NewsX Opinion Poll: The National Picture & State by State Predictions | India's Biggest Opinion Poll

hello and welcome to this special before it airs on TV digital edition of the who's winning 2024 opinion poll in partnership with d Dynamics here on newsx I'm rishab gulati we're getting you all the numbers of the predictions of who's winning the general elections this time around we're going to do them state by state and then we're going to have a look at the national picture starting off with Jammu and Kashmir of the five seats the BJP expected to take two primarily from jamu the National Conference three from the state so a split but the BJP racks up to remember their target is 270 plus then of course 400 plus which they claim two of them are coming from Jammu and Kashmir let's have a look at the next state as we track the northern region of ladak which is now remember its own entity as a union territory the BJP holds this seat the prediction is that they will retain this seat in the 2024 general election and the Congress and the India Alliance likely to lose out let's have a look at the next state as we track the northern region the national capital Delhi seven out of seven went to the BJP last time around this time the D Dynamics poll says six for the BJP one for the amadm party remember these two are in Alliance this time around 4x3 they are not competing against each other so one the arm admy party might be able to sneak in from Delhi which is his Bastion let's have a look at the next major state in North India can't get bigger than this uttar Pradesh 80 seats the largest population the largest number of people returned to the Lo SAA the BJP as a unitary entity has swept the state two times this time also the D Dynamics poll says 73 out of the 80 are going to be in the bjp's kitty directly the rld which is an alliance with the BJP expected to add a further two so the alliance takes uh 75 here the apad also which has been in Alliance with the NDA in the past is expected to take either one or two seats so 73 75 77 the samaj party just three the Congress zero and the bsp which seems to be missing an action this time also expected to get zero so a sweep is being predicted for the BJP in up once again a major state where they have to do well let's have a look at the next state in North India as we track this development in madhia Pradesh in the center it is a straightforward contest between the BJP and the Congress the BJP is already held on to the most number of sweet seats in madya Pradesh in 2019 and once again a near sweep is predicted for the BJP in madhia Pradesh at whose state level they've just regained power the Congress expected to get only one seat I don't know if this is going to be nakul or somebody else we will find out but that's what the poll prediction says in madhia Pradesh let's have a look at the next state as we track this region by region in chattis gar where the government has just flipped from the Congress to the BJP the BJP expected once again to near sweep the state with 10 out of the 11 seats going into their Kitty let's have a look at the next state before we get you a region wise an overall picture harana the BJP has held the state several times this time around the Congress might get about two seats so out of the 10 seats in total eight for the BJP two here for the Congress I will do a tabulation as we go to the next state at the very end so you get the overall National picture now utarak if you're living in utarak well five out of five is the prediction from the dynamic Dynamics poll as far as UT's Lo SAA vote is going to go let's have a look at the next date on our screens is Punjab where the BJP has traditionally not had a strong footing remember it is the congress party that was dominating politics currently it's the amadm party dominating politics in Punjab but have a look at the numbers here the Congress expected to get five seats the arm admy party another two the shiran kalal used to be an NDA Ally two the BJP 4 if they come together this is six if these people are in a sort of national picture currently they are not it's only a Delhi Centric picture that would be seven so Punjab where the BJP has not had a strong showing four seats which of those four seats will have a breakdown as we go across this length and breadth of India now let's have a look at the next state on our screens as we are tracking North India Himachal Pradesh four out of four sweep for the BJP is the prediction from this poll remember the Congress is in government in in this state we have see vikramaditya taking on people like Kang in their constituency the recent cross voting has happened in the Raj in the Raja polls but for the loksabha it seems to be as for this survey the BJP ahead let's have a look at the next state getting us a more picture as we run through heading into now the northeast of the country arunachal Pradesh there are only two suits Kiran riju the union minister is fighting one of them both the seats are expected to be falling into the BJP Kitty so a sweep in arunachal Pradesh once again let's let's move further into the Northeast into the state that has the most number of seats in the Northeast which is Assam nine seats predicted in the BJP Kitty two in the AGP one for the UPL the Congress might win one is this going to be cabore is it going to be Jor hard will gor gy have a chance and the aiudf lots of war of words happening between uh between badrudin AAL as well as him bisa one seat is predicted for them so the majority of the seats going towards the BJP I'm sure imant vishas Sharma will be hoping that all of them go in the BJ in the BJP Kitty but nine out of the 14 here in to that kitty let's have a look at the next state in Northeast India looking at Manipur has seen troubl times the Congress uh Chief began his Manipur to Mumbai yatra from that state in this regard the Congress is expected to win one of the two seats the npf which is the regional party expected to win the other let's move forward into mealia and nagaland mealia on your screens first the Congress and condran sagma NPP two seats one in Tura where his sister is contesting from one for the Congress one for the NP is the prediction from megalia let's move on as we go into mizoram uh the BJP Congress and the zpm single seat in the state and the regional party is expected to take that take that take that seat not the national parties in this case now as we finish off the Northeast as we hit the next State trying to get our perspective in from the Northeast and then into the east of India the ndpp nagaland being contested primarily between the Congress and the ndtp so zero for the Congress ndpp the regional party expected to take that seat as we wrap up now the northeast states let us go on to the next one into uh the after Sim into the east of India sikim again one seat again the skm the regional party expected to win that there are lots of permutations in combination The Who Ally with whom so this will come into effect in a pre- pole and of course in a PO pole sequence tripura both seats are uh which have of course the the state government the BJP has has been dominating for some time the BJP expected to win two out of two in tripura as well all right with that let's move on from the Northeast we've covered the Seven Sisters and head back into the west of India in Rajasthan where the BJP is expected to sweep Rajasthan once again remember the government state government Rajasthan has just changed but look at the figure for the Congress the prediction is zero it's the others who are probably going to sneak in one or two seats the D Dynamics poll says zero for the Congress 23 for the BJP let's move forward as we go into the West India into Gujarat the home home state for the prime minister of the of of the country and the leader of the B J party Narendra Modi 26 out of 26 for the btia Jan party same as last time same as the time before a clean sweep for Gujarat many people will say no surprises remember the am admy party is now become a player in the state which it wasn't earlier has eaten a vot share at the state level but at the Lo SAA level it's a straight out fight and it seems the Congress is likely to get zero here as per this poll prediction now in Goa once again just two seats in the state both in the BJP Qui pretty much in track with how the politics has has shaped up very complicated politics a lot of regional players in in in Goa as well that make the politics a lot more complex but the BJP is right now as per the poll prediction in the lead in Goa as well now as we go through the west of India let's head into the big state of before we head into the big state of Maharashtra d d andu and d nagar a the two seats both for the BJP one each in each of the two uh in each of the of the two territories over there now let's go look at as we Traverse the course of Western India lakshadweep it has been a congress Bastion for a long time the NCP which is the NCP SP of the sh of the sharat Paar league is likely to win that seat in in lak this sum around one single seat one single member of parliament the BJP has has not won that seat yet this time around doesn't look like that their bank account will open electoral account will open in lakad either now let's move on to to the next State uh and this is the big one in Maharashtra very tlous politics in Maharashtra over the past 5 years and this is where it ends up the BJP on its own 16 the Shiva uh as represented by uh shind with seven the NCP as represented by Ajit Paar one here the congress with eight the other part of the Shiva ubt 9 and the NCP as it used to be with charat Paar 5 so you're going to put these three together in some sort of an alliance and these three together in some sort of Alliance so you do 7 plus the 3 23 24 go this way 17 and 5 22 those get this way so Advantage NDA this is a troubling scenario of course if you are supporting the BJP some hope if you're supporting the opposition that this is a closer contest in Maharashtra than ideally the BJP would like let's have a look at the next big state as we track uh uh the eastern part of India now in Bear major again tumult in the politics the government has flipped three times in the past 5 years with this man as chief minister and have a look at this this is likely the scenario of the alliance here so 17 + 11 + 5 17 for the BJP 11 for nitish he'll be wanting this number very very acidly his political future depends on what this number becomes ljp hoping that every seat they contest they will win the h under the former Chief Jan Mai hopefully to get one seat the Congress is hoping to get two the rjd three and the others one so this part of the screen is looking a bit weak that part is looking stronger and this is the reason this mathematic adds up and why it was important at least nitish and the BJP felt for them to come together and chak paswan bringing up the rare in that Alliance in bhar so the majority of the seats going in that direction as well as per this poll prediction let's have a look now at the next state on our screens jarand BJP takes 12 this man currently facing a lot of Ed issues JMM takes one the Congress expected as per this poll prediction to take not in jarand with the BJP having a near sweep the others getting one so 12 out of 14 in jarand for the bar J party let's have a look at the next state as we Traverse now this part of the country odisha very interesting situation no formal alliance between these two but many people have argued an informal conversation has always been held where naen patnayak holds sway as he had has for decades at the state but the Bia jata party snaps a few during the loab election and this time to 14 and 7 Zer for the Congress and that total then uh ends up in advantage of the BJP this remember technically being a third party not involved in a direct alliance with either of the two let's have a look at further down as we now move in uh to the last major State of East India before we head to the South Bengal very interesting one split fight all right so technically there is no Alliance here in Bengal so 19 for the for Mamta one for Rahul Gandhi 22 for the BJP under Narendra Modi they are hoping at the very least to equal their tally of 2019 and maybe do a couple extra and knock off 22 crucial State this is going to be a Battleground state in the 2024 elections for sure so watch out for the numbers from Bengal this is the prediction from this poll let's move on to the next state as we now head uh into the uh into the Bay of Bengal in the Andaman Islands one single seat the BJP expected to take that as well now from the underand let's move on to the next state into the last region that we're covering is in Kerala in the South now very interesting have a look at this figure this is going to be opening opening of doors in Kerala what these two seats will be we don't yet know at this point of time but the poll prediction says that the BJP might get to seats in Kerala this time around the congress with 11 the ldf these are the primary two opponents that have been operating in Kerala since Independence the ldf and the UDF under the Congress 11 for the Congress remember the man himself Rahul Gandhi is hoping that he is one of the 11 from vard the UDF which is now an entity unto itself another three so if you put these together 14 four here they are not in an alliance they have been under the UPA but not currently not fighting together but the big ticket item for the BJP will be votee share and if they can get one maybe two seats from Kerala very interesting battle in some constituencies in tanam for example is Shashi harur versus Rajiv Chandra Shar in Tamil Nadu now going to polls in the first phase the BJP expected to win four this is going to be a big ticket item for all those who have said BJP Hindi only Hindi only it'll be a major achievement if they hit the four Mark the DMK the strongest party in the state right now at 22 they are in Alliance this time around so they've done seat sharing six for the Congress uh that will be good news for them this Alliance number is what matters for them at 28 the AIA DMK which is on its own right now reduced to three not a happy situation if you're either uh if you're either of the former Chief ministers uh of the aid DMK now currently contesting in this cycle let's have a look now at the picture that is emerging in Karnataka important state for the BJP remember in Karnataka the patriarch of the BJP BS yedu held sway there for a long period of time is no longer there his son is there very important the NDA has lost this state to the Congress very recently but at the Lo SAA different ball game they'll be hoping maximum number of seats but no doubt a Battleground State important state 22 the poll says for the BJP four for the Congress and the JDS rocks up with two no formal alliance this time around either uh now we'll have to see what alliance works out here potentially at some point of time uh in in terms of electoral mathemat itics and a postp scenario but if the BJP sweeps sweeps uh these seats become uh into the opposition Camp per se now youve had a look at the major States let's have a look at Andhra Pradesh now rounding up the the the southern states the BJP will be hoping to do slightly better than that but two is what the poll predicts the ysrcp will be disappointed if the figure is seven have a look at this this is the alliance that exists the BJP and the TDP and if chundra Babu Naidu is expected to get 14 he's back he's back from the Wilderness and it'll be a big ticket item if he gets 14 the JSP with a couple of seats so 2 + 14 is 16 and another 2 18 potentially for the NDA with the YC ysrcp falling behind with seven not happy news remember the state elections are yet another ball game for all you know it just might be Chandrababu Naidu returning as chief minister we will find out on the fourth of June now as we've had a tabulation of going through the states one by one let us put into persp perspective what is now going on in an overall picture what is the situation in the regions and what is the situation nationally putting the perspective together for us now ladies and gentlemen in the end 543 seats looking at at telengana quickly eight for the Congress just formed a government there they'll be happy with that that'll be a strong showing under rant RI leadership the BJP with five they'll be hoping to give the Congress a NE to neck battle the BRS used to be the TRS with three not in the best of political shape right now this man expected to retain his seat in Hyderabad so the aimim brings up the one he'll be hoping he can snatch one more to to bolster his numbers in the future luk SAA but this is how telengana is looking Advantage Congress but the BJP uh potentially a strong so showing so you're seeing the BJP on the board they have been on the board in the past in in the southern states but definitely emphatically on the board and have a look at the vote share in some of the other constituencies as well now ladies and gentlemen as we keep moving on to puducherry uh which is of course Union territory uh uh between anra and Tamil Nadu the BJP expected to win that L SAA seat this time as well now we've had a picture now let's put the tabulation together of how this works from North India in North India of the total 161 seats going here not including the others 139 for the BJP so North India sweep nobody I'm sure will be surprised 22 uh for the in Indie Alliance including the Congress zero of course for the Congress in up unhappy situation if it pans out to be true so is the NDA going to dominate North India's 161 seats the answer in this poll says yes now let's have a look at the next region as we head into the East and Northeast the northeast of India of the seats available maximum number of course being in Assam the NDA expected to Cobble together 19 four for the India Alliance the zpm and skm with one each bringing up uh the the flag for the regional parties but the NDA pretty much expected to do really well if not have two-thirds of the seats from the Northeast another region they're doing really really really well no surprises if we've been tracking them in the recent past now from the Northeast let us head on to the west of India and then the east of India the West First we've done a tabulation 104 seats in all the states 77 for the NDA 23 for the India Alliance and four for the others so the west of India Maharashtra Gujarat Gujarat of course a sweet but Maharashtra things are a little bit more difficult the NDA still gets 2/3 of the seats from the west of India as well now from the West let us head to the east of India where the NDA of a total of 118 seats expected to get 81 India alliance with eight the Buu Jad coming up with nine and the big chunk is the TMC going to be one of the largest parties once again if they indeed end up with around that 1920 seat Mark now south of India uh again a region now let's see how this pans out this includes of course Karnataka Kerala uh Tamil Nadu puducheri Andra and telengana look at this south of India has become neck to neck potentially between the NDA of course this is not just the BJP this would include people like Chandra Babu nidu bolstering the numbers but this is also not just the Congress this is the India Alliance 5458 the ysrcp not in Alliance with anyone with seven and a few others rounding up the total now let's have a look at the tabulation of the big ticket item that actually matters ladies and gentlemen the target for the bhia Jan party for the alliance they themselves say is 400 in the tabulation we've just done as for the D Dynamics poll 383 is where the NDA is expected to stand of which the BJP alone at 320 325 an improvement on last time the alliance making a huge Improvement the India Alliance falling even further behind and the others this includes a lot of the regional parties bringing up 51 so this survey with a halfway mark at 272 is telling you that the BJP will have 60 plus Surplus seats to form a government on their own along with their allies they are going to be near that 400 Mark a lot of of course water needs to go under the bridge but this is where things stand as we speak

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Id: RP5LjFoZSuY

Length: 20min 30sec (1230 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 15 2024