Who's Winning 2024 | The 2024 Final Seat Share Deals | State By State Deep Dive On NewsX

[Music] welcome to a brand new edition of statistically speaking where we will decod and analyze the most important data for the 2024 elections in episode one we look at the Delhi uh Alliance and of course we'll cover a few other states as well the final Alliance deals for 2024 elections have been done the Congress has managed to pull together key alliances with the am admi party akilesh Tas Stalin and Omar Abdullah but an important M remains mam banerji of course and as for the BJP they have cracked deals in Andra Pradesh Bihar and Maharashtra to and in Tamil Nadu as well but in the state of Maharashtra the NDA final seat sharing deal is yet to be revealed between BJP akat shindel Shiva and Ajit Paar LED NCP we first take a look at the state of Delhi well if 2019 elections are being concerned and should be related to Delhi was a three-way fight between the amadm party uh the Congress and the BJP that worked to the bjp's uh Advantage uh who managed to sweep the capital winning all seven this time the picture or the situation is a tad bit different the am admi party and the Congress are fighting in Alliance with the arm admy party contesting four and the Congress contesting on three seats although the app is facing a huge crisis with their convenor and the chief minister locked up inthar jail the prospects could be better in front of uh the Modi Juggernaut we'll talk about this with our guest joining us on the show at this point in time is Mr ran Malik BJP leader we also have Dr Puja tripati Congress spokesperson who joins us on the show Mr Des ratan Nigam political analyst with us on the program as well Sumit Pi senior political commentator joined us on the show too Advocate Manas taper political analyst will be joining us momentarily Rishi bagri political analyst with us on the program as well Dr puati I'll begin with you and thank you for speaking with us uh as always it's important to understand that the BH Jan party was a force according to them not to be reckoned with in Delhi in 2019 do you think anything has changed for them if you go by the McD elections if you go by the re-election of the am admy party I'm not even talking about the Congress over here it's a big deal that you've been able to crack this this this partnership with the amadm party in Delhi and have three seats to contest from uh do you think that this Alliance that you have forged with the arm admy party despite their predicament right now is going to reap fruit definitely when it comes to definitely when it comes to Delhi we have seen amadm party's performance in the last two uh with an elections and this speaks volumes about uh am admy party as a as a very credible uh what do you say political force in the Heartland in the capital of India and that's when we talk about India Alliance when we talk about giving people's issue a priority in the in the political landscape that this Alliance is important and we're happy to collaborate we're happy to have alliance any Alliance partner in every state Delhi being one and uh op is taking the lead which is with I think with around every Regional player with us and um we are happy we are hoping to uh crack it with this loab elections all right Mr Nigam uh is is this alliance any threat to the bhy jata party those seven seats that were won uh by the BJP in 2019 do you see uh any kind of increment coming bti Jan party's way or do you think that the vote share perhaps because of this particular partnership uh May differ well let me tell you uh when you talk of alliance in Delhi for that matter in many states it is an abject surrender of the Congress to the smaller parties I'm not saying uh Regional parties or otherwise the fact remains uh when a party which is a national party gives a majority of seats to the others which means it's a survival strategy it's in danger of you know dying therefore a survival strategy based on object surrender is something I I think voters are very closely watching One secondly if you look at all what kind of an alliance is this every Alliance partner is having its own Manifesto which is not being approved by anybody else other parties their Alliance Partners none of them have approved not a single statement that uh the regional parties who are in Alliance their Manifesto has been approved by the other so what kind of an alliance it is one secondly uh if you look at delhi's vote aadmi party and the congress's vote share in the last loab elections and mind you loksabha elections have fought on a very different parameter than the assembly elections we saw it in uh you know Karnataka we saw it in madha Pradesh we saw it in Rajasthan we saw it in chattis gar where the BJP had lost the Assembly Election but swept the loksabha elections so we will not be able to compare you know the Assembly election results or the pchat elections to that of Lo SAA election where the BJP and Grand Modi and Grand BJP and Amit Sha's you know as you call it jugernaut which I never call it jugernaut it's it's a emotional body set party which means that they really work hard with passion with grassroot connect and and the boot level workers now uh when there if you look at the Delhi vote share BJP was more than 50% and if you look at the Congress had more vote share than the arm admy party last time and if you combine it it comes down to about I think 39% uh which is still much much less given the margin of error of 3 or 4% it still Falls below therefore Delhi I think it will be again a sweep for the BJP uh all seven seats would be going to BJP changing some uh you know candidates here and there they have fine- tuned it and I don't see any change in the ooral result from 2019 really sui P what is going to be that differentiating factor for the BJP this time around uh do you think that the popularity of the BH janata party has been intact it's been uh faultless or do you think that the McD elections you know which the BJP lost to the arm admi party would have little to no effect on the psyche of the voter when he goes out to vote for this loab elections uh Vinnie thank you very much for having me on your show when it comes to the Parliamentary elections in India people vote for the Prime Minister let's be very clear by prime minister K bana but when I look at India Alliance there is no CH as on it we don't know who who is possibly possible candidate who can become so that's the biggest uncertainty there here you have modi's track record of delivery you have track record of development here you have uncertainty and on the top of that you know traditionally where whomever Congress has tied up with if you look at akesh yadav if you look at wherever they have done alliances with that system has miserably failed even if they come to the power then they are not able to hold to the power now the problem here is a double whammy now with congress's that curse which it carries that unfortunately now you have Arin krial G in jail you're the convenor of admy party in jail and today Mr Miss K Kavita is also arrested by CBI now she is given 5 days reward the liquor scam is getting bigger and bigger and bigger and we let's not forget you there will be very soon and I might get involved into it because remember panu said he has paid 13 cres Shin krial so if all these things come in and you have a allian part who has such brilliant records and scams are not only limited to liquor scam there's a liquor scam there's a school scam there's a jelbo scam there's a MOA Clinic scam there's a DTC scam there's a WBO scam these are the six like I at the top of the Mind recall there were more than that we need now imagine in all these cases CBI Ed and ni and some will start coming into it and you are such a beautiful Alliance partner who inar jail whose ministers are resigning from ministership from being an MLA and being a member of admy party because they see party according to Mr Anan who resigned yesterday if you look at the current scenario the people of the Delhi whoever would even think of voting amadm party yeah 10 20% vot share and all that will be there 10 20% voter will be there but beyond that the voters will move more to BJP because Congress and arm admy party has got together now what is the only vulp or the option left for the voter to move to BJP so I am predicting we on your Show the V share of BJP is going to rise because of the election engineering and all and the rightful candidates what they put in and also because of the debacle of amadm party because of what Rahul Gandhi has been saying and by the way I want to ask Puja pu Mrs K said couple of days back model and she also said that you know this is what we are going to do this against all the districts she was reading the arm army party Manifesto and she conveniently said Arin could not from you and one thing is giving complete statehood to Delhi that is also one of the six things she mentioned now what is the position of Congress on this what is the position of India Alliance on this what is the position of all gaks or the alliance Partners on this we don't know with these things happening where Sunita G goes and announces her own Manifesto and says this is the what the Indian Alliance is going to deliver across the India with with a state let's let's also talk about uh you know the other big state utar Pradesh is of course the big one here always has been utar Pradesh in 2019 was the bjp's biggest win which propelled Prime Minister Modi to a second consecutive term while the BJP contested 78 seats out of 80 and 162 out of them the opposition was divided between the samajwadi party and bsp's mahag Gat bandan on one side and the Congress on the other the NDA this time has got additional support from Jan Chi's rld while the opposition is being led by akiles and rahul's Alliance the bsp of course decided to go solo and their fight is expected to be all about survival so with BJP fulfilling the ram Mand promise and Yogi adityan pitching the double inine key sar's good work how will utar Pradesh be different this time around is the key question Manas I'll come to you if if if that really is something that the water is going to consider then the ram Mand is expectedly going to be one of the pivotal factors that is going to be kept in mind if you remember the Modi government in the first 5 years of their tenure did talk about the Pand but were chided and admonished and targeted by the opposition now that promise has been fulfilled uh is this going to in fact you know bring that difference between the katne and the kar which the BJP is trying to establish to get votes Ram Mand as a factor is not only a factor is the factor this election if it is though BJP is not playing it heavily but voters are going to be around Ram mander's flank the BJP is very smart I think it's a very smart move from the from the side of the BJP uh they so so what they're trying to do here is here uh they have they have in bjp's statement or the last interviews the Prime Minister has given in the last couple of days you'll not see him talking about bhagan Ram or Ram Mand there he's talking about his vision of India vixit bhat one point his development which is post 2014 and RAM Mand is also there so he knows the big factor the big player in this election is obviously bhan Ram's Mand and then he does not want to he does not want to let the voters be overshadowed by the ram Mand that they forget other achievements which as for him are also very important and as for BJP also it's very important so what they're playing is like we give you safe India we give you develop India we give you better infrastructure we brought new regime of GST we bought article 370 we took it away so so these things they are playing it more better in terms of in the presentation because they know the nerves of people of Hindus with the ram Mand have already been touched so all those people who were expecting over and above Ram so all those parameters so that untouched vot bank or that swinging vot Bank of 2 to 3% which would have gone against them they're also targeting them and not only that with the kind of homework which they have done and specifically prime minister by giving bhat ratna to Ms Swami Natan to LK adwani G so the by giving it to LK adwani what happens is the Old Guard the the founders of BJP and and those people who were from jansan were feeling that somehow that older BJP people or people from Jansen have been left out with this they are also been silent they are also been happily accepting that theyve given respect to LK adwani G now it is let's move ahead he's doing a great job let's support him so that also is also on on the contrary helping him out then then Ms Swami Natan do that Ms swam natan's committee's recommendation is a different thing but optically giving him bhat ratna helps him Garner the vot so this is what is happening Chri sa with by giving him the bhat ratna so he also gets his grandson in his in in his Alliance so this all things works out for BJP very well so it's a silent strategy working out for BJP they know the massive thing what they could have done was bhagan Ram's Mand and there were there were disputes while while while people were saying that AB it was not made up completely and everything but we knew that it was a political makeup it was done it was a great thing everyone wanted it now it is live people are going having DS and everything so opposition does not have much to say so where is that opposition stand of parallell countering bhagan Ram's Mand are there any takers I don't think there is any taker all those people in the Congress also who believed to counter it are not actually by willingness or by the uh heart of it are countering it they are also joining BJP or they are also leaving Congress on this particular agenda that why should we counter bhan Ram's Pand or why should we we speak against it it is okay we wanted this we all wanted it it's good that prime minister Narendra Modi could do that though it's a supreme court you can have various leg but that bill was there and the bill is now completed so I don't think these factors are actually you have to have a counter point when he's providing a vixit bhat 2047 what is your vixit bhat narrative what is your Narrative of GST you say that you'll scrap this GST and bring a new GST okay that's a great thing if you think that's a great but what is that new GST what is that GST 2.0 what is your GST that vision is not out if you say you want to scrap article 370 okay let's understand that why do you want to scrap it are the people of the valley not happy or are you going to give a counternarrative which is much bigger and better than what the present uh dispensation is giving no so that is not happening you are trying to counter whatever the prime minister or BJP wants you have done you want to counter it okay that's a that could be a valid debate point but what are the what are the content the content is not there headlines are there they we'll do this but how are you going to do it and why do opposition have to work even harder here is why in the presentation part is because you're already not in power you have to have a level of communication than the people in power because they are they have access to everything better than you the be it with the media the social media the money power everything is the presentation point of what wise and the tools they have more bigger and better than you have so what you have to do is your communication has to be clear your drawing board and drawing board understanding has to be conveyed to the people very much which in a sensible in a communicable manner to them so that is not happening you are scrapping whatever prime minister Narendra Modi has done that is one part of it but what is your alternative politics do you have a better politics you do you have a better stand so that is something which is missing so when we when we talk about Farm laws you want to scrap it out that farmers are not there the farmers are not happy unemployment is there what is your strategy Yes Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP have not made the farmers happy yes unemployment is there but are you going to create something better which gives employment which makes the farmer happy that is a missing link you have to fill that missing L okay let's talk about Bihar now the Bihar elections in 2024 have been marked by the state government change that precedes the election and nitish Kumar's return to the NDA now due to his return the seat distribution in 2024 is similar to the seat distribution again in 2019 in last elections the ND is saw BJP and the jdu contest 17 seats each with chak paswan ljp contesting six in 2024 the jdu and ljp have sacrificed a seat each to accommodate the Hindustan awam morcha and rlm the India Alliance in Bihar was led by rjd in 2019 and it is still being led by rjd but with more seats in 2019 the rjd contested 19 but this time they will contest 23 after uh a few exits well this is obviously expected to what was going to happen in biar Rishi uh Mr Raman Malik also joins us on the broadcast Rishi bagri uh Bihar obviously has seen this new wave there has been uh uh endorsement by nitish Kumar if I can call it by returning back to the fold of the NDA how is that likely to impact the results uh of the Lok SAA in uh in the state of bhar no you need to Wi you need to understand biar vote very differently I mean it votes very differently in the Lok saaba and if you see even if you see in last 30 years they have been very Pro NDA voting pattern observed in the biar even in 2009 when when BJP was it it uh at its lowest they got the biggest alley from the biar so you need to understand the Bihar always vote uh in a very different Manner and when it comes to the national election it is it is biased towards voting toward National issues in National parties and especially in the BJP fold so the NDA always have the advantage in the Bihar when it comes to the loka election it doesn't although it doesn't enjoy that advantage in the Assembly Election but it do enjoy because people do vote Rising above their cast and about their J paath everything like that so that is one thing and secondly you need to also understand that the bargaining power of the of the NDA of the BJP has gone up substantially High whereas the bargaining power of the Congress has gone down I mean if you see the numbers of seats which Congress is fighting today is less uh than what it used to fight in 2019 or 14 then you see the BJP BJP is fighting more seats in fact if you see the the baining power has gone up with the BJP in most of the states and even in Bihar they have able to you know pitch their own people in some other parties name also so that was also visible so I think that is going to happen and Bihar is going to give you at least 35 to 35 Plus seat two or three seats may go here and there that's a different thing but most of the seats may come to the India poort because the bargaining power of BJP has in fact increased I just give you a small example although that example is from up if you see they have just allied with the rld with just two seats I mean rld was being offered almost eight seat by the samajwadi and the congress party but they left that eight seat offer and they chose two seat in NDA front so you can imagine this is the this is a very classical difference because they understand they are very clear two is better than eight in the bush so this is the basic thing which is happening even in Maharashtra and you go to any other places you see the bargaining power of the BJP has increased substantially they are extracting more seeds than their from their allies whereas in whereas in MBA in the India Alliance the same thing Congress bargaining power has gone down in fact udav takre are depleted udav takre is fighting 21 seats it's a higher seats five seats more four or five seats higher than what Congress the full Congress is fighting so you can imagine even a depleted sharat Paar is fighting 10 seats so Congress is just fighting 16 17 seats in in a big state like Maharashtra how he's how the tally of Congress will even cross 100 if it's seeded away all the important seed to their allies so that is a one thing which we need to understand so they don't have a face uh they don't have a vision statement uh all the vision state are very uh vague GST what they are going to do 370 what they are going to do demonetization what they are going to do SC What alternative we are going to give we are not saying anything so you don't have any leader you don't have any Vision your alliance are very amorphous in nature any Alliance can walk walk out of your you know India Alliance anytime they wish so as what is the what is the probability thatav Tak won't walk out to to the IND IND Government after the this if they get five or six seats and if if they get some offer from the ndf and they might walk out you never know that so the amorphous situation of let let's let's also talk about the most interesting State now uh electorally and you know ambition wise for the BJP well the biggest blow for the India Alliance was uh of course mam banery who refused to go into an alliance with the Congress this means that the battle in Bengal remains a three-way fight what might or white what might not be a spite for the Congress is that they have managed to stitch an alliance with the left so this means that while all the four parties the BJP TMC Congress and left contested all all the 42 seats in 2019 this time Congress is contesting 13 and the left is contesting 25 as the third front in a battle that is being fought between TMC and the BJP who will be contesting on all seats Mr Raman Malik BJP leader also joins us on the show Mr Malik are you there with us I can't see you Mr ran Malik Mr Malik can you hear me sir I can hear you is my voice coming yes I can hear you now sir so 18 was uh the tally of the bti J party in 2019 you know there is the India Alliance in West Bengal uh last time of course some some of these challenges were not there for the BJP what do you anticipate is going to happen in Bengal considering you know the back and forth also that keeps on happening between the ruling dispensation and mam Banner's party see uh one thing for sure what is going to happen is that in the last time when we were expecting about 27 seat there were few seats which we lost with a very small margin they are definitely going to be coming back uh the so-called Indie Alliance is not to be seen anywhere in Bengal and uh Congress itself you know I do not understand the alliances of the left and Congress in uh in Bengal and they're fighting against each other in Kerala so but it's a confused State of Affairs but then confused State of Affairs in Congress have become synonymous with each other uh having said that uh let's let's uh you know kind of pick up uh things please understand Congress at best is not doing above 15% of the total seats that they've done they've done about 40 uh 43 one time and 50 52 on the other in the last two election so that would be roughly about 12 10 12% 13% of what they have totally fought that is the their turnaround ratio now today when we are talking about this election the Congress has reduced itself to probably around less than 300 uh contesting seats not even that so being relevant opposition party also becomes a fight for them which has to be understood now the most important thing when we talk about this election is the fear of uh democracy dying and when I say the fear of democracy dying is the Congress especially uh the pory around Mr Gandhi and Mr Gandhi himself are killing Congress they're killing the parallel to the Democracy Congress was the parallel to the Democracy in the last two elections but they're killing it one has to understand on the broader perspectives that this election also shows what is wrong with the Indian political sense and that is where the problem lies so that is the part two the part three which is most important which should not be taken aside what is happening in Bengal and what is happening in Bear the kind of comments and the kind of actions that are coming through whether it is the luu and Company and family or whether is Mam banery and her Syndicate they both are showing how wrong in a democracy your choices can go and how heavy a price can be paid not just by this the the main opposition to uh that idea but also those people who are not relevant let's say what Congress is facing in Bengal the kind of alienation the kind of uh attacks on their workers the same way the smaller parties in bhar people who had forgotten the generation that have forgotten the gundaraj have re witnessed it and this is what is this election all about yes the states have chosen over and over a time they've always shown the majority of you know voting in a particular pattern when it comes to the national elections for the Lo saaba they have chosen to uh act different elect different when it comes to vidan SAA and that's a majority of it but then yes your question is very pertinent and the question is widely to the nation that what happens wrong when you select wrong and that is what Bengal and biar had seen bear has seen some time correction some cost Corrections uh Bengal needs an overhaul it needs to be washed okay all right okay appreciate that Dr Puja daati how do you respond to that of course Mr Malik has also said that the Congress up till 2014 and 19 used to be the Principal opposition the principal contender you know they had a chance but now it seems that image that pedigree has severely eroded I disagreed with and before that before I answer your question this is kind of unfair this 5 is to one that you have pitched me against these five people BJP supporters direct undirect and there's one me having an so man is on your side and and not on I always I always favor the underdog so I'm on your side as well so it's four so it's 4 is to three 5 is to one so you are a moderator no it's not no it's not I won't let that happen I won't let that happen trust me okay so when we say when we have formed an alliance when we have formed an alliance we have decided to come together Congress being the largest national party it was its duty duty towards the country Duty towards the cause of people to take a back seat and to let uh to let Regional players who have a substantial uh political cloud in their area of influence to take the lead and that's what exactly that's what alliance Dharma is we we didn't we didn't we didn't get eroded we compromised on some seats definitely some some somewhere uh the partners went on to announce and everything but we have to understand that it's a democratic Alliance everyone has an equal say in it and when we talk about Maharashtra Shi SAA has a substantial say in it when we talk about utar Pradesh uh SP has substantial say when we talk about Tamil Nadu DMK has a substantial saying it's not like nda's bhanu MAA kba where where you get a where you get a one liner statement that you fight on two seats or you'll fight on three seats and people just start questions so the Democratic Alliance and seat sharing has been taken seat sharing has been decided democratically and we are fighting as a one single Force to save the idea of India and that's his question I've been hearing you know uh about how Ram Mand is impacting how Congress does not have a vision it's it's very ironic to see this because B Jan party doesn't have a Manifesto till now few days where they they dra they had formed a Manifesto committee and that's the seriousness they think that you know bringing in Ram Mand issue bringing in article 370 raking in pulama raking in um Armed Forces bill look at their their official um um advertisement that went out from the social media handles and all that army uniforms and army songs and things like that where when there is an election commission advisory that you'll not use Defense Forces for your political propaganda and messaging nothing uh so when um Arun goil uses ramj photos and goes on to campaigning election commission's advisories thrown out of the window everywhere this is a election where people the l n survey csds survey came out yesterday and 62% people feel that unemployment is a bigger issue a majority people feel that inflation is a bigger issue that corruption is a b issue and pran Modi after 10 years in office heing and just and and this is the political discourse we have been reduced to nobody's talking about the 82% unemployment rate here we are talking people were saying that Congress visual statement Congress came up with a state of art Manifesto which gives a right to apprenticeship which gives an urban rural employment guarantee act which gives promises MSP to Farmers which Rahul Gandhi also had a word of caution for agencies in and around when that Manifesto was released uh do you think that should form part be be part of any political discourse today and you know the Prime Minister himself iterated that out of the 100% Ed cases less than 3% are against politicians please we need we are not saying that just for the sake of argument just for the sake of argument this is a public discourse that Indian Express report that 25 people who turned Court who joined BJP came out scot-free and 8 cases were dropped here Mr Malik was listing out Corruptions what happened to the Sha sh chit fund Camp nobody goes and knocks on the doors of bisa nobody goes on knocks on the doors of Naran Rani 23 people who joined BJP Scot okay let me take a quick response from Mr Nigam on what you have just said about the sh chit scam and then then we then we move move on move on to Punjab let let him respond let him respond let's be fair let Mr Nigam respond to what you have just said Mr Nigam reene in fact let me slightly bring some certain amount of legal awareness among the parties everybody in fact the viewers once the matter goes to the court the court process is controlled by the court even if he wants to drop a case he has to move an application before the court and Court would appreciate all facts and circumstances and only after consing it it will pass an order similarly if a person has to become an approver it is the court which makes an approve it can only pray to the court and the court sees the various facts and as a lawyer let me tell you I have done situations like that so to cont contradict me you have got to be on very sound footing and on facts law and logic therefore to say that the BJP or Ed is controlling the court process will be amounting to defamation and contempt of God please understand that even in Sharda or take any other example you know and if the Congress has a problem please move an appropriate application in a court of law Court will hear you if you think the BJP is not filing any case resort to criminal procedure Court 1563 you can file a case and then F can be registered if the court finds you have given sufficient evidence and proof to the court please understand what you would not do so because you are on a very you know weak Wicket so therefore let us do some kind of you know debate where logic is primary and and and and the various facts and assets are also primary not hearsay no a debate on a hearsay you know will not last long the fact remains you call BJ comes they come in the BJP you call it washing machine only Court can be a washing machine BJP let me take a worst argument against the BJP that they they they are in the government they're not cooperating okay the fact remains the court supervise please understand right till the Supreme Court they supervise everything and to call it a washing machine would be I think a great disservice to the courts of this nation all right okay let's talk about Punjab now well the story in Punjab is very clear this time around it's each party for themselves while in Congress both app and Congress contested all seats and it was the BJP who was shiromani akal dal's smaller partner with the former contesting three compared to uh shiromani AAL dal's 10 this time it is a four-way fight with all four parties contesting 13 seats well uh Sumit the bharti jata party obviously has been trying to make inroads in Punjab you know the offer to have uh Captain amindra Singh also be a part of this fold did materialize in the past uh but somehow you know the Punjab voter has not gone the BJP way uh do you think that just like South India uh where the BJP has been able to crack the code to a large extent Punjab has also been sort of a curve ball for the B Jan party you see uh we need to be really honest because BJP has always been been in Alliance with the local Regional parties there and as a matter of choice and as a matter of strategy and principle it decided not to put it or make its carer on the ground that is what the potion has been you know just a few years back now after the change of strategy when the area the idea has been contemplated that we have to put the C on ground and build up organization it will take du Co some time because remember Sunil jaar is there Capel aminda sing G is there lot of leader mender sing s is there are a lot of tall leaders from all the parties have joined BJP so there is no dir of Talent on the ground yes but a cter what do you see what will what you will have in a up or what you will have in a maharash or what you will have in an MP that level of Carter does not exist in P that's a point you have to take because there were reasons for it because we don't want we did not want to build a Carter like that now with what the kind of people are seeing the kind of mismanagement by op they're seeing the kind of things which are going haway and Punjab they're seeing that Punjab is getting under more and more debt they're seeing the agriculture production is coming down they're seeing the Law and Order problems happening let me tell you one last week four major groups of Punjab went to up met Baba Yogi ADI they have committed 4,000 of investment into up leaving moving from Punjab and hero Cycles is one of them WAP group is one of them there two others I can't remember so if you see this kind of Exodus happening the people and the industry and all the Punjab are seeing that there's no future with up so with this fight I believe that the Val of the AR J party will be better than last time but will be it be a sweep State no it won't be a sweep state it will be much better than the last time because now people are really you know everybody across the look and corner of country we need people are realizing development Modi and development delivered and Modi are you know snum it's is the same thing when you vote for Modi these two things are quite naturally going to happen so if you look at these things so people of Punjab will also realize no they have to go beyond Regional politics Regional politics is good for assembly but when it comes to parliamentary elections and Punjab being a border state we have a lot of drug problem there we have a lot of interference from Pakistani isi we a lot of things which are not happening which are not right there so it is in the interest of the people of Punjab to vote for Prime Minister Modi and see how do the things change up because local leadership what has been there before sorry we they have not been able to deliver the goods it's only the BJP with it carer and with a double engine circar possibly in the future which can really which can really change over the Punjab when Punjab can become what it used to be you all the Five Rivers there you have the most fertile land there and what Punjab is going for things like UTA Punjab which is so unfortunate and so bad it's it's it's it's like a slap on my face but that is what my state is today known and because Pakistani infiltration is there drugs are there you're using drones to drop drugs free of cost you're using drones to send those weapons so things are not good in Punjab and I think the people of Punjab have to realize for the long-term development and get Punjab the stature what it used at 10 20 years back BJP is the only option and it has to it will only happen under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi they have tried everybody look except BJP they have tried everybody the question now is that is to give BJP a full mandate as BJP where BJP is calling the shots where BJP has the is is the driver seat that is what it will do and when it comes to a you know parliamentary election me what is the option to Modi there's no option to Modi who is option to Modi there's no option to Modi it's as simple as that Modi G does not have option up okay all right let's let's let's move on to Andra Pradesh now in 2019 Andra Pradesh was a sweep for the jagun moan Rd and the ysrcp winning 22 out of the 25 seats quite popular the picture this time is very very strange and different and much more challenging it seems Chandra Babu Naidu who stitched an alliance uh uh with the BJP at the center in 2019 has returned to the NDA he was in fact against the BJP in 2019 this means that while the ysrcp the TDP the Congress the BJP and the Jena contested separately in 2019 in 20124 the TDP the BJP and the janena will fight as one with TDP contesting 17 seats the BJP contesting six and the JSP contesting two the Congress under V Sharma will contest 12 seats this time Manas this is obviously a big win for the BH J party it it you know it it has been a very incisive a very ambitious uh campaign if we can call it by the B J party to get the southern states to their side and with somebody like Chandrababu Naidu who was once an anti NDA person uh this is perhaps going to be uh you know that Rubicon moment in Andra Pradesh that the BJP has been looking for I think Chandra Babu Naidu have always been successful when he's with the NDA he had National aspirations he was uh in 2019 believing that he's going to be he's going to align the oppositions together and then he'll create a image or he'll create a momentum against prime minister Narendra Modi but somehow he could not do that and and then after after leaving the leaving the NDA and trying to do something against uh NDA BJP prime minister Narendra Modi he was he was unsuccessful he lost his plank in Andhra Pradesh also so this was a natural uh step for him this shows that there are there are no friends in politics there are no enemies in politics it's all about convenience and and Chandra Babu Naidu and nitish Kumar are classic examples so wherever the power shift is going to be there or they everyone so one thing in politics is certain that you would have political larger Ambitions aspirations you would want to aim for it once you don't get it there is always a next term you can go back back to your previous alliances you can go back to your previous political party you can jump shifts now there is no ideological war so now it's all about Optics now it's all about perception in the perception so now in the political perception War Chandrababu Naidu is a is a renowned face in the politics of Andhra Pradesh is a natural Alliance of BJP BJP does not have a large scer there BJP is a kakara l political party needs a local player to get in Roots in a better format and then they fight elections in in in in regions where they don't have any presence or less presence so it's a natural selection for both of them one has a ground but does not has a space anymore other has a space but does not have a ground so it becomes a natural thing and anti-incumbency of VSR is already there uh the policies which he promised has not delivered there is no kind of natural alliance between bias and Congress going to happen if BSR and Congress come together they become the larger force in Andra Pradesh which is not happening so this gives a big Edge for NDA uh for prime minister Narendra Modi BJP and also Chandrababu naidus could be a great comeback here so this is a good optics for him I think the the key factor here is uh less of prime minister Narendra Modi and more of Chandra Babu Naidu the key factor here is him and his comeback it's about his story it's about his vote bank it's about his coming back so it's less of prime minister Narendra Modi here more of Chandra Babu n all right let's talk about Tamil Nadu now well MK Stalin has proven to be an allweather friend of the Congress having stuck with the party in 2019 and in 2024 to Mr Stalin hopes to repeat a Flawless performance of 29 with the alliance winning 38 out of 39 seats in 2019 DMK contested 20 while Congress contested 9 in 2024 the DMK will contest 21 while the Congress will contest 9 again in 2019 the BJP was Aid dmk's Junior partner only contesting five seats while the former contested 20 the BJP this time is contesting 19 under a rejuvenated leadership of Anam Malai and of course the Prime Minister their partners are pmk and ammk the aid MK on the other hand is contesting 32 seats Mr Malik how do you look at uh Tamil Nadu you know it's been a contentious state for a number of reasons you know the anti-satan dharm uh sentiment that has poured out which has obviously uh peeved a number of people from the opposition as well they have left their post including in the Congress has been a formative uh you know Manifesto in the making against the ruling dispensation of Tamil Nadu is that this is that something that the B J party can capitalize on and of course let's not forget Mr Ram lie he seems to be a force to reckon with Mr Stalin has his wife and mother who pray every day in the sonan for and his junkies and the uh pseudo rice back converts that he has are ooing out crap for a religion which has been there before even the concept of anything that they now have converted to was there so let's understand something and I'll give you another very beautiful example the same Nia in a case when it looks into the uh Bangalore blast is doing a good job when it goes and tries and find out people who are there in Karnataka to apprehend the perpet rators the minute it reaches Bengal and uh it tries to catch hold of some perpetrators who've been helped by TMC people it becomes a communal one it becomes under Modi and things like that how can you have the same coin having different values in the same Nation Under the same Alliance the same India Alliance another thing which is important which has to we understood is is it a congress government in Andra or is it a raven ready government in in Andra that question is a Paramount that's a good point that's a very good point the third most important point is that when you come to Tamil Nadu the kind of awareness there was there was a uh you know there was a whole Shad of first created that oh the north south the Arian Invasion Theory set up by the nouvian historians the Roma Tas and thean Habib kinds they set up a narrative which cannot be historically asserted which cannot be historically proved and they kept their Politics on that whereas when they start talking about the fact that the politics should be about employment Tamil Nadu is not under BJP sir what is the employment there what is the inflation there how well have you been able to set up an example they are pertinent questions same goes for Andra same goes for Kerala same goes for Karnataka these are important question right absolutely so we we have other states to cover as well we have a posi of time we're going to talk about Maharashtra quickly Maharashtra has seen the most hectic parlays out of all with the two Regional parties being divided and the BJP riding on the Modi wave while the NDA has not been able to finalize its Alliance yet the BJP has announced candidates in 20 constituencies and the shifts in are led by akat chind in eight the India Alliance has finalized its seat sharing with udav SAA fighting 21 seats and the Congress in 17 and the NCP in 10 uh Puja Tria I'll come to you well you know Maharashtra has been top seat overy it has had a very vacillating a very you know wavy kind of a commitment when it comes to politics the politics in Maharashtra has always been about party first the party identity first how do you see the congress party uh you know fitting into this this this particular grouping against the BJP who has done everything they've thrown in everything but the kitchen sink to stay in power but they have not yet finalized the seat sharing uh with their two credible opposition with the two credible Alliance Partners the one AIT withan said and then on other next day he comes into BJP and is he's their loyalist again akn shend we know that there's a power tussle between Nash faction and B J party led by D fness the the cracks are out there open while India Alliance has come to a respectable seat sharing and we are fighting with a full formidable Force I want to just point out out that uh few seconds back Mr Malik called an elected representative rice turn quot something like that and you didn't object wi it I think this no that's a fact called out that an elected representative a sitting minister of the cabinet is called a rise turn something rise back thing and he's not called out for his uh uh lack of what do you say decency to call out an elected represent R back rice back converts back convert it's my freedom of expression us is my freedom of expression you cannot take it away just sit on a panel and say to a minister you can have your differenes minister is not above and beyond every common Indian we we we also have to talk about we have to move on while in 200 19 BJP and the National Conference won three seats each in Jammu and Kashmir remember that the 2019 general elections were held before the abrogation of article 370 this time around Jammu and Kashmir is poised to be a three-way battle as the National Conference and Congress are contesting elections together on three seats each and the BJP and PDP are poised to go alone on all six seats is what we know Sumit P permutation in and combination in Jammu and Kashmir obviously are of grave importance uh you know this is a state which perhaps will also have assembly elections in September it's a director of the directive of the Supreme Court as well do you feel and do you concur that this is perhaps going to be a trailer or more or less a preamble of what's about to come when the assembly elections take place we need the first thing is after the abrogation of 370 this was a landmark decision only Prime Minister Modi and Mr Amed Sha would have the courage and political will to do it all from the you know far father sh Abdullah to far and nothing has happened 1.65 tourist all time high investment alltime High development night life is on New Year parties go up to Mid midnight in that 31st December which was unseen of terrorism is all time down so they are seeing an economic boom in jnk and especially in Kashmir so people are comparing what was the life before 370 and what is the life after 370 so more over 99% of people are confused that life after 370 has been better for them and nobody has come and taken their house nobody has come and S their land nobody has done anything so even Omar Abdullah is on record saying if you want 370 don't vote for me so I I think it was yosu I called was NC representative I told him if you want to politically retire you could think of a better line you would just say I'm retiring from politics why do you want to say this now the challenge here is we need what we see four elections have gone by including a major DDC election you have seen the results where where the swings went in if you look at the jamu region is canly peaceful if you look at a Kashmir is happy if you accept South Kashmir has some problems I have to admit South Kashmir has some problems people in ladak are happy the development is Happy ladak are happy people you cannot say you cannot sayuk represents soluk doesn't represent represents are happy development has happened in ladak see the tourism I don't know who is he running it's not about one person who agenda is he running not about that ofad and you're Sayad is Happy 90% of the money used to go to Kashmir to jamu and 2% toad 2% to National TV have you discussed lad on national TV okay let's not scream let's not scream let's Sumit Sumit Sumit let us let us not raise our voice let us Su let us let us not raise our voice it's all right okay Dr Puja let him finish his point I promise you I'll come back to you for a rebuttal Sumit quickly we've run out of time as well Point here is that the things are happening and you will see Jammu BJP you'll see some significant grounds in Kashmir you will see the people of Kashmir are gaining and when the assembly elections will happen whenever the situation is there and we have to look at political geopolitical and the security point of view you will see emergence of new leaders people like bti Omar Abdullah those gulam Ahmad sha and even from apni party and I don't see a great future for gulam aad as well and new breed of leadership will come which will take Kashmir to NE okay all right Dr puati Dr Puja go ahead now just uh well Kashmir has become a a beautiful uh State I wanted to just ask him what's happening with ladak if even if Sol beat any AB CD person of ladak what is their demand they are not de they are not doing doing any uh unto demand what are they asking they're asking for restoration of the Pastoral lands and government is not ready is Sonam vuk less of an Indian than Su and Puja Tria no a are the thousand ladis that are protesting along with Sonam wangu demanding restoration of their pastoral lands demanding India stand on China's aggression are less of an Indian than me and you no then when you say that Sonam wuk is not lad Sonam wuk forget Sonam wuk thousand people of with thousand lakis are protesting out and open at minus degree temperatures asking for full stateful which for which was their promise after the application of article 37 and you just can't see and sonak doesn't represent in lad every person who lives in this country we've run out of time Dr Puja as promised I gave you an opportunity to speak uh and and that's exactly why I said you know it's not lopsided you got to make your point but what's important is that we got a lot of information and we were able to talk about all the important States and the permutation and combination and weigh in on what kind of chances each of these parties have when the elections begin in just a few days from now we dip into a short break we'll be right back [Music]

Channel: Newsx Live

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Length: 56min 40sec (3400 seconds)

Published: Fri Apr 12 2024