Israel vs Iran: A Clash of Military Capabilities | Vantage with Palki Sharma

[Music] hello namaskar this is first post and you're watching a special edition of vantage with me py Sharma [Music] Israel and Iran are s enemies they promised to wipe each other off the face of the the Earth and this is not an exaggeration 2 weeks ago Israel struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria and now Iran has struck back it rained some 300 missiles and drones on Israel the damage was minimal but the message was clear Iran won't take it lying down and even though the word unprecedented is abused in the news media a lot this this one was truly unprecedented Iran has never in the past directly struck Israeli territory I guess the million dollar question then is what happens next will it blow into a bigger war or will cooler heads prevail what are netanyahu's options why did Iran's Ayatollah have to strike who's military force is superior can Joe Biden still stay away from war why is this conflict a headache for India how will it impact you oil prices flights economy we'll cover it all tonight also look at the regional players who stands where and why are Iran and Israel enemies in the first place all this is more coming up in the special edition of Vantage the headlines [Music] first in India Prime Minister Modi releases the bjp's manifesto ahead of Elections the document titled prime minister modi's guarantee focuses on women the youth the poor and the farmers the manifesto promises to implement the uniform civil code and the citizenship Amendment act it also guarantees that India will soon be the third largest economy [Music] Australian police identify the Sydney Mall attacker the asent was a 40-year-old man suffering from mental illness on Saturday he went on a stabbing Rampage at a shopping center killing six people and injuring many others he was shot dead by a police officer at the sea Venezuela outraged over a new oil lease of Guyana karakas rejects the concession that gyana has given the US oil firm Exon Mobile in 2015 oil was discovered in these disputed Waters since then the long-standing dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has only intensified Solomon Islands prepares for polls under China Shadow the archipelago is caught in a tussle between China and the West its current prime minister has vowed to strengthen bonds with Beijing if reelected voting will take place on the 17th of April and at least 19 people killed in the landslide in central Indonesia several others are missing torrential rains triggered this landslide slide in the last few months the region has been hit by several landslides a number of Iranian missiles fell inside Israeli territory causing minor damage [Music] it's one of the worst feelings ever knowing something will happen but not knowing when Israel's experienced that feeling for most of last week the Iranian military was poised to strike them but no one knew when when late last night it happened hundreds of projectiles were fired towards Israel we're talking about a cocktail of weapons Israel counted more than 300 of them 170 drones 30 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles they were fired from different locations from Iran from Syria from Iraq and from Yemen but Israel was ready for it you see this was a widely expected attack a tit fortat response last week Israel had struck Iran's Embassy in Syria they ended up killing top Iranian commanders so Iran was always going to respond which is why Israel and its allies were ready they say around 99% of the projectiles were shot down some over the Iraqi and Syrian airspace the rest over Israel it filled the night sky with explosions take a look [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Music] [Applause] [Music] now 300 is a big number but these drones and missiles caused very little damage around 12 people were injured and one girl was killed plus a military base in southern Israel was slightly damaged I guess the obvious question is how it was a joint effort by Israel's allies especially the US and the UK both countries had moved in important assets to the region the US and the UK so when Iran attacked they were ready fighter jets took off from undisclosed bases in the region they shot down most of the drones before they reached the target even Jordan took down a few projectiles of course some did make it to Israel but those were shot down by the air defense system and there are many layers to it but this time two of them were key the Aros system which shoots down long range missiles and the Iron Dome which shoots down short range Rockets both use the same concept track a projectile fire ammunition at it and blow it up in the sky it's costly but clearly effective but good defense was not the only reason for the limited damage Iran's attack was half-hearted they wanted to create a spectacle they wanted to appease their domestic audience but damage perhaps was not their goal Iran's foreign minister Minister has admitted this he says thean had informed the us about the nature of its attacks we announced to the White House in a message this morning that our operations will be limited and minimal with the aim of legitimate defense and Punishment of the Israeli regime which brings us to the reactions the world is understandably worried because damage or not this attack is unprecedented in the past Iran has used proxies to strike Israel like hisbah and Hamas they have never used their own military this this is the first direct Iranian attack on Israel which makes it very significant that was also the that was also in fact reflected in the ground reactions Iranians were over the moon they took out bike rallies and marches in thran and they called it a proud and happy [Music] moment we hope this attack continues to the point that Israel is [Applause] destroyed we will never allow anyone to violate Iranian territory any enemy contemplating aggression against Iran will meet the same fate as [Applause] Israel so celebrations in Iran over in Israel things were more subdued some said they were used to the rocket and missile barrage others were more wary actually all heard about the attack of the of Iran but uh we're not afraid because we went to to celebrate birthday of our one of our friends and we already got used to being attacked for the last 6 [Music] months the situation is really frightening because we're afraid of what happens and all of uh bombing and aircraft that are coming so what next Iran says the operation is over and they clearly mean it if they wanted escalation this attack would have looked very different plus life is slowly returning to normal last night most countries in the region had shut their airspace but now they're back up and running even Israel has reopened its airspace having said that the danger has not passed far from it a lot depends on Benin Netanyahu his War cabinet has been asked to decide on a response the question is what will they choose more escalation or a truce Israel's own allies do not want an escalation they have condemned Iran's missile attack but they may not support retaliation look at the reaction so far Joe Biden had a phone call with Netanyahu he called Iran's attack Brazen he also promised Ironclad support for Israel UK prime minister Rishi sonak released a similar statement he called Iran's attack re less he also accused Teran of sowing chaos in the region so did German Chancellor Olaf Schulz he said the attack was unjustifiable and irresponsible so the West is firmly behind Israel maybe not on escalating the conflict but definitely on condemning Iran if this attack had been successful The Fallout for regional stability would be hard to overstate and we stand by the security of Israel and The Wider region which is of course important for us security here at home too this is an unjustifiable attack this is a serious escalation of the situation and it is in no way acceptable understandable or tolerable fortunately the Israeli Air Defense Forces largely succeeded in fending off this attack supported by the USA and partners also in the Arab world now we come to the other Camp Russia and China two countries that have closed relations with Iran Russia has expressed concern over the attack they have advised restraint but the statement also mentions Israel strike on the Iranian consulate so a bit of a balancing act there same with China they too have called for restraint but Beijing says it is a spillover of the Gaza conflict so China is saying fix Gaza first the rest will fall in place and what about India New Delhi has called for deescalation and restraint it has advised a return to diplomacy much like Arab Nations Saudi Arabia wants the UN security to take the lead it has asked Israel and Iran to avoid war but will they listen the next few hours will be very important Israel has requested a meeting of the United Nations security Council it will be convening in a few hours from now meanwhile Biden has gathered the G7 leaders if they together put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu they can prevent an escalation perhaps of course A minor Fallout is still expected Israel has already struck Eastern Lebanon they're going out after Iran's proxy the hisbah but that conflict has not boiled over yet whether it does or not depends on Israel's next move now before we discuss what happens next first let's tell you how this attack took shape what happened behind the scenes what were Iran's calculations who did they speak to and what kind of support did they have now this enmity is a very very old story but the latest episode began exactly 2 weeks ago when the Israelis struck the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Iran immediately vowed to take revenge this failure of the Israeli regime in Gaza will definitely continue as well as these desperate efforts like what they did in Syria of course they will be slapped for this action now the question was was what would be the scale of the attack or in the ayatollah's words how hard would the slap be Iran had a lot to consider the last thing they can afford right now is a direct war with Israel at the same time they couldn't have done nothing and we'll tell you why in a bit so on camera Iranian officials started talking tough and behind the scenes they began gaming the scenarios and their assessment was this Netanyahu was trying to pull them into a wider regional conflict so they reached out to other to other Regional players like Oman Iran contacted Oman and asked them to deliver some messages to the us and this is not a first Oman has often acted as a go between for the Iranians and the Americans so last Sunday the Iranian foreign minister traveled to Oman and he apparently delivered two clear messages number one Iran will respond to Israel's attack in a quote unquote controlled and non- escalatory way and number two Iran will deploy its proxies for the mission and that's exactly what they did the missiles and drones were launched from at least four different countries like we told you Iran Iraq Syria and Yemen so in a way the US had prior warning from Iran and this communication was supposed to be a secret but the story got out the White House faced questions it was asked if the Iranians had made contact and Biden's press secretary did not deny it has Iran been in touch via intermediaries with Washington to indicate that when it responds to Israel's attack on on its Embassy on its Syrian Embassy that it will not escalate we've been also very clear I'm not going to get into public back and forth we warn Iran not to use uh this attack as a pretext to escalate further in the region or attack us facilities or person Personnel I'm going to be super mindful not to to speak beyond that from here or elaborate further so neither confirmation nor denial when you connect the dots this is what you get the inputs from tan could be shaping Washington's response yesterday just hours before the Iranian strikes Joe Biden spoke with Benin Netanyahu the US president promis to help Israel defend itself but if Israel chooses to retaliate the Americans won't support that operation that's what Biden is said to have told Netanyahu so while he's calling the support to Israel Ironclad he also wants to make it conditional Washington also expects Israeli officials to inform them before launching any operation again the question is will nth pay heed to this or will he launch a Counterattack now I know Grand statements never help but this one is pretty spot-on the immediate future of West Asia depends on one man Benjamin Netanyahu the prime minister of Israel this situation is tailor made for him it's a chance to take the focus away from Gaza it's also a chance to fulfill his career-long go goal to strike deep inside Iran to take out their strategic assets including their nuclear sites just one problem though his allies are not on board both the US and the UK have urged deescalation like I said Biden has reportedly made his stand clear to nanahu if you attack Iran we will not help but where does that leave the prime minister of Israel what options does he have in public Netanyahu is defiant he says Israel is ready for all scenarios both defensive and offensive citizens of Israel in recent years and especially in recent weeks Israel has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran our defensive systems are deployed we are ready for any scenario both defensively and offensively the state of Israel is strong the IDF is strong the public is strong so he's not ruled out retaliation and you can see why netanyahu's popularity has hit rock bottom the only only thing keeping him in office is the Gaza War but he's running out of places to attack Israel has reached the southernmost point of Gaza so he's got to wind up the War sooner or later which means he may have to step down and in that context a conflict with Iran would help him it would extend his time in office but the trade-off would be huge Israel's last attack was an was on Iranian consulate so Tan's response was lukewarm borderline performative but what if Israel strikes Iranian cities and Military targets chances are the response won't be Luka if the Zionist regime takes any action against the Islamic Republic whether on our soil or in places belonging to us in Syria or elsewhere our next operation will be much larger so what options does Netanyahu have we can think of three of them the first is to call it Square Israel's First Strike killed top Iranian commanders compared to that Iran did not cause much damage so Netanyahu can leave it at that a score of 1-1 the second option is to Target Iranian proxies now we've already seen attacks on the hisbah in in Lebanon Israel can keep doing that Iran has many assets and Military sites in the region like in Syria in Iraq and Yemen Israel could choose to Target them instead it's relatively low risk and finally option number three hit back inside Iran this would likely lead to a cycle of reprisals in the worst case even War so will benan Netanyahu risk it logic says he won't but in the last 6 months we've not seen a lot of display of that logic so we've also seen a lot of confusing decisions some of which make no strategic sense so a lot depends on netanyahu's allies first of all how much pressure can the West put on him will they threaten to cut off military aid same with Israel's neighbors a wider War would affect all of them it would disrupt oil trade via the straight of hormos and Iran has always threatened to close it and this would give them the perfect excuse to do it around 30% 30 30% of global oil trade passes via this route if Iran shuts it West Asia will suffer that's enough reason for them to urge deescalation I guess it's all about appetite and ambition Netanyahu has enough reasons to claim a success he took out top Iranian commanders he repelled a massive Iranian attack plus he red rallied his Western allies for most people that would be a win but nanahu does not think like that he's not just focused on Israel's strategic goals he's also focused on his political career which is why this is a dangerous moment Israel's war cabinet is meeting to discuss the way for forward there are three members in this cabinet one of them is Benny Gans he's a former Defense Minister also a rival of Netanyahu Gans says Israel will respond at the right time in the face of the Iranian threat we will build a regional Coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us and most importantly faced with the desire of our enemies to harm us we will continue to unite and become stronger chances are there will be some sort of response the only question is how far will it go now let's look at the other side and that is Iran and their leader ayat Ali K is Iran's Grand Ayatollah that's a religious title it makes him the ultimate Authority in Theocratic Iran he's the country's top leader 84 years old will be 85 this week he's been in power since 1989 making him one of the longest serving leaders in West Asia he holds constitutional authority over the Judiciary the Army the Revolutionary guard and the state media so the buck stops with this man and he is definitely the one who sanctioned the attack on Israel he cleared it last week he had promised that Israel would be quote unquote slapped and now he claims to have delivered to the great joy of many in Iran take a look at this [Applause] [Applause] we were extremely happy with this action of the irgc and in fact we felt better after a long time this was a help and companionship with the oppressed people of Gaza and the West Bank this sadness and anger remained in the hearts of all of us and we were always waiting for this Revenge to be carried out and for the Israelis to be punished for their brutality and we couldn't believe it when the news came last night that Banner with the missile you see it is up in thran's Palestine Square it has a message in both Farsi and Hebrew in Farsi or Persian it says the next lap will be harder in Hebrew it says your next mistake will be the end of your state dual messaging and that's not a coincidence it explains why the people of Iran are Overjoyed even though Israel seems relatively unharmed Israel says the so-called slap was ineffective they say 99% of Iran's missiles and drones were shot down but that's not what the people in Iran are hearing the statement announced the launch of missiles and drones to Targets in occupied lands that successfully hit the targets he's saying they successfully hit the targets the irgc that's Iran's Islamic revolutionary guard core issued a statement they like a parallel military body their job is to defend Iran from external and internal threats and they report to the Ayatollah now this body the irgc says it successfully hit Targets in Israel and that's what the Iranian State media is now reporting so the people in Iran are being told that quote unquote heavy blows have been dealt to the Israelis especially the air base in the Nev desert the nevatim air base the base that was used to launch the air strikes on the Iranian Consulate in Syria and Israel admits that some missiles did hit this base but they say it was minor infrastructure damage in fact the Israelis even released this footage later purportedly showing the base still in use but of course the people in Iran do not see any of this they saw the missiles going towards Israel their news channels are apparently quoting the special forces the irgc saying that heavy blows were dealt to Israel and so the people in Iran think that aah K has given a resounding response to the Israelis and they were celebrating [Music] [Music] brings us to K's game plan he could not afford to look weak a few years back the Americans killed kasim suani last week the Israelis killed Iranian generals the regime in tan was already on the back foot domestically the economy is in a shambles their currency the real has H an alltime low inflation is touching 50% we've seen public protests in the last few years in 2022 there was the anti-h hijab protest where the people fought back against the Iranian regime and it was only quelled by Brute Force given this backdrop and now the attack on their Consulate in Syria K could not afford to look weak he could not AFF for the people of Iran or for the Iranian proxies outside to think that the regime cannot stand up to Israel so in some ways last night's attack was K's only option of course that does not make it right and it will have its own set of consequences K may have stamped out some domestic Embers of resentment but he may have just started a fire around the world and speaking of this fire let's turn to the US where president Jo Biden is in a fix here's how Washington would see this strike Iran America's biggest problem in West Asia has openly attacked America's closest friend in the region the Iran has crossed a red line it never dared to before and it happened under Biden's watch he should be sweating at the very thought of having to explain this when Biden heard about the attack he rushed back to the White House he had a call with Netanyahu and then issued a statement and the last two lines of the statement are the ones to note Biden said his support for Israel was Ironclad and that the United States will stand with the people of Israel and support their defense against these threats from Iran it sounds like the usual token statement but maybe the word defense should be looked at closely because apparently that's as far as Biden is willing to go during the he reportedly said that the Iranian attack had been foiled and that Netanyahu should quote unquote take the win this doesn't mean Biden has washed his hands off the matter he is planning a diplomatic offensive along with the G7 and the US will of course back Israel at the United Nations security Council meet that has been called today but that doesn't really give the same impact does it Iran fired missiles Biden will wag his finger and fire sanctions it doesn't make him look look too tough even if it may be the wiser course of action to prevent an allout war in West Asia but this defensive strategy leaves Biden open to political attacks at home which by the way have already begun listen to this before going any further I want to say God Bless the people of Israel they're under attack right now that's that's because we show great weakness this would not happen the weakness that we've shown it's unbelievable and it would not happened if we were in office you know that they know that everybody knows that Trump has made his move he has blamed the attack on Biden's weakness and not just last night's attack Trump has blamed everything else on Joe Biden too it wasn't only Putin it was Putin and plenty of other things that Biden got wrong with Putin Ukraine would have never happened Israel attack both October 7th and today would have never happened it's impossible to accurately predict what could have happened but Trump doesn't need to be accurate he just needs to undermine the people's confidence in Biden which will probably be easy after this latest mess it leaves Biden in an unenviable position having to decide what next as much as Biden would like to stay on the defense it's not just his call to make Netanyahu has been attacked he of all people will want to respond he has a tough guy reputation to uphold and he might throw Biden under the bus to do it a US senator Tim Kain says Biden is wary of Netanyahu and Biden apparently knows that he was quote unquote played by the Israeli PM this was during the early months of the Gaza War which explains his change in stance remember Biden flew down to Israel when the October 7th attack took place he hugged Netanyahu as soon as he landed and he said the US would always be by Israel's side but that equation has changed in recent weeks the civilian death toll was mounting the and Israel was threatening to attack Rafa in Gaza the last City in Gaza that is that has been left standing where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are taking Refuge so Biden issued a threat the US Aid to Israel would be conditional if Netanyahu did not do more to protect civilians it looked like Biden had run out of patience the shift also suited his politics with the American Muslim V voters so he seemed ready to reign in Ben nanahu but a lot has changed now what happens next what happens if Netanyahu attacks Iran it will begin a new cycle of violence and eye for an eye scenario until the entirety of West Asia is on fire will Joe Biden allow Israel to burn down probably not Israel is America's closest Ally Biden will not be able to sit back and watch he either abandons Israel or joins it and whatever comes next the middle ground it seems is gone and this has put Biden in a terrible position he doesn't really have the freedom to choose his next move now let's look at the worst case scenario because that's what you do in situations like this look at all possibilities hoping it doesn't come to the worst what would a full-blown war between Iran and Israel look like how do they compare militarily their capabilities are very different Israel is one of west Asia's most powerful militaries and Iran is one of the largest whose force is superior what kind of fire power do they have and who has a better shot at winning our next report tells [Music] you the drum beats of War are sounding in West Asia yet again Israel and Iran are in the middle of an escalating crisis at the heart of it lies a crucial question if the worst case scenario were to unfold who will come out on top Israel versus Iran whose military might has the upper hand on the surface the numbers favor Iran Iran has a huge population at least in comparison to Israel Iran is home to about 89 million people as compared to Israel's population of about 10 million so on paper it's Advantage Iran particularly when it comes to the size of its military the Iranian Armed Forces are among the largest in West Asia with at least 580,000 active duty personnel and 200,000 trained Reserve Personnel how big is Israel's military it has about 170,000 active personnel and 465,000 reservists so Iran's active Personnel is more than Thrice that of Israel's it also has a larger Navy more tanks and armored vehicles and greater access to fuel so far Iran seems to have the upper hand but there is a catch raw data alone doesn't tell you the whole story quantitative factors play a role yes but so do qualitative ones like training and advancement of technology and the nation that comes out on top here is the one with more money which is Israel Iran has a GDP of $413 billion while Israel's GDP stands at $539 billion this affects their respective military budgets reportedly Iran's is at $10 billion whereas Israel has a military budget of $24.4 billion that's almost 2.5 times higher but the biggest advantage that Israel has is that its military is backed by the United States America provides Israel with a $3.8 billion annual military assistance this has allowed Israel to have more advanced Weaponry with Superior Force Readiness making it one of west Asia's most powerful militaries let's see how this plays out on land Water and Air in terms of tank force like the zulfiker series and the karar MPT Iran builds its own tanks usually they are based on outdated designs then there are t-72s t-54s and t-55s which are Iranian copies and considered inferior to the Israeli defense tanks like the marava Mark 4 which is one of the best armored tanks in the game now let's look at the Navy Iran's Navy is larger than Israel's but not as robust Israel's Navy has access to American and European suppliers and their Advanced missiles and vessels now when it comes to air power contrary to the numbers Trend Israel's force is larger than Iran's its Arsenal includes 612 aircraft to Iran's 551 its primary fighting force consists of at least 66 f-15s 175 F16 and 27 F35 stealth Fighters it's also regarded as one of the best in the world has about 63 f4s and 26 f14s in comparison Iran's air Arsenal is believed to be aging rapidly so Israel has superior quality which is why Iran is using another tactic on the battlefield deploying weapons in large quantities Iran has a substantial inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles they are capable of striking targets about 2,000 km away this puts Israel well within its range and during the weekends attack tan launched dozens of explosive Laden drones these are Iran's Pride they are unmanned aerial Vehicles believed to be Shah heads meaning witness in Farsi these are long range drones which have been called the AK-47s of tan because they are cheap mass-produced and deadly plus Iran is not without allies one of its most important is the Lebanese militia Hezbollah according to Israeli intelligence hezbollah's Arsenal contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles including long range and precision guided missiles but then again conventional forces aren't the only ones that can be used on a battlefield Israel is believed to possess the ability to launch nuclear strikes from Land Air and sea Israel has never openly confirmed or denied its possession of new nuclear weapons so Iran has the numbers Israel has the technology while you can't predict a clear winner if this conflict escalates any further there's no doubt over who will be the Biggest Loser the already rest of region and its millions of people and where does India feature in this conflict in the middle again both Israel and Iran are very important partners for India and has all kinds of Investments there both political and economic so picking a side is virtually impossible and New Delhi statement reflects this let me quote what the statement from India says we are seriously concerned at the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran we call for immediate deescalation exercise of restraint stepping back from violence and return to the path of diplomacy that's what the Indian statement says no blame game no criticism no taking sides India is basically asking both countries to deescalate and we'll get to the Strategic considerations in a bit but first India has a more immedate concern on Saturday Iran captured a ship near the straight of hormos it's called the MSC Aries Reports say the ship is linked to an Israeli businessman so Iran seized it around 25 people are on board the vessel 17 of them are Indian so getting them released is a big priority Indian officials have apparently reached reached out to Iran they're trying to get the sailors released which brings us to the larger issue how will India navigate this conflict if it's a short one there isn't much to do but what if Israel hits back what if things escalate into a bigger conflict then India faces some tough choices let's look at three key factors trade relations political relations and strategic relations you start with trade the India Israel trade is around $7.5 billion what about the India Iran trade it's around $2.5 billion but there's a key difference here Iran is sanctioned by Western countries so India buys very little oil from Iran before the sanctions trade was much higher at about $13 billion in 2015 let's look at what this trade is made up of Israel sells a lot of military equipment to India in fact New Delhi is Israel's top buyer at the same time Iran is an oil giant if the sanctions are lifted the energy trade can flourish again so oil and weapons two very important items that India buys from these two countries which brings us to the second Factor political relations Prime Minister Modi has invested a lot in his relationship with Israel in fact he deated it until then India could not separate Israel and Palestine both relations were interl but Modi decided to separate them in 2017 he went to Israel and since then Israel has become a key partner of India with Iran it's been a different trajectory there are cultural and linguistic ties long-standing political exchanges and even shared history there have been some uncomfortable statements and remarks especially on Kashmir but the relationship has largely been stable and that brings us to the final Factor the Strategic relations India sees Israel as a gateway to Europe last year at the G20 Summit India announced a new economic Corridor it would link India to Europe via Israel plus both countries are a part of a political grouping called the i2u2 India Israel the US and the UAE hence i2u2 it's also called the West Asian Squad now with Iran India has other shared interests for starters Afghanistan both India and Iran support the rights of Afghan minorities they also oppose terror camps in Afghanistan and like Israel India sees Iran as a Gateway not to Europe but to Central Asia New Delhi is building a trading terminal in southeas at the Port of chabahar it is India's first ever overseas Port investment and how much is it worth almost $ 85 million the plan is to use chabahar to access Afghanistan and Central Asia this way India can s step Pakistan so long story short both countries are very important to India there's a lot of money and strategic depth at stake which is why taking sides won't be easy for New Delhi if the fighting escalates India will also have to think about its citiz there are 18,000 Indians living in Israel also between 5,000 10,000 Indians in Iran if you add the wi Gulf region a lot more up to 9 million Indians live in this region and don't forget the energy trade around 4 40% of India's oil comes from West Asia plus 70% of its gas so a wider War would be a political and economic nightmare for India hence New Delhi is called for deescalation you've seen a lot of of balancing acts from India recently especially in Ukraine but if this war drags on it could be India's toughest challenge yet in the last two years our world has seen major Wars in 2022 it began with the Russia Ukraine war in 2023 that's last year Hamas terrorists attacked Israel and Israel began a military operation in Gaza which is yet to end now Israel and Iran are engaged in a direct Faceoff these conflicts impact not just the countries involved but the whole world they hurt the global economy and disrupt Supply chains it's no wonder that today's events have triggered more uncertainty how will Iran's attack impact oil prices will the global markets be hit what about travel and trade disruptions our next report tells you all that you need to know Iran's attack on Israel May reshape the regional Dynamics but in the immediate future escalation of tensions in West Asia threatens to an already fragile global economy oil the Region's most important export remains vulnerable Iran's attack could lead to a spike in prices already the market for oil is volatile the price of one barrel is inching closer to $100 if there is a disruption in supplies for a long period the daily supply of crude could shrink by up to 8 million barrels a day how would the shortage impact the the price the cost of one barrel of oil could jump up to as much as $140 that's troubling news for countries like India India Imports 85% of its crude needs since late March prices have jumped to a 4month high putting pressure on the margins of Indian manufacturers they cut fuel prices just last month if the global prices don't stabilize soon sustaining the lower prices may prove to be challenging stock market investors are wary too on Sunday West Asian markets dipped after the Iranian attacks stocks in Saudi Arabia Qatar and Israel dipped the losses were relatively minor American markets too are under pressure on Friday the S&P 500 closed in the red investors blamed geopolitical tensions as the reason fears of a wider War could make them more nervous cryptocurrency also witnessed wild fluctuations when Iran attacked Israel Bitcoin fell sharply by 9% however the token rebounded later in the day but if Israel escalates bigger losses could be in store in that case the aviation sector May face the most significant repercussions already a number of Airlines have either called off flights or rerouted their planes this includes names like Quantas Airways Singapore Airlines Lanza Kuwait Airways and swiss International India's biggest airlines are forced to take measures too flare India vistara and indigo have suspended their flights to tan they're also avoiding the Iranian airspace so if you have a flight scheduled soon chances are it may take longer for you to reach your destination or Worse your flight may be canceled altogether but it's not a crisis for everyone investors in Gold are cheering the global uncertainty has led to a surge in Gold purchases the yellow metal has gained by 133% already touching a price record of $2,400 for an ounce briefly however The Strife in West Asia will give little Comfort to economists already the IMF is worried about this year's Outlook the scars of the pandemics are still with us the global output loss since 2020 is around $ 33.3 trillion doar with the cost disproportionately falling on the most vulnerable countries and we see a growing Divergence within and across country groups since 20120 our world has faced a slew of Crisis from the pandemic to the many wars for the well-being of the global economy it is critical that cooler heads prevail now let's zoom in a bit and take a closer look at the region in direct firing range the other major players in West Asia and I must say here that this region has never been a beacon of stability but last night's attack makes it even more of a Tinder Box the Iranian missiles and drones flew over multiple countries before reaching Israel plus Iran's proxies joined the attack we told you about them like the hisbah it's a group based in Lebanon and Lebanon is major player number one it has always been caught in Israel's conflicts in fact Israel had occupied the southern part of Lebanon from 1985 to 2000 for almost 15 years so if the Iran Israel fight escalates Lebanon will likely get caught in the war and they will side with Iran next we have Syria the official owners of the Golan Heights region occupied by Israel and major player number two Syria is another country close to Iran their president is Bashar alassad and he's still in power only thanks to thean they helped him win a civil war they're also armed Iran backed groups in Syria like smaller versions of the hisbah so if it comes to it Syria will side with Iran then there's major player number three Iraq and this is a bit of a unique case on the one hand Iraq has fought a major war against Iran the first Gulf War in the 1980s but since then the countries have come together Iraq's prime minister is even considered pro-iranian his path the to the top job was helped by pro-iran political parties Iran Iraq in fact also has an Iraq many Iran iran-backed militias on its soil they are in Iraq so in the event of a war even if Iraq stays out the government stays out these militias will join Iran and speaking of Iranian proxies there are also some huthis in Yemen the group does not just attack ships in the Red Sea they're capable of reaching Israel as well thanks to Iran made drones that The huis Have and that makes Yemen major player number four so we have Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen directly or indirectly these countries will be on Iran's side but they aren't the only ones with skin in the game you also have the Arab states we'll start with with Israel's neighbor Jordan major player number five Jordan is home to US military bases it is also home to millions of Palestinians Jordan is across the border from Israel so that is where many Palestinian refugees took shelter after their displacement during the creation of Israel Millions still live there and Jordan does not want any more so it always tries to deescalate tensions it is at the Forefront of peace talks and it also helped shoot down Iranian weapons last night Jordan wants peace and calm to return and an end to the influx of refugees which brings us to major player number six the leader of the Arab and the Muslim world and that's Saudi Arabia Iran and Saudi Arabia had been Rivals for decades the two power centers in West Asia but they buried the hatchet last year they normalized ties Riyad would not want to resume hostility so expect the kingdom to try and calm things down in fact look at Saudi Arabia's statement it has called on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and spare the region and its people from the dangers of War basically they're telling everyone to calm down the other Arab states are likely to follow riyad's lead and considering their ties with the US the Arab pressure may be key to keeping the peace making Saudi Arabia the biggest Regional player to watch right now after Regional Players let's come back to the protagonist Israel and Iran why are they at War why have they been fighting proxy battles for decades how did they go from being close allies to Arch Rivals that's right until the 1970s Iran and Israel were close allies our next report tells you what changed and why the year was 1948 Israel was created turkey became the first Muslim country to recognize the Jewish state but can you guess who was the second surprisingly Iran which was home to the biggest Jewish community in West Asia at the time relations were anything but hostile between Iran and Israel in fact the two shared close ties they had become allies under the last sha Muhammad Resa pavi according to reports Israel imported 40% of its oil from Iran in exchange for agricultural produce weapons and technology so how did the two Nations go from being allies to enemies the shift happened in 1979 this was the year of the Islamic revolution when Iran toppled the Sha a new Islamic Republic of Iran was born this swiftly ended the friendship between the two states the Ayatollah or the Supreme leaders took charge of Iran and all of them considered Israel to be Enemy Number One also the illegal occupiers of Jerusalem after the 1979 Revolution tan cut all ties with Israel citizens could no longer travel there flight routs were cancelled the Israeli Embassy in tan was transformed into the Palestinian Embassy in turn Israel refused to recognize the new Islamic Republic and this was only the beginning over the decades the two Nations have sought to grow their influence across the region as their Ambitions clashed their enemity grew now Iran supports groups that view Israel as a major enemy these armed groups and militias are spread across Lebanon Syria Iraq and Yemen the most important among them is Hezbollah which is backed by Iran's Elite Islamic revolutionary guard core Israel has returned the favor so to speak by backing groups that oppose Iran tan designates many of these as terrorist organizations like the mujahidin a Europe based organization and Kurdish armed groups in Iraqi Kurdistan the two Nations have fought proxy wars for decades now they have also carried out a long series of attacks on each other this Shadow War has gone on both within and outside their soils for instance Israel has vowed to never let Iran develop a nuclear bomb tahan's nuclear program has been a sight of a number of attacks Israel has never accepted responsibility for these strikes meanwhile Iran has also targeted several Israeli interests for instance in 2012 a series of attacks were launched against Israeli Targets in Georgia India and Thailand Israel accused tahan but Iran denied the charges to no one's surprise then again in 2021 an Israeli owned vehicle carrier was hit by an explosion it was sailing off the coast of Oman tan was blamed again but it denied any involvement Iran and Israel went from allies to sworn enemies and now for the first time almost after half a century of being fors Iran has directly attacked Israel the road to reconciliation has never seemed father and with that it is a wrap on the special edition of Vantage we'll keep tracking all the updates from Israel Iran and around the world so make sure you keep tracking first post keep watching we'll see you tomorrow [Music] Iran has launched a direct attack from Iranian soil towards the state of Israel [Music]

Channel: Firstpost

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Keywords: firstpost, vantage, palki sharma, vantage palki sharma, first post, firstpost palki sharma, iran israel war, iran attacking israel, iran attack on israel, iran israel attack, iran drone attack latest news, iran launches air attack on israel, iran launches missile attack, iran launches missile attack on israel, iran drone attack israyal today, iran drone attack israel, iran missile attack on israel, iran missile strike in israel, missile attack on israel, iran missile attack live

Id: aAn_STdzyfQ

Length: 54min 49sec (3289 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 15 2024