Macron's threats of Nato troops in Ukraine could become a reality if Putin's forces push west

I don't think it's realistic for troops from a NATO country to fight on the ground at the moment um however one of the scenarios that I think president macron or those that are trying to interpret his comments have suggested is that um there could be troops from a NATO contributing country or other countries that go onto the ground to uh protect Ukraine's borders with the likes of um Belarus so that the Ukrainian troops that are currently stuck protecting those deterring Bel or attack any attacks coming from Belarus could be freed up to go off to the front line that is a better possibility but I still think it is uh you know it would be a very brave move um and one which uh would be very difficult to um do safely because the Russians would potentially try and use those French troops or other troops as a Target is macron politically isolated on this or or is he sort of speaking to a growing groundwell of opinion that it may come to having troops on the ground well we're seeing a shift in opinion um and we'll have to work out why macron is doing this um because you it was only in the the first year of the war he was turning around saying that we shouldn't humiliate the humiliate the Russians and it seems now that he has changed his tune completely and we you remember macron was phoning Putin was trying to go and see Putin and everything else and now he is is one of the more vocal European um uh leaders on um how we should deal with the Russians um I think what he's seeing is what the UK is doing and the UK is being quite forward leaning in a lot of what's going on there and he recognizes how that is working um in getting additional support from Ukraine it's uh something that will set the UK up in a in a good way should there be a trump presidency remember Donald Trump wanted um you other countries to be as as forward leaning as as America is so that he could continue his support so he's doing that but more cynically um I'd say he's he's looking at the rise of the left wing and right wing within France and he's got elections coming up and will be putting something in to trying to appease them and and put himself out as you more of the hard man of Europe you we've it's no coincidence that we've seen photographs of macron in his boxing gloves you with shirt off and all the rest of it trying to look um you this this strong man almost in a Putin esque way um and the even greater cynic in me would turn around and say he's trying to build his relationship up with Ukraine so that whenever it comes to rebuilding Ukraine several years down the line that France is in a strong position to negotiate with the Ukrainian government this is something that France did uh a long time ago when it came to the rebuilding of Saro um after the uh the Bosnian War um and they they positioned themselves very quickly to be somewhere where French companies could get the contract to uh rebuild that so in one way I think he's been brave the other way um and the other reasoning I think I'm slightly cynical you mentioned Donald Trump a moment ago it's interesting the times is now reporting that that he would force NATO members to spend 3% of their GDP on defense if he were to win the White House again in November what do you make of that yeah it's it's interesting you Donald Trump turning around threat threatening to withdraw from NATO it's scaring a lot of NATO members because you they have been living off the generosity of the Americans for so many years uh America is spending significantly more than that they um agreed two and a half percent um UK has always been or agreed 2% UK has always been 2% or or above um as have only one or two other nations France Germany um were were you know France was just underneath Germany and other countries were significantly below that and president Trump basically if you analyze what he said in a an aggressive business type way he's effectively said if you don't pay your dues you won't get the support um and American Support is vital um for the success of NATO and and everything else we're starting to see NATO leaders waking up a little bit um they're now a lot more coming up to the 2% but you know it's what what you spend that 2% on and it it it takes a long time to build that into a capable military um capability and of course Trump when he comes in is going to try and do something to stir it even more especially if he sees that the comments that he made when he was president beforehand have started this move towards greater expenditure because he would love to withdraw some of the American Support back and keep that reinvestment going into continental United States but looking Beyond Trump the biggest threat and the longer term threat is southeast Asia and down into down with China so he will want to be setting up um his expenditure his his long-term planning and thinking to be able to Pivot to there and not have to continue to support Europe whenever the EU is you're a pretty rich par block wanted to ask you philli about comments by General Pavo who's the commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces he's been speaking to the time special correspondent Anthony Lloyd and he says that Ukraine is suffering whilst too many countries sit on their hands yeah is that right oh completely you know we we look at you what has caused ukrain stalling of their their counter offensive they they almost went too early in their counter offensive because they couldn't generate local Air superiority to attack into what are some of the most complex and difficult defensive positions possible but International um commentary um and and pressure from governments want wanted them to go but but the American Americans for purely domestic politics when the Speaker of the House refused to allow the vote to go through for the aid package that Aid package was vital for the release of um anti-air missiles for artillery shells which are very very basic in what is a an artillery slug at the moment on the front line um and a lot more military material the ukrainians PID for that delay in in lives and I think we're see we're also seeing a a lot of the promises that have come from European countries and from the UK not translating into um military material getting into Ukraine in any timely manner now that I think is for two reasons one reason um countries have suddenly realized that if they do give what they're promised their own stocks of ammunition and the like will be run down to dangerously low levels and in many cases that's below what um you is ordinarily agreed and would would then suggest that there would have to be more public debate about it and that's worrying and the second thing is um I think there's been this misconception that the defense industrial base across Europe um in in military terms was able to just flick a switch and generate all of this additional material um at very short notice and they suddenly realized it's not at short notice it's it's going to take you months years to be able to build up to the capacity that is needed with the ukrainians um and uh that has been paid for by Ukrainian lives and just finally Philip president macron in his comments said it shouldn't be ruled out having troops in NATO countries on the ground if Russia makes a significant breakthrough what do you think he would classify as a significant breakthrough well the front the front line of the moment I I suspect if the Russians managed to get a formation that would punch through the Ukrainian defenses um ukrainians are are doing a very clever military um activity at the moment they're trading space for time um so they're giving uh away to the Russians as they come in giving them that little bit of land and that time they're using to get the the new ammunition in the new missiles in to to to get everything ready to hold them and and then and then punch forward again but but if the Russians managed to push through and potentially showed uh the ability to get further um uh into Ukraine pushing towards cave or pushing towards um some some of the other cities that that that you've got before I think that's when maon would sit up and and think about it but he he's looking very much at domestic politics at the moment whether his words would translate into actions is something that I'm slightly skeptical about

Channel: Times Radio

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Id: UJpXGZAAMjI

Length: 9min 2sec (542 seconds)

Published: Fri May 03 2024