INDIA TODAY EXCLUSIVE: Fiery Discussion On Who Will Win The 2024 Battle | Lok Sabha Elections 2024

so the 80% of weak seats of BJP are in south and east that's why BJP has a look South and a look East policy because here the focus effort because the Prime Minister and he's going to be here at the India today conclave and we're all looking forward to that the prime minister is spending a lot of time energy and effort in the South do you think that has some impact in this election or are they playing a much longer game work hard now benefit later or work hard now in the hope of benefiting right away no of course BJP is looking for some gains in the short term and longer gains in the long term like the alliance with TDP is part of its long-term strategy in the southern state because Chandrababu naido is already 73 years of age and the party may want to co-opt the party after it retires in what does co-opt mean co-opt means like what has happened with Shiva like what has happened with NCP like what is like likely to happen with parties Regional parties who do not have stronger succession plan like jdu or a bjd you know in a sense therefore rul when you said you know the Modi sha election machine what stands out for me they're actually focusing and they've done it before we put out these graphics on 161 seats which they did not win last time or came second and third now think about it normally in life we first strengthen ourselves where we are strong and then think about our weak areas here you've got a party which has spent the last two years focusing on their weak areas you're seeing the Prime Minister now in South India traveling a lot there you're seeing him focusing on East India but they've actually planned this out there have been a minister assigned to every three Lo SAA constituencies and most of them have been assigned to constituencies which the BJP did not win in 2019 and 14 so that's where I say the election machine you see this is a this is very system atic use of your political Acumen along with resources and I keep maintaining all of this needs resources and your power machine I know gbll will disagree on the Ed point you use it but the fact is at the end of the day you have to give them credit for the way they are thinking South India R is about vot share it's about 2029 in Bengal if you look at their numbers 10 years ago they were nowhere in the race they were almost a single digit party today they are competing for power so it's been a 15 20 years race that's a 20year race in Kerala it's a possibly a 15year race in Tamil Nadu so I can see where the BJP is going the real question in all your graphics R you put is K BJP 370 or BJP 400 the question I ask where's the opposition where can the Congress cross 54 that's the question rul not where BJP can cross if the Congress can reach 100 actually I I was hoping one of our four guests would tell me how can the Congress if I was playing game theory how can the Congress cross 100 because if the Congress can cross 100 then the BJP can be brought below 300 and that should be the game if the opposition really was focusing on the 2024 election seriously unfortunately it appears all of us are taking away and believing Char so par so we're not thinking so par but there was some uh opposition leaning cists who we' invited for this conversation they didn't even want to come now at least you can come and argue and make your appointment they ultimately didn't even want to come so I don't want to say anything but that tells its own story so now we're out of time on this debate as I said pick up your phones and there's a QR code that's coming up on the screen this is by no means a representative sample it's not stratified it's none of that it's just we're just having some fun we're seeing what the pulse of the what the mood of the conclave audience is that's all that there is don't and be prepared to be trolled who will get trolled the the audience why will the audience get trolled because you will you look Rahul and I are not voting we are only the judges here we are the neutral umpires this is the mood of the yeah it is yeah it's Anonymous but you're being treated as a collective the great and good of India also you know I know it's post lunch and stuff but some people haven't picked up their phones that's not nice please pick up your phones and there's a QR code in front of you so get involved in this let's otherwise and don't worry there are no that's the problem the EC also has that voter participation has to be high otherwise what's the point and don't worry there are no Central agents gencies at the moment here so when you're voting and your and your electoral B Bond won't become public and the Electoral bonds are also unconstitution so all that said please uh there it is and it's on your screen so if you can just scan that QR code go to the question uh I still see some people are very excited in doing it should we get our four guests to First give their numbers no we'll do that after this at the end huh while that's going on so now I hope everyone's doing it while they're going on we'll get their numbers okay okay gbll you start let's finish this other you get PR no we finish then give the oh there it started okay so there it is so there are four four options here okay so very quickly I mean it's very simple will the BJP get less than 272 is this category you can click it if that's where you think they'll end up 272 to 325 is this Category 3 26 to 370 is the third category and 370 plus is the fourth category so you got 90 seconds on the screen this group of people are not very nice they should vote you voted oh well done by the way can all the 11% stand up who no no 11 that's making the Electoral Bond public the 11% who are saying less than 272 stand up you can make them Mr Mr Modi is coming tomorrow he wants you to be identified no no that's not fair we said it's we said it's very unfair it's very unfair I agree it's very unfair okay now have you all voted not voted this the front tables look like they very sophisticated to do this you can't be so sophisticated to do you've done this okay they've all voted you guys have voted so now 53 seconds to go gor increasing now I hope you don't have some people outside voting for you you knew this was happening you didn't know what happening I I if I had managed to get somebody then you would have 90% Plus in the last in the because in this audience we don't get the same level of this BJ please understand I presume this is BJP not NDA no this is BJP only BJP this is only BJP 26 seconds to go will the BJP get 272 and less is 10% 177% 272 32 you have 18 seconds still is there anyone who hasn't voted say this is a waste of my time I'm not doing it I'm too classy and sophisticated for this I hope you guys joined in right okay good so now 10 seconds to go I think it's kind of stabilizing Raj likes to say as I said can we call this election now Raj S 3 2 1 okay we can call it 10% have said BJP less than 272 if you want to identify yourself one last chance 272 to 325 is 16% 326 to 370 is 34% 370 plus is 40% now R I have a a see those who have said less than 2 272 it is my firm conviction yes they believe BJP will get more than 272 but they want it to get less than 272 please talk to them and you will get this answer but but you know those whove given 370 plus are also going to find it extremely difficult to tell me where that 370 number is coming but that for another day I will give the panel 10 seconds each what are your numbers your final numbers this will be repeated on Counting day yashan deshmuk you start if you were polling how much does the BJP get how much does the Congress get come general election day very quickly 20 seconds very quickly BJP is number just the number 41% vote for the BJP 46% plus votes for the NDA no seats seats seats mer and acquisition okay Pradip gup your numbers no prep will come last one second amitab tiari your numbers okay see 400 looks attainable proram is helping BJP and it is it is it is please please please it is regain lost seats in 2019 attain add new seats and maintain maintain the 303 seats regain attain maintain now what's your number 400 is attainable okay gbll narar ra this is an election this is a vote for Modi Prime Minister Modi and for number number number morality number number I'm giving you number morality optimism development and Innovation so how many of you will live by these acronyms how 44 okay you know the thing is the BJP has okay so less than Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 that's another debate but go ahead pradep no I don't have number give me a number no no I mean it's still Alli noaj Alliance has to be form in proper rather shape urisa maharash Tamil NAD boss number I cannot say because of my some agreement I'm bind with those agreements I'm not supposed to reveal any kind of number any platform we do reveal number only once that that is on the exit pole only once we reveal the number we out of time we out of time this was a lot of fun if you want Pradip Gupta to give your numbers pay him like serious amounts of money otherwise he doesn't give you just just getting a conclave ticket doesn't cut it uh but yashan deshmuk and amitab tiari were a lot of fun J narar for coming here to the conclave thank you very much RAM is the concept that you've put on everybody's kind of getting onto these abbreviations we're very thankful for your time and delighted that you could join us but now let me say this because otherwise no one will watch television over the next couple of days if you think the election is a done deal in India picture whether the BJP crosses 400 or actually maybe the opposition does a bit better than what we think we'll know sometime in the third to fourth week of May but for all of you for joining us thank you very much and uh great to have all of you [Music] here hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen uh it's election time time the 18th Lo saaba elections are upon us it's the world's largest Democratic exercise and a critical question is who will get how many numbers at the end of the day this is the numbers game across this country people want to know not just who will win but often by what margin that's what we're going to do over the next 45 minutes dive deep into those numbers try and understand speically and politically which way is the country heading so Rahul and I are joined today by a very special panel of people who are going to stake their reputation by telling us who's going to win come the third week of May not just who's going to win rul but by what margins who gets how many seats and all of it is being recorded gentlemen so you will be tested on the day the actual results come out so you've seen them dance on television this is where their numbers will dance for us we did this in 2019 just before the general election and this was one of the most widely tracked sessions it was buzzing on social media and Digital television for very long so we're very excited about doing an encore most of our cast and crew is the same some faces have changed new Talent has emerged so allow me to introduce to you uh guests pradep Gupta known largely for his dancing sometimes for his numbers uh access my India thank you very much Pradip yashan deshmuk thank you very much for coming down all the way from Dubai we got amitab tiari used to be a sharp numbers wizard on the banking side is now applying the same skill the same uh assessment and Analysis to election data I said I'm a bihari I mean politics is my blood banking was something I was just doing for a living so thank you and gbll narar I thought he'd come all suited booted because this is the conclave he's coming is na AAR so he's clearly telling us I'm NAA first numers later I want to start by showing you the image as it stands this is the picture from the last Lo saaba it gives you a sense of the starting point in this election and then uh we'll talk to each of the experts about where we may end up sometime in May so bases the last Lo SAA elections I'll just walk across and try and show this to you here this is where things stand so in the states marked out in Gray the BJP maxed it so Gujarat Rajasthan madhia Pradesh chattis gar they've done as well as they could the areas demarcated in this yellowish Stone are the states where there is some room to grow so they had an 85% strike rate in Maharashtra uh 38% in urisa 43 in West Bengal 64 in Assam 80% in up Andra Pradesh they had nothing thing so that's where you can grow so that's the Headroom that is available uh for the bhartia J party and for the national Democratic Alliance to grow in the 2024 Loa election so the alliance needs to increase its strike rate from 40% to 57% in 16 states to achieve this target elsewhere they've already peaked out in the Hindi Heartland so that's the starting point to ensure that rajdeep and I had to do the minimum amount of work and the experts did the maximum amount of work so we could juice them for uh them having come here we got them to send us some visualizations and some assessments on what they believe is critical what do they think will determine this election the Prime Minister says for BJP and Charo par for NDA will that happen so I'll start by getting Pradip Gupta to explain what he thinks can change and since this is about siology it's about numbers we'll get them to explain some visualizations for you so the first visualization this is done by pradep and his team at access my India it'll give you a sense of what can change so gup mikut there's no music you only need to let the numbers dance uh here it is on your screen right now his assessment on what can change and then you can explain it so at access my India we have divided these states into three major groups the group number one where you can see there are 257 200 50 odd seats where NDA won 238 meaning 90% plus strike rate they scored the first and foremost for NDA to cross 400 marks they have to maintain their strike rate in these states and particularly if you can see in this group Maharashtra is very critical and important estate to be seen so this is the group number one and of course the Karnataka where BJ P has done very good in last loksabha election but recently concluded Assembly Election BJP lost very badly to Congress so that is these are the three states what Maharashtra Behar and Karnataka in this group to be seen closely and of course Delhi where am admi party and Congress has form the alliance so this will be interesting to see last time all three for separately now the group two is where so can I just call that visualization so what we've done is we've divided this into two parts one is called Happy Hunting Ground where the BJP has the chance of doing better than it did in the last elections and then we classifying tough seats tough seats where they haven't done well in the last elections and therefore uh how have things changed so Pradip there it is behind us so group two is where BJP has done fairly good they secured 60% % of seats out of total 180 odd seats so here is some scope or Elbow Room to improve their Tally from 60% to may be to 80% which means about 30 to 40 odd seats there is a scope in this group and most important here is utar Pradesh and West Bengal in utar prades last time bsp and SP fought together and secured 15 seat among them and Congress won one seat so this will be interesting to see so there is a Elbow Room of about 16 seats in uttar Pradesh Bengal BJP won 18 seats out of 42 seats and 24 seats won by TMC and one seat by two seats by Congress so here is another some scope one can say but it can go other way around as well particularly in Bengal considering last Assembly Election they decimated the BJP in that sense and the third Group which is very important and critical and everybody should focus particularly in NDA side where there are about 100 odd seats the NDA could one only five meaning 5% strike rate 95% strike rate in favor of opposition last time also last time Aid DMK had the alliance with ND n BJP or NDA meaning they have won one seat out of 40 seats in Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu and pondicheri of course then the Punjab this time also all four party seems to be contesting separately last time akali Dal and BJP had the alliance as NDA and both of them won two seats each so this is the Battleground for NDA particularly try and improve their t as much as possible to come close to 400 seats but essentially but essentially Pradip you're where I want to challenge you on this is that you're basically going by the premise that 2024 is a done deal that it's all about whether the BJP gets 300 to 325 on its own and with allies goes to 350 360 or the BJP itself goes to 330 to 350 and with allies goes to 400 am I correct then essentially you're telling me despite the fact that there is possible losses in Maharashtra double digit Maharashtra Bihar to some extent the potential in Karnataka for the opposition this election is basically about whether the BJP Peaks at 320 325 or whether it goes above 350 that's what the game is right razip I didn't say the done deal all I am saying is this is the number game May play out in the forthcoming election so that's the reason why you know in Karnataka where BJP won like 26 seats out of 28 seats only won by JDs and this time JDS is coming in the fold of NDA which is the BJP fold last time they were with the Congress Alliance maharash also categorically I mentioned so these are the three four states in the group one need to be watch very carefully if BJP is able to maintain their strike rate so so basically what you're saying BJP has to maintain its strike rate across what some would call the northwest monsoon because if you look from Goa all the way to jarand and I'm including jarand for a moment in the north the BJP won 85% of the seats in this entire belt essentially 230 to 240 of their total number of seats 303 came from here you're saying a they have to either retain that and then add in South India where there which has been their traditional weak point or the Lotus has to bloom in the East where between a Bengal possibly odisa and the Northeast the BJP could make up for any potential losses It suffers in either North or West India am I broadly correct yes you are absolutely right Cho good thank you no so if you look at what's at the back in Andra Pradesh which is where gvl comes from there's now an alliance with the janasena and Chandrababu naidu's TDP remember last time the NDA had zero they 25 seats up for grabs uh gvl uh if you look for example at urisa there is supposed to be an alliance between the BJP and the bjd they had only eight seats last time 21 now the point here gvl is you're stitching alliances which just on the surface don't make sense typically the number one party and number two party don't Ally I mean have you ever seen the number one party and their Prime opponent come together I mean that simply doesn't make electoral sense usually how are you making these things happen you know this is quite like in Punjab the op and the Congress couldn't really come together because they were one and two what is this magic wand that you have which can make the winner and his prime opponent come together in an alliance Rahul this hasn't happened yet so it's uh it's premature for me to comment on this but this is an election in after four decades I have been a close Watcher of Elections I haven't seen an election like this for 40 years you have never seen a loksabha election where you could pick a winner well before election this has not happened even in 2014 this has not happened even in 2019 every time you expected it to be hung Parliament or no single party majority government here we are talking about a BJP tally at 325 or 350 so one fundamental difference is opposition is decimated well before the elections have been even announced okay so no decimated in in the conclave not by no no no because there's a sense that just a minute to push you this is there is a sense that this is the bjp's ploy to physically intimidate the opposition or politically intimidate like the West indes would do on a cricket field you went on a cricket field there were four fast Bowlers there was clyve Lloyd the opposition was decimated similarly there's Narendra Modi G as clyve Lloyd there are his four fast Bowlers Amit sha you can add another three the opposition already feels India today that this is psychological when you look at the numbers why are you then plucking around looking for allies there why are you taking congressman from other parties giving tickets to former congressman who switched over are you as certain about these numbers as perhaps you're telling us here Richards that's a different debate Captain was C lyd but go ahead no absolutely Raj the question of either the victory or the magnitude of Victory is not in question but this is the time that anybody who wants a political future for himself wants to align with the BJP States like for example Andra Pradesh which you talked about the parties are very keen to align with the BJP Jag will feel so cheated he helped you on so many occasions in the Raj I don't know last moment you leave him no I I think it's not for you to comment for any individual I have not seen any party making a comment like this it is our right to align with any party to further our prospects the bigger mandate is not 20 2024 election the real real Target is 2047 viit bat is our agenda we are not fighting just for a majority in this election to realize the dream it's an aspirational election you see normally in an election like this voters will feel unenthusiastic about the election because the outcome is already known no Prime Minister Modi G the way he's he's creating that aspirational India people will turn out in larger numbers so then why tie up with the Chandra Babu Naidu who called the same prime minister hardened terrorist before the 2019 election you see my point is if you're so confident of your numbers why do you even need these alliances is that a recognition that there are limitations especially south of the vindas or in a state like odisa and therefore because this time has to be about 400 or about 350 plus Sam election forget what's happened in the past be flexible and tie up open door policy anyone wants to come into our party please come this is the time no Raj there is I I think it's a the larger mandate as I mentioned to you is vixit parat you need to get as many political parties on board you need to get as many state governments to partner with you in this larger Mission because we already have a 2/3 majority par passage of bills is not really our concern but for for realizing your dream of viasit bhat you certainly need to get everyone on board okay so that was Pradip gupta's analysis I want to come now to yashan deshmuk because we asked yashan the question will the BJP cross the 370 marks so there's a visualization that's coming up on your screen take a look at it very carefully and then yashwant can explain because you've broken this up into three categories seats which are tough fights for the BJP that's the first category there are 100 such seats the second category is where it's BJP versus Congress in a direct fight the third is where it's BJP versus a regional party Yash just I want all of you to basically reconstruct everything into very very simple three figures 543 is the total Loa strength remember three numbers 100 200 and 243 three easy what we have simply done is the 100 seats where the BJP is completely absent forget about number one forget about number two BJP is not even number three or four maybe 100 seats BJP is just absent look at the 2014 and 19 vote shares over here BJP pulled 7.3% in these 100 seats and 5.8% in these seats in 2019 BJP might be very happy to double triple its vote share even it then it reaches about 15% vote share will that convert into any seat n big no maybe one or two here and there that's fine I mean you know you may have an odd in tendam one kyya Kumari one KATU those kind of things that aberration is fine but zil second is 200 seats this is where the meat is BJP versus the Congress direct fight look at the Gap of the BJP and the Congress vote share almost about 20% plus in 14 20 25 almost touching 25% in 2019 and there the BJP strike rate look at that 171 out of 200 in 14 and 185 out of 200 in 2019 and as per our motn which will come in right now which we did in January by the way BJP was almost touching 190 out of these 200 so what does it tell you that between the BJP and the Congress these 200 seats where the direct fight is the BJP is leading over the Congress by more than 20% votes there are number of states where BJP is Ming voting more than 50% number of states where the BJP is polling more than 60% votes so no matter how much nayra works out this figure is not going to change just the way the first block is not going to change BJP no matter how much tries nothing is going to change in the first block no matter how much Congress is going to try nothing's going to change in the second block third block is the most critical that is 243 where it is BJP versus the regional parties that is where the meat is now out of here 2014 BJP was about 27% look at the BJP vote share going up to 35% Plus in 2019 can it go even further they got 108 in 14 118 in 2019 can they take it from here can they go further north from here that's the big question so question about 370 Rahul and 400 plus it's not about the Zone one and zone two it's the zone three where it is going to come down but therefore basically since we are also entering IPL season when I look at at your numbers if I was a captain of any of the if I was Mumbai Indians Captain I want the Congress Bowlers at me basically what you're saying the perfect matchup for the BJP is the Congress where there is Congress the BJP is in a comfortable position where it is a regional party it's a tough situation and there are certain traditional areas like Kerala for example where the BJP is still a single digit party in terms of vote share broadly therefore I want the Congress to oppose me in as many seats as possible POS it's the Congress which is theor c as we go into this election ABS absolutely for the opposition Alliance their weakest Le is the Congress for the NDA their weakest link by the way are actually their Alliance Partners in many states for example in Bihar those who are contesting on BJP ticket have much better chance to win than the alliance partner jdu ticket similarly in Maharashtra those who are contesting on a BJP ticket are likely to win much better than those who are contesting on not shind or Ajit P ticket it's that easy however one interesting thing which rad has happened after our motan poll came out gv's party all of a sudden realized that you know putting up a manufacturing unit in certain area from the ground zero in a green field investment is a long shot acquisition is better no so let G respond this is very important because each time the mood of the nation is put out by the India Today team the BJP takes that very seriously last time we had the mood of the nation which showed that the the India Alliance wasn't doing well in Maharashtra you broke sharat paar's party you took akat chind away from udav takre then the next time we put out a poll which said that they weren't doing well in Bihar they took nitish Kumar back and took him so you know it's very difficult to do data when the factors that make up the data keep changing the basically they become no no basically BJP should put in the brackets Ma and Ma is not mkes Amani it's mergers and acquisition you know you're you're very good at it you're very good at merger and to be very honest our leadership our politics is not media driven we are not going to change our because I'm telling you I don't want to name our leaders but they we certainly look at media with respect but our decisions are never never ever driven by media so therefore don't uh why my home state why did you break these two parties if you were so confident you see what as as as uh yashwant has pointed out BJP very strong when it comes to the Congress when it comes to the regional parties you're in more difficult War so why break a regional party or why acquire a regional party I think it's very unfair to ask me why they split up you should ask those parties what did they find so uncomfortable within them Poss they say they found the Ed uncomfortable no then then Congress should have split several times should congress not be splitting how many congress leaders have been raided should should every other party should DMK not be splitting should they should have come back and joined the NDA so should the BRS not be splitting so don't be unfair parties which have split they have split because of their internal turmoil because there are their inability to accept their own leadership because they are corrupt parties because they are family driven parties there is no scope for leadership to gain and emerge otherwise if what you said is right every party should be splitting daily they corrupt only while they're in the opposition once they come to you they're a washing machine again you see this you see it is you in the media who keep targeting us like this we have never see we have never given a clean CH to anybody because he has joined either the NDA or BJP so that's not fair if there are any such cases please approach the courts what prevents the opposition from going to the court it's only these are only political allegations two things can be true because it's an equation ultimately either the BJP sees the mood of the nation and makes changes in states where they aren't doing well which is possible which is my theory or the BJP already knows what the reality is in the mood of the nation captures the reality and therefore you have to act basis that reality which means that we do a great job with M the both no no we give we give ourselves too much of credit the BJ the BJP is here here I must here I must be on the side of mod sha if you don't want to take credit don't be very careful about what you're saying is saying I'm on the side of Modi sha now I don't know why this is going only to the no no only to the extent it's a supreme election machine you and I do one poll the BJP today has resources to do half a dozen polls per week tracking it on a day-to-day basis it requires lots of money and they have no shortage of it and they're getting they get I'll give you an example of a seat in Maharashtra I know they've changed their candidate specifically after they did four rounds of polls in that constituency now you and I and jashwant or anyone even pradep prad may be doing it for them uh which is another matter but the fact is you're getting therefore data of a kind that we've never seen But I disagree with Raj I think all parties are doing polling they do very extensive polling in fact the pollster of the Congress in 2009 was so horribly wrong that he convinced the Congress top leadership that winning I'm not making this up is this not true is this not true so it's not as if they aren't polling they are polling as extensively as rigorously it's just that they have terrible no no I have I have also done polls for my own part but let me tell you as a pollster my leaders they have they have no their nose to the ground they will not if you come and tell them I'm telling you if I do a poll and go and tell them Tamil Nadu we are sweeping they'll say leadership Raj one again let me let me ask Raj Raj is this not true that in 2019 the internal polling of the congress party had convinced the top leadership of the congress party that they were actually winning that when the result came out it came as a shock to them because their internal polling they were spending money on it it's not as if money wasn't being spent was telling them that they are winning because Congress doesn't live at the a this question should be posed to the Congress leader ship B the fact is if I have 10 Rupees in my pocket there's only so much I can do if I have 100 or thousand rupees in my pocket I have far more options the BJP as I said is a sophisticated resourcer election machine but having said that no but if you have 10 rupes how much of that gets spent on poing and how much gets kept that's also a fact well they could save all the money Raj they could save all the money and simply read India today that's fine with them because I remember the four Estates boss asked me to you know red flag that was in 15th August issue last year uh I was talking to APN you know Bim I was rather I I I end up learning every time something and he asked me what is the red flagging that of the BJP I said four states that is Karnataka Bihar Maharashtra and Bengal and look at the way BJP has moved around that first thing the lowest hanging fruit JDS in Karnataka 10% vote share they got them in I don't know why Congress did not do it God knows second thing bear the unthinkable as they of course Maharashtra is a kind of they are doing in installments whatever they are trying to do and Bengal is going to be the mother of our election let me tell you one thing which prad would agree with me and even am would agree with me this election all the other states 30 as you may call it CI States and States everything is this way or that way there is only one state where actually there is going to be a fight for each and every bloody seat that is going to be best Bal okay let's get amitab tiari then to give us I just want to tell everyone since we want to make the conclave experience as immersive and as experiential as possible we want you all to vote so we did some jugar in the way that India can do jugar and India Today can RAR and hopefully it'll work out well I will throw up that same QR code remember from the debate which you guys were eating and watching and I was working uh from that debate we'll put out that QR code which will have four options of where you think the results of the poll will be and before anybody trolls us yes we understand statistics and this is not a representative sample it's highly skewed it's very Urban it's very suit boot it's not really the real voter but we're just having some fun right so we will have that up and you tell us so get your phones get your QR codes and then we'll do this in just a while amitab tiari so we'll have your visualization on the question of whether they'll get to 370 or whether they'll even cross 272 as rajdeep is asking what's your sense see essentially U we've heard a lot thought about ABC category of seats in in newspapers so what we have tried to do is we have divided the 543 seats into ABC category a is strong and relatively strong so two out of three or three out of three wins in the last three election is a category strong relatively strong if the party has won only one out of three times in the last three elections it is category B which is relatively weak and if the party has not won any time in the last last three elections it's a category C or a weak seat this is the breakup of seats of BJP so BJP it is very simple for BJP to attain a single simple majority because the a category seats of BJP are 262 the First Column which it has won two out of three or three out of three times in the last three elections so if it's able to maintain then it will be very near the simple majority out of that if you see 147 seats which is more than half of the seats are from the northern region which means that the party has maxed out in the northern region and that's why it has to look for other regions to expand now if you see there are 82 seats in the B category which it has won only one out of three times here most of the seats are in eastern region where the focus of the BJP is is odisa where it wanted to have an alliance or tried to have an alliance with the bjd then Bengal where sir is saying that is the Mur of all battles half of those seats are there and then you look at the weak seats of BJP is 199 almost 200 some of these seats the Allies would have contested now in this if you see half of the seats are in south of India 98 and the balance or rather 61 seats are in eastern region so the 80% of weak seats of BJP are in south and east that's why BJP has a look South and a look East policy because here the focus effort because the Prime Minister and he's going to be here at the India today conclave and we're all looking forward to that the prime minister is spending a lot of time energy and effort in the South do you think that has some impact in this election or are they playing a much longer game work hard now benefit later or work hard now in the hope of benefiting right away no of course BJP is looking for some gains in the short term and longer gains in the long term like the alliance with TDP is part of its long-term strategy in the southern state because Chandrababu naido is already 73 years of age and the party may want to co-opt the party after it retires in what does co-opt mean co-opt means like what has happened with Shiva like what has happened with NCP like what is likely to happen with parties Regional parties who do not have stronger succession plan like jdu or a bjd you know in a sense therefore rul when you said you know the Modi sha election machine what stands out for me they're actually focusing and they've done it before we put out these graphics on 161 seats which they did not win last time or came second and third now think about it normally in life we first strengthen ourselves where we are strong and then think about our weak areas here you've got a party which has spent the last two years focusing on their weak areas you're seeing the Prime Minister now in South India traveling a lot there you're seeing him focusing on East India but they've actually planned this out there have been a minister assigned to every three loksabha constituencies and most of them have been assigned to constituencies which the BJP did not win in 2019 and 14 so that's where I say the election machine you see this is a this is very systematic use of your political Acumen along with resources and I keep maintaining all of this needs resources and your power machine I know gbll will disagree on the Ed point you use it but the fact is at the end of the day you have to give them credit for the way they are thinking South India R is about vote share it's about 2029 in Bengal if you look at their numbers 10 years ago they were nowhere in the race they were almost a single- digit party today they competing for power so it's been a 15 20e race that's a 20e race in Kerala it's a possibly a 15E race in Tamil Nadu so I can see where the BJP is going the real question in all your graphics R you put is BJP 370 or BJP 400 the question I ask where's the opposition where can the Congress cross 54 that's the question rul not where BJP can CR if the Congress can reach 100 actually I I was hoping one of our four guest would tell me how can the Congress if I was playing game theory how can the Congress cross 100 because if the Congress can cross 100 then the BJP can be brought below 300 and that should be the game if the opposition really was focusing on the 2024 election seriously unfortunately it appears all of us are taken away and believing Char soar so we're not thinking soar there was some uh opposition leaning theologists who we' invited for this conversation they didn't even want to come now at least you can come and argue and make your point I mean they ultimately didn't even want to come so I don't want to say anything but that tells its own story so now we're out of time on this debate as I said pick up your phones and there's a QR code that's coming up on the screen this is by no means a representative sample it's not stratified it's none of that it's just we're just having some fun we're seeing what the pulse of the what the mood of the conclave audiences that's all that there is and be prepared to be trolled who will get trolled the the audience why will the audience get rolled because you will look Rahul and I are not voting we are only the judges here we are the neutral umpires this is the mood of the anous yeah it is yeah it's Anonymous but you're being treated as a collective the great and good of India also you know I know it's post lunch and stuff but some people haven't picked up their phones that's not nice please pick up your phones and there's a QR code in front of you so get involved in this let's otherwise and don't worry there are no and that's the problem the EC also has that voter participation has to be higher other what's the point and don't worry there are no Central agencies at the moment here so when you're voting and your and your electoral B Bond won't become public and the Electoral bonds are also unconstitutional so all that said please uh there it is and it's on your screen so if you can just scan that QR code go to the question uh I still see some people are very excited in doing it should we get our four guests to First give their numbers no we'll do that after this at the end while that's going on so now I hope everyone's doing it a lot of people are doing while they're going on we'll get their numbers okay okay GBL you start let's finish this other you get PR no we finish then give the oh there it started okay so there it is so there are four four options here okay so very quickly I mean it's very simple will the BJP get less than 272 is this category you can click it if that's where you think they'll end up 272 to 325 is this category 326 to 370 is the third category and 370 plus is the fourth category so you got 90 seconds on the screen this group of people are not very nice they should vote you voted oh sub by the way can all the 11% stand up who no no 11 that's like working the Electoral Bond public the 11% who are saying less than 272 stand up you canot make them Mr Mr Modi is coming tomorrow he wants you to be identified no no that's not fair we said it's we said very unfair it's very unfair I agree it's very unfair now have you all voted not voted this the front TBL looks like they very sophisticated to do this you can't be so sophisticated to do you've done this okay they've all voted you guys have voted so now 53 seconds to go increasing now I hope you don't have some people outside voting for you you knew this was happening you didn't know what's happening I I if I had managed to get somebody then you would have 90% Plus in the last the because in this audience we don't get the same level of this please understand I presume this is BJP not NDA no this is BJP only BJP this is only BJP so 26 seconds to go will the BJP get 272 and less is 10% 177% 272 32 you have 18 seconds still is there anyone who hasn't voted say this is a waste of my time I'm not doing it I'm too classy and sophisticated for this I hope you guys joined in right okay good so now 10 seconds to go I think it's kind of stabilizing DH likes to to say as I said can we call this election now Raj 3 2 1 okay we can call it 10% have said BJP less than 272 if you want to identify yourself one last chance 272 to 325 is 16% 326 through 370 is 34% 370 plus is 40% now rip I have a a see those who have said less than two 272 it is my firm conviction yes they believe BJP will get more than 272 but they want it to get less than 272 please talk to them and you will get this answer but you know those who've given 370 plus are also going to find it extremely difficult to tell me where that 370 number is coming but that for another day I will give the panel 10 seconds each what are your numbers your final numbers this will be repeated on Counting day yashan deshmuk you start if you were polling how much does the BJP get how much does the Congress get come general elections day very quickly 20 seconds very quickly BJP is number just number 41% vote for the BJP 46% plus votes for the NDA no seat seat seats okay your numbers no PR will come last one second amab tiwari your numbers okay see 400 looks attainable proram is helping BJP and it is it is it is please please please it is regain lost seats in 2019 attain add new seats and maintain maintain the 303 seats regain attain maintain now what's your number 400 is attainable okay narar this is an election this is a vote for Modi Prime Minister Modi and for number number morality number number I'm giving you number morality optimism development and Innovation so how many of you will live by this acronyms how 44 okay you know the thing is the BJP has okay so less than Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 that's another debate but go ahead Pradip no I don't have number no no I mean still the alliance no no Raj Alliance has to be formed in proper rather shape urisa maharash Tamil Nadu number I cannot say because of my some agreement I'm bind with those agreements I'm not supposed to reveal any kind of number any platform we do reveal number only that is on the exit pole day only once we reveal the number okay we out of time Raj we out of time this was a lot of fun if you want PR Gupta to give your numbers pay him like serious amounts of money otherwise he doesn't give you just just getting a conclave ticket doesn't cut it uh but yashan deshmuk and amitab tiwari were a lot of fun J narar for coming here to the conclave thank you very much RAM is the concept that you've put on everybody's kind of getting onto these abbreviations we're very thankful for your time and delighted that you could join us but R let me say this because otherwise no one will watch television over the next couple of days if you think they election is a done deal in India picture whether the BJP crosses 400 or actually maybe the opposition does a bit better than what we think we'll know sometime in the third to fourth week of May but for all of you for joining us thank you very much and uh great to have all of you [Music] here hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen uh it's election time the 18th loksabha elections are upon us it's the world's largest Democratic exercise and a critical question is who will get how many numbers at the end of the day this is the numbers game across this country people want to know not just who will win but often by what margin that's what we're going to do over the next 45 minutes dive deep into those numbers try and understand speically and politically which way is the country heading so Rahul and I are joined today by a very special panel of people who are going to stake their reputation by telling us who's going to win come the third week of May not just who's going to win rul but by what margins who gets how many seats and all of it is being recorded gentlemen so you will be tested on the day the actual results come out so you've seen them dance on television this is where their numbers will dance for us we did this in 2019 just before the general election and this was one of the most widely tracked sessions it was buzzing on social media and Digital television for very long so we're very excited about doing an enor most of our cast and crew is the same some faces have changed new Talent his emerged so allow me to introduce to you our guests pradep Gupta known largely for his dancing sometimes for his numbers uh access my India thank you very much pradep yashan deshmuk thank you very much for coming down all the way from Dubai we' got amitab tiari used to be a sharp numbers wizard on the banking side is now applying the same skill the same uh assessment analysis to election data I said I'm a bihari I mean politics is my blood banking was something I was just doing for a Liv living so thank you and gbll narar ra I thought he'd come all suited booted because this is the conclave he's coming is na AAR so he's clearly telling us I'm NAA first numbers later I want to start by showing you the image as it stands this is the picture from the last Lo Saba it gives you a sense of the starting point in this election and then uh we'll talk to each of the experts about where we may end up sometime in May so bases the last Loa elections I'll just walk across and try and show this to you here this is where things stand so in the states marked out in Gray the BJP maxed it so Gujarat Rajasthan madhia Pradesh chattis gar they've done as well as they could the areas demarcated in this yellowish Stone are the states where there is some room to grow so they had an 85% strike rate in Maharashtra uh 38% in urisa 43 in West Bengal 64 in Assam 80% in up Andra Pradesh they had nothing so that's where you can grow so that's the Headroom that is available uh for the bhia J party and for the national Democratic Alliance to grow in the 2024 Loa election so the alliance needs to increase its strike rate from 40% to 57% in 16 states to achieve this target elsewhere they've already peaked out in the Hindi Heartland so that's the starting point to ensure that rajdeep and I had to do the minimum amount of work and the experts did the maximum amount of work so we could juice them for uh them having come here we got them to send us some visualizations and some assessments on what they believe is critical what do they think will determine this election the Prime Minister says for BJP and for NDA will that happen so I'll start by getting Pradip Gupta to explain what he thinks can change and since this is about syphy it's about numbers we'll get them to explain some visualizations for you so the first visualization this is done by pradep and his team at access my India it'll give you a sense of what can change so gup G mic UT there's no music you only need to let the numbers dance uh here it is on your screen right now his assessment on what can change and then you can explain it so at access my India we have divided these Estates into three major groups the group number one where you can see there are 257 250 odd seats where NDA W 238 meaning 90% plus strike rate they scored the first and foremost for NDA to cross 400 marks they have to maintain their strike rate in these states and particularly if you can see in this group Maharashtra is very critical and important state to be seen so this is the group number one and of course the Karnataka where BJP has done very good in last Lo SAA election but recently concluded Assembly Election BJP lost very badly to Congress so that is these are the three states Maharashtra Bihar and Karnataka in this group to be seen closely and of course Del where aadmi party and Congress has formed the alliance so this will be interesting to see last time all three fought separately now the group two is where so can I just call that visualization so what we've done is we've divided this into two parts one is called happy Hunting Ground where the BJP has the chance of doing better than it did in the last elections and then we classifying tough seats tough seats where they haven't done well in the last elections and therefore uh how of things change so Pradip there it is behind us so group two is where BJP has done fairly good they secured 60% of seats out of total 180 odd seats so here is some scope or Elbow Room to improve their Tally from 60% to maybe to 80% which means about 30 to 40 odd seats there is a scope in this group and most important here is utar prades and West Bengal in uttar Pradesh last time bsp and SP fought together and secured 15 seat among them and Congress won one seat so this will be interesting to see so there is a Elbow Room of about 16 seats in uttar Pradesh Bengal BJP won 18 seats out of 42 seats and 24 seats one by TMC and one seat by two seats by Congress so here is another some scope one can say but it can go other way around as well particularly in Bengal considering last Assembly Election they decimated the BJP in that sense and the third Group which is very important and critical and everybody should focus particularly in NDA side where there are about 100 odd seats the NDA could won only five meaning 5% strike rate 95% strike rate in favor of opposition last time also last time Aid DMK had the alliance with ND and BJP or NDA meaning they have won one seat out of 40 seats in Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu and pondicheri of course then the Punjab this time also all four party seems to be contesting separately last time akali and BJP had the alliance as n and both of them won two seats each so this is the Battle Ground for NDA particularly try and improve their t as much as possible to come close to 400 seats but essentially but essentially pradep you're where I want to challenge you on this is that you're basically going by the premise that 2024 is a done deal that it's all about whether the BJP gets 300 to 325 on its own and with allies goes to 350 360 or the BJP itself goes to 330 to 350 and with allies goes to 400 am I correct that essentially you're telling me despite the fact that there is possible losses in Maharashtra double digit Maharashtra Bihar to some extent the potential in Karnataka for the opposition this election is basically about whether the BJP Peaks at 320 325 or whether it goes above 350 that's what the game is Right Raj I didn't say that D deal all I'm saying is this is the number game May play out in the forthcoming election so that's the reason why you know in Karnataka where BJP won like 26 seats out of 28 seats only one by JDs and this time JDS is coming in the fold of NDA which is the BJP fold last time they were with the Congress Alliance Maharashtra also categorically I mentioned so these are the three four states in the group one need to be watch very carefully if BJP is able to maintain their strike rate so so basically what you're saying BJP has to maintain its strike rate across what some would call the northwest monsoon because if you look from Goa all the way to jarand and I'm including jarand for a moment in the north the BJP won 85% of the seats in this entire belt essentially 230 to 240 of their total number of seats 303 came from here you're saying a they have to either retain that and then add in South India where which has been the traditional weak point or the Lotus has to bloom in the East where between a Bengal possibly odisa and the Northeast the BJP could make up for any potential losses It suffers in either North or West India am I broadly correct yes you are absolutely right Chell good thank you no so if you look at what's at the back in Andra Pradesh which is where gvl comes from there's now an alliance with the J and Chandrababu naidu's TDP remember last time the NDA had zero they 25 seats up for grabs uh gvl uh if you look for example at urisa there is supposed to be an alliance between the BJP and the bjd they had only eight seats last time 21 now the point here gvl is you're stitching alliances which just on the surface don't make sense typically the number one party and number two party don't Ally I mean have you ever seen the number one party and the prime opponent come together I mean that simply doesn't make electoral sense usually how are you making these things happen you know this is quite like in Punjab the app and the Congress couldn't really come together because they were one and two what is this magic wand that you have which can make the winner and his prime opponent come together in an alliance Rahul this hasn't happened yet so it's it's premature for me to comment on this but this is an election in after four decades I have been a close Watcher of Elections I haven't seen an election like this for 40 years you have never seen a Lo SAA election where you could pick a winner well before election this has not happened even in 2014 this has not happened even in 2019 every time you expected it to be hung Parliament or no single party majority government here we are talking about a BJP tally at 325 or 350 so one fundamental difference is opposition is decimated well before the elections have been even announced okay so no decimated in in the conclave not by because there's a sense that is just a minute to push you this is there is a sense that this is the bjp's ploy to physically intimidate the opposition or politically intimidate like the West indes would do on a cricket field you went on a cricket field there were four fast Bowlers there was clyve Lloyd the opposition was decimated similarly there's Narendra Modi G as clyve Lloyd is four fast Bowlers Amit sha you can add another three the opposition already feels India Today concl sea that this is psychological when you look at the numbers why you then plucking around looking for allies there why are you taking congressman from other parties giving tickets to former congressman who switched over are you as certain about these numbers as perhaps you're telling us here CL ly or Richards that's a different debate but go ahead no absolutely Raj the question of either the victory or the magnitude of Victory is not in question but this is the time that anybody who wants a political future for himself wants to align with the BJP States like for example Andra Pradesh which you talked about the parties are very keen to align with the BJP Jag will feel so cheated he helped you on so many occasions in the Raj last moment you leave him no I I think it's not for you to comment for any individual I have not seen any party making a comment like this it is our right to align with any party to further our prospects the bigger mandate is not 20 2024 election the real real Target is 2047 viasit bhat is our agenda we are not fighting just for a majority in this election to realize the dream it's an aspirational election you see normally in an election like this voters will feel unenthusiastic about the election because the outcome is already known no Prime Minister Modi G the way he's he's creating that aspirational India people will turn out in larger numbers so then why tie up with the Chandra Babu Naidu who called the same prime minister hardened terrorist before the 2019 election you see my point is if you're so confident of your numbers why do you even need these alliances is that a recognition that there are limitations especially south of the vindas or in a state like odisa and therefore because this time has to be about 400 or about 350 plus Sam election I forget what's happened in the past be flexible and tie up open door policy anyone wants to come into our party please come this is the time no Raj there is I I think it's a the larger mandate as I mentioned to you is vixit bat you need to get as many political parties on board you need to get as many state governments to partner with you in this larger Mission because we already have a 2/3 majority parliamentary U uh passage of bills is not really Our concern but for for realizing your dream of viasit Bharat you certainly need to get everyone on board okay so that was pradep gupta's analysis I want to come now to yashan deshmuk because we asked yashan the question will the BJP cross the 370 marks so there's a visualization that's coming up on your screen take a look at it very carefully and then then yashwant can explain because you broken this up into three categories seats which are tough fights for the BJP that's the first category there are 100 such seats the second category is where it's BJP versus Congress in a direct fight the third is where it's BJP versus a regional party just I want all of you to basically reconstruct everything into very very simple three figures 543 is the total Lo SAA strength remember three numbers 100 200 and 243 easy what we have simply done is the 100 seats where the BJP is completely absent forget about number one forget about number two BJP is not even number three or four maybe 100 seats BJP is just absent look at the 2014 and 19 vote shares over here BJP pulled 7.3% in these 100 seats and 5.8% in these 100 seats in 2019 BJP might be very happy to double triple its vote share even it then it reaches about 15% vote share will that convert into any seat n big no maybe one or two here and there that's fine I mean you know you may have an odd in tendam one kanyakumari one KATU those kind of things that aberration is fine but zil second is 200 seats this is where the meat is BJP versus the Congress direct fight look at the Gap of the BJP and the Congress vote share almost about 20% plus in 14 20 25 almost touching 25% in 2019 and there the BJP strike rate look at that 171 out of 20000 in 14 and 185 out of 200 in 2019 and as per our motn which will come in right now which we did in January by the way BJP was almost touching 190 out of these 200 so what does it tell you that between the BJP and the Congress these 200 seats where the direct fight is the BJP is leading over the Congress by more than 20% votes there are number of states where BJP is Ming voting more than 50% number of states where the BJP is poing more than 60% votes so no matter how much nayra works out this figure is not going to change just the way the first block is not going to change BJP no matter how much tries nothing is going to change in the first block no matter how much Congress is going to try nothing's going to change in the second block third block is the most critical that is 243 where it is BJP versus the regional parties that is where the meat is now out of here 2014 BJP was about 27% look at the BJP vote share going up to 35% Plus in 2019 can it go even further they got 108 in 14 118 in 2019 can they take it from here can they go further north from here that's the big question so question about 370 Rahul and 400 plus it's not about the Zone one and zone two it's a zone three where it is going to come down but therefore basically since we are all also entering IPL season when I look at your numbers if I was a captain of any of the if I was Mumbai Indians Captain I want the Congress Bowlers at me basically what you're saying the perfect matchup for the BJP is the Congress where there is Congress the BJP is in a comfortable position where it is a regional party it's a tough situation and there are certain traditional areas like Kerala for example whether BJP is still a single digit party in terms of vote share broadly therefore I want want the Congress to oppose me in as many seats as possible it's the Congress which is the comor CI as we go into this election Absol absolutely for the opposition Alliance their weakest link is the Congress for the NDA their weakest link by the way are actually their Alliance Partners in many states for example in Bihar those who are contesting on BJP ticket have much better chance to win than the alliance partner jdu ticket similarly in Maharashtra those who are contesting on a BJP ticket are likely to win been much better than those who are contesting on Ikat shind or Ajit Paar ticket it's that easy however one interesting thing which rad was happened after our motan poll came out gv's party all of a sudden realized that you know putting up a manufacturing unit in certain area from the ground zero in a green field investment is a long short acquisition is better no so let G respond this is very important because each time the mood of the nation is put out by the India Today team the BJP takes that very seriously last time we had the mood of the nation which showed that the the IND Alliance wasn't doing well in Maharashtra you broke sharat paar's party you took akat chind away from udav takre then the next time we put out a poll which said that they weren't doing well in Bihar they took nitish Kumar back and took him so you know it's very difficult to do data when the factors that make up the data keep changing they basically they become no basically BJP should put in the brackets Ma and Ma is not Mukesh Amani it's mergers and acquisition you know you're you're very good at it you're very good at merger and acquisition to be very honest our leadership our politics is not media driven we are not going to change our because I'm telling you I don't want to name our leaders but they we certainly look at media with respect but our decisions are never never ever driven by media so therefore don't my home state why did you break these two parties if you were so confident you see what as as as uh yashwant has pointed out BJP very strong when it comes the to the Congress when it comes to the regional parties you're in more difficult so why break a regional party or why acquire a regional party I think it's very unfair to ask me why they split up you should ask those parties what did they find so uncomfortable within them possibly they say they found the Ed uncomfortable then then Congress should have split several times should congress not be splitting how many congress leaders have been raided should should every other party should DMK not be splitting should they should have come back and joined the NDA so should the BRS not be splitting so don't be unfair parties which have split they have split because of their internal turmoil because there are their inability to accept their own leadership because they are corrupt parties because they are family driven parties there is no scope for leadership to gain and emerge otherwise if what you said is right every party should be splitting daily they corrupt only while they in the opposition once they come to you they're a washing machine again you see this you see it is you in the media who keep targeting us like this we have never see we have never given a clinch to anybody because he has joined either the NDA or BJP so that's not fair if there are any such cases please approach the courts what prevents the opposition from going to the court it's only these are only political Elations only two things can be true because it's an equation ultimately either the BJP sees the mood of the nation and makes changes in states where they aren't doing well which is possible which is my theory or the BJP already knows what the reality is in the mood of the nation captures the reality and therefore you have to act based that reality which means that we do a great with motivation no no we give we give ourselves too much of credit the BJ the BJP is here here I must here I must be on the side of mod sh if you don't want to take credit don't be very careful about what you're saying saying I'm on the side of mod sh I don't know where this is going only to the no no only to the extent it's a supreme election machine you and I do one poll the BJP today has resources to do half a dozen polls per week tracking it on a day-to-day bis it requires lots of money and they have no shortage of it and they getting they get I'll give you an example of a seat in Maharashtra I know they've changed their candidate specifically after they did four rounds of polls in that constituency now you and I and jwand or anyone even pradep pradep maybe doing it for them uh which is another matter but the fact is you're getting therefore data of a kind that we've never seen But I disagree with Raj I think all parties are doing polling they do very extensive polling in fact the pollster of the Congress in 2009 was so horribly wrong that he convinced the Congress top leadership that they were winning I'm not making this up is this not true is this not true so it's not as if they aren't polling they are polling as extensively as rigorously it's just that they have terrible no no I have I have also done polls for my own part but let me tell you as a pollster my leadership they have they have no their NOS to the ground they will not if you come and tell them I'm telling you if I do a poll and go and tell them Tamil Nadu we are sweeping they say our leadership one again let me let me ask rajdeep is this not true that in 2019 the internal polling of the congress party had convinced the top leadership of the congress party that they were actually winning that when the result came out it came as a shock to them because their internal polling they were spending money on it it's not as if money wasn't being spent was telling them that they winning because Congress doesn't live with the a this question should be posed to the Congress leadership B the fact is if I have 10 Rupees in my pocket there's only so much I can do if I have 100 or thousand rupees in my pocket I have far more options the BJP as I said is a sophisticated resourcer election machine but having said that no but if you have 10 Rupees how much of that gets spent on poing and how much gets kept away that's also a fact well they could save all the money Raj they could save all the money and simply read India today that's fine with them because I remember the four Estates boss asked me to you know red flag that was in 15th August issue last year uh I was talking to APN you know Bim I was rather I I I end up learning every time something and he asked me what is the red flagging that of the BJP I said four states that is Karnataka Bihar Maharashtra and Bengal and look at the way BJP has moved around that first thing the lowest hanging fruit JDS in Karnataka 10% vote share they got them in I don't know why Congress did not do it God knows second bear the unthinkable as they of course Maharashtra is a kind of they are doing in installments whatever they are trying to do and Bengal is going to be the mother of election let me tell you one thing which Pradip would agree with me and even am would agree with me this election all the other states 30 as you may call it CI States and States everything is this way or that way there is only one state where actually there is going to be a fight for each and every bloody seat that is going to be West Bengal okay let's get amitab tiari then to give us I just want to tell everyone since we want to make the conclave experience as immersive and as experiential as possible we want you all to vote so we did some jugar in the way that India can do jugar and India Today can do jugar and hopefully it'll work out well I will throw up that same QR code remember from the debate which you guys were eating and watching and I was working uh from that debate we'll put out that QR code which will have four options of where you think the results of the poll will be and before anybody trolls us yes we understand statistics and this is not a representative sample it's highly skewed it's very Urban it's very suit boot it's not really the real voter but we're just having some fun right so we will have that up and you tell us so get your phones get your QR codes and then we'll do this in just a while amitab tiari so we'll have your visualization on the question of whether they'll get to 370 or whether they'll even cross 272 as rajdeep is asking what's your sense see essentially uh we've heard a lot about ABC category of seats in in newspapers so what we have tried to do is we have divided the 543 seats into a b c category a is strong and relatively strong so two out of three or three out of three wins in the last three election is a category strong relatively strong if the party has won only one out of three times in the last three elections it is category B which is relatively weak and if the party has not won any time in the last three elections it's a category C or a weak seat this is the breakup of seats of BJP so BJP it is very simple for BJP to attain a single simple majority because the a category seats of BJP are 262 the First Column which it has won two out of three or three out of three times in the last three elections so if it's able to maintain then it it will be very near the simple majority out of that if you see 147 seats which is more than half of the seats are from the northern region which means that the party has maxed out in the northern region and that's why it has to look for other regions to expand now if you see there are 82 seats in the B category which it has won only one out of three times here most of the seats are in eastern region where the focus of the BJP is odisa where it wanted to have an alliance or tried to have an alliance with the bjd then Bengal where sir is saying that is the murder of all battles half of those seats are there and then you look at the weak seats of BJP is 199 almost 200 some of these seats the Allies would have contested now in this if you see half of the seats are in south of India 98 and the balance or rather 61 seats are in eastern region so the 80% of weak seats of BJP are in south and east that's why BJP has a look South and a look East policy because here the focus effort because the Prime Minister and he's going to be here at the India today conclave and we're all looking forward to that the prime minister is spending a lot of time energy and effort in the South do you think that has some impact in this election or are they playing a much longer game work hard now benefit later or work hard now in the hope of benefiting right away no of course BJP is looking for some gains in the short term and longer gains in the long term like the alliance with TDP is part of its long-term strategy in the southern state because Chandrababu naido is already 73 years of age and the party may want to co-opt the party after it retires in what does co-opt mean co-opt means like what has happened with Shiva like what has happened with NCP like what is likely to happen with parties Regional parties who do not have stronger succession plan like jdu or a bjd you know in a sense therefore rul when you said you know the Modi sha election machine what stands out for me they're actually focusing and they've done it before we put out these graphics on 161 seats which they did not win last time or came second and third now think about it normally in life we first strengthen ourselves where we are strong and then think about our weak areas here you've got a party which has spent the last two years focusing on their weak areas you're seeing the Prime Minister now in South India traveling a lot there you're seeing him focusing on East India but they've actually planned this out there have been a minister assigned to every three Loa constituencies and most of them have been assigned to constituencies which the BJP did not win in 2019 and 14 so so that's where I say the election machine you see this is a this is very systematic use of your political Acumen along with resources and I keep maintaining all of this needs resources and your power machine I know gbll will disagree on the Ed point you use it but the fact is at the end of the day you have to give them credit for the way they are thinking South India R is about vot share it's about 2029 in Bengal if you look at their numbers 10 years ago they were nowhere in the ring race they were almost a single digit party today they are competing for power so it's been a 15 20e race that's a 20-year race in Kerala it's a possibly a 15-year race in Tamil Nadu so I can see where the BJP is going the real question in all your graphics rul you put is K BJP 370 or BJP 400 the question I ask where's the opposition where can the Congress cross 54 that's the question rul not where BJP can cross if the Congress can reach 100 actually I I was hoping one of our four guests would tell me how can the Congress if I was playing game theory how can the Congress cross 100 because if the Congress can cross 100 then the BJP can be brought below 300 and that should be the game if the opposition really was focusing on the 2024 election seriously unfortunately it appears all of us are taken away and believing charar so we're not thinking so far there were some uh opposition leaning cists who we' invited for this conversation they didn't even want to come now at least you can come and argue and make your point I mean they ultimately didn't even want to come so I don't want to say anything but that tells its own story so now we're out of time on this debate as I said pick up your phones and there's a QR code that's coming up on the screen this is by no means a representative sample it's not stratified it's none of that it's just we're just having some fun we're seeing what the pulse of the what the mood of the conclave audience is that's all that there is and be prepared to be trolled who will get trolled the the audience why will the audience get rolled because you will look Rahul and I are not voting we are only the judges here we are the neutral umpires this is the mood of the anous yeah it is yeah it's Anonymous but you're being treated as a collective the great and good of India also you know I know it's post lunch and stuff but some people haven't picked up their phones that's not nice please pick up your phones and there's a QR code in front of you so get involved in this let's otherwise and don't worry there are no that's the problem the also has that voter participation has to be high otherwise what's the point and don't worry there are no Central agencies at the moment here so when you voting and your and your electoral B Bond won't become public and the Electoral bonds are also unconstitutional so all that said please uh there it is and it's on your screen so if you can just scan that QR code go to the question uh I still see some people are very excited in doing it should we get our four guests to First give their numbers no we'll do that after at the end H while that's going on so now I hope everyone's doing it lot of people are doing while they're going on we'll get their numbers okay GBL you start let's finish this other you get PR no we finish then give the oh there it started okay so there it is so there are four four options here okay so very quickly I mean it's very simple will the BJP get less than 272 is this category you can click it if that's where you think they'll end up 272 to 325 is this category 32 26 to 370 is the third category and 370 plus is the fourth category so you got 90 seconds on the screen this group of people are not very nice they should vote oh you voted oh sub done by by the way can all the 11% stand up who no no making the Electoral Bond public the 11% who are saying less than 272 stand up you cannot make them Mr Mr Modi is coming tomorrow he wants you to be identified no no that's not fair we said it's we said it's very unfair it's very unfair I agree it's very unfair now have voted not voted this the front tables look like they very sophisticated to do this you can't be so sophisticated to do you've done this okay they've all voted you guys have voted so now 53 seconds to go g increasing now I hope you don't have some people outside voting for you you knew this was happening you didn't know what happening I I if I had managed to get somebody then you would have 90% Plus in the last in the because in this audience we don't get the same level of please understand I presume this is BJP not NDA no this is BJP only BJP this is only BJP 26 seconds to go will the BJP get 272 and less is 10% 177% 272 32 you have 18 seconds still is there anyone who hasn't voted say this is a waste of my time I'm not doing it I'm too classy and sophisticated for this I hope you guys joined in right okay good so now 10 seconds to go I think it's kind of stabilizing Raj likes to say as I said can we call this election now Raj 3 2 1 okay we can call it 10% have said BJP less than 272 if you want to identify yourself one last chance 272 to 325 is 16% 326 to 370 is 34% 370 plus is 40% now R I have a a see those who have said less than 2 272 it is my firm conviction yes they believe BJP will get more than 272 but they wanted to get less than 272 please talk to them and you will get this answer yeah but but you know those who've given 370 plus are also going to find it extremely difficult to tell me where that 370 number is coming but that for another day I will give the panel 10 seconds each what are your numbers your final numbers this will be repeated on Counting day yashan deshmuk you start if you were polling how much does the BJP get how much does the Congress get come general elections day very quickly 20 seconds very quickly BJP is number just the number 41% vote for the BJP 46% plus votes for the NDA no seats seats seats okaya your numbers no pradep will come last one second amitab tiwari your numbers okay see 400 looks attainable proram is helping BJP and it is it is it is please please please it is regain lost seats in 2019 attain add new seats and maintain maintain the 303 seats regain attain maintain now what's your number 400 is attainable okay gbll Nimar this is an election this is a vote for Modi Prime Minister Modi and for number number number morality number number I'm giving you number morality optimism development and Innovation how many of you will live by these acronyms how many 44 okay you know the thing is the BJP has okay Char so less than Rajiv Gandhi in 1984 that's another debate but go ahead Pradip no I don't have number give me a number no no I mean still the alliance no no Raj Alliance has to be formed in proper rather shape urisa maharash Tamil Nadu boss number I cannot say because of my some agreement I'm bind with those agreements I'm not supposed to reveal any kind of number any platform we do reveal number only once that the exit that is on the only R the number we out of time Raj we out of time this was a lot of fun if you want prad Gupta to give you a numbers pay him like serious amounts of money otherwise he doesn't give you just just getting a conclave ticket doesn't cut it uh but yashan deshmuk and amitab tiwari were a lot of fun J Nimar for coming here to the conclave thank you very much RAM is the concept that you've put on everybody's kind of getting onto these abbreviations we're very thankful for your time and delighted that you could join us but now let me say this because otherwise no one will watch television over the next couple of days if you think the election is a done deal in India picture whether the BJP crosses 400 or actually maybe the opposition does a bit better than what we think we'll know sometime in the third to fourth week of May but for all of you for joining us thank you very much and uh great to have all of you here [Music] hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen uh it's election time the 18th Lok saaba elections are upon us it's the world's largest Democratic exercise and a critical question is who will get how many numbers at the end of the day this is the numbers game across this country people want to know not just who will win but often by what margin that's what we're going to do over the next 45 minutes dive deep into those numbers try and understand seic and politically which way is the country heading so Rahul and I are joined today by a very special panel of people who are going to stake their reputation by telling us who's going to win come the third week of May not just who's going to win rul but by what margins who gets how many seats and all of it is being recorded gentlemen so you will be tested on the day the actual results come out so you've seen them dance on television this is where their numbers will dance for us we did this in 2019 just before the general election and this was one of the most widely tracked sessions it was buzzing on social media and Digital television for very long so we're very excited about doing an encore most of our cast and crew is the the same some faces have changed new Talent has emerged so allow me to introduce to you our guests pradep Gupta known largely for his dancing sometimes for his numbers uh access my India thank you very much pradep yashan deshmuk thank you very much for coming down all the way from Dubai we' got amitab tiari used to be a sharp numbers wizard on the banking side is now applying the same skill the same uh assessment analysis to election data I said I'm a bihari I mean I'm politics in my blood banking was something I was just doing for a living so thank you and gvl narar ra I thought he'd come all suited booted because this is the conclave he's coming is n afar so he's clearly telling us I'm NAA first numbers later I want to start by showing you the image as it stands this is the picture from the last Lo saaba it gives you a sense of the starting point in this election and then uh we'll talk to each of the experts about where we may end up sometime in May so BAS this is the last Lo SAA elections I'll just walk across and try and show this to you here this is where things stand so in the states marked out in Gray the BJP maxed it so Gujarat Rajasthan madhia Pradesh chattis gar they've done as well as they could the areas demarcated in this yellowish Stone are the states where there is some room to grow so they had an 85% strike rate in Maharashtra uh 38% in urisa 4 3 in West Bengal 64 in Assam 80% in up Andra Pradesh they had nothing so that's where you can grow so that's the headro that is available uh for the bhia J party and for the national Democratic Alliance to grow in the 2024 loka election so the alliance needs to increase its strike rate from 40% to 57% in 16 states to achieve this target elsewhere they've already peaked out in the Hindi Heartland so that's the starting point to ensure that rajdeep and I had to do the minimum amount of work and the experts did the maximum amount of work so we could juice them for uh them having come here we got them to send us some visualizations and some assessments on what they believe is critical what do they think will determine this election the Prime Minister says for BJP and Par for NDA will that happen so I'll start by getting pradep Gupta to explain what he thinks can change and since this is about siology it's about numbers we'll get them to explain some visualizations for you so the first visualization this is done by Pradip and his team at access my India it'll give you a sense of what can change so gup mik UT there's no music you only need to let the numbers dance uh here it is on your screen right now his assessment on what can change and then you can explain it so at access my India we have divided these Estates into three major groups the group number one where you can see there are 257 250 odd seats where NDA W 238 meaning 90% plus strike rate they scored the first and foremost for NDA to cross 400 marks they have to maintain their strike rate in these states and particularly if you can see in this group Maharashtra is very critical and important state to be seen so this is the group number one and of course the Karnataka where BJP has done very good in last Loca election but recently concluded Assembly Election BJP lost very badly to Congress so that is these are the three states Maharashtra Bihar and Karnataka in this group to be seen closely and of course Delhi where aadmi party and Congress has formed the Alliance so this will be interesting to see last time all three fought separately now the group two is where so can I just call that visualization so what we've done is we've divided this into two parts one is called happy Hunting Ground where the BJP has the chance of doing better than it did in the last elections and then we classifying tough seats tough seats where they haven't done well in the last elections and therefore uh how have things changed so Pradip there it is behind us so group two is where BJP has done fairly good they secured 60% of seats out of total 180 odd seats so here is some scope or Elbow Room to improve their Tally from 60% to may be to 80% which means about 30 to 40 odd seats there is a scope in this group and most important here is utar Pradesh and West Bengal in utar Pradesh last last time bsp and SP fought together and secured 15 seat among them and Congress won one seat so this will be interesting to see so there is a Elbow Room of about 16 seats in utar Pradesh Bengal BJP won 18 seats out of 42 seats and 24 seats won by TMC and one seat by two seats by Congress so here is another some scope one can say but it can go other way around as well particularly in Bengal considering last Assembly Election they decimated the BJP in that sense and the third Group which is very important and critical and everybody should focus particularly in NDA side where there are about 100 odd seats the NDA could won only five meaning 5% strike rate 95% strike rate in favor of opposition last time also last time time Aid DMK had the alliance with ND n BJP or NDA meaning they have won one seat out of 40 seats in Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu and pondicheri of course then the Punjab this time also all four party seems to be contesting separately last time akali Dal and BJP had the alliance as n and both of them won two seats each so this is the Battleground for NDA particularly try and improve their t as much as possible to come close to 400 seats but essentially but essentially Pradip you're where I want to challenge you on this is that you're basically going by the premise that 2024 is a done deal that it's all about whether the BJP gets 300 to 325 on its own and with allies goes to 350 360 or the BJP itself goes to 330 to 50 and with allies goes to 400 am I correct then essentially you're telling me despite the fact that there is possible losses in Maharashtra double digit Maharashtra Bihar to some extent the potential in Karnataka for the opposition this election is basically about whether the BJP Peaks at 320 325 or whether it goes above 350 that's what the game is Right Raj I didn't say the done deal all I saying is this is the number game May play out in the forthcoming election so that's the reason why you know in Karnataka where BJP won like 26 seats out of 28 seats only won by JDs and this time JDS is coming in the fold of NDA which is the BJP fold last time they were with the Congress Alliance Maharashtra also categorically I mentioned so these are the three four states in the group one need to be watch very carefully if BJP is able to maintain their strike rate so so basically what you're saying BJP has to maintain its strike rate across what some would call the northwest monsoon because if you look from Goa all the way to jarand and I'm including jarand for a moment in the north the BJP won 85% of the seats in this entire belt essentially 230 to 240 of their total number of seats 303 came from here you're saying a they have to either retain that and then add in South India where which has been their traditional weak point or the Lotus has to bloom in the East where between a Bengal possibly odisa and the Northeast the BJP could make up for any potential losses It suffers in either North or West India am I broadly correct yes you are absolutely right CH good thank you no so if you look at what's at the back in Andra Pradesh which is where gvl comes from there's now an alliance with the janasena and Chandrababu naidu's TDP remember last time the NDA had zero they 25 seats up for grabs uh gvl uh if you look for example at urisa there is supposed to be an alliance between the BJP and the bjd they had only eight seats last time 21 now the point here gvl is you're stitching alliances which just on the surface don't make sense typically the number one party and number two party Al I mean have you ever seen the number one party and their Prime opponent come together I mean that simply doesn't make electoral sense usually how are you making these things happen you know this is quite like in Punjab the app and the Congress couldn't really come together because they were one and two what is this magic band that you have which can make the winner and his prime opponent come together in an alliance rul this hasn't happened yet so it's uh it's premature for me to comment on this but this is an election in after four decades I have been a close Watcher of Elections I haven't seen an election like this for 40 years you have never seen a loksabha election where you could pick a winner well before election this has not happened even in 2014 this has not happened even in 2019 every time you expected it to be hung Parliament or no single party majority government here we are talking about a BJP tally at 325 or 350 so so one fundamental difference is opposition is decimated well before the elections have been even announced okay so no decimated in in the conclave not by because there's a sense just a minute to push you this is there is a sense that this is the bjp's ploy to physically intimidate the opposition or politically intimidate like the West Indies would do on a cricket field you went on a cricket field there were four fast Bowlers there was clyve Lloyd the opposition was decimated similarly there's Narendra Modi G as cly Lloyd there are four fast Bowlers Amit sha you can add another three the opposition already feels yeah India today concl that this is psychological when you look at the numbers why you then plucking around looking for allies there why are you taking congressman from other parties giving tickets to former congressman who switched over are you as certain about these numbers as perhaps you're telling us here that's a different debate was Cyd but go ahead no absolutely Raj the question of either the victory or the magnitude of Victory is not in question but this is the time that anybody who wants a political future for himself wants to align with the BJP States like for example Andra Pradesh which you talked about the parties are very clean to align with the BJP Jag will feel so cheated he helped you on so many occasions in the Raj last moment leave him no I I think it's not for you to comment for any individual I have not seen any party making a comment like this it is our right to align with any party to further our prospects the bigger mandate is not 20 2024 election the real real Target is 2047 viasit bhat is our agenda we are not fighting just for a majority in this election to realize that dream it's an aspirational election you see normally in election like this voters will feel unenthusiastic about the election because the outcome is already known no Prime Minister Modi G the way he's he's creating that aspirational India people will turn out in larger numbers then why tie up with the Chandra Babu NAU who called the same prime minister hardened terrorist before the 2019 election you see my point is if you're so confident of your numbers why do you even need these alliances is that a recognition that there are limitations especially south of the vindas or in a state like orisa and therefore because this time has to be about 400 or about 350 plus Sam election forget what's happened in the past be flexible and tie up open door policy anyone wants to come into our party please come this is the time no Raj there is I I think it's a the larger mandate as I mentioned to you is vixit bat you need to get as many political parties on board you need to get as many state governments to part partner with you in this larger Mission because we already have a 2/3 majority parliamentary passage of bills is not really Our concern but for for realizing your dream of viasit bhat you certainly need to get everyone on board okay so that was pradep gupta's analysis I want to come now to yashan deshmuk because we asked yashan the question will the BJP cross the 370 marks so there's a visualization that's coming up on on your screen take a look at it very carefully and then yashwant can explain because you've broken this up into three categories seats which are tough fights for the BJP that's the first category there are 100 such seats the second category is where it's BJP versus Congress in a direct fight the third is where it's BJP versus a regional party Yash just I want all of you to basically reconstruct everything into very very simple three figures 543 is the total Lo SAA strength remember three numbers 100 200 and 243 easy what we have simply done is the 100 seats where the BJP is completely absent forget about number one forget about number two BJP is not even number three or four maybe 100 seats BJP is just absent look at the 2014 and 19 vote shares over here BJP pulled 7.3% in these 100 seats and 5.88% in these 100 seats in 2019 BJP might be very happy to double triple its vote share even it then it reaches about 15% vote share will that convert into any seat n big no maybe one or two here and there that's fine I mean you know you may have an odd in tendam one kanyakumari oneu those kind of things that aberration is fine but zil second is 200 seats this is where the meat is BJP versus the Congress direct fight look at the Gap of the BJP and the Congress vote share almost about 20% plus in 14 20 25 almost touching 25% in 2019 and there the BJP strike rate look at that 171 out of 200 in 14 and 185 out of 200 2019 and as per our motn which will come in right now which we did in January by the way BJP was almost touching 190 out of these 200 so what does it tell you that between the BJP and the Congress these 200 seats where the direct fight is the BJP is leading over the Congress by more than 20% votes there are number of states where BJP is Ming voting more than 50% number of states where the BJP is poing more than 60% votes V so no matter how much nayra works out this figure is not going to change just the way the first block is not going to change BJP no matter how much tries nothing is going to change in the first block no matter how much Congress is going to try nothing's going to change in the second block third block is the most critical that is 243 where it is BJP versus the regional parties that is where the meat is now out of here 2014 BJP was about 27% look at the BJP vote share going up to 35% Plus in 2019 can it go even further they got 108 in 14 118 in 2019 can they take it from here can they go further north from here that's the big question so question about 370 Rahul and 400 plus it's not about the Zone one and zone two it's the zone three where it is going to come but therefore basically since we are also entering IPL season when I look at your numbers if I was a captain of any of the if I was Mumbai Indians Captain I want the Congress Bowlers at me basically what you're saying the perfect matchup for the BJP is the Congress where there is Congress the BJP is in a comfortable position where it is a regional party it's a tough situation and there are certain traditional areas like Kerala for example where the BJP is still a single digit party in terms of of v share broadly therefore I want the Congress to oppose me in as many seats as possible it's the Congress which is the kamor c as we go to this election AB absolutely for the opposition Alliance their weakest link is the Congress for the NDA their weakest link by the way are actually their Alliance Partners in many states for example in Bihar those who are contesting on BJP ticket have much better chance to win than the alliance partner jdu ticket similarly in Maharashtra those who are contesting on a BJP ticket are likely to win much better than those who are contesting on Ikat shinde or Ajit Paar ticket it's that easy however one interesting thing which Riv has happened after our motn poll came out gv's party all of a sudden realized that you know putting up a manufacturing unit in certain area from the ground zero in a green field investment is a long shot acquisition is better no sir let respond this is very important because each time the mood of the nation is put out by the India Today team the BJP takes that very seriously last time we had the mood of the nation which showed that the the India Alliance wasn't doing well in Maharashtra you broke sharat paar's party you took akat chind away from udav takre then the next time we put out a poll which said that they weren't doing well in Bihar they took nitish Kumar back and took him so you know it's very difficult to do data when the factors that make up the data keep Chang changing they basically they become no no basically BJP should put in the brackets Ma and Ma is not Mukesh Amani it's mergers and acquisition you know you're you're very good at it you're very good at merger and acquisition to be very honest our leadership our politics is not media driven we are not going to change our politics because I'm telling you I don't want to name our leaders but they we certainly look at media with respect but our decisions are never never ever driven by media so therefore don't uh so why that's my home state why did you break these two parties if you were so confident you see what as as as yashwant has pointed out BJP very strong when it comes the to the Congress when it comes to the regional parties you're in more difficult what so why break a regional party or why acquire a regional party I think it's very unfair to ask me why they split up you should ask those parties what did they find so uncomfortable within them possibly they say they found the Ed uncomfortable no then then Congress should have split several times should congress not be splitting how many congress leaders have been raed should should every other party should DMK not be splitting should they should have come back and joined the NDA so should the BRS not be splitting so don't be unfair parties which have SP split they have split because of their internal turmoil because they are their inability to accept their own leadership because they are corrupt parties because they are family-driven parties there is no scope for leadership to gain and emerge otherwise if what you said is right every party should be splitting daily they're corrupt only while they in the opposition once they come to you they're a washing machine again you see this you see it is you in the media who keep targeting us like this we have never see we have never given a clinch to any anybody because he has joined either the NDA or BJP so that's not fair if there are any such cases please approach the courts what prevents the opposition from going to the court it's only these are only political allegations two things can be true because it's an equation ultimately either the BJP sees the mood of the nation and makes changes in states where they aren't doing well which is possible which is my theory or the BJP already knows what the reality is and the mood of the nation captures the reality and therefore you have to act basis that reality which means that we do a great job with M no no we give we give ourselves too much of credit the BJ the BJP is here here I must here I must be on the side of Modi sh if you don't want to take be very careful about what you're saying is saying I'm on the side of mod sh I don't know where this is going only to the no no only to the extent it's a supreme election machine you and I do one poll the BJP today has resources to do half a dozen polls per week tracking it on a day-to-day basis it requires lots of money and they have no shortage of it and they getting they get I'll give you an example of a seat in Maharashtra I know they've changed their candidate specifically after they did four rounds of polls in that constituency now you and I and jashwant or anyone even pradep Pradip may be doing it for them uh which is another matter but the fact is you're getting therefore data of a kind that we've never seen But I disagree with Raj I think all parties are doing polling they do very extensive polling in fact fact the pollster of the Congress in 2009 was so horribly wrong that he convinced the Congress top leadership that they were winning I'm not making this up is this not true is this not true so it's not as if they aren't polling they are polling as extensively as rigorously it's just that they have terrible I never said no no I have I have also done polls for my own part but let me tell you as a pollster they have they have no their nose to the ground they will not if you come and tell them I'm telling you if I do a poll and go and tell them Tamil Nadu we are sweeping they'll say our leadership no no but Raj one again let me let me ask Raj Raj is this not true that in 2019 the internal polling of the congress party had convinced the top leadership of the congress party that they were actually winning that when the result came out it came as a shock to them because their internal polling they were spending money on it it's not as if money wasn't being spent was telling them that they winning a this because Congress doesn't live a this question should be posed to the Congress leadership B the fact is if I have 10 Rupees in my pocket there's only so much I can do if I have 100 or thousand rupees in my pocket I have far more options the BJP as I said is a sophisticated resourcer election machine but having said that no but if you have 10 Rupees how much of that gets spent on polling and how much gets kept that's also a fact well they could save all the money Raj they could save all the money and simply read India today that's fine with them because I remember the four Estates boss asked me to you know red flag that was in 15th August issue last year uh I was talking to AP and you know Bim I was rather I I I end up learning every time something and he asked me what is the red flagging that the BJP I said four states that is Karnataka biar Maharashtra and Bengal and look at the way BJP has moved around that first thing the lowest hanging fruit JDS in Karnataka 10% vote share they got them in I don't know why Congress did not do it God knows second thing Bihar the unthinkable as they of course Maharashtra is a kind of they are doing an installments whatever they are trying to do and Bengal is going to be the mother of all election let me tell you one thing which Pradip would agree with me and even Amita would agree with me this election all the other states 30 as you may call it CI States and States everything is this way or that way there is only one state where actually there is going to be a fight for each and every bloody seat that is going to be West Bengal okay let's get amitab tari then to give us I just want to tell everyone since we want to make the conclave experience as immersive and as experiential as possible we want you all to vote so we did some jugar in the way that India can do jugar and India Today can do jugar and hopefully it'll work out well I will throw up that same QR code remember from the debate which you guys were eating and watching and I was working uh from that debate we'll put out that QR code which will have four options of where you think the results of the poll will be and before anybody trolls us yes we understand statistics and this is not a representative sample it's highly skewed it's very Urban it's very suit boot it's not really the real voter but we're just having some fun right so we will have that up and you tell us so get your phones get your QR codes and then we'll do this in just a while amitab tiari so we'll have your visualization on the question of whether they'll get to 370 or whether they'll even cross 272 as is asking what's your sense see essentially U we've heard a lot about ABC category of seats in in newspaper so what we have tried to do is we have divided the 543 seats into a b c category a is strong and relatively strong so two out of three or three out of three wins in the last three election is a category strong relatively strong if the party has won only one out of three times in the last three elections it is category B which is relatively weak and if the party has not won any time in the last three elections it's a category C or a weak seat this is the breakup of seats of BJP so BJP it is very simple for BJP to attain a single simple majority because the a category seats of BJP are 262 the First Column which it has won two out of three or three out of three times in the last three elections so if it's able to maintain then it will be very near the simple majority out of that if you see 147 seats which is more than half of the seats are from the northern region which means that the party has maxed out in the northern region and that's why it has to look for other regions to expand now if you see there are 82 seats in the B category which it has won only one out of three times here most of the seats are in eastern region where the focus of the BJP is odisa where it wanted to have an alliance or tried to have an alliance with the bjd then Bengal where sir is saying that is the Mur of all battles half of those seats are there and then

Channel: India Today

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Id: hr7c5DOC0m0

Length: 122min 40sec (7360 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 12 2024