MH370: Was Air Traffic Control deliberately misled?

good evening everybody welcome to the Royal Aeronautical Society event at this moment I'll hand over to Eamon Brennan there sitting to my right women good evening everybody first of all you're very welcome to Euro control it's a pleasure to host the Royal Aeronautical Society here for what is a very interesting topic right when I saw the topic I said oh and this is what I need to know about I was explaining to to Nicholas there a moment ago that I I know a little about this as there one of my very good friends Angus Houston was the guy from the Australian government who was given the task of carrying out the search and rescue which turned out to be a fruitless task over many many times but he was organizing search arcs and daily flights and all of these sorts of really interesting you're all very welcome here I'm glad that you can use the facility you're always welcome and I just hope that you know you enjoyed as much as I'm looking forward to so I'm not going to waste any more of your time off you go thank you so we're just coming back to the branch just really welcoming all of you thanking you for attending this this event and we represent the Brussels branch of the Royal Aeronautical Society where what are we what are we coming to talk about tonight I mean you've heard the title mh370 what happened to it we all like a good mystery don't we seems there's quite a few people here that do a bit of conspiracy theory a lot of facts some gaps does anybody know what really happened well I think we'll learn a lot more tonight speakers tonight from the Capitao team with three main speakers here tonight so without any more ado I will ask them to begin their presentation tonight and thank them very much for what I'm sure will be a very interesting presentation so ladies and gentlemen good evening the this is the capsule team and we are grateful to the Iowa tech society birther branch for this invitation many thanks as well for those people who organized this this event as far as I'm concerned to be back in this room the Sherpa room brings a lot of memories of important event of you eighties in Europe the most striking was when Eve lumber at the time was the DG of your control when is very same room convinced the Member State to make the traffic collision avoidance system the earthbound system the teeka's mandatory for the old of Europe many of you may be aware that the 27th June 9 2019 this year I will have to read the Swiss Federal Supreme Court confirmed the decision to covent the sky guide air traffic controller for I quote negligent disruption of public transportation safety was not a stake because the in ATC the defense for the safety is made by a succession of layers the controller been an important one a one wink in the energy and the last defense is the traffic collision avoidance I spoke about the this decision a tricky trigger trigger a lot of reaction especially about the social the so-called juice culture in our system the controllers are encouraged to declare any event for the benefit of the system so the question is whether the judgment could jeopardize this process but to my surprise it did not came to anybody anybody's mind to name the culprit because the culprit are not going to get into the details of the event but the culprit is the very inefficient air-ground communication in ATC we are so used to I remember 20 years ago a friend of mine Vishal Anand was the creator of the French mobile company SFA once visited the the experiment center in Brittany and he was baffled and replayed a repeat he was baffled to see that there is no edification of the speaker what's the connection between with the m MH 370 at first or maybe later on for the disappearance of the mh370 the manager and the Vietnamese controller had been blame and even the the digit see the director-general of civil aviation of Malaysia decide to resign because he thought that the controller made a mistake sonic is going to demonstrate to you that the trajectory as far as we know and there is a lot of information available despite man people may think of the mh370 which took advantage of all the shortcomings of the civilian and military air traffic control positive process and system not only in Malaysia but all over the world if as a result of that we believe that the trajectory has been piloted this is not an accident it cannot be an accident when when you look at the trajectory that sonic is going to to present to you why not consider that the aircraft we do no moon once actually piloting the aircraft was piloted and until the very end and then our Geary's is going to demonstrate and is going to first time that he's going to present his work that very likely at the very end the very on is a ditching from this two element and there are many element that we have no time today to explain we come up with an alternate hood from the one which has been computed by the Australian Transport Safety Board and the trajectory computed by the air traffic D the Australian Transport Safety Board led to three very expensive non successful searches so us we think that eventually the rack will be discovered near Christmas Island is only six three thousand meters a piece of cake now is to find it but in the meantime I believe that the disciplines of the mh370 should be a school case to advocate for safe and secure our ground data link ATC has been looking for for many years and I will come back to this issue during the the conclusion and now I will give the floor to Jean Ignacio and I will have to warn the audience with the work that we gasp a retraction with the support of Michele did jean-luc you could speak for three or twelve so today the challenge is going to do it in 20 minutes so you better fasten your seat belt now the question is was ATC deliberately misled to look at this question we'll have to do some analysis and I will present you what we think could bring some elements to answer this question later later on so first I would recall what happened that day and what happened that day is this [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] okay now you know as much as the control the air traffic control system knew at that time the aircraft was transfer and asked to contact oshimen forest man it's manual transfer now why we think this has been deliberately and well chosen because the complexity of the airspace in that region you see Malaysia if I do that if you see Malaysia who has one control region here and here Singapore in between with this Chinese corridor but also some specific zone where the traffic is delegated to avoid overload from the controller so instead of having three three controllers to talk to he has it has only to talk to two so this area is really of interest for us because that's where the aircraft passed by now if we look carefully the flight plan of the aircraft was going to begin so as we just saw the aircraft arrived to eageriy the transfer point but here it's kind of a you know a zone where the controller used to be let's say we're not used to few years ago because the the delegation happened only recently so in its mind in peacetime at one o'clock in in the in the evening or in the morning it's quite the aircraft was out of his mind so suddenly it disappeared so there the air traffic controller in his mine in Kuala Lumpur for that forgot about the aircraft it was busy with four aircraft in the southeast 200 nautical miles southeast of this point so he said he was not looking at the screen at that area the oshimen guy said after 17 minutes egg Kuala Lumpur where is your aircraft and the discovered actually he never called oshimen and where was it so they requested some information from the airline operation center who said who gave them an inner-ear aeneas information based on an old system on the projection with a false prediction and the airline said it's still in the China Sea so for them the idea was to say for us let not the idea but the trigger was four hours later to say let's start the sauce and rescue we're on the continuation of the flight plan because the that the only information they had at that time and because the aircraft never declared any emergency which is an important point of the system the system reacts only if the aircraft is saying I mean in emergency here no declaration so for them they have to look in a flight plan so what at that stage what was known the flight plan from callaloo go to Beijing it followed the clearance of the ATC during the 42 first minute at the vertical until the vertical of the transfer point then it disappeared from this secondary radar spot and the ad SB data Malaysian Vietnam in Thailand so the aircraft and then so it disappearing but they didn't pay attention because Malaysia was forgetting the flight it was transferred for for him Vietnam and Thailand was not in control so they had been no reason to worry about and more out of it no emergency was declared so normal flight and so it was like normal like losing some communication or having some just communication problem now later on what we we we got is Malaysian radar information it took some time for them to filter extract the correct data and we'll see why in a moment we got the Inmarsat data which is a famous link with the satellite and the telecom but seven days later because this signal needs to be fetched out of their database because these signals are just for monitoring how good is the network and how good it works but not for operational issues and when you're almost one year and a half later some Debbie debris where we where we covered now about the military radar data you will see that actually the large red line here is the initial 42 minutes of the flight a near that system as well identified here the mas 370 but then the aircraft came back so the system could not know that is a craft of these segments here were actually the aircraft so it took some days to understand visually to analyze that actually that's the past back and the way back and you see that the system on that there that minute understood this segment as a different aircraft P 1778 and then with a number because he didn't know what was this echoes the pings coming back he had no no way to say it's Malaysian turning turn turning back on top of that we've got recently thanks to the independent group which is a group active in in the world we've made secession from the Australian Safety Board we've got the aid radar data from the two Airport the the approach data but capture via the flight at Kota Bharu and at Penang and this again showed that the aircraft came back and had some erratic movement and we'll we'll have a look a little bit later later now what are the key location of the known trajectory so for sure this trajectory here is known now what is derived from this data is the yellow trajectory that you see here which is interesting because it's inside the last radar from Malaysia that could capture the the the aircraft and you see the D aircraft kept the the care or had a care to stay within Malaysian control area the flight information region so now what happened probably around this time the electronic the electric power was cut off after the transponder was probably shut off first so ideas data disappear secondary radar echo and information disappeared and somehow somewhere here the electronic electric power was cut off it means the five generators the two main principle in each engine the two backups and the auxiliary power system at the rear of the aircraft so what does it mean for the aircraft to fly on the only possible source of power which is the RAM which is the windmill deployed because there is no electricity and it's giving the minimum minimum minimum of power less necessary to fly the aircraft as an example recently on the 20 20th of December last year a Latin coming from Sao Paulo to London got a power outage completely because of the management of electricity and it flew back to forgot the name of the city 19 litical miles north of it on the raft on the right so it's possible and nobody was injured and he could land globally safely so we think at that stage that the the pilot becomes us manual pilot no no a famous note omission basically the guy was manually piloting their craft to do a huge sharp u-turn and to fly nicely or let's say cleverly on the fear boundary between Bank Bangkok fear the talent is and the Malaysian letting each controller military because the civilian could not see it anymore the military controllers to say okay this fight I don't know it's the Malaysian or controllers controls it no no this flight is from Thailand so the Malaysian is saying it it's a Thailand is aircraft so that I cleverly did that and followed this path until panel but in between we know that no aqus message that was planned to be sent by the aircraft to the ground on the engine status aircraft that it did not occur at 17 30 37 it means that between the last a cars which was sent approximatively here and here a cars did not work and so that's why we talk about electrical electrical power and we'll a little bit come back later on so during this trajectory a little bit erratic climb being accelerating which means there is no failure if there was a failure that they would have said contingency iced I start to fix the problem and then if I count island here nothing so the aircraft was flying normally strangely speaking on its way turning at Penang there are probably a and surprising event the mobile phone of the first officer hooked to a ground station of a mobile network so he just hooked nothing in no no it's a mess exchange no communication just saying Here I am okay it's you okay bye-bye and later on at palapa hawk it's important because here the of Elmen operation center sent Anika's message message directly to the printer of the cockpit and this message was not delivered and a fail indication error came back to the operational center so we know here at 1603 that actually our cos were definitely not working and then when it reached the end of exit of a radar coverage all surprise electricity comes back and there is a hook to the satellite but the hook is very interesting because it's a proper connection with a proper protocol connection meaning I am this SATCOM I would like it means that because the lock off was proper here the lagoon was proper here no logoff has been identified here it means that it has been a hub logoff which means no power so electricity was cut off ok so that's why we we derive the this so why because in the cockpit or in the electronic Bay there is no way to disconnect individually this box which is the SATCOM exchanging via the antenna to the Inmarsat satellite when you put back the electricity by necessity this comes alive again you can do it if you need to get back some functions on the cockpit you need to have that basically powered on again which is something they obviously didn't know so sorry so then again the flight could be more automatically and navigating with the L of enough capabilities so talking quickly about the radar coverage as I said it stayed in Malaysian coverage the talent is radars in the aircraft but they didn't they didn't notice they seen it but that it's not under the responsibility we don't know whether the Indian at Bali Kaba seen something but there is a radar it's unknown whether it was working on at that night and surprisingly there is a bunch of video days and radar we should have seen it but no information from them now we had to make hypothesis from this time because at that time no more radar no more information except in Mossad so our hypothesis to derive a trajectories people where in comment from the start to the end there is no reason that after 1 hour and half of flight suddenly everybody is dead like everybody is thinking because they today the analysis arm on same safe as sorry stable altitude stable speed and constant speed and constant heading which means nobody is piloting and we dispute these arguments so that's why we think people are piloting the aircraft followed the rule of air space and also used as much as possible the automation of the aircraft and try to avoid them as much as possible the radar coverage as I said no failure on the aircraft and only a temporary power switch off we think the aircraft wanted to land safely somewhere on that adequate run length because why two pilots such an aircraft such a long time and also that the most appropriate flight mode were used on board the aircraft to to go the further as possible and the aircraft was probably on the minimum safe distance journey meaning to reach the the island as as fast as possible and at the end and Argyris will present that that an attempted ditching and a possible final crash will will have taken place but the ditching first so avoiding radar we think that here the aircraft went around there the the Indonesian civilian secondary radar which is supposed to have a transponder response but remember the transponder has been switched off surprisingly the Indonesian never gave any information some people have said that because they have a fuel powered electricity system for powering the radar these were switched off that night it seemed difficult to say so after passing under the radar coverage then the flight went and each time it changed past or past the fear boundary it changed some characteristics of the flight so you see for example here it's a crosses of fear boundary change it turned here it's changing his direction and his speed again here again here and at the end it passing between Koko's and christmas where there is here at low level because here there is the australian detection system which is not exactly radar but to finally arrive and try to land on christmas following the normal route and then it crashed now of course this trajectory that we have identified should fit with the Inmarsat so-called pink which is the distance which is the distance given to the satellite now if you look we have done some inquiry this is the record of the traffic at that time so you see you see here the Malaysian and then you will see disappear that's why it becoming black and you will see here - of aircraft showing up of interest here the Emirates which actually followed without noticing it because the attack RAF is in black no light not nothing manually manually piloted following by 2017 220 no tickle miles and here an aircraft would departed from Chennai 30 minutes later and to avoid that we believe that he did a contingency 15 it political minds on the right then descent to pass underneath this route okay underneath that one above this one underneath that one right [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] you so what we think is that the system has some Swiss cheese holes as people of working in safety in ATM has the habit to say and they avoid that the holes are aligned provoking an accident and here we think that these holes have been used to be to be made aligned to make the aircraft disappeared first no emergency was reported and people knew that if the aircraft is not declaring himself in danger and difficulty not people of know the deity she has no reason to to worry so the latency in the reaction the disappearance could have been seen as a usual temporary problem and come as it exists and probably today one of two across in the world have a transponder a consistent failing the lack of reaction of the civilian and military to see when you look at the report the controller was saying when I was busy on the right southeast with four aircraft I didn't see that something was coming back especially without a label and it and the military people ATC said well we've seen that but we didn't think it was it was threatening Malaysia so we didn't react and as I said the police thought it was telling these aircraft the transfer between fears is totally manually depends on the aircraft again ATC is completely tied up with the fact that the aircraft complies or not if the aircraft doesn't comply the 18 account DTC can't do much other at that stage and then the civilians and comm system and processes are are outdated we have seen that with the radar impossible to get information directly from the radar and the come on VHS and the difficult to communicate and to wait via crafts to declare itself and finally the fact that the AOC was predicting the flight saying during 30 minutes yes the flight is on the China Sea where it was not so we think that ATC as being deliberately misled now coming back to the debris and we'll finish on that you know that later on few degrees have been recovered so here is a schematic of the aircraft but only I would draw your attention you will probably have the slides later on only three have been officially recognized and identified of part of the aircraft the right flap on the right are the right outboard flap and the left our bot flap the others are highly almost softened but not sure only three so talking about this we concentrated a study on the drift of one of the element the flap room because it was a first one enlarged piece which has been recovered in the rhenium so we you have the schematic in its place it's a piece which is as a flap but shortly because of the flux of the the flow of our of the of the air engine so this has been recovered and you see here very interesting element barnacles which are shells recovered after the time he passed to the in in the sea this led to some studies on the drift and people were saying okay we know where it landed in little Renault and all the study so far have been backwards saying from that can we derive a place around the sock which is the last arc the last ping of Inmarsat and this led to unsuccessful searches so taking care of all the material event we did a study so just let me Allah sorry well we did a study starting from the point that we knew which is where we thought the aircraft crashed and we did a forward projection modernizing the the drift of the flood prone bit because of the of the water currents and but also on the on the wind and because of that we confirmed that our trajectory is as process plausible and the others and this study is as good or as bad as the other it cannot be a discriminating factor last element on that for the barnacles which is interesting is that these barnacles have grew up in warm waters and if you have seen in our in the picture the trajectory of the drift stayed in the warm water and I will stay there because actually our jerries is looking at the flood prone in a different way I guess you've seen and that's arisen why for us it's a unique opportunity to make this presentation that what is unique in our work is on knowledge of ATC organization structure and so on and I think this is unique as far as we know there is no other study we has used this knowledge of ATC that's the first point and now before giving the floor to our giri's what is going to present to you is the first time is present in this work and once again is going to be in 15 minutes but it's a very top of the iceberg of a lot of modeling simulation and knowledge allegories so it's it's as I said a very short summary and the wealth of modeling simulation which is behind this presentation this was extensively analyzed from the French authorities the delegations in Rotterdam are more and they produce reports to the excellent where they have done and in the air they speculate that what is missing the I don't know the pointer doesn't show but maybe a little bit the green part that you see there which is missing from the flaperon it was probably broken off because of ditching because of interaction with water but they also say that this is the best suggestion they can do from the engineering judgment behind the findings but they could not produce any analysis or simulation to support this and this is where we came because we take in the reports and study them and get in information from a digital seven seven seven model that we have we managed to create a model of the flaperon out of the CAD data and then proceed to some basic analysis here is the basic parts of what we did first of all we created a model with the finite element method standard for structural analysis for the flaperon and then we used the very advanced innovative particle method the smooth particle hydrodynamics method which is adopted for splash and that is the way to model the seawater and then we went to study controlled ditching scenarios where the flaperon is scoped in the water in two basic ways rigid body mode and if an elastic mode rigid body so that we can get the maximum that we could get force out of the water to see if it is high enough to provoke potentially trouble and then elastic mode to see if this trouble that it might provoke can lead into fractional so here you have some animations where you can see the flaperon in scoopin mode in the distant mode you can see the water how it is pushed out the particles very advanced type simulation technology and if we take the pressures that are applied in this rigid model and translate them into bending moments and shear forces around the area where the part was broken off the trailing edge of the flaperon then we will see that if it was to satisfy equilibrium it will it will need huge internal stresses which no material can support so the water was impossible to give under ditching enough forces so that the the attributes of thickness and dimensions of the flaperon could not possibly support under a rigid mode so it's going to deflect a lot and deform so to see the now the deformations actually that could have been provoked in this scenario we took from the report lot of information with the materials that were actually quoted and for example the composite fabrics that make the skin with the number of plies they are given inside the honeycomb that is inside for differential bending the metal that makes the attachments the monocoque that makes the leading edge and the ribs and spars all that we put them into the model here is to give you a detail in the area that interests us the area where the trailing edge is missing you will see that there was localization around Apsara that is before the trailing edge and here is a detail of the thickness of the skin where you have the the upper and lower fabrics comb fabric composite layers and honeycomb in between this is not a good magnification but just to show you that we followed exactly the report on how many plies and what thicknesses and from the code we could have the material properties so we set up models and here what we see if we do now the elastic calculation the addition we see that indeed we have localization around the spa and the trailing edge can break off and to be sure of course I over and over condense now many many calculations were done and the models were changed the model was refined the properties were made as sophisticated as possible and we always get the same result which is a localization and a fracture in the lower surface which immediately sparse on the top surface around the spa and then the trailing edge eventually would break off so what we see is that indeed the part that is missing is the report speculated we see through simulation that it is possible to actually be broken off from ditching and more than that you can see here in the picture screws fasteners and we know fasteners are stress concentrators so indeed it is very possible that a fracture could have localized around the the fasteners continuing the lower edge and then turn into bending and break off completely but there is another also alternative that was in the report where it says that we believe it was ditching but if it was if it wasn't ditching if it was broken off when the aircraft was flying then you would have fallen because of the position of the center of gravity and the aerodynamic properties with a fallen head on and you would have had excessive damage in the leading edge again that was given in one line as that is probably very improbable that it happened so we thought to look into that as well so we took the last information where the plane actually vanished five thousand feet and let the flaperon go in a monotonic path with the terminal speed on the water of about a hundred thirty seven kilometers an hour and this is what we get to the same model we get it splashing in the water and you see damage in the leading edge just like the way they report speculated and you can see here the comparison this is what they discover the this is the debris that was recovered in the in the Rio and this is the damage we see so he looks unlikely at least with such a scenario to be freefall but more a ditching so we could say for conclusions that the two scenarios that appear in the report the freefall leading-edge damage due to water surface to water surface heat and the damage is incompatible with what was recovered because there we don't really see damage we see at most to lead to cracks but not the distraction of the leading edge well move aircraft ditching we have the trailing edge fail failure which does not appear when you do the freefall now everything is intact except the leading edge when who ditchin is the trainers that is chopped off spectacularly every time so this is more realistic but having said that now okay the trailing edge can fail in ditching but this is the flaperon on its own the flapper is on the aircraft so how did the water get to the flapper on so this is where we are looking also another for an on type of analysis like looking the complete ditching scenario with the aircraft and there are many deeds in scenarios you can see the controlled one that we we mostly speculate but there could be another one where if the wing touches you can see you have large turns and there is many other scenarios as well that can appear that's why for the current and future directions we are looking to the most plausible scenarios knowing that the sea was not absolutely calm there was we have information on the ways that we can put so this is for let's say we have to have a rigid model that represents properly the scenarios that are most likely for ditching but many scenarios of course will lead in the break of the aircraft and there is a huge challenge to free to be able to simulate the same thing with the officiant simple breakable model so that we can have a much more realistic situation and more than that even if we have the scenario where the water actually comes to large quantities to the to the to the flaperon to create the failure that we see we know the flap around came off the aircraft so what is it what what is the is the is the ditching enough to break off completely the flaperon from the aircraft or there could be some other also extra event and for that we plan to analyze the attachments which which we know very well from the report how they look after failure we have in the company who are work for enough information to analyze and find the wood loads could break a structure in a particular way and that could be very interesting because we can compare after with the forces we get from hydrodynamic or for impact maybe as you can see there the engines came off or whatever so we are very excited with all this then you've seen something which has that this work has done has not been done on anybody else this kind of simulation so where are we now the as I said and sonic said the Australian Transport Safety Board was in charge of the search of the of the break they came up with the trajectory going to the South with a non piloted aircraft saying as level 300 and at the very end with the lack of fuel then the a craft went on on the into the water us we have a more plausible trajectory we are the aircraft trying to avoid the the minute the the primary rudder from Indonesia went around Indonesia and the variant was a display that's this low level and what our gear is is trying to demonstrate that's a ditching this is not possible from the flat home that the flat home has been broken from very high otherwise it won't be this way so that's the reason why we think that we are plausible trajectory and hopefully one day would take into consideration this trajectory to trying to find a wreck but more than that as a result of whether these disciplines could happen again and after the disappearance the international civilian organization has murdered the so-called global analytical distress and safety system and the company named Ariane has put on the satellite from iridium a new generation of satellite a system which is called it is be we because in ATC we like acronyms that nobody understand which means that the aircraft is sending its information broadcasting this information and Ariane is pretending that the disciplines of the mh370 will never happen again this is not correct because in any case if in purpose or by error the pilot is cutting the so-called transponder the aircraft will disappear the another issue the so-called EDS be this basket is that something in ten ten years ago this was not so concerned that now is a real concern this system is very fragile again cyberattacks so varied opted that this system could be the unique means of navigation I'm not going to tell you the old story from the the the IQ concert in the seventies of the saga of the datalink I will name only two when in names in the FAA this very ambitious master plan it was ten billions for ten years in 1981 the goal was to have a full tightening for 1995 the predecessor of scissor which has named season in fact the first name was deployed and it was the idea of univille berry to deploy the datalink nowadays both nexium in state and Caesar I'm looking the are still fostering this this development and I think for those who read the the report of the Wiseman group to implement the go digital open sky with this new idea of ATM that service provider the data link the cornerstone whether is possible to speed up have the proposal why not try to use this new system the satellite internet called the Starling or one web then I the American system but why not like the GPS in the past and maybe one day Europe could develop his own satellite based internet system why not dream of very ambitious Europe you we think as we said that the a curve has been piloted we don't know whether this is the captain the captain with the the first officer and by the way since you have been interviewed by Rashad quest he wrote one of the best book on this and is and by I don't chance he flew two weeks before we manage an airline at the time of the second second officer was on his first and last flight before so and whether there was somebody else in the cockpit we don't know the the sonic said that the it has intend to do the kind of flying with only the RAM means that you are you have to be a seasoned pilot or even more so this is this has been planned so we don't know the answer question we have three hypotheses the first one is the pilot with the co-pilot we don't know second one is external people piloting the aircraft or external people threatening the pilot so it's probably now what we will never know probably what what happened if it's the pilot there's different scenarios for example it takes the care that the guys is going to the toilets the copilot and then like the German for example or as an instructor it could say to the guys because the guys is new it's its first flight as a co-pilot to say okay do something fetch something and and unlock the door or the same time you have to know that it's if third parties people inside the electronic Bay switching off the power opens the door of the lock well so it's it's it's a way to get in but we don't know question somebody of you are going to ask the question how in the cockpit there were so full fledge pilots why they did not succeed if this is our scenario why they did not succeed to get to Christmas Island why these people have so experienced people have not been able to pump it correctly the the the fuel and and this is where despite all the work that sleep and Jonah dad made with models the only company would read the answer if boy was willing to make this kind of simulation but so far we try to get in touch with Boeing that you can imagine the reaction of Boeing that so for the time being from the this triple7 be the question so so there are many many questions that show do you have other question that you are going to ask is that we don't know at the answer your question was also on the passengers we don't know we don't know that's a reason why maybe I best in some one day we find a break we maybe have only part of the questions because as you know the voice recorder was going to be only for the last two hours so so the so maybe the other you I have been in talk with in in touch with the 7-7 triple 7 pilot and the guy said that actually having only the rat you can fly with basic instruments so either you enter geographical data in the in the navigation system which is minimalist so you enter points waypoints either you do it manually by the war you work at the tension way and actually you you if you look at the trajectory it passed over kata Bari just five nautical miles north of Kota Bharu Northwest and five nautical miles south west of Penang and that could indicate that it did a radial to Kota Bharu a radial to Penang and then a radial out from Penang that could be all Waypoint saying I know roughly the drawer offical coordinates of the points I enter that into the database and ask the system to indicate me indicate him on the navigable navigational display the line to follow which explained why the radar data where let's say uncertain to certain extent Oh at night which was clear sky they were in dark but other aircraft under light so somebody said in the way they were playing Russian roulette they took the risk at night to avoid this by seeing the other aircraft and as sonic shot to have this discontinuance II - - so these people they this was well planned they were smart and bald you in our trajectory the distance is exactly the same between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing and Kuala Lumpur to Christmas Island but the question the question is the fuel consumption at the level at a very low level which is very difficult to to compute but in answer to your question the distance is exactly the same if I made some precision close to some nautical miles for the fuel we did and we used a model placed given in the public on the internet by the independent group which is the best one we could have and interestingly is after identify the trajectory and we recomputed the fuel because we did these simulations yeah analysis and we did the fuel computation and we found zero or close to the error zero at the seven arc so actually yes the trajectory is showing that the fuel was exhausted at that time the seven arc is this famous intercept arcs and the seven is the last one way you you're correct actually if you read the report the the manifest of the aircraft is saying the right engine is consuming 1.5 tons per hour of flight which is ridiculous no no no aircraft will fly with such a problem so actually we did some computation based on the client being of the aircraft and the level of when it we had the accounts data and we estimated that actually the consumption is between 100 and 300 kilo per hour and we took 150 and 50 because it above the normal above the normal and we took this value to compute as did the the other group to evaluate but yes the right engine was consuming more if you did as we did the simulation with normal simulators you could reach Christmas Island as a piece of cake with these simulators because they are very optimistic and usually turn turn and health was in excess but doing with the computation a turn was missing actually this issue of the of the of the engine and a consumption in the evolution in in the past year there's been a lot of progress in engines because they are not they want engines were consuming less and less for different reason so the engines are more and more sophisticated maybe there is more electronics in the in the engine than in the rest of the and what's important for the anions is to downlink information from the engine so in the in the in the case of the mh370 there was very little information going down with the own need the fuel consumption but nowadays the annoyance that's very important for them to downlink information while the aircraft is still in the air sometime 1 100 miles from from the airport to downlink information for the maintenance so I think this is an important issue for for the future of system once again the the link between the way on the ground but the the also what's interesting as I said there is a lot of information on the report people are saying the official report from the from the Malaysian investigating team and for example this this point of the one engine consuming more than the other is written there that there are very people who actually use it as far as we know so as usual we find think when you are looking after you be aware that when they probably put the elect the electricity back was to navigate properly but not to be seen from the others so the tea cast the transponder was not working well switched switched on you had no time to present you the video with the stuff actually what we think is when the aircraft did the contingency it started actually descent and the FMS mode entered into the economic descent 240 knots thus it kept the is constant the setpoint constant at 240 which means that the while descending this constant speed is not actually for everybody is not constant speed it's an indicator but as the aircraft is descending the speed is getting lower right and it's not 240 so it's descending and then it it has basically three decent three segments one which is during 20 minutes to avoid the two routes I showed you you know at the end you see the two routes which which show that the probability to intercept intercept a ping with the correct beat btob fo is high and then twice it has to go down to have a vertical rock or rod adapted to the to the in Mossad and actually that's how we deducted compared to the others what we did we had the compass and each time we said what is the aircraft doing and reading the in master data we said bomb at that point in time it should descent at that speed and we didn't touch the speed with just say economic descent until a Melbourne fear and then he stared at level at five thousand feet or Proxima TV and switched to the long cruise mode which makes the the speed slightly increasing because the weight of the aircraft is getting lighter as engineers we had no other choice that to believe the data compare all the conspiracy theory would say as you know saying that in Mossad data have been created for manipulated so us we believe in immersive data and for example the astron report which has published at the end of the of the year is a piece of it's really piece of the system and when people are complaining why the two so long but because it's it was difficult this is the first time for your information this this information from the Dean Mossad a kind of technical information like in your mobile phone sometimes we are pink because they are trying to look at where you are so in in Mossad the system support the M this is something which is necessary this is not something which has been invented for mh370 but after the the the reopen in Mossad they said why not record this information before that you know better than I do and so it was the first time that this information which is now recorded he's been used so it's it's it's an I think for Inmarsat I think it has been a very interesting the point for us and I can't stand why Mossad no longer want to speak because they have been accused but once again we would we we will very like to welcome if we could have contact with in Mossad because us we are not criticizing at all in Mossad so if we have an opportunity thank to you too - you see what I mean what is interesting is that the first report Rushton from in Mossad was giving an example of a trajectory that would fit the beautiful video data you the Ashton pre-session pepper this direct flight is an example and even it's even written there are thousand of other trash get very possible but us what we are adding is all knowledge of Earth so so the trajectory is one of the many possible trajectory which had fit astral computation but what we are adding to that is all knowledge as soon as I did of the traffic switcher but you're right the deck and there are other studies on statistic and that but what is surprising for us this is only a one apologies this trajectory there has been three very expensive non successful search I think any kind of scientific process if you come with the result which is wrong you can you make challenge the hypothesis and this is one many thing we don't understand why they did not challenge the apotheosis on the first place you if you go to the website capsule Maps website you will see that for example last year we made the same conference in Paris thanks to the to the Paris branch of the Ohio netic Society we we even been interviewed by people but the the conspiracy theories are by far more interesting for for media's and journalists that's one point and that's and so far we have not been able to get full so today as I said today is an opportunity because in the room there are enough people can understand the air traffic control dimension which is something specific to to our study the work that are there is as shown and there will be more so on us is going to work more and you cannot prevent them the work they will keep working they were still refining the materials and if they find people who can help them with with different models because to to to refine and maybe one day to convince because the the CEO of ocean infinity of in infinity is the the CEO is Oliver Plunkett he has some success because he's been able to find the the the Argentine submarine the the French team are in La Mina and he has promised the next of kin to come back so and I think ocean Infiniti is making now a lot of money because of his success he has contract with the US Navy so maybe he has some money put aside and hopefully during the the summer in Australia that is to say beginning of next year he may go back to and he said in an interview that they are going to examine all hypotheses of theories and we've been in contact with them we send them all the information and so far we failed to Commons unless if we had 100 millions of dollars - - with the boat we can all see if they build in the room as 100 mana worth if we can are you both and get there but that's that's one additional point we are aware that the judge in Paris in charge of the investigation about the disappearance of image 370 at the request of mr. waternoose we know that the judge is aware of our work it's all we can say for the time being but it's always a pleasure here so I'm here in my role as the chairman of the the process branch of the Royal and nautical Society and it's always a real pleasure to see so much passion coming together also here in this house of collaboration so that the three things or three groups I'd like to thank first of all the three gentleman who come to present support us so more it's very wonderful work whereas not only a passion for aviation not kept them going and really digging into every detail liquid fine but I think also passion for Humanity trying to find out what happened to those folks and particularly the ones I think in the back who weren't aware of anything and had probably to go through very bad things so thank you all for this there's another group of course I'd like to thank which is now here in representation by the director-general Amon brother thanks for again for your control hosting us here as at the society the brush's branch of it for all of these events it's a it's a true pleasure I must say but it also shows that the house here your control is literally hours of collaboration wanting to really inspire you know further thinking of what we could do in the next decades with aviation from what we've learned from the past so thanks again Brennan a meant for personal and of course nothing is possible with it with it not being a 3-fold so thank also for everybody who's available here today because also you showed that after hard working days you spend time as well to come down here and try and listen in thank you so much

Channel: Royal Aeronautical Society

Views: 571,224

Keywords: MH370, Air Traffic Control, ATC, CAPTIO

Id: Qk1CxO9XGyQ

Length: 71min 43sec (4303 seconds)

Published: Mon Nov 11 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/pigdead]

Cant say I agree with their main conclusion (Christmas Island destination), but interesting around 35 minutes in they do some analysis of flaperon damage which they claim is more consistent with plane ditching rather than uncontrolled crashing.

[u/sloppyrock]

There's a lot of smart people out there with their theories. Made more difficult because we all have make assertions with so little information. Sooner or later, some of them will be proven correct. Lucky them.

I think /u/pigdead and /u/sk999 probably have it right in debunking the OP theory.

Diverting to Christmas or The Cocos Islands makes no sense. No way would he have received asylum and where is the evidence of negotiation?

I have no idea whether it was an active pilot at the end or not or even if he was alive after the final turn. A long serving skipper I can understand still wanting full control but in the final stages of life, having made this momentous decision, who knows what state of mind he was in. He may well have been getting hammered in the galley.

And all this surmises the captain actually did it , which of course is a well supported theory, but not conclusively proven.

I'm not a fan of the controlled ditch, although I was initially when only the flaperon had been found. It sure looks like ditch damage in isolation.

As I and others have said, the flaperon damage can be explained in a few ways, but all the other ID'ed and likely ID'ed debris spells a very solid impact, or at best a failed ditching. Also the large section of flap indicates flaps were up, so it was not configured for ditching.

Why ditch for concealment when you are already in the middle of nowhere? The job is already done.

As for the power loss, in my mind, one of the first things the culprit would do is remove the chances of intervention and discovery, so its lock the cockpit door, transponders off, ACARS disabled. Not sure I care about satcom too much.

Knowing I was going to backtrack and fly across the peninsula, the possibility of a mobile phone contact or connection was there. So, eliminate that threat. Air con packs off and or outflow valves open.

I think the left bus supplies the auto deployment of the oxy masks so isolating that, (or whatever bus supplies it), also possible. We can theorize about duping pax about making a return to base with a defect but still suspect phone contacts could have been attempted when pax get panicky, so remove that threat. Render them unconscious quickly , perhaps only a few cabin crew get to a portable oxy cylinder in time. F/O possible given his phone connected briefly?

So powering off to some degree in my mind was not so much about the satcom but more so eliminating any threat to the plan.

If the RAT was deployed one would need to allow for the extra fuel burn, therefore range. Once deployed a RAT can only be retracted on the ground on the aircraft that I am familiar with. Pretty sure 777 is the same.

[u/redditpoint]

Sorry, I missed a key few seconds without realizing it. I have a problem with the analysis of the damage to the flaperon, located at the trailing edge of the wing and so protected by the wing as a whole (see diagram at 32:00). At 41:10 they argue that the flaperon would have suffered damage to its leading edge if it hit the water in a dive rather than a ditch, but that would only be true if it hit directly, rather than being protected by the wing. It seems entirely possible to me (with no computer analysis) that its leading edge, sheltered by the wing, could remain intact and that the other damage to it could still be caused by a high speed impact. I actually find the presentation as a whole compelling, but I can't get past this issue. If the computer simulation is worth doing and worth considering, shouldn't it at least reflect the actual scenario?

[u/[deleted]]

it is somewhere underwater like the 75 years old sumbmarine.