INDIA CHINA - COLD PEACE OR COLD WAR ? / LT GEN ATA HASNAIN (R)/LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)

good evening and welcome to Gar [Music] sh think once again uh you with me General hn Sir good evening and welcome to you and uh today we're going to talk of a very important topic which you had written about um you know as you rightly said our prime minister had given a very important uh you know interview with the Newsweek where he had indicated certain uh you know overtures to if I may say to China and it somehow never caught anyone's imagination like you rightly mentioned in your article and then I've been analyzing this whole story otherwise from a different point of view because I've been studying China intimately I felt that India and China are getting into uh some kind of a cold war kind of a situation now to put things in perspective and then uh you know hand it over to you I've always felt sorry yeah I've always felt that the four states which you could two countries could be hot War cold war or a hot peace and cold peace hot pie is something like what we were during the Eastern ladak situation where are we today are we in a cold war or in are we heading into a cold peace definitely not in a peaceful situation but somewhere there now it is in this that article had come out and this is the reaction of the global times right and he's you know two articles where he says Modi urges to urgently address prolonged situation on borders with China and then a positive thing modi's remark on China India relations are thought provoking and this is a global times editorial I've just shown you the headlines but promptly the very next day South China Morning Post comes up and says China India border conflict not the entirety of relations steady ties benefit both where they've gone back to the traditional thing that look the Border can take a back seat the other things have to come forward right it's a some kind of a hot and cold uh reaction and then of course uh New York Times came out with this Edition China had a special place in modi's heart now it's a Thor in his side so you see this thing between cold peace and a cold war somewhere there and I we'll come to this a little later with this is a background and your wonderful article which you written and lack of discussion in the Strategic circles I think we this needs to be discussed whether we are in a cold peace or a cold war but I'd like to hear your views first on this whole thing and your background and then we'll discuss it all yours J thank you thank you J Shankar that was very interesting and I'm very happy that uh this subject is being touched upon because as you just said yourself interv prime minister or news week news week is a internationally such an important I was surprised actually uh most people seem to have taken it upon themselves India and China are just made to be enemies right adversary I have always felt or China I took it upon so I looked it upon in this way 2014e ministeri background positive about China China and he had had a very positive kind of response from there prime minister head of government it was a natural thing that he approached this whole issue with a sense of uh positivity ging resp Chinese someing let's resolve the Border we've had so many rounds of talks but this thing has been going on for many many years it was now very clear the Chinese were getting into a trap you have an Indian Prime Minister here forthcoming bold in his approach and wanting peace and the Chinese were feeling very awkward about embarass virtually out of context primarily potential super message of caution America Japan this was the messaging which was given out I think the Prime Minister was very sensible prime minister positive Mage say now China having experienced full for year diplomacy there that realiz it has not been successful at all realize that India they have actually h India they have got India gingered up into a military situation in which they are making progress they're willing to devote much more resources to their Armed Forces Etc and this can go out of hand completely I have been one of poti forace Waring a potential peace there will be a an era a period of Cold War Cold War already actually in a way or nor South equations North Korea Russia China Iran American Lea equation to there's nothing certain yet period of War peace I would say more more tending towards cold peace Define he has taken the right step this is just the [Music] peripherals we may not read too much into it but at the same time if you don't read anything into it I respect yeah I I think so sir it is it is not as for the normal which has gone in the past four years it's a little out of the uh you know I would say the normal it's a little out of syllabus what the Prime Minister has done he's given an indication that look we there could be a th right and at a point of time when we are under elections and that's interesting you see the point is is given it at a time when our elections are underway and is probably signaling to China that is there a new start once the elections are over and the new government comes whichever government comes it's for China to ponder right the response from the global times was quite positive but immediately after that like I said the sou China Morning Post went back to its old story and New York Times came out with its story which ulates the whole thing now let's look at the some of the drivers which I had identified and a few issues of our relationship which Drive the Cold War cold peace whatever you call it right and this is what it is you know when you look at the drivers of India China Cold War there's a traditional view in you know China that India does not count there's a fact of Unwin ability of kinetic wars in the Himalayas which you also said and the Border issue has been a main driver between our relations Frozen relations if MSA the new factor which is coming in is India's growth is at China's cost ever since 2020 this has been the story and then there is this Chinese ambition of being a global Regional and actor in the Indian Ocean region it encroaches India Indian space one on one issue and it is also getting inhibited by India's rise because as India Rises the overall space Also is getting you know for Global governance is getting impacted then there's this us Russia factor and which way does China look at this whole story and which way India does look at the whole story now let me amplify this for one minute sir the Chinese feel aggrieved of how the US treats Chinese as far as their relationship with Russia is concerned and they feel even more agreed that India has even better relations with Russia but is not penalized by USA and India is allowed to do what it wants so that factor has does play then of course Pakistan and China impinging into our neighborhood and then the Chinese nuclear expansion which is taking place these I thought were the drivers of uh the China India Cold War I'd request your views on it because and amplify your things and your thought process these are just pointers right uh how I look at it your views thank you broader explanation and nothing more what actually sums up this entire thing is this issue of rising Indian confidence strategic confidence economic rise which took place earlier as you are all aware but 2014 new found strategic confidence was something missing in our system all these years all these thoughts have always been in our minds in the armed forces mostly is after 2014 that in a matter of 5 six years combination of factors for example the H in which do was handled B decisions decision surgical strikes of balak strikes Chang the um game complete game in in from a strategic angle India was changing strategically it was regaining a gaining a new confidence I think whatever happened in this period of 2020 2023 particularly uh was China's response at the time of covid Co was just a period perhaps China thought that they could take advantage of but I don't think they thought through this okay India is not a competent kind of a a nation competent enough to be a part of strategic International strategic equations as such I think they are now realizing it will go up higher and there is nothing to prevent India from rising therefore this slight Jing kind of a response which the which the global times game subsequently the rest of the media has not taken it up on so passionately but can I have the the slide again so I just want to see yeah yeah yeah yeah why not why not sure sure us will also impose sanctions on India China China is extremely careful about giving any military W with all to Russia because it knows the sanctions on China us sanctions and Western sanctions on China will have a paralyzing effect of the Chinese economy in the straight that it is today right automatically India's strategic importance has has gone up also because of that Pakistan is not a very major factor here but of course it does play a role in Sino indan relations it's a balancing Force somewhere or the other on the side on on China's side and militarily strategically does play off L late because of it own economy and things like that but Pakistan will always remain relevant to this Ukrainian situation mayak amunition uk600 million neighborhood this is something we will have to live with it India will Chinese will continue pestering us uh sort of pressurizing us on because they feel this is India's accus heala Bangladesh Nepal Maldives Sri Lanka complete circle famous what was called The String of Pearls at one time and thenia does not have that you know we get sort of restricted to our regional neighborhood only and we don't look outwards Beyond so much at that time that's a means of coercion a means of of pressurizing India nothing more than that this is just a beginning that has happened it's a very good I do not have a negativity about relations with China because I do feel it should be we should forget it but be mentally prepared be physically prepared at all times every nation needs a security that has to be done no one under no circumstances should we dilute ourselves on that but the future of Indian growth is very largely contingent upon our relationship with China and that relationship is something that we should maintain yeah uh so I just want to highlight the US China relationship it's a very important Point Hal secretary blinkin has gone to you know China he met it it's just going back in fact it's almost on the thing and what the secretary lincol has you know put down conditions one of the major conditions he's put down is if you want normal relations stop uh you know support to China support to Russia now that is hitting CH badly but the larger issue is what you said a little later if China wants to grow or expand or do anything it has to depend on us us consumption if the US market is denied to China China is suffering and to highlight it I would like to China Mexico is under NAFTA with you know USA area to access us markets so if anyone of us think that China has got tremendous amount of power I think we are wrong way of looking at it today I feel that China needs USA more than USA needs China that's where it is I just thought I'll highlight what you said okay now I've got a second set of points which I thought I'll put Flash and you know highlight to you when you look at the Cold War construct of the earlier time what was it it was all about geopolitical tension because there were Global geopolitical tensions uh we had the global I mean cold war then today also there something similar exist in the form of Ukraine Gaza South China there's also an ideological struggle between the two of us democracy versus communism and if you see the Articles which are coming out from South China m morning post I'll just show them after this you see how they're taking pot shots at India almost every second day then there's a issue of uh Regional influence uh influence and as being Asia centc nuclear arms and there's something again which they have commented on increase military deployment Maritime contestation in the Indian Ocean region and in the Western Pacific that earlier map right map as much as China is having an Outreach into India India is also having an Outreach in the Western Pacific something which we have not you know off late we don't focus on it whether it's with South Korea Japan Taiwan Philippines or Vietnam it is no more that String of Pearls that only it's a oneway story and in places like Russia Afghanistan and Iran we are on a common ground we contesting each other we're contesting for strategic space there whether we I mean whether someone accepts it or not but that's a reality then of course there are Partnerships as you rightly said there's a partnership the northern Partnership of Russia China Iraq no not Iran and to some extent uh North Korea which is in the forming it's a little lazy but it's there but there is called on the other side and then there's a constant effort of China to contain India through Pakistan and through Nepal through Bangladesh and myar then P CH collusion and of course there's a lot of propaganda and information War you just look at this I mean I just go through the headlines of the South China Morning Post all these headlines have come out after the prime minister's interview and their response they're talking of Tik Tok and then they're looking at why India should soon Dethrone China as the world's top consumer Market they're worried about our rise which you rightly said right and this is something which we've already Deon them from bring the biggest population so the next thing is the consumer market and our is a consumer economy and they are struggling for consumption okay and then they feel that us India ties are bound by shared interest and they won't be mared by recent incidents us then of course they have these spot shots whether there are doubts and they express doubts whether India will become a developed economy by 20147 that vixit bat which we are talking of this is something which came out today it says increased nuclearization from West Asia to North Korea they've spoken about us us versus China Israel versus Iran India versus Pakistan but what they've underplayed and not spoken of is inherent in all this there is a India China nuclear competition on and especially when China is expanding its nuclear Arsenal right it is already there and then they keep saying that China can teach India lessons as if they the bigger power and then of course they talk of males and things like that if you see while there is this effort by our prime minister to reach out to China in some manner it's it might be small but it is significant and it's come after four years which you rightly said and that to from The Head of the State there has to be a response from that side after the initial response from the global times the rest of the response and all those points which I showed look as if we are going further into the cold war and not coming to a solution your views on this and then we'll see how do we get there interesting for exampleone Warfare don't commit yourself to a definite line of strategic thinking at all impose on your on your adversaries all your adversaries a a hot and cold in terms of what messaging that you are doing to them doubt interational leaders statement come out of the blue uh Mr Modi could have also been negative uh because more most of China and prime minister himself could have been negative but he did not choose to do it he chose to put in a positive uh thought process into it and await responses anticipated the government the current government will come back into power they want to make an early beginning on the issue of China India is a mix with or a developed country Etc then time is not on our side we need we need a relative period of stability so I think uh much like what Prime Minister Modi did in 2014 then he went a little more proactive against against Pakistan similarly 2019 immediately fifth of August decision Kashmir in the beginning the early part of his government that that is the style of the Prime Minister perhaps or emphasis because if we return back to some kind of a cooperation with China definitely the path to 20147 is going to be clearer to us so I think this is something Prime Minister Modi response negative cold and it will take the better part of 6 months before it comes eluk American shift towards indopacific which is impending for some time now that shift will also take place for all this India must be prepared and steps proactive statement prime minister is also coming down to the aspect China media you know we are all aware of the three Warfare strategy this whole issue of cyber legal and media media is a very important tool for them and through media they like to talk down bat child to cow us down in our thinking overall Indian media respond responds very awkwardly and our leadership does not really know how to install or we should be a little more proactive about it and not be led into traps because years some traps around us to sort of you know tie us down in our strategic thinking overall Time Has Come For A much clearer strategic environment that India want to look at and our thinking must be accordingly matching right sir I I also agree with you completely that uh if we have to rise and continue our rise unimpeded we have to get China off our backs if not China off our backs at least we need to have peace on the Chinese border and some modicum some of modus Wendi with China so that they go their way we go our way we have no issues with them and that's the way forward well be that as it may uh and you WR that that is our you know at least the mid mid midterm Outlook which we should have longterm we'll see and like you rightly said every time our prime minister in the first initial part of his uh tenure he did it in the last two Ten Years also a new initiative he started and this is the the pre initiative of that whole story that is reaching out to China what do you think should be the response of the Indian strategic Community because I think the Indian strategic Community the Indian media and everyone we need to come up to speed on the way we looked at these strategic issues and I'll tell you why because most of the time in fact most of the questions which I keep getting on this show is when will China attack us how will China attack us do we have enough troops to Ward them off will you know china such a big economy can we handle them for some reason I feel that though we have gained a lot of strategic confidence post 2020 and our rise there is a certain amount of hesitancy on the part of our political leadership as also our military leadership to take it to the next level how do you get over this and and I'm not looking at a political military bureaucratic Fusion because that's I think is the Cornerstone of our going up and of course your media and all that I think we need to look forward your views on this actually this is the whole gamut of Hino Indian relations let's try I'll try and put it together yeah yes few words not too much small small Point small points you see uh it is inevitable The Hangover of 1962 continues despite the fact that we always quote how quickly in 1967 we overcame it 1986 and from the wrong true we overcame it it never came down to actual War fighting barely saying so that a little bit of a thing chip on our shoulder continues to remain there uh it happens with the best of Nations we have overcome our a symmetry to a very large extent if you ready look at it uh capability wise uh although here and there there is a lot of asymmetry no doubt about it but Assurance of venil is not there for the with the Chinese that should be very very clear I think the International Community also generally recognizes it we should not hesitate to allocate more and more resources uh to the Strategic sector in terms of whatever nuclearization Technologies better infrastructure uh better uh or bats whatever we have for structuring we need to ensure that we don't hold back on this because this is going to be the strength we are not looking at deterrence we are looking at capability development basically to send home a clear message right uh I don't count this as pure deterr deterrence is a more of a you know offensive I look at it this way right so and in terms of strategic thinking there's been a sea change since over the last 20 years I'd say uh we have a lot of China experts today A lot of people are looking very deeply into it in fact Pakistan is a virtual forgotten story once in a while you and I keep Reviving it to make sure that our you know tentacles are still out but it's the Chinese front that we continue to look at uh I'm not sure if the understanding political understand in the political circles I'm actually surprised many times when I do interact with some senior people of the political leadership ET so their understanding is very good there needs to be a greater synchronization perhaps between the military leadership and the political leadership in his overall understanding because that commonality of thinking the way the thinking is about Pakistan the similar thinking should exist about China and we should be upfront to it in any meeting that we have with political leaderships with bureaucracy Etc to tell them that our capability ultimately is what will dictate right therefore if you hold back on resources if you hold back on budgeting then we are not we are not going to arrive there right this is a very important part of making sure that this Fusion that we talk about in most of our programs we've been talking about the the military civil bureaucracy political leadership which must happen this is the essentiality in it to to get the thinking correct once that happens then you find the right statements in the media Etc and the Indian media must be brought on board to speak more maturely you see um I agree we are not a communist country we are we are we are a democracy and democracies media are free to speak is not like the global times or something like that but I personally feel and particular Electronic media we need to be a little more uh should I say drawn down on this until until we are really in that position where we can talk much more proactively right in writing I think the print media has done a very good job of messaging the Indian strategic messaging which is required but this uh jingoism which is there in the Indian Electronic media that unfor and the Chinese are themselves pointing it out to us many many times whoever I have met from China they do point out this aspect to to us so if you have to look at potential friendship even a period of cold peace Cold War Etc which will set the stage for the future as such I I think on all these fronts we need a little proactivity to change our minds and thinking yeah I I think so sir and I think one more more aspect where we need to rev up is our think tanks we don't have enough think tanks which talk of China which read China which discuss China and which you know uh talk a lot about China with depth with their understanding uh which I'm actually to be very honest a little disappointed I'll give you a example recently uh China made a big reform or rather they announced it as a big reform of their information support Force which just made into you know Force independent arm and I heard a lot of our senior officers in Delhi talking oh this needs to be analyzed they have done something great a all that and I was a little and there were a lot of strategic thinkers around and they all said oh this is something which you know China keeps doing and all that and I was astounded for the simple reason that one studies this whole story the information support Force always existed as part of the pla uh strategic support force it was part of it what they've done is just split it into three and we and such trepidation of something new with China has done comes out of lack of knowledge about China and that is what actually worries me how do you get out of this trap with our own think tanks and people uh talking about China or not talking about China are we are we are we first of all focusing sufficiently on China I think uh 2 doam and 2020 both triggered off brief periods in which U these things were spoken about more research work I've been personally involved with some writing Work Ministries Etc uh analyzing deeply looking at these aspects with China Etc I'm not a China scholar myself at all but I've been forced to read a lot uh off late I think uh it will take a little more time our thinking and reading on Pakistan was also if you remember not very intense uh in the Indian Armed Forces there is a sea change taking place today where a tremendous amount of interest in strategic reading and thinking Etc has started emerging but the problem is these are all oneoff seminars you attend and frankly saying most of these seminars Jan Shankar you you and I will probably both agree on this that these seminars achieve very little they are mostly devoted to first three hours of uh um catering to VIP requirements Etc and then the rest of the day is wasted with a few sprinkling of officers and people from somewhere and fillers lot of people filling up the gaps there this is not how this is not how we can enhance our strategic thinking we got to take it down to the academy level and a lot of people debate with me and say Academy you only need to teach them sublevel tactics and nothing else I say no that's the place where you have to start making them think that they are Beyond everyone else they are the people who can fight Wars on the ground and they are the ones who can wield their pens and research look at technology with equal ease everywhere it is from there that the Strategic culture will rise it will take a fair amount of time we can keep doing this bits and pieces of plastering here and there picking up some experts uh within Academia even within Academia there are very very restricted number of people who can actually give you an an opinion which is highly strategic in need even if you ask military people their opinion will be only militaristic very very little bit on which is holistically strategic as such so I I do think from an intellectual angle we are still quite far from it and uh we need to put much more pressure we need to put much more emphasis on this uh as a whole this is something for the leaderships of the three armed forces to look at very very seriously yeah I think so sir it's not only the leadership of the Armed Forces I think even the political leadership has to think very seriously you see so I mean I just want to share this with all of you other day I got a comment to say that YouTube is the new TV people don't watch the TV people watch YouTube and it is a YouTube that lot of think tanks I see foreign think tanks are giving their analysis about China I'm I'm just talking China specific but I don't see enough Indian YouTubers Indian think tanks on the YouTube and if they do come it is not followed and in fact it is only for this reason that on gunar shot every second uh day I talk of China know in some form or the other like yesterday day before yesterday I did speak of China and I did speak of the topic we are discussing India and China Cold War and how we are this thing and today we discussing it again from a different Viewpoint so that people get two three viewpoints on this business of cold war or no cold war or whatever it is and I feel that we need to do more on this issue and I have no doubt about it okay uh so with this I have generally finished with what I had to cover if you have anything else to say or talk off on this business of cold war or cold piece and what it is fine otherwise it'll take a few questions I think I think there are some very good questions waiting I can see them in the in the comments section so take question yeah uh yeah he says sir would you say that instead of cold peace or cold war we are actually seeing a ww warm War as I call it because things are gradually heating warming up everywhere mine is the war generation yours is not the please please I differ with you yours is not the war these wars you're seeing in in you know Gaza or Ukraine Etc are not these are not Wars which affecting the whole world as such I mean I I reserve my commments on that but the point is the world is increasingly more conscious of the Need For Peace because you see we all realize the moment something happens in a in a networked World in a in a flat world everyone gets affected with what's happened in Gaza you are saying something happens between Iran and Israel the next next time probably you will find prices of energy going shooting beyond anything what you can even contemplate so I do think this everyone is conscious of this and being very careful about it right uh a gesture such as what our prime minister has just made made I think uh is more in the REM of looking at reality you see uh it takes a lot for a leader of a Nation as large as ours and an emerging important Nation as ours to make the same effort all over again in 2014 onwards he started with a brave effort to find peace with China China sort of made gave a stab in the back to India to go back again and do it I think it needs it needs courage it needs tremendous courage to do it let's back the Prime Minister on this let's believe him I think because uh I think I think what he is saying and what he's attempting to do is the right thing at this time the Chinese may not respond with but eventually they too will realize it yeah I think so sir because it it it takes a lot of political courage political courage not normal courage political courage and investment to make such a statement it's not easy uh he says cold war is war via proxy means Cuba Korea Vietnam Congo Chile Angola Etc are the Nations where these wars were fought indirectly by Soviet and us what I feel he says is look today is not a cold war in that classic sense but my view sir and I'll seek your views after that is today's the whole definition of Cold War is changed the we are looking at a multi-domain system where you're going to things don't operate in one domain only and like I showed that map earlier which you know we there's an Outreach both ways right across the IND Indonesian by China and Across the Western Pacific by India so we have to start looking at this whole story a little differently so your take on this because I think this is a fundamental question which he's throwing at us you are right Cold War I mean we fought the we saw the Cold War from 1946 to 1991 45 years of it and I very correctly identified as Mr auu has just done proxies in different parts of the world the whole of Africa we saw Civil Wars all over Africa which we taking place the time the Cold War ended uh and the the the International System had a sense of strategic balance because the Cold War also existed at that time the two polls balanced each other and the moment that fell apart you found these wars in uh in in Africa etc etc took off for some time before eventually they subsided now this in this particular period actually we are looking at not a unipolar world actually we are looking at a emerging multi-polar world and there are going to be multiple interests of these multiple Nations among them China Russia of course economically Russia does not sort of match that but China Russia the United States the European Union India Japan they're going to make these are the countries which are going to make difference in the future uh relationships between them in this period are going to continue remaining primarily in the mode of testing each other and as I said blocks Big Blocks so the next Cold War could possibly be one block the blocks that we identified justan Shankar and myself we identified it could be that or it could also be actually what a lot of people talk about civiliz Iz ational aspects you know we still haven't resolved the problem of global Terror we haven't resolved the problem of Islamic radicalism that's another area which is waiting to explode if it happens so otherwise so there are it's not just a simple Cold War of Communism sorry against against the Democratic U you know the Christian Western democratic system system which existed for those 45 years is not just that it is this time it is multiple conflicts between nations which are emerging and therefore the unpredictability part of it is much much higher it's not just this aspect of proxy uh of course proxies will continue in different ways the manner in the wars will be fought in in in in the Middle East will probably have a lot of proxies being fought between different countries what will happen in Southeast Asia could similarly be there I don't see any Clarity emerging in this in the manner in which that bipolar Cold War took place in those 45 years this is going to be a much more complex Cold War because ideologies themselves are not important here there is much more about economic gains strategic gains related to it yeah right sir uh there two questions on trust I'll put it together whichever way we look at it at China it is predatory and given opportunity has always tapped Barat in the back present border situation does not elicit confidence your views the next thing is how to trust China why should we trust China at all after the Mal Saga so it's a issue of trust and the lack of trust between China and India especially after the fact that not only 62 they stapped this in the back they repeated it 2017 and 2020 how do we trust them that's the larger question sir very good question put together also together that makes makes a lot of sense and we started our whole discussion on the basis of the trust deficit that we were talking about how does therefore one build trust which should be a natural question actually here very difficult it's not going to be easy at all we are not looking at a period of 2 3 four 5 years is going to be baby steps and a lot of give and take uh you saw what happened after the Cold War uh the United States and Russia initially seem to be on a reasonably good footing in terms of trust at that particular time the United States helped Russia recover much of its economy in many ways of course the Americans also benefited hugely from that but uh at the end of the day you saw that Eastward March which continu towards the near abroad region of Russia that is something on which the the Americans and NATO did not compromise and that is what finally led to the Ukraine war so while you are promoting each other's interests there will inevitably be a a second kind of a uh parallel rail which will be going on which your strategic relationship will be managed that's a very difficult call very difficult call between nations who have fought Wars one of the few places where things have been really set right and I really sometimes Marvel at them is the Egyptian Israeli uh equation the Egyptians uh have really found Ways by making sure that their thinking turned positive otherwise with what is happening in Gaza today and things that Egypt was the first country to be embroided in this it didn't happen right when you got your longterm interest very clear when you are very clear that you want to benefit your people right you want to deliver to your people at the end of it War fighting should be the last thing which should come to your mind War fighting for the purpose of resources ET no cooperation for resources is far far better it's surprising that soldiers speak this we are soldiers who speak this we realize it that war fighting are are is meant for extreme situations the second thing which gives you confidence sometimes is the Chinese do this as a sham act they they have a tendency to show bravado doing this thing of bringing in troops into e suddenly doing a walk in operation somewhere here doing a transgression in some place like that they're all a part of uh you know muscularity and uh they feel very happy that India does not respond to that right if we start responding in equal measure completely in equal measure I can assure you whatever little trust there is which exist at the moment that will vanish completely and we will be enemies forever we are at the moment also adversities we are not friends we are adversities in fact the biggest problem of the India China relationship is that it's not clear whether we are friends adversaries Partners or collaborators do we collaborate with each other what are we I think it's best left to the gray leave it to the gray yeah the moment you try starting to Define you know this is how relationship should be Etc we'll we you know circles around ourselves the Chinese like to leave it like this Chinese are are gy Zone people let's deal with them in that yeah yeah I I I think so we have to get this slide back to understand we are somewhere in between we are neither there's a hot War nor neither there's a hot piece neither there a Cold War nor a cold piece we are somewhere in between hanging around arrow is a spinning arrow is spinning spinning the arrow is spinning most of the time it is not not stable and we have to be alive to the situation at every point of time and see if you can look ahead and then make things happen for yourself if we give too much to the Chinese we will lose if we don't give too much to the Chinese also we will lose we have to have that confidence to be able to judge Chinese and place them where they are and handle them accordingly right so there's a different kind of a question he says China says USA should back off that's what is the recent talk between Zin ping and blink there is space for two superpowers we can can we trust USA considering they have inconfidentes stagnating is subjective because economies of USA it varies by 2 three months it's not a big deal for me but the first Factor Trust of CH USA is the bigger issue which we need to talk of that's that's the main issue that's the main issue that aspect of trust with the USA if you talk of trust with China why not talk about trust with the United States of America too um relationships are not just built on good receptions on national days and things like that okay you may see a lot of hugs taking place Place exchanges of flags and things like that uh diasporas ex existing there also is definitely a Rel indicator of a certain amount of trust Etc but at the end of the day interest National interest always play Supreme they that is what is supreme we have seen it in the case of Pakistan us relations or us Pakistan relations right every time that um you know the US has sort of backed off from Pakistan is come back after some time some of that's because of the GE strategic location also is come back in marbly a front from from the status of a Frontline State diluted suddenly and then return again when things have happened so it's been a Meandering Dynamic kind of a relationship between the United States and Pakistan too our relationship through the' 60s '70s and ' 80s was a was always in doubt I mean the the the Americans were very peeved with us because of our very very independent way of looking at things right and our uh and their inability to break into our Stranglehold you know into our systems as such they somehow never liked our sense of independent thinking nonalignment and things like that of that period today our relationship is very good because of mutual interest and this is what always happens in international relations Mutual relationships existence of diaspora um you know the aspect of arms and um and and Technologies technology exchanges and things like that which has all added to it tomorrow let's say we find peace with China can the strength of this relationship remain the same if there's a transformational relationship built up with China let's say hypothetically can this relationship exist with with the United States well so so far so far in the last couple of two three years they've shown that India can remain somewhere midway between Russia and the United States right they have they have convincingly trusted Us in this but I not sure that if a wholesale change of strategic balance takes place I'm not sure if the United States would be is so happy about it and would trust India to to retain and continue with that kind of a relationship with China they would be a dilion in the Indo us relationship so ultimately it all comes down to National interest ultimately it's that yeah so okay uh okay the next question which is very interesting it's a criticism on the army officers but I'll still take it why are there so many unfit senior people in our army when we see them on TV it really disappoints me uh I'll take this not from the physical fit unfitness point of view I I I'll look at it from the fact that maybe what they see on say on TV sounds a little disappointing but I'll also put it in context that when you go to the TV and I'm asking you because you've been on TV quite a few times and I think you were the best person to put it on in perspective when you go on TV in a panel of five to six invariably there's a lot of tutum and the real subject gets sidetracked and the army officer or the retired army officer the veteran who goes there hardly gets barely gets some space to talk unless it's a few people like you so I think you to put this whole perception of this gentleman in the right frame so your your take I'm not sure whether Mr kaker is talking about physical fitness or he's talking about intellectual Fitness right I think he intellectual I presume it's intellectual and yes you've raised a very very good question if you have raised that issue because um the physical fitness part of it we can keep commenting and that's an individual thing right but taking the system as such yes a lot of people tell me that uh they are very disappointed with people who come on television the kind of things they speak Etc I my take is television channels primarily work on provocation they provoke you right and if you get if you are willing to go go there every day putting on your medals and your cap ET I don't know why people put on their medals and their caps at all first of all uh they go there get and then are ready to get provoked right when they see two politicians speaking in loud terms Etc they also start speaking in similar terms right it's it's awkward what you got to remember is what is your background how have you been brought up who is observing you the very same officers who you commanded are observing you today right if you can't hold your own in a intellectual discussion intellectually if you can't hold your own there's no reason for you to go there I I I follow certain principles when someone Rings me up and I can't go I'm not in a position to go I've got some work outside or maybe a social engagement Etc I have got a set of people J Shankar has just experienced it the other day I just rang up one channel to say please get back to JN Shankar right because I know who will speak sense there so I make sure that I recommend the right people to go right secondly you know in the most of the chall that I said provocation is the problem speak minimal make a reputation around yourself make a reputation to say that you cannot be provoked and secondly that you will not handle political questions I have never commented politically you ask me a strategic question you ask me something related to the Armed Forces you relate ask me anything on geopolitics of the world including Indian policy toward it I'll will speak about but I'm not going to speak politics here that's not how we were brought up with the Armed Forces right we we were very clear what we spoke at the dining table in the mess also be very very clear about so if the if you are if these principles are dear to you and is you are only looking for popularity through what the awkward statements that you make then please continue to do so and unfortunately you'll only cut a sorry figure the last part if you don't have expertise on that subject don't go there do you find me coming and speaking about economics I don't know economics too well I don't go and speak there with J Shankar I discussed Pakistan I discussed Middle East that I know Middle East very well I discussed China that's the subject which I love to study I love to discuss political Islam radicalism Global Terror Etc these are subjects in which we have been steeped right but out of the blue you are your orientation is completely China based and suddenly out of the blue you start talking about the maritime zone of which you know nothing obviously you you cut a sorry figure so therefore this is my advice to a lot of people a lot of people who are you know coming into this into this whole gamut of TV talks analysis Etc that's the way to do it yeah yeah so the last question I'll take and after that it's an interesting question but uh it's it so you said China is expanding its n nuclear Arsenal and letting the world know it publicly yes it is they all publicly stated that you know we're going to take it up to thousand Warheads question is Barat in reply expanding our nucle nuclear Arsenal for par versus China and Park two uh so before I like your comment but I'll make a statement of fact look we don't need parity parity is never an answer in the nuclear equation the second thing is you don't have to always advertise that you're going to increase your nuclear arsenal we recently fired an AG with mirv the moment you have AG with mrv it has to have a warhead if it has to have a warhead it will have a nuclear warhead mrvs are all nuclear warhe automatically it is increased it is a logical stepbystep process so this is the thing so your views and after that we'll this the last question I think I think I have always maintained this that uh bragging and talking about nuclear capability nuclear resources Etc is the I I don't think it's in the realm of reality that people maure people ever talk about it these are not weapons of war fighting we are all aware these are weapons of deterrence uh if you have got 100 warheads and I've got 10 I assure you there is reasonable parity very correctly said by J shanka just now you don't have to compare I got 91 and you got 100 and therefore I'm more powerful or less powerful no throwing one nuclear weapon at the other will take a decision which is left to the gods that is the kind of decision which will happen and then I assure you either we looking at nuclear winter where you find a complete massive retaliation or a measured one right so no one needs to talk about this I think even China is being very awkward talking about I think that they're trying to send home a message to the Americans right that uh you know don't consider that Russia's Arsenal is very very archaic and things like that we we to have it and we have so many so many Warheads available with us that they're trying to do that eventually eventually Whoever has got nuclear weapons has got a certain certain capability right you saw what the pakistanis achieved from 1974 till 1998 24 years of keeping the Zone the the whole thing in the gray do we have it no we don't have it yes we have it we haven't got it it carried on for 24 years until finally in 1998 the thing went became transparent right so the whole gamut of nuclear warfare nuclear capability Etc then you do not have to spell it out in black and white terms to show your power I think the Chinese will probably accept and agree with us that this is an aspect of strategic immaturity yeah I think so sir we'll call it the day here I thought we had uh some good conversation we went into things which you know are future and we have given a lot of foot for thought for how we need to handle India China relations in the future right and I see more of such talk coming up up ahead because times are changing governments are changing and this is the year of Elections it is not only in India it's also going to take place in USA and a whole lot of other places places like Taiwan already has taken place next week the new president of Taiwan is going to take over so a lot of equations are changing globally so I think we are in for interesting times and Sir thanks a lot for your you know the expose on this and I think you gave very good insight into how we should handle our future thanks a lot and I thought the questions also were very good final words and then we'll we'll say J your final words and we'll say J thank thank you once again for conducting this program because and to all our viewers also thank you for being there u i i my personal thing is I have I have no political orientation but I strongly feel that uhu messaging this is something which Prime Minister Modi has very well understood the the power of communication the power of communication strategy one doesn't make one doesn't give uh messages at that level of government or that level of leadership without a subtle meaning in it and these messages need to be picked up adequately to be understood I thought what had happened in this case was that this very important message had not been adequately picked up and looked at either by the International Community or by the Indian strategic Community the New York Times to my mind I think came out with their statements even after I had published My article so I'm I'm glad that you chose to have this this program because this sends across a larger understanding of strategic Jour uh thanks a lot sir thanks for everyone who's watched this good evening and Jin to all of you uh tomorrow we'll come and talk of something completely new and different sir good evening sir

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Id: LlHS6K9mON0

Length: 72min 28sec (4348 seconds)

Published: Mon Apr 29 2024