Just how crippled was Japan at the end of WWII?

the intent of this video is to address the state of the Japanese military and the country's ability to support and wage war at the time of the atomic bombings we will also look at some results of a study estimating how long Japan would have likely been able to hold out had no atomic bombs been dropped no Russian declaration of war or no U.S invasion in other words was the destruction of Japan's military the submarine blockade the B-29 bombing and Mining efforts sufficient reasons enough for Surrender by the year end of 1945. the video will be adding other considerations to the conventional Pacific Theater end of War narrative this is a part 5 video in the Channel's Atomic bombing series let's start by taking a look at the territories controlled by Japan during World War II this map from a Declassified 1945 Chief of Staff United States Army to the Secretary of War document titled atlas of the world battlefronts and semi-monthly phases outlines of territories controlled by Japan as of July 1st 1943 just two years and one month later the zones of control were reduced to this area the reduction in controlled territories was due to the Dual approach island hopping campaign spearheaded by General McArthur and Admiral Nimitz this map from a 1945 Center of military history United States Army document titled Army biennial reports to the Secretary of War graphically shows the Pacific island hopping pass of MacArthur and Nimitz the islands of Iwo Jima and Okinawa are shown at the ends of these arrows this map lists the 78 U.S Pacific Theater Landings conducted by the U.S military in chronological order including the landing site location and date the goal of this strategy was to progressively move closer to Japan by invading key Islands thereby cutting off the lines of Japanese Communications while bypassing the strongholds like truck and rebal letting the garrisons Wither on the vine this is an image of two captured civilian workers from the bypass island of nauru from a July 1945 United States Pacific Fleet weekly intelligence report they were picked up while they were in transit to the bypassed island of truck due to food shortages many Japanese interrogations have confirmed that the garrisons are starving on these bypass Islands Imperial Japan ruled over a population of half of a billion within their occupied territories at the end of hostilities as discussed in this November in 1945 third report of the Commanding General of the Army Air Forces to the Secretary of War this represents around 20 percent of the Earth's population for reference the German Reich ruled over about 360 million or 13 percent of the world's population during the height of their World War II territory expansion this implies one out of every three humans was living under German or Japanese in World War II the Axis powers were one-third of the way towards World Domination by population these were the german-controlled territories as of May 5th 1945 for reference let's take a look at the status of the Imperial Japanese Navy at War Zan the Pacific Theater was mostly a naval war and it was realized early on that battleships would play a minor role usually adopted for Shore bombardment this was the era of the aircraft carrier this chart from a September 1945 assistant chief of the air staff document titled impact air victory over Japan graphically shows the disposition of the Japanese Fleet at the end of hostilities 13 battleships 25 aircraft carriers and 42 Cruisers had been sunk the surviving floating Japanese Fleet consisted of one Battleship four aircraft carriers and four Cruisers the U.S anti-marine efforts virtually raced the world's third largest naval fleet this chart lists the combat status of each of the surviving nine ships from a 1945 Japanese surrender documents outlining the disposition of the fleet at Ward's end all of the ships shaded had some degree of damage and were also not manned this Cruiser was not classified as damage but no crew was assigned none of the Japanese Capital ships afloat were operational at War's end this chart from a 1945 United States Army forces mid-pacific document titled 2605 Japan lists a quantity of various Japanese Naval vessels not sunk as of December 7 1941 January 1st 1944 January 1st 1945 and August 1st 1945 the 2605 represents the Japanese calendar year of 1945 by July 28 1945 the Japanese Fleet is considered to be written off in contrast to the Japanese Fleet and Deborah status this chart outlines the disposition of the U.S aircraft carrier Fleet from an October 1945 Office of the chief of Naval operations bullets entitled Naval Aviation Victory issue the U.S entered World War II with seven aircraft carriers and one auxiliary carrier for a total of eight at the end of hostilities the U.S had 101 active aircraft carriers of all types the U.S lost 11 aircraft carriers in World War II this chart outlines the U.S Fleet at the end of the war from an appendix of a July 1946 United States strategic bombing survey report titled Japan's struggle to end the war the First Column is the type of Naval vessel the second column is the number of ships deployed against Japan separated by the total number of ships in Navy inventory by the end of July 1945. the third column is the same as the second column except the date is at the end of August 1945. the last column is the table notes at the end of July 1945 the U.S had available 23 battleships 35 Cruisers and 244 destroyers deployed against Japan except for destroyers and submarines the Japanese fleet was no threat to the U.S Navy at War's end the Japanese air arm was also crippled although not to the same extent as their Navy 31 224 Japanese aircraft were destroyed or probably destroyed by Allied air efforts as shown in this table from a 1947 United States strategic bombing survey report titled Air Forces allied with the United States in the war against Japan interesting to see the Mexican Air Force participating in the war against Japan I'm sure there's a story here we're telling this map lists the location and aircraft strength of the Japanese Army and Navy aircraft at the end of hostilities The Legend indicates a type of aircraft total aircraft available equated to 16 397 in Japan proper the Army could field 5651 aircraft and the Navy could field an additional 7074 aircraft for a total of 12 751 up to 12 751 aircraft in inventory 3886 were Fighters only around 9000 Japanese aircraft were considered operationally viable as discussed in this July 1947 United States strategic bombing survey report titled air campaigns of the Pacific War they would have been used for Kamikaze strikes Against The Invasion shipping they were not considered an effective Air Force this was due to Pilot inexperience organizational issues deployment tactics and aircraft limitations these planes were not effective in air-to-air combat they would likely have an effect on The Invasion Fleet though these planes would not be able to counter U.S air power hence this was a factor in the surrender decision Japan surrendered while it possessed a large number of aircraft however it was incapable of effective air combat as discussed in this Japanese Army Navy Air Commands dispositions this situation is equivalent to the last days of the air War over the Reich the Allies gained air superiority Germany was being destroyed having lost the ability to fight back effectively the big difference is that Japan surrendered without a ground invasion Japanese military officials interrogated after the war indicated Japan did not make full use of their air power and this was due to almost all aircraft would be used in Kamikaze suicide strikes except for the new generation Frontline Fighters these planes would be used in short-range Invasion ship attacks a large effort was expended to disperse the remaining Fleet underground there existed a fuel shortage this was due to the Allied blockade because of the lack of fuel the pilot training program was scaled back rapid aircraft deployment capability was diminished Japanese aircraft combat Effectiveness was a hollow shell even before the surrender let's discuss the Japanese pilot proficiency at warsan Japanese Naval pilot experience trend is outlined on this chart from a June 1947 United States strategic bombing survey report titled The Fifth Air Force in the war against Japan the x-axis is a date from December 1941 through August 1945. the left y-axis is a pilot flying experience measured in hours from zero to six hundred the right y-axis is a number of Japanese pilots from zero to six thousand the area plots in the body of the chart represent the distribution of pilot flying hours the line and the body of the chart is the average flying hours where 100 equates to 600 hours couple Trends can be observed in the data the Japanese Naval Pilots experience level decreased as the war progressed due to various engagements as located in these rows by the end of hostilities the average Japanese Naval pilot experience level equated to 14 of the initial pilot experience 14 of 600 is 84 hours of experience in contrast U.S Pilots were entering combat with around 350 hours of training as shown on this chart representing the training hours of the German RAF and U.S Pilots by the end of hostilities 3000 ijn Pilots all had less than 200 hours of experience another 2 800 Naval Pilots were in the Kamikaze training pipeline the trend and pilot experience of the Japanese Army parallel that of the Navy as seen on this pilot experience chart the Japanese Army included around 2100 Pilots with less than 200 hours of experience and another 2600 train kamikaze pilots the combat ineffectiveness of the Japanese bomber interceptors and engaging bombers is highlighted by this statistic during the month of July 1945 only one B-29 bomber was shot down by Japanese bomber Interceptor engaged in air-to-air combat as shown on this image from an August 11 1945 the 20th Air Force document titled air intelligence report let's contrast the Japanese air arm with the state of the U.S air arm this chart from the reference shown earlier outlines the quantity of U.S naval planes during the war at the start of hostilities the U.S had around 5000 aircraft of which two thousand were the combat type by the end of the war the U.S Navy had 40 893 aircraft available for service of which 29 623 were the combat type add another 16 000 U.S Army planes that were deployed in the Pacific at the end of 1945 per the reference shown earlier the U.S had available over 3.4 times the quantity of Japanese aircraft at the end of hostilities the numbers are even more lopsided than this during the first quarter of 1945 U.S Naval aviator shot down 2 800 Japanese aircraft for a loss of 300 Navy planes for a kill ratio over nine to one this lopsided kill ratio can be considered a combat Force multiplier another issue was a far-field deployment of the Japanese troops available to fight off an Allied invasion the troops were spread out amongst the Empire as shown on this Map listing Japanese troop dispositions in the Western Pacific as of January 6 1945 and August 18 1945 Japan proper had a strength of 1.95 million military personnel as of August 18 1945 the rest of the troops could not get back to Japan this is due to the naval blockade and the B-29 mining campaign b-29s deployed sea mines in Japanese harbors and along sea routes the mining program was called operation starvation the mines were deployed in densities like shown in this image this map shows the location of the Minefield surrounding Japan b-29s flew 1528 credited sorties deploying 12053 anti-ship mines 21st bomber command lost 15 bombers during the mining operations this was the first strategic mining blockade campaign in military history Allied submarines also destroyed Japanese shipping this chart from a 1947 joined Army Navy assessment committee report titled Japanese Naval and Merchant shipping losses during World War II by all causes lists a sinking agent of the Japanese military and Merchant Fleet by tonnage U.S submarines were responsible for around half of all the Japanese tunic songs this is around 36 percent of the tonnage songs by German U-boats during World War II the blockade and Mining efforts were strangling Japan's economy this chart from the United States strategic bombing survey report titled the war against Japanese Transportation lists a tonnage of merchant shipping cargo arriving per Japanese Port the first row is the port name the First Column is a month and year the columns in the body of the table are the tons of cargo arriving in the ports listed in July 1945 no cargo was arriving to the ports of Tokyo Yokohama or Nagoya the ports of Osaka and Kobe were only getting 9.5 and 11.2 percent of their Peak 1942 monthly levels we can list these percentages of cargo arriving to the mining map of Japan shown earlier this chart lists the Japanese Imports of bulk Goods of various Commodities during the War years the First Column is the imported commodity the first row is the year of imports the tabular data in the body of the chart is for the metric tons of goods overall only 12 percent of the Commodities were arriving in 1945 as compared to the 1940 levels this chart lists the Japanese tankers afloat serviceable importing oil and sunk as the war progressed it also shows the barrels of imported oil reaching Japan this line represents the dramatic reduction in Japanese tanker tonnage importing oil at war end both the tanker tonnage and quantity of imported oil reaching Japan was less than 10 percent of their Peak values the results of the blockage in mining efforts are summarized by this Japanese Ministry of Transportation and Communications official in this 1946 U.S military document titled interrogation of Japanese industrial military and civilian Leaders of World War II I Believe air power was responsible for destroying Japan's transportation system stoppage of coal shipments affected War Industries and Coastal shipping the mining campaign effectively stopped all shipments to Japan the bombing campaign has also reduced Japanese manufacturing and destroyed cities the B-29 successfully targeted Japanese aircraft production this chart from a 1947 United States strategic bombing survey report titled the Japanese aircraft industry outlines the unit output of aircraft airframes engines and propellers from 1941 through 1945. the trend is clear the Japanese aircraft industry was in dramatic decline as the war progressed past mid-1944. the aim of the bombing campaign was to systematically eliminate Japanese City Urban industrial areas this map from a November 12 1945 U.S Army Air Forces to the Secretary of War document outlines the damage sustained for each Japanese City each Japanese city is listed with its Associated percent Urban core destroyed and listed U.S equivalent City in relative size for example 39.9 percent of Tokyo is listed as destroyed New York would be considered its U.S equivalent 41.8 percent of Hiroshima was destroyed and Seattle was its equivalent U.S city 35.6 percent of Nagasaki was destroyed this chart from an October 1945 document titled summary of 20th Air Force operations outlines the overall destruction of Japan's Urban core by both firebombing and the atomic bombs 64 Japanese cities were firebombed and two were attacked with atomic bombs 163 square miles of urban areas were destroyed by the firebombing attacks whereas 5.55 square miles of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by the atomic bomb attacks the firebomb attacks were 29.5 times more more damaging than the atomic bombs combined they're not even in the same ballpark firebomb attack damage zones of Nagoya and Yokohama 56.3 square miles of Tokyo destroyed by the firebomb attacks 4.7 square miles of the atomic bomb damage in Hiroshima let's put this into context graphically the 4.7 square miles of the atomic bomb destruction of Hiroshima would occupy an area of this size the 1.8 square miles of the atomic bomb destruction at Nagasaki would occupy an area of this size Russia declared one Japan two days after the Hiroshima Mission this was the state of Japan at the end of hostilities on August 15 1945 no sea controlled zones 1.95 million troops in the home Islands the Red Army steamrolling advances in Manchuria after seven days given the state of Japan's military-industrial capacity urban areas transportation and Manufacturing Systems Russia's entry into the war and the atomic bombs how long could the country continue to fight after the war or colonel in the Army Air corps tried to list the factors that caused the defeat of Japan from the reference shown earlier the listed reasons for Japan's defeat and the subjective percentage weighing Factor included loss of air superiority and bombing 35 percent progress of U.S ground advances 28 percent destruction of the Japanese Navy 15 percent Russia's entry into the war 10 atomic bomb 10 percent Germany surrender 2 percent Japan surrendered a little over three months after Germany surrendered the influence of the atomic bomb was also discussed in the reference shown earlier the atomic bombs did not cause the defeat of Japan they likely played a part in the surrender decision though Japan Was Defeated prior to the atomic bombs as they lacked the capacity to make war the influence of the factors on Japan's surrender were summarized from the reference shown earlier interrogation of Japanese officials indicate Japan would have surrendered due to the air attacks alone even if there was no Invasion no Russia declaration of war or no atomic bomb attacks the premise was again documented in the United States strategic bombing survey report shown earlier a comprehensive review of all the data available indicate by December 31st 1945 or maybe two months earlier Japan would have surrendered even if the atomic bombs were not dropped no Russian declaration of war or no U.S invasion did any of the information shown surprise you do you agree with the U.S post-war assessment the continuation of the U.S bombing blockade and Mining campaigns would be sufficient cause for Japanese surrender by year end 1945 at the latest please consider liking and commenting on the video presentation shown or subscribing to the Channel World War II U.S bombers

Channel: WWII US Bombers

Views: 58,962

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Id: AiS52340BKU

Length: 20min 23sec (1223 seconds)

Published: Tue Aug 01 2023