It happened! Elon Musk LEAKED The Reason Tesla Optimus Release Late! Mass Produce, Battery and Price

musk has promised ambitious goals and delivered countless potentials of Tesla Optimus since its existence under the Bumblebee prototype but on the brink of shipping a few units by 2025 as mus confirm Tesla's humanoid robot seems to have some exaggerated aspects not in line with reality and it is facing seven significant challenges that may lead to a delayed launch musk has acknowledged these downsides and all will be revealed in today's episode of Tesla car World 2025 is an ambitious year for Tesla as the manufacturer confirms the launch of many groundbreaking products while the EV sector is represented by the robo taxi model 225000 or cybertruck wheel drive the release of Tesla Optimus next year sometimes becomes entirely different as this robot represents a new field of Tesla a product to prove Tesla's not just an automaker however according to us the launch of the Optimus robot is facing significant issues that need to be addressed discussing production scale first Tesla's greatest Advantage lies in its ability to manufacture products on a large scale to achieve relatively low prices however you need to know that this applies to the EV field and production of robots is the opposite up to now Optimus is still being built and developed within a small area inside Giga Texas and we are aware that Tesla has no plans related to building a separate facility for Optimus production therefore the quantity of Optimus cannot be large until we have more information about a dedicated facility for it it's easy to see especially looking at this image that the current space for robot development is quite limited the issue doesn't stop at physical facilities as the development of Optimus actually requires expertise in various Fields including mechanical engineering artificial intelligence and computer vision however currently there are still 50 positions related to Optimus manufacturing vacant while this robot's being developed entirely manually musk may find it difficult to accelerate when these positions remain unfilled lastly it's the supply chain for components for the robot in the past must stated that there's no supplier producing the necessary drive units for the robot and Tesla designs them internally indeed Tesla can fully develop one or complete Optimus robots without needing to purchase components from other companies however when it comes to the goal of selling a million Optimus robots each year this is entirely a different matter similar to the 4680 battery cells the progress of the cybertruck depends heavily on the number of 4680 cells that Tesa can make weekly looking at Optimus it integrates too many components that don't share commonalities with Tesla EV is making parallel production quite challenging Tesla drive units sometime constitute only a small part of constructing this humanoid robot therefore when discussing other components Tesla still needs suppliers of course finding quality and efficient Partners can pose challenges and take time Tesla could acquire the entire production process of components from Partners to bring them to the US however remember what we mentioned earlier first they'd need a dedicated Factory to make the robot issue two why is Optimus Hardware always a big opst icle for Tesla although mus confidently stated that Optimus would incorporate all drive units designed by Tesla when asked about his robot onx the CEO of Tesla openly admitted the hardware is actually extremely difficult Optimus Hardware includes 28 different types of actuators and joints all carefully designed to achieve the desired range of motion and function you need to know that replicating natural human movements and behavior for the Optimus robot poses a significant set of Hardware challenges despite significant progress in robot development simulating the complexity of human-like motion Still Remains a challenging task for the manufacturer with less than two years of experience Parts like joints muscles bones and skin of humans are complex and quite diverse and reproducing them in an Optimus robot is by no means easy to achieve Optimal Performance through each upgrade phase Optimist needs to be capable of moving flexibly across various types of terrain and spatial services this requires precise and reliable design of articulation joints s and control systems this capability not only enables robots to operate powerfully but also helps them adapt flexibly to their surrounding environment the flexibility and diversity of human behavior only adds further complexity to this process humans not only possess the ability to adapt to various situations but also perform a wide range of complex activities like walking climbing jumping and many others therefore creating Hardware components capable of simulating and adapting to this diversity poses a significant challenge for scientists and engineers the issue of Tesla's actuator and Joint selection is critical to enable the Tesla bot to perform complex movements and tasks the Tesla bot's Hardware is designed to minimize energy consumption and maximize efficiency by using non retroactive actuators in the fingers the robot can maintain grip without necessary energy expenditure additionally the use of lightweight materials and streamline design help reduce the system's overall energy requirements currently Tesla's reduce the pressure on Hardware development compared to the time of launch but not completely when producing large quantities this challenge is expected to continue issue three why is Tesla Optimus not Superior enough to its competitors now let's talk about the third challenge which goes beyond production lines and that's the challenge posed by a market filled with formidable competition just looking at the US Boston Dynamics boasts 30 years of experience in the field with multiple generations of robot whereas Tesla for instance has only been tentatively involved in this field for around 2 years hence from a technical standpoint there's still some times of disparity the most notable example is the speed of the movement of these robots which currently exhibits a significant Gap Tesla bot is currently confirmed to be6 m a second or 1.34 mph Atlas Boston Dynamic is 2 1/2 m a second or 5 1/2 mes per hour and the world record set is unitary H1 China with 3.3 m/s or 7.38 milph until now achieving stable and independent walking remains one of the primary challenges for the Tesla bot and it just doesn't measure up to the the accomplishments of these other companies indeed walking speed sometimes may not be the deciding factor in determining the effectiveness of a robot as what matters more is what it can accomplish with those dextrous hands however it must be acknowledged that customer choice will always prioritize robots with higher specs and faster agility no one wants to purchase a sluggish and unproductive robot this aspect could be considered the downside of Optimus directly related to its performance Tesla needs to upgrade faster they may not necessarily surpass their competitors but at the very least they shouldn't fall too far behind if they don't want their product to be a dud next year Issue four why does the energy for optimists need to be balanced directly related to the overall efficiency for Optimus the battery power for Tesla robots is indeed crucial it's not a daunting challenge for Tesla as they are renowned for leading in battery packs and consistently investing in them however when it comes to battery packs for robots Tesla needs to tread carefully if they don't want to fail on their first launch unlike conventional electronic devices humanoid mobile robots have numerous drivetrain Servo Motors stepo Motors and high current DC motors all these consume a significant amount of current when loaded even when employing some intelligent tricks the Tesla bot was initially introduced with a 2.3 KW hour battery pack which is not overly robust for Optimist to sustain all day operation but compared to other humanoid robots 2.3 kwatt hours is considered a significant advantage while Optimus was folding a shirt in the lab we noticed the presence of 4680 battery cells which raised is the hypothesis that Tesla may be intending to apply its highest grade battery cells for the first robots or perhaps testing the efficiency of these 4680 cells and robots Tesla's VP moravi previously mentioned that the current quantity of 4680 cells is sufficient for all Tesla products but not all products are suitable for their use the biggest challenge facing Tesla bot right now is how to improve its battery pack without increasing its weight beyond the current 138 lbs this is indeed a formidable challenge especially when ensuring that the robot can still operate efficiently and flexibly even as its weight changes the weight of the battery pack can impact Mobility if it's too heavy while the capacity determines the robot's operating time therefore finding ways to optimize the battery pack without adding weight is a Dawning task for Tesla's team of Engineers and researchers balancing weight and capacity is not as simple as one might think manufacturers must carefully consider the trade-offs between Energy Efficiency and weight When developing new solutions for the Tesla bot issue five why is optimus's utility so limited right now the truth is nobody would purchase a robot if it doesn't offer useful utilities that cater to their needs it's bluntly evident that the current array of features in test showcased by Optimus is just too limited to convince customers to trust it just to comment on the barrier I think the barrier and we talked about this and is likely getting to actually do something useful like we can get it to walk around we can get it to do things but it's like that utility part noted Drew bulino during the January earnings call in our opinion the robot's utility is the biggest deciding factor in and whether or not the Optimus will actually be ordered in large numbers to surpass the cybertruck the utilities it can perform are mainly through the hands and Tesla needs to prioritize this part more until it's sold on the market currently with the Gen 2 version Tesla emphasizes in the video that Optimus Gen 2 is equipped with newly designed 11 doof hands faster and its fingers now feature Taco sensors Tesla demonstrated this new feature by having Optimus Gen 2 transfer an egg from one bin to the next Elon noted on X that many techniques have reached Optimus Gen 2 but the Tesla team has not yet completed it also related to optimus's utility according to Elon Optimus will be able to threat a needle in 2024 that is a crazy goal since even us humans have a hard time threading an needle without the help of some kind of tool if Optimus can achieve such an ambitious goal this year then optimus's utility has certainly done more than what Tesla's announced in its efforts to prevent technology copying when the number of Optimus gadgets is perfect as a homemaker Tesla will effectively establish itself as one of the leading companies in manufacturing robotic gadgets issue six why will optimus's price be the next big hype the next challenge we believe in tackling today is elon's commitment to the $20,000 price point for Optimus elon's confirmed at least twice that this price will be around 20 grand or even lower the first instance was at the AI day 2022 event where he said it it is expected to cost much less than a car I just bring it directly to the right here uh I would say probably less than $220,000 would be my guess and most recently as Tesla's expanding its advertising campaign for their robot ahead of its launch Elon mus continue to share on X that complexity per mass unit is much higher with humanoid robots but I still think it ends up costing less than half a car not only has Elon Musk failed to keep his commitment regarding timelines but he is also consistently Miss promises about the pricing of previous products classic examples include cybertruck and model 3 in the past currently skepticism about the exaggerated claims regarding the sub $30,000 price teag of the model 2 and Optimus is widespread when looking at the average price of a humanoid robot on the market we see it ranging from $80,000 to $300,000 for example despite Boston Dynamics Atlas being developed for decades it still carries a price tag around $150,000 figure AI robots are even more expensive we can't be certain whether Optimus will indeed be sold at the lower price must claim but it's definitely a tremendously challenging task for Tesla to achieve that $20,000 price point if there is price fluctuation Optimus might escalate to at least $80,000 by its launch in 2025 and it could take 3 to four years after that to decrease to $40,000 until Tesla establishes its own robot manufacturing facility the $220,000 target could become a major hurdle potentially lasting a lifetime or even more than a decade for Tesla issue seven how does Tesla need to commit to safety with Optimus manufacturing a general purpose robot like Optimus presents countless challenges that Tesla has to overcome the final hurdle for Optimus is precisely ensuring the safety of the robot and addressing concerns related to its operation Elon Musk has once warned that artificial intelligence AI could be more dangerous than nuclear weapons and committed not to create any technology that looks like the Terminator therefore ensuring the safety of Optimus is always a top priority even after getting sold Tesla will continue to conduct ongoing checks about the operation and quality of their robots in case of misuse they can recall the robot based on agreements in the humanoid robot purchase contract ensuring special safety considerations for children and the elderly when using robots is very important therefore Tesla needs to adjust and control the robots to ensure maximum stability in any role they undertake while Tesla's full self-driving Technologies made significant strides in understanding the world and driving safely the transition to general purpose robots poses a different set of challenges while Tesla EVS must operate with high safety standards due to human behavior on the road human drivers tend to exhibit negative safety limiting behaviors such as cutting too close to other vehicles and taking risks in contrast robots must be absolutely safe and learn to navigate in a world full of irrational human behavior another challenge lies in understanding and effectively handling the unpredictable nature of human behavior humans exhibit many irrational behaviors on the road such as driving too closely to other vehicles or abruptly changing lanes a successful general purpose robot needs to learn to navigate and interact with such irrational Behavior while ensuring smooth Journeys and accident-free operation addressing this challenge requires in-depth training and data collection to fine-tune the robot's Behavior to respond to human actions unlike cars that primarily operate in a two-dimensional World robots like Optimus must navigate a three-dimensional world this fundamental difference adds complexity to the robots perception and planning abilities while cars can rely on bird's eye views to understand the surrounding environment robot need to perceive their environment at a much higher resolution identifying and interacting with objects at various Heights and adapting to countless situations require Advanced planning and perception algorithms Tesla must address this challenge to ensure that optimists can navigate complex environments effortlessly recently Elon Musk once again spoke about some of his expectations for the future of artificial intelligence AI this time in an interview held on X basis musk said that he believes humans will likely have ai that are smarter than than any individual Human by the end of next year and he also believes that the total amount of computer power of AI will surpass that of all humans within five years my guess is that we'll have ai that is smaller than any one human probably by the end of next year the total amount sort of sentient comput of AI I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years Optimus serves as a representative product in Tesla's AI domain and musk seems to hint that this technology will develop rapidly by the end of 2025 however the speed of transforming Optimus into a reality will heavily depend on Tesla's manufacturing capability and progress in robot development although Tesla may not have produced a th000 robots yet they have the potential to do that Tesla must design Hardware possessing both finesse and necessary capabilities while other companies like Boston Dynamics have made significant strides in the field Tesla's striving to achieve similar progress in the next 5 years with Tesla bought using the same computer as Tesla cars it's hoped that Tesla's expertise and large-scale Manufacturing can be leveraged to produce these robots on an impress of scale considering the rapid progress of Optimus it's easy to forget how young this program really is Tesla announced its humanoid robot project on AI day in 2021 and at that time all the company had to showcase for its efforts was a static model illustrating the robot's design goals and a dancing man on stage in a robot suit the dancing robot suit segment of AI Day 2021 was met with equal parts mockery and skepticism up to now Tesla's realized that building a general purpose robot like Optimus requires iter improvements as the company continues to produce more robots they can refine the design and enhance various components such as the drivetrain through its iterative process Tesla aims to develop high performance at reliable and cost- effective Motors achieving stable design and Optimal Performance will be crucial steps towards mass production and widespread adoption finally what do you think about these difficulties of Optimus getting a mass production and what do you expect these Tesla robots to be able to do when officially launched on the market next year we appreciate your thoughts down below hopefully you had the most relaxing feelings after watching our video if you did we humbly ask that you press that like button and join the Tesla car World family by subing to our channel that way you'll never miss out on any of our awesome videos once you hit that Bell icon we certainly value your feedback and your time thanks so much for watching and we'll see you soon until then stay safe have fun take care and God bless [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] a

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Id: QIUbKl69zQI

Length: 18min 33sec (1113 seconds)

Published: Sun Apr 14 2024