Kishore Mahbubani - How Asia is rapidly overtaking The West - De Balie Invites

freedom to me means self-determination it's the ability to choose and I think that that's what we all should have a right to and that's what we're all fighting for public debate is vital in a Democratic Society because that the public doesn't take part then the politicians take over and decide everything for themselves and a place like the Bali is important because that's where the public gets to say what they think of shape their opinions and listen to debate it's incredibly important that people continue to speak out in as well acknowledge the limitations and taking responsibility for questioning the limitations with knowledge comes a certain beauty we are then in a position to take action on that particularly in this very noisy fast culture what documentary does I is to take time to make meaning document there are films that considered alpha-male it's so peacefully by remaining about receipts he put along all of this enough alone saying you know clear and the valley is so click yes a very warm welcome antibody my name is Yuri Albrecht I am the director of the barley and I'm very very honored that I can tell you that Kishore mother Bonnie is here and that he will speak to us and with us it's very I heard him speak several times over the years he is I to my opinion one of the most interesting voices international voices to be heard he has been writing for decades already on the global development and he's been actually foreseeing the future in many ways things who we see materialized today he has been describing for more than a decade for more than 15 years ago it's always nice to to to write about the world but about about the world in your own time but the thing is that if you live long enough you have to prove the pudding is in the eating and in in respect to dr. Kishore mobile Bonnie it's extraordinary how he was able to predict things decades ago things about the rise of Asia thinks about the demise of the West thinks about how the West has lost his ways and he's here to talk about his newest booklet he wrote very huge and heavy books but he's written a booklet recently has to West lost its way it's at less than the verified it's been translated to him just published and he says that it's a pamphlet and a provocation and I think that's very nice because it's very very nice her friends in the world who provoked the West provoke Europe and and America in the way Kshama by Bonnie does because he's a big believer in love idea from the West he's actually the one who pointed out for a long long time to us that the West I heard him speak several years ago on the Seven Pillars of Western wisdom which is a very nice way of putting putting it that a lot of the the world is actually doing very well and it's doing very well because a lot of things the West has done but has the West lost its way now and actually if we look at what happened tonight there's another bombardment on Syria and whether we like that or we don't like that and we can of course debate on that we can have different opinions on that but dr. Bamba bonnie is writing about these sort of interventions in the rest of the world what he calls like the west and the rest already for a long time and has strong opinions and very interesting opinions on that so I think it couldn't have been more topical for him to speak to us today although these are developments who's been developing for decades and he is just he's been a diplomat for his home country Singapore for several decades he's been chairing among other things the United Nations Security Council when he was the president of it in 2001 and 2002 he's been the Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School for policy he's been professor of policy and and has been a diplomat and an academic for a long time he's on a sabbatical leave now has been just to Harvard another American university sends here to speak to us this afternoon dr. my Bonnie if I can ask you to come here and take the chair we will have a conversation after that also with Paul's her for whom I'm going to introduce later on thank you for being here [Applause] thank you thank you very much Yuri for this very generous introduction and let me say that I'm very happy to be back in the Netherlands for some you may not know this only I can say this I've actually spoken in many parts of the world I've actually launched books in many parts of the world and many languages but I always find that the most hospitable audience I always find is in the Netherlands and especially in Amsterdam so I'm very happy to be back here once again so I thank you for receiving me and as Yuri mentioned I'm here to launch a new book you've seen the Dutch cover this the English cover has the West lost it so what I propose to do I understand I have 20 minutes to 2:30 or so used to describe my thesis but of course I really do something very unusual at the beginning you know the title of my talk and my book is has the West lost it question mark and I'm supposed to keep you in suspense to the end before I give you the answer but let me you know take away the suspense and give you the answer right away and say the Ituri the answer is no you haven't lost it not yet but you may do so you may do so if you keep on going on autopilot and keep on doing the same things that you've been doing for the past few decades and the past few centuries so this book is actually as one of my friends said to me Kishore this is your love letter to the West to say wake up the world is changing and you have to change and adapt to so what I propose to do is to put across my thesis in three parts now I'll try to address three questions the first question being [Music] why does the West matter I mean why should we be concerned about the West the nd the West only makes up 12% of the world's population so why do we spend so much time on it and the second question is basically I'll try to describe what the West has been doing in recent decades and point out some mistakes that the West has made and then in part three I hope to provide some prescriptions or solutions for the West on what can be done to make both lives better for people in the West and people in the rest in the coming decades and that that's that's the outline of my presentation so let me begin with part one why does the West matter the simple answer is that the West matter because it has been by far the most successful civilization in human history frankly humanity today could very well have been in the dark ages if the West hadn't woken up transformed itself and after transforming itself began the process of transforming the world to as you know neither the Chinese nor the Indian nor the Islamic civilizations went through the Renaissance went to the Enlightenment went to that call those great transformations well what they got is that were the fruits of the Great Western transformation so for us in the rest of the world I do believe that we the rest of the world all should send a big thank you note to the West for having made this huge breakthrough and what is remarkable is that so few people have noticed that the West has now shared his gifts very generously with the rest of the world and as a result the human condition you can go back two or three thousand years has never been as good as it is today and all this is because of the West so let me let me describe to you how the world is a much better place today in several dimensions and I can tell you one thing this may come as a shock to you when a future historian from the yo 2100 says looks back on 2018 he will say the people of 2018 probably the luckiest people because they saw a greater improvement in 30 years than any other generation in human history did so as a big claim let me get the data okay take for example the area of war and peace and you know Wars go back thousands of years we've been trying to eradicate Wars deaths from conflicts seem like a mission impossible now let me give you the good news world peace has come you may not believe this so let me give you the data this is from Harvard's Steven Pinker who's written extensively two books now on the subject and I had a long conversation with him in Harvard just two weeks ago he says and I quote today we are probably living in the most peaceful moment of our species time on earth yes global violence has fallen steadily since the middle of the 20th century occurring through human security brief 2006 the number of battle deaths in interstate Wars has declined from more than 65,000 per year in the 1950 - less than two thousand per year in this decade that's amazing right what's even more amazing is that we've been trying to eradicate poverty since the beginning of human history and for those of you are alive in the 50s and 60s and remember the great debates about development and how we could have save the third world and you know rescue people from poverty and then by the 80s and 90s people began to lose hope and say it cannot be done guess what we did it and let me give you the data again this is what Oxford Max Rosa says in 1950 that's not so long ago I was born in 1948 so this is two years after I was born in 1950 three-quarters of the world were living in extreme poverty in 1981 it was still 44% in 2016 the research suggests that the share in extreme poverty has fallen below 10% from 75% in 1950 to 10% in 2016 that's an amazing improvement in the living condition and I can tell you that I can speak about this with some conviction because when I was born in Singapore Singapore in the 50s and 60s was a typical third world developing country per capita income was the same as Ghana five hundred dollars I was put on a special feeding program in our six years old because I was technically undernourished now as you can see I'm over nourished but I've seen this transformation and lived through it so that's another huge improvement the human condition but I can give you some other data let me just give you one more quotation so you understand how remarkable our times Johan Norberg of the Cato Institute notes cool if someone had told you in 1990 twenty-eight years ago that over the next 25 years world hunger would declined by 40% child mortality would have an extreme poverty would fall by three-quarters you'd have told them that they were a naive fool but the naive fools were right this is truly what has happened so why has it happened why as the world becomes so much better because the West shared his gifts with the rest and if you look at the book I give a lot of credit especially through the Western breakthrough in modern reasoning and how modern reasoning spread from the West to the rest and improve lives of people and this is a very important thing I can say this because you know when I grew up with my parents and yes their sense of the world their feeling was that if something terrible happens its fate you can't do anything about it you can't change anything and then we learned we went to western-style schools we discovered there's cause and effect and if there's a problem you can analyze it find its roots and find the solution and that's how you find solutions to many other pressing issues that were holding us back and it's quite remarked how amazingly as I said the human condition has improved and in the book I talk about three sort of revolutions that follow the spread of Western reasoning to the rest of the world one was a political revolution and but what I mean by this political revolution it wasn't for a long time especially in Asia when we were ruled by the kings and queens they believe that their divine right to rule they never felt that they had any sense of accountability to the people thanks to the West the concept of accountability to the people spread to the world so even in a communist country like China right the Communist Party actually believes that it is accountable to the people that's a huge difference then you begin taking care of the people you go to schools you build clinics you build infrastructure that's what you do when you're accountable to the people the second revolution is psychological the sense that hey you can improve your lives and move ahead I've mentioned that and the third revolution I'm giving you a very quick run-through because we are doing have time but the third revolution has been in the area of good governance and this too is a concept that the West has shared with the rest of the world so the result of all this and this will be clear to a future historian in the year 2100 he will look back at this past three decades and say hey the Western project to make the world a more civilized place has succeeded and therefore you should be seeing great celebrations in the West today but as you know and as I know the West is so depressed in fact I believe is in a deep funk and again this would be a great puzzle to the future historian you'll say what happened the Western project succeeded globally and the West is so depressed clearly the West has lost its way in some ways and the question therefore is what mistakes has the West made and so this is part two of my presentation and I'll talk about the mistakes that the West has made of course you can this many but I'll highlight what I call three strategic mistakes that the West made the first strategic mistake was at the end of the Cold War and as you know the end of the Cold War was a major turning point for the West there was I know you remember 1990 the West was in such a celebratory triumphalist mood the essay by Francis Fukuyama came out end of history we the world history is ended we all going to become liberal democratic societies the West can now relax the rest we've got a struggle but we succeeded we made it one of the most cruel things I say in the book is that Francis Fukuyama's essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because it made the West complacent at precisely the moment of history 1990 when China and India were waking up and why is that so important because from the Year 1 to the Year 1824 1800 out of the last 2,000 years the two largest economies of the world have always been those of China and India and so in the last 200 years that Europe took off an American took off but the last two years of world history when you view them against the backdrop of past 2,000 years of world history have been a major historical aberration all aberrations come to a natural end and that's happening right now as you and I speak just give you one statistic in 1980 the United States share of the global GNP was 25% China's share of the global GNP 1918 VBB terms was two point two percent analysis was ten times larger then by 2014-2015 China's share became larger than United States and nobody noticed that the world had changed in the last 30 years right that's an amazing change and in 2008 in PPP terms India became the third largest economy in the world nobody noticed so at a time when the world was going through a magnificent transformation Francis Fukuyama's si put the West to sleep the second strategic mistake happened in 2001 another critical year in human history I suspect when if I ask you all what happened in 2001 most of the answers I get so it's pretty obvious what happened in 2001 9/11 happened in 2001 right Osama bin Laden organized the operation the World Trade Center towers came crashing down actually my wife and I were in Manhattan when it happened we didn't see the towers come down but we were there and it was a shock to America a huge shock and suddenly America began to get involved completely in the Islamic world invading Afghanistan invading Iraq and in the process the United States failed to notice that something more momentous happen in 2001 much more significant and what was that it was China's admission into WTO and when China got admitted into WTO about 800 million workers was suddenly thrust into the global capitalist system and then as Joseph Schumpeter taught us there was creative destruction jobs were lost and that's how Trump happened right so if you don't pay attention to the real strategic changes and you get distracted by 9/11 you get the consequences and the third strategic mistake that the West made was an even bigger one it failed to see that in the course of these past few decades as a result of all the great transformations I described to you in part 1 of my lecture that the world has become a small densely interconnected global village everything now hangs together whatever you do you have to look at the total picture and not try to view problems in their slices whatever you do has got consequences somewhere else you take an action here it has a consequence somewhere else and to give you a good example if America had been strategically awake and aware as I mentioned it should have seen that China's admission into WTO would have an amazing impact China's economy will grow and therefore America should have focus on China right instead I can tell you as you know the United States decided in 2003 to invade Iraq and on the day when it after admit after invaded Iraq we discovered that he couldn't even I couldn't export in Rocky oil because there was Security Council sanctions on Iraq and therefore America worked hard to live the sanctions was difficult the Security Council's badly divided the time or the day when the sanctions were lifted I asked a senior American diplomat in charge of this say who helped you so I thought he would say Oh Britain help me France help me Germany help me no he said it was China that helped America and I tell you this story for one reason because he will show you how China was paying attention to the big picture and America wasn't because by lifting the sanctions on Iraq number one Chinese got immediate reward because America squeezed Taiwan I can tell you more about that later but more importantly the Chinese wanted to legitimize the American presence in Iraq to ensure that America remain bogged down in Iraq while China kept growing and I can tell you I gave you the data in PPP terms let me give you the data in nominal terms it's an even more amazing story in the year 2000 America's GNP was 8 times bigger than China's one year before China got a metre in WTO by 2015 America was just one point six times bigger and within ten years China's will become bigger so instead of paying attention to China America got distracted and that's why you have all these challenges coming our way so the question therefore now is now try to do this in five minutes what should the West do and I proposed in the book that the West should adopt a new 3m strategy 3m sends forth not for the Minnesota mining company in Minnesota but it stands for three words beginning with M the first M is minimalist and this is a very critical point in one way or another the West has basically intervened in the affairs of the rest of the globe for 200 years right it's a fact I mean you know you in Netherlands know this world you colonize Indonesia right so far away the other side of the world you colonize them you could do it today is inconceivable right but the habits of the 19 and 20th century continue to linger and as you mentioned Paul sorry Yuri they mentioned that today the bombing took place and how is this bombing going to help either the Syrians are you why don't you try to find alternative solutions and in the book I say that every time an American ambassador to the UN speaks like I have the exact words in the book they would say this is a struggle between the democracies of the world and the tyrannies of Russia and China right the struggle between good and evil black and white well I say okay if you say this is a struggle between the democracies of the world and the tyrannies of the world why don't you listen to the number one democracy in the world the largest democracy in the world which is India or the number three democracy in the world which is Indonesia why do you only speak of Western democracies let me quote to you what an Indian diplomat wrote down he's a pretty most see one of the most senior Indian diplomats his name is sham Sarang he describes what happens as a result of Western interventions he says it Morton in most cases the post intervention situation has been rendered much worse the violence more lethal and the suffering of the people who are supposed to be protected much more severe than before Iraq with an earlier instance Libya and Syria are the more recent ones a similar story is playing itself in Ukraine he says in each case no careful thought was given to the possible consequences of the dimension so if you really want to involve the democracies of the world then why not listen to the largest democracy in the world which is India or the third largest democracy which is Indonesia and if you listen to them your values would change and then you will know you won't have to get so involved in the affairs of other states and let me emphasize one point I must emphasize that your gifts of Western reasoning have worked so well on the rest of the world that these other civilizations will continue succeeding without your intervention and if I even do better so that's one minimalist second multilateral and here it's again I mentioned I emphasize to you that the great strategic mistake was not realizing how we're becoming a small interconnected global village now when you become a small interconnected global village you need a global village councils right and we're there unfortunately there are global village councils this is a gift of multilateral order that the West gift up to the world at the end of World War two United Nations IMF World Bank GATT World Trade Organization this our Western gifts to the rest of the world an amazingly I know this I was ambassador the UN for 10 years the United States has been steadily undermining or weakening global multilateral institutions that's a big mistake and the person who points out that this is a mistake is a former president of America his name is Bill Clinton and I caught him in the book he says if America assumes is going to be number one forever then just keep doing what you're doing doesn't matter viewing electro then we'll print an editor button say but if you can conceive of a world where you're no longer number one then it's in America's national interests those strengthen multilateral rules multilateral procedures multilateral institutions he came this advice in 2003 in a speech in here 15 years ago no one has ever repeated that advice since the development in today second strategic mistake and so that's the second thing that the US has to do promote multilateral institutions and the third suggestion I have are just mentioning because I'm running out of time it's also the one that is the most shocking I bet none of you will guess what the M word is the third M word is mark your value I know in the West Machiavelli is regarded as an embodiment of evil in fact I quote the one of America's biggest political scientists Leo Strauss are saying Machiavelli's embodiment of evil but if you go back and read a wonderful essay by Sir as I above in a British liberal philosopher who liked ESEA Machiavelli the New York Review of Books you will find that as I am but in explains that the goal of Machiavelli at the end of the day was to promote virtue his goal was to try and achieve better outcomes at the end of the day and I actually believe and this is a subversive thought I'm living for you at the end that in some ways paradoxically if the West became more Machiavellian more calculating about where is real interest lay then actually the West will be better off and the world would be better off thank you can I ask you a few questions we might sit down children to elaborate a little bit on the many things you said and then we asked professor Paul never to comment on the book and maybe even on what you just said because I saw him taking down notes but I'm here I think it's too many notes and just just to elaborate a few points you're making and I've been reading your books and other books your book and other books so just and there are many things about what you write you like and also the tone of voice you do it you come with a very good friend and giving advice and that's of course a very nice way and the diplomatic wave you've been a diplomat for a big part of your life in what way do you really like the West is it just a way of a way that you know that people will tend to listen better if you make them compliments first or or are you really you're basically saying it might be Machiavellian no III would say that my admiration for the West is very genuine because I mean and I say this quite honestly because you know this will distract you I met Nick Lee a Sindhi you know you know it's in these are subgroup of Indians in these and if you look at let's say above my generation right my mother my father my uncle aunties and their huge families you know they had my age my mother and father at six seven siblings none of them went to university no one in my family none of my three sisters went the university none of my first cousins older than me we went to university so in this all generation or generation generation for now in the u.s. I was the first one ever of all my relatives to enter modern University University of Singapore and I studied philosophy mainly Western philosophy and it completely transformed me in many aware of how big the world is you know and and by the way it doesn't mean that my first cousins failed and by the way my first cousins a much richer than me they went to business they made lots of money they considered me the man who failed I went to government where he who makes money in government right and then but then after me all the my children all my nephews and nieces and all the children of my first cousins have all gone to university and who created and this this entrance into the university world opens your mind I know this because I saw where my mind was before I went how my mind opened and this is a gift from the West and and the fact and one reason why the human condition is becoming so improving so much is because all these Western star universities are producing graduates who understand science and technology and cause and effect and then setting up clinics in remote villages and teaching mothers how to wash their hands to get rid of germs and you know as a result that infant mortality in the last thirty years ago to show this is by day we have saved more babies in the last 30 years than in hundreds of years you know you want data go to Stephen Pickers book so the I two pi admiration for the West is not faint is real which is why I'm actually therefore as a result n genuinely puzzle that the most successful civilization in human history no doubt about it has lost this way in the last thirty years and lost this way very badly that's why as my friends say this is a love letter to the West Wycombe yeah yeah I read it like that you say it's a provocation but it actually it's much more of a love letter it's much more how come you've done so wonderful things and you know and stop doing them and then then you say but there's there's something which also puzzles me because in a way you could say that like you pointed out in the beginning of your lectures well the West succeeded good governance sort of went all over the world there's hardly any real poverty and maimed last real poverty will be eliminated you know over the next decade or by 2030 by 2013 it's probably it might be really gone so it's it looks like it really succeeded but you could also say that and you say the really important thing in 2001 is not the World Trade Center but it's the entran entering of China into the World Trade Organization it's interesting and it's and and you could say that sort of real chief and also the Western institutions to to have the man turn but then you're saying Europe should also help establish a good governance in northern Africa and the Arab countries because that's where the real danger for your obliged that's real first task of European society but isn't it you could also argue let's a lot of people in the West are arguing arguing it's about time we stop helping everybody in the world and start thinking about ourselves which sounds a bit Machiavellian which you say is suppose the West should do as well so how should I look at that well I think is it time we stop you know giving development aid and yeah I mean how how does that fit into you yeah well I mean I'm glad you mentioned North Africa because in my one of my very first essays which I wrote I think 1993 so 25 years ago was called the West and the rest in national interest is published and I pointed out in 1993 I said Europe watch out because if you don't do anything about North Africa right very soon the people in North Africa are going to discover that Mediterranean is a small pond and the boats will come so I spoke about this 25 years ago absolutely you predicted but why why the reports come it's interesting now for a start okay whether or not you continue helping them or not help them is one question but one thing you can do is not assume that by your intervention you'll make things better and as you know of surprisingly in the case of Libya it was not America nobody's America this interventionist country but UK and France decided to intervene in Libya and the result was that the Libyans are worse off now and in many ways the boats are now coming from Libya so be very careful when you intervene in other societies but there's also a more positive message that I give in this book and other books which is that at the end this is a very important psychological point I'm going to make the North Africans cannot learn about development from Europeans they cannot because culturally you're very different so how did the Asians succeed why did if I were the Asians the first non-western states to modernize the reason is that Japan succeeded for us and when Japan succeeded then the neighbors of Japan said hey Japan can do it maybe we can do it so the four Tigers Korea Taiwan Hong Kong Singapore succeeded and the fourth for Tiger succeeded the ASEAN States say hey we can also succeed so Malaysia copied Singapore Thailand and then Marlin copied Singapore and then we succeeded then Xiaoping came to Southeast Asia and then shopping said hey how these Asian states vassal states of China they can succeed we can succeed too you know the ripple effect of such so if you want to create a ripple effect of development in North Africa and I mean this quite sincerely find the best the brightest young people from Tunisia from Algeria from Morocco send them to Southeast Asia to see why Indonesia is so successful Indonesia was supposed to break apart and become the Yugoslavia of Southeast Asia in 1997-1998 today Indonesia is the most successful Islamic democracy and Indonesia is doing so well that by 2050 you'll have the fifth largest economy in the world your former colony amazing so you they will learn psyche it's it's all about the psychology of development so I have as she lived in what I call the pre-modern world as a child progresses in the modern world and then began to realize the opportunities you just pointed out very eloquently the way the Chinese sort of bogged down the Americans at the beginning of the century in the Middle East in Iraq because the Chinese kept their eyes on the ball on top of number long on the long haul and but on the other hand and you're saying you're predicting maybe you've been written writing about it that China will become the first power in the world and that's very very likely indeed but you're saying I also take bets [Laughter] red wine but and you're saying but yes but don't worry about that because the Chinese will behave but if you if I listen to your example I mean they're cunning they're Machiavellian I mean I mean isn't that sort of a bit much to just think that it will be well yeah well I think you know I'm so glad you asked that question because that's actually one other point I didn't make to you all today is that I think that the next 10 years of human history are gonna be among the 10 most important years in human history and I the reason why I'm writing this book now is that we have a small window of opportunity to shape how in China emerges as number one and to put it very simply if you work with China now to set up a cooperative order that incorporates your interests and their interests we will have a stable world but if you provoke China now then you're gonna end up in a troubled world and that's why Bill Clinton's advice is very apt he's basically and he was being moved actually the advice that Bill Clinton gave as I say in the book was a very Machiavellian what Bill Clinton was saying to his fellow Americans if you really beneath the lines what he's saying is hey guys wake up China is going to become number one we going to become number two now how do we make sure that we put the handcuffs of multilateralism onto china simple we put the handcuffs of multilateralism on ourselves first as America and then when China becomes number one just take out the handcuffs and you put on China that's what he's suggesting in a very Machiavellian way that's what Bill Clinton was suggesting now if they were you know what I find puzzling is that America used to have big strategic thinkers and give you something three examples Henry Kissinger said biggio Brzezinski George Kennan they're gone you don't have any of the strategic thinkers and you know what as I say in the book when when united states began to push for the expansion of NATO Kissinger advise against it paczynski advise against it George Kennan advise against it so that me know therefore how you treat China is very important now but that means that the question is what you do to China will determine what China will do to you and I'm given the fact that there might not be too much strategic insight inside the Pentagon or the foreign or a foreign office the the the Minister of Foreign Affairs that bites a lot of bad weather a lot of trouble no no unless they read my book unless I read your book yeah yeah yeah there'll be a better place but I understand and and if you look at but then again if you look at because you're saying the waves of the west are the interference of the West Was lot of the world wasn't wasn't good at all but the way they they brought good governance and the reason reason reason to the world the Enlightenment part of that a real important part of that of the success program is democracy good and in the book you're saying yes the Western democratic thinkers have pointed out that it's not such a good system but better than all the alternatives and that's sort of a little connotation from but how do you look upon democracy because you you you don't really mention that sort of the core value of what West has brought I mean saying it's important but other has you pointing out that you can have a good governance without democracy how do you so how should we go about with a man like ji Qing Peng who gives himself eternal power yeah is that how yeah well I'm glad you raised the democracy question but it you know it's a very complicated question it is it's not something it's not a question you can give very simple answers to but let me just make a few quick points one I believe in democracy I would like to live in a democratic society rather than an undemocratic society and I actually believe that eventually all societies will become democratic although eventually I don't know when it's going to be especially China will be the big exception because China clearly has succeeded without becoming a democracy although as I emphasized earlier the government still considers itself accountable to the people even though it is not a democracy the second point is about and the second point is that democracy actually has spread to the third world and as I mentioned the world's largest democracy is India the third largest democracies Indonesia so democracy sort of flourishing and succeeding in the third world is not just undemocratic societies flourishing and at that point about China actually the Chinese government learnt a major lesson from the collapse of the Soviet Union the collapse of the Soviet Communist Party and they saw what happened to the Russian people you know the Russian economy imploded life expectancy the Russians came down infant mortality of the Russians went up and they said hey that can happen to us too so the Chinese will not make an immediate transition to a democracy under the present government policy I might also say this in some ways the Chinese Communist Party is doing the world and the West a favor by remaining in power because if you had a democratic government in China today at a time when Chinese pride is rising and going up to the roof a democratically elected Chinese government or be far more nationalist and Donald Trump far more as tif than Donald Trump and he will actually become a far more difficult country to deal with so the Chinese Communist Party is actually delivering a global public good by bottling up Chinese nationalism that's a very interesting point yeah if you say bottling up you know then then it becomes sort of Oh meaning is in a way because things you bottle up tend to to which is which is why which is why if you look carefully at the record of the Chinese Communist Party and this was to be the subject of a different book it's actually be proved to be very adept at managing China I give you one simple thing the conventional wisdom 20 years ago about China's economic development was that China can keep growing in the first phase of development because all it has to do is to copy from the rest of the world but China will not succeed in the second phase of development because second phase of development requires innovation creativity now if you have a communist government you cannot have creativity and innovation I don't know how many of you have been to China recently if you really want to be can encounter some of the most innovative industries today go to China when you carry in China if you carry cash the thing you are dinosaur nobody carries cash everybody pays for everything and I'm not exaggerating the smartphone does everything for you everything and you can press your smartphone and within one hour hot boiled egg appears for breakfast and your doorstep smartphone you want you want mobile payments you want even mobile bags and also in some of them bleeding areas of Science and Technology a Chinese have broken through so what happened how is it that the theory says in a communist party you cannot have creative creative and innovation in practice you do now that takes a certain amount of skill you know and ability and so I always say yes all your detractors may be right China may collapse and feel of course it can happen anything can happen but if you are a betting man I say watch out if the Chinese succeed be careful and you're saying rightfully I would say that Machiavelli is largely misunderstood in the West as you know being an evil philosopher on public policy and politics I believe you're absolutely right you know that actually the first poem I ever wrote I ever got published when I was 18 was a sonnet on Machiavelli praising Machiavelli and how I really liked him but because he does I look for a better world in which citizens have more virtue to be like you vir to you but in in Italy if you have to yeah but it's so I do actually think you have a very good point on the other hand what the West if it becomes more Machiavellian I mean we if you look at colonialism that's been quite Machiavellian for a while so should in what way would you say we should have or we should become more looking after your own interests yeah my book is up there but if you if any of you get the book look at the last few page there's a paragraph in the which begins by something like you're saying that I'm certain that my friends in Africa Asia and Latin America will be troubled by my call on the West to be more Machiavellian so let me explain to them why I believe it's better for the West to become more Machiavellian because if the West becomes more Machiavellian and realizes where its real interest lie it will intervene less in the rest of the world so it's actually good for the rest of the world and at the end of day you know I believe that a strong and successful America is good for the world so even America loses his way and elects Trump it's very bad for the world but if America is in a good mood confident happy successful it's good for the world I actually want to see a strong America I don't want to see a weak America so all my advice isn't that and then I one other statistic I have in the book which is quite remarkable United States as you know spends more on defense than any other country the world much much much much more I don't know quite know why because it's the safest country in the world they only go to fight against Canada and Mexico you mean you only need one battalion on each side your job is done you don't need eleven aircraft carriers to fight Canada and Mexico the rest China has got a fight with Japan Russia India and so on and so forth big difference right and in the country that is building 11 aircraft carriers right I think if either statistic in my book if it's correct is that two-thirds of American families do not have emergency cash cash of $500 to spend two-thirds this is the world's richest country so clearly if America did more to help its people it more to help the bottom 10 20 30 percent and create a happier society a happier America is good for the world and that's what you call what Machiavellian noise and less intervening less hubris more more or looking after its own interest in that respect yes thank you for elaborating that last point and wonderful speaking to you I could have I could be asking you know 1020 other other questions thank you for sharing it with we asked professor Paul Shaffer publicly and one of our main public intellectuals I would say writing on Europe on the borders of Europe on the world for decades already in the Netherlands and internationally professor at Tilburg University also being involved in a long long study on chat on the waste China India and Brazil looking at Europe and we ask you to to comment on the on the books on the book books and on maybe what you've heard thank you for coming Paul thank you very much for the invitation it's a great honor and a real pleasure to engage in this conversation if only thank you for bringing or my book just brought on it just to emphasize that I've been teaching my students over the last seven years with the help of your books so I've been reading them rereading them and I could say that trying to understand the world with the rise of China in the Brazil how it affects Europe there's been a great challenge what you write a great source of inspiration and I would like to read to you because I think you fulfill the program of a famous British historian Arnold Toynbee who wrote in 1948 already the following words the paradox of our generation is that all the world has now profited by an education which the West has provided except the West herself the West today 1948 is still looking at history from the old parochial self-centered standpoint which the other live in societies have been by now being well to transcend and he went on to say but sooner or later the West in her turn is bound to receive the re-education which the other civilizations have already obtained so I think you're providing exactly this reeducation by confronting Western societies America Europe with the perspective of other parts of the world and I think it's basically I think there cannot be any meaningful discussion about your basic assumption that is to say that the last 200 years have been in terms of world history in aberration that is to say the over-representation of a small part of the world's demography world's population in the world economy is historically seeing an aberration and it will come to an end no even if China will flounder even if Indonesia will not become the fifth largest and by 250 because who knows what will be the world at that time still the underlying basic shift that we are already seeing from the last 3040 years will continue so I think there cannot be any meaningful contradiction when also Henry Kissinger described in China not as an emerging power but as a returning power and I think that's true for India and for other countries as well it's basically also a hopeful message you have because the world is becoming a more equal place with all the uncertainties perhaps that provides for Western societies haven't learned to look at the world in a very Eurocentric or Western centric perspective but it's a hopeful message because it entails the rise so many countries also the alleviation of so many people from poverty so I think there we basically agree and I think what you've been writing in last 15 years about this is hard to challenge so I've four critical observations based on what I've just said the first one is that you assume that this basic shift is not being perceived in the West that we are somehow oblivious to what is happening in the world when I read the European integration in the history of European integration I would say that already in 1973 the Declaration of Copenhagen acknowledges the major shift that has gone on in the world and say Europe has to speak with one voice or it will fail so the whole single market in the mid 90s was just one big response to the rise of Japan Japan is somehow absent in your recent book not in previous ones but it's not very often quoted but I can still remember very vividly that in the 1980s the rise of Japan and the whole idea of Japan is about to overtake the United States was a major source of inspiration for European integration so we cannot understand the underlying dynamic of European integration without this wider context and simply claiming that this shift has been somehow not observed by Western elites is I think bordering on an overstatement to go one step further I think we cannot understand European integration without the context of decolonization we have always told the narrative about your Europe after the Second World War as European integration is the answer to war returning in Europe it's basically the reflection on the horrible catastrophe of Second World War the European integration would have not been possible without decolonization if France Belgium the Netherlands Italy would have remained colonial powers they would have never discovered each other as neighbors on the European continent so European decolonization the decolonization of Europe was in a very fundamental way the precondition of European integration so I think this whole power shift that is going on in the world was fundamental to understanding why European integration is going on for six years because it's not only a moral tale based on the Second World War but it's also till more Machiavellian if you want about how to unite to remain a relevant voice in a world that is changing beyond recognition my second critical observation would be that while we could agree easily on economic convergence that is going on that is to say the relative rise of China and others the relative decline of Europe in America the question is and there I find more ambiguity in your writing where you also think there is a cultural convergence go on let me confront you with two brief quotes from your own work on the one hand you stress that there is a process of D westernization you write the mindsets of the largest populations within Asia the Chinese Muslims and the Indians have been changed irrevocably where once they may have been borrowing Western cultural perspectives now their perceptions are grown further and further apart so here we have divergence then at the same time you write and basically that was the lesson of today as well you say Asian societies are not succeeding because of a rediscovery of some hidden or forgotten strength of Asian civilizations instead they are rising now because they have finally discovered the pillars of Western wisdom you say we are witnessing a convergence on a certain set of norms and on how to create better societies so my question will be in it's really an open question because I think that is one of the most fundamental questions to ask about our world whether beyond economic convergence we see cultural civilizational convergence or is it the earlier quote that we're drifting further and further apart to me that seems one of the great questions of our time because if we're really growing further and further apart then the world is not becoming a more peaceful place third critical observation would be you have a counsel to Europe saying basically our strategic first strategic question that we confront is a spillover of internal conflict you quoted interstate conflict with Pinker but of course the death resulting from intra state conflict are enormous half a million people died in the Syrian civil war so there is a real turmoil surrounding Europe you rightly say Europe doesn't have doesn't need a global perspective to begin with its first strategic priority should be what is going on in northern Africa the Middle East and I would add also the forms of disintegration of some of the republics of the former Soviet Union at the same time you say the American interest is elsewhere it's China so basically your counsel to America and Europe are very different you say America should disengage from this direct neighborhood of Europe so to say from the Middle East from northern Africa it's not a strategic priority Europe should engage more in a peaceful way in the economic way etc the basic you say there's no common interest anymore of the West the West should fall apart but if this is true and if the world that is in front of us is a world that could be described as multipolar which is basically when I go to China it's basically what people tell me we want the European Union that is strong as one of the poles in a multipolar world and that is basically looking after its own neighborhood the Americans should do that China should do that India to do that Brazil should do that South Africa shooters etc but if the world is really world of China first of India first of Russia first of America first of Europe first regional powers basically from a perspective of self-interest not engaging to far beyond their own reach it's not also a world where nationalism would be thriving where Trump is indeed not an aberration but fits in a logic there is also at work in Russia Russian nationalism is at work in China I'm not that confident about the bottling up of Chinese nationalism to be asked but isn't Trump in that way fitting into an overall logic of a multipolar world when he says we're not going to engage in Syria too much and we're not seeing in Syria what the world will be after the Pax Americana which I do agree with you is obsolete but the void will be filled and it is filled by Turkey by Iran by Russia by others and that produces a civil war that's going on for seven years so where is the multilateralism beyond these perspectives of regional powers looking after our own interests and being minimalist in a way but what is the world then in that view my last critical remark would be this we have been talking about Japan for a long time in the eighties in 90s I refer to that where the perspective of economic convergence now you say what has happened to last 30 years you project that into 2050 I think we should be a little mirror bit more humble in a way because you rightly say that who could have imagined the world as it is today 30 years ago and I would add who will be able to imagine now from where we are now the world how it will be in 30 years time I think we should be a little bit more humble in these projections of shares of GDP to 250 because I've seen the projections about Japan the 80s have seen similar projections about the Soviet Union in the 1950s we're living basically the third version of a convergent Theory economically speaking the two others failed in a way so a little bit more uncertainty there would be welcome I would say I started my research with your books very much with the idea of the decline of the West and after visiting China India Brazil talking to many many people several times I was confronted with a very self-critical analysis in those countries saying you haven't got the faintest idea how vulnerable we are how much internal contradictions we are living don't think that the past performance gives you any guarantee about our future performance we will stumble in to unforeseen contradictions and I can say that my reading of what's going on China the centre ization of power that's going on in China betrays a sense of vulnerability it's not a sign of strength to accumulate so much power into one person it's a sign this this overall sense of vulnerability of weakness in the Chinese Communist Party leading to a sense of control that is growing grown also in the universities people I met five years ago are now much more afraid to speak out openly than five years ago so how do you look at those vulnerabilities in China and the mirror of that is I think I concluded my research after five years with better understanding the hidden vitality of European societies in terms of their universities in terms of the urban culture in terms of culture of relative equality relative stable states in terms of justice not that high forms of corruption that you can see in for example in Brazil and some other examples so there is a hidden strength in European societies that we shouldn't underestimate that is why I think the love letter is sent to a good address because it will be hurt I think it has been hurt already at least in Tober at the University thank you very much Thank You professor I'll scare her for observations and questions and compliments and remarks for in fact probably we start off with one or two and then no III took note i I thought least these were these are excellent observations and very helpful I'm truly grateful to you you know for making them because it's you always learn more from criticisms you know especially you know constructive criticisms like the one that you're offering and I I would say I agree with some of your points and and maybe not but other so well you're right about the the European Union project the first point it is I mean it was a result of rise of Japan it was also an effort as you know to counterbalance United States also because the euro project lady was you didn't want to rely completely on the US dollar and so you wanted to have your own so I by the way I should emphasize I'm I'm one of the greatest lovers of the European Union you know I actually think that the European Union has a chief what I call the ultimate pinnacle of civilizational achievement and what is his ultimate pinnacle and this is where I wrote a book on ASEAN last year and in the book on a sea and I say that in Europe you have zero was in ASEAN you have zero Wars we don't find each other also by the European Union you have gone to a much higher level you have zero prospect of right what happened you touched your microphone I think it's my jacket okay I shouldn't turn so much so the in ASEAN we don't have zero prospect of all yet so we want to our dream is to replicate what the European Union is achieve and actually thing I think or larger East Asia let's say if you can achieve zero prospect of war within China and Japan within China and India that would be a fantastic thing so this is something that we can still continue to learn from the European Union so that's why I also think that we need a strong European Union and and and therefore I'm actually quite puzzled by the pessimism in Europe mmm cuz you know I mean frankly if you look at the quality of life of the European citizens it is far better than the quality of life of citizens anywhere even in United States America the inequality in the United States is far greater I mean if you ask me what's a model Society for the world what I would like to see let's say in Singapore be something like Sweden or Denmark or you know that that's the kind of society that we want to replicate in the rest of the world so what you have done is yes it is it is positive for the world so please cheer up and look happy number two on convergence economic finger in a very critical point and here I would say that you have to slice in Utah convergence you have to slice three different dimensions on the economic site there'll be a convergence on the cultural side there could be a divergence but on the geopolitical side it depends on the decisions you make and to give you an example of how the job politics and go either way as you know India has been very successful India Indian economy is doing very well and what's interesting is as India is doing better and better you would assume that India would become to look Weston but suddenly for the first time in India's history you know most Indian Prime Minister's used to wear like me jacket and tie Manmohan Singh used to go out and jacket and tie but now we have a prime minister of India who doesn't want to wear the jacket and tie he wants to wear Indian clothes he went to Davos Victor you were there he doesn't speak in English he speaks in Hindi that's cultural divergence but at the same time Modi is geopolitically the most provost and prime minister indira said because he's afraid of China not just because of that I think there are other reasons also it's also a way of leveraging Indian power it's a shrewd automation hyemi doesn't mean he completely agrees with the West because on Iran he disagrees with your policies for example you know American policies on Iran he disagrees so that's that's that's a cultural divergence but in the Kiester the critical point you made is about the European Union in USA should you go apart of stare together but let me give you one example you survive only talking about North Africa but I can tell you Europe's long-term challenge can be captured in one demographic statistic okay in 1950 Europe's population was twice that of Africa's four hundred million 200 million today Africa's population is more than twice that of Europe by 2100 Africa's population is going to be 10 times that of Europe so clearly if Africa doesn't develop then Europe is gonna have a big problem huge you have 4 billion people south of you so what is Europe's long-term strategic interests to develop Africa what do you want to see in Africa you want to see more roads more bridges more ports more infrastructure and guess who can be a partner to build infrastructure in Africa China so why don't you then work with China to develop infrastructure in Africa that retains Africans in in Africa and exports less Africans outside but then if you do that the United States would say excuse me a second whose side are you on so that's why that that's the question whose side are you on are you on your own side are you going to protect your long-term geopolitical interest in Africa or are you then going to become subservient to America and say no no I'll join you in isolating China it doesn't matter if I suffer that's what I mean about calculating your own interests and it doesn't have to be and this is a very critical point I make also in the book it doesn't have to be a zero-sum game because America's growth story China's growth can also be good for America in fact one of the when I had lunch with Henry Kissinger a few weeks ago I don't don't quote this piece and I think he think he said this publicly if I'm not absolutely sure I will write it down immediately he said you know as you know when when China is a fact China when China created the Asian infrastructure investment bank the Obama administration opposed it he made phone calls everywhere saying don't join I'm sure then how got a phone call don't join but Henry Kissinger said that was a mistake UNITA said should have joined the AIP and I agree with them because an American American and Eydie with an America inside would have much higher standards of good governance so it is not a zero-sum game so therefore you've got to can't do these calculations in a much more sophisticated and nuanced way then it's been done but as you know that's not the case often in in European policy that if you want a very quick one liner on your last point about projections you're absolutely right the projections can go completely wrong China can collapse in the next 10 years and China can become like Japan but let me emphasize one very critical point here okay everybody keeps saying you look at Japan didn't make it so China may also not make it but Japan's population is 130 million China's population is 1.3 billion 10 times larger all that the Chinese have to do is achieve 25 percent of the per capita income of Americans then China will have a bigger economy and if you assume the Chinese are one-quarter smart or one half as smart as the average American they'll also succeed and let me just add one very important point about China China has his own cycles of going up and down and when the down cycle comes they go down for one or two hundred years you can go back and check and when the up cycle comes they are for 300 years so the Chinese cycle mmm so what you have seen so far in my view is the beginning 40 years of a 300 year up cycle oh I won't be around to but perhaps one there is of course so many things to say now but let me ask you one thing you're describing the relative decline of the West which is in itself something that is basically the outcome of a much larger rise of others so that is I think beyond dispute but you somehow seem to have still great expectations about Western responses to this change affecting the world for example you're right when the West wouldn't have humiliated Russia Putin would have would not have happened I think Putin was first of all a reaction to the desn't aggression of the Soviet Union and they did the ruinous governance in the Yeltsin period if you looked at pages Burke at that time there was mafia all over the place so first of all it was an internal dynamic in Russia that produced in perhaps a majority one thing strong leadership not so much and didn't I mean the answers were to be criticized I do agree there was a too hasty expansion of NATO etc but to think that that was the determining factor for Putin's rise I think it's overestimating Aero the same is true for Africa that is of course that should be some worry if we could be the decisive factor we can certainly contribute but if I look at Egypt the population of Egypt now half of the is under 24 better educated than ever with less prospects than ever we can help to build infrastructure contribute to universities etc but the turmoil in Egypt first of all starting which is deep demography secondly with the effects of climate change on this very vulnerable Delta and it's people living there the religious strife the author return solutions etc the West can help but a doubt whether it can really make a difference the difference in Egypt in the end it should be Egypt itself agent civil society its leadership etc coming off for solutions and that is you have in many ways you have still great expectations about to Western possibilities where I would say the lesson of this relative decline is indeed less interference more reliance upon civil society elites in those societies but this is a long long work in progress perhaps I hope it's in progress but it's a long-term perspective and the short-term outcome of thermal that surrounds us is of course migration our refugee movements that Europe has to come to an understanding with you know has to accommodate some extent is to confront in a way but so aren't you somewhat over optimistic about the role to Western still well I I wouldn't say I'm optimistic but I do think that's one thing you you have to be aware of at the end of the day the European Union is still if you combine European Union either the largest or second largest economic power in the world it's you know it varies with the US and EU and so given your size your economic decisions have ripple effects so I'll give you an example which I mentioned in my essay 25 years ago in with the West and the rest you had a common agricultural policy and as a result a common agricultural policy you subsidized your agricultural products and given your size some of the products went to Africa and undermined African agriculture when you undermine African agriculture you create unemployed African farmers then the unemployed African farmers start walking north so is it wiser for you to not subsidize your agriculture or at least make sure that whatever you do inside Europe doesn't create unemployment in Africa because you will suffer the consequences and as you know the Africans protested but the Africans are weak you are strong you ignored their protests that's why it's very unwise so think in I must we live in a small interdependent global village given the size of the European Union your internal decisions have external consequences so think about the external consequences of your internal actions and then ask yourself well this have a positive long-term impact my security or negative long-term impact on my security that's all I said oh no I mean we could agree upon that's easily no no but I doubt that still is my main worry if I look at northern Africa now or the Middle East who's going to make the critical difference and are these societies I mean the Arab Spring to give their example was of course a sign that all those who thought I was not a democratic ambition in the Arab world were proven that they wrong there is a democratic ambition there is an ambition of civil society in those countries absolutely the question is why doesn't it lead to more stable solutions and outcomes produced by these societies how do you read that the turmoil apart from Western intervention because that is of course part of you explain not the explanation overall yeah if you don't mind I'm gonna say something very politically incorrect okay incorrect okay because you know sometimes you've got to say things that you know should not be said in in polite conversation but have to be said if you want to understand the world and I've actually told this to my Arab friends okay I said the biggest psychological mistake that the Arabs have done is to keep thinking that their future lies in tying copying or replicating the European experience actually if they try to learn from Europe they will fail why they try to learn from Asia they will succeed but unfortunately the Arabs for some strange reason have become colonized mentally much more deeply you know and I know we I I was personally colonized as a child as a child growing up in a British colony I thought I as an Asian an Indian was psychologically inferior to the British no the British were upper class and I was underclass in my lifetime I've seen the psychological confidence of Asians go up to be on par with Europeans and now quite dangerously variations think they're superior and I'm not exaggerating by the way so you can imagine the psychological revolution so today the you know you tell an Asian right to match the top brains in Harvard or Caltech they can do it in fact if you look at the even when you have a race blind admissions policy in any leading educational institution the Asians would come in so this has given the Asians incredible amount of psychological confidence you have the same policy there are apps go down why because they haven't learned from Asia that you've got to learn to take care of yourself and succeed don't look anywhere else and that's why I told you I told you about my first suggestions send the Tunisians and the Algerians send the Moroccans send the Egyptians to Asia but they themself the Arabs don't understand this and I can tell you the Gulf in the Gulf countries one big problem and let's say if you go to let's say if you go to Dubai the only South Asians they encounter are the one doing the construction work the cleaning work and the thing we Arabs are here South Asians are you excuse me the South Asians are running Microsoft the South Asians are running Google the South Asians are running PepsiCo the South Asians are the Dean of the Harvard Business School you Arabs so you can either deep and what is the answer done when you know the answer then is the the Arabs need a fundamental psychological revolution I've been to the psychological revolution they have it and so for them that's that's why I see I'm the until the Arabs come to the realization that they have to learn from Asia they won't change so they might not change well you never know what am i I mean no one no one predicted by the way how fast China and India grow that's right amazing absolutely thank you very much both for exchanging ideas and taking notes from each other which is always a wonderful thing to say that's actually one of the nicer things I think of both of you that you take text books and ideas so very seriously and I think we cannot stress that enough how serious they are like just maiming making a big compliment in a way to fugu Yama that he that he in a way poisoned the Western mind or brain damage to it that's that's a very nice way of taking text and intellectuals very seriously we've been trying to do this this afternoon as well there might be somebody who like to ask or add or say or comment something to what's been said or ask a question through one of the professors around yes please I know in the South China Sea those who think that you're picturing a very optimistic picture of making an optimistic picture of China because they're pretty aggressive against the other countries yeah absolutely right China is not a perfect country now is China an angelic country China is a normal country and all normal countries when they become powerful become more assertive so China has become far more assertive but I wrote a column for the Financial Times saying that's a big difference within two English words assertive aggressive China has become assertive but it hasn't become aggressive you know in the South China Sea that they don't need they're not Islands they're reefs and rocks okay there are 30 or 40 of them you know Philippines has nine or ten Malaysia has got Adria Tom's got 12 China's got eight its whatever right if China wants to tomorrow within 24 hours you can sweep all of them there's nothing there Vietnam or Malaysia can do but take bets with you China won't do it but see but if you visit the India for example and I've been talking to some people in the Indian Army for example there are really obsessed with China's rise and they are definitely of the conviction yeah that the chance that it will remain peaceful yeah from an Indian perspective and of course there has been war between China and India and 62 they are mobilizing now in the border areas because they're not confident that China's assertions will not spill over into something less benign yeah how do you see that let me just finish South China Sea and then because they're two different dynamics here on the South China Sea if you notice by the way the recently South China Sea has not appeared in the newspapers recently that there was as there was a spate in which the Chinese became more assertive and then I wrote several articles pointing out the mistakes that China had made the South China Sea and to my absolute surprise I was invited to Beijing to talk about mistakes that China admitted South China Sea and I always say I never been invited to America to talk about mistakes that America has made in his foreign policy so Chinese have a capacity to learn but there is no doubt that when China becomes a great power the greater it becomes the more assertive will become then you gotta take for granted all great powers are like that the only question is how do you try to maintain some checks on them now India is a completely different issue and you're absolutely right I was in India in January this year two months ago to launch my ASEAN Indian edition of my hearty and book and I was shocked by the level of paranoia about China you captured it very well it's there and I think it's it's a bit unhealthy and it's quite dangerous because it's actually very bad for Asia the two largest economic powers start squabbling with each other so early on in their development but at the same time again I can take it back with any of you let's say 12 months we don't have economic longer maybe no war within China and India a next 12 months I can take back with you no problem because the you know that that border no shots have been fired for over 50 years now that's amazing that's one of the most difficult and tense borders territorial in have been yes yes okay there are all kinds of incidents exactly but they've learnt to manage them and I can tell you that if you talk to the really thoughtful Indian strategic planners they know that will be an absolute mistake for India to be caught in a negative dynamic in China and and I was one article wrote is that I said the next the next great power triangle or be within China India and America and the best place for India to be is in the middle between China and America so then you have their leverage to play just as America used this middle position between Soviet Union and China India can do the same also so that that is something that some of the Indian strategic planners are moving towards but I also want to add that what's unusual about the China India relationship today is that on the one hand there is greater paranoia at the border but the relations within Xi Jinping and Modi are very good I mmm I've read your 2008 book the new Asian hemisphere and since then you've published can Asians think and this love love letter to the to the west and what I'm thinking is how many more books are you planning to write on on the same subject is there any learning curve here I mean this isn't your first time in Holland do you see a learning curve is that a steep one a very good question I should mention that Kenny since ting was actually published in 1998 and 20 years ago before the new Asian Hemisphere in fact I told Hank my publisher that I'd be launching the 20th anniversary edition of the book in Singapore next month in May you're right I mean but there has been a consistent theme in my writings but fortunately or unfortunately so far my predictions have almost of them have come true in terms of anticipating Asia's rise and how it's going to change the world and and how running from the west has helped Asia and so on and so forth for the next book I hope to write this year in my I'm on a nine month sabbatical now he's to write a book on the relationship between the world's number one power which today is America and the world's number one emerging power China so that is a relationship that is going to define the geopolitics of the world for the next two or three decades so that would be my next book I hope to come back here to also watch it you see now within the European Union and within a lot of European countries that there's a lot of concern about Chinese investments in Europe especially when a Chinese state-owned enterprises take over technology companies or even when private Chinese companies over technology companies and some say we should protect those companies and we shouldn't have those sold to Chinese the Chinese whereas others say we should continue to uphold these failures of open trade and open investment how do you look at these investments from China well III I think it's number one all countries should protect their national security we should I mean Singapore sure protects national security you should protect your national security and if you think an investment is going to undermine your national security you should say no their investment clearly but at the same time you also want to make sure that there's some kind of predictability in the process and to create predictability in the process it's important to create multilateral rules on investment and you know this is where multilateral my second M word multilateralism it's very important you create one set of rules and if you can create one set of rules and you apply them to all companies equally then it can work so I actually believe the multilateral ization of the process is a good it's a good way of managing these kinds of investments but you know when you say that talk of national security and I think to some extent the European Union also has experienced this when you give your data to a company like Facebook and Google I grant to you one thing the National Security Agency of the United States cats that data let's be very clear about this the best intelligence collection operation operation the wall is not the Chinese it's not the Russians America's number one and we're so then the question is how do you create rules to ensure that this doesn't so create one set of rules apply to all and here I must say if there's one country in the world that can actually lead in terms of regulation in this area especially it's not China because in China regulatory agencies are controlled by the government it's not America because in America the regulatory industries are captured by the industry so in only in Europe you have regulatory in this the regulatory processes then are not captured either by the government or the private sector you have the independent regulatory agencies so europe european standards should then become the gold standard for the world and and i hope you achieve consensus in europe in these areas i think there's a last question probably over the lady in the white sofa here in the second row thank you china is building a new Silk Road what would you think the effect in the long term would be for for Europe for instance or for Asia itself well I would say that the belt and Lord Initiative in economic terms will be positive for the region and indeed if you leave aside Japan and Japan and India both of whom are as you know quite wary of China and therefore not participating in the Bri in the case of India is for a technical reason because the china-pakistan economic corridor goes to India not Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and so that's the reason India and Japan are not participating but if you look at the rest of Asia virtually all the countries are participating in the Bri initiative and even Singapore which has been very careful in this area two-thirds of the incoming Bri is called belt and Road initiative Bri two-thirds of the incoming Bri investment the China goes through Singapore and one-third the outgoing investment goes to Singapore so we become a major participant in Bri and either process in the process of Bri a lot more infrastructure is going to be built in Asia what I mentioned for Africa roads bridges fast railways ports and so on so forth and that at the end of the day has a positive dynamic but of course it also means that your economy becomes more closely tied with China inevitably and therefore you've got to learn to manage them and think about how you ensure that while you collaborate with China economically you don't at the end of day don't lose your independence and that's going to be a big challenge for all of Chinese neighbors because that's what happens in great powers image but as I gather you if you have a chance read the book by Graham Allison a Harvard professor just came out is called the reason I'm writing a book on us and China is replied to grandma Allison's book his book is called destined for war he thinks the US and China destined for war I don't think they are destined for war and they can be immersive nd but one of the most interesting passages in that book which I quote so often is he says in the book and I the words are something like this he said many Americans who wish that China could be like us be like America he says be careful what you wish for because in 1898 when America was emerging as a great power and when Teddy Roosevelt became Secretary of the Navy he's in the next ten years United States almost went to war with Britain and Germany it colonized a few countries in governments in six countries he said watch out if China behaves like the United States you will have a very turbulent world that is coming so therefore it's in our interest therefore to go back to my very very first point at about Bill Clinton it's very important now that you you in a sense teach the you China how to behave as a number one power and therefore how the number one power behaves today will influence how the next number one peer power behaves tomorrow oh well very small remark but I think it's an important question you raised about multilateralism and you before you said we live in a global village and we need a global village council and fortunately we have one Security Council and you were involved there yourself and you plead I think for good reasons for a reform of the Security Council this has been this would be of course a great symbol of the acknowledgment about what you are writing in the last 20 years now I see the ambivalence of France and Britain not wanting to give up their permanent seat but I also see an ambivalence of China in its relation to other emerging countries like Japan for example I see ambivalence in the African Union who's vetoed some of the reform proposals because it wasn't a guarantee for African countries enough so is there any way in which this which would be a great symbol a hopeful symbol for really people in the world acknowledging that the world order is changing whether this composition of the Security Council will be successful you raise the question also in your last book also in this book but do you see any way forward there beyond what you could imagine you know Japan Brazil sit reduce countries in the security car is there any way of really achieving that in the next say 10 years yeah I must say I'm not sure about 10 years I pray I can tell you for certain that the Security Council come position will have to change sometime because the security council is going to face a big tension between its composition and its credibility if the composition doesn't change if it continues to reflect yesterday's powers then if tomorrow's powers not involve I mean the day let's say India announces that you will no longer abide by the decisions of the UN Security Council the PFI cannot press India it's too big so that's why you got to bring India in side now it's it's as you know it's a very I spent 10 years working on Security Council reform so I know our difficulty subject is but one reason why Security Council reform hasn't happened with my release one reason for every country that wants to come in there's a neighbor that says why not me so if Brazil wants to come come in Argentina says why not me if India ones who come in Pakistan says why not me but the most amusing one was the comment I heard in the United Nations won this one because Germany and Japan were pushing very hard to become permanent members so the Italian ambassador Paulo forces stood up when he says why are you all pushing for Germany and Japan to become permanent members we Italy we lost World War two also the neighbors that's why you know in my home I proposed the 777 formula and that the advantage of the 7/7 formula is that for every for the new members of the Security Council the neighbors become semi-permanent members right Pakistan Argentina get rotated every third so we instead of creating a two-tier Council you create a three-tier Council and I think that would be a better what so that that's one formula that I've suggested but I want to just if you don't mind emphasize one very very critical point about multilateralism the one region in the world that has built the best multilateral institutions by far is the European Union and it actually is very puzzling to me that the European Union members who appreciate multilateralism how do you have not had the courage to stand up to America when America undermines multilateralism because it goes against your interest to do so so I actually think if you ask me why I wrote this book now if this is going to be the multilateral moment in world history and it has to be then the natural leader of this multilateral moment is the most competent region in the world on multilateralism which is a European Union so there is a tremendous leadership opportunity today for the European countries to tell the world okay if we want to start building stronger global Mithila institutions this is how you do it and I know I can tell you one thing as someone who was an ambassador in the UN for 10 years I find conversations and dialogue do make a big difference you know when you talk to each other daily on a face-to-face basis you understand each other he said okay I think we can reach a deal if my understanding is correct your bottom line concerns are ABC ok I'll meet your bottom line Constance ABC now let me tell you about my bottom line contents are de f you accommodate my bottom line are complete what combined let's make a deal I can be done and that's what Marty lateral ISM is about but you see the United States became so you need lateral at the end of the Cold War it losts all these multilateral instincts you you know of course the answer to display is that you cannot live by soft power alone you know scramble for the European Union is how to balance this idea of attracting as a model and exercising influence by being what it is and on the other end of course being engaged in security questions building up an independent capacity to act very difficult balance because on one and this soft power unites Europe that the quest for hard power could tear Europe apart famous question of Kissinger give me a telephone number and I will call Europe to consult where is the capital of Europe certainly not Brussels it's not Berlin where is the capital of Europe and so we did the big question for Europe how in a world where hard power is still look at China wanted to build aircraft carriers looking at the United States look at Brazil look at India they're all engaged in scrambles over hard power so that is I think the haunting question for the European Union but hard power is a sunset industry as I told you in my statistics on war and I can take bets with any of you there'll be no wars between any two major powers because it's completely suicidal because if China and United States go to war with each other United States will both be destroyed and the rest of the world may carry on assuming that nuclear fallout doesn't hit all of us but therefore the the kind of this is exactly what's wrong with our decision-making in our decision-making we're still using 19th century mental concepts in the 21st century and the idea that you can win a war between United States and China is impossible both sides will lose and they know that hard power is a sunset industry sunset industry yeah a sunset and that's a wonderful quote I think I think it I think it's I think it's true and I hope it's true thank you very very much for engaging in conversation and for sharing your insights and I would have to say your wisdom with that with that that's very very very and I've been deeply touched again by your insights in what I think is one of the most successful endeavors in human history the European Union and still is I think if we listen to you you can hear many many things which the Union has to offer I think we cannot stress that enough in this part of the world where some people seem to think that Europe is actually sunset industry I'd like to thank you for joining us in conversation I just like to mention only that this is a series of lectures the body calls the body invites within we're inviting the main intellectuals addressing the sort of the main issues in the world today we've had sign a bell as we from Paris here a few weeks ago we will have mark Leila in the first days of June and it was Kishore Babu Bonnie it's been made possible by our circle of friends the friends of the free word word with the free speech who are private citizens who sustain us to do this lecture series and it's been very very very honoring and extremely kind of you to share insights and wisdom with us dr. Nam Bonnie professor kefir [Applause]

Channel: De Balie

Views: 130,686

Keywords: De, Balie, DeBalie, #debalie, theater, theatre, Leidseplein, Amsterdam, Holland, Nederland, The, Netherlands, NL, Europa, Europe, EU, Euro, E.U., world, wereld, politiek, politics, political, culture, cultuur, art, arts, arte, kunst, kunsten, video, tv, archief, archive, debat, debate, debatten, grote, zaal, discussion, discussie, lezing, lecture, discour, The West, history, future, China, India.Asia, Far east, America, USA, economy, philosophy, European, Europeans

Id: M8ayDH5DuJA

Length: 117min 8sec (7028 seconds)

Published: Sat Apr 14 2018

Reddit Comments

[u/[deleted]]

He doesn't really address "How Asia is rapidly overtaking The West", the time he does talk about it he just points out that economic output of Asian giants has increased at a staggering pace in the last 20 years. I was pretty disappointment by this talk.