Josh Allen: The CORRECT Choice for NFL MVP (It's Not Particularly Close)

the 2023 NFL MVP award may be one of the most controversial since the award's Inception in 1957 it's no surprise that the MVP is a quarterback driven award 99.9% of the time the most important player on any given team on any given week is the quarterback it's the hardest position to master in professional sports but in a year where for many there isn't a clear-cut number one choice it's been a hot debate topic the oddson favorite right now is Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson it's easy to y his team is the number one seed and in his final game of the regular season he capped off his year with a 321 yd five touchdown performance over the conference rival Miami Dolphins his Lamar ended the MVP debate yeah I think he he took it over it's a wrap it's over what he's done this season has been remarkable and Incredibly valuable but the root of the award is that it goes to the player that's most valuable to their team the player I believe best exemplifies that is Buffalo Bills quarterback joshh Allen but wait Josh Allen's a turnover machine Josh Allen's 22 turnovers is second among all quarterbacks this season and his 18 interceptions are a career-high but those using these stats as the reason why he can't and should not win MVP don't understand the full story in 2018 Patrick Mahomes had 21 turnovers so what are we talking about some even believe these turnovers are the reason as to why the bills won't be able to get over the final hump and win a Super Bowl the last three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks have been in the top five in the league in interceptions all of them throwing double digit picks in each of their seasons and even in one case with Matthew Stafford being tied for the league lead but his interceptions directly cost the bills wins well according to True Media if you combine EPA expected points added lost on interceptions and sacks Josh Allen has the best Mark in the NFL among full-time starters by a decent amount actually to put that another way Josh Allen has lost less value to negative plays than any quarterback in the NFL take weak 18 against the Dolphins for example in a game where Allen had three turnovers he still completed 78.9% of his passes threw for 359 yards with two touchdowns and rushed for 67 yards in a game where he had three turnovers he threw for more than double that of tuat Tua vioa and had 10 more rushing yards than Devon Anan a common argument for why Josh Allen can't be the League's most valuable player is that he's directly cost the bills multiple games not only is that proved wrong by the data I just showed but he's second in the league with four game-winning drives this season not to mention the three more he could have added to that total in the Eagles the Broncos and the Patriots losses he led drives for go-ahead points only for the defense to allow a score and ultimately lose the game this data shows that on dropbacks with 5 minutes or less in the fourth quarter SL overtime Josh Allen is light years ahead of every other quarterback in the NFL when it comes to Performance in the clutch in fact Josh Allen led a fourth quarter drive that tied or took the lead in four of the bills six losses in no games did he lose a fourth quarter lead on a turnover not all MVP candidates can claim the ladder another interesting stat in the Buffalo Bills six losses this season Josh Allen has accounted for 15 touchdowns in the Ravens three losses this season Lamar Jackson has accounted for three ball security is of utmost importance in the NFL there's no question about it but when the good so vastly outweighs the bad B and the bad is not nearly as bad as the surface level stats say it's important to remember that context matters when judging a player's value so let's talk about the good he might not have a 70% completion percentage or 5,000 yards that jump off the page but 4,36 passing yards 44 total touchdowns a 66.5% completion percentage along with 524 rushing yards paint a pretty clear picture of just how dominant he's been total touchdowns he's first passing touchdowns fifth rushing touchdowns first total yards first passing yards fourth rushing yards fourth success rate second EPA per play second total EPA second passing EPA fourth and rushing EPA first and a league leading 4% sack percentage despite being one of the most pressured quarterbacks in the NFL he has more rushing touchdowns than fellow MVP candidate Christian mcaffrey and he's got 15 more total touchdowns than the MVP front runner Lamar Jackson this chart shows the final regular season quarterback grade and efficiency Josh Allen finished number one in overall grade number three in EPA not to mention he was 5- one vers playoff teams this year that's the number one mark in the NFL but even those stats don't tell the entire story this chart from Pro Football Focus shows how often a quarterback's receivers are getting separation and the percentage of throws the quarterback is throwing to an open receiver three names stand out to me you see Lamar Jackson has a high percentage of throws to open receivers but those receivers also create more separation than any other team in in the league meanwhile you can see Mahomes and Allen at the top of this graph and this shows that Mahomes and Allen are finding an open receiver more than any quarterback in the league despite having consistent below average receiver separation and how about the drops when you talk about Patrick Mahomes it's all that we've been able to discuss with his receivers in the detriment that they've had on the Chief season but this data shows what quarterback efficiency would look like if we accounted for dropped passes with the Ravens deciding to sit Lamar Jackson for their week 18 matchup against the Dolphins his final statistics sit at 3,678 passing yards 29 touchdowns a 67.2% completion percentage and 821 rushing yards pretty phenomenal season this is what the last eight NFL MVPs touchdown totals and average statistics have looked like there's only one quarterback whose statistics will even be close to this and that's Josh Allen Allen closed out the regular season leading the NFL in touchdowns total yards was fifth in passing touchdowns and tied an NFL record for rushing touchdowns in a season he also became the first NFL player to have four straight seasons of 40 total touchdowns but the numbers aren't everything and I think the most important thing voters should look at is this MVP caliber numbers aside the bills were 6- six after week 12 they had as low as a 14% chance to make the playoffs but Josh Allen LED them to five straight wins a fourth consecutive division title and the number two seed in the AFC all while having to over comes significant injuries to the defense a significant drop off in production from his number one receiver and an offensive coordinator change in the middle of the Season Allen accounted for 86% of the team's total touchdowns this season he gained over 90% of his teams yards in a Prime Time game on the road against the division rival with the division on the line it simply does not get more valuable than that and there is simply not another player who's been more valuable to their team this season than Josh Allen and while there are other players who have had great Seasons to give an MVP award to whoever has the number one seed would be a disservice to what the award stands for go go [Music] B

Channel: Casey Honigbaum

Views: 76,535

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Id: pFYzWz9xgqk

Length: 7min 18sec (438 seconds)

Published: Fri Jan 12 2024