contingency, including the obscure ones that people dream up. >> So we want a conflict to remain conventional, but on the other hand if for whatever reason we were forced to use nuclear weapons we'd want to limit the damage. Our objectives can be met with a weapon of 10 kilotons or less. >> And as you look at how capabilities of our potential adversaries have evolved you certainly would like to have in small numbers more adaptive capabilities to be able to ensure that we aren't either self-deterred or our deterrent becomes incredible in the eyes of a potential adversary. >> The ability to have a responsive option for the President that is survivable is very, very important. >> What mission requires nuclear weapons? How credible, how viable is this idea that somehow the use of nuclear weapons is essential to our deterrent capabilities, to our security commitments? I think it's, frankly, fallacious. >> So today I state clearly and with conviction America's commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons. [applause] >> President Obama in advancing the Prague initiative really took a very realistic attitude. He said this is something that will not happen in my lifetime, it's a goal of policy that you put out there and it drives you in the direction of lower and lower numbers of nuclear weapons available in the hands of countries around the world. >> Is global zero achievable? I don't see how in a future I can foresee, certainly not in my lifetime, and as the President said probably not in his lifetime, but I can't foresee it even in the lifetimes of my children that we will be able to eliminate nuclear weapons around the world. >> International politics is now a nasty and brutish business. States live in a system that is sometimes quite dangerous, so if you want to move to a world where there are no nuclear weapons what you have to do is fundamentally alter the nature of international politics. >> Now that's a huge geopolitical engineering exercise. You wouldn't just need good enforcement and you wouldn't just need good verification, you would also need a security architecture that enabled today's states with nuclear weapons to protect their vital interests without them. >> There's only one problem with that, I haven't heard one other leader of a nuclear power in the world echo that sentiment, not even our closest allies, the British and the French, and I certainly haven't heard it out of the Russians, the Chinese, the Pakistanis, the Indians, anybody else. >> But even if you could address a lot of these security concerns you'd always then have to worry about the cheating problem. I mean how do you know that an adversary isn't hiding the capability to recreate? >> You will have a group of nations who are latent nuclear powers and those nations will invariably have plans, military plans to reconstitute their nuclear capabilities in a crisis, to have plans to potentially preempt their adversaries from acquiring nuclear capabilities. It would be a very, very, very nervous world. >> A world without nuclear weapons is tailormade for major conventional war and all the carnage that the international system saw in the 20th Century. Are we willing to trade off the risks that are associated with a well-managed system of nuclear deterrents for the risks that essentially come from the open-ended threats of large scale conventional war? >> I believe we should work in good faith towards eventual elimination of nuclear weapons, even though I know that that would be very difficult and may not be achievable. Because even if it is not achieved we will be in a much better world with smaller nuclear arsenals and a more recessed form of deterrence. >> Now the things we do to get to that very low level in and of themselves can help lead to a better geopolitical world, but we're not there yet. >> In the first place we're not going to get to that point, you can't uninvent these weapons. And, secondly, for the United States to believe that we can encourage other nations to forego that weapon if we simply cut back on ours is folly. >> To me, you have to ask what's naive, a world without nuclear weapons or moving in that direction step by step as an ultimate goal, giving people hope, giving them vision, giving people a chance to work together toward that long range goal, what's naive? Is that naive or believing we can basically stay mounted on this nuclear tiger with nine other countries joining us and avoid absolute catastrophe? History will tell us. [ Music ]
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Channel: Sandia National Labs
Views: 168,544
Rating: 4.6620178 out of 5
Keywords: Sandia National Laboratories, Nuclear Deterrent, National Security, National Labs, Cold War, deterrence, documentary, film, global security
Id: tQBLpJFi6f0
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Length: 102min 29sec (6149 seconds)
Published: Tue Feb 28 2017
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