News Today With Rajdeep Sardesai: What Is The State Of Play After 4 Phases? | Lok Sabha Poll 2024

good evening hello and welcome you're with the news today your Prime Time destination news newsmakers talking points the big talking point what is the state of play after four phases of the general election India has voted 96 constituencies today does the BJP still remain in pole position as opinion posters had said at the start of the election is the opposition catching up or falling behind is this election turning as Sama suggesting we'll have all the countries top Pathologists and political pollsters joining us tonight but first as always it's time for the nine headlines at 9 voting for 96 seats across 10 states and union territories in Phase 4 concludes voter turnout at around 62.9% so far Andra Pradesh votes for assembly seats amidst instances of violence being reported from Bengal Andra and telengana Jammu and Kashmir shagar Witnesses the highest voter turnout in last two decades overall voter turnout here stands at 36.7% until 5:00 p.m. it's the highest in the last five elections a day before filing his nomination from Varanasi Prime Minister Modi holds a 5 kilm Road Show in Kashi tells India today he will make 400 power of reality in an interview Hyderabad BJP candidate madavi L under the scanner booked after facing action for checking the identities of Muslim Women Voters while inside a polling station JDS MLA HD ranana gets bailed in sexual assault case his son prajal who has two rape cases against him continues to be on holiday in Germany half MP Swati malwal allegedly assaulted by Chief Minister kajal's PA police say no written complaint filed STI reportedly did visit the Civil Lions police station no official word from the arm admy party [Music] yet Mumbai billboard collapses in G coper after severe dust storm for Liv St so far Maharashtra chief minister shind at the spot former US president Donald Trump on trial in the hush money case his former fixer now a star witness takes the stand claimes he was asked to handle the hush money payment by Trump sweeping wildfires grip Canada thousands evacuated with over 100 active wildfires alarm bills ring in neighboring [Music] us but our big story this Monday night the curtains have come down on first four of the Lok SAA elections we are now past the halfway mark of the world's biggest electoral exercise voting took place today 96 constituencies spread over 10 states and union territories the good news was in shagar where voters turned out in much larger numbers than before recording 36.7% which is the highest there in two decades but the polling process was marred by violent inces in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in particular where there were local level clashes in Hyderabad too there was controversy when BJP candidate there madavi L was booked after a video emerged online showing her asking bka clad Women Voters inside polling boo to reveal their faces for identity verification a TDP Neta was seen slapping a voter in Bengal there was a scuffle involving a ysrcp leader in Andra as well Bengal too saw pole violence after bjp's dilip Go's Convoy was allegedly attacked and there were reports of TMC agents entering polling boots and guiding voters there remember this 4as is crucial also among others for akiles yadav who's trying to win his back his family Bastion of kog from the BJP so there was plenty of action today it was a day of controversy first to tell you turnout loksabha polls this is what the provisional figures and remember these are provisional 2014 was 65.8% for these very constituencies then 2019 it went up to 67.2 2024 as of 8:00 p.m. 62.9% but remember if we go by what we've seen in the first few rounds the polling percentage by the next few days goes up by 3 3 to 4% so roughly polling percentage coming close to where it was in 2019 we'll of course have to wait for the final numbers and remember this is National there are strong Regional variations Bengal had the highest voter turnout for example but we've had low voter turnouts in other parts of the country well what does one say all eyes now are on who wins the big election of 2024 after four rounds what is the state of play the question that we are going to raise what is the state of play after four phases is the BJP still in full position as most analysts said at the start of this election is the opposition catching up as some people believe or is it falling behind is 272 the new Target or is the bjp's new Target 400 these are some of the questions that we are going to be raising uh joining us now uh Dr surjit Bala he's just written a book citizen Raj that looks very closely at election Trends since 1952 I'm also joined by uh pradep Gupta joins me in a moment here in the studio the axis my India Champion pollster is with us uh in a moment also joining us is yogendra yadav uh who remember has stuck his neck out and claimed that the NDA will not get the halfway majority also of 272 he is the outlier at the moment in India claiming that the NDA is not even going to go to the halfway mark so I'm going to come to each of you and ask you for why you where you believe uh the state of Play Lies after these four rounds and yogendra yadav I'll give you the first shot since you've said the most controversial statement on Twitter you've claimed that the BJP will be less than 250 and the NDA less than 272 is this Wishful Thinking by someone who's seen as a Critic of the Modi government what is the basis why you saying that you believe that the BJP is falling behind Raj let me Begin by stating very clearly upfront that I'm no longer a seist I used to be one p I'm a political worker uh political workers need not be Liars they can try and get and I try really try very hard to keep my hopes and my assessment separate so what I'm offering is the assessment which I have made after traveling I don't have any exit pole with me uh it's a ground assessment based on the on on the basis of travels on the basis of listening reading speaking finding out that's all that it is and what I have said is the following when the elections began I said I wrote that it is possible to bring BJP below 272 but I wasn't sure if that was actually going to happen happened because I didn't think opposition was doing what was needed to bring BJP below 272 when elections came closer round one and round two and I started traveling I saw something was changing on the ground and then I started saying maybe BJP is coming below 272 and after the third round and after my travel and my travel specifically let me again put everything on the table I've gone to Rajasthan Punjab harana utar Pradesh Bihar Telangana Karnataka and chattis gar other places based on what I've heard what I've spoken to uh on that basis my assessment today is that BJP it's not only possible BJP indeed is below 272 as of now things the way they are going my assessment is that they are below 272 and for the first time it has appeared to me that NDA could be below 272 uh in what you've seen the Twitter the video that I've posted that puts it 268 but Raj let me be quite straight about it I don't have any such instrument with me on the basis of which I can say exactly 268 and not 278 not 288 or not 248 no I don't have that these are very broad estimate and all what I'm saying means is that we can be more or less certain now that BJP is much below 2 272 and that it's an open question whether even NDA could form a majority so broadly what I'm saying is the idea that BJP could up the seats from 2019 that can be completely ruled out that is simply not true okay BJP to my mind is unable to retain what it had in 2019 it's coming down how much is it coming down that's something open to debate we can discuss it I have one assessment others can have different assessment I'll come to your specifics later in the show but surjit Bala you had stuck your neck out soon after your book was released you believed that the BJP would be more than 300 and the NDA more than 350 are you still sticking to that after four rounds of the battle for 2024 sujit yeah thank you Raj for having me actually you said citizen Raj that's my old book this is the new book how my apologies yeah um and yes I'm very much sticking to what the forecast is um in how we vote which was done in somewhere around February quite honestly I don't you know if anybody were to read the book and I suggest all of you do it that I base it on economic performance primarily and that's how people vote indeed the last line of my book is is the economy stupid um which of as you know comes from none other than Bill Clinton in his 1992 campaign so looking around at the first four phases obviously like you and like all election junkies I'm following it very closely I haven't seen any sign to the vines the forecast now you're going to have seen a lot of signs to bring it down I haven't seen any signs to bring it down at all and that's why you have horse races because people have different views on events on on forecasts and we'll all have to wait and see till Jan June 4th as to which one of us is more accurate and I'm waiting to hear what prep has to say um but basically the economy every sign of the economy every data point that we received on the economy is reinforcing that it really is doing very well so um I'm afraid I don't see much uh reason to bring down or to change my forecast in any way it remains 330 to 350 for the BJP on it all okay I'm going to again come back to you also for specifics because when you say 330 to 350 that means the BJP is doing even better than last time and I'm going to ask you to remember to pick up where you believe they'll grow but pradep Gupta you're the only one out of us who's doing a poll and I know because of regulations you cannot reveal the numbers and of course you've got an exit poll or we have an exit poll coming up with you on the 1st of June so we'll keep the suspense for that but I want to answer you went on a last after the third round and said Z and immediately that went viral to say prep Gupta is saying 2024 is a repeat of 2019 can you clarify is pradep Gupta saying that 2024 could be could be a repeat or is likely to be a repeat of 2019 I want Clarity so Raj let me tell you at access my India or pradep Gupta for that matter what surjit G said is not was to reveal release say anything as far as the numbers goes because of ECI guidelines so we'll have to wait till the last vote cast till that time even even I do not have any kind of numbers whatsoever that's me let me clarify very candidly now second thing you asked the as Chanel and sudhir Chri G asked me some questions and I replied he simply that's what I said then that's it no so are you saying means what that there is no great change that you're seeing compared to 2019 that's why people are saying pradep Gupta is saying BJP Still Remains in Pole Position when I as as 2019 numbers go if I say anything on these lines in a way in a way I'm saying some kind of a number which I'm not I'm asking you for a number I am saying you're saying so far you forget the numbers I'm not asking you that I'm not asking you to go into that I'm saying is pradep Gupta saying that he's seeing no signs of major change in this country at the moment that's all I'm asking yes I am saying so you are saying that pradep Gupta is not seeing any signs of major change in this country I emphasize the word major nothing to do with numbers nothing to do with numbers but you're saying you're not seeing any major change between voting trends of 2019 and 24 correct correct okay that's the closest that pradep is going to come to tell us that therefore it could well be Advantage BJP the only reason I'm saying this is my interpretation because remember BJP got 303 seats last time the NDA got 353 when pradep Gupta says that there could be no major changes effectively at least party number one there is no doubt in now again people can interpretate even major changes with the VIS upside down that's the meaning I know at least when somebody say that is something I I I I don't see at all on the ground okay yogendra yadav therefore you've got pradep Gupta saying no major change now you are the one who's saying on this show major change can you tell us and we've had a fourth round today where the major changes you're seeing which are those states where you believe this election is turning because you're clearly saying this election has turned uh Raj let me Begin by expressing my agreement with both the panelists In This Very civilized conversation which is so rare on television number one I actually completely agree with Dr Bala it's the economy stupid uh both of us agree with this I think the only difference that both of us have is uh which direction the economy has gone and who exactly is stupid we have a minor difference on that because what I heard Raj when I traveled and I'm you know you can tell me because you've probably traveled a little more than I have when I hear from people talk about you know what's motivating their elections the only thing related to economy that goes in Mr modi's favor is russan people give him credit for giving cheap Russian free Russian Supply across in a universal manner but if you press a Modi voter and say why are you voting for Mr Modi they actually don't mention anything to do with the economy to begin with all of them said that's one thing I hear second thing I hear is 370 Kashmir third thing I hear is Ram now to my mind these three are not economy related issues however when people talk of economy and that's where I agree with Dr balah to my mind the decisive thing is what people feel about economy and at least I hear them speaking about mangi I hear them speaking about berari I hear them speaking about what's happening to kissan I hear them speak speaking about what's happening in examinations about uh the real life issues and on most of these are weigh against the BJP uh I don't know if most of the voters that I met knew much about GDP probably they didn't uh but they knew something about what's happening to their own family their own economy and what's happened and they were quite angry uh on what Mr pradep Gupta said the reason I agree with him is that I'm also not saying ol fair in the sense that uh this is not a 1977 election you know uh this is not an election where at least at this stage I don't think BJP is going below 200 I don't think BJP is taking that kind of a threshing no but to my mind it is a significant change and the significant change is this that BJP there is a significant swing against the BJP from Gujarat to Bihar this entire belt that the BJP had swept and add to it Karnataka as well that may or may not result in seat change in different places in Gujarat the margin is so big uh that the swing may not affect very many seats but in Rajasthan especially in eastern Rajasthan it will affect seats in harana it will affect seats and in utar Pradesh and Bihar as well it is affecting significant number of seats uh which is to say so my estimate that you refer to very kindly was that BJP could go down by 70 seats compared to 2 uh uh compared to 2019 and I suspect rajdeep you and I remember 2004 I mean I'm saying I'm taking the liberty of saying that because we were together at that time in a channel working and sharing notes every evening and remember what happened in 2004 every pollster got the figures and they were in and pollsters do not get a precise number they get a range and every pollster was giving margin of error adjusting margin of error in bjp's favor in every single state therefore every pollster had an inflated figure for the BJP even after they had polls in reality something very different happened I would not be surprised if that kind of a thing happens however I do not expect uh you know India with a 300 plus seats no that kind of but fair I also don't expect so you're saying you could have you're seeing traces of 2004 interesting I'll come back to Dr Bala in a moment but uh pradep Gupta you know 2004 is often cited by many who say an election could turn have you seen in your experience of polling elections turning Midway can elections turn Midway or do most voters decide a month in advance two months in advance vote Den or do they decide last 24 48 Hours when we say you know in a seven phase election suddenly someone is coming from behind and could play catch up as yogendra yadav is suggesting does that actually happen actually it's a or very rarely no no it's it's like this about 30 to 40% if it is a bipolar election in any state it differ state to state but any state which has a bipolar contest generally between 30% to 40% vote share is more or less aligned or fixed it is the last that 20 to 30% voters we call them floaters they switch the sides and most of the time the difference between the margin between winner and loser is mostly between 10 to 20% vote so I would say it depend again state to state the floating voters is always there which they make up their mind generally generally 1 month prior to the election start you know the reason I'm asking you this is you're saying state by state now one of the key differences between 2019 and 24 that many people are noticing on the ground 2024 post balakot there was a sweep and it registered in votes also northwest and central India this time we are talking state by state Maharashtra state where you live and my home state everyone I speak to says Ki tuer I never heard the word Ki tuer in Maharashtra in 2019 are we seeing some states this time Bengal is another example of Ki Tucker States within this large in India is not just one state one general election it is a Ser uh aggregation of State elections are you seeing Ki tuer in some states or not Raj you mentioned Maharashtra we all know that the political alignment has totally changed in Maharashtra in 2019 and then to now and that is the precisely reason why nobody knows even voters are confused and until and unless actually who is standing and if you see in Maharashtra right from phase one till today last minut announc Announcement by the different political party at the candidate announcement takes some time and that is the precisely reason why no no but are we right in saying that some of the states which in 2024 saw one relatively one-sided battles have become closer this time would I be right in saying that generally there's a sense this election has become more localized or is that again anecdotal not bearing out the you know what you're seeing I am more than convinced I'm more than convinced Bala had there been no balakot impact even then even then BJP and NDA would have got definitely 330 plus seats instead of 352 so you're saying it only got 20 25 extra seats it's all about performance and delivery nothing else which matters on the ground what Dr Bala and our friend yog Yogen is suggesting but there is a big butt over here MH if there is a problem even for that matter if there is a unemployment and inflation is the issue I I'm more than again convinced for last 50 years these two issues were always there little bit more or little bit less and these two issue will always be there in next 50 years but the question is who is right plac or appropriate to address them this is what is always going in the voter's mind when they cast the vote this is the most important I know you have to go to aak for a couple of more in a couple of more minutes so let me press you on one more thing Andra Pradesh because it's had assembly and loksabha everyone is looking at very keenly Andra Pradesh there was a lot of violence there it shows how competitive the election has been voter turnout decides you believe a Clos run race or Women Voters will you be looking closely in the next few days at Women Voters in particularly the mahila factor I'm looking at it very closely I believe the mahila factor is going to be important not just for Prime Minister Modi but also for a jagan r or chra Babu Naidu mahila factor is the top most Factor because it impact 50% of the total population and the voters for that matter this this is the precisely reason why Always mahila voters these days particularly what had changeed in 20 years back and now because of technology and information age even the mahila voter the large numbers I'm talking about take the informed decision take the informed decision and most of the time we are seeing in last 10 years the female votes differently and the male vote differently so Andra Pradesh could be decided by the mahila voter every state I saying every state in India this time it will be mahila voter is the key if there was one key factor that you would point out in 202 I'm telling you one more thing you won't believe in this election itself I I can tell you one thing I'm not saying any number of seats the woman voter in a particular Community is voting totally different than the male voter I'm telling you totally different the male voter with full conviction I'm telling you this you're giving us you're saying your early Trend suggests Women Voters are voting very differently from men and that could become a critical factor in this election am I correct definitely yes Raj and again I telling you vote cost mhm those who come for vote 80% 80% livelihood is directly or indirectly depend on government of the day so they elect and select government and leader very very very carefully the way you select any job or profession for that matter and because of this technology people know if this is the road condition whether good bad had or was who is responsible for this whether the municipality the state government or the central government and they based on this performance they take decision it's all about delivery delivery delivery all other issues has had very high voter has had a better record among women than male voters are we seeing that getting repeated could that get repeated pradep is the woman voter going to be the key in this election it is very simple who who ever takes care of me I will go with them okay so therefore you know yogendra yadav that from taking up from what pradep Gupta is saying is effectively suggesting that when you say rashan is an issue many will say it's the woman who's the beneficiary of livelihood issues pradep Gupta is coming as close I would say to admitting that that is Mr modi's trump card do you agree or not uh Raj in fact I had said that one of the things that's working for Mr MO is Russian delivery of Russian which people appreciate for which they give him credit uh I don't think most people I mean I don't think even 10% voters know that national food Security Act was passed by UPA that they were the Congress was the party to have started it no people simply think Mr Modi started it they give him credit and yes Mr Modi this is something which is working to his Advantage at the same time when we think of livelihood issues unemployment is an issue like never before I agree with prep G that inflation is something you hear all the time but this kind of emphasis on unemployment this is extraordinary the kind of unease and anger about it there is a lot of unease on that I would just add a couple of things Raj uh to this one is to say to my mind uh what is an you know if what Mr prb Gupta said was not happening then of course BJP would be nowhere if we had a situation where Mr Modi did not have these Advantage a a certain degree of popularity which he still enjoys B except you know appreciation for Russian uh see this broad image which I find mythical this image of having lifted Count's uh Spirits uh country's reputation and so on if these three things were not working in Mr modi's favor this would be 1977 they would be wiped out of course these things are working and then that is why BJP is still clearly number one party in terms of seats so I do not see any party coming close to becoming number one party of course all these things are working however the real question is do we see a certain subtle change and I invite your viewers your viewers to join it I'm a political worker your viewer might think okay why should we believe him he's he has his political views are known he is against Mr Modi all this is true so may I request you all for uh viewers to do just two simple things please go around and ask anyone you know whose judgment on politics you trust MH ask them what was the situation 15 days ago 3 weeks ago one month ago and what's the situation today has BJP become stronger or weaker that's the first question just ask stronger or weaker don't ask who is ahead number two even more importantly please step out meet Ordinary People you can do it as well as I can or Raj S as I can please go out meet 10 ordinary people who may have voted BJP 10 ordinary people who may have not voted BJP last time but don't ask them only about who they are voting this time also ask them about when they voted last time if you see that people who had not voted BJP last time are voting for BJP this time then what Mr Bala is saying is perfectly right Dr Bala must be right if you find that if you find as I did that those who did not vote for BJP are standing where they were and a small slice of those who voted for BJP is moving away from them then you have to take what I'm saying somewhat more seriously I'm going to press you a little bit more on that in a moment but Dr Bala since you see you are relating the state of the economy to voter Trends now we are seeing and I've seen this also traveling across the country I'm just back from Bihar rosar is a big issue when I meet young people in Bihar they said sir rosar number one issue is rosar forget everything else when I meet women they spoke about Russian and I'm just wondering Professor that whether we could be seeing at least among the young among voters under the age of 25 30 who last time voted euphorically for the government a shift now whether that is large enough we're not sure remember in a state like Bihar the NDA had a winning margin of over 20% in many seats so it it has a huge buffer I'm just asking you do you see it possible at all unemployment becoming the kind of issue that yogendra is saying is leading to voters who voted for BJP last time moving away this time look as you know at least I try and emphasize in my book what is the data suggested matter of fact my motto is let the data speak so as far as data is concerned let's go back to the very first survey ever done opinion poll ever done and you will find that employment unemployment which is one issue and pricewise which is another issue figures in every survey that you have done that I have done that yug yadav has done and indeed go anywhere in the world and you will find that employment and inflation are the number one and number two issues in every economy in every election so that makes you start to think what is if they and everyone then I can't use the information on employment or inflation as any indicator of what matters to the voter so I go a step further now let's look it absolutely the case that unemployment and inflation are issues I look at the Delta what is the change that's what is in the voters mind not what was 10 years ago but what was 5 years ago 4 years ago 3 years ago if you look at the unemployment rate in India and I'm talking now about the youth and then I'll get to the agregate youth 18 to 29 it was 14% 14 1 14 in 2019 when Modi won the election with 303 seats and I just want to remind all viewers that at this very same time actually two months earlier if you look at February March of 2019 what what was the ha the ha on news channels including yours was that the BJP will not get more than 200 seats that they will still be the largest party and that Modi will no longer be the PM candidate it'll be somebody else from BJP that was a har now we are seeing a parallel attempt at creation of a Hava mve but we will know on June four now coming specifically to the issue of unemployment the unemployment rate as I mentioned before was 14% in 2019 it is today 10% for the Youth for the aggregate entire sample the unemployment rate in India today is the lowest it has been in more than a decade so therefore what is the voter going to look at the voter feels you know when I say I I think yinda mentioned with GDP Etc I don't talk about GDP GDP is not what the voter is thinking about it's his or her welfare which includes jobs which includes price rise which includes what benefits you're getting and I would like to see one evidence being cited as to how the situation today in India is worse than it was in 2019 okay you I I I've got your point you're saying you believe the situation in 2024 is objectively better than it was in 2019 and if a government then wins 303 in 2019 it should therefore logically win more in 2024 but I let's let's come to specific statewise I maintain that India is state byst state battles Jen yadav when you say that the BJP could fall below 272 which are those states where you believe the BJP at the moment is get taking a hit as a result of which these numbers are coming up give me the specific states where you believe that this election has changed from 2019 Raj when the election began I thought there were four Battleground states where BJP could lose up to 10 seats each NDA could lose up to 10 seats each they were Karnataka Maharashtra Bihar and Bengal MH uh after some time I dropped Bengal from the list because the indications didn't suggest that there was going to be major turnaround and major setback for the BJP uh my friend says otherwise but at the moment I'm sticking to that but I added two more states to that list which is Rajasthan utar Pradesh and now I've added uh so these two states uh so let me now get into specifics Karnataka BJP 125 plus one independent supported by them 26 they are at least down by 10 seats my friends in Karnataka would immediately say not 10 15 at least but I'll stick to minimum minimum 10 seats Maharashtra they had 42 41 + 1 I don't see them Crossing 22 some of people whose judgment I trust most who 1 month ago told me that NDA was getting 30 seats now are not talking more than 22 that's a straight loss of 10 uh 20 seats come to Rajasthan Rajasthan alone could be 10 seats but I would put Gujarat with it maybe Gujarat would count for a couple of seats I don't expect more than that uh Rajasthan and Gujarat would take away 10 more seats M Mahar madhia Pradesh would see much less so I would say madhya Pradesh chhattisghar and jarand put together would mean another loss of 10 seats come to North harana where my friends say BJP is losing six or seven seats but I'll be I'll be you know conservative Rajasthan sorry harana Delhi Punjab chandad utar and uh Himachal Pradesh put all of them together 10 more seats gone there up and Bihar 15 each I can just give reasons for that and now I feel uh Bengal alone of course would not account for 10 loss of 10 seats but if you put Bengal with Assam with all the northeastern states and the remaining Utes they would account for loss of 10 seats as well that adds up to 100 but BJP would also gain BJP gains at least 10 seat NDA NDA gains at least 10 seats in Andhra Pradesh it could be more my judgment is not very good on this my information on Andra currently is fairly limited no personal experience but I would say at least 10 seats to NDA which is a pure which is a gain and in tamilnad uh Tamil NAD Kerala and Telangana uh I would imagine BJP is picking at least five more seats put together so that's a loss of gain of 15 so 100 minus 15 that's up to 85 that's broadly what I'm saying BJP down by 65 or 70 seats and bjp's allies down by about 15 seats now these are very very broad figures to give a broad idea I don't have an exit pole I don't have that kind of a Precision Instruments PR Gupta has and very wisely he's not talking about those numbers but because I don't have any exit poll he's saying he's saying if I may stop you numbers may I may I just say one more thing may I say just one more thing Raj just one more thing to what professor balah said you know I would not enter into a dispute with Professor balah about employment figures I think very good econom ists have done it and to my mind proven the case to be completely false but let's forget that may I invite Professor Bala for a simple experiment rajdeep and it's here on your channel rajdeep you pick up any three villages in this country any three villages give the list of three villages to Dr Bala ordinary Villages pick it by Lottery give those three villages to Dr Bala and let him pick the one Village he thinks is the best let three of us go there let let us simply ask in the village has employment situation improved if the village says that it has improved I would salute Professor Bala on your channel and I will come and offer an apology okay I I just want to ask you though before I go to Dr Bala you heard prep Gupta saying he expects no major change and he went specifically to say he without saying it in so many words in terms of number no major change that for someone like me means he still believes the BJP is in po position as it was at the start of the election do you concede that because there was such a big gap 224 seats yogendra yadav last time the BJP had 50% vote Shar in therefore to affect a reversal of the 2004 kind forget about 77 but 2004 kind also is very difficult it requires dare I say a 10 12% swing away I have seen certainly disillusionment on the ground no doubt about it but I didn't see it into convert into anger as I'm traveling so I'm just wondering where are you seeing this 10 12% swing uh r two things uh uh BJP remains in the poll position even if you uh take my numbers you know the broad numbers I've indicated if BJP has let us say 233 and let us say congress is around 90 BJP of course Remains the single largest Party by long margin so there's no doubt uh it all depends on what you mean by big change to my mind losing 30 40 50 seats is substantial but in the eyes of a pollster it may not be big change and also please remember uh that pollsters can make a uh type one error Dr Roy used to say type one error type two error and uh type one error is what everyone committed in 2004 and that's the kind of error pollsters can make I'm not saying they are in ter terms of Swing Away Raj look BJP had such large proportion of votes that if one out of five voters of BJP were to move away and that's why I'm inviting all your viewers to please do your own small little survey but please don't do it in Flats of middle class colonies please go and speak to Ordinary People of this country uh when we do that if you see one out of five or one out of six voters of BJP or NDA moving away but almost no one from Congress or other India parties moving away in that case you are confirming what I'm saying how many voters can I ask you how many voters how many voters of the BJP according to you need to move away for the BJP not to get a majority are you saying one out of every five am I correct one out of every five who voted for the BJP last time have to move away yes in BJ roughly uh it it is different in different states but uh in utar Pradesh and Bihar in in Bihar if one out of every five moves away uh BJP is about 20 seat NDA is down to 20 seats in utar Pradesh if one out of every six or seven moves away even then BJP is in trouble okay uh so it varies from state to state uh but yes if some and I I felt that there was a change of this country I could be wrong and let's wait for better survey evidence but you know to my mind one thing is certain Raj this is not 2019 replay I certainly disagree with Pradip gup G on one thing rajdeep you and I know that the mood in this country was very different before balakot and I had then said that BJP can lose 100 seats but one week after balakot I said this election is over you know you this is something has changed completely in this country mood changed people's conversations changed their stance changed I'm very surprised but any unfortunately this is a question which neither he nor I can prove because it's counterfactual but Bala cour changed everything you couldn't speak to people after that and certainly this is not 2019 by any stretch and certainly BJP is not adding to 2019 these two things I can say with all the emphasis at my command so I'll give you a final one minute Dr Bala because you've said exactly the opposite you've said actually the BJP will do even better than 2019 and if I if I may ask where is the BJP going to do better given the fact that they maxed out in Western Northern and Central India where is it when you say 3:30 uh the BJP are you saying that the BJP will win in unexpected areas and hold on to their own broadly that okay it's only 25 or 27 more seats yes than they got last time a few here a few West Bengal the very controversial State who knows but I you know I'm not a a m I'm not a micro Village State estimate ever and as far as balakot is concerned my book that you refer to Citizen Raj was written before balakot happened and that had something like 283 seats for the BJP so so I think it's it's highly debatable whether how much of a difference balakot made so are you saying it's stability continuity and leadership are you saying it's stability continuity leadership are you saying the voter wants a stable government Above All Else and in the absence of a of seeming the stability on the other side that's the reason why you maintain it's going to be 300 330 am I correct absolutely look what is the vter forget the economy Etc let's look at the oppos position they don't have a face and yunda knows this Etc every election all elections in the world are now presidential MH okay they don't have a face second I don't think they have any new ideas and the ideas that they have are regressive for the average voter it's not regressive for all voters obviously but so I want to look at the evidence what is it that will make forget the magnitude that yug is talking about a massive uh move away from the BJP I don't even see a trickle away from the BJP because I don't issues issues that will lead for trickle away half there half here five seats here five seats there I can understand but this thing so I think it's a it's exactly what I said in the beginning this is a horse race and people have different uh forecasting ability I don't know whether my prediction would be right and I think yagas feels confident that his prediction will be right but I think broadly my prediction is at orthogonal to y's prediction and we'll have to just wait and see okay I'm going to leave it there because I think we've had two very different perspectives and of course PR me in the mean while Raj may I ask Dr Bala if he would take up my offer can we go to a village Raj I would love to go with both of you to any Village in this country of his choice and you want to and and you want to ask people there whether they feel they are better off now than they were 5 years ago am I correct broadly that's the question you've been asking employment unemployment unemployment has unemployment has the employment situation got better country okay okay I I think Dr Bala please take up yogendra offer he's going he's traveling across the country I hope you will join him there is anecdotal evidence available out there which suggest that these are serious issues on the ground so I hope you will do that but I want to leave it there gentlemen I think we've given a sense to the viewers of where those who've been observing politics over the years look at this election I want to leave you with some takeaways I I've been traveling across several parts of this country I do believe that russan for the poor and mahila I repeat mahila voters could still be the bjp's winning ticket in north and Central India where remember they had a large uh vote share last time Maharashtra and Bengal I maintain Remain the key Battleground States if the BJP has to maintain what it did in 2019 it has to also maintain its hold in these two large states Maharashtra and Bengal remain key Battleground States having traveled into deep interior Bihar just a few days ago disillusionment is growing especially in rural areas but anger is limited ration in a way has limited the anger there is no major change from 2019 that I see in terms of seats but I'm not a cist but a more competitive election is there at the local level people are talking local narratives much more this time than they were in 2019 and it is intensely comparative in several local level constituencies Prime Minister Modi remains Neta number one I still saw him being hugely popular as I travel the opposition in particular is seen as not effective yet so a lot of people I met said you know government has not fulfilled ABC but were not able to see the opposition as a ready replacement I won't go into numbers but this is what I'm giving you as the big picture let's turn very quickly to give you an update on the big story breaking from Mumbai after a dust storm lashes the city this evening a Mumbai billboard collapsed in Gater the suburb of gater and the dead toll is mounting now eight people have been killed so far in the gater billboard tragedy those are the tragic scenes coming in from Mumbai after a dust storm lash the city The BMC now says 20 to 30 people are still trapped under the hoing which ironically last year had been declared the biggest hoing of its kind in the country search and rescue operations are underway there in Mumbai the big story that we will keep tracking this evening is what's happened the tragedy in Mumbai our thoughts there with the people who have been affected by that tragedy a dust storm where a hoing collapse has taken place at least eight people killed scores are still trapped inside we have to leave you there with those images thanks for watching stay well stay safe good night shatri J namaskar B

Channel: India Today

Views: 87,476

Keywords: phase 4 of lok sabha elections, phase 4 lok sabha election voting, lok sabha election 2024 phase 4, lok sabha phase 4 voting, lok sabha phase 4 polling, lok sabha phase 4 live updates, 2024 lok sabha election, lok sabha election 2024 news, lok sabha election phase 3 voting live, india today live, phase 4 polling live, election news live, polling live, mp voting live, andhra voting live, bihar voting live, telangana voting live, up voting live, jammu kashmir voting live

Id: xBtzp0j-fMo

Length: 51min 59sec (3119 seconds)

Published: Mon May 13 2024