Nukes In An Uncertain World | Q&A

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(APPLAUSE) Thank you. Good evening, and welcome to Q&A. I'm Tony Jones. And here to answer your questions tonight - Senate President Scott Ryan, human rights lawyer Diana Sayed, Professor of Strategic Studies at ANU Hugh White, Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong and executive director of the Centre For Independent Studies Tom Switzer. Please welcome our panel. (APPLAUSE) Thank you very much. Q&A is live in eastern Australia on ABC TV, iview and NewsRadio. Our first question comes from Chris Breen. Hugh White, you suggest in your book that Australia must start arming ourselves with nuclear weapons. In light of the recent Cuban Missile Crisis-style stand-off between the US and North Korea because of this very reason, what makes you think that our instigation of a nuclear arsenal won't have a similar effect? Well, that's a really good question. Just to be clear, I don't actually argue that Australia should acquire nuclear weapons, what I argue is that Australia's decision about nuclear weapons - the one we made 50 years ago when we decided that we weren't going to develop them ourselves - was made in circumstances very different from the circumstances of today, and even more different from the circumstances we're going to live in I would say 20 or 30 or 40 years from now. And the biggest difference is that I think Asia is going to be more contested and more dangerous, and America is going to be less reliable as an ally. So, at the moment, we depend on US nuclear weapons to deter any possible nuclear attack on Australia. The less confident we are of that, the less confident we are that we can rely on America to do that, the stronger the arguments for Australia to acquire its own. Just briefly, why are you less confident of that? And why would Australia need its own sabre to rattle if the US still has a nuclear umbrella, as they call it? Well, I'm less confident of America's place in Asia, primarily because of the fundamental shift in the distribution of wealth and power. America has been the dominant power in Asia for decades, as long as any of us can remember, primarily because it's been the world's strongest power, the world's biggest economy and so on. As China grows, China's wealth challenges America's position. And its ambitions to be the leading power in Asia challenges America's capacity to sustain that position. Now, it's not Donald Trump, it's not the sort of toing and froing in US domestic politics year by year, it's the long-term shift in wealth and power and the rise of China and its ambitions to become the leading power in Asia, which makes it seem to me very unlikely that America will be able to sustain that dominant position, particularly looking far into the distance. Alright, but before I pass on to the other panellists - and we'll come back to you as well - at what point would China's military power, which seems now primarily defensive, pose a direct threat to Australia, such that Australia would need nuclear weapons? We don't know, but what we do know is that the factors which have made it so unlikely that China - or for that matter any other major power in Asia - might threaten Australia, the things that have made Australia so secure from that kind of threat in the last few decades are going to be less true in future. We don't know how much less true. But the choices we have to make today are ones which encompass the possibility - I think the quite significant possibility - that Australia will face both better armed and potentially more aggressive major powers in the region. An existential threat? Well, at least a very, very serious threat, and one which we can no longer rely on America to defend us from. You know, the fundamental shift is that for 50 years, we have been able to depend on America to prevent a major power threatening Australia and to defend us if that happens. And the further ahead we look into the future, the less confident we can be of that. And we have to look a long way into the future when we talk about developing our Defence Forces in the next decade. OK, we're going to explore this a little more with you. Penny Wong, is it time for Australia to have a debate about whether we need our own nuclear weapons capacity, as is being suggested here? Well, on this I don't agree with Hugh, insofar as he is actually saying that, and I take his point. I think that Australia faces a far more complex and wide-ranging set of circumstances than simply focusing on, you know, a potential attack on our territory. But I think what Hugh is grappling with is actually the right thing to grapple with, which is how do we deal with the most challenging set of external circumstances since World War II? How do we deal with the disruption we see globally and in our region? How do we deal with the fact that the two most important nations to us - our friend and ally the US and China - are, in different ways, making decisions and acting in ways which challenge the status quo? Now, that's a very short summary of a much more complex discussion. And I think what Hugh is seeking to do is grapple with that it. I think we do need, as a nation, to focus very clearly on what we want in our region, and what can we do to achieve sustaining the sort of region we want. We will come back to... We're going to talk more about the general thing, but what about the strategic issue about whether or not we could ever acquire or develop nuclear weapons in this country? Whether a government would ever condone that? Well, I think in many ways it's the wrong question because I don't actually think getting into an arms race with China is a sensible proposition. What we do want is a multipolar region in which the US stays deeply engaged, and that is in Australia's interests. Tom Switzer? Well, I think that Hugh's thesis is premised on the observation that the United States is in serious decline in East Asia. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, I think reports of America's retreat from the region are grossly exaggerated. Hugh and I, and I think Penny as well, would agree that America's made some very bad decisions in the post 9/11 era, most notably the invasion of Iraq which did cost America dearly in prestige and credibility, and power and influence to some extent. But nevertheless, I think across Asia, whether it's India, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, there's a well-founded conviction that America, even under a Donald Trump - or a Bernie Sanders, which can't be ruled out in 2020 - America will still be the predominant power on military, energy, self-sufficiency, education, innovation and demographic trends. Whereas China, as the saying goes, will grow old before it grows rich. So, I have more confidence in American staying power than Hugh does. I'll just quickly come back to Hugh to respond to that, briefly if you can. Yes. Look, America will remain an extraordinarily powerful country with huge assets. But our own Treasury, in the government's Foreign Policy White Paper in 2017, predicted that by 2030 China's economy will be $42 trillion and America's will be $24 trillion. 42 to 24. The fact is that America won't remain the most powerful country in the world, it won't remain the primary power in Asia. It's just wishful thinking for us to keep on thinking that what's worked so well for us in the past will keep working indefinitely in the future. And it's the implications of that really radical shift in Australia's international setting which is what I'm trying to grapple with. I'm going to try to quickly bring us back to the nuclear weapons issue since you've sponsored this debate, effectively. Let's imagine a future in which Australia did have nuclear weapons. What would the targets be? It's a really important question. Let me just make one point clear. I think all the arguments, including the arguments from the question, all the arguments against Australia getting nuclear weapons are really strong - have always been strong, remain strong - but the arguments in favour of us getting them are stronger because the reliance we can place on others is less. What would we want them to do? There's only one thing Australia will want nuclear weapons to do, and that is to deter a nuclear threat from others. The idea that we'd use nuclear weapons to fight a war I think is just bad strategy and bad morality. They'd have to be pointed at something, though? Oh, yes. Generally speaking, what nuclear weapons are pointed at is cities. Well, the nuclear weapons that would make sense for Australia to acquire would be aimed at cities, they would be aimed to impose massive damage on an adversary, to deter them from using their nuclear weapons against us. And that's the only purpose which they'd be used. So, it would be - what's called in the trade - a minimum deterrent strategy. But as I spell out in the book, it's a pretty grim idea. TOM SWITZER: And meanwhile, how would our close neighbour Indonesia respond? Surely this would ignite Indonesian nationalism, which is hardly in the Australian national interest, Hugh. Not to mention Indonesia acquiring its own nuclear weapons. Of course, of course. Which is the logic behind nonproliferation, isn't it? Yes. Whatever one's views about nuclear weapons to date, the international community has said - and obviously North Korea is an exception to that - enough, because the world is not more secure because of more nuclear weapons. Sorry. We'll come back to you, Penny. Sorry. I was just finishing my sentence. OK, Senator Wong. (LAUGHTER) I just think that the fact that we're even having this conversation about Australia becoming nuclear is just astonishing to me. And nuclear weapons are the most inhumane and indiscriminate weapons that we have to date on this planet and it causes such severe environmental damage, it undermines national and global security, it directs vast public resources away from human needs, and this whole nonproliferation treaty that Australia has been spearheading with ICAN, the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons, have done a phenomenal job of getting 122 countries on board to sign this. As what you have mentioned previous, it would actually, you know, trigger a nuclear arms race in our region, particularly our closest ally in Indonesia. And the dangers of having a nuclear weapon arise from their very existence. So, the fact that Australia would even be entertaining this thought is unfathomable and unconscionable to me, and it goes against everything in international law. OK, it's not that we've never had the debate before. And before I come to Scott Ryan, I'll go to the next question, because it'll go do him, from Bo Pang. So, in the late 1960s, Prime Minister John Gorton pressed for developing a domestic nuclear weapon option. However, this effort failed to result in any substantive result due to the lack of bureaucratic support. The effort ended in 1973 with Australia's ratification of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons. What is the current prevalent bureaucratic stance in Australia? So, Scott, I'll go with you, because I think the last prime minister - John Gorton, as was just said - in '68, was the last prime minister to actively think it was a good idea for Australia to have nuclear weapons of its own. Well, we've, over at least my lifetime, I was born after that, have historically viewed nonproliferation and the alliance with the US as a combined way to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and the risk that poses, particularly with rogue states. And the alliance with the US and, obviously, they being a nuclear power is core to our security interest. I think one of the things Hugh highlights, and I haven't read the entire book yet - I apologised to Hugh earlier, it only came out last week - is that, unlike that era, we are now in the front line of the strategic competition. In that era, Europe was really the front line of strategic competition, albeit there was a great deal of activity, of course, in our region. Now the nation we are looking at, to our north, the growing power, economically and militarily, being China, is, of course, the focus of this. So we're in a different position. I am not as pessimistic as Hugh. I don't criticise him at all for raising it, that is the job of people like Hugh - to float ideas and to challenge current thinking. But our values underpin a relationship with the US. Values and interests underpin an alliance. The key test, I think, Hugh talks about is resources. What is the capacity, in relative terms, of us and the United States in our region? That balance is obviously changing. I, however, am slightly more optimistic, like Tom, about the capacity of the US demographically, economically, technologically to maintain its lead, even if the relativities slightly change. And I cannot see a time, where we might talk about issues much further away from Australia later tonight, where US interests aren't going to be directly impacted by activities in our immediate region. And that will underpin the ongoing involvement they have. Sorry, Diana, just for one second, let's just go quickly back to what happened in '68. Dean Rusk, the Secretary of State, came to visit John Gorton to try and get him to sign up for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and Gorton said, "I can't trust America to defend us against a nuclear threat, "so I don't want to sign that treaty. "I want the ability to build our own nuclear weapons." His scientists said to him, "We can do that very quickly." We only learnt this because those State Department cables were leaked a few years ago. Could you ever imagine that argument happening again? Because Hugh is saying that the United States may not be trustworthy, as allies. Look, as I said before, I think interests, as well as relationships and values, underpin alliances. And I can't see a time where the US is not going to have direct, very important interests in our region, particularly even around shipping lanes, let alone our ongoing military cooperation, let alone the fact they are our largest foreign investor. There's commercial interests as well. I think the relationship we have with them, we've got to be careful not to just view through a military or ANZUS prism. Now, I don't know if those conversations will happen again. And if I did know they would happen, I probably wouldn't talk about them on television! So, I can't imagine that discussion happening again in those terms. And, you know, that happened nearly 50 years ago. Diana, sorry, I interrupted you before. No, I was just really curious to know, like, if there is a shift in prominence of the US to China, and there's going to be this Asia pivot, I'm just curious to know why we have to talk about it through a nuclear armament lens. Why can't we critically engage with China on other fronts? We do it already through trade and other multilateral fora, and influence that way. What has China done to show any signs of aggression? There's no ideological agenda there that we really have anything to fear from China. And being a nuclear deterrent state to me is still not justifiable. Let me put that straight back to Hugh. I mean, you're a strategic analyst, so your plan, really, is to look forward some time in the future, and predict what China will be and how we should respond going forward. So, what is it that you see that causes you to think we're going to need nuclear weapons? Yeah. Well, just to be clear, I'm not sure myself that we DO need nuclear weapons, I think that the probabilities are changing. I'm not sure that nuances work. (LAUGHTER) Well, but it's actually a very important one, you know. There's a difference between saying we need these things and saying we need to debate them. I agree. But I want to go back to Diana. Look, I share your view. I mean, this is the hardest issue I've ever dealt with in 40 years of thinking about the unpleasant business of war. And I really find myself - I say in the book - I find it appalling that Australia might confront this situation. The situation where we might find ourselves making what would seem to me to be, in many ways, a tragic decision. The reason why I think we might - and this goes to your point - is that we don't know what kind of country China will be 30 or 40 years from now. And I just have to stress, 30 or 40 years is the time frame we have to think about. And not just China, we don't know what India will be 30 or 40 years from now. And so the choice we make today and the choices we make in future, about both our conventional forces and our nuclear forces, have to acknowledge that maybe it will all go well, maybe China will become an extraordinarily powerful state, probably the dominant power in the Western Pacific, but it will use its power in a moderate, kind, gentle kind of way. And if so, we're in good shape. But if not, then our failure to make that decision soon will put us in a much more dangerous position. And it's that sort of tragic dilemma that we have to deal with. Just a quick question, 'cause we've seen Iran trying to go through the process of building a nuclear capacity, then stopping and pausing and now maybe moving in that direction, we don't know. Could Australia, or does Australia, have the technical capability to build nuclear weapons now? Gorton was told it could happen very quickly. Yes, we're probably not as well placed as we were in Gorton's day because Australia had a stronger nuclear industry then than we do now. Opinions differ on that. Some people tell me that we could actually move quite fast, within a few years, some people say it would be longer. From my point of view, the hardest thing is not actually building the weapons, but building the delivery systems. And the weapon by itself, of course, is only part of the picture. And just to confirm what it is you're suggesting might be needed - you're talking about ballistic missiles based in Australia or on submarines? I mean, what kind of capability are you talking about? Just to go back, I find it kind of distasteful, actually, to get into this business, but I do in the book. Once you start the debate. Exactly! No, exactly. And it's also appropriate because you don't want this to be a kind of a fact-free conversation. I think the only kind of nuclear capability that would make sense for Australia would be the same kind of posture that, for example, Britain and France has, which is ballistic missiles based on submarines, because they're so secure, they're so hard to target. OK, I'm going to move on to the next question, from Louise Claridge. It's a broader question that's still in this general area. Louise? Is it possible for Australia to maintain its primary security relationship with the US whilst still maintaining our strongest economic relations to China? Will the Trump presidency and growing US-Sino tensions force Australia's hand to recalibrate our geopolitical foundations? Tom Switzer? Well, I certainly agree that this is a very delicate balancing act, and it's become more delicate over the last few years, trying to reconcile our most important trade partner, China, and our most important security alliance, the United States. And in a way, history has not really prepared us very well for this because for the first half of the 20th century and even before that, when we were a collection of colonies far removed from the Western world, our political class, the public at large, took refuge in having a very close security relationship with what Menzies called "a great and powerful friend". And that, of course, was Great Britain. Then, after World War II and the onset of the Cold War and then the Suez Crisis in '56, that great power became the United States. I think the US alliance will remain the centrepiece of our foreign policy because, among other things, the United States provides so much top-quality defence equipment, such as the Growlers and the Joint Strike Fighters. It's also got a very important investment relationship with Australia. But our alliance will change, and it will change because of the rise of China. It's difficult. We've never been in this position before. It's like riding two horses simultaneously. (LAUGHS) I've said this before, but the difficulty now is that those two horses are going further and further apart, so it requires new diplomatic skills, more agility, more nuance, not necessarily giving unconditional and unqualified support to Uncle Sam. And take a leaf out of Lord Palmerston's dictum, the great Victorian British Foreign Secretary of the 19th century. He said that, "A nation has no permanent enemies or eternal allies. "Our interests are permanent and eternal." Penny Wong. I said we'd get back to this. Yeah, I think the two things that Tom just said which I think are worth repeating, and I agree with - history hasn't prepared us well for it. I think that's true. I use the phrase, you know, "The play book of the past decades is of limited utility." But you probably said it more succinctly than I. I agree also that the US alliance will remain, you know, a key pillar of our foreign policy, our key security relationship. And it is a relationship of interests and values. But it is the case that we are living in a time where the two relationships you described are with powers, both of whom are making choices which are changing the status quo. And I think what this era will require from Australia is frankly more from us. I think there'll be greater Australian agency required, both in terms of the sort of region we want and the work we do with regional partners to that purpose, the work we do in the alliance, as well as the work in our bilateral relationship. And I think there is a much greater weight on us to assert and prosecute our interests at this time. And that is a different world, frankly, for Australian foreign policy and Australian strategic policy, to a great extent. Hugh White, you've pointed out that both Germany and Japan are recalibrating their relations with the United States and reconsidering the natures of the alliance. Oddly enough, both have started debates on getting nuclear weapons as well. Do you see that we're in the same boat as they are? Yes. Yes, I do. But I think, in some ways, our position is even more acute because it goes back to something that both Penny and Tom have mentioned, and that is this is new for Australia. Ever since European settlement, we have had either Britain or America as our guardians. We have never confronted a future in Asia without having a great and powerful friend to make Asia safe for us. And I think, even on their more optimistic view of America's future role, I think they'd agree - putting words in their mouth - that it's at least going to be more complex for America to get its way and to help its mates in Asia than it has been hitherto. I mean, I think the key thing for us in squaring the circle between America and China is that it's not entirely up to us. Penny's right, our agency is important. But how difficult it is for us to ride those two horses depends on them - depends on America and China. The more intensely they see one another as rivals, the more they will each expect Australia to side with them against the other, and I think that's exactly what's happening at the moment. As their rivalry has intensified over the last few years - and will, I expect, continue to intensify over the next few years - Australia will face tougher and tougher choices. And there will come a point, perhaps, and, you know, this is a gloomy prospect. I'm not one of those who, for a moment, thinks that war between the US and China is inevitable, but the kind of contest that's now under way between America and China as to which of them will be the dominant power in the world's most dynamic region, and that is what's going on right now... And, Hugh, let's not discount the fact that there are significant voices in Washington, and in the broader American academic community, such as Professor John Mearsheimer, who'll be debating you in a few weeks' time here in Canberra, and they make the point that it's inevitable that US allies, like Australia, will support a containment strategy against China. That's right. And the question for us is, are we willing to support the United States in trying to contain China's rise? Because people in Washington expect us to. That's it. Let me move across to the other side of the panel. Scott, what do you think? And has Donald Trump complicated this picture, and could it change after the next election? The strategic rivalry between China and the US has multiple facets. I mean, we're seeing, for example, the trade and economic phase, particularly at the moment with the debates and ongoing issues with the WTO and the US role and China role there. What Hugh talks about is the longer-term strategic role. I agree with Tom and Penny and Hugh on this. This is challenge for foreign policy here. We are going to have to balance our competing needs. We have an interest in maintaining strong economic links. We also have an interest in maintaining our strong security links with the US, and a strong US role as a protector of the order we have in the region. But there's also other nations changing profoundly in the region. I mean, Indonesia's going through enormous growth. I mean, it's still a very young country, unlike China, which is actually ageing, as Tom mentioned. Japan is going through a different phase. When I look at the trade-based conflict between China and the US, for example, I do remember, in the '80s, that happening with Japan, albeit at a lower level. But there was huge angst in the United States about Japanese trade policy and the impact upon the American economy, particularly in manufacturing in the '80s. We managed to get past that, but it was, of course, without what I might call the cultural and ideological competition, or broader strategic competition. This is going to take nuance. Now, I actually have faith that Australia can do that. I have a lot of faith in our officials. The fact that we're here on a program like this, and Hugh brought out a book raising such challenging ideas as he did last week, and we're talking about it, is, I think, a sign of the maturity of the way we, as a country, can discuss this. Mm. I wonder China considers it mature to be talking about nuclear weapons aimed at Beijing. 'Cause they see things very differently, obviously. But I think China is also very realistic to know that there are people like Hugh in Australia, and other people, who think about the long-term strategic aims. You know, we're not naive, and I don't think they are either. OK. Sorry, just quickly. Just remember, there are very real weaknesses and limitations in China. I mean, even if they sort out their demographic challenges, they still face problems like debt, corruption, you know, pervasive air and water pollution. Ruchir Sharma from Morgan Stanley, someone who's judgement I respect immensely, he calculates in his award-winning book The Rise And Fall Of Nations, that between 2000, when China became part of the WTO, and 2014, 90,000 millionaires left mainland China for greener pastures, and a lot of them came to Australia and New Zealand and North America. So, that tells you that if those trends continue, China will have a lot of internal challenges to deal with. OK, look, I'm going to go to another global threat, because we'll run out of time if we keep talking about the one issue. The next question is from Cynthia Mifsud. The US, as recently as last week, were willing to start air strikes on Iran. There appeared two triggers - one an unmanned drone shot down, and two, allegations that Iran had struck oil tankers. At the same time, reports that Iran was either breaching or planning to breach its 2015 agreement in regards to enriching uranium also arose. This, of course, following the US's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, which was working the way it was supposed to. Are we heading for war? Diana, I'll start with you. Yeah, and thank you for your question. I just want to promise it with the drone strikes. It's alleged. We don't know for sure if this is what's happened. This is what the media is reporting on. And I really want to focus in on that. And I want to make it really clear to the audience that Iran does not have any nuclear weapons, nor has it indicated any intention to acquire nuclear weapons, nor does it have any uranium-grade weapons. We actually have to be really careful at this time, because we cannot make the same mistake that we did in 2003, under this false pretext of weapons of mass distraction that we did in Iraq, and the disastrous war that ensued from there. So, I have to...I want to be really clear about that, because we don't want another Iraq 2.0. And it seems that the playbook that's playing out in the media, with the tweets now back and forth between Donald Trump and the Iranian government, is really problematic. And it's a dangerous game, and, yeah, we could be headed, very likely, towards war, given that the US withdrew from the nuclear deal only last year, and then the crippling sanctions that they've put on the Iranian people at the moment is really devastating. And it's a really troubling and dangerous time. Scott Ryan, what you think about that? And bear in mind that the prime minister, Scott Morrison, asked about this, asked if there were any US request for Australian military assistance in some kind of conflict in Iran, it would be considered seriously and on its merits. Can we take that at all to be a kind of affirmative suggestion that Australia might willing to get involved in another conflict in the Gulf? Well, I believe he also said that there'd been no such request. Look, I think we've got to start... He didn't say there'd been no conversations, though. Um, no, but he did say, I think, there'd been no request. I think we have to start from the premise of a few things. Iran is not a normal international actor. Iran is a state that sponsors terrorism. Now, I'm not having a go at the Iranian people, but this is not a normal international actor like one in our region where we might have a difference of opinion with. It would be a very bad thing, not only for the region, but for the world, for Iran to be able to not only have nuclear weapons, or to be able to scale up quickly to be able to get them, whether that be enriched more quickly or have a delivery mechanism more quickly. It would spark an incredible amount of tension in a very, very volatile region. Let alone the global economic impact of the potential closure of oil supplies out of the Persian Gulf. So, I don't think we're dealing with this in the way... ..we can deal with this in the way we might deal with a normal international... ..a challenging international situation. But should we deal with it... Taking Diana's point, should we deal with it in the same way that we dealt with the progress towards war in Iraq, where fraudulent information, or intelligence, led the United States, and inevitably Australia, into a conflict? Well, I don't... I mean, I don't see anything like that on the cards, and with all due respect to the criticism, there was a lot of debate at the time. But even people who were after-the-fact critical of the events in Iraq - well before my time in public life - there was a general, or more widespread, agreement about the quality of the intelligence at the time, that there were weapons, there was a risk of weapons of mass destruction at the time - even if people had disagreed with the actions the Americans took. There was a strong belief among some that the intelligence was real, but it turned out it wasn't. Absolutely. And, as a result, there was a massive war, and hundreds of thousands of people died. And I'm... 600,000 people, actually, and more internally displaced. And what I'm saying is what we've got now with Iran is a state that does sponsor terrorism, that if it got a nuclear capacity, or the ability to get one quickly, would probably provoke an arms race in a very volatile region, which no-one wants to see. So, preventing that happen is, quite frankly, a global good. I'm not proposing or supporting any action. I'm just saying that I don't think we can deal with this through the prism of dealing with a normal set of circumstances. OK, Penny Wong. Well... The question was, are we headed for a war? Well, a military conflict and escalation are in no-one's interests... Absolutely. ..and I note...I note...that the prime minister has said that no such request has been made. I do agree that a nuclear-capable Iran is a frightening prospect. That is why we, and the government, supported what's known as the JCPOA - so, the nuclear deal - as a means of averting the development of that capability. We were disappointed with the US decision to pull out of it. We expressed that publicly, as did, I think, it was Bishop at the time. And we would urge the existing partners to the agreement, given the events of the last couple of weeks, including the additional thing - new story tonight about enrichment - urge them to utilise the dispute mechanisms within the agreement. If there were a request, would Labor, on principle, reject it or oppose it? Well, it's a hypothetical. No such request has been made. The point I have made, though, is that I think we have a fair degree of history to look at about this region, and I don't think military escalation is in anybody's interest - the region's or in the interest of global stability. And, you know, that...that... So, you're saying it's just too early for Labor to come to an "in principal" decision. Well, there's been no request made of Australia. Mm. And I think one of the issues that was raised was we do have, as I understand it, some assets in the Gulf which are part of a range of maritime operations, I think, around, you know, countering criminal syndicates, etc. I think it's one thing to talk about what those might be engaged in. In terms of civilian ships, it's a very... ..it's another thing to talk about military conflict. Tom Switzer, there's one thing we know. Trump actually used a tweet to talk about the potential obliteration of parts of Iran if this were to escalate. We do know that among his key advisers, there are people like John Bolton, who have in the past recommended military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. How seriously do you think this is going to end up? Well, bear in mind, Trump won the 2016 election in part on a campaign to, you know, "make America great again", but also be a less interventionist foreign policy. I mean, he portrayed Hillary Clinton as the more hawkish candidate. Mm. And he did this for understandable reasons. I mean, the American people are tired of the world. They're suffering from foreign policy fatigue. And all the available polling evidence indicates that there's no hankering for support in the... ..in middle Aus... in Middle America... Or Middle Australia! ..for yet another war in the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. I mean, I think Trump's decision to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal from 2015 was a grave mistake, because it now means the Iranians can pull out, which they've just done. They're now enriching uranium, and they are now bent on becoming a nuclear power. You think about that. My advice to the president, for what it's worth, is to adopt a more balance-of-power strategy, and talk to the Iranians, as well as the Saudis, and try to play off the Iranian Shia bloc against the Saudi Sunni bloc, create a balance of power so no one power dominates the region. And then, meanwhile, if they don't do that, Trump will have to deal with the nuclear Iran. And what will he do then? He'll have to contain and deter it, not conduct a pre-emptive strike, which will just lead to all sorts of unintended consequences, the likes of which we saw in 2003. And if a key ally like Israel conducted those strikes, would America support it? Would they do anything about it? Would Israel take pre-emptive action? I think the Americans probably would support it, and I think Trump has got himself in a bind here. But if he's true to his instincts, I don't think that he would support this strike. Remember, he pulled back when virtually all his senior advisers thought he'd go through with it. Hugh White. Well, I think the first thing to remember is that the reason we're in this situation at all is that there are no credible, brief, quick, easy military options to deprive Iran of its nuclear program. If there were, they'd have been used by now. And so, you know, first question you've always got to ask when you're talking about armed forces, or at least one of the first questions, is, "Is this going to work to achieve our objectives?" And so far as I can see, the idea that you'd start a bombing campaign, for example, against Iran to deprive it of its nuclear facilities simply would not work. They're too dispersed, they're too well-protected, and many of them are too well-hidden. And so you bomb away for a week and you've still got the same problem, except a much more angry and hostile Iran even than you're dealing with at the moment. The alternative is a full-scale invasion, and when you ask are we heading for war - and we all do think, of course, about 2003 - it's worth making the point, that would... Remember how big Iran...Iraq was. Well, Iran is twice as big and four times as hard to invade, because it's eight times as unified. And it would just be an immense undertaking. I don't think the United States has the resources to do it, and it wouldn't get any allies. And it would also, remember, take six months, maybe nine months, maybe a year to build up the forces. Never say never, but I think that is more or less unthinkable, party for the point that Tom makes, that is this is not Donald Trump's style of politics. He's a very strange character, but he does seem not to be that addicted to that particular style... There's an election coming, of course, next year. And one of the fears is that during a war... Yes. ..as what happened with George W. Bush, people tend to vote for the president. Oh, yes. There are risks. I'm just really concerned that this whole conversation about Iran, no-one has really factored in, like, the people. Yeah. The Iranian people. Like, we're talking about a population of over 80 million people, who have a culture, a history. They're, you know, very linked to traditions in the region, and, you know, we're not just talking about dehumanising them, and... Like, this has repercussions for the whole region, as Iraq did, as Afghanistan did, as what we're seeing with Syria now, Yemen, Libya. I can rattle off a litany. And this conversation doesn't exist in a vacuum. We're talking about people's lives here. And intervention, regime change, nuclear armament, all of this conversation that we're talking about, like, these people's lives, they're not political pawns. And we don't want a... And a war with Iran wouldn't just be swift and over with, um, in a couple of years, we're talking about long-term war here. And it would have devastating repercussions for the entire region, um, from Morocco to Pakistan. And not to mention that, you know, they have allies, very strong allies in Russia and China as well, which we're not talking about or mentioning here. They could activate their proxies around the region. And this could have devastating fa... ..devastating effects for generations to come. We've already seen it. But having said all this, let's not forget the fact that the Iranians are sponsoring these Shia militias all across the Persian Gulf. They've committed atrocious human rights abuses, to mainly Sunni families. Particularly in Iraq and Syria. Yeah, but, Tom, don't discard the fact that there's already a growing human rights movement within Iran. They are people with agency as well. It's very easy for people here to talk about war as if it's an abstract concept. If you've had no proximity to it, you haven't been personally affected by it, it's very easy to sit in your think tanks and sit in your universities and just talk about it. This is real... (APPLAUSE) ..real people's lives. SCOTT RYAN: I think, Tony, we can all agree... Hypotheticals are good for discussion. They're not good for decision. Yeah. And they're very difficult in this circumstance. I think everyone can broadly agree that successful policy here means no violent conflict and no use of force. Exactly. Is it hypothetical, though, when the President of the United States says, "We could obliterate sections of your country "if you don't do what we say?" Not to mention the crippling sanctions on the country. Well, actually, sanctions can be a very useful alternative to the use of force. In fact, I remember when it came to the second Iraq conflict, you know, under George W Bush, one of the arguments was sanctions should be used instead of force. So I don't think anyone's proposing that we actually completely wind back all the sanctions on Iran, because of the risk that this region has, and of this particular regime, which has been demonstrated. No-one's talking about... I'm sorry, guys, I'm going to have... Tom, just make your final point, we'll move on. Containment and deterrence can work. I mean, it can't work against terrorists who can run and hide. But rogue states like Iran, like Saddam's Iraq... What about Israel? Are we talking about Israel as well? ..they have a mailing address, and a return address. And if they ever use WMD, that would guarantee massive annihilation. OK, let's move on. Remember, if you hear any doubtful claims on Q&A, let us know on Twitter. Keep an eye on the RMIT ABC Fact Check and The Conversation website for the results. The next question, um, right down to parochial politics in Australia, comes from Russell Adams. In Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne's new appointments to business...businesses, whose major clients include Australian government agencies, many Australians see them as having significant potential conflicts of interest. Should a revised code of conduct for politicians include not only avoiding conflicts of interest, in and out of office, but also being seen to be avoiding such conflicts? And should the arbiter for potential conflicts of interests be an independent third party rather than a Parliamentary body? Penny Wong. Start with you. Well, let's be clear about the ministerial code of conduct says first. It relevantly says two things, one is after you have been a minister for 18 months, you can't lobby in your area. And the second thing it says is that you won't take personal advantage of information you've gained as a consequence of your ministerial office that isn't otherwise available to the general public. Who is the current enforcer of the code? It's Mr Morrison. So I guess what I'd say to you is that there's no point in increasing the stringency of the ministerial code if the current code is not enforced. And it's, ultimately, a matter for the Prime Minister to decide how he is going to ensure that ministers, whether in office or after they leave office, comply with the code. Now, I note... We raised concerns about this, the public raised concerns about both Mr Pyne and Ms Bishop's appointment. They assert they're not breaching the code. That's actually not the test. Er, it's not a subjective test. (LAUGHTER) (CLEARS THROAT) I didn't mean that to get a laugh, but, anyway! (LAUGHTER) There you go! And I think it is incumbent upon the Prime Minister to explain to Australians, "This is my code. I set it. "I'm the Prime Minister, "and this is how I'm going to ensure it's enforced." Penny Wong, isn't the problem here that these are guidelines? No, these are... And they're not laws, so there's no way of actually enforcing them? Nor is ministerial accountability to the Parliament. That's a Westminster convention. I mean, this is... But you can sack ministers, you can't sack a non-minister who's retired. Well, then, the Prime Minister should say what other sanction he thinks is necessary. They are his standards. And he ought enforce them. And I think reasonable questions have been raised about whether or not these two particular appointments comply with the two provisions that I outlined. OK, Scott Ryan, are you disturbed by this? I'm more familiar with professional services firms than I am with the foreign aid component. So I'm more familiar with Christopher Pyne's, um, position than I am with Julie Bishop's. It was certainly a very carelessly worded statement. I'll be honest. I mean, I don't think the statement helped in that sense. There's also the lobbying code of conduct, and the ministerial statement of standards does interact with that. And one of the things the lobbying code of conduct talks about is a very broad definition of what constitutes lobbying, and it also reinforces the ministerial statement by saying that applies here as well. So I think it's a good idea that the Prime Minister has directed the secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet - the most senior public servant in the country - to look at this. But I do make the point this is a code of conduct and a statement of standards that actually predates the coalition government as well. It's been in a place a very long time. Um, I think that... PENNY WONG: You updated it. We... The changes... Changed it quite a lot. Actually, the changes... Well, you're allowed to hold shares... The changes weren't - don't relate to anything to do with this. I believe the words are the same about this. That's true. Now, I think let's wait and see what the secretary of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet says. I mean, community standards do evolve. Let's wait to see what he says. It seems the community standards, that is to say the pub test, seems to be going in the other direction. Well, I'm not... There seems to be a distrust of these politicians using these positions... And this is why I made the observation. I think the statements from a couple of the organisations were particularly carelessly worded. So, you're the President of the Senate, your colleague Tony Smith is the Leader of...is the Speaker in the House. Could you both take a stand here and set rules to take away the permissions of these people to operate inside the Parliament? Technically, yeah, all passes to Parliament, other than from MPs, are granted by the presiding officers. Um, but that's not... Could you decide that they're breaching the code... No, that would... I mean, it's not... It's a government code, it's not a code of the Parliament. There have been proposals, and I know some states have Parliamentary ethics advisers, I make no observation on that. But that's one model that's been put up to actually allow people to ask questions and seek counsel, as well as to have an enforcement mechanism. They haven't been supported by either houses of our Parliament. So that's why I say let's look to see what the secretary of Prime Minister and Cabinet says. They oversee the operation of this, they may have recommendations. And we'll see where it goes from there. But I note that Penny also said that there's not been a breach of the code. I think part of this question goes to - has community standards evolved? Well, I don't know if there has or not. I mean, I think, on the face of it, it looks problematic, doesn't it? I said, on the face of it, that looks like a breach. What I said was they have asserted there's no breach. Oh, my apologies. But that's not the test. I don't think... I think this is space where... And as a former Special Minister of State, I had to reform the expenses regime for members of Parliament. And I saw community standards evolve. And so there may be a space for that here, there may not be. So just quickly, just to clarify that - are you saying that community standards may evolve to be more lenient? No, to be more... No, they might require tightening, as they have in other spaces. Sorry, that's... I'm just going to leave that one with the politicians because we've got quite a few questions... TOM SWITZER: This bloke makes a really good point, he reflects widespread concerns. Can I just make the point too that Clyde... ..Christopher Pyne entered Parliament in '93, Julie Bishop entered Parliament in '98, which means that they're entitled to a very generous Parliamentary superannuation scheme, which was changed by Howard and Latham in 2004. So, getting to your question, they stand to make anywhere between $250,000 and $350,000, tax-free, for the rest of their lives. So it's not like they're on Struggle Street. So why not just wait 18 months before you use your insider influence to make a buck? Tom, they're aspirational! (LAUGHTER) I think there's a widespread community view, and it's not just Penny, it's also Pauline Hanson and the Greens that reflect this view. Alright, let's move on... That's an interesting combo. (LAUGHTER) That sentence is not often said! (LAUGHTER) OK, let's move on. The next question is from Aisheeya Huq. As a Muslim youth, I feel as though the response to Israel Folau's extremist preaching would be vastly different if, rather than a Christian, he were a Muslim. If Israel Folau were a Muslim, would the Attorney-General be considering new laws to protect religious freedoms? Diana, we'll start with you. Yeah. Thank you for that great question. Obviously, the topic of Folau's case in particular has gotten a lot of air time lately. And I'm more interested in the discussion that's happening this week with interested groups and the consultation process that the Morrison government is going through with this Religious Discrimination Act. Um, I think that most of us would agree, and particularly as a Muslim woman myself, um, that, you know, we should - anyone who chooses to practise or otherwise should be free to practise their religion, free from discrimination as well. Um, and particularly in light of the aftermath of Christchurch, having just gotten back from New Zealand myself, I think it's even more pertinent now than ever that we are protected from religious discrimination. I just, you know, it's really important though that during this whole debate that's been sparked, and we've had this conversation that's been aired out, you know, every week, particularly on this show as well, it's really important that these consultations, and the process that's being undergone now, that the act doesn't allow people or give them a licence to discriminate. And having those conversations are really important to have because, particularly of communities that could be affected - the LGBTQI community, and women as well - single mothers. So it's really important that this bill strikes a balance that people who are free to practise their religion are not granted a licence to discriminate. Scott, we'll just take you back to the question. The questioner asked - would we still be having the same debate and the calls for a Religious Freedom Act if Israel Folau had been a Muslim? I'll be honest, I don't know. I mean, I think this debate's been brewing for a while. I think this debate follows a longer debate we've had about the laws around speech that has been going on for several years. Now, I think this has got two issues. There's firstly the issue of what are you allowed to contract for? And is the state allowed to interfere in the rights of contract? Then there is, secondly, laws around limiting of speech. Now, I've said before, I am particularly radical and liberal on this. I'm much more down the American school of free speech in terms of - and that applies to defamation law, laws we have around vilification as well as laws we have about publication, um, and freedom of the media. That's not a common view, I must say. But I think we've got to be careful whether we go down to what I say - trying to use the Elizabethan phrase of 'peering into people's souls'. I don't know if something can be said, or something that is said should be legal, because of a particular religious view, whether that be being Christian, being Muslim, or the writings of L. Ron Hubbard, that would otherwise be illegal if I didn't have a religious - if I wasn't being that. I don't like laws going to motive. I like laws looking at actions. And so I think the Attorney-General is being very responsible here. I've had discussions with him. He understands the complexity, and he's undertaking consultation within the Parliamentary party before he takes it out to stakeholder groups. I just think we need to be careful. And I start from that point that I don't think we need more laws limiting speech. But at the same time, I think this is a complex balancing of competing interests - that we've got to be careful we don't draft a broad law that then just kicks the ball into the judiciary or tribunals, and we don't know where the answer's going to land. Penny Wong? OK. (CLEARS THROAT) Can I... There are two points or two issues I want to address. First, in relation to Mr Folau. Can I say first just on an emotional level - I wish that we could have more expressions of love and forgiveness rather than condemnation when it came to belief. And I wish that public figures - politicians, sporting stars, et cetera - might consider for a moment - and I think I've been on this show saying this before - where their words land in vulnerable Australians... Yep. ..before they speak them. Now, he is entitled to his beliefs. I disagree with them. And I think we ought remember he doesn't speak for all Christians. In terms of the broader issue, we are an accepting, tolerant nation. We...we...we aspire to deal with each other respectfully. So whatever happens in this current debate around religious freedom, et cetera, I think we mustn't lose sight of those key characteristics of Australian identity. We don't want to become less accepting, we don't want to become less tolerant. We don't want to abrogate our agreed view that people are entitled to equality before the law, that we believe that people are equal, regardless of gender, race, faith, sexuality, disability, et cetera. We should hold, I think, to those objectives, that we're not seeking to diminish that. I'm open to a discussion about how we deal with religious protections. But I would make this point - and I made this point during the marriage equality debate - there is a distinction between a right to belief and the assertion that that belief should lead to you being treated differently before the law. And that is a big thing to do. There are circumstances where Australia has done that. We have particular provisions, for example, in the Sex Discrimination Act where because someone has a belief they are not required to behave as other Australians are before the law. But I think we need to think very carefully about how we manage this debate. I hope it can be done in a way that's not partisan. I hope it can be done respectfully and I hope it can be done with the objective of ensuring that just as Australians of faith don't wish to be discriminated against, that Australians...that Australians of other attributes also don't wish to be discriminated against. Just a quick one on this because we may be about to see it - religious freedom legislation. What would you be worried about? Well, I think I've just... The principles I've just articulated. I'm happy and I think the Labor Party is happy to engage constructively. What I don't want to see is the objectives that are part of our Australian identity - tolerant, accepting nation, in which people are treated equally. I don't want those abrogated. That requires a very sensitive and respectful discussion. Alright. I'm going to move on because we've got a couple of other questions we really should be talking about. This first one is from Aakriti Shoree. Hello. So, over one million Uyghur Muslims are being held in internment camps in China at the moment, with new reports describing the forcible removal of children from their families. Considering that Australia has imposed autonomous sanctions on countries like Zimbabwe, Myanmar and Syria for human rights abuses in the past, do you think that there is more we can do to prevent further systemic violence against this ethic minority, or do our trade relations trump our moral conscience? I will start with our non-politicians. Tom? (RIPPLE OF APPLAUSE) Well, I genuinely feel your pain. On my Radio National program I've had a few segments dealing with the besieged Muslim population of north-west China. And it's not just a question for the government. It's also the media. How often do you see this issue raised on the front pages of newspapers? It's hardly raised...I find. And it's quite extraordinary given the systematic repression of these poor souls in a brutal authoritarian regime. Now, with respect to your question, human rights is a very noble and powerful impulse - one that shouldn't be casually dismissed. And for human rights activists, like Diana, they're a cause. But for governments, human rights are one of many interests that they have to take into account when they deliberate on foreign policy, such as, stability, order, prosperity. They're moral values too. So in the course of making foreign policy, governments will base their decisions according to the circumstances and no-one in their right mind is suggesting that Australia join some sort of economic embargo on China to punish them for the way they're treating the Muslim population. It's a tough, tough issue. But this is one of the dilemmas - getting back to the original questions we were raising at the start of the show - about how we deal with our largest trade partner. How tough can we be with it? Diana? I would suggest a lot tougher, Tom. Absolutely. The one million Uyghur Muslims that are in re-education camps, akin to concentration camps, are having to renounce their faith, having to be arbitrarily detained, separated from their families. Some of them are surmounting to torture, the way that they're being treated. Again, Muslims suffering in neighbouring...in our region, and we're not saying anything, really. We're remaining silent. Again, with Myanmar, as well, with the Rohingya Muslims there, where Australia continued to aid and support and train the Myanmar military, where there was an ethnic cleansing campaign of Rohingya Muslims there. I mean, what is it going to take for Australia to actually take a moral and principled stance on human rights? I get your point, Tom, but human rights underpins the stability of every nation. If they don't have that, then that country is not something that we should be engaging with. We should be using all of the levers that we have to try and influence for positive change. Because how many more Uyghur Muslims - over one million now in China. How many more Rohingya Muslims need to be displaced from their homes? We're talking about people here again. Men, women and children being displaced from their homes. But how can we be effective and not just merely feel virtuous? What can we actually do to change the outcome? Let me throw that question to Hugh because I want to hear from the other panellists as well. Go ahead. Well, I think... The question you phrase - you framed the question exactly the right way. On the one hand, we have a very deep and passionate, really, anxiety about what's happening, for example, to the Uyghurs. On the other hand we have a relationship with China which just about defines our economic future. You know, if you ask the average Australian, "What's our economic future?" The answer is China. And one thing we can be pretty sure of is that decisive action by Australia on the Uyghur issue would have immense economic consequences for us. And that's what these guys do for a living. They strike that balance. And against a country like Zimbabwe, that doesn't matter much to us economically, it's easy. Against a country, like China, and I don't want to trivialise this but our economic relationship with China relates to the economic wellbeing of just about everyone in this room. Everyone watching. It is a huge issue. It's a terrible issue, actually. But I've got to say pessimistically I think the chances that anything Australia would do would actually make any difference, no matter how radical, are very low. That doesn't end the moral conversation but it's certainly part of the moral conversation. It leaves me very gloomy about it. Penny Wong? Well, first, as a sort of overarching principle, your foreign policy should be an expression of your identity, your values and your interests. And it is a question of ascertaining what is the right path through all of those propositions. Second, in relation to the Uyghurs, that has been raised. I can't speak for the government. I'll let Scott do it. But I certainly can say we have raised that publicly. The then Leader of the Opposition was asked questions about it at a particular speech he did and he responded accordingly. We've asked questions in the Parliament, in Senate estimates, about these issues because we should ask those questions and they should be made public - what we do know and what our concerns are - because the rule of law and human rights do matter. But I think there is a reasonable question about effectiveness. There are times where private discussions are... ..one judge's to be the most effective way there. There are times where public discussion is the most effective way. And the judgement about trade, I think that you reference, I think Hugh is right. The reality is it's an asymmetric relationship economically. So I'm not sure that that would be an effective way of dealing with those issues. Scott Ryan? Well, in short, I agree with broadly what Hugh and Tom and Penny have said. We have to look at this through the prism of our values. We do have a human rights discussion with China. But in politics, you've also got to look at capacity, and the truth is that - as Penny described as asymmetric - we would have little impact upon China and an enormous impact upon Australia. So the effectiveness of any action we took would be virtually zero. On that basis, I don't necessarily... I don't think we should be shy about being realistic, that we can use economic sanctions where we know they work. But there's no point, necessarily, in inflicting great harm upon Australians if that would damage a relationship, prevent the conversations that are always ongoing around a range of issues, but also not have the desired effect the sanction is hoped to. I am going to give you the final word because we're nearly out of time. You've heard the pragmatic arguments. Yeah. Your response? What you essentially have all said on the panel here today is that Muslim lives don't matter. That is not true. PENNY: That's not fair. That's what people are hearing at home. Diana... They're hearing in the audience. That is just so heartbreaking to hear that. And I'm just really disappointed because we have so many levers in the toolbox that we could be using to influence foreign policy. We could be using it - trade... And it doesn't... Human rights are not mutually exclusive to our values around trade. It's really important that we try to engage critically with these nations and try to influence when these things are happening. It's not just happening... You know, it's a mass scale, ethnic cleansing campaign in Myanmar. Re-education camps of over a million Uyghur Muslims in China at the moment. This is the most disappointing result, I think, from the panel tonight. SCOTT: The discussion we had is not worthy of that bumper sticker, quite frankly. I'm really disappointed. That's my opinion. In fact, Australia on the Rohingya issue - has on a bipartisan basis - been quite active internationally. We're still training... Military haven't cut military aid. I understand your point. We're still engaging with the Myanmar military. I don't think... Senator Wong... I don't think it was a reasonable proposition to put to us, that somehow...somehow certain lives don't matter. All lives matter. Well, that's what I'm hearing. That's what people at home are hearing. That is not what I am saying. That is not what I am saying. What people at home are looking at is the time and I'm afraid we're out of it. That's all we have time for. Please thank our panel - Scott Ryan, Diana Sayed, Hugh White, Penny Wong and Tom Switzer. (APPLAUSE) Thank you very much. Now, you can continue the discussion and it's a very good idea to continue all of these discussions with Q&A Extra on NewsRadio and Facebook Live where Tracey Holmes is joined by Peter Fray of the Centre For Media Transition at the University of Technology in Sydney. Next week, Q&A will be coming to you live from Melbourne where we'll be joined by the Shadow Minister for Families, Linda Burney, Jim Molan, the former Liberal Senator, who may yet make a comeback, Rebekha Sharkie from the Centre Alliance, marketing strategist Toby Ralph of Gruen fame, and ABC radio announcer Sami Shah. Until then, goodnight. Captions by Red Bee Media Copyright Australian Broadcasting Corporation
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Channel: abcqanda
Views: 13,694
Rating: 4.28125 out of 5
Keywords: Q&A, QandA, auspol, australian politics, Tony Jones, politics, abc, abc news, Scott Ryan, Penny Wong, Diana Sayed, Tom Switzer, Hugh White, nuclear power stand off between North Korea and US, Australia's nuclear weapons, economic relations to China, Iran crisis, religious freedoms for all faiths, Australia's involvement with Uyghur Muslims in China
Id: tZLJ2lNF37c
Channel Id: undefined
Length: 63min 48sec (3828 seconds)
Published: Mon Jul 08 2019
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